Capitals Black Friday Giveaways (and Takeaways)

by J.P. on Nov 26, 2010 11:30 AM EST

As we've discussed before, giveaways and takeaways are notoriously among the most subjective (and thus inconsistent) stats kept by the NHL. The Caps, for example, supposedly have a 1.07 takeaway-to-giveaway ratio on the road, and a 0.84 ratio at home (thanks, in part, to a per-game giveaway rate that's nearly 75% higher at home). Yeah, I'm not really buying that either.

That said, among players on the same team - playing in front of the same scorekeepers on a nightly basis - there can be some value in looking at these puck possession stats as a measure of what each player is doing relative to his teammates. With that in mind, here's a look at the giveaway and takeaway numbers for each skater who has suited up for the Caps this season (data via NHL.com; click on column header to sort that column):

Player	GP	TOI	TkA	GvA	TkA/Min	GvA/Min	(TkA-GvA)/Min
Alexander Semin	23	428.15	29	15	0.068	0.035	0.033
Nicklas Backstrom	23	463.55	29	16	0.063	0.035	0.028
Mike Knuble	20	340.95	12	4	0.035	0.012	0.023
Boyd Gordon	14	181.67	4	0	0.022	0.000	0.022
Matt Hendricks	22	250.25	5	0	0.020	0.000	0.020
David Steckel	20	235.87	5	1	0.021	0.004	0.017
Jason Chimera	23	314.28	12	8	0.038	0.025	0.013
Eric Fehr	22	284.32	6	3	0.021	0.011	0.011
Tomas Fleischmann	22	316.57	10	8	0.032	0.025	0.006
Matt Bradley	18	179.72	3	2	0.017	0.011	0.006
Marcus Johansson	13	163.27	6	6	0.037	0.037	0.000
Brian Fahey	4	41.72	0	0	0.000	0.000	0.000
Jay Beagle	1	6.62	0	0	0.000	0.000	0.000
Brooks Laich	23	411.55	10	11	0.024	0.027	-0.002
Alex Ovechkin	23	493.87	18	21	0.036	0.043	-0.006
Tom Poti	6	124.17	2	3	0.016	0.024	-0.008
John Erskine	23	356.70	5	11	0.014	0.031	-0.017
Karl Alzner	23	433.07	4	13	0.009	0.030	-0.021
Mike Green	19	484.97	10	21	0.021	0.043	-0.023
John Carlson	23	510.38	15	28	0.029	0.055	-0.025
Jeff Schultz	23	507.35	4	17	0.008	0.034	-0.026
Tyler Sloan	17	208.07	5	11	0.024	0.053	-0.029
D.J. King	6	33.33	1	2	0.030	0.060	-0.030
Mathieu Perreault	3	34.00	1	3	0.029	0.088	-0.059

So what jumps out at you (other than the need for the NHL to get better at its stat-keeping)?

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Green jumps out, and not in a good way. That TkA/GvA ratio is baaaaaad.

Semin isn’t unexpected at the top, but it’s nice to see that, amongst all the other improvements to his game, he’s getting the puck more than he’s losing it. Nicky I expect to see up there. And while I know the sample size is extremely limited, Boyd Gordon and Matt Hendricks are awesome and it’s nice to see their quiet, grind it out work near the top. Without guys like them, the caps aren’t quite the top-to-bottom threat that they are (when they’re all clicking).

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by RedBirdie on Nov 26, 2010 11:39 AM EST reply actions

Defensemen have fewer opportunities for takeaways. I don’t think Green’s numbers are bad at all, considering how much the puck is on his stick and how often he tries relatively high risk plays.

With a guy like Green, there are going to be giveaways. That’s just the nature of his game. My main question is where are they occurring? Giveaways at the blue line are much more dangerous than attempts at home-run passes that, if they work one time in five, will be a goal one time in ten.

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Nov 26, 2010 12:57 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed. Last year Drew Doughty had 73 giveaways and 20 takeaways, and many folks thought he should’ve won the Norris. Tyler Myers had 94 GvA and 30 TkA and he won the Calder. In fact, of the top-30 D in GvA last year, Green had the 8th-best TkA:GvA ratio (and, of course, he outscored all of the guys ahead of him).

Defensemen are often going to have more giveaways than forwards. Offensive-minded players are generally going to have more than defensive-minded ones. Combine the two – Green – and you get a good number of giveaways, but Green has shown an ability to mitigate them with takeaways pretty well. And, of course, there’s the caveat that comparing guys on different teams in these metrics is pretty effin’ worthless anyway.

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by J.P. on Nov 26, 2010 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

Is the high number of giveaways from Ovechkin, Green, and Carlson explained by playing the point on the PP? I’m not familiar enough with other teams’ power play units to look up their points’ numbers.

by HolyJumpin on Nov 26, 2010 11:50 AM EST reply actions

Is there a definition of how a giveaway/takeway is supposed to be scored? I envision a giveaway to be when someone litteraly takes possetion away from you and vice versa for takeaway. However, I could also see a giveaway being an intercepted passing/clearing attempt similar to basketball.

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by dcsportsfan1 on Nov 26, 2010 11:51 AM EST reply actions

I think that’s part of the problem, no real definition. I try to analogize it to forced or unforced errors in tennis. If you hound the shit out of a guy and stick check the puck away, you get a takeaway. If you happen to be floating through the neutral zone and an errant pass from the other team lands on your stick, it’s a giveaway. But that’s my subjective interpretation and I haven’t seen any official definitions from the NHL.

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by Rob Parker on Nov 26, 2010 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

Sneaky Lars and Sasha, stealin’ the puck away.

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by EmilyB on Nov 26, 2010 11:56 AM EST reply actions

What else is new? If memory serves me correctly, those two guys are usually our best take away artists.

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by CapsFan75 on Nov 26, 2010 12:01 PM EST up reply actions

Here, our forwards are better in the Giveaway/Takeaway Department as a whole than our defensemen. Is that a function of our Top 4 defensemen being so young, as in 25 and under?

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by CapsFan75 on Nov 26, 2010 12:05 PM EST reply actions

What stat surprises me? A combined 45 TkA to 104 GvA for Defenseman, that’s just sad.

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by Chaz-Capapalooza on Nov 26, 2010 12:34 PM EST reply actions

Then again, is it? Considering defenseman aren’t involved in the rush as often and they are usually the first to get back and try to dish pucks out of their own end, resulting in a defending player keeping the puck in (giveaway). Maybe that stat is pretty consistent with most teams in the NHL. Just the ratios are different.

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by Chaz-Capapalooza on Nov 26, 2010 12:41 PM EST up reply actions

This issue is sorta at the heart of my problem with these stats. By definition:

Takeaway – A takeaway occurs when pressure from the defending team results in a defending player gaining possession of the puck.

Giveaway – A giveaway is when a players own actions result in a loss of possession to the opposing team.

To me, they shouldn’t have giveaways and takeaways, but rather they should have turnover plus minus. Pass a puck that gets picked off? You get a minus and the other guy gets a plus. Have your pocket picked? You get a minus and the other guy gets a plus.

As it stands now, in the first scenario, you get a giveaway and in the second the other guy gets a takeaway. The “either/or” makes it tougher to evaluate puck possession (not to mention that it’s often unclear whether one guy gave it away or the other guy took it). When there’s a change in possession, someone should get a plus and someone should get a minus, IMO.

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by J.P. on Nov 26, 2010 12:39 PM EST reply actions 2 recs

Definitely would be an improvement. I also wonder how dump ins get scored. It looks like our dump and chase players come out pretty well in the ratio, but under a strict interpretation of the Giveaway definition you could call every dump in a Giveaway.

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by Rob Parker on Nov 26, 2010 4:48 PM EST up reply actions

I wonder if, by nature, the Caps defensemen have a worse ratio due to most takeaways in the defensive zone result from hard back checks and the team’s inability to break out of the zone on a regular basis.

by Yoshietree on Nov 26, 2010 12:42 PM EST reply actions

I’ve noticed a lot of the inability to break out of the zone comes from either Alzner, Carlson, or Sloan. Green typically does a good job of getting the puck up to our forwards, but his bad ratio comes from the neutral zone and in the offensive zone. I feel like Ovechkin and Green will pass to each other too much and try to get too cute on the rush resulting in a turnover and sometimes, a goal. Regardless, I think you’re right about the back checking, I would think opposing teams are dominating us in terms of time spent in the offensive zone.

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by Chaz-Capapalooza on Nov 26, 2010 12:47 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks for the definitions.

So if Stamkos is rushing the puck and he gets pressured by Semin which causes him to cough up the puck where it just happens to get picked up by Ovi, does Ovi get credit for the takeaway or does Semin?

Also, if Green dumps the puck in to get a line change and it’s handled by the other teams goalie, is that considered a giveway since his own actions resulted in a loss of possetion? What if they are clearing the puck on the PK?

So many stupid questions, so little to do today at work…

Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...

by dcsportsfan1 on Nov 26, 2010 12:53 PM EST reply actions

"what jumps out at you?"

3 in the top 30.

2 in the top 3.

Either the scorers at Verizon are extremely generous, or the young guns are very good at picking pockets, or both.

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Nov 26, 2010 1:06 PM EST reply actions

Nick and Sasha are good at stealing pucks… Ovie’s no slouch either (See Game 1 of the 2008 playoffs… the game winning goal was pure theivery…)

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by MikeL-Pivonka on Nov 26, 2010 1:36 PM EST up reply actions

What jumps out at me from this chart is that only 2 of the top 30 are defensemen. I think it is probably harder for a defenseman to get a takeaway for the fact that they usually aren’t pressuring as much as the forwards, who go into the corners more often, esp. on the forecheck.

With regards to the Caps numbers, most of the defensemen are at the bottom with the top defenseman with more than 10 games (Poti will get there, I know… but not yet) is Erskine at -0.017, followed the rest of the defensmen who have played the most this season for the Caps.

There needs to be some measurement on this that takes into account the nature of the position the player plays…

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by MikeL-Pivonka on Nov 26, 2010 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

By that metric, the hawks have even MORE generous scorers, with six players in the top 30.

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by EmilyB on Nov 26, 2010 1:21 PM EST reply actions

The two surprises there for me are how high Flash is and how terrible MP is in that metric. It doesn’t seem like Flash gets that many takeaways. Also, I didn’t quite realize how good the 4th liners were. Between Steckel, Gordon, Brads, and Hendricks, they have 17 takeaways to 3 giveaways – that is incredible.

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by timmyv38 on Nov 26, 2010 2:46 PM EST reply actions

MP’s sample is almost meaningless. He wasn’t good in two of his games so you wouldn’t expect great numbers, but I don’t know that you can read too much into that one.

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by Rob Parker on Nov 26, 2010 4:50 PM EST up reply actions

Unless the giveaway or takeaway subsequently results in a goal I don’t see how this statistic has any real meaning. I rank it right up there with franchise records versus other teams.

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by hotdog88gt on Nov 26, 2010 3:15 PM EST reply actions

That makes a lot of sense. Because puck possession doesn’t matter much.

I assume the only stats that matter to you are goals for and goals against, and only within the context of individual games.

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by J.P. on Nov 26, 2010 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

You’re close.

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by hotdog88gt on Nov 26, 2010 10:49 PM EST up reply actions

Never mind.

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by hotdog88gt on Nov 26, 2010 10:58 PM EST up reply actions

Without a touches stat or something, it’s tough to judge. Guys who handle the puck a lot are going to have lots of giveaways.

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by red army line on Nov 27, 2010 12:01 PM EST up reply actions