Your Olympic men's post-preliminary playoff scenarios!

by sixsevenfiftysix on Feb 20, 2010 3:58 AM EST

With only one game remaining for each team, the scenarios for what each team needs to have happen for a first round bye are as clear as they'll be. I thought it'd be fun (in a nerdy way) to break down which teams would get a top four seed depending on how the remaining games go down.

First, a primer. If you already know how standings tie-breakers work for the Olympics, you don't need to read this, but it should clear up any questions if you're unsure.

• The first step in establishing seedings for the playoff round is to rank teams within their groups. Teams are ranked based on how many points they receive (duh), and if there's a tie, head-to-head result is the tiebreaker.

• Next, we seed all teams 1-12. The first three spots go to the winners of each group (ordered by points). Spots 4-6 go to the second place teams, 7-9 to the third place teams, and 10-12 to the last place teams. Even if you finish third in your group with more points than another group's runner-up, you will be behind the runner-up team.

• If there's a tie at this point, we obviously don't have head-to-head to go by. First tiebreaker is goal differential. If that's a tie, it's most goals scored. If that's a tie, it's the better IIHF world ranking for 2009 (1. Russia; 2. Canada; 3. Sweden; 4. Finland; 5. USA; 6. Czech Republic; 7. Switzerland; 8. Belarus; 9. Slovakia; 10. Latvia; 11. Norway; 12. Germany). One note on the first two tiebreakers: the IIHF appears to award a goal for (even for the purposes of tiebreakers) for a shootout win.

• The top four teams (the three group winners and top ranked runner-up) receive byes to the quarterfinals.

• Why is a bye so crucial? If you get one, you only have to win one game against a lower ranked team that will have played the previous day in order to advance to the medal round.

Before I continue, one caveat: it's possible some of this information will be wrong in some way due to an error of mine. I did this quickly and double-checked, but if you think you spotted an error or something I didn't consider, let me know in the comments.

Alright. So, as it turns out, Saturday's games have NO bearing whatsoever on which teams will receive first round byes. The only results that matter for a bye are Sunday's three games: Czech Republic-Russia, United States-Canada, and Sweden-Finland. This is because only these six teams are still able to finish as either their group winner or the best overall runner-up (note, however, that the six teams tomorrow will not necessarily be the top six, as Slovakia can get as high as number five). Props to the IIHF for setting it up this way. Additionally, Sweden and Finland are functionally the same team at this point—both have six points. Therefore we can just refer to the winner or loser of this game as the S-F winner or loser (whichever team wins or loses would occupy the position indicated) without having to consider the possibility of either winning separately from other results.

Last note: if tiebreakers could be resolved (i.e., we know what both team's goal differentials would be because a game ending in overtime will raise the winner's GD by one and lower the loser's by one), I did so. However, a game ending in regulation could be decided by anywhere from one to eighty-two(ish) goals, so we can make no assumptions of who will win most tiebreakers.

Enough talking.

FINAL SEEDINGS:

1. United States

2. Sweden

3. Russia

4. Finland

5. Czech Republic

6. Canada

7. Slovakia

8. Switzerland

9. Belarus

10. Norway

11. Germany

12. Latvia

Old news:

Russia beats Czech Republic in regulation

United States beats Canada in regulation

Sweden-Finland ends in regulation

1-2. U.S./S-F winner tiebreaker (Finland wins tiebreaker; U.S. wins tiebreaker if Sweden wins by fewer than five goals OR wins 7-2, 6-1, or 5-0; Sweden wins tiebreaker otherwise)

3. Russia

4. Czech/S-F loser tiebreaker

Russia beats Czech Republic in regulation

United States beats Canada in regulation

Sweden-Finland ends in overtime

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1. United States

2. S-F winner

3. Russia

4. S-F loser

Russia beats Czech Republic in regulation

United States beats Canada in overtime

Sweden-Finland ends in regulation

1. S-F winner

2. United States

3. Russia

4. Canada/S-F loser tiebreaker (Sweden loses tiebreaker)

Russia beats Czech Republic in regulation

United States beats Canada in overtime

Sweden-Finland ends in overtime

1-2. U.S./S-F winner tiebreaker (Finland wins tiebreaker, Sweden loses)

3. Russia

4. S-F loser

Russia beats Czech Republic in regulation

Canada beats United States in regulation

Sweden-Finland ends in regulation

1. Sweden-Finland winner

2. Canada

3. Russia

4. U.S./Czech/S-F loser tiebreaker

Russia beats Czech Republic in regulation

Canada beats United States in overtime

Sweden-Finland ends in regulation

1. S-F winner

2. Canada

3. Russia

4. United States

Russia beats Czech Republic in regulation

Canada beats United States in regulation

Sweden-Finland ends in overtime

1-2. Canada/S-F winner tiebreaker

3. Russia

4. S-F loser

Russia beats Czech Republic in regulation

Canada beats United States in overtime

Sweden-Finland ends in overtime

1. S-F winner

2. Canada

3. Russia

4. U.S./S-F loser tiebreaker (Finland wins tiebreaker, Sweden loses)

Russia beats Czech Republic in overtime

Canada beats United States in regulation

Sweden-Finland ends in regulation

1. S-F winner

2. Canada

3. Czech Republic

4. U.S./Russia/S-F loser tiebreaker

Russia beats Czech Republic in overtime

Canada beats United States in overtime

Sweden-Finland ends in regulation

1. S-F winner

2. Canada

3. Czech Republic

4. United States

Russia beats Czech Republic in overtime

Canada beats United States in regulation

Sweden-Finland ends in overtime

1-2. Canada/S-F winner tiebreaker

3. Czech Republic

4. S-F loser

Russia beats Czech Republic in overtime

Canada beats United States in overtime

Sweden-Finland ends in overtime

1. S-F winner

2. Canada

3. Czech Republic

4. U.S./S-F loser tiebreaker (Finland wins tiebreaker, Sweden loses)

Czech Republic beats Russia in regulation

Canada beats United States in regulation

Sweden beats Finland in regulation

1-2. Czech Republic/S-F winner tiebreaker

3. Canada

4. U.S./S-F loser tiebreaker

Czech Republic beats Russia in overtime

Canada beats United States in regulation

Sweden-Finland ends in regulation

1. S-F winner

2. Canada

3. Czech Republic

4. U.S./S-F loser tiebreaker

Czech Republic beats Russia in regulation

Canada beats United States in overtime

Sweden-Finland ends in regulation

1-2. S-F winner/Czech tiebreaker

3. Canada

4. United States

Czech Republic beats Russia in regulation

Canada beats United States in regulation

Sweden-Finland ends in overtime

1. Czech Republic

2-3. Canada/S-F winner tiebreaker (Sweden loses tiebreaker)

4. S-F loser

Czech Republic beats Russia in overtime

Canada beats United States in overtime

Sweden-Finland ends in regulation

1. S-F winner

2. Czech Republic

3. Canada

4. United States

Czech Republic beats Russia in regulation

Canada beats United States in overtime

Sweden-Finland ends in overtime

1. Czech Republic

2. S-F winner

3. Canada

4. United States/S-F loser tiebreaker (Finland wins tiebreaker, Sweden loses)

Czech Republic beats Russia in overtime

Canada beats United States in regulation

Sweden-Finland ends in overtime

1-2-3. Canada/Czech/S-F winner tiebreaker

4. S-F loser

Czech Republic beats Russia in overtime

Canada beats United States in overtime

Sweden-Finland ends in overtime

1-2. Czech/S-F winner tiebreaker (Finland wins tiebreaker, Sweden loses)

3. Canada

4. U.S./S-F loser tiebreaker (Finland wins tiebreaker, Sweden loses)

Russia beats Czech Republic in overtime

United States beats Canada in regulation

Sweden-Finland ends in regulation

1-2. U.S./S-F winner tiebreaker

3. Czech Republic

4. Russia/S-F loser tiebreaker

Russia beats Czech Republic in overtime

United States beats Canada in overtime

Sweden-Finland ends in regulation

1. S-F winner

2. United States

3. Czech Republic

4. Canada/S-F loser tiebreaker

Russia beats Czech Republic in overtime

United States beats Canada in regulation

Sweden-Finland ends in overtime

1. United States

2. S-F winner

3. Czech Republic

4. S-F loser

Russia beats Czech Republic in overtime

United States beats Canada in overtime

Sweden-Finland ends in overtime

1-2. U.S./S-F winner tiebreaker (Finland wins tiebreaker, Sweden loses)

3. Czech Republic

4. S-F loser

Czech Republic beats Russia in regulation

United States beats Canada in regulation

Sweden-Finland ends in regulation

1-2-3. U.S./Czech/S-F winner tiebreaker

4. S-F loser

Czech Republic beats Russia in overtime

United States beats Canada in regulation

Sweden-Finland ends in regulation

1-2. U.S./S-F winner tiebreaker

3. Czech Republic

4. S-F loser

Czech Republic beats Russia in regulation

United States beats Canada in overtime

Sweden-Finland ends in regulation

1-2. Czech/S-F winner tiebreaker

3. United States

4. Canada/S-F loser tiebreaker (Sweden loses tiebreaker)

Czech Republic beats Russia in regulation

United States beats Canada in regulation

Sweden-Finland ends in overtime

1-2. U.S./Czech tiebreaker

3. S-F winner

4. S-F loser

Czech Republic beats Russia in overtime

United States beats Canada in overtime

Sweden-Finland ends in regulation

1. S-F winner

2. United States

3. Czech Republic

4. Canada/S-F loser tiebreaker (Sweden loses tiebreaker)

Czech Republic beats Russia in regulation

United States beats Canada in overtime

Sweden-Finland ends in overtime

1. Czech Republic

2-3. U.S./S-F winner tiebreaker (Finland wins tiebreaker, Sweden loses)

4. S-F loser

Czech Republic beats Russia in overtime

United States beats Canada in regulation

Sweden-Finland ends in overtime

1. United States

2-3. Czech/S-F winner tiebreaker (Finland wins tiebreaker, Sweden loses)

4. S-F loser

Czech Republic beats Russia in overtime

United States beats Canada in overtime

Sweden-Finland ends in overtime

1-2-3. U.S./Czech/S-F winner tiebreaker (Finland wins tiebreaker, U.S. wins tiebreaker if Sweden wins S-F)

4. S-F loser

So, what say you? Which of these 64 (counting all Sweden-Finland results) scenarios will come to pass?

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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Comments

tl;dr version

U.S. clinches a bye (obviously) with a win, will very likely receive a bye with an OT loss, and may still very well get a bye if they lose by a respectable margin in regulation.

by sixsevenfiftysix on Feb 20, 2010 4:00 AM EST reply actions

Also noteworthy: even if Russia wins in overtime, they probably won’t get a bye. Russia needs to win and needs to win in regulation.

by sixsevenfiftysix on Feb 20, 2010 2:38 PM EST up reply actions

wow….you had a lot of time to do all that work….

I root the the USA always – so I like any scneario that favors the USA (doesn’t necessarily mean a 1 seed - there could be an easier path to the gold medal game than a 1 seed).

U-S-A ! U-S-A ! U-S-A ! U-S-A ! U-S-A ! U-S-A !

Rock the Red! Rock the White! Rock the Blue! Rock the Pens!

by RedskinFan4Life on Feb 20, 2010 11:38 AM EST reply actions

Ha, it’s just a few addition problems, no biggie :)

by sixsevenfiftysix on Feb 20, 2010 1:13 PM EST up reply actions

Rec’d for exploring all the scenarios. That’s a lot of work to put in, nicely done and nicely explained.

Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!

by Knee high to a duck on Feb 20, 2010 3:17 PM EST reply actions

Another note of potential interest: should the U.S. fail to earn a bye, they will play against either the 12th or 11th place team (i.e., either Norway, Latvia, or the Germany-Belarus loser) in the first round. Smooth sailing?

by sixsevenfiftysix on Feb 20, 2010 5:02 PM EST reply actions

The 8-12 seeds are locked in.

8. Switzerland
9. Belarus
10. Norway
11. Germany
12. Latvia

by sixsevenfiftysix on Feb 21, 2010 2:22 AM EST reply actions

I kind of wish Germany had finished 12th.

Deutschland - das ist alles.

by Whiter Mage on Feb 21, 2010 10:06 PM EST up reply actions

Slovakia now locked in as number 7, and Russia as number 3.

by sixsevenfiftysix on Feb 21, 2010 6:01 PM EST reply actions

So matchups we know for sure right now (correct me if I’m wrong):

Slovakia vs Norway
Switzerland vs Belarus

by Cluster on Feb 21, 2010 6:23 PM EST up reply actions

The only results of today’s USA-Canada game that allow for a Russia-Canada Gold Medal game would be a regulation victory by Canada or an overtime victory for the US. In both cases, the result and goal differential of Sweden-Finland would still need to go a certain way.

by sixsevenfiftysix on Feb 21, 2010 6:20 PM EST reply actions

Canada now locked into the 6 seed and will play Germany.

If Canada beats Germany, they face Russia the next day. One or both of Canada and Russia will not medal.

by sixsevenfiftysix on Feb 21, 2010 10:04 PM EST reply actions

With the US winning today, in regulation, they are top seed unless Finland wins in regulation. If the Swedes win, the US probably gets in on the tie breaker since both the Swedish wins were relatively close while the US won by a lopsided margin vs Norway.

If the Finns win, they get in on the Goal Differential tie breaker as they essentially clobbered both Germany and Belorus.

Rocking the Red since 1975

by CapsFan75 on Feb 21, 2010 10:18 PM EST reply actions

All that is already in this post.

by sixsevenfiftysix on Feb 21, 2010 10:24 PM EST up reply actions

But now it has come to pass; i.e. the US winning. So, we’re left to speculate the ramifications of Sweden winning vis-a-vis Finland winning.

Rocking the Red since 1975

by CapsFan75 on Feb 21, 2010 11:13 PM EST up reply actions

Although Sweden is still able to catch the US with a blowout victory, as you sort of alluded to.

by sixsevenfiftysix on Feb 21, 2010 10:25 PM EST up reply actions

Although unlikely.

Rocking the Red since 1975

by CapsFan75 on Feb 21, 2010 11:13 PM EST up reply actions

If the USA do indeed get the number one overall seed, they will be able to advance to the final without having to play against Canada, Russia, or the Sweden-Finland winner. WOW.

by sixsevenfiftysix on Feb 21, 2010 11:12 PM EST reply actions

So now we should root for the Sweden/Finland game to go to overtime? Or root for the Swedes to beat the Finns in a close game?

Rocking the Red since 1975

by CapsFan75 on Feb 21, 2010 11:18 PM EST up reply actions

Either. Doesn’t really matter.

by sixsevenfiftysix on Feb 21, 2010 11:27 PM EST up reply actions

So how does Round 2 work anyhow? Does the #5 seed play the #12 seed? And the #6 seed playing the #11 seed; etc. And, based on the results of that, they reseed among who’s left, giving the 8th best remaining team to the #1 seed and the 7th best remaining team to the #2 seed? Or does it work totally differently?

Rocking the Red since 1975

by CapsFan75 on Feb 21, 2010 11:17 PM EST reply actions

5 plays 12, 6 plays 11, etc. Then 1 plays the 8/9 winner, 2 plays 7/10, 3 plays 6/11, and 4 plays 5/12. They do NOT reseed. So if, say, the 11 seed wins, they play the 6 seed, even if all the other favorites win.

by sixsevenfiftysix on Feb 21, 2010 11:29 PM EST up reply actions

Hey guys, realized there’s one error that I can’t edit because I’m on my phone. Sweden would win a tiebreaker if they win 7-2, 8-3, 9-4, etc—not just 7-2 exactly.

by sixsevenfiftysix on Feb 22, 2010 1:12 AM EST reply actions

Err, it’s all updated now to be correct, but this comment wasn’t quite right either. Haha. Watching a game and posting about such minutiae at the same time is pretty tough

by sixsevenfiftysix on Feb 22, 2010 2:40 AM EST up reply actions

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