Who do you want, and what would you give up?
Well with the break settling in and only a few days of Olympic hockey in said break, I have been thinking (as we all have, I'm sure) about the trade deadline and what moves we'd like to see GMGM make. There's been a lot of talk about which defenseman we should trade for (defense being our #1 concern), but not much from what I've seen in discussion about what we're willing to give up.
To those who are in the camp of "don't mess with team chemistry"/"our defense is fine! just look at the streak!" I kindly point you to this excellent fanpost: Analysis - Takeaways From the Streak. Return after you've read it and discuss.
For me, particularly, I'm a fan of Dan Hamhuis as our upgrade on the blue line - he's a solid shut down defenseman, and a team like the Predators can afford to give him away due to their excellent depth at the defenseman position. I assume that David Poile would want a replacement defenseman (The Cost of Dan Hamhuis) in addition to at least one forward to spark the Predators lacking offense. With these details in mind, there are, in my mind, a couple of trade scenarios. For the return defenseman, I think it would either be Brian Pothier or Shaone Morrisonn. Green and Schultz aren't going anywhere, Poti is currently our veteran defenseman, and Erskine/Sloan aren't exactly what Nashville's GM is looking for, to say the least. Since they're looking for someone to play big minutes, I say ShaMo goes. He's played big minutes with Green, and while he's clearly a downgrade for them, they'll take it because they don't need another puck mover like Pothier.
Then it becomes tricky. What forward do we send, if at all? Do we send a prospect? A draft pick? How much is Hamhuis (or any defenseman) worth for rental? My suggestion (for Hamhuis specifically) is either Fehrsie (which, admittedly, would depress me a tad bit, but he has fallen out of favor with Gabby it seems) or a prospect like Francois Bouchard. If necessary, I'm not opposed to sending a draft pick in addition, maybe second round.
So, my verdict:
Caps get: Dan Hamhuis
Preds get: Shaone Morrisonn, Eric Fehr/Francois Bouchard, 2nd Round draft pick (possibly)
So, my question to you: Who would you pick as the defenseman we need/want, and what would you trade for him, realistically? Your decision may factor in us trading for a second line center, back up goalie, etc. Please provide reasoning for your trade suggestions - if you still think we're fine, tell me why.
So Rink Rats - What say you?
Note: Been lurking for a while, but I'm interested to know what you all think so I'm joining the fray. I'd just like to say thanks to everyone for making the best community on a sports blog I've ever seen. You guys rock.
If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.
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i like it
id stay with a minor league prospect hopefully giroux would suffice in the predators mind, since he supposdly doesnt fit our system. Fehr is a good winger and one of the few we have that can drive the net. behind knuble and brooks hes i believe prolly the biggest net presence we have, and come playoffs time that might show important.
But Giroux is 28 and a tweener. I think that he would either want a proven nhl’er or a young prospect. Bouchard is only 21, so that would work, and Fehr is a proven nhl’er. Either would work in my mind, though I think that they would rather have Fehr, and I’d rather give up Bouchard.
I’d prefer we trade Flash over Fehr.
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Familiar Rapports: Bald Pollack, F&B, Gould Old Days.
Lobbies: Osala, Perreault, Erskine, Pothier, Neuvirth, Flash.
Fan of: Mean Lars Backstrom, Line Mashing, Cake.
by Whiter Mage on Feb 16, 2010 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
I wonder if GMGM could convince Poile to take some of our top AHLers for offensive players. . .Giroux, Wilson, Beagle, Aucoin, Gordon, Bourque, or even Perrault perhaps. . .maybe he says they could produce in Poile’s system over our barn burning system. I am a severe Flash lobbyist and a fierce friend of fehr, don’t want to see either one of them go. . .
Good stuff about the potential d-man, i bet Morrisonn goes if they want a replacement.
Then give a draft pick.
I bet Hamhuis would be willing to take a bit of a pay-cut to play on the Capitals
Still waiting for someone to draft Paul Newman. . .
Shaone Morrisonn and Francois Bouchard for Scott Niedermayer would make me very happy.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
I think it would take more than that. Morrisonn, Orlov and a 1st rounder sounds about right to me for Niedermayer. And I’d do that in a heartbeat.
Niedermayer is perfectly what the Caps need, in a way that the Hammer isn’t. The Hammer is just a top 4 d-man. Niedermayer is one of the best ever, he’s Green’s and Alzner’s favorite player of all time so he’d be a wonderful mentor (like Fedorov was), and he brings more Rings into the room than are currently there.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Feb 16, 2010 8:56 AM EST up reply actions
Did Knuble get a ring from his year in DET? I know he was on the team, but I’m not sure he did enough to qualify for a name on the Cup and/or a ring.
Either way, yes please to that deal.
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by Knee high to a duck on Feb 16, 2010 9:31 AM EST up reply actions
I think you may be right that that’s about what it would take to get him but I wouldn’t make that deal. Yes he has great intangibles but his best days are behind him. Make that Patrick McNeil instead of Orlov and I think it’s worth the risk. With Orlov, maybe that get’s you Hejda which I would do in a heartbeat.
Orlov and a 1st to rent Niedermayer? For serious?
Russian Machine very rarely breaks. Oh and f**k Brooks Orpik.
Personally, I don’t even think that’s enough. And since ANA is still in the playoff hunt I doubt they sell.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
I used to be in the Niedermayer lobby but when I saw Ovie put that move on him when we played last Jan, I thought Nieds was done. By getting him we’re only acquiring intangibles.
"If you want money, go to the bank. If you want bread, go to the bakery. If you want goals, go to the net." - Brooks Laich
"...I got the most gentlemanly player in juniors my last year. I'm a gentleman, always a gentleman." - Matt Bradley
On such a young blueline I think those intangibles can come in handy. And it’s not as if he can’t play anymore, and I’d bet he’s an upgrade over, say, Erskine or Morrisonn. He can skate, move the puck safely out of the zone still. Maybe not a shutdown pairing defenseman anymore, but he’s still good.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Feb 16, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
I used to be in the Schultz lobby but when I saw Dubinsky put that move on him when we played last April, I thought Sarge was done.
/just ball-bustin’
by Kerry Fraser's Hairspray on Feb 16, 2010 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm sorry but Scotty is WAY OVERATED
Everytime I’ve watched Scotty N he’s either deked outta his skates or trailing the play, I think the only thing that would be a bonus with him is his vet, been there done that resume and act
by washfan29 on Feb 16, 2010 6:52 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
If we give up an active forward for any D-man, we’d be asking for trouble without getting a forward in that return deal.
A lot of us have negotiated discussed with Chris Burton from On the Forecheck what getting Hammer would take. What surfaced, with us at least, was Nashville getting Fleischmann and Erskine and we come away with Hamhuis and Santorelli.
The return defenseman to Nashville really only has to be a body, as they have a pretty solid core of d-men. After Suter and Weber, they still have Klein, Boullion, and Franson, and a decent prospect or two in Milwaukee.
With us, however, giving up a Flash or a Fehr creates a hole, as currently one of those guys is a second line center, and the other a third line winger. As much as I love MP and Bourque, among others, there’s no one in Hershey ready to step up and play forward for this Caps squad on a level that gets us deep into the playoffs. A trade for Santorelli along with Hammer gives us a center, and (assuming we move Flash and not Fehr) B-Mo moves into the second line center spot, and Santo probably takes the third line center spot barring another trade.
The reason we would want to hold on to Erskine is that after you trade Mo, our defense looks significantly worse than it would after you trade Erskine.
Would you rather have
Hamhuis – Green
Poti – Schultz
Pothier – Morrisonn
or*
Hamhuis – Green
Poti – Schultz
Pothier – Erskine
Frankly, I’d rather see Alzner in that last spot, but since in the world of realism that won’t happen, you want the guy on a shorter contract, and you want the guy to be a decent defenseman.
One last thing to consider about Hamhuis is that our expectations for him would be really tough for a guy to fill. Poti and Pothier are two examples of defensemen we brought in who were really above average 3-4 pairing guys, tried to throw out as 1-2 guys, and they were clearly outclassed and outgassed. Hamhuis should be a 1-2 guy, but right now he’s a 3-4 guy, and without Weber and Suter, can he still be the defenseman he is?
I’d prefer Hamhuis over Niedermeyer, if only because Hamhuis can be a medium term player we sign without really crimping our team long term. I also think Neidermayer has kind of slowed down, and while I do think he’d thrive in a pairing with Green (and vice versa), I absolutely hate rentals.
Familiar Rapports: Bald Pollack, F&B, Gould Old Days.
Lobbies: Osala, Perreault, Erskine, Pothier, Neuvirth, Flash.
Fan of: Mean Lars Backstrom, Line Mashing, Cake.
how about they take Sloan then? He’s basically a body on D and he also plays as a forward, so it’s like they’re getting 2 guys for the price of one!
I’m not sure Santorelli is any better than MP right now. He’d still be in HER if he was Caps property.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
I kind of agree, but he and MP both are potential guys who could battle for the slot. I wouldn’t be extremely comfortable with either though.
Familiar Rapports: Bald Pollack, F&B, Gould Old Days.
Lobbies: Osala, Perreault, Erskine, Pothier, Neuvirth, Flash.
Fan of: Mean Lars Backstrom, Line Mashing, Cake.
hmm
Santorelli spent a lot of time in the bigs this year, beating out Cal O’Reilly and Colin Wilson for roster spots (since overtaken), so Trotz obviously saw something. If nothing else, he’s blazing fast and is just damn unstoppable in the shootout.
On the Forecheck-where Patric Hornqvist is never underappreciated.
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by Chris Burton on Feb 17, 2010 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
I personally have ZERO confidence in the Caps skaters going into shootouts now, so that would be a welcome addition (though carrying someone on the roster purely for that ain’t the way to go, of course).
We need some more juice
Jussi Jokinen?
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Feb 19, 2010 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
My mistake. I thought he had spent a lot of the season in the AHL and his numbers look rather underwhelming. His value is as much in his future development as it is his ability to step in now. Obviously we’ll need a body to play right now, and maybe he can do that, but we really need to be looking at a 2/3C for the future at this point.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
reason behind those numbers
Is because Trotz kept him tethered to Wade Belak and Jordin Tootoo, as opposed to giving him a shot with Erat or Hornqvist. Santorelli’s an offensive player and oughta be treated as such.
Like I said before, he’s a Rich Peverley situation. Put him on another team with room at the 2 or 3C spot and he flourishes.
He dekes so hard and fast in the shootout I get dizzy.
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by Chris Burton on Feb 17, 2010 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
He’s my center on the Admirals in NHL 10 for what it’s worth (absolutely nothing).
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
I think the Caps need to get a guy like Hamhuis but I can’t see GMGM giving up Flash or Fehr for a rental player of that caliber. Maybe they sign Hamhuis, maybe not, but I’d like to think it could be done for less. I’d rather give up Nashville’s choice of the d-man grab bag and Bouchard/Gordon/even MP. And/or a pick.
The Caps need to deal from their surplus, which is the defense. I worry about their depth at forward. Although he’s a fan favorite, Quintin Laing can’t be playing regular minutes come playoff time. He’s fine filling in for a game here and there, but that’s the most I want him in the lineup. I like the idea of Morrisson + prospects (MP/Orlov) + 1st/2nd for someone like Niedermeyer. In addition to being a solid defender, he does have offensive capabilities that our 2nd PP unit could definitely use.
by JimCareyFanClub on Feb 16, 2010 11:51 AM EST reply actions
While I would love Hamhuis, I’m concerned his price tag may be a bit more than i’m comfortable with for a potential rental. There are two teams / potential deals that I am keeping my eye on. …
First – Sutton (NYI). To me he’s a poor man’s Hamhuis with much more nasty in his tool box. A draft pick + prospect should be able to get Sutton. Pairing him with Poti would give the Caps a “shut-down” d pairing to go against opoosing top lines (think Crosby, Kovalchuk, etc) and free up Green to go against the 2nd tier (i.e. more O).
I also want to keep an eye on the Blues. I have grown a facination with the trade possibility of acquiring both Jackman and Tkachuk. Hear me out first – Jackman fills a need and is locked up at a very reasonable price for the next 3 years. He’s also young and still maturing. Now to get him alone you will have to offer StL a replacement D for this year as they’re still in the playoff hunt (ShaneMo, or Erskine, or Pothier) + a scorer/top 6 forward (Fehr/Flash) as that’s what they’ve stated their looking for in return. Now, if we were to offer ShaneMo + Fehr + pick/prospect then we create a roster spot (RW) to fill, hence also asking for Tkachuk. Tkachuk would provide extra playoff sandpaper we need, is flexible position wise (i.e. can play center if we become disillusioned with Flash and BMo), and would be a great 3rd line addition to BMo and Chimera. Now for such a deal to work, I imagine it would have to look something like this; tkachuk + jackman for fehr + shanemo and/or erskine or pothier + top prospect + pick. Does that sound about right?
In a perfect world, both my trades would go through and the lines would be;
ovie-backstrom-knuble
laich-flash-semin
chimera-bmo-tkachuk
gordon-steckel-bradley
(lots of flexibility with this roster as BMo could bump up and play 2nd line C with Flash moving to LW and/or Laich moving to 3rd line C and/or Tkachuk moving to 2nd line or 3rd line C, etc, etc).
green-shultz
poti-sutton
jackman-alzner (/ShaneMo,Pothier,Erskine)
(again, depending on who’s dealt lots of flexibility pairings wise; green-jackman, schultz-alzner, etc)
In the end though, if either or any of the above trades occured I would be happy (Hamhuis included). I just would hate to see us sit pat with the teams around us piling up for a Cup run.
"If you want money, go to the bank. If you want bread, go to the bakery. If you want goals, go to the net." - Brooks Laich
"...I got the most gentlemanly player in juniors my last year. I'm a gentleman, always a gentleman." - Matt Bradley
Jackman is a dirty SOB
Didn’t think the Caps wanted that type of player, as they don’t have anyone like that right now.
Other than that, I really don’t have anything to add to the Hamhuis talk other than what I’ve said elsewhere.
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by Chris Burton on Feb 16, 2010 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
and that is why I’d push for Jackman more. This team needs physicality for the playoffs. Sure they don’t have anyone like that now, but that doesn’t mean the need or debate for physicality on the roster doesn’t rage on. Besides, isn’t that often the difference in playoff series’?
"If you want money, go to the bank. If you want bread, go to the bakery. If you want goals, go to the net." - Brooks Laich
"...I got the most gentlemanly player in juniors my last year. I'm a gentleman, always a gentleman." - Matt Bradley
Bear in mind that Jackman and KT have NTC’s (not that either would sneeze at the chance to win this year)…I would like to see Jackman in red but if it means taking Tkachuk, passola.
Driving under the influence of hockey since godknow's when.
Agreed. I could live with Jackman (don’t love committing to him long term) but I would absolutely not want Tkachuk. He’s washed up.
Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.
Hamhuis – 3.9 GVT – $2.0m, UFA next year, 27
Shamo – 0.9 GVT – $2.0m, UFA next year, 27
Fehr – 6.8 GVT – $0.8m, RFA next year, 24
2nd rounder
Looks lopsided to me. If they were to add in Steve Sullivan, that would even out the GVT and I could get behind it.
Fehr is very cheap, very young, and quietly very productive this year. His trade value is far less than his value to the team.
Jackman – 5.1 GVT – $3.6m for 3 years, 28
Tkachuk – 2.3 GVT – $2.6m, UFA next year, 37
Shamo – 0.9 GVT – $2.0m, UFA next year, 27
Fehr – 6.8 GVT – $0.8m, RFA next year, 24
That looks much more reasonable than the Hamhuis trade, unless the Jackman salary would affect our ability to sign Backstrom.
haha
Steve Sullivan won’t be traded, sorry….
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by Chris Burton on Feb 16, 2010 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
The Jackman salary would be covered by ShaneMo and Pothier coming off the books (which would also free up another D slot for next year, hello Carlson?) so it shouldn’t hinder any Backstrom re-signing. The question is how fair is the above trade? I’m sure Caps fans would do it in a heart beat but per my post just above this, I doubt StL would be content with just ShaneMo and Fehr in return. Perhaps adding a prospect and/or pick would sweeten the pot. Still very do-able.
"If you want money, go to the bank. If you want bread, go to the bakery. If you want goals, go to the net." - Brooks Laich
"...I got the most gentlemanly player in juniors my last year. I'm a gentleman, always a gentleman." - Matt Bradley
Comparing GVT across teams isn’t necessarily that useful — check out the relative GVTs of Flash and Shea Weber or Ryan Suter. I’d break my hand on the fax button if Poile offered it, but the Caps lose that trade GVT-wise.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 17, 2010 2:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I thought the main upside of GVT was that it did a pretty good job of comparisons across teams. At least better than the most common stats.
I think the bigger problem with my analysis is that I’m comparing a forward to a defender.
Maybe a better way to look at it is that Hamhuis’s 3.9 GVT puts him as #4 D on NSH and would put him as #4 D on WSH. We can effectively call him a top-4 defender.
Fehr’s 6.8 GVT is #7 for WSH forwards, so maybe we call him a 3rd line player. Makes it a lot more palatable to say we’re giving up a true 3rd liner for a top-4 defenseman.
The theory behind GVT is to compare players across teams (like VORP in baseball). In practice, though, its dependency on plus-minus means that players on very good teams will still hold an advantage in that stat.
Game-Over Green? Canada-Over Carlson!
by Scott in Shaw on Feb 17, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
By any chance do you know where to find a description of how GVT is calculated? I’ve been looking for one for a while and haven’t been able to find anything.
There is a very detailed description of how Alan Ryder calculates Player Contribution here. Was hoping there was something similar about GVT.
I think Flash/Fehr right now both have too much value to trade for rentals.
The situation with those two is very similar to the Varlamov/Neuvirth debates we go through. Just like the goalies, they’re pretty well cost-controlled for the next couple years, with lots of upside, and the terrible danger that you just might trade the wrong one if you move one of them now.
This team is about to be very top-heavy for offensive salary structure, and young/cheap will be at an even bigger premium. Especially since, unlike on the blueline, there’s no one in Hersey who seems likely to replace their production effectively next year.
A pick or a prospect (or both) for a rental, absolutely. A solid, young, cost-controlled guy like Fehr, no thank you.
To me, the Hamhuis+Santorelli for Flash+ Erskine trade makes the most sense. Jackman plays over the edge a little too much for my taste. I fear that he might take an unnessecary roughing/major penalty at exactly the wrong time come the playoffs.
I would throw in Sloan also, just to get him off the books.
(I know it wouldn’t happen, but I can dream, can’t I)
What amazing date in history are we giong back to today, Mr. Peabody?
Robidas!
I want Robidas! It is unrealistic since Dallas is making a playoff push, and he is under contract for a few more years… but he fits the stay at home mold, racks up the blocked shots, and has a GVT of 7.8 so far (25th among D). I don’t think there is a reasonable deal we could make that Dallas would accept, but I want it!!!
by Love and Osechkin on Feb 19, 2010 3:26 PM EST reply actions
anyone else think we should try to nab Halak? I think this guy is phenominal, and I don’t trust Theo in April, no matter how good he is during the regular season. P.S. Varly can’t play every single post season game. Yea Yea I know the D is slacking, but then we should make 2 deals, one for Sutter and one for Halak…game- set- match You get a big body D man and solid G
~~~ R0cK D@ R3D ~~~
by Chaz-Capapalooza on Feb 21, 2010 2:12 PM EST reply actions
We are not getting Suter from Nashville (I assume that’s who you are talking about) and I don’t see how yet another goalie with no experience as a starter in the playoffs solves the Caps’ question mark in goal.
And why can’t Varlamov play every post season game?
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Feb 22, 2010 2:55 AM EST up reply actions

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