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About That Improved Penalty Kill...

"Much has been said about the numerical improvements in the penalty kill ... Nearly a quarter of the way through the season, the Capitals have maintained their commitment to sustaining the improved penalty kill[.]" - Capitals Insider, 11/19/10

There's no doubt that a big penalty kill can swing momentum in a game. The Caps' second-period kill of an Alex Ovechkin delay of game penalty on Wednesday night was a perfect example of that. The Sabres had just scored twice to cut what was a 3-0 lead down to the slimmest of margins, and seemed poised to tie the game. But at just the right time, a successful penalty kill put the Caps back in control of the game. Buffalo didn't threaten again until a desperate end-of-the-game surge.

Kudos to the Caps killers for that effort.

But over the past few weeks, the Caps haven't been particularly good shorthanded, contrary to popular belief. In fact, after a perfect 25-for-25 to start the season over a six-game span, the Caps have successfully killed just 42 of 55 shorthanded situations (over 13 games), which is 76.4%... and actually worse than their success rate from a year ago.  They've been perfect on the kill in only three of those 13 games. And the impact of the regressed penalty kill on the team's overall goals against is significant, as the team has given up fewer non-power-play goals per game since the PK streak ended, but has a higher overall GAA.

So will the real Caps penalty kill please stand up... and let us know if it's "problem solved" or just more of the same?

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Ok, so it’s not my imagination that the PK is regressing. While they’re still aggressive, they’re not as aggressive as they were early in the season. Fingers crossed, I suppose.

the look of Laich’s face is like something out of the OTOT thread….derp!

Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground

by RedBirdie on Nov 19, 2010 1:34 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah, Brooks’s facial expression makes me think of Billy Idol.

WITH A REBEL YELLLLLLLLL

"I'm not great at farewells, so, uh... that'll do, pig."

by Steck It Out on Nov 19, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe other teams have figured out a common way to beat it over the last 13 games.

by jaytown99 on Nov 19, 2010 1:46 PM EST reply actions  

Your best penalty killer, I feel, has been a little fatigued, by his own admission, after a hot start. I do not fault the aggressive style, I rather think it creates many more opportunities to clear pucks out than opens doors for the attacking PP.

I’d like to know how many GWG’s the Caps gave up when they were on the PK. I think the winning record points to getting big kills when they need it most.

by S h a g g y on Nov 19, 2010 1:48 PM EST reply actions  

Just scanned through the records of our losses and the only GWG scored against us on the PP this year was by the Wild’s Mikko Koivu.

by discuit on Nov 19, 2010 2:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I think part of it has to do with the sequence of penalty killing, less so than their being inconsistent – although some of it has been less spectacular netminding.

They’ve faced a lot of power plays in pairs and they also had a lot of games in a row where they’ve faced a number of penalty kills but have had very few power plays themselves, which cuts into their offensive zone time and puck control and wears out their PK’ers.

The eagle never lost so much time as when he submitted to learn from the crow.

by Hystricine on Nov 19, 2010 1:49 PM EST reply actions  

Did a little bit of research. Out of the last 14 games (dating back to Oct. 19th against Boston), the Caps have faced 9 teams that have power plays ranked in the top 15 in the NHL.

The Caps are still 11th in PK % though, so I don’t think it’s a cause for concern at the moment. If it’s regressing in, say, February, then I think I’ll be a bit more worried.

"I'm not great at farewells, so, uh... that'll do, pig."

by Steck It Out on Nov 19, 2010 1:53 PM EST reply actions  

The caps currently have the 2nd worst differential in TS to PP at -14 (behind ANA with a whopping -21). Throw it in with the twenty other stats you might use to try and explain what we’ve seen so far. Lately it has to feel like they aren’t getting many calls from the refs, and maybe that affects them. Like so many things, the PK is probably somewhere between who they were in those first six games and who they’ve been since.

by jpbryant on Nov 19, 2010 2:19 PM EST reply actions  

We had that one game with 3 double minors, one of which was scored on. There also was at least one 5 on 3 where we were scored on (and one of our good PKers was in the box; hmmm). I don’t know how many 5 on 3’s there’ve been (and don’t have time to look now).

by Seminrocks on Nov 19, 2010 2:19 PM EST reply actions  

I wonder if time of penalty (i.e. first vs. third period) lately is reducing the PK effectiveness? I have no idea how to measure that but that’s what came to mind a few games back…thoughts?

"Quint?"........"No."

by NJNJ on Nov 19, 2010 2:23 PM EST reply actions  

#needsmoremackan?

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Nov 19, 2010 2:24 PM EST reply actions  

Been waiting for a post like this. I’m hopeful that they will level off in the 85% territory that they currently occupy.

We shall see.

Patron saint of quality footwear.

by fat_daddyo on Nov 19, 2010 2:48 PM EST reply actions  

Even at the current “success” rate, the PK still looks far better than it did last year. You’re not going to stop 85% every single game, there will be highs and lows. Committing to being aggressive is enough that they’ll maintain an effective PK.

Many a night from yonder ivied casement, ere I went to rest,
Did I look on great Orion sloping slowly to the West.

by sydtron on Nov 19, 2010 2:56 PM EST reply actions  

Yes. Plus look at the number of shorties already this season — more than all of last season, IIRC.

The ice will show everything.

by cuqui on Nov 19, 2010 3:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Hmmm, Boyd Gordon is one of our best PKers and he’s missed a bunch of games recently. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Caps’ winning streak with Gordon in the lineup correlates with better PK performance with Gordon on the kill.

by cainoo7x on Nov 19, 2010 3:42 PM EST reply actions  

That was my thought, too – according to Pepper, the Caps are 28 for 35 (80%) on the kill without Gordon. I didn’t have him check that against how they did with him in the lineup, though. That probably would have been smart.

If anyone needs me, I'll be at Kettler.

by Becca H on Nov 19, 2010 3:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Ok, we should be able to figure this out then. The Caps as a whole have given up 13 goals on the PK out of 80 shorthanded opportunities. So when Gordon is out, the Caps gave up 7 goals on 35 opportunities, which means with him in the lineup, they gave up 6 goals on 45 opportunities for a rate of 86.7% of penalties killed, which seems like a fairly significant improvement.

by cainoo7x on Nov 19, 2010 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

then there's the old thumb rule

that the PP and PK % generally add up to 100. Anything over 100 is pretty good. The league leaders in PK (the Kings and Habs tied at 90.1) combined with the PP% add up to 96.8 and 95.0 respectively. The Caps (83.8 + 22.7) add up to 106.5 while the overall leaders Minny and Vancouver are at 114.5 and 113.7. Last year the Caps finished with a total of 104.0 (78.8 + 25.2) second to SJ’s 106. All (literally) back of envelope numbers and maybe a bit off.

Obstreperously Avatarless

by Edanger6 on Nov 19, 2010 3:57 PM EST reply actions  

Oh, and Tampa is at 114.1

Small sample size and all, but those three teams should see a regression soon.

Obstreperously Avatarless

by Edanger6 on Nov 19, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions  

wait, I’ve got the Kings at ~107, and the Habs at ~105

Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground

by RedBirdie on Nov 19, 2010 4:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Does killing off a double minor count as killing off one penalty or two?

by wickedwitch on Nov 19, 2010 7:08 PM EST reply actions  

It counts as 2 penalties.

Rocking the Red for the Caps since 1975. Rocking the Red on additional fronts as well.

by CapsFan75 on Nov 19, 2010 9:26 PM EST up reply actions  

This is off topic for the topic title but it’s about the pictures here. Note: the expressions of Fehr and Johansson (?) with Johansson doing the “ooh” and Fehr doing the “ah”. It reminds me of the photo of Ovi and Semin on the Team Russia bench doing similar expressions.

Rocking the Red for the Caps since 1975. Rocking the Red on additional fronts as well.

by CapsFan75 on Nov 19, 2010 9:28 PM EST reply actions  

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