Caps top Prospects
by Rob Parker on Feb 26, 2010 2:13 AM EST
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PrintA few days back J.P. linked to a couple things by Corey Masisak. The first included Corey's belief that Carlson has surpassed Alzner. The second was Corey's top 5 prospect tweet. That got me thinking about which Caps prospect I think are most valuable. (Ok, you got me, I already think about that on my own constantly.) I'm going to submit my list, but I'm going to include top ten. The criteria is anyone listed on HockeysFuture's prospect list. (A boon for the Chris Smith Lobby!) I'd include criteria for valuing players, but we all know everyone is going do whatever they want anyway.
1) Karl Alzner
2) John Carlson
The only question here is whether it's Alzner or Carlson that comes first. These two are the class of the farm system. Alzner gets the nod for a couple of reasons. First, he has the potential to be the best defensive player we have on the team, hands down. Schultz is good, but the way Alzner skates and thinks the game puts his ceiling much higher. Carlson may end up being great offensively, but it's not likely that he'll ever seriously threaten Mike Green. Carlson is going to be a stud for a long time, and having a second defenseman that can move the puck up ice and confidently play with it in his own end is going to be great. He also has the potential to be a more traditional PP QB with a huge point shot. Obviously either may not reach their potential, but on a team with this much offensive firepower you can't overstate the importance of a stud who makes his name keeping pucks out of the net, so I'll go with Alzner. The second reason is that he'll stay cheaper for longer. On a team that's going to be paying the Young Guns (or at least three of them) big dollars for many years it's important to keep a constant supply of cost-controlled players. Carlson is going to score more and thus get a bigger raise sooner.
These two come next because of scarcity. 2C is the position that looks most suspect long term, and it's a position that's costly to continue to fill via free agency. Johansson gets the nod because he's younger, and far ahead on the development curve. Playing in the SEL as a teenager is an incredibly impressive feat (remarkably remarkable?). He also has spent time at wing and center, and wore the C internationally. With his youth, quicker development, versatiliy, and intangibles you have to give him the nod. Oh, and he's a little bigger. MP has shown that he can be an effective NHL player. Now he needs to show he can do it for 82+ games a year. This off-season will be a big one for him, hopefully he comes to camp and opens eyes. If he hadn't have shown some promise with his cup of coffee he would have fallen below the goalies. Next year probably won't be the year that one of these guys fills our 2C hole, but I think 2011-12 is realistic, if hopeful.
There's bound to be a lot of disagreement over these boys, and perversely if there weren't so many of them any of them could have been higher. The fact remains that these guys are all still young goalies and far from proven; and the real value the Caps have is in the numbers more than the individuals. Varlamov gets the nod because he's still young so hopefully the injury stuff goes away, but it's a huge concern. He's still the best one right now, and the most athletic so he has the highest upside. If he doesn't get and stay healthy, he's going to start dropping quickly. Holtby gets the next spot because he's proven to be a workhorse for a few years now and he has absolutely lit up the AHL and ECHL to date. He also is a couple years behind the other two, so we can give him a couple more years before having to make a decision with him. He really makes Neuvirth more expendable right now. Neuvirth is still a solid prospect, but he's on a parallel track with a better player and has another hot on his trail.
He's nowhere near the most skilled of our prospect pool, but he's a one of a kind in our system. His toughness and intangibles are well known around these parts. How many dudes celebrate their birthday with a bare knuckle fight? Sure, there are guys with better upside, but if you all recall DMG's stance on Ryan O'Reilly leading up to the draft, that's where I'm coming from. To paraphrase, we don't need the game breaker at this point, we need a guy that will work his ass off, do the little things, and is a safe bet to be an NHL player. That's how I see SDR.
9) Oskar Osala
Between a slow season for OO and big seasons from Laich and Fehr (particularly in front of the net) OO has slipped further than he would have at the start of the season. He's still the best bet to be a big power forward for the Caps, and no team can have too many of those guys, but his skating is still a question and he hasn't dominated the AHL as I'd hoped the former RoY from Finland would.
10) Dmitri Orlov
You can never have too many good D that can skate and play with the puck, and that's Orlov's game. He's also the best player left. If we didn't already have Green and Carlson the hype and excitement for Orlov would be even higher. Let's just hope the KHL doesn't rub off on him too much.
Honorable Mention: Cody Eakin
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How many dudes celebrate their birthday with a bare knuckle fight?
Not just a bare-knuckle fight, but a bare-knuckle fight with 40 seconds remaining in the third period of a game your team is leading by a score of 5-3. Unreal.
Is it just me or does he look a little like Marlon Brando in this pic?
Now helping to keep an eye on all things Gr8 at Alex Ovetjkin.
Heh. He got into it with his friend and former teammate. Outstanding.
There should be video in a day or so, and certainly by the time the Caps Farm Report goes to press.
Now helping to keep an eye on all things Gr8 at Alex Ovetjkin.
Yeah – have we given up on him already? I’m not expecting very much out of the kid, but he was a first round pick, so you have to commit at least a little bit of effort in getting him where the team envisioned his career heading back on draft day.
Kid isn’t a Pokulok.. yet.
Sorry, but so far he’s done nothing to show he’s an elite prospect so far. If that changes then he’s moves onto the list for sure. I’m not banking on that happening. Hope I’m wrong.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
by Carl Putnam on Feb 26, 2010 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
I see what you’re saying, but would you consider SDR and Perreault elite prospects? They are on this last, after all.
I realize my use of the word “elite” is easily debated, so let me explain further. Elite prospect to me is a guy likely to make the NHL and stay in the NHL for years. That doesn’t mean they will be an elite NHL player which may be where people could confusion the terminology. A good prospect has a decent chance at making NHL, but is not anywhere close to sure thing. A marginal prospect has a shot, but odds are likely they won’t make NHL or at least won’t get significant time in the league. Just how I look at things.
"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich
by Carl Putnam on Feb 26, 2010 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
Angus probably wouldn’t even crack my top 20. I don’t really care about where he was picked. He was drafted two years ago and he’s still not in the AHL or SEL. He’s got the skill but I question his drive. If he ever pans out, great. But I doubt it.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
I pretty much agree with these rankings other than Osala. He has a lot of upside given his size and decent scoring touch but I’m getting concerned with his development earning only 4th line minutes in HER (accompanied by a scoring drop and an even +/- on a team full of big +s, though at least in part due to his 4th line status). Maybe it’s a lack of higher end speed or hockey sense that’s stalling his devopment? I hope I’m wrong but I do think there’s enough of a concern that he shouldn’t be this high on a top prospects list. I would drop Osala move Eakin up because he seems to have the drive that will just about ensure that he has an NHL career (much like SDR), albeit possibly as a 4th liner maybe a 3rd. Kugryshev is also interesting given he’s near the lead in points in the Q and maybe his WJHC snub has given him extra motivation. Not quite sold on his work ethic just yet however.
I think Kuger might have passed Osala this year. On a team as dominant as the bears, Oskar’s numbers need to be better. Andrew Gordon is having a marvelous year, but I’d have preferred to see Oskar claim that open 1st line wing slot. He didn’t.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Feb 26, 2010 9:27 AM EST up reply actions
Oskar also is a shitty skater and isn’t getting much better at it.
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Yeah, when I saw him at training camp I thought his skating was poor. Too bad he really hasn’t gotten much better. Guys like that take a little longer to develop so I have hope, but if you can’t skate you can’t play.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
I’ll be interested to see if Kugryshev can overcome his size deficiency at the pro level as well as Perreault has.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
I don’t think size is nearly as big an issue for Kuger. He’s a little undersized but he’s not like MP I don’t think.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
Nah, he’s pretty tiny as of last prospect camp.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
Kuger was another narrow miss. He’s probably right after Eaken for me. He plays in the Q though, so he’s going to need a lot more work on his defensive game. And as much as I love to rip on Russian hockey decisionmaking, coaching, etc., it kind of rubs me the wrong way when such a young player publicly does it. If some of the Russian veterans rip Bykov after the Olympics, that’s one thing. But having kids who haven’t done shit start yapping about the coaching just strikes me as them being spoiled brats. Maybe that’s not fair, but I’d just rather young kids shut their mouth and take care of what they can.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
My impression is that he’s a skilled player, but wasn’t he the guy who dropped first in conditioning tests at each of the last two Caps rookie camps?
He’s still young, but that says something.
If Varly and Neuvi still fit the criteria to be listed here, I have to think they are #1 and #2. A stud goalie is just so valuable to any team. They’ve both already demonstrated that they can win at the NHL level, so you have to say they are relatively far along in their development (whereas Carlson and Alzner, while looking solid, haven’t proven much with the big club). I just see a much higher probability that one of the goalies has a major impact on the future Caps than anyone else on the list.
I completely see where you’re coming from, I just disagree. I know that goalies are real important, but they just take a lot longer to figure out. I don’t think any of our goalies have proven anything yet. Carlson and Alzner haven’t proven anything in the NHL yet, in the sense that they aren’t established. But watching them play convinced me that they both have the skill to do it. Goalie is such a mental position that just having the skill isn’t enough. Look at how many guys can have great years and then disappear.
If we lose any of the goalies, we still have two more to rely on and we only need one to work out. If we lose either of Carlson or Alzner then our future blueline immediately looks much worse.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
And as important as goalies are, every year it seems one of the top 10 is someone who changed teams in the last year or who was available as a free agent. I think it’s more important to develop your own D and Forwards — good goalies can be purchased.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Feb 27, 2010 9:49 AM EST up reply actions
I’m not sure if this is related or not, but I also think it’s a good idea to keep goalies on a short contract for this reason. I have no problem giving D or Fs longer contracts but a goalie contract over 3-4 years sets off alarms for me.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
Farjestads team spokesman says that Johansson is healthy now and playing really really well. They’re really thrilled with him.
And a reporter who covers Cody Eakin says they really really hope Cody stays with the Swift Current Broncos next year. Can’t get enough Cody!
Now helping to keep an eye on all things Gr8 at Alex Ovetjkin.
I absolutely, certainly assuredly, unmistakeably, without a doubt, sure enough agree.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Feb 27, 2010 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
If he can play top line minutes on an SEL playoff run he may be further along than I expected. I still think he’ll need to start next year in HER to learn the smaller rink and the Capitals’ system but he could definitely see some NHL time next year. I just hope he stays at the C.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
As a leading member of the Cody Eakin lobby (I think), I’m just pleased to see he nearly made this list. Another season, kiddo…
"Camaraderie, that's what the Washington Capitals are all about."
by CapitalCentre on Feb 26, 2010 7:02 PM EST up reply actions
I’d include criteria for valuing players, but we all know everyone is going do whatever they want anyway.
Haha!
I like your top 5 but I value Carlson higher than Alzner now. Anyone ever feel that Alzner is too smart and thinks a bit too much? I feel like he might be twice as good right now if he could just turn his brain off come game time.
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
I can see where you’re coming with Alzner over-thinking things, but I just think that’s his game. His game is to know where the play is going and being a step ahead. That’s harder to do in the NHL and when D get caught thinking they usually look bad. I think Schultz went through a lot of that last year. As Alzner gets more comfortable with the speed of an NHL game I think the thinking will slow down and he’ll just be reading and reacting. Carlson does look like the more instinctive player right now, but a lot of that is because of his offensive tendencies, IMO.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
It’s a hard game to play because you are always questioning everything and end up getting lost in your thoughts. It’s a really fine line to walk IMO. I’d be really happy if he did a similar or better progression of what Schultz did from last year to this year.
I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.
Constantly being moved up and down and in and out of the lineup can’t help at all with his over thinking his play either. He knows that if he makes the slightest mistake Bruce is gonna cut his ice time or he’s going back to Hershey.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Feb 26, 2010 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
I’d put the goalies ahead of MP and M-Jo. I’m eager to see more from MP next year and the following. M-Jo…I think the jury is still out on whether this guy is even going to be a viable NHL player. Not to say he won’t but he hasn’t asserted himself like Alzner, Carlson, Neuvy and Varly.
One other minor quibble: I don’t rank the prospects based on need. A guy is a prospect or he’s not. We might be thin on centers, but probably nobody is calling about them, whereas I’d say every other GM would inquire about one of our goalies.
Nice job.
Russian Machine very rarely breaks. Oh and f**k Brooks Orpik.
Ranking based on need and sheer potential definitely creates different lists. I have no doubt that other GMs would prefer to get Varlamov over MP. I approached it more from a “which prospect would we miss the most if he was traded” angle.
As for Mackan, the only reason he hasn’t asserted himself like the other 4 you mentioned is because he’s playing in Europe where we don’t normally get to see him. But I can’t remember a recent (~last decade) example of a player who was able to play in the SEL when he was 17 not being able to transition to the NHL. I have very little doubt that he’ll make it to the NHL. A while back I put up a FanShot to a post on the Oilers SBN blog that re-evaluated the last couple drafts. Mackan is doing very well compared to the other forwards he was drafted with, especially the Swedish forwards. The author suggested that this is because the SEL is underrated, a tougher league than we give it credit for over in North America (rather than all of the Swedish prospects except MPS and Mackan tanking). We’ll see if it’s true, but I wouldn’t write off performance in the SEL at all.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
Great list F&B. I’d bump Eakin to 8th, put Orlov at 9 and SDR at 10,
Based on what I saw at development camp and how he is lighting it up out West, Eakin seems the next best prospect. He’s listed at Center but played well on the wing in the scrimmages. He scored some goals at camp, including an end to end rush with a great top shelf goal over Varly with a D man draped all over him. Maybe I’m a sucker for speed and skating and I don’t want to go crazy but I see good things for this guy at the NHL level and he compares well with guys at that level who have the same size, speed and skill set.
I’d put Orlov next because he plays a more important position than SDR’s likely to play. He’s a pure puck moving defenseman with a lot of upside as he gets older and more experienced. Someone (YNC maybe?) posted a recent video of an end to end rush that was awesome. He threw his weight around well at dev camp and laid a least one guy out with a crushing open ice hit. He and Carlson were leagues ahead of any of the other prospects there.
As for OO, I’m not sure what he brings at this point that a guy like Trevor Bruess doesn’t. They are about the same age and both play the wing. OO’s on the 4th line in HER and Bruess got bumped to SC. OO’s bigger but Bruess is a sandpaper guy in the SDR mold, something the Caps need more of in my opinion. And Bruess is better skater to my layman’s eyes. Given an equal opportunity, I wouldn’t be shocked if Bruess surpassed OO in the organization.
I like Eakin as well, and as most of the regulars (should) know by now, I’m also a sucker for speed and skating. If you were to ask me to name one skill I want GMGM to draft for, skating would be it. (Hockey sense would be next). I guess I just want to see a little more from Eakin. Is this a fluke year or a break out year? (My bet: break out.) He also has some pesky injury history that I’d like to see him get clear of. He won’t be a top line player for us, but he could definitely be a good second line player. The more I think about him the more I think I may have under-valued him.
Orlov’s main problems are that he plays in Russia and he’s behind Green and Carlson. You aren’t normally looking for game changing offense on your third pair so unless he really solidifies his defensive game I’m not sure he really has a spot with us long term. I do love how much he likes to throw his weight around, though. He’s good, but based on watching the WJC (admittedly, I saw very little of RUS) he’s nowhere near the player Carlson is. Orlov looked to be holding his own, but Carlson was dominating.
OO brings a scoring touch that Bruess will never have. You give each of those guys a puck in between the hash marks and OO is the guy that’s going to bury it. His skating has always been the knock, and it’s unfortunate to see he hasn’t grown out of it. But those big garbage goal power forwards take a while to develop. Tomas Holmstrom was 27 the first time he got 40 points and 29 the first time he got 20 goals. (On the other hand, he was in the NHL full time at 24.) I could see Bruess passing OO, but they aren’t playing the same role. If OO doesn’t pan out as a scorer he’ll be gone. Bruess is going to be a checker in the NHL, if anything.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
Good points all. In this team, I see Bruess being more valuable precisely because he’s a better checker, skater etc than OO. Besides the Caps having no problem scoring, another reason OO may not work out here is this is a skating team. How does OO compare, skating-wise, with Holmstrom?
Orlov is valuable long term because Green or Carlson might not be here by the time he’s done marinating in the AHL. Do the Caps have someone else like him?
BTW, given Clips thread and Vokes rumours, you might want to consider flipping the top two spots as well.
I considered flipping the top two spots thoroughly. I stand by my ranking (at least up top, you all may have swayed me on Eakin v. OO). I have no idea how OO compares to Holmstrom skating wise because I just haven’t seen enough of him. I do know that Holmstrom is a notoriously bad skater to the point where it’s a running joke on DET.
You’re right that we may lose Green or Carlson before Orlov is ready. Right now we don’t have a replacement, but we will have 3 or 4 drafts before then so hopefully we can continue to bring in talent during that time.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
54 | 26 | 17 | 11 | 63 |
|
Washington
|
54 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
57 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
54 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 54 |
|
Carolina
|
56 | 20 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
(updated 2.12.2012 at 8:46 AM EST)
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