Learning from Adversity
by Becca H on Nov 23, 2010 2:31 PM EST
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"I know it's everybody's sin, you got to lose to know how to win..."- Aerosmith, Dream On
A few weeks ago, former Capital and CSN analyst Alan May talked about how adversity can actually help a team down the line – whether it’s the adversity of a critical media, a series of injuries or a stretch of less-than-stellar play, the general sense is like that old saying: that which does not kill us makes us stronger.
Well, as the Caps struggle through one of their worst stretches in recent memory, there ain’t nobody dead. So the other part must be true, right? That with each day filled with bizarrely lopsided losses and ill-timed injury the team is, slowly but surely, getting stronger.
It’s certainly not a guarantee; it’s possible that adversity now (such as it is) is just a precursor to more adversity later, and at a worse point in the season. But it’s important to note two things. One, it’s only November - something that can never be overstated - and things that go wrong now have six months to be sorted out. Now is the time to experiment, to adjust, and yes, to fail.
And two, it happens (in varying degrees) to every team - you only have to look back at some recent Stanley Cup finalists to see it.
The 2008-09 Penguins were hardly a picture of dominance over the course of the season, following up their year as second place finishers to Detroit with a season of inconsistency. For them, it wasn’t a lengthy losing streak but a prolonged stretch of mediocrity that lasted from mid-November to late February; during that period of 44 games they hovered around .500 and only strung together back-to-back wins three times. On February 15 they replaced head coach Michel Therrien with Dan Bylsma and finished out the season an amazing 16-2-3 en route to their first Cup in almost twenty years.
Their two-time opponents in the Finals, the Detroit Red Wings, have been seen as a paradigm of consistency and dominance - a reputation well-earned and well-maintained over the last decade. Yet even they took their lumps, particularly in February of 2008, when they earned just one win in eleven tries and were shut out three times. Five of those losses came to teams who would finish well out of the playoff picture, and while they ended up with a winning record within their division, a 17-12-3 record against four teams whose highest finish was 8th is nothing to write home about.
Last year the Blackhawks were a fairly dominant team from start to finish, but even they had lapses. They went 3-7-1 between October 17 and November 6, then endured a fairly rough month of March in which they went 6-7-2 and won back-to-back games only once. Still, they came out of the season with a record of 52-22-8, a division title…and a Stanley Cup.
As for their opponents, the struggles of the 2009-10 Flyers were a season-long storyline (and resulted in a mid-season coaching change) – but central to that was a 20-game span from mid-November to mid-December that saw them earn exactly 5 wins while being shut out three times and outscored 64-38. It wasn’t the only rough patch, however, nor was it their last, as six wins in their final 17 games almost resulted in them missing the playoffs altogether.
To compare the Caps to any of these teams is not to say that they are definitely bound for the Stanley Cup Finals this year, nor is it to say that a run of three games in which they put together two horrific performances and one decent but ultimately losing effort is anywhere near a catastrophe. After all, despite a start that has admittedly been less than stellar they still sit atop the Southeast Division and are one of the top teams in the East. We've talked before about how a good team finds ways to win, and they're doing just that more often than not.
What it does show, however, is the fairly obvious yet always key fact that no team goes 82-0. Rarely does the team we see in October or November mirror the one we'll see in April or May or June. Whether it's by personnel changes on or behind the bench, system changes or just a simple attitude change (which may be the biggest issue with this team right now), there's time to fix what's wrong. And in the long run, things like this can bond a team together, teach them a few well-needed lessons about focus and help to provide them with the right mental state to go along with the talent - and push them further in the postseason.
Because two games is hardly twenty. Because this is hardly adversity compared to where the Caps were this time three years ago. And because we have to believe that which does not kill us makes us stronger.
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Yeah, I keep thinking this is actually a really good experience for the team. They went through last year almost entirely unchallenged, and never had to adapt…until they faced a team that screwed with their game in the first round of the playoffs and discovered that they didn’t know how to adapt. I’m hoping this stretch results in the development of those skills.
I agree with this. I think when their shooting luck and goalie luck regressed to the mean a bit they were a little unprepared to handle it well (well, moreso in Games 1 and early 5 than at any other time). Meanwhile, when you underperform all season, have to try and outplay your talents, then get a nice hot streak (MTL) it’s a recipe for good stuff. Chicago actually all of last season was 27th or so in team PDO (Caps were first), and I think Chicago was the better because of that, having to play better in front of their goalie.
by red army line on Nov 23, 2010 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
5-on-5 shooting% + save%. It’s generally close to 100%. The Caps were about 101.7% I think, and the Hawks about 98.7%. Individual PDOs are in the Corsi charts at behindthenet.ca, but JLikens had run the team numbers. Let me try and find a link.
by red army line on Nov 23, 2010 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
Never mind, it was SkinnyFish…and crap, the Caps were as far away from 2nd as 2nd was from 14.
Adversity reminds me of the 08-09 season, with all the injuries. For some reason that winter is summed up for me in a highlight of Sidney Crosby trying to score, getting tripped, and crashing on one knee into the boards.
by red army line on Nov 23, 2010 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
This is the one thing that worries me; the Caps inability to adapt. How many times have we played ‘well’ against a trap defense? If you look at the MTL series last year and our last two shutouts it seems as though the Caps aren’t adapting well to a team that shuts down the neutral zone. I have a feeling we will see a lot of this in the postseason.
Some people are like Slinkies, not really good for anything, but you still can't help but smile when you see one tumble down the stairs.
by Green_with_Envy on Nov 23, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
Great post Becca. I like that the Caps are not satisfied with their progress right now … even in their wins. I think this stretch certainly makes this team more of a team, and lets BB tinker with some stuff to figure out a best case scenario. I’m not saying I like to see the Caps lose games, however it’s better now than later.
If the Flyers of last season taught hockey fans anything, it’s … just make the playoffs, in any fashion, and play 2 fantastic months of hockey from there from there.
Someone once said that adversity doesn’t build character, it reveals it. I’m going to go out on another limb and say this stretch of adversity will eventually reveal the character of the Caps, individually and collectively, and I expect that revelation to be positive. The big picture is not to obsess over a few awful games in November, but what they learn on their way to playing like they’re capable of playing.
A lot of people have said a lot of things that sound really profound and meaningful, and while sometimes they may actually be as poignant as they read…it doesn’t apply to all aspects of life. It’s a common thread in sports that teams don’t win right away or overnight, in many ways you have to learn every way you can lose before you know all the things you need to fix. No magic to it, just basic facts of sports.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Nov 23, 2010 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
Can you believe we actually won the damn cup after those two 5-0 shut outs back in November? Jeez, we thought the sky was falling, and perhaps rightfully so. We sucked weenie for that stretch. Glad no one panicked. GMGM let the ship right itself and it did. I’d love to find all those pessimists on Japers’ Rink now. Shame they don’t come around any longer.
Signed,
My Future Self
June 20, 2011
Life With Spidey -- a blog about sports, travel, work, family and fun.
Representing Caps fandom in the Gateway to the West.
by STLSpidey on Nov 23, 2010 2:51 PM EST reply actions 7 recs
At some point someone should comb through the comment archives of the other teams’ blogs and see what people were saying during their team’s stretches of awful.
…I bet BSH was hilarious.
If anyone needs me, I'll be at Kettler.
that assumes that other blogs get comments :)
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
by RedBirdie on Nov 23, 2010 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
MarioD, heh. He thought they would miss the playoffs…
by red army line on Nov 23, 2010 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
Ha…we probably shouldn’t laugh. I thought they wouldn’t make the playoffs, either.
If anyone needs me, I'll be at Kettler.
Oli Jokinen will go down in Rangers and Flyers lore.
Life With Spidey -- a blog about sports, travel, work, family and fun.
Representing Caps fandom in the Gateway to the West.
Hilarious looking at it now, yes. Then, I’m sure not. Just like us now.
Life With Spidey -- a blog about sports, travel, work, family and fun.
Representing Caps fandom in the Gateway to the West.
Adversity is essential to a winning team. And in any championship season, I bet every team went through some type of hardship or losing streak.
The problem with this mantra is that it usually takes some drastic change to kick them out of habits. And there is no definitive formula or pattern for GMs or owners to sit down and say “this will work, this is what has to be done”.
I’m not saying Boudreau gets fired this season. In fact, I don’t think GMGM has it in him, nor is interested in this. I do think trading someone we all like (someone like Fehr, maybe even as extreme as Laich) would have to be used to get the piece that is needed.
by Charlie Foxtrot on Nov 23, 2010 3:03 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
So really it’s not adversity that is essential. It’s how a team responds to adversity.
And now we wait.
Will the response come quickly or will it take a while? Will it be an internal or external change?
Time will tell.
by Gin and Tonic on Nov 23, 2010 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
08-09 Pens, 07-08 Wings, 09-10 Hawks,09-10 Flyers- Teams with leaders and some Cup-winning experience. I’m sure that helped them get through the rough patches.
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
I’m looking at the Blackhawks roster from last year. The only cup winner I see is John Madden. The only other one that made it to the finals that I see is Marian Hossa.
Looking at the Flyers roster from last year. I see Chris Pronger,
The 2008-2009 Pens had been to the finals the year before. So, looking at the 2007-2008 Pens, I see Daryl Sydor (not on 2009 team), Mark Recchi (not on 2009 team), Sergei Gonchar — that’s it.
Sorry. I’m not saying it doesn’t hurt, but I don’t think it’s a criteria.
Life With Spidey -- a blog about sports, travel, work, family and fun.
Representing Caps fandom in the Gateway to the West.
I think experience helps to eliminate “rookie mistakes,” but some veterans make those mistakes (see Poti, Tom, on the PK, 2007-2010) and some rookies don’t make them (see Toews, Jonathan).
by red army line on Nov 23, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
Just saying that type of experience can certainly help, particularly during downswings like this and certainly in the playoffs.
I believe Ladd had a Cup from the Canes and I thought the Hawks had a guy who won with the Ducks. Can’t remeber the name.
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
by dcsportsfan1 on Nov 23, 2010 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
Was Boynton on the Ducks when they won?
Life With Spidey -- a blog about sports, travel, work, family and fun.
Representing Caps fandom in the Gateway to the West.
I don’t completely disagree in the premise but I think it differs depending on the team. Also, Ladd won a Cup w/ Carolina at 21. He was 24 last year. He’s technically experienced but not really, Knuble’s probably got about the same level of understanding. As for the former Duck, you’re probably thinking of Pahlsson – that was the year before, I believe.
If anyone needs me, I'll be at Kettler.
And of course I totally slept on Knuble being a Cup winner (twice). Anyone know if he’s even on the trip with the team?
Personally, I think whether you were 21 or 41, going through the grind of winning a Cup (or getting to the finals) is like no other effort in North American team sports. I don’t really think there is a substitute for that experience. Something I would like the Caps to add more of as the season goes on.
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
by dcsportsfan1 on Nov 23, 2010 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
Knuble’s not on the trip.
technically, he’s only won the Cup once :) 1998, although he’s in the 1997 picture.
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
And he only played 3 playoff games that year. Still, just being around a team (even as a Black Ace) has to be pretty great experience.
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
by dcsportsfan1 on Nov 23, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
08-09 Pens, 07-08 Wings, 09-10 Hawks,09-10 Flyers- Teams with leaders and some Cup-winning experience. I’m sure that helped them get through the rough patches.
Walking those teams back a year, the one thing all those teams share (save the Flyers) is that they got to their respective Conference Final or Cup Final before getting to the Cup the next year. Maybe getting close and seeing what’s done to do so might allow for a brainfart or two the next year, but it’s not like this team’s done anything substantial in the playoffs to warrant that correlation, IMHO.
"DON'T SAY THAT! Please! That is the worst, most stupid thing anyone could say! Cause it quite clearly isn't "only a game." I mean if it was do you honestly think I'd care this much?"
by Bald Pollack on Nov 23, 2010 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
Possibly. From the other side, though, we can always look at adversity from a playoff standpoint and list the teams that had an unexpected, horrific playoff loss in the first or second round and used that to springboard themselves into the Finals. I don’t think it’s so much what you use to get you past the adversity as it is a question of whether you have the ability to do so.
If anyone needs me, I'll be at Kettler.
Well then we’re back to the discussion of just what it is this team’s learned over three postseasons with a core that’s stayed fairly consistent over that time, if anything.
"DON'T SAY THAT! Please! That is the worst, most stupid thing anyone could say! Cause it quite clearly isn't "only a game." I mean if it was do you honestly think I'd care this much?"
by Bald Pollack on Nov 23, 2010 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
The funny thing is – the losses don’t bug me. I don’t feel any different about this team than I did a week ago. I’d actually prefer that the outcome on the ice reflect the subpar efforts and lack of focus that the team has shown since the beginning of the season. I’m much rather the team go through a slump than sleepwalk to the President’s Trophy only to get waxed in the playoffs.
And I hear you talk the talk, but I don't see you walk the walk and I still don't believe a thing you say.
by D'ohboy on Nov 23, 2010 4:28 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Herein lies the rub...
You can talk all you want about how a few losses here and there don’t matter, but the truth is, this team is less experienced than it was last year, and it shows. They are making the same kind of mistakes or worse, as they did last April, which points to another early exit when the games matter, this year. If the net was filled with money, alcohol or sex, your couldn’t keep the boys away from crashing it. As it stands now, only Brooks Laich, Mike Knuble and the 4th line guys wanna go near the goal, and that’s not gonna cut it. This team needs another offensive threat that can play at both ends of the rink. The time has come to fish or cut bait on Flash and/or Fehr. If they can’t play at both ends, it’s time to move them for someone who can. The team has made a committed decision to let the kids on defense learn the hard way, and that’s okay, as long as they figure it out before the trade deadline. The “team defense” idea is a good one, but everyone has to buy into it, every night, or the Caps will be beating golf balls or beginning their Turkish vacations in May again.
Caps fans – it’s only 3 losses in a row in November. The team is still tied for 1st place in the league. This is not adversity. It’s a speed bump.
If I fretted this much every time the Penguins had a “speed bump” since the lockout, I would’ve jumped off a bridge years ago.
Now, if the Caps are playing like this in April…well then you can start to worry.
The voice of reason comes from outside the bubble.
"Inglewood Jack! Inglewood Jack!" - Coach Jules
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Nov 23, 2010 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
It’s not the three losses that bothers me. As NHL Observer mentioned, they’re making the same mistakes that they did last year (and the year before that. And the year before that…). They’ve failed to show an ability to change their game or make adjustments when needed. They haven’t shown me anything with their play that tells me they’ve learned from past mistakes and failures.
That’s what bothers me.
The guy is Peter Schumpmaker. Lord knows what a schump is, but you can bet your bippy his ancestors made them. What he's doing is far worse than crafting fine schumps.
by Steckel Me Elmo on Nov 23, 2010 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with SME. Last night just proved what we already knew.
The Artist Formerly Known as CP2Devil.
Links guy at Five For Howling.
I was going to say the same thing.
“Screw the # of goals/wins in the regular season” is a mantra shared by players and fans
But a lot of us didn’t like the way the Caps played throughout the regular season last year despite the win count, and we’re watching for improved maturity, discipline, consistency as indicators for a better playoff performance.
5-0 losses are aberrations, but they are opportunities for talking points as much for us as for the coaching staff.
Talent wins games, but teamwork and intelligence wins championships. - Michael Jordan
it’s not the losses, exactly. It’s the 5-0 blowouts where the Caps look utterly discombobulated against inferior teams that are driving me crazy.
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
Further to that, my thinking when watching the Caps is the opposite of that which is usually used regarding what’s important in a game (“They don’t ask how, they ask how many.”) Right now, getting to the playoffs isn’t exactly a worry for me. So I’m looking at how they win and lose; and I have not liked what I’ve been seeing from the Caps this season, in either scenario.
The guy is Peter Schumpmaker. Lord knows what a schump is, but you can bet your bippy his ancestors made them. What he's doing is far worse than crafting fine schumps.
by Steckel Me Elmo on Nov 23, 2010 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Sorry, Link, not buying it. We’ve seen this movie before. Too many floaters when there are winnable games. Too many guys shooting from the perimeter. Too many defensemen getting caught up ice or missing their guy in front of the net. This isn’t a coaching problem, this is a performance problem. Swapping coaches solves none of this. The guys in the room have to solve this, starting with the guys wearing letters on their sweaters. This team should have been playing from day one like they were going to take out their frustration from last spring on the rest of the league. Instead, we’re seeing the same performances out of the same guys. They haven’t changed their game. They don’t play 60 minutes. They haven’t made the adjustments that winners make.
by NHL Observer on Nov 23, 2010 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
I still think it’s just a speed bump. But it is good that the Caps are getting this out of their system now. As a Pens fan, I wanted the Caps to do exactly what they did last year: cruise through the regular season, developing bad habits along the way that went unnoticed due to the fact that they were dominating. I fully expect this stretch to be a wake-up call, which is bad news bears for me.
Even with this little bad stretch, the Caps are 1 deadline deal away from a Cup.
In my opinion, if anything holds the Caps back from advancing further in the playoffs this year, it will be Boudreau’s strategies, not the personnel.
by Link_Gaetz on Nov 23, 2010 5:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Maybe I just don’t see what you guys see because the Pens have had multiple stretches like this in every season since the lockout.
But I guess since Caps fans have never experienced the winning of the Stanley Cup, any valleys hit seem so much deeper. And there’s a greater sense of fatalism.
Penguin fans can be more relaxed about their team and are less likely to sweat out a bad stretch and feel greater optimism about the future.
Rocking the Red for the Caps since 1975. Rocking the Red on additional fronts as well.
Exactly. There is more a sense of urgency and desperation for Caps fans because they’ve never been to the Promised Land as Pens fans have been. Remaining optimistic is a lot easier when you have a championship template to build on. After 40 years of wandering in the desert—has it really been that long?—Caps fans are weary of the trek, and therefore see the valleys of 5-0 blowouts with more hand-wringing fatalism than Pens fans would in the same situation.
Ovi’s never been about changing his game, quite the opposite. And he’s said so many times: “I’m not going to change how I play”, “I have to play my game” . Except of course when the words easily fell out of his mouth recently when demoted" “we have to change something”.
For better or for worse the ‘C’ on his chest to me has stood for Captain Cardio – leading with his heart, his passion. If he’s not doing that then I don’t think he’s doing his job. I don’t have much expectation for him to grow in other areas unfortunately, so I guess plenty of up arrow space available in that regard from me
Talent wins games, but teamwork and intelligence wins championships. - Michael Jordan
I don’t want Ovi to change…from the player he was a year ago. This year, he’s not hitting as much and he’s not creating his own space. Part of what makes him a feared player is that other players concern themselves with whether they will get run over by the Russian Machine. This season, he’s not running anyone over and he’s committing some awful turnovers. He needs to get back to the game he played before the suspensions. He hasn’t looked dominant this year, he’s looked restrained, as if he’s more worried about getting suspended than playing with the passion and strength he’s known for.
by NHL Observer on Nov 23, 2010 5:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s worried about getting suspended.
Rocking the Red for the Caps since 1975. Rocking the Red on additional fronts as well.
Maybe so. But isn’t it the coach’s responsibility to help his star player, any player actually, find his game by pointing out what he’s doing differently? Even superstars need instruction occasionally. I find it hard to believe Boudreau is oblivious to how Ovie’s game has changed, or that he’s satisfied with how he’s playing now. If the problem is a wrist injury, I also find it hard to believe the coach isn’t aware of it, and wonder why he’s playing Ovie so many minutes.
Do you have any data on shooting from the perimeter, or any systematic observations? Because the 5v5 data I’m looking at say that the Caps are shooting from a grand total of 6 inches further from the net than they did last season.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 23, 2010 6:01 PM EST up reply actions
…yeah, but you’re basing that information on a graphical interpretation of where an off-ice official makes a rough estimate of the shooting location with a mouse-click, while watching from a skybox. There isn’t any reliable data about about exact shot location, only general estimates. There has been a general commentary for at least the last 3 seasons that the Caps forwards don’t like to drive to the goal, and the hotter the game gets, the farther they stay away from traffic.
by NHL Observer on Nov 23, 2010 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
I’m using the same informational source year over year, which is here. You can call it unreliable, but it’s unreliable in the same ways year after year. I weighted the shots according to volume and then multiplied the weights by the distance to get an average distance. Using the same source, therefore including the same biases as the prior year, I get the Caps shooting 6 inches further out this season than last.
If you’re going to complain about reliable data, you can’t cite
There has been a general commentary for at least the last 3 seasons that the Caps forwards don’t like to drive to the goal, and the hotter the game gets, the farther they stay away from traffic.
as reliable. There’s no systematic collection of data, there’s not even systematic recording of observations. This is totally and completely post-hoc recollection. Even if it’s right, it’s suspect.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 23, 2010 6:14 PM EST up reply actions
I think part of the reason shot distance is closer is because of the rush. All those Ts you and I have been recording bear that out a bit, I think.
by red army line on Nov 24, 2010 7:34 AM EST up reply actions
Don’t worry, I think most of us are aware that it’s only 3 losses in November (and only 2 bad ones) – I offer up this perspective merely to stave off the panic for those who choose to give in to it. Hence these two parts:
[…] nor is it to say that a run of three games in which they put together two horrific performances and one decent but ultimately losing effort is anywhere near a catastrophe. After all, despite a start that has admittedly been less than stellar they still sit atop the Southeast Division and are one of the top teams in the East.
Because two games is hardly twenty. Because this is hardly adversity compared to where the Caps were this time three years ago.
If anyone needs me, I'll be at Kettler.
Becca
Just saw you quoted on si.com. How long has that been out there?
Life With Spidey -- a blog about sports, travel, work, family and fun.
Representing Caps fandom in the Gateway to the West.
Life With Spidey -- a blog about sports, travel, work, family and fun.
Representing Caps fandom in the Gateway to the West.
hehe Jaspers rink :P
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