Twenty-Nine Starts
by J.P. on Nov 2, 2010 12:00 PM EDT
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Just ten names were called in between those of Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth at the 2006 NHL Entry Draft, and in many ways they're even closer today then they were then, both professionally and statistically. Case in point, once the puck dropped on Saturday night's game in Calgary, Neuvirth had started his 29th NHL regular season game - the same number of starts as Varlamov has. Here's how the two compare over those games:
You'll notice that the wins and losses don't add up to 29 for either man. Neuvirth failed to complete four of his 29 starts (most recently when he left with the flu against Boston, and against Montreal and in back-to-back bad starts in Florida last season); Varlamov has only left one game he started (that a rough outing in Philly at the beginning of last season).
The two have arrived at their relatively similar numbers via different routes - Varlamov seemingly adjusting to the NHL game remarkably quickly (thanks, of course, to those 13 playoff games he had after his first six starts) and then struggling with injuries, and Neuvirth fighting a bit of early inconsistency before responding to a heavier workload and settling in. Here are the two netminders' career-to-date GAA (top) and save percentage (bottom) over the course of their 29 starts:
What we see is that over the last ten starts, these two have been headed in opposite directions.
For Varlamov, start number 19 was a 3-0 shutout in Tampa Bay back on December 7, 2009, after which he missed two months with a wonky groin, followed by the Olympics, an up-and-down end to last season, and renewed injury woes this season so far. So what the graph doesn't show is that Varlamov has started just ten regular season games over the last 329 days, and is 3-3-4/3.22/.887 in those starts. How important is it for Varlamov to solve his injury problems? In the ten games and 39 days leading up to (and including) his December 7, 2009 injury, he was 7-1-2/1.87/.937. The ability is there, obviously, but it's critically important that Varly get - and stay - healthy, so he can find his game.
For Neuvirth, start number 19 was the Montreal game mentioned above, and it was his last NHL start of 2009-10. His last ten NHL starts have come over the past 25 days, and he's 7-3-0/2.15/.926 in those starts.
As the Caps turn the calendar and head into November, Varlamov is apparently close to returning to practice and, presumably, game action soon thereafter. And when he does, expect Bruce Boudreau to split the workload pretty evenly between the two. Unless, of course, the trends each young man has established continue.
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Oooooh
Pretty graphs!
Seriously, good stuff. I’m slightly bummed that Varly is making me look like a moron for championing him during the MVC discussions. Hopefully, he gets it together and provides some competition in net. I’m worried that Neuvy can’t maintain this workload.
And I hear you talk the talk, but I don't see you walk the walk and I still don't believe a thing you say.
Those of us who were championing Neuvirth in the MVC discussions are nodding in approval. These pretty graphs do not account for post season play, of course. Varlamov still holds the edge here, unless you count AHL playoff success, but someone once told me that was the equivalent of the Zimbabwean dollar.
"Do not be afraid to ask for credit, for our way of refusing is very polite."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 2, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
While it’s clearly not worth the same as NHL experience, it’s does count for something. At the least, the endurance needed to play the additional 20+ games (and win 16) at the end of the season furthers his workhorse image.
"I would feed them lefts until I was pretty much tired of doing it." - Alan May, JRR, 10.16.2010
Each of the last two years, including the Calder Cups, Neuvirth has played in 57 games. It would be really nice if Varlamov (or someone) could play in 30+ games.
"It's always good to have vikings."
2010 Calder run by the Bears: 5 games, 4 games, six games, six games = 21 games. Holtby played 1 of those, so 20 games for Michal. There were at least 8 overtime games in that run, and the Bears were only too happy to trail until the third in most all of them.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
Neuvy of course pitched a shutout in Game Six of the Final to put a very emphatic stamp on the end of his minor league career.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
What’s funny is that I’ve already flip-flopped on this. One of my “bold predictions” for 2009-10 was that Theo would be ineffective, Varly would get hurt and that Neuvy would carry the team into the playoffs. Hopefully, I just had it a year off.
And I hear you talk the talk, but I don't see you walk the walk and I still don't believe a thing you say.
I’ve always thought and still do that as far as highest performance and ceilings go Varly is better.
However, however, Neuvi has maintained his high level of performance now for a good chunk of time and importantly without injury. I’m like > < that close to going over to team Neuvi. If Varly can’t come out and play 30 games this season, can’t as in is injured too often, and doesn’t perform when he comes back he’ll be done here.
That I’m pretty sure of, especially with his contract ending this season, Neuvi’s contract already signed, and Holtby in the wings – Varly needs to perform to what is expected and actually play.
Okay now that I’ve spent a lot of time talking about Varly….Neuvi has been awesome this month. Really glad he got his first pro shutout, albeit against the Panthers…err Oilers…err oh yea Carolina (they’re all pretty interchangeable). He may be slanting our defensive numbers favorably, and also his own numbers the other way, because of their combined play. The defense hasn’t been perfect by any means and Neuvi has bailed out a lot of great scoring chances against. But still great news for Neuvi to be rookie of the month, beating out silly names like P.K. Subban and a certain favorite Hero.
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
I’m just playin. I put a similar graph up before the start of the season tracking the exact sv % on a per game bases
http://www.japersrink.com/2010/8/11/1618023/enter-the-consistency
Looks like you did it culmilative
I basically deemed that Neuvy had a little more consitency seeing as the entire high-low scope of his deviation was much more narrow than Jose and Varly, that is, if you toss out the two games he got pulled last season. it’s hard to really judge a goalie’s sv% in a game when he hasn’;t had enough shots to make the sv a little more normal
It was more to show the range of sv%‘s on a game by game basis but you combine that with the culmilative trends and I don’t think there’s any doubt that neuvy
The thing I like about either goalie is they each give the team a great chance of winning and almost an equal chance of stealing the odd game.
I like how the numbers speak to that.
I don’t want Varly to be rush back for the 100th time. He obviously has a serious problem or some sort of muscle imbalance. Let Neuvy\Holtby take the reigns while Varly does strength and conditioning for 4-6 weeks.
Think twice before you speak, and then you may be able to say something more insulting than if you spoke right out at once.
I agree, assuming they actually use Holtby. I’d like to see Neuvy get a break or two, and if this last road trip is any indication of BB’s willingness to trust Holtby, that won’t happy with him as backup.
"Do you see my fist? It was fists like these that built quaint Canadian cities out of the harsh Canadian wilderness, etc. etc."
Not in Seattle anymore.
by SeattleCapsFan on Nov 2, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I meant, “that won’t happen”
"Do you see my fist? It was fists like these that built quaint Canadian cities out of the harsh Canadian wilderness, etc. etc."
Not in Seattle anymore.
by SeattleCapsFan on Nov 2, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah…I think they haven’t used Holtby yet because Neuvy is playing so well and the workload hasn’t been back to backs. If Varly is still out and we have a back to back Holtby will get thrown in. I’m pretty sure Neuvy could play around 65 games if he had to.
Think twice before you speak, and then you may be able to say something more insulting than if you spoke right out at once.
Except that the road swing was a back to back and 3 in 4 including lots of travel.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Exactly. The fact that Holtby was riding the pine in Minn makes me wonder.
"Do you see my fist? It was fists like these that built quaint Canadian cities out of the harsh Canadian wilderness, etc. etc."
Not in Seattle anymore.
by SeattleCapsFan on Nov 2, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Like Bruce could exercise the will-power it’d have taken to bench a guy coming off a shutout for a dude who hasn’t played a minute in the NHL.
As for Calgary, Bruce’s horse had had a day off, is young, and it’s still October – workload issues shouldn’t be a problem. Yet.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Right, and I wasn’t one of the people that said Neuvirth needed to rest. It’s still early enough in the season that you figure he should be relatively fresh. My real concern is that if Neuvirth continues to play this well (which in itself is not a problem) BB won’t have the self-restraint to manage his minutes and keep him fresh.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Know what you mean. I’ll admit to being one of those people recommending that Neuvirth not play all 3 games of the recent road trip and give Holtby one start in there.
Playing Neuvy in back to backs — while it’s something that can work fine occasionally, I don’t recommend using him in all the back to backs or even for 70 games in the regular season.
Similar to the fact that while Ovi and/or Green can play 2 minutes on an individual Power Play, would not recommend doing it all of the time or even most of the time.
Rocking the Red since 1975
That’s why I threw in the Neuvy has been playing well. I forgot to mention the SO as JP did. It’s not cool to sit a goalie after that.
Think twice before you speak, and then you may be able to say something more insulting than if you spoke right out at once.
The shutout is an extra factor to be considered in this particular case. I’m still very skeptical as to whether BB will sit The Truth without a sub-par performance from him first.
"Do you see my fist? It was fists like these that built quaint Canadian cities out of the harsh Canadian wilderness, etc. etc."
Not in Seattle anymore.
by SeattleCapsFan on Nov 2, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not sure he should sit him if he keeps turning in sub-3GA games.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Yeah I agree. Ride it while it lasts. Although, I think we might see Holtby on the 134 or 190 home and aways regardless of Neuvys play.
Think twice before you speak, and then you may be able to say something more insulting than if you spoke right out at once.
Well and this is where I’ll defer to someone who’s actually played hockey (extra points for being a goalie). I’ve always been under the impression that asking a goalie to play 65 games as you suggest above – especially when that goalie is a rookie – is risking burnout/exhaustion.
But if I’m wrong in that, I’ll accept it and embrace the fact that we’ve got what seems to be a kickass rookie backing this team up.
Thoughts?
"Do you see my fist? It was fists like these that built quaint Canadian cities out of the harsh Canadian wilderness, etc. etc."
Not in Seattle anymore.
by SeattleCapsFan on Nov 2, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, the Caps aren’t asking him to play 65 games yet. It’s just a few extra during the early season.
I was just saying that I think he’s capable of that. Regardless of being a rookie or not I think some goalies just have a workhorse mentality and ability that other goalies don’t. See Miller, Brodeur, Kolzig.
If Varly doesn’t get the proper attention to get better I think it’s very likely Neuvy will see upwards of 65 games though.
You never know if a goalie can handle it until they do it though. I don’t think there is a precise baking time.
Think twice before you speak, and then you may be able to say something more insulting than if you spoke right out at once.
Well, the Caps aren’t asking him to play 65 games yet. It’s just a few extra during the early season.
Right. This is where I am on the matter. If he’s appeared in every game a bit further down the road, the eyebrow will start to raise.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
You never know if a goalie can handle it until they do it though. I don’t think there is a precise baking time.
I’d rather not risk finding out this year. The team has enough cap space to acquire a decent C and some depth at D. Throw in an experience backup and we might not be able to do all three without clearing some room.
And I hear you talk the talk, but I don't see you walk the walk and I still don't believe a thing you say.
I think the shutout was probably a good part of the reason that Neuvy did the back to back.
Back last November, Theo had a great game against the Panthers (4-1 win) so Bruce used him the next day in a back to back (also against the Panthers), leaving Varly on the bench at that time. The next day, Theo was not as effective. Luckily, the Caps still won but I was still of the opinion they should have used Varly that day (and of the opinion that Holtby should have had the start on Thursday just to give Neuvy a rest.) But, I’m sure the fact that many of defensemen, including Green and Schultz were out with injuries for the 2nd game of the back to back, didn’t help matters for the Caps in goal prevention.
Rocking the Red since 1975
Good job J.P.
Hypothetical — If Varly comes back and the glass groin breaks again, how soon do the Caps test the trade waters for a backup? Or do you stick with Holtby as the apprentice.?
I poured spot remover on my dog. Now he's gone.
Hypothetical? Really?
Choking since 1985.
by macvechkin on Nov 2, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
I think it would be pretty immediate. Sabourin was supposed to be the guy that could play that role but the team clearly has lost faith in him. Holtby needs to play if he’s going to develop, he can’t be the backup for anything but short stretches.
I note they could have sent Holtby to Hershey to play Sunday’s game with Matty P and Fahey … but didn’t. I think Holtby gets a start in this homestand.
Not against TML, because Michal has earned his rookie of the month standing O, but Holtby just maybe gets the next one.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
Good point about giving Neuvy his ovation, especially with TSN in the building. : )
Next game Friday: Boston. It’s their first game of a back-to-back (they’re headed to St. Louis the next night) so hopefully they’ll save Thomas for Saturday. After two recent losses, I got a feeling he’s in the players’ head.
"I would feed them lefts until I was pretty much tired of doing it." - Alan May, JRR, 10.16.2010
For all the doubters, The Truth will have a .92% +/- .03 by the end of the season guaranteed.
Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death.
Tim Thomas thinks those numbers are extremely weak.
The Artist Formerly Known as CP2Devil.
Links guy at Five For Howling.
Does Tim Thomas think? Or, for that matter, dream of electric sheep?
With Boston’s defense I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if he somehow managed to destroy the SV% record and throw up a .95SV%. Yeah, he’s hotter than the Sun right now but it looks like he’s ready to put together one of the most absurd seasons of all time.
If Chiarelli is deft enough to handle Savard coming back AND Savard is capable of producing at an 80 point level I can’t think of anyone keeping Boston from a Cup. They don’t really have any stars up front, but they have the most complete set of lines in the league and their defense is other worldly with Rask and Thomas behind them.
Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death.
They are a good team, but I’m not sold on them being a Cup winner. I disagree on them having the most complete set of lines in the league. The Flyers have better complete lines than the Bruins do and more scoring punch.
The Artist Formerly Known as CP2Devil.
Links guy at Five For Howling.
We’re going to have to just agree to disagree with the scale obviously tipped on your side due to Philly having embarrassed the Bruins in the postseason.
I think if Savard is back and if he’s able to produce like he was able to pre-concussion (80 points-ish), the advantage is with the Bruins. Those are pretty big ifs considering the cap implications and what they’ll have to move to get everyone back and whether the best years are behind him.
Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death.
I’m not even counting last year’s playoffs because IF the Bruins get healthy the squads are much closer talent wise with the Flyers losses of Gagne and Lapierre and the Bruins getting Horton. That being said I’ll take Giroux over any winger on the Bruins. I just don’t trust any of the Bruins forwards to score consistently in the postseason. On the other hand, I do expect the Flyers guys to.
I’d have no idea what to expect from Savard in the postseason. He’s only played in the playoffs three times and in only one of those postseasons did he make an impact.
The Artist Formerly Known as CP2Devil.
Links guy at Five For Howling.
He had some moments against Buffalo, but so did a lot of other guys you didn’t expect. My personal feelings was that he was rushed back for the postseason, however, and not indicative of his play. However those were about his postseason stats, soo….
I’d still bet on the Bruins as the team of the east besides the Capitals which I’m not too sure is a really over the top homer pick given what they’ll face and how poorly Boudreau performs in the postseason.
Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death.
I liked Philly before the season last year and I like them again this year. Makes me not the least bit happy. The Bruins, and Caps could all come out of the East as well. Habs, Rangers, Thrash, and Pens just have too many depth issues at forward to make me think as of now they could make the Cup Finals. The Bolts still need a goalie. Of course, things could always change with trades.
The Artist Formerly Known as CP2Devil.
Links guy at Five For Howling.
sydtron isn’t as consistent typing as Neuvirth is in goal and missed a 0, +/- .003
Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death.
It was funny, it looked right when I typed it but not checking the math led to it being a virtual lock that he’d end up there. Hell, even Toskla was good for .89
Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death.
What do you want to bet on that? I’ve got a beer that says he finishes outside of that range.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 2, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Minimum 40 games, .917 to .923 regular season
Paypal for a 6 pack of the winner’s choice/10$ limit so we don’t get SBN in trouble for gambling on the outcome?
Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death.
If he does better, I’d gladly buy. I’d gladly buy even with a .916 — that’s basically 2 extra goals let in with 40 games played versus a .917
Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death.
You’re on.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 2, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Last year, for what it’s worth, .917 to .923 were goalies 6-11 (link).
by red army line on Nov 2, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, but I think at some point the floor is going to fall out of his SH SV%. It may be close at the bottom end, but I think I’m +EV on this.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 2, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s batting .963 on the PK versus .918 on the ES. I’d predict it to go more toward .895, near the top end of the pack. I like the Caps PK this year but there’s no way it can continue
Interesting numbers to sift through — the top PK by % last year was StL with 86.8%, Mason had a .899 SHSV% yet the top PKSV% is Miller with .919. Yet neither team was all that great on faceoffs (unscientific since I can’t find one that breaks down against ES/PK faceoff%)
Wish I could have some sort of stat on relative shot strength — right now Neuvirth is doing well on the PK, but the PK itself is limiting any chances against high percentage shots. When the PK slows down, we’ll get to see how Neuvirth handles himself.
My guess is I lose with Neuvirth ending up with a .916447 sv% on the year.
Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death.
and if you throw out Jimmy Howard and Tim Thomas (no goals allowed on the PK), SAON/60-PK of 51.6 and 53.5 respectively:
Neuvirth’s/the Capitals GAON/60-PK of 1.8 and SAON/60-PK of 41.4 is absurd. Capitals’ PK should most definitely keep this up, they’d end up winning the Stanley Cup and some of the lesser known Emmy awards this year.
Varlamov, for reference, has a GAON/60-PK of 15.49 yet a SAON/60-PK of 310
Next game against Boston will be pretty telling for the PK, they were really able to solve the defensive scheme.
Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death.
SAON/60-PK means shots against, which is something the goalie has very, very little control over. Varly’s sample size so far this season is tiny, so don’t put too much stock in those numbers, yet.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Nov 2, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I meant that more as a function of how the PK is helping Neuvirth. He’s definitely white hot, but the PK is ultraviolet hot for limiting shots, especially high percentage shots.
I just threw in the Varley as a reference. He only faced 9 shots versus Neuvi’s 54, making it rather inexact.
Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death.
Aw. The Goalie Guild sez he’s hit the 25-NHL start threshold and is thus no longer a “prospect.”
Welcome to the bigs, MN30!
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
Let the goalie controversy begin--or is it resume?
If the Caps get Varly back soon, it can only be a good thing. Neuvy has been playing superb, but some competition from a teammate who was tabbed the team’s #1 will only make both goalies play harder and be more competitive. Other NHL teams wish they have this sort of “problem” facing the Caps.
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