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All Eyes on Ovechkin and Stamkos

Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

Heading into tonight's Southeast Division showdown between the Washington Capitals and Tampa Bay Lightning, the host Caps sit in a familiar position in the standings - atop the Southeast Division (and, for that matter, the Eastern Conference). The Lightning, on the other hand, are in relatively unfamiliar territory, just four points behind the division leaders (with a game in hand), despite having lost three of their last four games.

It would seem that the Caps aren't likely to repeat the cakewalk that was last season's 38-point Divisional victory, which is probably a good thing - the more this team has to put forth a consistent and honest effort during the regular season, the better-prepared they're likely to be come playoff time. It also means that, as CSN Washington's Corey Masisak  put it, tonight's game "might be the biggest Southeast Division clash since the Capitals defeated the Carolina Hurricanes in the third-to-last game of the 2007-08 season."

And while the game itself promises to be plenty entertaining (two high-powered offenses with strong power plays and even better penalty kills), all eyes will be focused on one of the match-ups within the match-up: Alex Ovechkin versus Steven Stamkos. The two former first-overall picks were first and second in the League in scoring prior to last night, and Stamkos leads the NHL in goals, picking up where he left off last season as the co-Rocket Richard Trophy winner (which, of course, broke Ovechkin's two-year hold on the award).

Make no mistake about it: these are the top two goal-scorers in the world right now. As you might have heard, since February 17, 2009, no one has scored more (regular season) goals than Stamkos, who has lit the lamp 80 times (in 123 games). Ovechkin is second with 73 tallies (in 111 games, which is actually a slightly higher rate). The margin closes a bit if you back the calendar up three days to include four goals AO scored over two games in the Sunshine State, and since that February 14 game was a head-to-head match-up, we'll use that as a starting point to compare what the two have done over the past 21 months or so. Have a look:


GP G A P +/- PPG GWG SOG PCT
Ovechkin 113 77 92 169 44 22 13 618 12.5
Stamkos 123 80 63 143 0 36 8 429 18.6

Clearly Ovechkin has benefited from playing with a better supporting cast than Stamkos has had... but that sure is a gaudy point-pace Ovechkin has been on. And Stamkos's power-play goal totals - which conjure up visions of that wicked one-timer of his - represent most of the 39 extra-man tallies he has scored to lead the NHL in that category since he entered the League.

Star-divide

Speaking of Stamkos entering the League, tonight will be his 176th career game (and perhaps the most meaningful one he's played to date). Here's how his first 175 compare to AO's:


GP G A P +/- PPG PPAGWG SOG PCT
Ovechkin 175 106 107
213 -14 41 53 14 880 12.0
Stamkos 175 87 78 165 -7 39 29 9 534 16.3

If that doesn't make you wax sentimental over early Ovie, I don't know what will. And it will be interesting to see just how long Stamkos can sustain that incredible (nearly historic) shooting percentage.

Finally, since hockey is, after all, a team game, let's take a look at how the two have fared in their head-to-head meetings:


Wins G A P +/- PPG PPA GWG SOG PCT
Ovechkin 10 10 13 23
7
2 8 4 64 15.6
Stamkos 2 7 2 9 -7 4 1 0 44 15.9

The Caps have been a vastly superior team than the Bolts since Stamkos entered the League, and it shows in that first stat column. But that gap is closing. Tonight, we may get a bit of a look at by how much, and you can bet that Alex Ovechkin and Steven Stamkos will be the focal point of the match-up, tonight and for years to come.

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Comments

Display:

Hmm, this Stamkos kids doesn’t look half bad. The Bolts don’t really need em, think he can fix out 2C problem?

Oh, they got a new GM last year? Dammit…

Proud member of the Popsicle Division of the Cupcake Conference.

by Bman21212 on Nov 11, 2010 11:06 AM EST reply actions  

Stamkos: “Like I told the guy on ABC, danger is my business.”

Got my user name back from the dingo...

by alex_k on Nov 11, 2010 11:34 AM EST reply actions  

Ovi’s got hockey haunches

by reesem37 on Nov 11, 2010 11:37 AM EST reply actions  

I expect nothing less than the giant battle scene from BIG TROUBLE IN LITTLE CHINA,

with ovie and stamkos being the two guys with the giant weird ring battle thing going on. I don’t even know how to describe that scene,

by Brainumbc on Nov 11, 2010 11:41 AM EST reply actions  

Dude’s got 80’s hockey hair

"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro"

by Steve-R on Nov 11, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions  

That Dude played Herb Brooks in “Miracle”… really!

Washington Capitals 2009-10 = Quebec Nordiques 1994-95
--- D'ohboy

by MikeL-Pivonka on Nov 11, 2010 2:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Let’s hope Ovie remembered to drink his 6 Demon Bag tonight.

by Potitang on Nov 11, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s been a long time since I’ve actually looked forward to a Southeast divisional matchup! Excited for tonight.

A Capital Wasteland - art & hockey from Washington, D.C.

by Jake Shapiro on Nov 11, 2010 12:01 PM EST reply actions  

Agreed. While the resurgence of TB and the improvement of ATL might not help the Caps in the standings, it’s nice to actually look forward to these matchups instead of dreading them.

And I hear you talk the talk, but I don't see you walk the walk and I still don't believe a thing you say.

by D'ohboy on Nov 11, 2010 12:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Stamkos is a great talent, no doubt, but I’m going to be curious to see how he adjusts when teams really work at taking away that one-timer on the PP and in general. Go back and look at all the open ice Alex had in his first couple of seasons for his shot and then compare it to now. That kind of game planning where the opposition throws two and three guys at him is going to happen to Stamkos on a regular basis. How he adjusts will determine where he stacks up against Ovi.

by b.orr4 on Nov 11, 2010 12:02 PM EST reply actions  

Having MSL feeding him pucks doesn’t hurt, but how much longer is he going to stick around?

"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro"

by Steve-R on Nov 11, 2010 12:11 PM EST up reply actions  

2 or 3 years, easily. He still skates well enough but given that he makes MP85 look like a giant you always have to worry about someone like Pronger ending his career.

Many a night from yonder ivied casement, ere I went to rest,
Did I look on great Orion sloping slowly to the West.

by sydtron on Nov 11, 2010 12:14 PM EST up reply actions  

MSL is built like a brick shithouse and he’s managed to avoid hits by guys like Pronger for years. My concern with a guy like that is if he starts to lose his wheels.

And I hear you talk the talk, but I don't see you walk the walk and I still don't believe a thing you say.

by D'ohboy on Nov 11, 2010 12:20 PM EST up reply actions  

He can’t quite get around the corner and Pronger freight trains him into the glass one too many times, no?

Mind you, I like MSL, so I hope it doesn’t happen.

Patron saint of quality footwear.

by fat_daddyo on Nov 11, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think he’d ever lose his wheels, he’s so effortless when he skates. One of my favorites to watch play because of that. I just think that is how it’s going to happen, a dirty hit ends his career prematurely. He’d play till he is 40 easily.

Many a night from yonder ivied casement, ere I went to rest,
Did I look on great Orion sloping slowly to the West.

by sydtron on Nov 11, 2010 4:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I understand that Ovie has a better supporting case than Stamkos (and most other goal scorers), but is it reasonable to argue that it’s harder to score a lot of goals when surrounded by a better supporting cast? I guess not, as without Backstrom, Semin, et al. teams could focus more squarely on Ovie. And Ovie doesn’t get gipped in the # of shots department. I’m so biased in favor of Ovechkin that I’ll look for anything to support my belief that he is the NHL’s greatest goal scorer, bar none. But that Stamkos is damn good.

I guess I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

by coumbiapike on Nov 11, 2010 12:34 PM EST reply actions  

Has anyone ever done a heat map on Stamkos’ goals? I wonder what the percentage would be in that circle? 80%?And I agree with BB on how to contain him: Don’t take Penalties.

"I would feed them lefts until I was pretty much tired of doing it." - Alan May, JRR, 10.16.2010

by bagace on Nov 11, 2010 12:53 PM EST reply actions  

The Caps are deeper than TBL, but I think Stamkos has had a plenty good supporting cast. Whether at ES or the PP he’s had elite talent around him and as far as individual production that’s all that really matters.

Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman

by Rob Parker on Nov 11, 2010 1:19 PM EST reply actions  

Glad I read to the bottom before replying as I was going to mention this…

Also want to mention since JP compared the first 175 games of both players that IMO it could be argued Stamkos’ supporting cast over his first two seasons is actually stronger than the cast Ovechkin had over his.

by Yoshietree on Nov 11, 2010 1:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed. My “stronger supporting cast” comment referred to the “since Feb. 2009” segment, not the “first 175 games” portion – Stammer clearly has had a better team over his first 175 than AO did (not to mention he hasn’t had Glen Hanlon coaching him).

And to respond to F&B, the “stronger supporting cast” was meant primarily to target the +/- differential and, to a lesser extent, assists. I’d agree that the latter is more influenced by having that elite talent around (which Stamkos has, though he hasn’t had a Mike Green), but the plus/minus difference has a lot to do with depth.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Nov 11, 2010 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Plus/minus also has a lot to do with the fact that he was a PP machine last year and his ES production wasn’t nearly that level.

Mike Green is probably the biggest difference in terms of the PP units.

Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman

by Rob Parker on Nov 11, 2010 4:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed and agreed. Mike Green is also probably the biggest difference in terms of ES units.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Nov 11, 2010 4:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Am I wrong or does Stamkos look like Alzner in that picture with Ovi? Amazing, indistinguishable on and off the ice!

Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...

by dcsportsfan1 on Nov 11, 2010 3:58 PM EST reply actions  

Dude’s one timer is just ridic.

by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Nov 11, 2010 4:48 PM EST reply actions  

Why Does Stamkos wear 91?

Lame number, what, id that the year he was born? Good talent, but is he too cool to wear a normal number? Ever since Yahoo put the Lightening Homer bashing the Caps as news, I have had a bad taste im my mouth about this squad. Come on contraction, this team needs to disappear!!!!

by brettpedigo on Nov 11, 2010 5:42 PM EST reply actions  

Ok.

Was it a problem then also?

by Yoshietree on Nov 11, 2010 10:46 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

No, it wasn't a problem

Ignoring the second name, this is a pretty kick-ass group.

Come on contraction, this team needs to disappear!!!!

How about…no. Their attendance was terrific when they were good. To build a fanbase in an area that doesn’t love hockey you first need a team that’s good for a really long time and then wait as kids grow up. Neither of those has happened yet.

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the most unpredictable team in the NHL.

by red army line on Nov 12, 2010 11:00 AM EST up reply actions  

Stamkos was actually born in 1990. Wonder if he adopted 91 due to Sergei Fedorov, as someone below me pointed out.

Rocking the Red since 1975

by CapsFan75 on Nov 12, 2010 6:01 PM EST up reply actions  

IIRC, Sergei Fedorov wore 91.

Don’t make fun of my obsession over ketchup dispensers ever again! ;) Ted Leonsis

by miseenjeu on Nov 11, 2010 11:22 PM EST reply actions  

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