Who's feasting on who?

by benjik on Feb 1, 2010 7:22 PM EST Comment 33 comments

Writer's note: this topic was touched on in another blog with JP linking to it a few days ago. I tried to go a bit further with my analysis, so I think it's not redundant.

We've all heard it before. We've all tried to dismiss it as a lame attempt to undermine the Caps' accomplishments this season:

The Caps feast on a weak Southeast Division.

As much as we try to ignore this, it keeps creeping up during conversations, sports radio, blogs, and televised games. On the Pens forecast last Thursday, they were pushing pretty hard with this.

So today I'll try to take a look at the validity of this claim, attempting to remain as impartial as possible.

In the spirit of the Rink, I'll use some number crunching goodness, and hope to come up with some interesting insight.

The basic premise of this criticism is simple: The Southeast stinks, the Caps play more games against them, that's how they rack up the points.

So we'll break it down in 2 parts:

1. Does the Southeast really stink?

2. What kind of advantage do the Caps get by playing in the SE?

A little reminder on the NHL schedule: each team plays 6 times against each team in its own division, 4 times against each team in the other 2 divisions in its conference, and 18 times total against the other conference: 6*4+4*5*2+18=82

1. I've decided to throw out all games against the West to keep a level playing field. Since we're in the middle of the season, I'm mainly looking at points/game to rank teams and divisions.

Here is this stat for all East teams and averaged by division. I've also looked at the worth of each division without its leader, so one can see the level of the competition the top dog in each division has to play against. It helps that each division has a clear-cut leader at this point. This stat is multiplied by 82 to give an "average" point total through an 82-game season.

Atlantic	P/G	points in 82-game season
New Jersey Devils	1,47
Pittsburgh Penguins	1,27
Philadelphia Flyers	1,12
New York Rangers	1,02
New York Islanders	0,96
average team	1,16	95,4
average team w/o NJ	1,09	89,2
Northeast
Buffalo Sabres	1,33
Ottawa Senators	1,18
Montréal Canadiens	1,12
Boston Bruins	1,08
Toronto Maple Leafs	0,88
average team	1,12	91,6
average team w/o Buffalo	1,07	87,4
Southeast
Washington Capitals	1,50
Tampa Bay Lightning	1,05
Atlanta Thrashers	1,00
Florida Panthers	1,00
Carolina Hurricanes	0,87
average team	1,09	89,1
average team w/o Washington	0,98	80,5

What we see here is a pretty clear picture: ATL>NE>SE

Based on those numbers, it's hard to argue against the fact the Southeast division is pretty weak, especially without Washington in the mix. They're an average 7 points begind NE and 9 behind ATL.

2. So what does this mean for Washington? Do they get fat off of their fellow Southeasterners?

Let's take a look at how each division fares against each other, also looking at the same stats throwing out the division's leader.

	vs ATL	vs NE	vs SE	Vs Wash-less SE	Vs East
Atlantic	P/G	P/G	P/G	P/G	P/G
New Jersey Devils	1,43	1,46	1,50	1,50	1,47
Pittsburgh Penguins	1,25	1,29	1,27	1,40	1,27
Philadelphia Flyers	1,27	0,92	1,13	1,33	1,12
New York Rangers	0,57	1,46	1,07	1,08	1,02
New York Islanders	0,73	1,07	1,06	1,08	0,96
average team	1,05	1,24	1,21	1,28	1,16
average team w/o NJ	0,97	1,19	1,12	1,22	1,09
Northeast
Buffalo Sabres	1,29	1,40	1,27	1,50	1,33
Ottawa Senators	1,06	1,41	1,00	1,00	1,18
Montréal Canadiens	1,15	1,00	1,20	1,25	1,12
Boston Bruins	0,77	1,21	1,30	1,44	1,08
Toronto Maple Leafs	0,73	0,73	1,13	1,18	0,88
average team	1,01	1,16	1,17	1,26	1,12
average team w/o Buffalo	0,94	1,10	1,15	1,21	1,07
Southeast
Washington Capitals	1,40	1,38	1,71	1,71	1,50
Tampa Bay Lightning	0,92	1,15	1,07	1,18	1,05
Atlanta Thrashers	1,00	1,13	0,86	1,09	1,00
Florida Panthers	1,24	0,83	0,88	1,18	1,00
Carolina Hurricanes	0,80	0,90	0,93	0,91	0,87
average team	1,08	1,10	1,08	1,24	1,09
average team w/o Washington	1,00	1,02	0,93	1,09	0,98

It's undeniable Washington has done very well against the Southeast, posting the best P/G average for a team against its own division. In fact, that is the best record of any one team against any one division.

Some other interesting notes:

Washington has done fairly well against the ATL and NE as well.

The NE has the highest P/G average within its division, meaning there's been a lot of OT games. Compared to the SE and ATL, that's basically 2 "extra"points per team (24 games played within one's division) at the end of the season.

As expected, the ATL>NE>SE inequality is well in evidence here again.

I also compiled each team's record against the Washington-less SE division (included in table above). Still, no team betters Washington's P/G average. Everyone is way behind more than 0.2 P/G behind.

This shows that even though Washington has done well against the SE, it's not only because the SE is weak, but primarily because, well, Washington has played better against the SE than everyone else.

Now we come (finally) to what this means in the standings. I'll be looking only at the East part of the schedule, which amounts to 64 games.

First we'll extrapolate points won through this point in the season to reflect an entire 64-game season. Points were calculated based on the avg P/G of the team against each division, and the team playing 6 against teams its own division, and 4 against the rest of the teams:

Next, we'll toss the divisions out, and look at what these numbers become if every team played 4.57 games against each other (amounts to 64 games total).

	Total predicted East points (64 games)	total predicted East points if equal number of games between teams	difference
Atlantic
New Jersey Devils	93,5	93,8	0,3
Pittsburgh Penguins	81,2	81,3	0,1
Philadelphia Flyers	71,2	69,8	-1,4
New York Rangers	64,4	68,3	3,9
New York Islanders	60,2	62,1	1,9
Northeast
Buffalo Sabres	84,8	84,1	-0,7
Ottawa Senators	75,1	73,0	-2,1
Montréal Canadiens	71,1	72,1	1,0
Boston Bruins	70,5	69,5	-1,0
Toronto Maple Leafs	54,8	55,9	1,1
Southeast
Washington Capitals	96,8	95,0	-1,8
Tampa Bay Lightning	67,3	67,1	-0,2
Atlanta Thrashers	63,2	64,4	1,2
Florida Panthers	62,4	63,3	0,9
Carolina Hurricanes	56,3	55,8	-0,5

What we see is that NJ and Wash have been dominant against the East, 9 and 12 points clear of the pack, led by Pittsburgh and Buffalo. The rest of the SE teams are way behind.

When tossing the divisions out, there isn't much change here. As expected, Washington would earn less points (2) but would still lead NJ by 1 and the rest by 10. Only the Rangers, which have been awful in divisional play, gets a significant boost out of this.

The reason is really pretty simple. The advantage of playing 6 times instead of 4 against 4 weaker teams doesn't translate to a whole lot of points at the end of the sason, because you still have to play 40 games against everybody else.

To further the point, we'll take a look at each team if they were to switch places with Washington in the SE, Washington going over to theirs.

The math used here: the P/G of every team against their division is adjusted to throw in their games with Wash, and their P/G against the SE is adjusted to games against everyone but Wash. Their P/G against the 3rd division is not adjusted.

I calculate Wash's point total using the same method.

I'll use NJ as an example, and you'll just have to take my word for the other teams:

Against ATL: 10-4-0

Against Wash: 3-1-0

Against ATL+Wash:13-5-0 -> 1.44 P/G

Against NE: 9-3-1 -> 1.46 P/G

Against Wash-less SE: 9-3-0 > 1.5 P/G

So their point total would be: 20*1.44+20*1.46+24*1.5= 94.1 points

Wash against ATL: 9-3-3

Wash against NJ: 1-2-1

Wash against NJ-less ATL: 8-1-2 -> 1.64 P/G

Wash against NE: 8-3-2 -> 1.38 P/G

Wash against SE: 12-2

Wash against SE+NJ: 13-4-1 -> 1.5 P/G

So Wash's point total, were they to switch places with NJ: 24*1.64+20*1.38+20*1.5=97

	Vs ATL + Wash	Vs NE	Vs SE -Wash	64-game East season if switched with Wash in SE	diffe-rential	Wash's point total if switched with team	diffe-rential
Atlantic
New Jersey Devils	1,44	1,46	1,50	94,1	0,6	97,0	0,1
Pittsburgh Penguins	1,18	1,29	1,40	82,8	1,7	94,9	-1,9
Philadelphia Flyers	1,11	0,92	1,33	72,4	1,2	92,7	-4,2
New York Rangers	0,63	1,46	1,08	67,7	3,4	95,3	-1,6
New York Islanders	0,79	1,07	1,08	63,1	2,9	92,7	-4,2
	Vs ATL	Vs NE + Wash	Vs SE -Wash
Northeast
Buffalo Sabres	1,29	1,28	1,50	87,3	2,5	94,5	-2,3
Ottawa Senators	1,06	1,37	1,00	72,6	-2,5	94,5	-2,4
Montréal Canadiens	1,15	1,00	1,25	73,1	2,0	94,5	-2,3
Boston Bruins	0,77	1,13	1,44	72,7	2,2	94,7	-2,2
Toronto Maple Leafs	0,73	0,79	1,18	58,7	3,9	94,9	-1,9

The differences can be more important here. Obviously most teams would gain from switching places with Washington, only Ottawa is happy where they're at (-2.5, only minus team). The average team is +1.8. We can also see that Wash would earn less points (an average of 2.3). That makes an average 4.1 point differential advantage Wash has for playing in the SE over every ATL and NE team. While not insignificant, this is hardly "getting fat". It's possibly the difference between 1 or 2 seed in the East. We'll see at the end of the season.

But, one stat we can keep here and throw out whenever someone uses that SouthLeast argument a bit too much for our liking: if we were to trade places with NJ, mighty leader of the great ATL division, we'd have the exact same number of points than if we stayed in the weak SE.

There's more to dissect here but I think I got all the main points.

As this is my first FanPost, please feel free to comment and critique. I know it's a bit long, but I couldn't find what to leave out. And my HTML skills do stink, thank you.

I hope not to have made any miscalculations, but if you want something double-checked that seems like it could be a mistake, I'll be happy to triple-check.

Finally, thanks to D'ohboy for the good advice on how to get rid of those pesky <!}) etc...

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's authors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

40 recs | Comment 33 comments

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Awesome

Rec’d for the clear work put into this. Way to shut down the haters

FLASH! He shoots, he scores - 22.9% of the time, anyway

by flashfangirl on Feb 1, 2010 7:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I hate math. I’ll trust your numbers, but it’s good to see some fact that we can use against silly people. A deserved Rec.

Familiar Rapports: Bald Pollack, F&B, Gould Old Days.

Lobbies: Osala, Perreault, Erskine, Pothier, Neuvirth, Flash.

Fan of: Mean Lars Backstrom, Line Mashing, Cake.

by Whiter Mage on Feb 1, 2010 8:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I saw on another website that someone brought up the point that the SE is the only division to have 2 stanley cups in the past 5 years, which seems like a very good point to me regarding it’s strength. Maybe it will be 3 in the past 6 hopefully.

by jaytown99 on Feb 1, 2010 8:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Very nice work. I like that even though the numbers didn’t totally support your original argument, you didn’t message them to meet your agenda.

Yes, playing in the SE is an advantage. It may turn out big, or maybe not. Could be the difference between playing the 7th or 8th seed to start the playoffs. Will that even be an advantage? With the 8 teams that are separated by 3 points from 5th place to 12th place in the East, who knows which of those will hang on to 7 or 8, and which will be the easiest out for the Capitals.

by HateOffSeason on Feb 1, 2010 9:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Great work. Love the number crunching. The FanPost editor has an “Import from Word” feature in it. This allows you to create formatting, links, tables, etc. in Word and then import it rather than write straight HTML. Maybe that will help with the formatting a bit.

"Dozens of people spontaneously combust each year. It's just not really widely reported."

by Laich It Or Lump It on Feb 1, 2010 9:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Now this is a perfect example of a very good FanPost

Still waiting for someone to draft Paul Newman. . .

by kingzman264 on Feb 1, 2010 11:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Your maths have laid me low

like a Mortal Kombat fatality.

by 80eight on Feb 2, 2010 12:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Holy Crap

This is great stuff. I’m still trying to process all of it. I’ll probably have to come back and read this again tomorrow morning. Hopefully this can be a recurring FanPost – biweekly perhaps?

There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.

by D'ohboy on Feb 2, 2010 1:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

OH. MY. GOD.

I just realized how much formatting gibberish you had to delete. That must have taken an hour by itself. If I could give this another rec, I would.

I really wish SBN would fix that. I’d also like the ability to post pictures/jpegs/what have you directly from my computer.

There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.

by D'ohboy on Feb 2, 2010 1:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Got your back on the rec. Tis well-deserved after all.

Damn! Looks like my women is on time.

by Bald Pollack on Feb 2, 2010 7:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And further to your point

What the Atlantic is really good at is fattening up on OT/SO wins against the other two divisions.

Regulation and OT only Records vs. non-divisional Eastern Opponents:

ATL vs. NE: 27-22 (10-7 OT)
ATL vs. SE: 26-26 (15-6 OT)
NE vs. ATL: 22-27(7-10 OT)
NE vs. SE: 23-23 (11-6 OT)
SE vs. ATL: 26-26 (6-15 OT)
SE vs. NE: 23-23 (6-11 OT)

And in summation, OT records vs. East non-divisional:
ATL: 25-13
NE: 18-16
SE: 12-26

Your argument that the SE is top heavy still applies, but one can’t discount other teams losing to Washington when they still get credit for beating them.

Russian Machine very rarely breaks.

by macvechkin on Feb 2, 2010 1:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

very good point, I hadn’t thought of.
That could be the subject of a whole other post, to see who’s getting fat off of OT this season. I’m willing to bet the Pens will be at the top (incredible 10-1 record in OT). they’re the reason why the ATL looks so good for this stat.

by benjik on Feb 2, 2010 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

just out of curiosity, do you know how many of those 10 wins come from the gimmick?

Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
On Draper having to wear a USA jersey at practice: "well at least the Wings can settle bets without involving gold plated desert eagles!"

by RedBirdie on Feb 2, 2010 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pittsburgh is 7-0 in the SO
New Jersey is 6-2
Islanders are 6-5
Rangers are 2-3
Philadelphia is 3-2
24 points gained from the SO among all teams

Florida is 5-7
Atlanta is 4-4
Washington is 4-2
Carolina is 3-4
Tampa Bay is 2-7
18 points gained from the SO among all teams

by darwintheboxer on Feb 2, 2010 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’ve seen some of the Pens shootouts though, and they’re really good at it. Crosby especially has been unstoppable (pains me). I don’t think we can dismiss it as luck or a gimmick. It’s now a part of the game. I believe it’s too much part of the game, but that’s for another discussion.
Personnally I think the fairest would be to award only 2 points each game. If teams tie after the 60 minutes, give the winning team 1.5 and the losing 0.5. For the shootout you can even it out even more, at 1.25 for the win, 0.75 for the loss. This might have the benefit of having teams really going for the win in the last 5 minutes, especially in inter-conference match-ups, and especially when only a few games are left and every point is precious.
Of course that would mean decimal points or fractions in standings, and that’s probably a show stopper right there.

by benjik on Feb 2, 2010 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

but the shoot out doesn’t win you playoff games.

Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
On Draper having to wear a USA jersey at practice: "well at least the Wings can settle bets without involving gold plated desert eagles!"

by RedBirdie on Feb 2, 2010 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They should just do a 3-2-1 system.

Regulation Win – 3 Pts
OT/SO Win – 2 Pts
OT/SO Loss – 1 Pt
Regulation Loss – 0

And as RB said, those shootout skills are certainly going to help them in the playoffs.

Now drink with me deeply of the bourbon, scotch, and rye until such time as we are fighting drunk.

by Steckel Me Elmo on Feb 3, 2010 3:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If they want to award points to the loosing side for OT/SO losses, that’s the best way to do it.

by Elliotte on Feb 3, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Great job benjik! Something tells me I’ll be linking to this fanpost more than once in the next month or two. Haters always come out of the wood work going into the playoffs.

Given how the NHL schedule works the whole divisional strength arguments have always been weak. Your post does a excellent job of showing how little divisional strength really means points wise.

"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich

by CP2Devil on Feb 2, 2010 8:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rec’d for the amazing number-crunching! :-) Good post!

I need a snappy signature...

by IRockTheRed on Feb 2, 2010 9:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

WOW, GREAT JOB

Very deep and thorough research of the current season stats. Unfortunately, Caps and Ovie haters will not bother to read it. I feel that the easiest way for Caps to prove your point is to win the CUP.
GO CAPS!!!

by puckoff on Feb 2, 2010 12:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nice job

Any chance we can mass email this out to all the caps-hating media?

by Elliotte on Feb 2, 2010 12:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wow. thanks for the love fest, guys. Nice to know the work is appreciated.
I’ll try to do this again at the end of the season when all games have been played because the main argument against my work is that it only takes in part of the schedule (only 1 game played against Pens, for exemple).
Although at that time no one’s gonna give a darn. We’ll all be looking for something bigger.

by benjik on Feb 2, 2010 2:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

NJD has played 16 games vs SE, and are 12-4.

We’ve played 14. We’re 12-2.

Bruins have the fewest, at 10. Buff and Pitt at 11.

But, if the SED is so weak, and we get “Soooo many more games” vs SED, then why do the other teams lose so much more often to the SED? Might it be that the SED is weak because they play in Washington’s division?

by FFSEnough on Feb 2, 2010 3:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wind the clock back a few weeks to when Ottawa started their 9 game win streak and run the stats again, and I bet the SE looks stronger than the NE. By the end of the season, I suspect the NE will be the weakest division in the East – especially if Carolina keeps playing better and Ottawa comes back to Earth.

The eagle never lost so much time as when he submitted to learn from the crow.

by Hystricine on Feb 2, 2010 5:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I still don’t think the Southeast is as tough as other divisions, but when you also look at the playoff wild card spots there’s only 2 or 3 teams in the entire league not capable of winning the wild card.

Last years playoffs featured 2 from the SE, 2 from the NE, and 4 from the ATL. The 2nd round teams however featured 2 from the SE, 1 from the NE and ATL. 07-08 the Caps were the only SE team to make the cut as a division leader featuring 94 points, the wild card cutoff in the East. If we were to end the season right now the east would feature, 2 from the NE and SE and 3 from the ATL

Currently the lowest ranked wild cards points are 57 for the east, there are 5 teams within 3 points of making the “cut”. If you were to add the total points from each team in a division together you’d see this: 1) Pacific 339 points 2) Atlantic 313 points 2) Central 313 points 4) Northeast 296 points 4) Central 296 6) Southeast 293 points.

Taking out the division leaders we see this: 1) Pacific 258 points, 2) Atlantic 241 points, 3) Central 235 4) Northwest 226 5) Northeast 222 6) Southeast 213

Still good reason to call it the Southleast, but lets see how the divisions fare individually against the SE

Atlantic combined record agianst the SE: 41-26-6. The NEvSE 34-23-6 SEvSE: 36-30-6 Central 14-6-4 Northwest 10-6-3 and Pacific 13-8-2.

Point % average for the Division against the SE: Central .681 Northwest .67 Atlantic .603 Northeast .591 Southeast .545 Pacific .533

Though the West division samples are considerably smaller than the East divisions(about 20 games vs 60 game sample sizes), against the SE division, it is interesting to see the Pacific division possibly the toughest division(or at least the most winning-est) has the lowest win % against the SE. But for the East coast the spread of win % range from .603 to .545 a spread of .058. Almost 6% spread. I wouldn’t say that’s a very big margin.

perhaps later i will expand this and put it into a spreadsheet for more clean mathematical analysis

People are stupid, a person is smart. This leads me to believe there must be at least one smart hockey fan in Philly.

by breaklance on Feb 2, 2010 3:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Expanded Spreadsheet featuring W-L-OTL for all 6 divisions against the 3 East Divisions
http://public.sheet.zoho.com/public/breaklance/nhl-1
At the bottom is a quicker table for the division averages and combined w-l-otl totals.

What is interesting to see is the last figure shown on that table. Average Division P% Against, basically averaging each divisions P% against the one division. The entire league averages ###% points per game against these 5 teams. What I found was League vs NE P% .60535. League vs ATL P% .603902. League vs SE P% .6039. Of these 3 divisions, southeast has the lowest, if barely, P% against the entire league, including themselves.

People are stupid, a person is smart. This leads me to believe there must be at least one smart hockey fan in Philly.

by breaklance on Feb 2, 2010 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

interesting, but you’re going too fast.
When figuring the average P% of a group of teams, you shouldn’t average directly the P% of each team, but look at total W, L, and OTL, and recalculate the average. The difference can be quite different, if one team plays less games than the other. I haven’t redone the calculations but I suspect this might change your results.
Also, technically, your P% should be multiplied by 2. That has no impact though.
What is really interesting in your analysis is you take it the other way around: I looked at how much points each division gathers against the other divisions. You looked at what the other divisions gather against each.
Subtle difference? Well, the main difference (I believe) between these 2 approaches is the overtime period, which screws the whole thing up, awarding one extra point.
It comes back to the comment by Macvechkin. The SE has been brutal in OT.

by benjik on Feb 2, 2010 5:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

of course, reply fait. This is directed towards breaklance.

by benjik on Feb 2, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rec’d first for the work, if I had a second rec to give, it would be for including the jump before all those tables. Thank you!

Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!

by Knee high to a duck on Feb 3, 2010 9:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

What is the record for consective wins in the nhl?

I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"

by wolfmanshowlforever on Feb 7, 2010 11:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That question probably best belongs in Clips. But I’ll answer while I’m here.17 wins in a row. Pens in ’92-93.

"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich

by CP2Devil on Feb 8, 2010 8:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don’t look now, but the Caps have more wins against Atlantic division teams than anyone in the league….including the teams in the Atlantic division….

by psuscott1 on Feb 8, 2010 3:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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Southeast Standings

	GP	W	L	OTL	PT
Washington Japers' Rink	70	47	14	9	103
Atlanta Bird Watchers Anonymous	69	29	29	11	69
Tampa Bay Raw Charge	69	28	29	12	68
Florida Litter Box Cats	68	28	30	10	66
Carolina Canes Country	69	28	33	8	64