Jose Theodore: Consistently Inconsistent... Until Now?
by J.P. on Feb 4, 2010 2:30 PM EST
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PrintWhen the Caps made their first visit to Madison Square Garden a season ago, Jose Theodore - the team's big free agent acquisition and number one goalie (nominally, at least) - was struggling. He entered the game with a 9-6-1 record, an ugly 3.32 goals against average and an even uglier .881 save percentage. And on that night, a bad start to the season got even worse as he was yanked just 11:15 into the game after surrendering three goals on just five shots against. But when Brent Johnson couldn't start the second period, Theo found himself back in net... where he promptly let in another Blueshirt tally in the stanza's first five minutes.
Then something happened. To be a bit more precise, Alex Ovechkin happened. The rest, as they say, is history. And the history, as it relates to Jose Theodore, is that of a goaltender who in 66 regular season starts in the 13 months since that late-December night has gone 41-18-8/2.70/.909. That win total is obviously impressive (especially for a netminder who has slipped in and out of the number one role almost as often as Karl Alzner has been sent to and from Hershey), and those other numbers aren't bad either, especially for the backstop to an offensive juggernaut.
But consistency, of course, has been the issue with Theodore (at least in this Capitals incarnation of the former Vezina and Hart winner). You can look at the scorching 8-1-0/2.28/.930 January he just put together and legitimately wonder if February will bring another strong month or whether it will look more like November's 3-1-1/3.89/.873. Will it be closer to October's .915 save percentage or December's .891? Put another way, there's a reason that Theodore didn't see any ice time in any of the Caps' three post-season games in the building in which he turned his Caps career around, and it's not just because Semyon Varlamov was a revelation in the crease. It's also because consecutive poor outings in the spring can all but spell an early tee time on their own.
Jose Theodore has now gone eight consecutive starts without allowing more than three goals against (and is sporting a 2.09 GAA and .939 SV% in those games), easily his best stretch as a Cap. He's only allowed more than three goals in one of his last 17 appearances since November 14, compiling a 13-4-0/2.39/.923 line and his first back-to-back months with a sub-2.96 GAA as a Cap along the way, despite a relatively light workload; maybe he has added some consistency to his game. And the team in front of him is playing better than ever before - and he has bailed them out at least twice during The Streak with precisely the types of performances that turn otherwise ordinary goalies into post-season heroes.
But has he fully won back the confidence of his head coach? His teammates? His fans?
Given Varlamov's inability to get and stay healthy, Caps fans - even if they're not saying it aloud - have to be wondering whether or not they would feel comfortable with Jose Theodore starting Game 1 (and perhaps twenty or so more) of the playoffs this coming April. If you'd asked me a month ago, my answer would have been different than it is today. And if you ask me a month from now, it might have changed again. C'est la vie avec José.
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To answer the last question, I’m not a believer in JT60 yet.
Had the Bruins and the Lightning scored a couple or three goals and hit two or three pipes, instead of hitting five pipes, we’d be deconstructing the end of the streak right now.
Given Neuvy’s trouble with rebounds, we’ve got to keep our fingers crossed that Varly can come back healthy and stay that way.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
Yes, there were a lot of pipe strikes against in this streak. (PSA?) Many.
It’s something to remember, but one should also consider the stress it puts on shooters when you’re playing against a team playing as well as the Caps have been and their improved reputation. Some of those pipe clanks can be directly attributed as a positive side effect of the team’s improvement – its affect on opposing shooters.
Kind of like when people said the Caps protected the young goalies better than JT even though the SOG was about the same. Sometimes stats can’t capture everything.
and hit two or three pipes, instead of hitting five pipes
I think you can say that about most goalies. The fact is theo has played well when given consistent starts with or without the stats. Look at how much better his lateral movement, rebound control, positioning and reflexes have been. He is clearly in a zone and deserves to start almost every game until he clearly is out it, including the playoffs. I want Varly back as much as the next guy but if Theo keeps playing like he is currently, and I am not saying he will, he deserves to be the #1.
We’ve seen this movie before. Theo went 6-3 last January with a 2.18 GAA and a .919 sv %. He actually had a decent February and a respectable March as well before crapping the bed.
So no, I don’t trust him to carry the Capitals to the Stanley Cup. I hope to god he continues his excellent play, but I will be quaking in my boots if he’s our #1 in April.
Theodore? More like Threeorless! Hah!
He’s looked really strong lately aside from mishandling a puck or two. That said, his flopping, often-on-his-ass-in-the-crease style of goaltending gives me such anxiety, it’s keeping me from truly getting behind him.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
by jordanDC on Feb 4, 2010 2:43 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
The negative aspect of Theo’s wondeful play of late is that it makes it extremely difficult for McPhee to go out and pickup another G because, hey, who’s going to sit? That means that either Theo has to be playing well or Varly has to have rounded back into form and must be healthy for the playoffs. That is very worrisome to me.
I am not above thinking that Neuvirth is playing really well, too, and he is also showing improvement under Irbe’s coaching. We knew at the beginning of the year that we had several outstanding goalie prospects in the wings, and the only reason Neuvirth didn’t get to show himself more in the pre-season was that he was hurt. I’ve been a Neuvirth fan for a while now… I’m not horribly worried about the net.
I need a snappy signature...
Neuvy has had good stats lately, but the way he coughs up rebounds scares the crap out of me. I have the least amount of confidence in Neuvy as a playoff ’tender, compared to the other two candidates.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
Even if George could go get someone… who would you have him get?
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Lehtonen (yes he gets hurt a lot, but he’d just be an insurance plan anyway).
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
Once Varly is healthy (knock on wood), you then go with a Lehtonen/Neuvy tandem in Hershey, Holtby in the E?
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
Roloson might work. Niitymaki is intriguing. Another far-out possibility might have been Halak. I suppose it’s all moot now though.
especially since Halak got Mono
Driver and head Muckety-Muck of The Pavel Kubina Bandwagon
LORD PALMERSTON!!
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Feb 4, 2010 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
Halak is young and up and coming. He is looking for (and deserves) a shot to be No. 1. He won’t get that here but we’d still have to pay for him like a No. 1. It’s not worth it.
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
I’m gonna make a wild guess and say Edmonton signs him.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
I don’t think any of the proposed goalies, Lehtonen, Roloson, Niitymaki, or Halak would be an upgrade over Theo
Halak is a better goalie than Theodore, IMO.
Lehtonen’s hurt and who knows what he’d be able to do.
I like Roloson as a veteran back-up, but I don’t think that’s what the Caps need.
(And no comment of Niitymaki other than stay away from him at all costs.)
This confuses me. What would you have done before Theo’s hot streak? Trade or cut Theo? Send Varly down?
erskine has scored...now i can die in peace
Trade Theodore for Toskala!!
Driver and head Muckety-Muck of The Pavel Kubina Bandwagon
LORD PALMERSTON!!
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Feb 4, 2010 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
As soon as you can find one of those guys that’s available and can be had without giving up too much, let me know.
Driver and head Muckety-Muck of The Pavel Kubina Bandwagon
LORD PALMERSTON!!
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Feb 4, 2010 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
I think I’m atypical of a Caps fan in that, apart from the hissyfit-followed-by-explosively-bad-game, I have been pretty much in Theodore’s camp most of the season. I like the guy, I really do, and of late his play has been absolutely outstanding. He totally deserved the #1 star of the game that he got on Tuesday.
That said, I agree that his consistency has been up until now problematic.
Historically, Theodore plays his best in a contract year.
Right now, he’s very clearly at the top of his game. Even in 2002, the season when he won the Vezina, he never posted 8 wins in a row; his personal best was 7. In that year, he posted a .931 SV% and a GAA of 2.11; right now, he’s “sporting a 2.09 GAA and .939 SV%” across his 8-game winning streak; it’s a better SV% and GAA than he posted in 2002.
Granted that eight games is a really small sample size, but if he keeps it up, I’m happy.
That’s the key. “If he keeps it up…” I will continue to hope that he can, and will, do so… my fingers are really crossed, hard.
I need a snappy signature...
Isn't anybody here good at statistics?
JP, I’ve already kinda mentioned this before, but I’d like someone who knows their stuff to test out some statistical hypotheses. Because otherwise we keep talking about whether some goalie is at hot at the moment or not (and often just based on two games) when the variation in their game-to-game performance can generally just be explained by randomness.
So I think the CW of Theo being “consistently inconsistent” really just meant that he has a lower save percentage than we would like. It seems to me (and here I’d like the person who remembers even two course worth of stats to chime in) that his month-to-month SV% could fluctuate from .873 to.909 to .891 to .915 and all it would really mean was that his SV% the whole time was really .900. Even this past month of .939 doesn’t really convince me he’s veered off of being a .900 goalie. Basically we could test to 95% confidence intervals whether a goalie that just had a .939 month facing 600 shots could really just be a .900 goalie who had a decent month. If it’s a random process then that can happen. And maybe I’m not phrasing it perfectly.
I’d like to think he’s been playing better the last month, and my eyes see things (like rebound control, etc) that make me think he’s playing better … but I’m a human, and we’re designed to see patterns, even where they don’t exist. People write books about this stuff, others buy them. Could someone chime in with the statistical tests on what Theo’s “true” SV% might be?
No, I don’t remember stats. Similarly I wouldn’t read a bunch of law books for the first time before signing a weird contract when I could just ask my lawyer friend down the street (or online) about it.
He’s saying the person with the existing expertise should take care of it.
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
Assuming each game is independent and identically distributed (they’re not) and based solely on January’s results, we can say with 95% confidence that Theo’s true save percentage lies between .898 and .961. (using the average of the save percentages as the point estimator, and a t statistic with 8 d.o.f.)
by Pelleas on Feb 4, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Expaning this to all of his games this season, the lower limit becomes 0.853 and the upper limit becomes .930. For comparison, Ryan Miller is 0.909 to 0.942. Both at the 95% confidence level. This would mean there’s no statistical difference between Ryan Miller and Jose Theodore. That’s why you don’t trust statistics. :)
Lowest that’s typically used is 80%. Over the course of the season at 80% confidence, Theo: [.867, .917] and Miller [.915, .935]. Still no statistical difference technically. And again, the reason I believe you don’t see these things more often is that each game is so different that these numbers really don’t mean a whole lot. I had an awesome formula for predicting Vezina trophy winners based on goalie stats from the all nominees for the past 10 years or so that I’d like to post if I can ever find it.
At an 80% interval the top of Theo’s range barely catches the bottom of Miller’s. Plot their likely outcome distributions and I think you’ll find that Miller’s mean is significantly further to the right and less skewed.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 4, 2010 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
Huh. Not sure if that says much yet. Different question then: test the hypothesis that his SV% is .900, random from shot to shot (no correlation). Given that stopped 249 of 268 shots (I think those are the right numbers) in January, what can we say about the chance that his true SV% was .900 ?
(Hope I’m asking that intelligibly)
I feel like he officially won the fans back after the Detroit game. The type of game where the crowd oooos and aaahhhhs after every save have been few and far between during the past two seasons, but that night it seemed different… the kind of feeling you must have most nights as a Van or NJ fan, expecting (not hoping) your netminder to be tremendous in a shower of pucks.
I could’ve sworn that he shed a tear during the first star interview. Everyone stayed to listen. It was magical…
Theo for #1!!!!
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Feb 4, 2010 2:45 PM EST reply actions
The playoffs are all about consistency. No laughers, a lot of games in a short amount of time and fewer puck possession exhibitions to make the saves that come easier. We’ve got one who’s inconsistent with his health and another who’s inconsistent with his play. I’m not worried about the goalie situation, though. We don’t have to make this decision. BB will play both and whoever is hotter will get the edge going into the playoffs. I am not convinced about Theo until I see three straight solid starts after the Olympic break, though.
erskine has scored...now i can die in peace
I also think that Arturs Irbe as goalie coach has done wonders for all of our goaltenders, Theodore included. I’ve seen improvements in the play of each and every one of the guys between the pipes this season.
I need a snappy signature...
Theo has not convinced me that he is ready to be #1 golie yet. I would still be comfortable going in with Varly in the playoffs. He is well rested; so hopefully he will get hot right away.
I’m not so sure I’m ready to trust Varly at this point either. He’ll probably return after the Olympic break when there are only 20 games left. That’ll give him, what, 10 NHL starts the rest of the way at most assuming Theo doesn’t completely lose it? Then he’d have to jump right into the playoffs? I don’t like it.
I am not in the Theo Camp
Theo has on his own lost more games than he has stolen in the 1.5+ years he has been a cap. I maintain the caps only need an average starting goalie (meaning the goalie would be the ~15th best goalie in the world, which is still a tall task) to make a meaningful cup run. I still don’t think theo is that guy even with this great month where he has stolen 2 games (Det & Bos). While has been above average for the past month, I have no confidence that playing better than one could reasonably expect given his past few years of playing.
Theo also seems to play better with no one waiting in the wings for him to falter (with all respect to Holtby). It is only after Neuvi had his back to back poor games that Theo really stepped up his game during this current streak. So unless Varly gets hurt again, there will be someone breathing down his neck shortly and I would expect Theo’s game to falter again once Varly returns.
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
Theo has on his own lost more games than he has stolen in the 1.5+ years he has been a Cap.
Can you list specific games that Theodore has personally lost for the Caps all by himself without the rest of the team playing like shite in front of him?
I need a snappy signature...
Hard to quantify, I’d imagine. When your goalie is blowing ass, you sometimes stop trying, losing all confidence in your ability to win the game.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
It can go both ways, though… I can’t, off the top of my head, think of a game that has been singlehandedly lost by one player on the team… it’s all been team effort or lack thereof, as far as I can recall… I’m curious to find out if anyone has anything that stands out for them otherwise, though.
I need a snappy signature...
There were certainly all those times last season when he or BJ would let in a goal on the first shot of the game.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Feb 4, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
A game against Boston in which he took a triple-minor comes to mind.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
That game was during a stretch where we absolutely couldn’t afford to lose games, btw.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
Except we still made the playoffs so we could afford to lose games!
And Nick cost us the very next game.
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
Ooof. Bad memory.
I think I posted directly after that one that the playoff race was over.
What a moron…
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
I can
Theo first game against NYR this season
by washfan29 on Feb 4, 2010 3:21 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Nope...
If we accept the definition of “blown game” that J.P. posted, that one doesn’t count as an all-Theo’s fault either.
NYR 4, WSH 3
- 1st frame, Theodore saved 7:7 (1.00)
- Lundqvist saved 8:9 (.888)
- 2nd frame, Theodore saved 10:12 (.833)
- Lundqvist saved 9:9 (1.00)
- 3rd frame, Theodore saved 8:10 (.800)
- Lundqvist saved 8:10 (.800)
- Shot totals were 29-28 in favor of the Rangers.
- Since we did not score 4 goals, this does not qualify as a “blown game”.
I need a snappy signature...
JP’s definition is fine for statistical analysis because you have to put a threshold somewhere but I would rather just look at the goals themselves from the games and decide on a 1 to 5 scale how bad they were. Watch the replays and see how bad some of the goals were.
Further, your own goalie shouldn’t be judged by how the goalie across the rink played in one game.
Also, NYR is not an offensive team and so 4 goals for them is a lot whereas giving up 4 goals against say San Jose is not as out of the ordinary.
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
by MikeyGreen on Feb 4, 2010 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Further, your own goalie shouldn’t be judged by how the goalie across the rink played in one game.
The opposing goalie’s stats are up for comparison, not to judge.
I need a snappy signature...
Yeah, but I would rather go with the league save percentage, which I can calculate real quick (total league saves/total league shots) but if anyone has offhand I would appreciate it.
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
Pssst…
It’s not hard to find.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
JP’s definition is fine for statistical analysis because you have to put a threshold somewhere
Exactly. As I wrote below, these parameters would give you a very general feel for stolen vs. blown games but that specific performances were still very much up for debate.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I don’t care about stats, Theo and his gaping 5 hole blew that game.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
by jordanDC on Feb 4, 2010 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Agree with this as well. It’s been a combination of defensive improvement and goalie play. You can’t stop the puck when you can’t see it. The improvement of guys like Schulz and the positive reinforcement of winning and better decision making has helped make Theo’s job easier and will help whoever is in goal.
erskine has scored...now i can die in peace
You can stop a shot when you don’t see it just by butterflying in good position and staying tall. Theo (and any small goalie for that matter, Neuvi included) are hurt by their size because when they don’t see the puck they cover less of the net than a larger goalie. So smaller goalies either need to be better at some other aspect of the game or find the puck better through screens.
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
It doesn’t help that he’s small and a flopper.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
Which means he’s a Panger.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
Haha. He did have some good games before the defense improved though, I remember the Caps letting him down twice early in the season (have to look up the specific games) just like they lost a pair of 2-1 decisions for him last year.
"He's the heartbeat of our team"
Hockey Analysis defines two types of games that are relevant here:
Stolen Games: a game in which the team scored 2 or fewer goals, allowed 30 or more shots and won or a game in which the team scored 3 goals and allowed 35 or more shots and won.
Blown Games: a game in which the team scored 4 or more goals, allowed 25 or fewer shots but lost or a game in which the team scored 5 or more goals and allowed 26-30 shots, but lost.
If we accepted these definitions and someone would do the research, they could answer your question generally, though the specifics of each game would still be up for debate.
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I’d be interested in seeing that fanpost.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
Working on it now.
I will also include Neuvirth and Varlamov’s losses, for comparison’s sake.
I need a snappy signature...
Right now, I can point to individual frames where the goalie’s bad play may be directly linked to the loss, but not the whole game, if that makes sense?
I need a snappy signature...
Sounds like it should be interesting.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
I still think the fair comparison is an average goalie, not just a truly awful goalie. He was brought here to be an average starting goalie, paid like an average starting goalie, might as well compare him to one.
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
You pay an average goalie $4.5 mil/season?
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
He’s the 14th-highest paid goalie in the League per NHLNumbers. Pretty average, if you throw out the guys on entry level K’s.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Caps are weird though, in terms of shots they give up. I’m not sure these definitions work for this team as well as for others.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Feb 4, 2010 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, you can almost put money on them giving up 2-5 really high scoring chances a game with the rest being easy saves pushed to the outside.
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
This is what I meant.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Feb 4, 2010 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
Right. I think we’ve been fairly consistent here that we want a goalie that makes a couple of big saves and all the routine ones. We’ll take our chances giving up a goal or three.
Bad Theo makes no big saves and flubs a couple of easy ones.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
If the caps play their best, I could be in goal and they win, its the games when they play average and the other team comes out real strong.
NYR 4-3 loss this year comes to mind, up late and he gives up 2 goals from long range. (I am aware from Gaborik, they still need to be stopped)
Also the OT loss early in the year against NYI he had a couple he should have stopped.
His first game as a cap against Atlanta made me want to throw up where both he and johnny were very bad and the team still scored a lot of goals but couldn’t win it.
There aren’t a lot of losses but his name is all over a good number of them.
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
OK... let's look at our losses this season...
…which I think I’ll do as a fan post. :-)
I need a snappy signature...
I think Theo has actually been much better when his position is challenged. It’s when he becomes the entrenched No. 1 that he starts slipping.
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
I don’t really agree with that. Look at his current run, who is really challenging him?
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
well he’s been challenged all season and saw this current run as a chance to seize control. I’m inclined to agree with F&B.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
I don’t see how you guys can think that. He hasn’t worked that way. He basically waits until whoever is getting the majority of starts plays poorly and then if he’s lucky he takes over on one of his hot streaks.
He hasn’t taken over by playing very well when another goalie is playing well. That’s what I think of when I think of a starting goalie being pushed by a challenger.
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
His streak started after Neuvirth won the job and Theo sat on the bench and “only worked here.” Then he got in the net and didn’t give it up. When Varlamov first got hurt I thought his play slipped because he didn’t have any pressure. I thought it was similar last year as well. Maybe it’s just coincidental and that kind of stuff is bound to happen with a streaky player, but I’ve always felt like the competition made him better. Whenever he started to look like he was comfortably the No. 1 is when he’d slip.
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
Wouldn’t you say he’s been the comfortable number 1 for awhile now and he has played well longer than other times when he was basically the number 1?
I think trying to figure out a science behind his streakiness could drive even James Randi insane.
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
He’s been the No. 1 for just a few weeks now. Not all that long, and it followed a period when Neuvirth was getting all the starts.
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
The plays better with pressure still makes me think of a goalie that can take the starting job without waiting for whoever is putting pressure on them to completely blow it or get injured.
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
Trade Theo?
I know it sounds radical but hear me out – his value is at its peak right now. He’s playing great and his contract will be up so somebody might want to bite on him. Meanwhile, we could do a three-way trade that allows us to grab someone in the Roloson or Niitymaki bracket.
That way, one of those two can play the role of steady backup who can fill in at moment’s notice while Varlamov takes a majority of the starts and is our clear #1.
Wouldn’t trading Theodore for Roloson or Nittymaki be a sideways move at this point? Are either of those guys REALLY that much of an upgrade?
Driver and head Muckety-Muck of The Pavel Kubina Bandwagon
LORD PALMERSTON!!
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Feb 4, 2010 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
Yes and no. With Theo there is always going to be the possibility of disaster, which is why he’s not an ideal backup IMO.
There’s also no chance now that Theo gets benched for Varly once he comes back. Basically a trade would be the only way to make Varly the #1 and get him the playing time he needs to be in playoff shape.
But how are you so sure it wont’ be Varly’s show? Jose’s playing well, but I suspect it will revert back to the system it was before he started playing well. Remember Jose’s “I just work here” thing?
Driver and head Muckety-Muck of The Pavel Kubina Bandwagon
LORD PALMERSTON!!
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Feb 4, 2010 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
The question I guess is, how many games do we think Varly needs to have under his belt after he comes back before we’re comfortable with him in the playoffs?
If he comes back after the olympics and makes most of the starts, as I assume he will based on what they were doing before he got hurt, that should be enough.
Driver and head Muckety-Muck of The Pavel Kubina Bandwagon
LORD PALMERSTON!!
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Feb 4, 2010 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
I suppose practices at Vancouver with the Russian national team (if he’s healthy enough to go) would be pretty good warm up for NHL games when he gets back
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Feb 4, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
With Theo there is always going to be the possibility of disaster, which is why he’s not an ideal backup IMO
I’m not so sure. I think that’s generally how players get to be backups – when you can’t rely on them to perform at a high level every night. (See Johnson, Brent and 28 others, give or take a few).
And on top of that, I’d agree that at this point Niitymaki or Roloson or goalies of their ilk would all be in the “potential for disaster at any time” category and would thus be a sideways move. Roloson’s probably the better of the two, but I don’t see the Isles moving him when they’re within range of a playoff spot – and we’ve already proven this year that he can be lit up.
BJ is a better back up because he can stay focused without lots of starts. Theo doesn’t seem to have that mentality. BJ broke down when given several starts, but for 1 in 5 he was reliable. Theo needs to be on a role, and backups just don’t get to do that.
Roloson is definitely the better option but he’s a douche bag and has another year on his contract so I don’t really want to see him come here.
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
What playoff team would need him?
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
Claude Giroux. Lulz.
It would be fun to bring up Alexandre and have two Giroux’s. We could call them the Deux Giroux’s
Driver and head Muckety-Muck of The Pavel Kubina Bandwagon
LORD PALMERSTON!!
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
by YvonLabresMoustache on Feb 4, 2010 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
Hard to envision them having the cap room for him. Harder to envision GMGM trading a guy who might come back to bounce you out of the playoffs a month or two later.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Might be a good backup for Quick.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
Good call. Then you have to worry about what we get back from them (Sean O’Donnell?) and what we do about a back up.
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
Well, if the reason the Caps don’t reach the finals this year is because Jose Theodore beats them in a Flyers’ uniform then they probably weren’t going very far to begin with. He’s never going to be Ryan Miller. But I see the point in not wanting to give him the motivation to do it.
I kind of threw the trade idea out there as a bored-on-a-Thursday discussion topic. I realize there’s a .000001% chance anything like that really happens.
I trust GMGM but I don’t think that you mess with a good thing for the moment. It would be real helpful if Varly could give us some starts at Hershey or DC before the Olympic break to help make this decision easier. Competition for time on a juggernaut is the motivation. It’s helping our D to know Carlzner’s behind them and it’s helping our goalie to know Neuvirth/Varlamov is behind. I think Neuvirth helped light a fire under Theo and taking away competition is how you end up like other local squads.
erskine has scored...now i can die in peace
This Theodore we’ve been seeing lately is a really good one. I say just let him keep doing his thing.
Dallas Stars 4 Life: Stars Blogging From Hockeyville, Iowa
I'm a girl. The screen name can be misleading, I understand.
by Brad_Richards_Rocks on Feb 4, 2010 3:01 PM EST reply actions
Yeah, but will he? That’s the whole point. To date, he hasn’t been able to translate a hot streak into a good season. And he was flat awful at times earlier this very year. So it would seem likely that he’s due for a bad patch.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
But we’ve still got 25+ games left for him to hit that bad patch. If he hits it, there’s time to right the ship (or at the very least turn to Varly / Neuvy / prayer) before the playoffs; if not, we’ve got a goalie soaring into the playoffs with all the confidence in the world, playing behind the best team he’s ever played behind and doing so in a contract year.
My money’s on Theo. Just sayin’ ;)
At this point, I think that’s the only reasonable alternative. No goalie out there really makes sense to get. It’s cross your fingers and knock on wood time in Capsland.
I’m more skeptical than you, though.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
Hope is all I have, my friend. Jose’s who we’ve got, and even if I wasn’t usually a blind supporter of Theo I have to put my faith in him because as you said, no goalie out there really makes sense.
And I just don’t get on board w/ the idea that goaltending is make or break for the Cup. Lesser goalies have been dragged there by great teams, great goalies have dragged lesser teams. At the end of the day it’s a crapshoot.
I’m more skeptical than you, though.
Ah, but are you more judgmental (or bitchier, for that matter)?
Heh. Would I try to take your crown from you?
Will agree wholeheartedly with the crapshoot nature of the tournament. We’re rolling with JT60 or Varly, and taking our chances.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
agreed. he’s playing out of his mind right now. and i don’t know, but i assume being mentally sound has a lot to do with how a goaltender is playing at the moment. if you pull him now, or attempt to trade him and it doesn’t go through, i think you can pretty much write him off for the rest of the season.
though i’m biased. i personally like theo and would love to see him stay.
If I’m reading caps Insider correctly, Varly is now iffy for the Saturday game in HER. And Neuvy is recovered from whatever-it-was.
Miss you, V.
IS KEPTIN NOW
Where do you see that on Insider?
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
TEB:
Boudreau also said that Semyon Varlamov “might” make a rehab start for Hershey on Saturday against Wilkes-Barre.
Brian McNally:
Also, goalie Semyon Varlamov practiced and felt good on Tuesday. He stayed behind when the Bears went to Norfolk on Wednesday and took shots from the position players who didn’t make the trip. Varlamov got a full practice in today and another is set for Friday so “he might” start against Wilkes-Barre/Scranton on Saturday, according to Boudreau.
Contrast with notes on Neuvirth -
TEB
Michal Neuvirth, who missed a start in the minors because of a lower-body injury, practiced with the Bears and is “fine”, according to Boudreau.
Brian McNally
Goalie Michal Neuvirth was apparently not hurt this week while playing at Hershey. “He practiced full yesterday and full today,” Boudreau said. “So he’s fine – honest to God.”
IS KEPTIN NOW
I am completely content on riding whoever has the hot hand come playoffs. IMO the caps have 4 very capable NHL goaltenders. Should Theo fall off and Varly comes back healthy play Varly. If theo stays hot play him.
Sure having a goaltender by committee isn’t ideal and doesn’t have the look of a Stanley cup champion but the same can be said for having Trent Dilfer as your starting QB in the superbowl. The caps do not have an elite goalie and will not be able to obtain one this year. However, they do have several options that are more than capable of winning the Cup with the team that is playing in front of them.
OK, should have said 75% agree, but I 100% agreed with the sentiment about not needing a stud per se. We’ve got 2 young good ones IMO (Varly Neuvy), one notoriously unstable (Theo), and one question mark (Holtby). I’m fine with that myself. Not ideal, but it could be much worse. If Theo tanks BB will give him the hook fast.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
Varly – capable
Theo – sometimes capable
Neuvy – not there yet
Holtby – ::snort::
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
So you would trade for another goalie?
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
No, I wouldn’t.
We’ve got to roll with what we’ve got, at this point.
I must apologize for the snort thing – on rereading, it looks a lot worse than it sounded in my head. Sorry.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
neuvy is on par with theo right now in my book
when he’s good, he’s great. when he’s bad, he’s terrible.
by Area 51 Forever on Feb 4, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
I do think we have at least one goalie who will be very capable come Spring. I’m not sure who that is, but, I do think one of them will step up.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Feb 4, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Nice point – with three guys available, there’s a decent shot one of them is hot at the right time.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
Theodore is in BB’s doghouse the second he has one of his classic shitthebed moments. This really isn’t a question of “if” he blows it again to me, but “when.”
The way Theo plays can lead to some outstanding performances but it can also lead to him getting burnt by millimeters — which leads to goals which leads to his confidence getting zapped.
He’s not the genetic freak Hasek was yet you see him get down in the crease and start performing break dancing moves when he clearly has plenty of time to get into a better position.
Jose is awesome when he is really confident in himself, on top of the crease, and playing with sound technique. It just doesn’t last.
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
It’s really his goaltending style that keeps me from really trusting him. That and his streaky track record. Mostly the style, though.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
Had fallen into a period of not following hockey due to a move to WV at that time, but even if he would be putting up shutouts every night, he’d still give me panic attacks with his flopping.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
That was purposeful flopping. Theo’s isn’t half the time.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
My heart just stops when he’s on his ass in the crease, pulling himself along by the heels of his skates. Happens soooo much.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
I hear ya. Theo doesn’t exactly pop up either.
What people don’t appreciate about Dom was that his movements were purposeful and his reflexes were amazing.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
I’m not convinced that the period or amplitude of the Jose Sine Wave have changed. On the other hand, I would definitely believe that the average (i.e. the midline, the “zero point”) has gone up, for several reasons. 1) The team truly has tightened up its defense. 2) It’s a contract year. And 3) He’s been here more than a year, he seems comfortable, his teammates seem comfortable with him, and just generally he seems to “fit” better this year than last year.
.909 probably ain’t good enough to win a Cup for this Caps team. Close, but not quite. .920 probably is. But four consecutive bad games puts you out of the playoffs. Can he keep his lows from dipping low enough and lasting long enough to keep the team rolling through the 20some games of a Cup run?
I, for one, am happy that we have Varlamov and Neuvirth waiting in the wings. In my mind, at least one of those guys should be good enough to keep this team afloat and put them in a position to win. Then it’s on the skaters to execute.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Feb 4, 2010 3:41 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Wondering what the periodicity of the TSW is, actually?
Agree with you on the zero point.
.920 is a slam dunk for a Cup win for this team. That’s Henrik Lundqvist this year, and no doubt he would be good enough for me. The question for me is, what about .912 or .914? Theo might put those numbers up over 20 games against good teams, if he’s hot. That’s kind of where I put the tipping point.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
Whatever happened to the line of argument that goes “the Caps only need an average goalie so long as the offense is explosive [it is] and the defense has improved [it has]?”
I’m no less confident in Theo than I am in Varly’s health and stamina through two playoff months. Which is to say, if Theo’s still the hot hand in April, go with it.
I’m still on that wagon but I think when Theo is off he is way below average. You aren’t only looking at him giving up a soft goal but he’s going to be giving one up at a really bad time followed by another.
His off games are more to the tune of a .75sv% than an avg .90sv% too.
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
Nope...
Of the games I’ve looked at so far, the worst frame Theodore’s put up was .700 (2nd frame against the New Jersey Devils in that 5-2 blowout loss). Most of these losses, and by “most,” I literally mean 8 out of 10 so far, the problem was the horrible 2nd frame. And even in that loss, Theodore’s SV% was .782 overall, but that has been the worst, by far.
I need a snappy signature...
almost like it's a Team Sport:
the problem was the horrible 2nd frame.
Wasn’t this the rap against the whole squad, back when they occasionally lost?
Whatever happened to the line of argument that goes "the Caps only need an average goalie so long as the offense is explosive [it is] and the defense has improved [it has]?"
That’s a fine argument and I agree. Problem is, Jose is rarely an average goalie. More often than not, he’s either white hot or nearly unplayable. .
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I don’t think I would characterize his Game 1 performance last spring as “unplayable.” And he didn’t get another chance.
Varly did, however, burn out, and he’s been battling some ailment more than he’s been healthy. But an improved defense would save him from making acrobatic save after save.
So that’s just my point: I don’t think it’s clear except to go with who’s hot.
I certainly don’t advocate acquiring another goalie. If anything, the Caps can use two like the Wild did in 2003.
by Stephen Pepper on Feb 4, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
I didn’t characterize that performance as unplayable (and, FWIW, I referred to his off nights as “nearly unplayable”).
But Jose has appeared in 31 games so far this year. Know how many he has had a SV% above .900 and below .919 in? One. ONE! That’s a pretty amazing statistic and speaks to his all-or-nothing nature. His stats overall may say “average,” but he very rarely turns in an average performance.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Feb 4, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
It is amazing.
Following that through, in his playoff career from 2001-02 to date:
He’s played in 44 games, and had a SV% within your “average” just 8 times. In sixteen of those 44, he’s had a SV% above .919. So average or lights out in 24 of 44.
by Stephen Pepper on Feb 4, 2010 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
Ergo, bad in 20…yech.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
Right – “nearly unplayable” 45% of the time.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I hate to be the stat geek but:
Do we need a standard deviation of save percentage stat thrown out here?
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
Yes.
Throw it.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
I don’t. All I need to know is that the dude’s feast or famine and rarely in between.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
In Pepper’s sample above:
45% – nearly unplayable
18% – average
37% – outstanding.
::shudder::
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
On the quick and dirty. (Noting that generally the higher the # the more volatile a goalie is)
Theo has a St. Dev of 0.1038
For Comparison, Miller is 0.0558 (which is remarkably consistent), Huet is 0.10875, Marty 0.0947
I only figured how to do each goalie individually and at some point have some work today so that is enough different goalies for now.
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
by MikeyGreen on Feb 4, 2010 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
I don’t. All I need to know is that the dude’s feast or famine and rarely in between.
Exactly. It’s like he’s got all these goals, but almost all of them come in games where he scores 2 goals. He rarely just scores 1. He’s either dominating the other team or invisible. Wait… who are we talking about?
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
I’m gonna pull back a bit on how amazing this stat is, given that there are relatively few combinations that’ll land you in this range – with the Caps’ defense, we’re talking about allowing 3 goals on between 30 and 37 shots or 4 on 41-49 shots against. But still, just one game with 3 goals allowed and 30+ saves seems low.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
As the Caps give up an average of 30.6 shots-against per game, I don’t think you need to pull back that far. Basically, he’s usually facing 30+ shots, and either giving up 2 (gonna get you a W on most nights) or 4 or more (probably going to get you a L).
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
Matt Bradley and M.I.A.
Noticed a real gem in this interview about music preferences – apparently Brads insists on playing Paper Planes by M.I.A.
Can’t help but imagine he hears it in his head when he’s fightin’ around the world.
I think you have confused this thread with the Caps clips thread.
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
by zephyr on Feb 4, 2010 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Posts on the great play of Theo and Poti in the same day? You guys are killing me.
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
Read between the lines, comrade… this isn’t a post about the great play of Theo.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
True, I was just making a joke at myself because two of my most frequent whipping boys are playing some pretty good hockey.
And, to answer the post, no I’m not sold on Theo having solved his consistency problems. That’s the nature of inconsistency; you can’t just say you’re consistent again based on short term brilliance.
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
Old pirates, yes, they rob ‘em
Keep pucks out of hockey nets
Minutes plenty Poti’s skatin’
Man in box owes him a debt
Jose’s glove hand was made strong
And his pads, they are mighty
They whipping boys, now they winning
Triumphantly
Won’t you help to sing
This songs of vic’try
‘Cause Poti and Theo can sing
Redemption songs
Redemption songs
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Feb 4, 2010 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
the man who skates himself
in circles has moved
and Boudreau’s got consistent lines
have no fear of the one called Crosby
(not of his skill nor of his cryin’)
maybe Ted will find some profit
while we rock the red and look
but if he meets Lord Stanley
BB will write another book
Green should skate the wing
Erskine’s been solid
Redemption song.
redemption song.
by redlineblue on Feb 4, 2010 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I know this adds nothing to the discussion, but…I love you both. Awesome.
by Becca H on Feb 4, 2010 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Clever, original and funny adds something, in my opinion. The problem is figuring out when you have something that meets those criteria, heh.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 4, 2010 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Unfortunately based on yesterday’s Clips discussions I think the second part of this statement is subjective to an individual’s POV.
Much like a democracy, success requires acceptance of things that may not be to ones taste taste level however high or low that may be. But then a good blog – just like a good country – is not a true democracy either
It’s a plan to make the team overconfident so the streak ends and we can go into the Olympic break doubting ourselves and go into a tailspin we never recover from and spend the summer talking about the things that could have been.
Mike Wise will of course attribute it all to poor-decision making by GMGM, thus clearing The Rink of any wrongdoing.
hell no i don't feel comfortable with him at all!
not only because he is an extremely streaky goalie that will break our hearts in half eventually, but because he now has by far the worst contract on the caps, and it is horrendous.
So, you don’t feel comfortable with him in net because you don’t like his contract?
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
partly because overpaid players generally suck
take the new york rangers and montreal canadians for example…
by Area 51 Forever on Feb 4, 2010 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
They’re overpaid because they suck.
Bad Theo is not worth a bucket of day old spit. Good Theo is worth a lot more than his contract.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
2 years, $4.5M per is horrendous?
Chris Drury making $7MM is horrendous. The Spearing Midget, Wade Redden, DiPietro…those are the types of contracts that are horrendous.
Theo’s contract is marginally overvalued. But it can be lived with. And, aside from Nylander, who has a bad contract on the Caps? Pothier at $2.5MM is probably worse than Theo, imo.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
theo is easily overpaid by 2 mil if not 3 and pothier is overpaid by 1 mil
basic math. theo’s if worse.
by Area 51 Forever on Feb 4, 2010 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
Number one, $2.5MM per year takes you into Roloson (career backup), Mike Smith (not very good) and Carey Price (young guy) territory. If you’re hiring an established veteran to be your #1 goalie, as the Caps did with Theo, you’re just not going to get one for $2.5MM annual salary. FWIW, $1.5MM takes you down to Ray Emery (reclamation project) and Marty Biron (iffy backup) territory. Theo, for all his warts, isn’t in that company.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
by fat_daddyo on Feb 4, 2010 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Rolo carried a team to the finals.. just saying.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
This goes back to Becca’s point, which I agree with. Any goalie can get hot and carry a team.
We’re just hoping that one of our guys hits that form.
I don’t want Rolo.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
It also helps when Chris Pronger is playing some of the best hockey of his career in front of you.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 4, 2010 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
If we can trade for 2006 playoffs Pronger, I don’t care who we have to give up if his name doesn’t start with O and end with vechkin.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 4, 2010 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
Even if it’s a Swede whose name rhymes with Snackdrum?
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
That’s the toughest call because of how weak we are at center behind the golden-haired magician. I don’t know, but Chris Pronger was absolutely dominant during those playoffs. 21 points, 24 GP, +10 with some absurd ATOI. He was quintessential shut-down D with Mike Green regular season offensive numbers.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 4, 2010 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
No chance. It’s not a tough call either (sorry, Knee). As good as Pronger was for that one year, the Caps are going to be much better off with Backstrom long term. (And of course, there’s no guarantee you’d get that Pronger.)
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
There’s no chance I would do it for current Pronger. No way, no how. The only way I would pull the trigger is if we were assured EDM Pronger from the 2006 playoffs.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 4, 2010 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
I’m with you except for DiPietro. His issue is health. If he was healthy he’d be earning his money.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
That’s part of it, though. The Isles have locked themselves into a $4.5M cap hit for the next 11 years on a guy that can’t stay healthy.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
I’m not disagreeing that it was probably not a great move to sign a goalie, any goalie, to a long term deal like that. However, the money he’s making per year is average goalie money now. It’s manageable. And when he plays he’s productive unlike most of the other guys you mentioned.
The DiPietro thing is a pet peeve of mine. It’s not even him, who I don’t care about one way or the other. It’s that people act like the contract is ludicrous and its not.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
Good points.
I’ll retract my horrendous contract comment with regard to DiPietro. He’s manageable.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
This was a very good contract for the Caps. Imagine being stuck with “Fools Gold” Huet for another year at 4.5. Or how about another TWO years at 5.625.
Russian Machine very rarely breaks.
It didn’t have to be Huet or Theo, it could have been neither.
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
If neither, then who?
Theo was the only colorable #1 out there, and he was willing to take a short term contract.
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
You aren’t getting a viable number 1 on the FA market for less than $4M.
Russian Machine very rarely breaks.
Bingo. The nature of the position dictates that if you have a proven number one, he isn’t going to be cheap.
"Now wait a minute. This is just purely a social call. You know, just two adults getting a stew on, man."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Feb 4, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
The general consesus seems to be that McPhee really didn’t have any other play. Theo was the best available option at the time as a bridge to the young kids and a passable solution for a #1 goalie. What should GMGM have done instead?
It isn’t like we got a #1 goalie in Theo. Brent Johnson and Theo were #2 and #2A last year. Varly played real well last year in the playoffs. Did that ~50 games in hershey really matter that much. Did we need a bridge?
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
You couldn’t have gone into the season with Brent Johnson as your #1 and said that you planned on contending for a cup with a straight face. At least with Theo there was potential to do so.
And after the loss in Atlanta in the first game you couldn’t say Theo was a cup winning goalie with a straight face. Bruce agreed after the first game of the playoffs.
Theo was awful last year. He had the 40th Save % in the league. Just because the common opinion was that GMGM had to do something doesn’t mean he had to do something.
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
I still think Huet would have really blossomed here but it’s really tired to keep bringing him up. The Caps tried to get him, he walked, we have what we have. You can’t really say he would have been awesome or bad here as a base of comparison based on what he is doing elsewhere.
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
Meh, I think you can draw some conclusions. CHI is a much better defensive team than the Caps, so it’s fair to say he wouldn’t be any better here. You can also fairly conclude that his contract would have messed up the Caps goalie situation worse than Theo’s.
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
Agreed. Nice penalty shot form, asshole. Ever heard of the five hole? I wish someone would design a piece of equipment that could block the 5 hole…
Sew up your heart, grow a pair, and watch hockey.
Burka with pads?
"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP
I don’t know if this has been mentioned yet, but one thing to keep in mind is that if last spring is any indication, BB is not hesitant to switch goalies in the playoffs.
If Theo is outplaying Varly into April then he has to be the guy going into the playoffs. If he struggles pull him out put Varly in. You don’t want to dig yourself into a hole, sure, but if he earns it he earns it, and why not ride the hot hand?
What’s good is we know Varly CAN play in the playoffs (assuming he’s healthy of course). The only reason Theo got the start going into game 1 last year was because we didn’t know that then. Lord knows Theo’s play the last few weeks of the season didn’t merit that start.
by BradleyFightingVehicle on Feb 4, 2010 4:36 PM EST reply actions
I think a good gauge of Theo’s value will be what he makes this off-season in his new contract. I think he will be in the 2 year $2MM per year range if the off-season. Obviously, it depends on how he does the rest of the way.
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
He’ll also be 35 next year, I believe. His value then will be different than what it was when he was 32.
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
53 | 25 | 17 | 11 | 61 |
|
Washington
|
54 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
56 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
53 | 23 | 24 | 6 | 52 |
|
Carolina
|
55 | 20 | 25 | 10 | 50 |
(updated 2.10.2012 at 9:27 AM EST)
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