Tomas Fleischmann's Streak

by J.P. on Nov 5, 2010 11:01 AM EDT

When it became apparent over the summer that Tomas Fleischmann was going to be the Caps' second-line center heading into the season, the associated concerns of most onlookers focused on the Czech pivot's defensive shortcomings. After all, in 2009-10 Flash had the worst 5-on-5 Corsi rating and goals-against-on-ice-per-sixty (GAON/60) of any forward that spent the entire season on the team, and he was arguably the team's worst penalty-killing forward, considering his GAON/60 at 4-on-5 and the quality of competition and teammates contributing to that number (and nearly all of those stats were compiled while Fleischmann was playing the less defensively-demanding position of left wing).

The concerns were valid. And they still are. Tomas Fleischmann is not a viable long-term solution to center the second line of a Stanley Cup hopeful.

But a dozen games into the season, Flash has been on the ice for just one goal against, and that came just 7:57 into the first game of the season (you remember it - a bad turnover at the top of the defensive zone that Evander Kane converted to tie the game at one). In other words, Fleischmann has played 174:43 (sixth-most per game of all Caps forwards) without the opposition scoring a single goal. That's good enough for the fourth-best GAON/60 at 5-on-5 among all NHL forwards who have played ten or more minutes over ten or more games.

To be sure, this is an unsustainable pace for Flash (especially if he continues with a bad Corsi rating against even weak competition and a brutal faceoff win percentage). But it's a run worth recognizing, if for no other reason than that it has allayed some of our biggest fears about Fleischmann as a center... so far.

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If this streak were actually a result of Flesichmann playing well defensively, I’d be happier. Better to be lucky than good, I suppose.

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by SmallZ827 on Nov 5, 2010 11:11 AM EDT reply actions

Three hours of ice time without a single goal against is more than just “playing mediocre with good luck,” methinks.

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by Jake Shapiro on Nov 5, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Perhaps, but when you look at Flash’s underlying stats and watch him play, you get the feeling that his run is unsustainable. He’s getting out-shot while he’s on the ice despite playing most of the season with two good players and starting 54% of his shifts in the offensive zone.

Still, if you look at zone starts vs. finishes, his shift is on par with the other members of the top-6, so the blame can’t be laid all at his feet.

And I hear you talk the talk, but I don't see you walk the walk and I still don't believe a thing you say.

by D'ohboy on Nov 5, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

He starts in the offensive zone more often than not, can’t win faceoffs, and helps the team get outshot when he’s on the ice. Plus, watching him play nothing screams “good defense.”

Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.

by SmallZ827 on Nov 5, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Furthermore, Sv% while he’s on the ice is .985, by far the highest on the team. Looks pretty lucky to me and that he’s not the engine driving that streak.

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by SmallZ827 on Nov 5, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, his PDO is bizonkers. Utterly unsustainable run he’s on, and even if it somehow were to be sustainable (within reason, of course), how good is a 2nd line center that you can’t even put out for a defensive zone draw?

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by J.P. on Nov 5, 2010 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions

So, too, unfortunately, are Laich’s and Johansson’s (to a lesser extent with Mackan). I’m beginning to think that maybe the 2C we need isn’t currently on this roster…

Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.

by SmallZ827 on Nov 5, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions

I’m beginning to think that maybe the 2C we need isn’t currently on this roster…

Beginning?

And I hear you talk the talk, but I don't see you walk the walk and I still don't believe a thing you say.

by D'ohboy on Nov 5, 2010 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions

The ellipsis should have given away my snark.

Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.

by SmallZ827 on Nov 5, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Ah, the ellipto-snark.

And I hear you talk the talk, but I don't see you walk the walk and I still don't believe a thing you say.

by D'ohboy on Nov 5, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I wish that were true, but we see lucky streaks like that all the time. Stuff that looks like it ought to be causal just on sheer volume can actually still be luck.

"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box

by Knee high to a duck on Nov 5, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions

My fears are alive and well, and considering the fact that Flash has bounced around from #2C to #3C to part-time #3W, Bruce isn’t totally pleased with his play either. I think he’s in line for a rude regression.

I had hopes that he could at least replicate BMo’s production over the course of the regular season. He may still, but I don’t think it’ll look pretty.

And I hear you talk the talk, but I don't see you walk the walk and I still don't believe a thing you say.

by D'ohboy on Nov 5, 2010 11:23 AM EDT reply actions

While I (obviously) agree with your underlying concerns, I’d note that part of the reason he was bumped to the third line was to try to get Fehr and Chimera going. It was less of a demotion and more of a shakeup.

But yeah… sell high! Sell high!

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by J.P. on Nov 5, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions

I was gonna write this, but I cut it out:

Flash is neither good at gaining possession of the puck (faceoffs), nor does he seem to be very good at maintaining possession of it (generally soft on the puck). His main talent seems to be a knack for scoring in limited opportunities which, while valuable, isn’t necessarily what the Caps need out of their #2C.

In my opinion, the struggles of Fehr and Chimera were slightly overblown, since those guys were (at the time) getting really tough zonestarts and finishing upward of 50% of their shifts in the offensive zone. This is even more surprising when you consider that they were doing it with a center who was losing almost 65% of his draws. An even remotely decent Corsi/Fenwick in that situation is almost miraculous. Fehr in particular seemed to have good jump on Wednesday, but he pissed it all away with his stupid offensive-zone tripping penalty.

If we’re looking to “sell high” on Flash, one potential destination could be the team we played on Wednesday. Toronto has more D than they know what to do with and only two or three players (depending on how you view Grabovski) who are remotely dangerous with the puck on their stick. A Flash+prospect/pick for Beauchemin deal would be beneficial for both teams. Any such deal would hinge, however, on the Caps feeling comfortable with a Laich/MP/Mackan #2C by committee until we can acquire a real one.

And I hear you talk the talk, but I don't see you walk the walk and I still don't believe a thing you say.

by D'ohboy on Nov 5, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions

All fair points.

Btw, I don’t think I’ve ever written something so backhandedly complimentary as this post.

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by J.P. on Nov 5, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

It might have been easier just to write, “Great job, asshole!”

Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.

by SmallZ827 on Nov 5, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

Thanks for the Friday chuckle. :)

And I hear you talk the talk, but I don't see you walk the walk and I still don't believe a thing you say.

by D'ohboy on Nov 5, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

DING!

Tell your girlfriend to stop texting me.

by hotdog88gt on Nov 5, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions

You did a great job typing this considering one hand was holding your nose…or did you use a clothes pin?

Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...

by dcsportsfan1 on Nov 5, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Our 2C regression: Fedorov > B. Morrison > Flash. And truth be told Feds wasn’t that great of a 2C. How the hell did McPhee let the team get into this situation?!? I am a firm believer that our playoff hopes firmly hinge on finding a 2C and am in no way comfortable with a Laich/MP/Mackan 2C-by-committee solution. Just a vent.

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by Kareem E. on Nov 5, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Go back one step further and it’s Nylander > Fedorov > B. Morrison > Flash.

Todd White’s on waivers…

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by J.P. on Nov 5, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions

forget Todd White….can you skate?

The "Other" Box Seats Blogger

by Kareem E. on Nov 5, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Not terribly well. Then again, that hasn’t hindered David Steckel too much. Zing!

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by J.P. on Nov 5, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Painfully accurate.

by TrolleyLeaguer on Nov 5, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Wasn’t it Beech before Nylander? Or was Nylander the guy who is going to mentor Beech

Many a night from yonder ivied casement, ere I went to rest,
Did I look on great Orion sloping slowly to the West.

by sydtron on Nov 5, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions

nevermind, Beech didn’t return till after Nylander left the first time.

Many a night from yonder ivied casement, ere I went to rest,
Did I look on great Orion sloping slowly to the West.

by sydtron on Nov 5, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Jiri Novotny!

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Nov 5, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Jakub Klepis!

And I hear you talk the talk, but I don't see you walk the walk and I still don't believe a thing you say.

by D'ohboy on Nov 5, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Andrew Cassels’ corpse!

(unfortunately this can go on a lot longer)

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Nov 5, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Boyd Gordon!
(oh wait, that was the first line)

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Nov 5, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Some of the best 2Cs in the league would be 1st line players on half the teams, and vice versa with those respective teams 1Cs becoming 2Cs. It’s the most demanding forward position and if you’re too good at it, you can go make a ton more money playing 1st line minutes somewhere.

Many a night from yonder ivied casement, ere I went to rest,
Did I look on great Orion sloping slowly to the West.

by sydtron on Nov 5, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions

If Semin is Mr. Inconsistent, Flash is Mr. Perplexing. I don’t get how he scores goals, and apparently now I don’t get how he can be so lucky to have a top 5 GAON/60.

Many a night from yonder ivied casement, ere I went to rest,
Did I look on great Orion sloping slowly to the West.

by sydtron on Nov 5, 2010 11:38 AM EDT reply actions

don’t get how he scores goals

He gets by on having a great shot.

Think twice before you speak, and then you may be able to say something more insulting than if you spoke right out at once.

by zephyr on Nov 5, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions

With what seems to me to be a quick release.

And he’s fast with the puck on his stick. The combo of those two things will allow you to score goals in the NHL, particularly in Boudreau’s system.

Much as Flash may annoy me, he is talented.

And I hear you talk the talk, but I don't see you walk the walk and I still don't believe a thing you say.

by D'ohboy on Nov 5, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Also, while he’s floaty in the offensive zone, he;s usually floating in front of the goal. Lots of whacks at rebounds.

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by apk3000 on Nov 5, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Except for in the first thirty seconds of the Leafs game when the puck was just sitting on or around the goal-line waiting to be jammed in, and Flash was nowhere to be found.

Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.

by SmallZ827 on Nov 5, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

And the flip side of that coin would be the area of the ice his goals have come from this year.

by Yoshietree on Nov 5, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Fair enough, but they were more the “stand in the low slot and let the puck rebound/get passed to you” rather than “fight fight fight and poke one home.”

Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.

by SmallZ827 on Nov 5, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions

No arguments from me…I actually agree. But let’s not forget that historically speaking that area of the ice is one that Flash rarely played in. How many times over the last two years has he scored from that area of the ice? Maybe I’m a glass half full kind of guy, but he seems to be making more of an effort to atleast get into the high traffic areas (compared to years past).

by Yoshietree on Nov 5, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions

The fact that he’s anywhere near the crease is great; Wednesday’s in particular just made me mad because that goal mouth was yawning.

Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.

by SmallZ827 on Nov 5, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I think that’s what everyone was raving about after his hot start in 2008-2009.

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by red army line on Nov 5, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Really? Maybe I have a more serious memory issue than originally thought…but I thought it was more about him just being off to a hot start

by Yoshietree on Nov 5, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I think it was actually last year, but once Flash got over the blood clot issue he came back and was scoring a bunch of goals by crashing the net. I was definitely hoping it was a sign of things to come, but clearly it wasn’t.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Nov 5, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions

And this is the problem with a lot of the Caps’ secondary and tertiary players – they play well in spurts long enough to convince you that maybe they’ve turned a corner when in actuality, they are the same player they’ve always been.

And I hear you talk the talk, but I don't see you walk the walk and I still don't believe a thing you say.

by D'ohboy on Nov 5, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

The plus side of this, though, is that if any of them actually turn the corner we won’t know it’s real until it’s already happened. It’ll be quite the pleasant surprise.

Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.

by SmallZ827 on Nov 5, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Too many secondary scorers who flip between scoring like first liners and scoring like 4th liners, and it’s hurt the Caps in the playoffs. If guys like Laich, Flash and Fehr could consistently score like secondary players the team would be better off in all likelihood.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Nov 5, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Laich, Flash and Fehr just are what they are by this point – streaky secondary scorers. That’s why they’re secondary scorers. There is no corner for them to turn. On a team with less talent at wing, all three players might score 30-odd goals if force-fed power play time, but none of them ought to be counted on for scoring on a regular basis.

The guys who upset me are the players like Steckel and Erskine who have played well for spurts long enough to convince the front office and coaching staff that they’re worth holding onto when, in actuality, they’re easily replaced at far lower cost.

And I hear you talk the talk, but I don't see you walk the walk and I still don't believe a thing you say.

by D'ohboy on Nov 5, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions

That is what gets me, he just sort of skates around in his own world and the puck goes out of its way to find him. Maybe he’s just that good at finding soft areas but it never, ever seems like he works for the puck. The puck always just seems to work for him.

Not discounting his shot, either, he has one of the better shots on the team but he rarely if ever creates the space to use it.

Many a night from yonder ivied casement, ere I went to rest,
Did I look on great Orion sloping slowly to the West.

by sydtron on Nov 5, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions