...then there's Nashville GM David Poile's dilemma about what to do with Dan Hamhuis if he doesn't think he can re-sign him. But you can forget Poile trading him to San Jose for a host of reasons. I think Hamhuis would look pretty good in Washington, and the Caps have some assets they could move, including Alexander Semin, who was brought under contract this season but could be expendable given the team's offensive depth.
Scott Burnside, talking on the trade deadline. As ridiculous as trading for Semin likely is, as I've said on here before, Washington is a prime trading partner for Nashville.
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Is that link supposed to link to this very page?
by sixsevenfiftysix on Feb 4, 2010 1:15 PM EST reply actions
nope
my bad, fixing
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Hold the Line (Caps Blueline that is)
First of all, I like what GM Poile has done with the limited resources he has in Nashville. I think they are in the bottom 3 teams for team salaries (along with Phoenix and NYI), but are still scrapping away for their playoff spot.
I’d like to see us bring in another experienced D-man, but I don’t think a straight up trade Semin for Hamhuis would be worth it….maybe if they change it to Shea Weber in the then it’d be a deal. Weber (NHL Allstar last year) is a little younger and has more uptick than Dan Hamhuis. Plus, Nashville will need the firepower to compete with the likes of the Hawks, Sharks, Kings, etc… in the Western Conference and I believe Semin provides them that.
agreed-sort of
Hamhuis for Semin straight up isn’t even remotely fair. Hamhuis for Fleischmann is “fair”.
As for Weber, I’m sorry, (well not really), but he will never, ever be traded. Most foresee a cabinet full of Norris Trophies in his future, and the only Cap that would get Poile to accept an offer is obviously not available.
Ovechkin is Washington’s franchise player, Weber and Suter are Nashville’s. Fuhgettaboutit.
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If NSH wanted to offer us Weber for Semin, I’d take that in a heartbeat. They’re not going to do that, though. Weber’s one of the top five or so DMen in the entire league and he’s getting better every season.
The question, as always, is does we lose or gain goal differential by this trade? Who do we plug in at 2C? I assume that it’s BMo, then someone else moves to 3C, who’s likely less effective in the role. So we’re reducing the effectiveness of the second and third lines to increase the efficiency of the defensive pairs. I’m not sure where Hamhuis gets slotted on this D, but it can’t hurt to have a D-pairing where both players are puck-movers. Getting pinned in our zone, unable to break out and then pounding out shots, hoping for rebounds is how the Pens beat the Caps last season; the more puck-movers the D has, the harder that is to do.
Hamhuis is playing against stiff competition – his QualComp is almost identical to Suter’s and he plays with much weaker teammates. However, he’s also at 3.05 GAON/60, versus 1.96 for Suter. His total GVT is far lower than Flash’s; 3.1 vs. 9.1. This, however, is misleading – Flash has a higher GVT than Shea Weber. There’s no way Poile makes that trade, ever. So I’m not sure what to make of that stat.
Another interesting tidbit to note – the Preds goalies are sporting far lower SV% at 5v5 when Hamhuis is on the ice than their other D. With Hammer out there, they’re saving 88.4% of shots against. That’s by far the lowest on the team, with the exception of Kevin Klein – for reference the Preds are sporting a 92.6% with Weber out there and a 93.4% with Suter out there.
He’s also sporting the worst GAON/60 on the PK at 10.13, while playing the most PK time per game. I’m not really sure I’m on board with the Hamhuis trade here.
He’s an upgrade over the logjam of 6/7/8 D that we have, but I’m not at all sure he’s better than a 5D on this team. I’m even less sure that he’s worth giving up our 2C for.
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by Knee high to a duck on Feb 4, 2010 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Really great stuff, Knee. This reminds me a lot of the discussion I had with D’ohboy about the Flyers’ goalie woes. It’s hard to tell if it’s the D or the G that is primarily driving that Sv% difference, but considering it’s the same goaltending I think it’s fair to say that Weber is doing a better defensive job than Suter, who is doing a better job than Hamhuis.
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
Other way around with Weber and Suter, I think. Suter’s defensive stats jump off the page on BtN; by the numbers, the guy is a lot better than I realized.
Suter is sporting a 1.41 ES goal differential on a team that’s putting up a 1.04 on the year, best on the team by a mile and that includes Shea Weber.
I think I’d pull the trigger on Semin for Suter.
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by Knee high to a duck on Feb 4, 2010 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
wow, nice work
That really sheds some light.
A couple things. I won’t do this statistically, cause that ain’t my thing, but I can assure you that when NOT paired with Kevin Klein, Hamhuis is much, much better.
The defensive numbers don’t surprise me, Suter is actually a good piece better than Weber in the defensive zone. Weber will demolish you on offense and with an obscenely hard hit.
That said, Poile wouldn’t pull the trigger on a Semin for Suter swap. Suter is too young and too damn good. Semin seems like a 2nd fiddle type guy to me, Suter is a team anchor. Weber, too. Any trade proposals for these two will start and end with another franchise player, which I don’t see Semin as. We’re talking a Joe Thornton, Rick Nash type guy to open a discussion.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Weber and Suter combined for 5+ Norris trophies. And thats with my homerism turned waaay down.
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They’re going to have some stiff competition from Doughty, Bogosian, Green, Keith, Seabrook and Myers in the coming years, I’d be shocked to see them get 5. I don’t think 3 is totally out of reach, though. A lot of that is going to depend on how well the people voting on this recognize Suter’s value, he’s not so flashy.
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by Knee high to a duck on Feb 4, 2010 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
agreed
Weber is likely to win more, as he’s got more name recognition and has a much better style to watch. Suter may actually be more effective, IDK. Thats why they make an awesome pair.
I agree on the above defensemen except Bogosian and Seabrook. Seabrook especially is overrated and is mostly on the coattails of Keith…
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Bogosian is dealing with growing pains right now, but he’s a special player. I think you’re underselling how good he can be, especially on a team that isn’t as awful as ATL is.
I haven’t seen anything stat-wise that makes me think Seabrook is underrated or riding on Keith’s coattails, although they are out there together a lot.
So here’s my question – if Hamhuis is much better playing without a bad defender on his pairing, how valuable is he to the Caps? We’re not exactly swimming in top-4 guys and he’s almost guaranteed to spend some signifcant time out there with a 6/7/8 caliber defender. If he’s playing to his partner’s level, that’s great if he’s paired up with Mike Green, but I don’t think he can eat all those minutes.
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by Knee high to a duck on Feb 4, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
2 things
First, Seabrook probably won’t have the offensive numbers to win the Norris. There are enough solid defensive guys that will score more that he’ll be overshadowed.
Second, Hamhuis is probably a top 2 pair guy on the Caps so he’d likely be paired with Green or Poti. Seems like that’s a good deal better than playing with Klein. Why do you seem to think he’s a 6/7/8 guy? Why would the Caps bother trading for a guy like that?
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
uh
Green or Poti would be a huge improvement on the 2009-10 edition of Kevin Klein.
Even when Hamhuis is paired with Franson or Boullion, he’s much better. So that argument may be a little faulty.
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in clarification
From what I can tell, it seems to be just Klein that he has a problem with. Anyone else he’s been paired with, he’s looked infinitely better. He had his best game of the season on Tuesday.
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Klein did or Hamhuis did? I was being mostly sarcastic with my Green/Poti comment; obviously they are upgrades. My point was that the Caps don’t need to worry about Hamhuis being dragged down by a weaker partner if they pick him up to bolster their top 4.
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
gotcha
Yeah, my biggest issue with Trotz this year has been his inability to break up Hamhuis/Klein. ALL the evidence is there….
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Why do you seem to think he’s a 6/7/8 guy?
What’s the context of this question? Or rather, what specifically is it addressing?
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by Knee high to a duck on Feb 4, 2010 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
So here’s my question – if Hamhuis is much better playing without a bad defender on his pairing, how valuable is he to the Caps? We’re not exactly swimming in top-4 guys and he’s almost guaranteed to spend some signifcant time out there with a 6/7/8 caliber defender.
We have 3 top 4 guys. You know who they are. Hamhuis would be the 4th. That means he’s not playing with the 6/7/8 guys so the concern about playing to his partner’s level isn’t really a concern. And he could be a fine 5/5 partner for Green. He’s not going to get the PP minutes Green gets so that’s where their TOI will diverge.
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
We have 3 top-4 defenders when they’re all healthy, but that’s far from a guarantee. All of them missed significant time last year, either in the playoffs (Schultz), or the regular season (Poti and Green). Even with Green technically not missing time in the playoffs, he was far from 100%. Given the shuffling that BB does with most combinations, it wouldn’t shock me to see a Hamhuis/Erskine pairing, or a Hamhuis/Mo pairing and that’s what worries me about playing to the level of his partner.
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by Knee high to a duck on Feb 4, 2010 6:13 PM EST up reply actions
don't know much
About Erskine, but I can tell you, as I did above, the only D-partner I’ve ever seen Hamhuis have trouble with is Klein. They’re like oil and water. It doesn’t seem to be so much about playing down to his partner as it is playing down to Klein.
With someone else, Hamhuis is roughly equivalent to Seabrook in terms of effectiveness, IMO.
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What is Klein’s style? Do you have any theories about why they don’t work together?
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
they're actually quite similar
Both are above average at moving the puck, and have an underrated offensive skillset. Klein is considered the slightly more physical of the two, but not by much. Klein will fight if pushed, Hamhuis, not so much.
Hammer is considerably better shutting people down, though. On Saturday, IIRC, he drew Kovalchuk and basically nullified him.
Did you see the hip checks from DH I posted here on Tuesday? He has likely the most obscene hip check I’ve ever seen.
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which
to answer your question, may be why they don’t work well together. Our successful d-pairings have total opposites as partners.
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How well does he skate? How’s his defensive awareness?
If he’s coming here, he may end up paired with Green, who joins the rush and pinches all the time. Gets plenty of opportunities out of it, but it does lead to some odd-man breaks against. Is he good at defending those?
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by Knee high to a duck on Feb 4, 2010 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
great skater
Above average awareness.
He pinches in the least out of all our d-men. Klein will come up and contribute while he hangs back, typically. On occasion he gets caught out of position deep inside the NSH zone, but I have zero memory of him getting burned on a rush.
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Hm. That makes him more attractive to me, you have to skate well to play effectively with the Caps.
If he’s a good enough skater to cover Green’s back, or good enough positionally in combination with his skating, or can play second pair and make a good first pass out of the zone, he’s worth trading for. Still not sure if I want to give up a player from our weakest forward position, though.
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by Knee high to a duck on Feb 4, 2010 6:51 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed about not wanting to move a C, but we aren’t going to get him for chump change. I’d rather send something like Fehr/Bouchard but I don’t know if they’d go for it.
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
but
Wouldn’t you have to change your username?
May I suggest “Ham and Cheese”?
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Green eggs and Ham.
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by Knee high to a duck on Feb 4, 2010 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
Ha. I’ve struggled with the username thing for a while now. Fehr has seemingly been on the way out for a while, what with all his trips to the dog house. I just have a hard time picking a new one; I have so much history wrapped up in this name.
And if I do change I’ll probably go to an old-timer who can’t be ripped away from the Caps again. The front-runner is Bondrage and Submission.
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
No, somehow I missed those hits. I love a great hip check.
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
coming up
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here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNgfHTE7y8w
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lxEafVP9GI0
First time I saw his hip check, I was at the rink and was right on the boards where he did it. Almost cried.
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Injuries happen. If you are going to play that card then you can’t make any concrete conclusions. We could have a Potsy/Erskine top pair in that case. My point is that on paper Hamhuis is in our top 4, and makes our D better. And in any event, if we do get injured (which we will) would you rather have Hamhuis stepping up or Erskine/Shamo?
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
If it’s just Klein that he has issues with, I’m dandy with having him on our blueline as 3rd or 4th D. If he’s playing up or down to his partner, then I can draw the conclusion that since injuries happen, he’s going to get paired with someone less than optimal for a guy with that trait, unless you put him out there with Green all the time at ES. Not a horrible solution if they can play well together.
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by Knee high to a duck on Feb 4, 2010 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
And Suter may be hurt by that very same “coattails” argument…
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
I doubt it
I think Suter would be a ton better standing by himself than Seabrook. Both he and Weber are generational talents, whereas in Chicago only Keith is.
Question:
You’re given one or the other to build a blueline around. You takin’ Ryan Suter or Brent Seabrook?
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Ryan Suter everyday. Sorry if it didn’t come off clearly, but I am a HUGE Suter fan. I don’t buy the coattails argument, but I certainly think some coughCanadianMediacough would buy into that. They love to ignore NSH, he’s American, and the golden boy Weber is above him on the depth charts. I absolutely wouldn’t be shocked to read the Globe and Mail talking about how Suter is protected by Weber blah blah blah.
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
it’s a small sample, but in the limited minutes Suter is apart from Weber, his GA/20 does increase.
Driving under the influence of hockey since godknow's when.
FWIW
I can’t remember the last time I saw them apart EV or PP. There hasn’t been any reason to split them, they’ve been any coach’s dream pairing. Weber provides the bone jarring qualities, and Suter is silky smooth.
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Good point FB. I think Semin for Suter is fair. Nashville has got their 2 D-men locked up for another 2-3 years, but I just don’t see them opening up their coffers and signing both of them long term. I think Semin will give the franchise some identity (hopefully not for the fighting or lack of focus side) and generate some excitement and more importantly on the O-side of the ice for the Preds which they need in the high flying western conference.
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