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Further to the Strength of Schedule Issue

On the Forecheck (via Puckdaddy) has some updated numbers regarding Strength of Schedule for the balance of the season,  and adds some additional angles to consider.

Caps looking goooooood here.  Relatively few back-to-back sets, bad opponents, and fewer road games than the rest of the contenders for the top seed in the East.

Looking at it another way, if the Devils put it in gear and play, say, .700 hockey the rest of the way (note that their current win points pct is .667), they end up with 111.2 points.  Let's be generous and round them up to 112 points.

The Caps would only need to play .611 hockey for the balance of the schedule to end up with 113 points.

Of course, the one club with an "easier" schedule than the Caps is those very same NJD.  But they have two more sets of back-to-back games, and their opponents, while they have a lower points percentage, have a slightly higher 5 v. 5 goal ratio.  In rough terms, a wash (?).

By one metric, at least, the Caps are a 70% favorite to take the top seed in the East.  Their schedule, which gets particularly east after the Olympic break, has got to be a major factor in that number.

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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One game at a time. And I’m savoring every one.

IS KEPTIN NOW

by EmilyB on Feb 1, 2010 3:56 PM EST reply actions  

I think Nate mentioned that the Caps could play .500 the rest of the way (13-14 I think was the number) and they’d still get 50 wins.

Damn! Looks like my women is on time.

by Bald Pollack on Feb 1, 2010 5:03 PM EST reply actions  

that’s absolutely wrong. Just WRONG. I can’t even wrap my head around that. it’s nuts.

Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
On Draper having to wear a USA jersey at practice: "well at least the Wings can settle bets without involving gold plated desert eagles!"

by RedBirdie on Feb 2, 2010 11:34 AM EST up reply actions  

You know this inevitably leads to the requisite bologna about us playing in a crappy division. I mean, those 8 extra games in division really make a difference. Look at the Atlantic vs. Southeast and compare the overall ‘strength’ of schedule.

Caps = Pens (not really, but follow along)
Philadelphia = Florida
NYR = Atlanta
NYI = TBay
NJD > Carolina (but not by as much as you’d think)

So if you are the Penguins that means you get two extra games against Jersey, whereas the Caps get two extra games against Carolina over an 82 game season. Otherwise the Caps play 6 extras against Atl, TB, Fla and the Pens play 6 extras against Phi, NYR, NYI. Complete wash.

Something to ponder next time anyone starts with the crap about the Caps being in the SE division.

Russian Machine very rarely breaks.

by macvechkin on Feb 1, 2010 5:12 PM EST reply actions  

Freud would be proud!
…which gets particularly east after the Olympic break…

I’m guessing you meant “…particularly easy after…”

As they say in golf, good miss!

PuckDaddy be damned, I'm putting CincoCinco on the back of a Schultz jersey!

by Chris meet Alex on Feb 1, 2010 6:22 PM EST reply actions  

Maybe, maybe not

Post Olympics there are 20 games. Columbus, Calgary, Chicago and Dallas are it for the west.

"The Caps fan doesn't say, 'is the glass half full' or 'is the glass half empty'. He wonders when the glass is going to spill."

by gfcaps fan on Feb 2, 2010 4:46 PM EST up reply actions  

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