Penalties and Playing With a Lead
by J.P. on Dec 8, 2010 11:00 AM EST
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PrintIn perhaps a bit of gamesmanship prior to Monday night's Caps/Leafs game, Ted Leonsis noted on his blog that Toronto is a team that "knows how to earn power plays" and that they "have more than us this season - that is for sure."
That last fact might surprise some people, and if that one didn't, you probably wouldn't find too many folks who would have known that Toronto has the largest differential between the number of power-play opportunities they've had and the number of times they've been shorthanded in the League (28; the Caps are third-worst at minus-20).
How can that be? Is it a vast Leafswing conspiracy orchestrated by the League to prop up Toronto's team? Doubtful (and if that's the plan, it's failing miserably). Are players like Kris Versteeg such dynamic offensive threats that opposing skaters have no choice but to foul them, lest they march unimpeded to the goal? Not quite.
More likely than either of those, one of the reasons that the Leafs have such a splendid penalty plus-minus is that, well, they kinda stink.
To be more precise, they've lost a lot of games and have a bad goal differential, which means that they're frequently trailing their opponents, and that's the key point here. Why? Because teams that trail draw more penalties than do teams playing with a lead [and you really should be sure to take some time and read the post at that link]. The Caps, of course, are towards the opposite end of the spectrum from the Leafs, and it may be one reason they have such a poor penalty ratio.
Now, this doesn't mean that every game will follow that pattern, or that every team that spends the bulk of its time playing with a lead will be on the short end of the power-play stick and every lottery-bound loser will have more than its fair share of power-play practice over the course of the season. But what it does mean is that games are both played and officiated to the score. And I don't think that Leonsis or Caps fans want to test the hypothesis by watching their team switch positions with the likes of the Leafs for any extended period of time.
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What’s known as the “MarioKart Phenomenon,” in which the trailing driver always got the good items.
Score effects may have an impact, but the Caps aren’t as disciplined as they should be, either.
Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.
by SmallZ827 on Dec 8, 2010 11:18 AM EST reply actions 7 recs
No doubt. This isn’t meant to assert the reason, but rather a likely contributor.
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Which it likely is. I just find myself getting frustrated with this team because if they took their heads out of their asses and played like they cared, especially when they have a lead, any real or imagined referee bias would likely end up negligible. The Caps are talented enough that they should win a good portion of their games, even if the PP disparity is 4-1 in the other team’s favor.
Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.
But what it does mean is that games are both played and officiated to the score.
So much for the legendary objectivity of NHL refereeing……..
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And I suppose the “officiating to the score” tendancies can be broken down by individual referees. It would be interesting to see which officials are more prone to “officiate to the score”.
Working on that, actually… I’m also working on which referees call which penalties more frequently than others… (who’s sensitive to hooking, for example). It’s a LONG project…
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I have been wondering about some of the referees since some call many penalties while others seem to let tings go, and since fans feel certain refs are always against their team). Are you also looking at commonly paired refs to see if patterns of calls exist in those situations? I look forward to reading your conclusions.
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Not necessarily. In general, you can expect a trailing team to out Fenwick/Corsi a leading team. If you buy that it’s a good proxy for puck possession, then trailing teams have better puck possession than leading teams, spend more time in the offensive zone, and draw more penalties.
My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the most unpredictable team in the NHL and where we defend Mike Green, Alex Ovechkin, and Alexander Semin until the bitter end. That is to say, when someone tries to call BS on the Corsi numbers.
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"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
by red army line on Dec 8, 2010 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
Actually, never mind. I should have read the second half of JLikens’ post more closely.
My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the most unpredictable team in the NHL and where we defend Mike Green, Alex Ovechkin, and Alexander Semin until the bitter end. That is to say, when someone tries to call BS on the Corsi numbers.
If you don't know how to use Timeonice, read this.
"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
by red army line on Dec 8, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
This post wasn’t what I thought it might be.
I expected a chastening about working harder draws more penalties.
I’m sad.
It’s still interesting… and the article it links to is VERY interesting.
I don’t believe after Dallas it was any accident that our last two games have been officiated by very experienced officials in Bill McCreary/Stephane Auger and Kelly Sutherland/Ian Walsh. I was actually pleased with the officiating in the Toronto game; it was called a bit loosely, but it was called fairly – and that’s the piece that has been missing of late. Sutherland and Walsh did a great job officiating that game.
I mean really – how many free high sticks to Chimera’s mouth does the other team get before they get called for it, even when he’s spitting blood on the ice?
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but experienced doesn’t mean good. Auger has got to be one of the worst refs in the game, and it was he and McCreary that missed the multiple high sticks to Chimera the other night. O’Rourke is the guy who blew the call in Dallas, and he’s anything but inexperienced; He has 400+ games of NHL officiating experience.
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I love how only 2 teams have worse differentials than the Caps, but there are 13 teams with more PIM’s than the Caps. Must be less penalties getting called against their opponents or something….
There is no problem a hammer cannot either fix or make irrelevant.
Very interesting analysis. This is why I love Japers Rink! I find it interesting that according to the data you linked to, only one team in the entire NHL doesn’t take more penalties than their opponent whether they are tied, trailing or leading. You will never guess…
!!!!!!!!
It’s Pittsburgh. They have a positive penalty differential when tied or trailing, and are dead even when leading, according the JLikens article.
NYR are positive while trailing and leading, but negative while tied.
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It’s Pittsburgh. They have a positive penalty differential when tied or trailing, and are dead even when leading, according the JLikens article.
[tinfoil hat]Oh, I am just sooooo surprised[/tinfoil hat]
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You can reference this chart for Mr. Bird next time he throws on his Wing-Nut conspiracy hat. The only team that has a better differential while trailing is Carolina, and the Wings are above-average in both tied and trailing differential.
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by Knee high to a duck on Dec 8, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
I’ve given up on him. hopeless. I’ve just accepted it as a fact of wings fandom and try not to be in the same room when the game is on.
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Actually, that is interesting. There are only 2 teams who have drawn as many/more penalties as they have taken while leading. And Minnesota is the only other one who’s close – with 1 more penalty taken than drawn while leading.
There is no problem a hammer cannot either fix or make irrelevant.
I really don’t want to go down that road but if you were to claim bias I have to think the penalties drawn while leading would be the most relevant category. Honestly it probably has to do more with the attendance. Packed arenas such as MSG, Mellon and Xcell probably put a lot of pressure on the refs to make calls no matter the situation.
VC would give an advantage if that was true, and it doesn’t.
There is no problem a hammer cannot either fix or make irrelevant.
it’s never stopped the refs from calling phantom penalties at the VC, or outright ignoring obvious penalties.
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I would be curious to see what the Capitals stats would look like without Alexander Semin. We know from the Colin Campbell emails that the league assigns and factors reputations in the officiating process. I have also wondered how the league feels about many of Boudreau’s post game interviews.
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