When Caps Goalies Get Red Hot
by J.P. on Feb 8, 2010 2:30 PM EST
145 comments
With yesterday's 5-4 win over Pittsburgh, Jose Theodore ran his personal win streak to a career-best ten games, including victories in each of his last nine starts. (The first win in the streak came in relief of Michal Neuvirth in Florida.) Theodore also tied Pat Riggin for the longest winning streak in franchise history, a mark set 26 years ago.
Theodore's run isn't even the first nine-start win streak by a Caps goalie in the past two calendar years, though, as Cristobal Huet ended the 2007-08 regular season a perfect 9-0-0. Here's a look at the numbers for each goalie over the course of his streak:
Huet was an absolute brick wall during his streak. But how much more impressive was he?
Take a look at the shot totals - Huet faced just 25.7 shots-per-sixty-minutes playing behind a team that knew it couldn't afford to lose even a single game and played with the kind of defensive commitment we haven't seen often in the Bruce Boudreau era. Theodore, on the other hand, has been asked to stop 35.3 shots-per-sixty on a team that's playing under different pressures and coasting to victories. Theo has made 40 saves twice during the streak and 30 saves another four times; Huet only had one 30-save effort during his run.
Another point of difference is in team discipline - Huet's Caps were only shorthanded 3.8 times per game during the netminder's win streak, while Theodore has been faced with 5.2 power plays per game during his, four time being tasked with killing off six or more penalty kills in a game, something Huet didn't have to do even once.
Here's one stat that tells you everything you need to know about Theo's run - of the 23 goals he's allowed, only four have come in the third period (Huet, for what it's worth, allowed just two third-period tallies during his streak). Jose Theodore is getting the job done, often bailing his team out and holding the fort down to allow the 18 guys in front of him the chance to do what it does best - score goals (one needs look no further than his constant denial of what would have no doubt been a back-breaking fifth Pittsburgh goal on a lengthy 5-on-3 yesterday afternoon to find a prime example of this).
The bottom line here is that Jose Theodore, like the team, is on a historic run. And while we have a fairly recent barometer by which to measure lights-out goaltending over the course of a streak, don't sell Theodore short on what he's accomplishing these days - like Huet in March and April of '08, this team wouldn't be where it is without its goaltender.
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Theo
If Theo continues to play this well 3/4 as well, I really like the Caps’ chances this year. I don’t know how Bruce is gonna handle the goaltending situation when Varly comes back beacuse I find it ubsurd to take out a goalie playing this weel.
Agree, it would be a sin to send Neuvy to Hershey.
"We take the shortest route to the puck and arrive in ill humor." - Bobby Clarke
I disagree. Here’s why.
The club can only have two netminders suited up. I think we can be fairly certain in saying that Theo’s not a good option for a long playoff run. As we discussed last week, he’ll probably put up pedestrian numbers, but the way he does it unacceptable. He’s very good in smallish doses and then horrible in larger ones. Terrible Theo can lose you 2-3 games all on his own, which is not going to cut it in a 7 game series.
But he’s a decent choice as a backup. So he’s on the roster.
Then, Neuvy. Neuvy put up back-to-back stinkers, and his rebound control has looked shaky too many times. It’s a complete crapshoot to roll him out there in the playoffs, at this point. I’d like to have something better than a crapshoot.
Varly has at least shown the ability not to wilt under pressure. I’d like to see him get some starts with the big club to see how he looks, before we try the crapshoot approach. In order to do that, you’ve got to bring him up and play him.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
Terrible Theo can lose you 2-3 games all on his own, which is not going to cut it in a 7 game series.
Look at my analysis of the Caps’ losses this season. I disagree with this point. In fully half of the Caps’ losses, a poor showing in the 2nd period was the deciding factor. This was a team problem, not just goaltending.
The one factor I did not look at was whether or not the losing goaltender let the 1st shot of the game in; I recall a handful of games that we lost where that was part of the problem. I’ll include that in the comments on the post when I’ve completed the research.
I need a snappy signature...
We must admit that Theo was definitely on a downswing when last year’s playoffs started. He was in goal for the regular ending season loss against the Florida Panthers that ended 7-4.
Hence, when he was off to a bad start in the first game of the playoffs, Bruce concluded that he wouldn’t be the right goaltender vs the Rangers.
Rocking the Red since 1975
Yeah, I hear you. Here’s where I come down on the points you raise: Terrible Theo lets in a couple of softies and does not make the big save. Whether it comes in Period 2 or whenever, it’s a killer for the team.
Remember the stats that Peerless pulled up? In 45% of his playoff starts, Theo has a Save Pct under .900.
I think he’d make a terrific backup for the playoffs. He doesn’t need a lot of work to stay sharp, he’s been there before, etc. But if he coughs up 3-4 goals in a period in back to back games, the team is looking at having to score 5-6 goals to win it. Even with this offense, it can’t be counted on to happen.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
Terrible Theo lets in a couple of softies and does not make the big save
As good as Varly was in the playoffs he gave up his fair share of soft goals. Logically I think once Varly is healthy he is up and Nuevy goes down. Theo is our #1. If he falls off the face of the planet which so many are predicting we have Varly as an insurance blanket. Obviously Varly will need some more PT when he gets back.
I am tired of the overall pessimism towards Theo. Mainly because I am a bigTheo fan and feel for the guy. I know history is against him but luckily the caps have over 20 more games to see if he is the real deal this year.
Theo for playoffs!
I’m exactly the same way. Huge Theo fan and always tend to be pretty optimistic towards him. I really hope he keeps up his game. If he doesn’t, I think Varly can get it done. I don’t think we’re that anywhere near as bad off in goal as the media seems to think we are.
The Caps are playing so well as a team over this streak that it’s kind of hard to take anyone’s stats seriously. When you’re winning, everyone’s getting numbers and everyone is happy. Of course the goalies look great! Of course Ovie is scoring 2 points per game! We’re scoring lots of goals, and letting in few. That’s the whole idea of winning, right? What’s particularly nice is that so many different players have been contributing, picking up the slack when some guys inevitably go cold.
Good post, JP. The more I think about it, the more I think Theo’s stiil the #1 upon Varly’s return. The goaltender situation will prove to be quite interesting as we move through March. Suffice it to say, the Caps have all they need b/t the pipes to make a good run in the playoffs.
I remember reading at the beginning of the season that Jose said he hadn’t seen the puck this well since he won the Vezina. In light of some of his midyear struggles, I wouldn’t say that’s completely accurate, but I do feel like he’s a bit more trustworthy this year. The way he’s playing right now, he has emphatically made his case that he deserves his shot as the #1 in the playoffs. Boudreau’d be silly to give it to anyone else, healthy Varlamov or not.
What about Theo’s past performance makes you think he’ll be a good goaltender for a long run in the playoffs? If you’re going to say the last month’s work, I’m going to point to his career playoff performance, and his performance before the last month.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
Who else is taking the job from him? Varlamov is, at best, rusty, and is going to need a bunch of time to shake that off. Neuvirth, while good right now, is less consistent than Jose. I’m not arguing that Jose should be a Vezina finalist, or that he’s anything more than a half-decent Playoff goaltender, but, again, who else is taking the job from him? No one that I can see.
The NHL site has Fleury’s 2009 playoff Save percentage as .908 overall, .914 even strength, .877 power play and .913 short-handed. Varly’s Save percentage was .918 overall, .926 EV, .880 PP and 1.00 SH
For this season Neuvi’s save percentage is .916 overall, .925 EV, .889 PP, and .833 SH. Theo’s is .908 overall, .922 EV .849 PP and .923 SH Obviously, these are regular season numbers, so it’s not exactly apples to apples — but since they’re comparable to post-season percentages we found acceptable last year, (and includes their performances for this season before The Streak) I’m willing to entertain the notion that the goaltenders have might be adequate for the playoffs.
I do have a questions about the stats, though. At this point, there’s no special teams breakout for Varlamov. I wonder if it’s because he’s not on the NHL roster.
by miseenjeu on Feb 8, 2010 10:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Varly’s return may be no time soon based on Rock the Red’s review of his performance yesterday.
"We take the shortest route to the puck and arrive in ill humor." - Bobby Clarke
The Rock the Red post on Varly's start
http://rockthered.net/2010/02/08/the-good-bad-and-ugly-of-bearsbaby-pens/
The Ugly Varlamov’s first period. I know it was his first game back. I know he hasn’t seen game action for awhile. I know that the team in front of him did not play well – but I expect more from him. Are my expectations too high? Maybe. Varly allowed 2 goals in the first that he should have had. From my vantage point (directly behind the net the Bears’ guard in the first and third periods), Varly gave up way to many rebounds in choice spots. It was almost as if the rebound placement he worked so hard on last year had gone down the tubes. He was slow moving side to side was caught out of position on both of the Baby Pens’ first period goals.
Granted, as Bears head coach Mark French stated, he "improved as the game wore on." Once he settled in, he was a much better goalie than he showed in the first – but I wouldn’t count on him to come back to DC and get a start right away. I’m not discounting Varly or his abilities – but it seems that he needs more time to hone the skills that have gotten rusty with all the ice time he’s missed lately.
Maybe he was a bit hesitant for fear of injuring himself yet again? After having worked so hard to overcome the groin injury, only to dork up his knee in his first game back… I can see how that might make him not only rusty, but gun-shy. I don’t think we’ll be seeing him with the Caps before the Olympic break, but hopefully he’ll get some of the rust knocked off and be back in March.
You had me at "no problem"!
by mosaicist on Feb 8, 2010 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I gotta say that since The Meltdown™ where Theo was, “I just work here,” and all grumpy and then went out and sucked the next game, he’s been playing really well since the beginning of 2010. It seems like he’s got himself on track, and he’s stopping the all-important first shot on a regular basis:
Feb. 7 – stopped 3 before PIT scored (courtesy a bad Sloan turnover to Crosby)
Feb. 4 – stopped 8 before NYR scored (PP goal)
Feb. 2 – stopped 4 before BOS scored (PP goal)
Jan. 31 – stopped 20 before TAM scored (EV)
Jan. 26 – stopped 6 before NYI scored (PP goal)
Jan. 21 – stopped 1 before PIT scored (EV)
Jan. 19 – stopped 22 before DET scored (EV)
Jan. 17 – stopped 5 before PHI scored (PP goal)
Jan. 15 – stopped 20 before TOR scored (PP goal)
Jan. 13 – stopped 15; FLA never scored
Earlier in the year, there were several games where Theodore failed to stop the first shot that came at him; since he’s improved that stat, our win ratio has gone up considerably.
I need a snappy signature...
by IRockTheRed on Feb 8, 2010 2:49 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
it was almsot liek Theo had to let that first shot through. It was very strange. Last season, same thing.
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
On Draper having to wear a USA jersey at practice: "well at least the Wings can settle bets without involving gold plated desert eagles!"
It was weird. I don’t have time to check all the play-by-plays right now – at work – but I am fairly sure that when he let that first shot through, generally the Caps lost the game.
I need a snappy signature...
I’m sure that’s probably true. But I know Theo let the first shot through in the 2008 home opener, and the Caps came back to win.
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
On Draper having to wear a USA jersey at practice: "well at least the Wings can settle bets without involving gold plated desert eagles!"
Against Chicago. Great game, Ovi scored twice to win it.
What's ya major, dude?
by HBK on Feb 8, 2010 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
Sometimes I have trouble differentiating between Theo playing well and our defense playing tighter and our offense back checking more effectively, (obviously leading to less and/or easier shots.). In either case, Theo has looked great during most of the streak. And like you pointed out, he has locked it up in the 3rd, which is a great observation, but I think that is more attributed to our team playing harder, faster, tighter late in the game.
All in all, it’s great to feel like we really have some quality goaltending options going forward.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Feb 8, 2010 2:53 PM EST reply actions
Goaltending is still the BIG QUESTION MARK for this club heading into the playoffs. The wins for Theo are nice but even with this little run, he’s just barely gotten himself over the replacement level thresshold per GvT — a couple of weeks back he was in the Osgood / JG realm of significantly below replacement level. In fact Neuvy has been dramatically better than Theo on a per game basis.
I’m not sure I understand BB/GM’s playing time allocation recently. If there’s one thing we know for sure about the goaltending situation in DC, it’s that Theo is NOT good enough to take this team to the SC. We don’t know about Neuvy, who has looked fantastic mostly and dreadful a couple of times. We don’t whether Varly can stay healthy or even get healthy. If were running this team (that’s otherwise really, really well run), I’d have been playing Neuvy a heck of a lot more. Let’s see what we’ve got here with this kid, and, certainly, post-break, we need to see the young guys. That is, if GMGM has traded one of the kids for a veteran netminder.
Carlos, I like the way you think.
Neuvy played himself out of the lineup with the back to back horrid starts just prior to the inception of the streak. Those two efforts, combined with some periodic problems with rebound control, make me reluctant to say he is a potential playoff solution for the team. His stats have looked good in the wins he’s gotten, but he’s kicked a good number of pucks right out into the crease. Against Atlanta in the winter, that’s good enough. Against one of the top echelon teams in the spring, I don’t think it will be.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
If there’s one thing we know for sure about the goaltending situation in DC, it’s that Theo is NOT good enough to take this team to the SC
Based on one playoff game with the team?? If Theo continues to play like he currently is, there is no reason he can’t win a SC with the team that is playing in front of him. Can keep this play up into the playoffs, who knows. But until he falters he has earned the chance to IMO.
If Theo continues to play like he currently is,
He hasn’t been consistent since his one brilliant season, which is looking like a textbook career year.
And that’s precisely the point: he won’t continue playing this way, if the past 7 seasons are any indication.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
He’s consistent now. BB is definitely “what have you done for me lately” with his goalies. Theo will stay #1 until he plays himself out of it.
"We take the shortest route to the puck and arrive in ill humor." - Bobby Clarke
Theo will stay #1 until he plays himself out of it.
The point is based on his historical numbers that is exactly what Theo will do.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
The point is based on his historical numbers that is exactly whatTheoany goaltender will do.
No goalie stays hot forever. This is not a feature unique to Theodore.
↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → b a (select) start
Of course not. However, Theo tends to be hot/cold, much more so than elite level goalies. His overall numbers during his career are quite average.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
by CP2Devil on Feb 8, 2010 7:51 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, Theo’s hot. It’s been nice.
I remember what happened when Huet cooled off, too. His numbers against Philly (who were way better competition than the teams against which he authored his streak) slid pretty quick. At least Theo has played some quality teams, but I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the streak occurred simultaneous to a favorable turn in the schedule.
All in all, I’m not completely sold on Theo.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
How can you be? How can anyone be? He’s consistently inconsistent.
That said, part of Huet’s undoing was the team being unprepared for Philly, spent when they got there, inexperienced, etc. This Caps team should be much better able to handle an off night from its netminder, but we’ll see.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Feb 8, 2010 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
One off night, sure, no problem. Two off nights in the same series…that starts to get a little dicey.
Agree with you about the preparedness of this team for the playoffs. They’re salty now.
Given what’s out there in terms of goalies available for trade (if the puckosphere can be trusted) I’d rather concentrate on upgrading the PK and take our chances that the current ’tenders can do enough.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
Re: Huet
That’s all true, but he was not making the same saves he made for the team down the stretch, even when the Caps found their game and were dominating the second half of the series.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
by Fehr and Balanced on Feb 8, 2010 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
Is there anything Theo can do to change your mind? If the playoffs started tomorrow, Theo would be the guy. It all comes down to how well he’s playing in late march early april. Theo came down the stretch a little shaky last year with a 3.25 GA in his last 8 games, and he didn’t last in the playoffs. Goalie is the streakiest position and its going to come down to who plays better at the end of the season, regardless of past history.
I do not think Theo would be the guy if the playoffs started tomorrow. That’s the definition of a wasted season. This club is awesome, but GMGM needs to recognize the window of opportunity may not stay open as long as we’d all wish it to (injury, salary cap, age etc all get in the way more often than not). If the playoffs started tomorrow, I’m quite sure it’d end up looking like last year — to the extent Theo got a shot, he wouldn’t last beyond one game before we decided to let it all ride on Neuvy, that’s why I want Neuvy out there now.
And that’s why I think — despite all the talk about needed another D or a 3rd C, that GMGM is most likely to go and get a G. Earlier in the year I would have opposed that, given the depth we have in Varly and Neuvy (and now Holtby), but with Varly unhealthy and Neuvy giving up big rebounds, I’d be okay with the right G trade.
The only problem with that, is I don’t think there’s an available goalie that would be an upgrade over what we currently have.
Exactly. That goalie you would trade for would be a veteran with a previous track record of success, but past his prime and less consistent now than he used to be. I’d take the Theo version of that model.
Anyone know if Chris Osgood is available? IIRC then Theo for Ozzie would save the Wings a tiny bit of cap space.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Feb 8, 2010 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
Osgood in the 2008 and 2009 playoffs was brilliant, IMO. And I think the stats will back me up.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Feb 9, 2010 8:21 AM EST up reply actions
Ozzie is ridiculously cheap, $1.4ish cap hit for this year and next. Given the Wings own salary cap issues, no way would they trade Ozzie for Theo. Ozzie is also on a 35+ contract, making it extremely hard for the Caps to get rid of him next season.
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
On Draper having to wear a USA jersey at practice: "well at least the Wings can settle bets without involving gold plated desert eagles!"
For some reason I was thinking Ozzie was signed at around $5 million. I guess I confused him with someone else.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Feb 9, 2010 8:20 AM EST up reply actions
i second that notion - there’s no one out there that would be better than what we have now.
Turco is a nice option, but for some other team who is a 6/7/8 seed - he would not be an improvement, if any, over Theo.
and Toskala? NO WAY
Rock the Red! Rock the White! Rock the Blue! Rock the Pens!
by RedskinFan4Life on Feb 8, 2010 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
This. Caps do not have an elite goalie. They will not be able to obtain one this year. They have many capable options with Theo as the leading candidate currently. Do the Caps need an elite goalie to win the Stanley cup? IMO no.
The Canes won with Ward the Wings with Osgood. The Caps can win with Theo
The Canes won with Ward the Wings with Osgood. The Caps can win with Theo
The Penguins won with Fleury.
I don’t think it’s the same. Ward and Fleury have proven themselves as clutch playoff goalies, IMO, and probably the best in the business outside of New Jersey.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Feb 9, 2010 8:22 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t really think a G trade is necessary. Theo’s been playing as well as anyone could’ve hoped for and Neuvy’s looking great as well. Hopefully Varly comes back and picks up right where he left off, which gives us three goalies looking good. I don’t see a goalie trade that would help us all that much, mainly because there’s not too many options out there. I’d say just go with what we have in the goalie department.
I’m not saying a G trade is necessary. I am saying:
Of all the trade possibilities, I put a G trade as the highest probability. I could live with us staying as is, but not if that means starting Theo. I know how that movie ends.
Theo may be playing “as well as anyone could’ve hoped for” but it still ain’t good enough.
I’m not sure it’s safe to predict this season’s outcomes based on last year’s results.
If the playoffs started tomorrow, there are any number of Pittsburgh fans who are quite sure it will end up looking like last year — and an entire Capitals organization (not just Theo) who will be doing their damndest to make sure that doesn’t happen.
I’m not basing my assessment on Theo’s one playoff game last year. Nor am I basing it on his recent “hot streak” which has seen him perform at about the level that the top quartile of goalies perform at over the entire season. I’m basing my assessment on Theo’s entire career with the caps, and in fact his entire career. He had one great year. He’s been riding that ever since. He’s actually no better than goalies who toil away their entire careers in the AHL, or the SEL. Outside his great year, he’s never had another season where he saved even 92% of shots. Outside his great year, he’s been remarkably consistent: he’s an otherwise lousy, replacement level goalie who put together one great season ages ago and has shown no ability to recapture that level of success.
by CarlosLA on Feb 8, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
What’s with the arbitrary .920 cut off? .920 puts you in the top 10 in most seasons, and it certainly isn’t the case that a sv% of .910-.919 (which Theo has had 3 times) is “no better than goalies who toil away their entire careers in the AHL, or the SEL”. Theo is definitely inconsistent and hasn’t matched his Vezina/Hart year since then, but his career performance has definitely been far better than that of a career minor leaguer.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Feb 8, 2010 7:13 PM EST up reply actions
What’s with the cutoff? Well, he had one great season at 93% and then not another until… 91.9%. Simple as that. Agreed .920 makes you elite, so that’s just my point: he’s not elite. Even his hot streak isn’t “hot” by elite standards, it’s the season long average of elite players.
The facts just are not with you on Theo’s career performance. He’s playing right to his career average this year, and this year he’s playing almost exactly at replacement level (significantly below as of a few weeks ago, slightly above today). He’s got a brand name b/c he had one ungodly season. Ever since, he’s been overpaid and overplayed.
Reread what I wrote, I never suggested Theodore was elite or wasn’t overpaid. What I was arguing was:
his career performance has definitely been far better than that of a career minor leaguer.
In response to:
He’s actually no better than goalies who toil away their entire careers in the AHL, or the SEL
But I do disagree that Theo’s hot streak isn’t impressive because his SV% is only .925 over the course of the streak. Sure that is the season average of elite goalies, but elite goalies are remarkably consistent and don’t have the peaks and valley’s Theo has – that is why they are elite. His stats are also a bit skewed from the last two games in which he gave up 9 goals, but still played very well despite the stats. Theo is playing just as well as any goalie right now, and it’s not all that surprising. He has always shown the ability to play like an elite goalie for stretches, he’s just never shown the consistency.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Feb 9, 2010 1:53 AM EST up reply actions
Note that Theo’s GAA for the last week was 3.29. His save pct was .913…or, .003 above his season-to-date numbers.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
This is one of the elements that has been vital to the Caps streak.
Theodore’s play of late has been amazing.
I feel that Teddy’s job is to make saves, just like every other goaltender in the NHL. However, his job relative to the team is to keep them afloat. Making saves, keeping us above water, enables the team to play the explosive game they have nearly perfected. When Theo begins to let softies in or lets in a screened PPG from the point (All Goalies must make difficult saves in situations completely created by a defensive liablity), the Capitals cruiser begins to sink, and the window of opportunity, brought to you by Thompson Creek, begins to close. When some goals trickle by, the team can certainly rise to the occasion and win; however, when the flood gates open, the ship is sunk.
In the play-offs, Theo just needs to make the saves to keep us afloat and keep our momentum alive. The rest, will be in the hands of the most dangerous offensive machine in the league.
Still waiting for someone to draft Paul Newman. . .
Amazing? His play has been “amazing”?
Boy, we are so desparate for good goalie play here we’ve totally forgotten what amazing looks like. Since new years, Theo has saved 92.5% of shots. That is in fact really, really good.
Seven goalies have put up better numbers over the ENTIRE SEASON than Theo has in his hottest spell. Read that again so it sinks in.
For kicks, I searched on goalie games this season with SV% greater than or equal to .925 and facing 20 or more shots. Here is your leader board:
1. Nabokov 32 games
2. Kiprusoff 28
3. Vokun 27
4t Lundy 25
4t Miller 25
6t. Anderson 24
6t Marty 24
8t Ilya 23
8t Luongo 23
…
24t Jose 13
Note, the SC runs through several of the goalies above Theo.
How’d you do that search btw? I’m looking for any info on gathering stats, sorting, etc.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Feb 8, 2010 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
http://www.hockey-reference.com/pp/pgl_finder.cgi
totally rocks. You can run searches, but you can’t quite do everything I’d want. Ideally I’d run that same query but add in GS and then report out which goalie has the highest percentage of starts qualifying.
Then again, the Caps are probably going to give up more quality chances than most of those teams.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Feb 8, 2010 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
Important Sidenote: at even strength, Varlamov has a better save percentage than any netminder in the league who has played more than 15 games, except Tomas Vokoun.
I’m not totally sure why everyone is worried about Theodore – a healthy Varlamov is nice security net to fall into if Theodore seems like he won’t be enough.
The eagle never lost so much time as when he submitted to learn from the crow.
For awhile i was a pretty big critic of Theo, going so far as too call him Threeormore.
However, I have seen the light.
In many of the past games he has faced a LARGE amount of shots, turned down QUALITY scoring chances, making amazing saves, and worked through dense defensive screens.
I established Theo’s role, to keep the Washington Capitals in striking distance of their oponents, albeit striking distance is an Ovechkin Clas Sniper Rifle. . .or 3 goals. He’s doing his job, amazingly.
Those seven goalies don’t play for the Capitals. NO OTHER team plays with the same offensive poignancy as the caps. Some of those goalies above him? Miller, like rly? They play uber-defensive hockey (its so boring they dont deserve an umlaut).
Still waiting for someone to draft Paul Newman. . .
Theo's on a heater...
…but we can’t bank on this level of play going into the playoffs. He is bound to cool off at some point and revert to his mean performance. And when that happens it’s going to expose our defense again – one that gives up way too many chances for a team of its caliber.
I do not believe our defense has been exceptional during The Streak. I actually think the defense has played at the same mediocre level they have all season – they’ve just been spared by Theo’s stellar play. So, thank you, Theo (and Neuvi) for a wonderful 14-game ride…and, more importantly, please GMGM, find that defenseman who can push Sloan/Erskine permanently off the top 6 rotation so we can make a genuine run at the Cup.
Despised in all cities except Washington and Quebec.
please GMGM, find that defenseman who can push Sloan/Erskine permanently off the top 6 rotation so we can make a genuine run at the Cup.
A Karl Alzner on the line for you.
But I think a lot of it has to do with backchecking too. Look at PIT last season. Their D corps wasn’t exceptional, and in fact, I think the Caps D corps is better. But the forwards backchecked hard to help out their D (always saw four Pens back) which helps immensely.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Feb 8, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
I like Alzner as much as the next poster here, but I wouldn’t want him in the playoffs. He’s a next year sort of guy. Most of the time he has looked as outclassed or nearly as outclassed as Sloan out there. Maybe he needs more time in the NHL before he can step it up? We’ll probably see after the Olympic break.
I just don’t think Alzner is ready to make the jump from Hershey to NHL-playoff hockey this year. I think if he was an option he’d already be in the daily rotation.
I agree that Pitt’s defense wasn’t exceptional, but they were defensively solid and rarely made mistakes. And Pittsburgh (last year) limited opponent’s chances because their forwards controlled the puck a majority of the game. When Pitt didn’t have the puck they buried it deep in the offensive end and made team’s work the full length of the ice. We don’t have the same caliber of centers or goaltenders – nor do we play the same style of game – to get away with an average d-corps.
Despised in all cities except Washington and Quebec.
by topshelf_22304 on Feb 8, 2010 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
I think the plan is to max Alzner’s playoff time. In DC, they Caps have a ton of defensemen who’d be exposed to waivers if sent down and if not just eat up a roster space and cap room. Plus, with the Caps winning as they are now, makes sense not to mess with chemistry. I dunno, maybe I just fell in love after his great performance on his first call up last season and haven’t gotten over it yet. He does look good and determined though, right? And I’d say he’d be better than all but Green, Schultz, Poti, and maybe Pothier if he gets about a dozen games before the playoffs.
When forwards come back hard, they give their defensemen more options. No need for PIT defensemen to make the tough long pass, but instead just a short pass to a forward who’d carry it out. I didn’t see enough of that from Washington—it looked like they were pushing three men up ice, not leaving the defensemen many options for a simple play.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Feb 9, 2010 8:32 AM EST up reply actions
nice nice article! good job, JP.
after reviewing all posts above…..I think we’re better off staying put or getting our D corps improved.
How we improve it doesn’t matter — trade for a better Dman or just simply calling up (and keeping up) Alzner and/or Carlson. I think our second tier of Dmen is our weakest spot, not the goalie and definitely not our offense. Certainly Theo can’t keep up his hot streak (would be nice, though), but if he hits a couple bad games, then we can switch to Varly or Neuvi. All three have shown that they can play well. I think our main goal should be to strengthen our D.
As for the talk about goalie trades, I doubt it’ll happen. If anything of that nature, I could see Holtby going to some West Conf. team for a player who could help us now. We have a deep crop of goalies and I dont’ see Varly or Neuvi going anywhere, so that leaves Holtby as the odd man out….
Rock the Red! Rock the White! Rock the Blue! Rock the Pens!
I don’t think this would be the year that GMGM would trade any of those three guys. I’d bet he wants them to develop a little bit more to see what he really has in them. Also, if he were to be moving one of them, he would have to be getting a stud in return.
that’s what i’m thinking - maybe a stud in return or a high draft pick
with all goalies playing so well, why not sell when the value is high?
Rock the Red! Rock the White! Rock the Blue! Rock the Pens!
by RedskinFan4Life on Feb 8, 2010 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
The only reason I don’t think he pulls a trade with one of these guys this year, is I don’t think there is a stud player available.
I’m also afraid the one guy we trade away will be the one that ends up the best as well. I’ve seen that happen a time or two too many on other teams I’ve rooted for.
I’m also afraid the one guy we trade away will be the one that ends up the best as well.
That’s the gamble - you just never know. I like our chances with Varly and Neuvy. I would be willing to trade Holtby for the right price. Then again, I’m not GMGM. :)
Rock the Red! Rock the White! Rock the Blue! Rock the Pens!
by RedskinFan4Life on Feb 8, 2010 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
Why would you trade Holtby? He’s actually the guy I’d be least likely to trade. he’s got more years until he’s be a free agent and you haven’t seen what he can do at the NHL level yet. He’s looked great in all 3 leagues he’s played in his he was drafted and could long terms be better than Varly or Neuvy.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
go back five posts to the original one…..i don’t want to trade Holtby, but he’s the odd man out. haven’t seen him play at NHL level yet and Varly/Neuvi have shown me enough that I can take my chances. if i can hang on to all three for the time being, I would, but if any of them had to go now, then it’d be Holtby.
Rock the Red! Rock the White! Rock the Blue! Rock the Pens!
by RedskinFan4Life on Feb 9, 2010 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
OTOH
Holtby might just as easily be safest of the 3: he’s strictly a prospect, and so less apt to draw proven NHL talent in trade. Too, if you’re planning for the next 2-3 years, you’re going to need “a Holtby” more than you need an entire Varlavirth.
The problem is that we have three games scheduled between now and the Olympic break. The trade deadline of March 3rd, which is the first game we have after the Olympic break. During the Olympic break, there will probably be no trades made anywhere in the NHL.
Varly made a rehab start yesterday in Hershey. In the three games we have remaining before the Olympic break, there is NOT enough time to evaluate whether Varly is healthy, let alone whether he will be ready for a playoff run.
In any event, I think the team would like to have a better look at Holtby before making any decisions.
GMs will still be talking. Plenty of people have hyped up the days before the Olym break as a good trade day. I bet it is the days after, GMs wil have had time to talk to other GMs and set stuff up for when the trade tables are thawed
Still waiting for someone to draft Paul Newman. . .
I don’t doubt that GMs will be talking, but I don’t know when they’d have a chance to scout Varly or Holtby during the Olympic break. I would guess that, right now, either would be considered a prospect, since they don’t have recent NHL film available. Varly might be a better gamble, since he’s performed well when healthy, but he’s still relatively untested when compared to other young goalies.
I’d rather see the team look at Holtby before making any decisions, also. One thing that Holtby has proven, at least at the AHL level, is that he can do back to backs. This year’s backup at Hershey got a lot less work, as of late, than the cast of characters they had there last year.
But then again, I really love Varly also. (And we can’t ignore Neuvirth.)
My own feeling is that Theo is gone after this season and we go with the two kids (Varly and Neuvy) as our goalies for next year, with Holtby starting the year at Hershey but being brought up to Washington whenever there’s an injury. Chances are, he would get some playing time in that scenario. If last year (and this year) are any indication, the guy slated to be the main Hershey goalie has gotten work with the Caps.
Rocking the Red since 1975
J.P. Maybe you should have thrown a poll in this post with a YES/NO/DUNNO for the question “Would you trust Jose to lead you to the Stanley Cup Finals”?
agreed. Though i would like to see what varly can do after the olympic break
rockin it '96/'97
by Caps Canadian Connection on Feb 8, 2010 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe the secondary question in the poll should be “when do you think we’ll be able to know who we can trust in the playoffs?” I maintain that it will be mid-April before Bruce makes a decision, and it will be based on how things look after the Olympic break.
Agreed that we may not know until right before the playoffs. The season began with Theo as the #1 and BB planned to platoon him and Varly for 30-40 games before running with one (who would then become the playoff starter assuming he stayed hot). It hasn’t worked out that way at all, but I’m certainly glad that Theo has had an opportunity to find his game and that we’ve taken a good look at Neuvy. I wouldn’t be surprised if Theo was our #1 goalie going into the playoffs (but I know many will disagree).
It depends
I trust Jose when he’s on a hot streak. However, if he loses a gme 7-4 or 5-2 or something like that, pull him, send Varly in for the rest of the playoffs. I trust Jose until it looks like he might be getting cold.
They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown.
Off Topic | For Those Remotely Close to Kettler
Stick-n-shoot at 5:15 – 6:30pm, Pick-up from 6-7:30pm
"Where can you go from there? Where? ... Nowhere. Exactly. What we do is, if we need that extra push over the cliff, you know what we do?"
May I suggest the Clips for that? I know people are still reading it. Or, you could Fanshot it with an invitation to join you.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 8, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
You may. I had multiple Rink tabs open. Looks like I double posted here and on clips as well. FAIL on my part for not paying close attention to which thread I was posting on and yes, in hindsight a Fanshot was more appropriate which I eventually put up. Forgive me for I have sinned.
"Where can you go from there? Where? ... Nowhere. Exactly. What we do is, if we need that extra push over the cliff, you know what we do?"
by UnleashFurry on Feb 8, 2010 11:23 PM EST up reply actions
as inconsistent that theo has been in his career, he has really won some games for us as of late
rockin it '96/'97
by Caps Canadian Connection on Feb 8, 2010 4:44 PM EST reply actions
Power Plays per Game
Theo’s faced an average of 5.2 power plays per game over the last 9 games. That’s 46.8 power plays?
How is that calculated? Is it just the # of times shorthanded?
Am I being obtuse?
Pick SPG for your chance to win probably nothing.
That would be 47 times shorthanded, divided by 9 games, equals 5.222, which rounds to 5.2.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
Kolbe thinks it is "too late" for Varly this year
I was just listening to Kolbe on ESPN980. He said it might be too late for Varly to come up and play himself into shape and have a meaningful role this year, and that the team may just go with Theo and Neuvy. I agree with that.
"We take the shortest route to the puck and arrive in ill humor." - Bobby Clarke
I would agree with that as well. Right now it’s Theo’s job to lose. I don’t really see how you can pull him in favor of someone who’s been injured for 2 months if he’s playing so well. And Neuvy’s looked great, too. Varly may have had the #1 position wrapped up by now had he not gotten injured. Or maybe not. But things played out the way they did and Neuvy and Theo have been great for us, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we just roll with one of them.
I think It’s very much to Theo’s credit that he’s playing as well as he is. I think it would have been understandable for Theo to have settled for the course of least resistance before camp, and again in late December/early January. The fact that he’s put together a career best win record for himself since early January gives me the idea that he 1) has a phenomenal work ethic, and 2) it’s too early to count him out.
I think if Theo falters, we’re in good shape with Neuvi. I’m impressed with how solid he’s looked after being pulled two nights in succession in early January — especially when he sounded so down about it before the start against Phoenix.
I have to agree with Kolbe. If we weren’t discussing a two week Olympic break, it might be different, but as slowly as Varly started October, I’m not sure we could expect him to jump in in March after a three month layoff (two for recovery, plus the Olympic break) and be ready for an NHL cup run.
He may be right, if Theo stays hot. However, my guess is Theo will cool and if Varly stays healthy he’ll get enough starts after the break to be ready for the playoffs.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
Kolbe did not think Varly would be up here to even get any starts. With Neuvy playing so well, don’t think the the Caps will send him back and take on a guy who hasn’t played for 2 months.
"We take the shortest route to the puck and arrive in ill humor." - Bobby Clarke
If Kolbe is right, that means Varly and Holtby will be the goalies for Hershey for the rest of the year. Now how will they balance the playing time for those 2 down in Hershey?
That would be ironic. Varly, a goalie for the Bears’ Calder Cup run after spending the previous year’s playoff run for the Caps.
Rocking the Red since 1975
Kolbe didn’t discuss that issue, but things are so fluid that I don’t think any decisions need to be made now. The chance of all four goalies remaining healthy is slim. In fact, I suspect Varly will be heard in practice at the Olympics because, well, that’s just how his year is going.
"We take the shortest route to the puck and arrive in ill humor." - Bobby Clarke
I was extrapolating the logical conclusion from Kolbe’s opinions. For the moment, the Caps only have to make the decision as to what to do with Varly for next week.
The Russians will make the decisions on Varly’s Olympic time.
But at least Varly will be getting practice time, due to the Olympics so he won’t be coming back after the break totally cold.
And Neuvirth will likely be playing at Hershey during the break as well.
Rocking the Red since 1975
Gotta disagree with kolbe. The playoffs don’t start until April. Plenty of time to get into shape. I’m guessing he may even start one of these back to backs this week. Didn’t take varly long to get into playoff shape last year…
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
by dcsportsfan1 on Feb 8, 2010 7:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Thanks Steve, but Varly played 7 games last year before becoming the starting goalie in the playoffs from game 2 on. There’s plenty of time left for him to reclaim his number 1 spot.
Kolbe is as lost analyzing the team as he is calling the games.
Wasn’t Varly playing in Hershey before that time? If he’d played 30 or so games in Hershey, in between call ups to Washington, that’s a little different from not skating for two months and then trying to make the jump to NHL form.
Although Varly was out for a while last year too, during February and March, before the playoffs. Which is why Neuvirth was up during that period of time when Johnson went out for the year.
Rocking the Red since 1975
Just curious
How can there be such a long, comprehensive post and 108 comments about Caps’ goaltending without once even considering or mentioning the new goaltenders’ coach, Arturs Irbe?
I realize he was brought in most specifically to work with Varlamov but it seems to me that the entire goalie corps has benefited from his guidance.
IS KEPTIN NOW
by EmilyB on Feb 8, 2010 8:17 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Yes, credit should be given where credit is due. Kudos to Arturs Irbe, the Latvian. BTW, it’s been a great year on the Latvian front for the Caps. Irbe as goalie coach and Knuble as a player. Okay, Knuble wasn’t born in Latvia but his parents were Latvian refugees. Our resident Latvian-Canadian-American.
Rocking the Red since 1975
on the rare practice I get to, I’ve noticed how hands-on Irbe is. Always right there, hovering, constantly coaching. Lots of one-on-one work with the goalies, too.
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
On Draper having to wear a USA jersey at practice: "well at least the Wings can settle bets without involving gold plated desert eagles!"
Well if we’re talking about coaching staff additions, Bob Woods and the growth/resurgence of some key defensemen ain’t chopped liver either.
Damn! Looks like my women is on time.
He is great as well
Makes our D not horrible, merely mediocre at #14 in GA, which for the #1 Goal scoring team, is good enough. Could be better, but decent.
They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown.
Last year is last year, this year is this year….
EIther year I’m glad the Caps have Theo and his contract vs. Huet and the contract he has in Chicago.
Me? I know it’s not the genreal sentiment in this group but right now Theo is the right guy for the #1 job. Varly hasn’t shown the durability and “Terrible Neuvy” is as bad as “Terrible Theo” ever was. So I’d rather have a guy who won a Vezina, won a Hart and played in one of the two biggest pressure cookers of professional hockey & media in the net if/when we get through the first three rounds of the playoffs…
by markbona-capsfan99 on Feb 8, 2010 9:00 PM EST reply actions
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
82 | 54 | 15 | 13 | 121 |
|
Atlanta
|
82 | 35 | 34 | 13 | 83 |
|
Carolina
|
82 | 35 | 37 | 10 | 80 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
82 | 34 | 36 | 12 | 80 |
|
Florida
|
82 | 32 | 37 | 13 | 77 |
(updated 4.12.2010 at 9:21 AM EDT)
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