Analyzing Losses... the trend

Blown Game:
a game in which the team scored 4 or more goals, allowed 25 or fewer shots but lost
-or-
a game in which the team scored 5 or more goals and allowed 26-30 shots, but lost.

By these standards, I don't think the Caps have blown it for an entire game at all this season.  That said, fully half of our losses (9 of 18) have been marked by a horrible 2nd frame, both offensively and defensively.  We have lost by more than one goal only six times all season, and half of those, the 2nd frame was the worst.

* NJD 5, WSH 2 (14-NOV-2009) - bad 2nd frame
* BUF 3, WSH 0 (09-DEC-2009) - bad 2nd frame
* TOR 6, WSH 3 (12-DEC-2009)
* CAR 6, WSH 3 (28-DEC-2009)
* SJS 5, WSH 2 (30-DEC-2009)
* TBL 7, WSH 4 (12-JAN-2010) - bad 2nd frame

And we have lost in OT or in the shootout 6 times.  The other 6 were one-goal games.  Below the jump, I have a game-by-game, frame-by-frame analysis which shows the breakdown of each loss, from the point-of-view of the goalie and his SV%.  This includes losses by all three goalies: Theodore, Varlamov, and Neuvirth, and includes the opposing goalie's stats, for comparison.

* 1st frame, Varlamov saved 11:11 (1.00)
* 2nd frame, Varlamov saved 11:15 (.733)
* Emery saved 6:9 (.666)
* 3rd frame, Theodore saved 10:11 (.909)
* Emery saved 10:12 (.833)
* OT, Theodore saved 1:4 (.750)

None of the goalies were having a real good night that night, but I can't paste the loss on Theodore, even though he was the guy in the crease for the OT goal.  We only got one shot during that overtime.  The shot totals were 41-36 in favor of the Flyers. The 2nd frame .733 SV% put up by Varlamov was very much a part of why we lost this one.

2) NYR 4, WSH 3
* 1st frame, Theodore saved 7:7 (1.00)
* Lundqvist saved 8:9 (.888)
* 2nd frame, Theodore saved 10:12 (.833)
* Lundqvist saved 9:9 (1.00)
* 3rd frame, Theodore saved 8:10 (.800)
* Lundqvist saved 8:10 (.800)

Shot totals were 29-28 in favor of the Rangers.  The 2nd frame was painful, but so was the third.  Another one-goal loss, the Caps would not lose by more than a single goal for several more games.

3) DET 3, WSH 2
* 1st frame, Theodore saved 13:14 (.928)
* Osgood saved 9:10 (.900)
* 2nd frame, Theodore saved 11:12 (.916)
* Osgood saved 10:10 (1.00)
* 3rd frame, Theodore saved 10:11 (.909)
* Osgood saved 3:4 (.750)

Shot totals were 37-24 in favor of Washington.  Theodore (overall) saved over 90% of what came his way, and the 2nd frame was not the worst of the three.

4) NJD 3, WSH 2 (SO)
* 1st frame, Theodore saved 7:7 (1.00)
* Brodeur saved 4:6 (.666)
* 2nd frame, Theodore saved 6:7 (.857)
* Brodeur saved 12:12 (1.00)
* 3rd frame, Theodore saved 11:12 (.916)
* Brodeur saved 11:11 (1.00)
* OT, Theodore saved 3:3 (1.00)
* Brodeur saved 4:4 (1.00)
* Shootout went 3 rounds
* Backstrom scored
* Parise scored
* Semin missed
* Langenbrunner scored
* Ovechkin missed

Shots on goal were 33-29 in favor of Washington.  The 2nd frame was the worst of the three.  This 2nd frame is starting to emerge as a pattern.

5) NYI 4, WSH 3 (OT)
* 1st frame, Theodore saved 10:11 (.909)
* Roloson saved 8:9 (.888)
* 2nd frame, Theodore saved 7:9 (.777)
* Roloson saved 12:14 (.857)
* 3rd frame, Theodore saved 8:8 (1.00)
* Roloson saved 17:17 (1.00)
* OT, Theodore saved 1:2 (.500)
* Roloson didn't see any shots.

That second frame was brutally bad for Theodore, but the fact that we put no shots up in overtime didn't help.  Shots on goal were 40-30 in favor of Washington.  I would say that Theodore very badly blew the 2nd frame in this one, but Roloson was playing crazy-good, too...

6) CBJ 5, WSH 4 (OT)
* 1st frame, Theodore saved 11:11 (1.00)
* Mason saved 12:13 (.923)
* 2nd frame, Theodore saved 6:8 (.750)
* Mason saved 11:11 (1.00)
* 3rd frame, Theodore saved 9:11 (.818)
* Mason saved 9:12 (.750)
* OT, Theodore saved 1:2 (.500)
* Mason didn't see any shots.

The 2nd frame was, again, horrible for Theodore, and though he picked it up a tiny bit in the 3rd, he still let two goals get past him.  Mason, however, also had a lousy 3rd frame, as bad as Theodore's second.  That said, the lack of shots on goal in OT did not help.  Shots on goal were 36-32 in favor of Washington, but I can't completely pin this on Theodore, either.  

7) NJD 3, WSH 2
* 1st frame, Varlamov saved 6:6 (1.00)
* Brodeur saved 10:11 (.909)
* 2nd frame, Varlamov saved 10:11 (.909)
* Brodeur saved 6:6 (1.00)
* 3rd frame, Varlamov saved 13:15 (.866)
* Brodeur saved 10:11 (.909)

Shots on goal were 32-28 in favor of Washington.  Varlamov's 3rd frame performance was not stellar, and, in fact, the Devils won the game in that 3rd frame.  This game is the first one that breaks the "2nd frame sucks" pattern that we'd seen up to this point.

8) NJD 5, WSH 2
* 1st frame, Theodore saved 6:7 (.857)
* Brodeur saved 9:11 (.818)
* 2nd frame, Theodore saved 7:10 (.700)
* Brodeur saved 10:10 (1.00)
* 3rd frame, Theodore saved 5:6 (.833)
* Brodeur saved 8:8 (1.00)

Shots on goal were 29-23 in favor of New Jersey.  Again, the 2nd frame was hideous for Theodore.  I was at this particular away game, though, and I recall several huge errors on the part of forwards that directly led to goals... it was a hugely bad team effort, but (again) the 2nd frame was the worst.

9) MTL 3, WSH 2
* 1st frame, Neuvirth saved 14:14 (1.00)
* Price saved 6:7 (.857)
* 2nd frame, Neuvirth saved 2:4 (.500)
* Price saved 11:11 (1.00)
* *3rd frame*, Neuvirth saved 3:4 *(.750)*
* Price saved 15:16 (.937)

Ouch.  Just.  Ouch.  We allowed only 22 shots on goal, to the 34 that we put up... but far and away, this is the worst 2nd frame performance by one of our netminders that I've found thus far, and it was followed by a considerably less-than-stellar 3rd frame.  Price had a crazy-good game that night, too.

10) TOR 2, WSH 1 (SO)
* 1st frame, Varlamov saved 11:11 (1.00)
* Toskala saved 9:10 (.900)
* 2nd frame, Varlamov saved 16:17 (.941)
* Toskala saved 10:10 (1.00)
* 3rd frame, Varlamov saved 9:9 (1.00)
* Toskala saved 10:10 (1.00)
* OT, Varlamov saved 2:2 (1.00)
* Toskala saved 2:2 (1.00)
* Kessel scored
* Fehr missed
* Mitchell missed
* Ovechkin missed
* Hagman scored

* Whoever shot last was not listed, but he missed

I can't pin this one on Varlamov at all.  The game was pretty darned even throughout.

11) WSH 3, OTT 4 (OT)
* 1st frame, Varlamov saved 7:8 (.875)
* Elliott saved 13:15 (.866)
* 2nd frame, Varlamov saved 7:7 (1.00)
* Elliott saved 9:10 (.900)
* 3rd frame, Varlamov saved 16:18 (.888)
* Eliott saved 10:10 (1.00)
* OT, Varlamov saved 3:4 (.750)
* Elliott saved 3:3 (1.00)

Overall, this one was pretty even, too; I can't point to any one frame as being considerably worse than any other.  At this point, as we enter late November, the 2nd frame curse that plagued the team early on is seeming to dissipate.

12) BUF 3, WSH 0
* 1st frame, Theodore saved 10:11 (.909)
* Miller saved 11:11 (1.00)
* 2nd frame, Theodore saved 11:13 (.846)
* Miller saved 11:11 (1.00)
* 3rd frame, Theodore saved 4:4 (1.00)
* Miller saved 13:13

...and I take it back (about the 2nd frame curse).  I remember this game.  Ryan Miller was playing out of his mind.  Our guys put 35 shots up, and he saved every last one of them.  It was insane!  The 2nd frame was Theodore's worst, but it wasn't *as* bad as some of the other 2nd frames we've seen, and the Caps' complete lack of offense in this game is by far the worse problem.

13) WSH 3, TOR 6
* 1st frame, Neuvirth saved 8:8 (1.00)
* Toskala saved 10:12 (.833)
* 2nd frame, Neuvirth saved 14:17 (.823)
* Toskala saved 11:12 (.916)
* 3rd frame, Neuvirth saved 8:11 (.727)
* Toskala saved 13:13 (1.00)

Neuvirth's 3rd frame in this game was definitely not pretty.  Nor was the 3rd frame for the rest of the team.  The Leafs scored a short-handed goal in the 3rd frame, so overall, I think that the team broke down pretty badly.

14) VAN 3, WSH 2
* 1st frame, Theodore saved 6:7 (.857)
* Luongo saved 9:11 (.818)
* 2nd frame, Theodore saved 5:6 (.833)
* Luongo saved 8:8 (1.00)
* 3rd frame, Theodore saved 6:7 (.857)
* Luongo saved 8:8 (1.00)

Here we go with the bad 2nd frame *again* (though it wasn't the worst 2nd frame we've seen), but the lack of offense from the Caps really has more to do with this loss than the "overpowering attack" of the Canucks.  In general, neither team played very heavily in the offensive end.  There were not a whole lot of shots on goal for either team (20-27 in favor of the Canucks.)  One could argue that Theo should have stopped more of what he faced, but the offense didn't do a whole lot to help him out, either.

15) CAR 6, WSH 3 ("The Mulligan")
* 1st frame, Theodore saved 7:10 (.700)
* Ward saved 4:4 (1.00)
* 2nd frame, Theodore saved 8:9 (.888)
* Ward saved 13:15 (.866)
* 3rd frame, Theodore saved 5:6 (.833)
* Ward saved 11:12 (.916)

This game was marked by its overall suckitude.  I really don't even want to count it, because not one person on the ice was playing hockey.  This game was the one that happened the night of the Clark-Jurcina for Chimera trade was announced, and the team was in shambles.

16) WSH 2, SJS 5
* 1st frame, Neuvirth saved 11:13 (.846)
* Nabokov saved 3:3 (1.00)
* 2nd frame, Neuvirth saved 9:10 (.900)
* Nabokov saved 11:11 (1.00)
* 3rd frame, Neuvirth saved 8:10 (.800)
* Nabokov saved 10:12 (.833)

No captain, very little offense, especially in the 1st frame, contributed to this loss.  The 3rd frame was horrible for Neuvirth.  That the Sharks held us to 3 shots on goal in the 1st frame was unspeakably bad.

17) LAK 2, WSH 1
* 1st frame, Neuvirth saved 10:11 (.909)
* Quick saved 4:4 (1.00)
* 2nd frame, Neuvirth saved 3:3 (1.00)
* Quick saved 12:13 (.923)
* 3rd frame, Neuvirth saved 4:5 (.800)
* Quick saved 10:10 (1.00)

Again, no captain, and damned little offense... Neuvirth's 3rd frame was bad, but four shots in the 1st frame didn't help our chances to score a goal.

18) TBL 7, WSH 4 (the only loss with Captain Ovechkin)
* 1st frame, Neuvirth saved 11:15 (.733)
* Smith saved 6:7 (.857)
* 2nd frame, Theodore saved 4:5 (.800)
* Smith saved 4:5 (.800)
* Niittymaki saved 9:11 (.818)
* 3rd frame, Theodore saved 14:16 (.875)
* Niittymaki saved 13:13 (1.00)

In a game where both teams' goalies were chased from the net, our offense was in shambles, and the Caps had 9 penalties to kill off - and both Bradley and Steckel got fighting majors - there's not much good to say about this particular game.  Michal Neuvirth had a particularly rough night, but that said.... I was at this game, at least for the 1st frame of it; we would have been OK, if we hadn't been called for NINE of the 13 penalties called against us (including two fighting majors and a 10-minute miscondut) in the 3rd frame, giving the Lightning SIX power play opportunities in 20 minutes... two of the penalties went to Backstrom, three to Ovechkin, and one to Bradley for instigating the fight with Downie (which, personally, bullcrap, but still...)  That many penalties kills offense.  The game was 5-4 at the end of the 2nd, and we never managed another goal.  That Theodore kept them to two when we were shorthanded for 12 of the 20 minutes is nothing short of a miracle.