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Neuvirth and Varlamov: The Biggest Difference So Far

via cdn.picapp.com

All indications are that Michal Neuvirth will get the start tonight in Montreal, which is interesting in at least one respect - it will give Neuvi the same number of NHL regular season starts and appearances as fellow blue-chipper and teammate Semyon Varlamov. Here's what the two have been able to do so far in their respective NHL careers:


GPGS MIN W L O GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
Michal Neuvirth 21 18 1066
11 5
0 49
2.76 552 503 .911 0


GP GS MIN W L O GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
Semyon Varlamov 22 19 1253 16 1 3 47 2.25 608
561
.923 2

The road has been a bit smoother for Varly (maybe not as much as you'd think, though - each goalie, for example, has five starts in which he has allowed four or more goals against), and we all know what each did in the postseason last year.

But perhaps the most important number to note here is that while Varlamov has made just 29 regular season professional starts since the beginning of the 2008-09 season, Neuvirth has made 46 (a number that would have been higher had the organization not spent so much time trying to find another AHL team and a European squad to transfer him to in the fall of 2008). Bottom line here? After tonight, the Caps' two young goaltenders will have the same number of NHL regular season starts and appearances, and relatively similar stat lines. One big difference, though, has been in their respective abilities to stay healthy. And that matters.

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Ouch.

And ouch.

IS KEPTIN NOW

by EmilyB on Feb 10, 2010 1:08 PM EST reply actions  

nice short blurb….

based on numbers alone, Varly’s the better player. but there are a lot of people in both camps. you’d be hard pressed to pick one over the other since you can’t go wrong either way.

I, for one, can’t wait to see how it all pans out…..if we end up with two great goalies in the next year or two, I wonder how that will shape out. Will we have (to steal the term from football) a GBC — Goalie by Committee? Will both accept that? Or is it better to have a #1 goalie? The other could be a #1 goalie for some other team and we get a decent backup goalie in return.

Either way, I’m excited for the future in the goalie position. Can’t wait to see what it holds…..

Rock the Red! Rock the White! Rock the Blue! Rock the Pens!

by RedskinFan4Life on Feb 10, 2010 1:08 PM EST reply actions  

I hope we go with the two youngins next year

I know some don’t like the thought of two rookies as the tandem, but I think it will work out fine. And as far as who is #1, I’m sure BB will just go with the hot hand. Seems to be what he does now.

They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown.

by Bman21212 on Feb 10, 2010 1:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m with you: youth tandem.

"Camaraderie, that's what the Washington Capitals are all about."

by CapitalCentre on Feb 10, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I feel the same way. On Theodore, he would be expensive to resign. Figure it will be easier to keep the rest of our people together from a salary point of view with the kids than with Theo.

Rocking the Red since 1975

by CapsFan75 on Feb 10, 2010 5:02 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m quite sure Theo knows he will not be returning next year, and I’m sure that’s GMGM’s plan.

Varyl’s injury prone-ness makes him trade bait, and its unsettling. If Braden Holtby continues to blossom into a great goaltender one of the 3 will go. This I’m quite sure of.

People are stupid, a person is smart. This leads me to believe there must be at least one smart hockey fan in Philly.

by breaklance on Feb 10, 2010 6:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Varyl’s injury prone-ness makes him trade bait.

I’d say the exact opposite.

by sixsevenfiftysix on Feb 10, 2010 6:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Or does Varly end up having a career like Brent Johnson since he can’t stay healthy enough to be a #1 goalie?

Rocking the Red since 1975

by CapsFan75 on Feb 11, 2010 8:55 AM EST up reply actions  

I disagree that you can’t go wrong either way. The odds of both of these guys having a long run as a #1 goalie are extremely long. At most, only one of them probably has a decade of service as an upper-echelon starter. Too many things can get in th way: injuries, work ethic, personal troubles, whatever.

It’s extremely important to the future of the club that they pick the right guy to keep, if it comes down to picking.

"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP

by fat_daddyo on Feb 10, 2010 1:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I disagree that you can’t go wrong either way.

I think you might have misunderstood me. I meant that they probably couldn’t go wrong either way next year. I think both will do a fine job next year, but for the “long run” as you say, I think one of them will become pretty evident by trade deadline next year.

Rock the Red! Rock the White! Rock the Blue! Rock the Pens!

by RedskinFan4Life on Feb 10, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Then, yes, I agree. Keep them both and let their performance sort itself out.

Odds are you have an asset with negligible value, once one of them has flamed out. But better that way than to guess wrong.

I also think they ought to keep stocking the system with netminders (preferably from lower rounds in the draft) as an insurance policy.

"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP

by fat_daddyo on Feb 10, 2010 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

that’s the real positive of the situation. with holtby in the minors, they can be aggressive if need be with choosing between the two because they will not be bereft of options in the minor

erskine has scored...now i can die in peace

by souldrummer on Feb 10, 2010 3:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Do you see GMGM offering Theo a low ball 1 year deal for next season? I do and then moving either Holtby or even maybe Neuwirth. I think a veteran goalie will still be needed.

by Racin23 on Feb 10, 2010 1:12 PM EST reply actions  

I hope not. We have 3 good young goalies. Why not give them experience? We have the offense to make up for mistakes, and both have shown they can hold up fine in the NHL. If needed, we could trade for a goalie later, but I really hope we don’t bring in an experienced one next year. Varly + Neurvy and Hotlby as the AHL backup seems fine by me.

They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown.

by Bman21212 on Feb 10, 2010 1:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Varly + Neurvy and Hotlby as the AHL backup seems fine by me.

yeah, i think Theo’s gone next year too. part of maybe why Theo’s playing so well — he may be auditioning for another team next year.

if Theo stays for a 1 year deal(again, which I doubt), it won’t be cheap. if they manage to work it out somehow, i see Holtby being traded.

Rock the Red! Rock the White! Rock the Blue! Rock the Pens!

by RedskinFan4Life on Feb 10, 2010 1:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I too feel we are flush with young tenders, but personally I’m not sold on Varly’s health.

by Racin23 on Feb 10, 2010 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m not sold on his health either, but I am hopeful because if he holds up he is amazing. But we have 3 great ones, so even in Varly goes down, well Hotlby gets thrown in the fire sooner. And Neurvy seems to have held up the fort ok when theo was on a losing spell, which gives me confidence he can do it next year if Varly goes down.

They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown.

by Bman21212 on Feb 10, 2010 1:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I think that Theo will command a lot more than a low-ball. He is having a tremendous year, may go far in the playoffs, and can still be seen in his prime at 33. Theo will be looking for a multi-year contract to end his career, and given the state of many team’s goaltending, he’ll get it. Even if we wanted to keep him, I’m not sure that we have a choice there.

I am all for keeping Varly and Neuvy for next year and splitting the time.

"We take the shortest route to the puck and arrive in ill humor." - Bobby Clarke

by Karl W on Feb 10, 2010 1:23 PM EST up reply actions  

We’ll see what Theo commands, but unless he goes on an incredible tear the numbers aren’t going to suggest “tremendous year” to GMs.

by Kolzilla on Feb 10, 2010 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

You are correct, but I still think he’ll be the top free agent goalie out there.

"We take the shortest route to the puck and arrive in ill humor." - Bobby Clarke

by Karl W on Feb 10, 2010 1:29 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree

mainly because there are so many teams with goalie needs and few good goalies on the market. He should do fine

They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown.

by Bman21212 on Feb 10, 2010 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

After tonight, the Caps’ two young goaltenders will have the same number of NHL regular season starts and appearances, and relatively similar stat lines.

Varly is .51 GAA better. That means that Neuvi has let in 22% more goals per game than Varly. Varly’s SPG is also better and his record is better. Other than their health there is no comparison.

"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"

by MikeyGreen on Feb 10, 2010 1:14 PM EST reply actions  

I think Neuvirth’s a slower starter than Varly. What this indicates to me is that Neuvirth may not be as good to this point as Varly, he’s not horrible by any means, and he’s considerably more durable. He’s a workable option.

No Alex, no ratings. Know Alex, know ratings.

by gotsparkly on Feb 10, 2010 1:16 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s a small sample and I said “relatively similar.” One’s 11-5, the other is 16-4. Throw out the two starts in which Neuvi got yanked in Florida and he’s 2.42/.921 (which speaks to how small the sample size is). I’m pretty comfortable with “relatively similar.”

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Feb 10, 2010 1:20 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m unsure if its really fair to compare when Neuvi has been playing during a 14 game winning streak. Teams playing great, even when they aren’t playing their hockey they’re still playing great.

Like goalzille said below: 5gp 5-0 1.2 gaa .966 sv is kind of inflating his stats.

I’m not sold on his ability right now. I’m also uncomfortable with Varly’s health…Time for Braden to move in!

People are stupid, a person is smart. This leads me to believe there must be at least one smart hockey fan in Philly.

by breaklance on Feb 10, 2010 6:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Only if you assume the team’s carrying Neuvirth and not the other way around, which I don’t think is the case – he’s faced 45 and 36 shot in his last two games, for example.

by David Getz on Feb 10, 2010 7:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Moreover, Neuvy is a different goalie now than he was earlier in the season. His last five games:

GA: 6
sv % .966

It could just be a hot streak. It could also be a sign that he’s developed significantly under Irbe and is ready for prime time.

by Kolzilla on Feb 10, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

6 game is an even smaller sample, especially for one just starting to taste the NHL level. once other team gets the scouting reports on Neuvi, that’s when the challenge will start for him.

Rock the Red! Rock the White! Rock the Blue! Rock the Pens!

by RedskinFan4Life on Feb 10, 2010 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

How many of those goals were on the power play? Those recent numbers are just too good to be random, especially with the team allowing plenty of shots. When you remember that one of those was Semin sliding into him, the numbers are even better.

I think Neuvy has the potential to be an elite goalie in this league. I hope he gets the chance to prove it.

"We take the shortest route to the puck and arrive in ill humor." - Bobby Clarke

by Karl W on Feb 10, 2010 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t see Neuvi as Elite (for the sake of discussion lets say a top 15 goalie for 3 years in a row). He is too small to stop shots he doesn’t see and he relies on his very good glove hand far too much by doing things like giving shooters high glove side and then taking it away. Once he is in the league and opponents realize this I cant see his long term potential being any better than being in the 25th-35th goalies in the league (which would make him a great backup or not that great of a starter).

Varly on the other hand has the chance to be elite. He is far quicker and more athletic than Neuvi, stays bigger in the net when he doesn’t see a shot (or on deflections) (he is listed as 1" bigger which isn’t a big deal but his legs go out further when he butterflies).

At the same time, Varly has a better chance of being a Jim Carrey because of his injury issues, explosive style and not as good positioning so if he loses a step its over for him.

Both goalies will get their chance to prove me right or wrong but there is a reason Varly was a first rounder and neuvi a 2nd.

"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"

by MikeyGreen on Feb 10, 2010 1:50 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

While I personally like Varly more than Neuvy, players do develop at different rates and while a first rounder has a much greater chance of being elite, some players in later rounds have developed into stars as well. Some people are late bloomers.

Rocking the Red since 1975

by CapsFan75 on Feb 10, 2010 5:05 PM EST up reply actions  

There’s also a reason Holby was a 4th. And Trevor Kidd was drafted 10 spots before Martin Brodeur. They aren’t necessarily good reasons, and draft position is absolutely not a good predictor with goalies.

Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.

by Rob Parker on Feb 10, 2010 5:25 PM EST up reply actions  

One big difference, though, has been in their respective abilities to stay healthy. And that matters.

Are we to infer that you believe players can be injury prone? In the sense that having injured X and Y body parts could lead a player to being more likely than average to injure other, non-related body parts?

It sounds like you are saying because Neuvi has been more sturdy he will continue to be more sturdy. And I would disagree, to an extent.

by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Feb 10, 2010 1:18 PM EST reply actions  

Varly relies a little more on his athleticism and flexibility in making saves, which is the kind of thing that can make you prone to injuries like groin pulls and knee sprains, both of which he’s had problems with in the past. Neuvirth, on the other hand, tends to get by more on quickness and positioning, which means that he rarely has to strain to get back into position.

GUTEN TAAAAAAAAAAAAG!

by Wheeler on Feb 10, 2010 1:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I like this argument very much, and it’s the only reason I can wrap my head around for being worried about future injuries for Varly. Any other predictions about his future health from these past few months I am reluctant to give much weight to.

by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Feb 10, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions  

What on earth would make you infer that?

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Feb 10, 2010 1:22 PM EST up reply actions  

The quoted text. I was just trying to understand what you meant by it, and that seemed like as good of a conclusion to draw as any.

by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Feb 10, 2010 1:23 PM EST up reply actions  

No, but why do you think that I meant to imply that “having injured X and Y body parts could lead a player to being more likely than average to injure other, non-related body parts?”

I am certainly implying that having injured X and Y body parts (namely groin and knee) could lead a player to being more likely than average to injure other, related body parts (namely groin and knee). But no, I don’t think Varly’s repeated lower-body injuries make him more likely to sprain his wrist.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Feb 10, 2010 1:26 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

I am certainly implying that having injured X and Y body parts (namely groin and knee) could lead a player to being more likely than average to injure other, related body parts (namely groin and knee).

Ding ding ding, we have a winner.

"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP

by fat_daddyo on Feb 10, 2010 1:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Not quite. Just because I have experienced a minor injury, which subsequently has completely healed, doesn’t necessarily make me injury prone in that same spot. It may, it may not. More information is needed to make an accurate assessment.

by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Feb 10, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Which injury are you calling minior? The groin or the knee…because if I’m not mistaken, both have been problems in the past for Varly.

by Yoshietree on Feb 10, 2010 2:27 PM EST up reply actions  

And it would surprise no one if his second injury this time around was caused by rushing back prematurely from the first, would it?

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Feb 10, 2010 2:39 PM EST up reply actions  

See that’s where I have to draw the line. Common sense has no place on the intrawebs.

by Yoshietree on Feb 10, 2010 2:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Great but wasn’t his recent knee injury caused by being crashed into by Oscar Osala?

by six hole on Feb 10, 2010 2:55 PM EST up reply actions  

And before that it was an extended stay on the IR due to the groin.

by Yoshietree on Feb 10, 2010 3:02 PM EST up reply actions  

See also: Rick Dipietro, Kari Lehtonen.

Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.

by Rob Parker on Feb 10, 2010 5:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Ok, but considering that it is as simple as a groin strain, where no permanent damage could possibly exist, is he still more likely than the average goalie to injure his groin, after completely healing?

It’s a tough question to answer, considering we are neither doctors nor have complete information on his injury…

I was just attempting to clarify, because some people do in fact consider players to be “soft” or “injury prone” in a global sense. And I was getting that tone from that last sentence, but now I know exactly what you were intending to say.

by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Feb 10, 2010 1:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m not sure where you got that tone – it’s a simple, factual statement: Neuvi has been able to stay healthy whereas Varly hasn’t.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Feb 10, 2010 1:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Or at least his injuries are comparatively minor and he can heal quickly.

Rocking the Red since 1975

by CapsFan75 on Feb 10, 2010 1:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Well you just said that you think Varly is injury prone in his groin and knee now going forward, so… it’s not too far of a stretch.

by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Feb 10, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions  

No, it is. I didn’t call him “soft” and I didn’t call him “injury prone,” and I didn’t call him “injury prone in his groin and knee now going forward,” so stop putting words in my mouth. Seriously.

Marian Gaborik had groin problems for years. He’d “recover” from an injury and almost as quickly, he’d be back out with another groin injury. Turns out his groin injuries were likely related to a hip deficiency that was forcing him to compensate and throw his groin out of whack.

When a guy has repeated injuries in the same area, sometimes he’s more likely than average to injure other, related body parts and sometimes it’s another related body part that’s already injured. Either way, multiple injuries in the same area are often more than coincidental, and certainly are something that bear watching.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Feb 10, 2010 2:02 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

Hmm
I am certainly implying that having injured X and Y body parts (namely groin and knee) could lead a player to being more likely than average to injure other, related body parts (namely groin and knee)
I didn’t call him "injury prone in his groin and knee now going forward"

While you didn’t say it per se… logical deduction leads us to believe that from your first statement you think Varly is prone to re-injuring these areas. I didn’t think I was taking a liberty there.

And…

I didn’t call him "soft" and I didn’t call him "injury prone," …. so stop putting words in my mouth. Seriously.

Did I put words in your mouth? All I’ve done in this thread is try to understand your thoughts on Varly’s injuries and how it affects his future.

I was just attempting to clarify, because some people do in fact consider players to be "soft" or "injury prone" in a global sense.

So let’s get down to what I really want to know:

Do you think that Varly has a higher than average chance of getting hurt in the future? And consequently, is his long term value is hurt by these injuries?

by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Feb 10, 2010 2:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Do you think that Varly has a higher than average chance of getting hurt in the future? And consequently, is his long term value is hurt by these injuries?

Yes and yes.

by Yoshietree on Feb 10, 2010 3:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Clarity! All I was hoping for was to get JPs answer to this question, sorry to him and everyone that it took me 10 posts to ask it this clearly.

I think I disagree, but I don’t know all of the information concerning the injuries Varly has dealt with.

by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Feb 10, 2010 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Fair enough, but that’s my opinion of the world. I’m sure almost everyone on this site has a different opinion or will add some sort of clarification. But the simple answer is yes and yes…I think we’re at the point where the organization has to see that they have a phenomenal talent that may not be able to stand the vigor of the NHL season.

by Yoshietree on Feb 10, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I think that Varly needs to prove that his lower body injuries are not chronic in nature and that he can stay healthy for an extended period of time. Until he does that, I think his long-term value is hurt by the perception or the reality that he cannot do so.

Put another way, I do believe that his value in trade or however else you’d measure it would be higher today if he hadn’t been out for the past two months with injuries that were similar to if not the same as injuries he’d dealt with previously in his young career.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Feb 10, 2010 3:16 PM EST up reply actions  

What kind of time frame of normal to heavy playtime will it take for you to be confident in his ability not to reinjure his lower body? That’s a tough thing to definitively prove. The longer the better, obviously, but we are going to have to make some serious goalie decisions soon.

by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Feb 10, 2010 3:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m not JP, but for me personally one year with no injuries is good enough for me.

They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown.

by Bman21212 on Feb 10, 2010 3:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d like to see a full season with something close to a normal starting goalie’s workload (not a Brodeur workload, but ~55 games) without a lower-body injury.

Btw, just so we’re clear, I mean a groin/knee type injury, not one of these (an ankle ligament tear, which I wouldn’t think is related to these other types of injuries… but could be):

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Feb 10, 2010 3:44 PM EST up reply actions  

See also: Peter Forsberg, Simone Gagne.

Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.

by Rob Parker on Feb 10, 2010 5:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Are you implying that certain players aren’t injury prone?

Because they are, some of them.

Varly’s start to his career is not definitive by any means, but it has opened the possibility that he’s injury prone.

"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP

by fat_daddyo on Feb 10, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions  

This is the kind of argument I can’t get behind. Getting a major injury and having it never completely heal to 100%, causing issues over a long period of time, that is legit. Having a play style that could make you slightly more prone to taking dangerous hits, legit. But being “injury prone” as an amorphous attribute, is where I don’t agree.

by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Feb 10, 2010 1:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Having a play style that could make you slightly more prone to taking dangerous hits, legit

Varly falls in to that category. His style of play and conditioning level have made him more susceptible to injuries, and thus far he’s had them.

Besides, some guys are more injury prone than others, just naturally speaking. Some people are more prone to things like sprains and strains

by David Getz on Feb 10, 2010 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

So, you’re saying that guys can have a propensity to regularly incur injuries, either by reinjuring a not-completely-healed wound, or by having a style of play that leads to more and more violent physical contact…but that being injury prone is too amorphous a concept? I don’t get it.

Rick DiPietro, Martin Havlat, Steve Sullivan, Joni Pitkanen, Eric Lindros…I could go on.

Closer to home, Sasha Semin.

Those guys got or get injured regularly.

"You want to start being part of the Rink? Fine, but more’s expected of you than John/Jane Cap Fan. Carry the cause of informed discussion to the unwashed masses and don’t crap in the yards of other SBN sites if you decide to go over there. They’re passionate about their teams too, no need to troll elsewhere and/or be a sore winner." --BP

by fat_daddyo on Feb 10, 2010 1:51 PM EST up reply actions  

What I’m saying is there’s a very fine line between the two.

The bell curve of the number of injuries a player sustains in his career will look like any other bell curve, with unlucky players at one end.

The question is: is a player just unlucky in his accruing of injuries, or is there something that actually leads him to become injured more. It’s very hard to separate the two, or to make any logical conclusions one way or the other with incomplete information.

by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Feb 10, 2010 3:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m really trying to understand you…not trying to be a dick here. But are you really trying to say that an individual player cannot be more prone to injury than another player?

by Yoshietree on Feb 10, 2010 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Google “are some athletes more injury-prone than others.” There’s plenty of evidence that, in fact, some are.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Feb 10, 2010 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Steve Sullivan was just one bad back injury, IIRC. He’s not the same as the other guys.

Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.

by Rob Parker on Feb 10, 2010 5:31 PM EST up reply actions  

With how different people are in their physical gifts/attributes, I don’t understand why it is ridiculous to suggest that some people are more fragile than others, but it isn’t ridiculous to say that players who are getting constantly injured are just victims of bad luck.

Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst

by Killer_Carlson on Feb 10, 2010 6:04 PM EST up reply actions  

So is Theo a healthy scratch tonight or what?

"My face is my mask."

by Jake Shapiro on Feb 10, 2010 1:27 PM EST reply actions  

All this says to me is both goalies are spectacular, and that we shouldn’t write off Neuvy so quickly. For instance, the move to bring up Varly doesn’t make much sense to me. Neuvirth and Theo are on a 14 game winning streak, and Varly needs to get back into game shape. He’s not limited in the amount of time he can spend in the AHL so why not let him play in Hershey until at least after the break. The team is doing great right now why try and change something that’s working so well?

by DC FURY on Feb 10, 2010 1:29 PM EST reply actions  

I think the general consensus is that the team wants him practicing at the NHL level, and receiving coaching at the NHL level, and likely monitor his injury with their own eyes at the nhl level.

by GusDaMan on Feb 10, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

off topic a bit here.....

but anyone notice the recent goalie trade? Lehtonen from Atlanta to Dallas. Seems someone in Dallas may be on their way out….. I wonder if Dallas inquired GMGM about our stock of goalies….

Rock the Red! Rock the White! Rock the Blue! Rock the Pens!

by RedskinFan4Life on Feb 10, 2010 1:31 PM EST reply actions  

Wow, Fistric is +15, and the next highest Dallas Star is +3.

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by winterion on Feb 10, 2010 1:40 PM EST up reply actions  

The rumor was that Turco was on his way out anyhow.

Rocking the Red since 1975

by CapsFan75 on Feb 10, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions  

thats who i think is on his way out — seems inevitable now with the trade.

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by RedskinFan4Life on Feb 10, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, makes it even more so.

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by CapsFan75 on Feb 10, 2010 1:48 PM EST up reply actions  

They were saying that they are going to roll with three. I’d imagine they would try to trade him to Philly though instead of doing the tango the Caps did a few seasons ago.

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by zephyr on Feb 10, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I can’t see them being interested in a goalie given that they just acquired one.

by David Getz on Feb 10, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I said “inquired” — past tense. I wonder if they asked GMGM and when he said no, they moved on. just wondering aloud if that happened — it might indicate what GMGM’s position is on the goalie crop we have.

Rock the Red! Rock the White! Rock the Blue! Rock the Pens!

by RedskinFan4Life on Feb 10, 2010 1:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Just like Varly though, Lehtonen is injury prone. It’d make sense, for example, for the Caps, cap permitting, to go with two solid goalies if one of them is Varly because of the deal of the backup getting starting duties when the starter gets injured, which in this case unfortunately may be pretty frequently. Lehtonen’s no Lundqvist or Brodeur, can’t start 70 games a season, to this point at least. A competent backup is important for Dallas.
I hope I didn’t just make a fool of myself because Dallas does in fact have a competent backup…stats on the Stars’ website tell me Auld isn’t all that great. Of course that’s superficial, so if anyone has better info, that’d be appreciated.

Ovechkin = Green Backs

by red army line on Feb 10, 2010 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Nope, Auld’s nothing special. He can pull out good games here and there, but I’d take Lehtonen over Auld.

by Mobsky on Feb 10, 2010 2:16 PM EST up reply actions  

And if Lehtonen goes down for some time again, would you be confident in the Stars’ ability to win with Auld in goal?

Ovechkin = Green Backs

by red army line on Feb 10, 2010 3:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Speaking of oft-injured netminders…

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by J.P. on Feb 10, 2010 3:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Next year it’s the Varly/Neuvy show. We all know one of them goes down at some point to injury and that’s why we keep Holtby. We are blessed to have these 3 young netminders, both skill & capwise.

by SkipjackCap on Feb 10, 2010 2:16 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Agreed, It is great for the cap. I wouldn’t mind signing a veteran backup in hershey who could step in worst case if varly and neuvi get hurt/have slumps and holtby isn’t ready. Maybe someone who played a couple years in the NHL then hit a rough skid. Worst case the guy teaches Holtby a thing or two, provides some leadership for Hershey in the room and is basically a 2nd goalie coach.

"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"

by MikeyGreen on Feb 10, 2010 2:32 PM EST up reply actions  

There aren’t too many of those goalies around….and even fewer that I’d want to rely on to mentor a young, talented keeper such as Holtby.

by Yoshietree on Feb 10, 2010 2:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Don’t we have one of those — just not in Hershey?

by miseenjeu on Feb 10, 2010 2:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Are you implying that Theo is an AHL goalie? Or just a veteran back-up that can’t hack it in the NHL so he’d take an assignment voluntarily?

I vehemently disagree with either statement.

by Yoshietree on Feb 10, 2010 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

No — I think Theo has done an excellent job mentoring the goalies here, in thinking it’s good if he can share some of his experience, while expecting (and wanting) to be pushed to play as well as possibly can. I think Varly was surprised how supportive he was last spring, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Neuvi’s picked up some pointers during this season.

But I’m speculating that if a veteran goalie has NHL experience, he’s not likely to be willing to settle for an AHL assignment.

by miseenjeu on Feb 10, 2010 4:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I see now…your post above implied the opposite.

by Yoshietree on Feb 10, 2010 5:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Me too. You’d think they’d give him this one in MTL to keep his streak going and get some revenge.

by grapejoos on Feb 10, 2010 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

revenge for what? i think he’s past not playing for MTL anymore…..

Rock the Red! Rock the White! Rock the Blue! Rock the Pens!

by RedskinFan4Life on Feb 10, 2010 2:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Best keep Theo out of the media spotlight out there. He had a real messy exit. I don’t think he’s played a single game in MTL for the Caps.

"We take the shortest route to the puck and arrive in ill humor." - Bobby Clarke

by Karl W on Feb 10, 2010 2:41 PM EST up reply actions  

That’s what I meant. I am sure he is past it, but that doesn’t mean he’s forgotten and wouldn’t like to win a game there. He got a shutout against them last year in DC and seemed pretty pumped up about it.

by grapejoos on Feb 10, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m not. I’d take Ottawa as the more dangerous of the two teams right now. Give Theo Ottawa.

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by gotsparkly on Feb 10, 2010 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I was initially a little surprised, but Ottawa’s definitely the better team so I think it’s a good idea to give Theo that game. He did well against Ottawa last time, too.
I kind of feel like playing in Bell Centre with a 14 game win streak is a lot of pressure for Neuvy. I’m sure it’s fine, but it’s just a weird thought I had.

by caps123 on Feb 10, 2010 2:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d guess Neuvi’s confidence is fairly good right now, and the Montreal team is dealing with a lot of injuries. At this point, with a 14 game streak, I’m not sure the Bell Centre is a big issue, in and of itself.

by miseenjeu on Feb 10, 2010 2:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, it’s a test for him, of sorts. He’s never been in an arena during the NHL playoffs; that’s a whole new level. Throw him in and see how he does.

No Alex, no ratings. Know Alex, know ratings.

by gotsparkly on Feb 10, 2010 2:55 PM EST up reply actions  

on the capitals report/pre-cap they said he is starting tonight then heading straight down to hershey to get hs mandated number of starts in to be eligible to play over the olympic break. He needs to miss 2 more caps game (tomorrow and saturday) to be eligible. So i’m assuming he’s playing tonight to keep theo from playing back-to-backs and varly will be the back up for the next 2 but you never know with BB.

"Hey anyway I can get my name out there 30 years from now is great," Steckel said. "They will be like, ‘Who was that guy?’ Then they’ll look at the stats and say, ‘Well, at least that guy was really good on face-offs.’"

by jenlee0828 on Feb 10, 2010 3:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Playoff strategy?

What do you think BB is thinking regarding playoff netminders? Fortunately there’ll be over a month of games for BB to determine how well Varly has recovered, but if they were starting now and Varly was healthy, who do you think he’d start with,and potentially stick with throughout, Theodore or Varlamov?

by vzotsky on Feb 10, 2010 2:38 PM EST reply actions  

The trust level with Theo has definitely grown this season

You can tell that BB has more confidence in Theo, even from his effusive praise in post-game pressers. It was always noticeable to me last year (and even earlier this season), BB’s reticence in re: Theo and his play, like he was cynical about it. I think Jose has definitely earned his trust and I wouldn’t be surprised, should he continue to be “hot,” to see Theo be the starting goaltender heading into the postseason.

by DonnieKnutts on Feb 10, 2010 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I definitely agree. BB will go with the hot hand, and if that’s Theo, he’ll play. Obviously it would help if Theo plays well for the rest of the season so that BB has even more confidence in him going into the playoffs.
All I’m trying to say is I’m not 100% sure Varly will definitely be the guy in the playoffs. If Theo is playing better and BB has faith in him, I think it could be Theo.

by caps123 on Feb 10, 2010 2:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Do you think BB is inclined to stick with one guy for the duration of the playoffs unless they go cold, or to give whoever is hot at that point a game off here and there? Last year BB stayed with Varly even after he got shelled for 5 goals in game 4 against the Pens, so my guess is he’s very inclined to pick one guy and stick with him, but maybe that was a product of his lack of trust in Theodore and will be different this year?

by vzotsky on Feb 10, 2010 3:02 PM EST up reply actions  

good question

even given what i posted above, i do feel that BB has a relatively short leash compared to other coaches.

by DonnieKnutts on Feb 10, 2010 3:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I think BB will go with the hot hand even in the playoffs. The reason Varly was given the goaltending even after he gave up 5 against the pens was the utter and total lack of trust in Theo. I think this year the trust is slightly higher, and he knows Varly could get tired, so he might switch in the playoffs. Who knows though, BB is mysterious sometimes just like GMGM. What a great pair those two are.

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by Bman21212 on Feb 10, 2010 3:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m not so sure. After all, he pulled Theo after one game. I think the situation with Varly after game 4 was a bit different – he had been lights out up until game 4 in the Pens series. That was a case where Varly “earned” that next start. And keep in mind the backup was Theo, who BB obviously didn’t trust.

Right now, I think BB trusts all of his goalies pretty well. If the same continues going into the postseason and one guy struggles, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get pulled, just like last year.

by grapejoos on Feb 10, 2010 3:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I definitely wouldn’t be surprised to see BB pull a guy well into the post-season because he is struggling. You kind of never know what he might do with his goalie.
It’ll be interesting to see how all this plays out.

by caps123 on Feb 10, 2010 3:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I think he’ll go with the hot hand. Whoever it is late will start, and if he needs to change he’ll change.

Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.

by Rob Parker on Feb 10, 2010 5:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed. The only question is how long a leash that first guy has. One bad start? Two? Depends on the guy?

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by J.P. on Feb 10, 2010 6:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Probably depends on the guy and how bad the starts were. The last few games of the regular season could also be a factor.

Killer_Carlson and Steckel Me Elmo are like brothers to me. And when I say brothers I don't mean like actual brothers. I mean it like how black people use it, which is more meaningful, I think.

by Rob Parker on Feb 10, 2010 7:38 PM EST up reply actions  

I was amused to see BB, when asked about his plans now that he has 3 healthy goalies, say: “I haven’t even thought about it.”

Not a bit, eh?

You had me at no problem.

by Ninjak on Feb 10, 2010 4:48 PM EST reply actions  

I really like this post.

Keep ’em both.

Я Харт не так ли?

by Capsfan07 on Feb 10, 2010 6:22 PM EST reply actions  

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