Pick 'Em: Lines for Laich and Fehr
by David Getz on Oct 8, 2010 2:30 PM EDT
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PrintThe Washington Capitals team that broke camp and is, for the most part, ready to take the ice tonight bears a striking resemblance to last year's squad, at least in the forward ranks. Likely part-timers D.J. King and Matt Hendricks, along with former first round pick Marcus Johansson, are the only additions, and Scott Walker, Eric Belanger, and Brendan Morrison are the only losses, which means no major overhaul and fewer headaches for coaches setting up lines.
As expected, Alex Ovechkin will return to first line duty with Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Knuble. Alexander Semin, naturally, will be the driving force of the second line, which will be centered by Tomas Fleischmann, almost by default. Jason Chimera's a near-prototypical third line player, and Marcus Johansson is a natural fit as the third line center given his age and inexperience. Grinders like Matt Bradley, Boyd Gordon, and David Steckel will provide solid depth, but should only be be considered for use above the fourth line when injury hits. Arguably, the biggest question is where to play Brooks Laich and Eric Fehr.
Laich is expected to start tonight's game skating with Fleischmann and Semin on the second line, which seems to make sense given that he's put together three consecutive 20 goal seasons (Fehr has one, last year) and back-to-back years of more than thirty assists (Fehr's career high is 18), while also displaying more consistency. But the issue isn't as clear-cut as it seems as a casual glance.
For starters, a comparison based on the most basic statistics is limited by the disparity in ice time between the two. By the hockey card stats, Laich comes out a bit ahead:
But when you factor in ice time - and the fact that a large percentage of Laich's production came on the powerplay - Fehr has the upper hand:
Fehr's rate of 1.48 goals per sixty minutes wasn't just better than Laich's, it was downright elite - only Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, and Sidney Crosby scored more often 5-on-5 (Mike Knuble tied with Fehr at 1.48). Even more impressive is that Fehr did it with weak teammates (albeit against weak competition), so it's not unreasonable to think he could produce at an even higher rate playing with someone as talented as Semin.
Of course, offense is only part of the consideration, especially if we're talking about a line with Tomas Fleischmann at center. The defensive numbers, though, also favor Fehr, even if adjusting the Corsi number for quality of teammates and competition gives Laich a leg up in that department:
[Ed. note: +/-ON/60 is goal differential per sixty minutes. Corsi is a measure of shots for versus shots against; essentially a plus-minus rating based on shots. QoC and QoT are Quality of Competition and Quality of Teammates are attempts to quantify whether someone is playing with or against strong or weak players and is used here to adjust the Corsi number and provide some additional context. PDRAW/60 and PTAKE/60 are penalties drawn and taken per sixty minutes of 5-on-5 play. PDO is it is save percentage plus shooting percentage, and generally evens out around 1000 for individuals and teams (being over 1000 is very good). For more on advanced NHL statistics, check out SBN's Behind the Net.]
Time on ice is another important factor. Laich is an important special teams player, an able, if not spectacular, penalty killer, and the team's most productive goal scorer in 5-on-4 situations by goals per minute. Fehr, conversely, is a mediocre powerplay producer and doesn't have the foot speed or agility to be an ideal penalty kill player. Generally a second line player will see about two more minutes of even strength play in a game than a third liner. So why not give Fehr, the more productive even strength player, those additional minutes, and save Laich a bit more energy for special teams situations?
For one thing, moving Fehr to the second line and Laich to the third line almost certainly means moving Laich to the right side and Alex Semin to the left. For Semin, that's not a problem -- he's generally considered a natural left wing, and is equally adept in either position. Laich, on the other hand, has almost exclusively played on the left side when he's been used as a wing in his NHL career. Switching from one wing to the other is easiest positional transition to make in hockey, but doesn't necessarily mean the Capitals are comfortable with Laich on the right side.
Additionally, there's the familiarity factor, both in terms of teammates and role. Laich has spent most of the last two seasons, including the vast majority of 2009-10, on the second line, and Alex Semin, the second line's creative presence, skated more than 40% of his 2009-10 even strength shifts with Laich. Fehr, on the other hand, has never consistently played above the third line and his time with Semin has been virtually nonexistent.
Beyond position and familiarity concerns, there's the question of chemistry and line composition. With Laich on the second line and Fehr on the third, each bring something to the table their linemates do not, Laich providing consistency, hustle, and physicality at a level Semin and Fleischmann do not, and Fehr providing offensive upside that Chimera and Johansson (to our knowledge, at this point at least) don't posses. Adding Fehr to the mix with Semin and Fleischmann runs the risk of taking all the punch out of the second line, while pairing Laich with Chimera on the third is somewhat redundant, and makes the line less of an offensive threat.
Of course, tonight's game is just the first of 82 that will give the Capitals the chance to further evaluate their players and experiment with strategy, so nothing's set in stone. Still, we'd like to ask, what makes more sense to you? Moving forward with lines similar to the ones that brought so much success last year and balancing things out a bit more, or allocating ice time to get each player in more situations where they have been productive in the past?
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I like Fehr on the 2nd line, but I’m a little hesitant over moving Laich from one side to the other.
Also, are we really talking about promoting Fehr from 12 minutes of 3rd line play per night, to full-time 2nd line duty? Is Bruce Boudreau still the coach?
You had me at no problem.
That would be a decent (but one wouldn’t think unmanageable) bump in ice time – Fehr got 10:40 of ES TOI/G last year, Laich got 13:13.
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I like the balance of Fehr on the 3rd line but could see a situation where our 3rd line (as it exists now) is better than our 2nd line by the end of the year which would beg for a Fehr-Johansson-Semin 2nd line…
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
Vogs this morning on ESPN 980 also mentioned the potential for Johansson to move to the 2C position later in the season if he progresses as they think he will. Then he mentioned moving a forward . . . hmmm.
I voted for Fehr on the 2nd, but see that more as a potentiality down the stretch. I would probably start with Laich on the 2nd, but if Fehr continues where he left off last season, I would like to see the Caps try him up with Semin. Further on, and if his play warrants it, I’d like to see Johansson tried as C on the 2nd. I still think Flash ultimately is the superfluous piece. Maybe MP comes back.
Personally, I feel that Laich is on that second line as much to keep Semin and Flash moving north-south as he is to score goals. I understand that Fehr probably brings a bigger offensive-upside, but he hardly goes to the net while Laich is drawn to it like a fat man to a buffet line.
while Laich is drawn to it like a fat man to a buffet line.
I wish that were so, I’d be much happier with him as a player, both at ES and on the PP, if he did that.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 8, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Yeah, his reputation for going to the net is more based on his quotes than his actual play.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
by Rob Parker on Oct 8, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Lets hope his linemates,and his own game, allow Laich time to get to the net before taking a shot.
A danger to myself and others on the ice
by can't skate on Oct 8, 2010 3:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I agree that Laich brings a consistency of effort to the 2nd line that Fehr might not (if the past is any indication). Semin-Fleischmann-Fehr has the potential to disappear for stretches, I’d fear.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Laich or Fehr on the second line?
Yes. Alex Semin gon’ do what Alex Semin gon’ do. Put Laich at C, Fehr on the right wing and Semin on the left. Drop Flash to the 3rd line on Johansson’s wing, opposite Chimera. Switch to power-versus-power (love the idea, RAL) and match that third line up for the easy minutes and sheltered starts, protecting both Flash and MarJo while he adjusts to real, live NHL players.
So you’d see:
8/19/22
28/21/16
14/90/25
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 8, 2010 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
KHtaD thinkin’ outside the box…
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I don’t think Laich is a C. Certainly not for anything more than stop-gap duty. If the Caps aren’t comfortable that Laich can go from LW to RW then how can they possibly think he can play C?
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
As opposed to Flash playing 2C?
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 8, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Flash at least has the skating and puck skills to be an NHL 2C. It’s the rest of the game I don’t like. I don’t think Laich skates well enough or handles the puck well enough to play C.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
by Rob Parker on Oct 8, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I can think of a few reasons why Laich isn’t much of a fit as a 2C, but skating never really struck me as one of them.
I’ve always thought of Laich as a good C-in-name-only for that 2nd line. Take the faceoff, then let Semin deal with the playmaking while he deals with the boards or the net presence. But that might not work well in this system.
I think there’s more than one way to skin a cat and really, Alex Semin is going to be the one carrying the puck up the ice most of the time, right?
Come down to it, I’d rather suffer through Laich in the O-Zone than Flash in the D-Zone.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 8, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
But is Laich really that good in the D zone? If he was a huge upgrade maybe I could live with it, but I think his D is generally overrated.
There’s more than one way to skin a cat, but Semin likes to look for the stretch pass (which I wish they would abandon). I guess that might be a point in favor of Laich because he wouldn’t be in control of the puck as much, but I prefer to see the C carry the puck through the neutral zone. I think the top line is most effective when Nicky takes charge through the neutral zone, and I loved watching Mackan take control of the puck in his D zone and then fly through the neutral zone to set up offensive possession.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
It’s not a question of whether Laich is that good in the D zone, but rather is Fleischmann that bad in the D zone, in my mind. I absolutely hate seeing him trying to cover people or try to win a battle on the boards. I know C relieves him of some of the board-work, but I think Laich can play acceptable defense, even if he never ventures into better territory than that.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 8, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d love to see him try to cover people or win a battle!
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
by Rob Parker on Oct 8, 2010 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
FWIW, my Laich WOWY says Laich was 52.4% Corsi without Flash. That’s pretty decent (his most frequent linemates were Semin-Morrison and Fehr-Morrison, though, some guys who can control the puck).
I’d like to judge Laich without Flash, for once.
by red army line on Oct 8, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn’t this inconsistent?
while Laich is drawn to it like a fat man to a buffet line.I wish that were so, I’d be much happier with him as a player, both at ES and on the PP, if he did that.
vs
Put Laich at C
How’s he going to crash the net if he has to hang back and cover the C’s defensive responsibilities? Or are you just conceding that he really doesn’t go to the net so there’s no sense keeping him at wing and asking him to do that?
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Oct 8, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think it is, since Laich is currently, and is likely to remain, a winger. One scenario represents the future as I see as most likely, the other scenario the scenario I would like most.
It’s not impossible to crash the net and play below the goal line as a center; Crosby comes quickly to mind. Laich is very clearly not in Crosby’s class, but the playstyle can be played effectively. I’m not sure if Brooks can do it, but I’d love to see him try.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 8, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough. This team doesn’t really have the centers for it, but I suspect Boudreau would adjust his system to his personnel if he ever got a center like that.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Oct 8, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Since Laich is up for FA after this year I would be more interested in keeping his points down to try and resign him at a more reasonable cost. Considering that both Fehr and Laich are somewhat interchangeable.
On the other hand, artificially limiting his opportunities might not sit so well with him, either. Double edged sword.
His salary with this team is going to be pretty much capped because of the big guns. Let him get as big a role as he earns and put it on him to take a discount if he wants to stay, if that’s what it comes to.
PP Production
I’d like to note that Laich gets a lot of time on the first unit and Fehr spends most of his time on the second. Big difference in the quality of the other forwards, y’know?
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 8, 2010 2:47 PM EDT reply actions
There’s a 2nd unit PP?
A very misguided piece on Huffington Post recently called 30 Rock the most racist show on television thanks to Tracy Morgan’s wild, manic, madcap performance. Tonight illustrated why whoever wrote that piece is full of shit and should be punched in the face until he has a more nuanced grasp on comedy.
by Bald Pollack on Oct 8, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I voted for Laich on the second line mostly because of his track record. I love having Fehr on the Caps but like Brooks Laich in 2008, he’s a guy with one 20 goal season. If he does what Brooks has done (in that he matched or bettered his goal total) each of the next 2 years, then I don’t see how Fehr doesn’t get to the second line.
Additionally, in 2 years, Knuble will likely be retired, and if that’s the case. maybe Fehr moves up and takes that spot on the top line, especially if he continues to progress as he has?
Washington Capitals 2009-10 = Quebec Nordiques 1994-95
--- D'ohboy
Funny — I voted for Laich on the third line mostly because of his track record on the second. His ES stats alongside Semin aren’t that good. I’d like to see the team try something else.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Oct 8, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I just have a feeling that either Laich or Fehr might be gone before or at the trade deadline. Venture to guess which one?
Everything sounds smarter in Tikkanesse....
The defensive numbers, though, also favor Fehr, even if adjusting the Corsi number for quality of teammates and competition gives Laich a leg up in that department:
This refers to the Corsi Rel stats, right? I’m fairly sure Corsi Rel QoC is QoC based on Corsi Rel, not Corsi-relative-to-QoC.
The way I see it is this:
Semin: 2nd line, puck possession forward (PPF)
Laich: not a PPF (neither I don’t think is Mike Knuble or Tomas Holmstrom, to be fair). Laich is effective with other puck possession forwards.
Fleischmann: has the skillset to be a PPF, but for a variety of well-documented reasons simply isn’t at a good enough level for the 2nd line.
Fehr: Good PPF with questions about consistency given larger TOI
Chimera: see Laich
Johansson: may or may not be a PPF, but considering how young players tend to acclimate, it would be best to keep him on the third line.
Going by the WOWYs I did over the summer, it seems to me the Caps’ second and third lines work best with two PPFs (guys like AO and Sid can make a line work with just one, but lesser guys seem to need two, or their lines become potential liabilities against stronger competition). Players like Knuble and Laich are great fits next to two such players, but without those kinds of players they look bad.
Here we have two or three PPFs for two lines—one short of the ideal four. The 2nd line gets more TOI, so maybe it makes sense to go with Semin-Flash-Fehr on the 2nd line and Laich-MarJo-Chimera on the 3rd, but I’m scared that third line could turn out to be a big liability. Instead of a potentially better 2nd and worse 3rd line, might as well just keep the lines the way they are. Fehr on MarJo’s line will take a lot of the PPF responsibility off of MarJo, and Semin-Flash-Laich is still almost a break-even Corsi line against tough Corsi Rel QoC.
A lot of that was hypothetical, by the way, so I’m pretty open to counterarguments. I’m sure I missed some key points.
What Knee high said above—Semin-Laich-Fehr on the 2nd line, Flash-MarJo-Chimera—seems best to me in a vacuum, but I’m not sure how wary Boudreau would be of line matchups even if he has a potentially disastrous line in that 3rd (sorry, Mythical Beast and MJ90 fans). He’d need to protect that line, and I haven’t seen much to suggest he would. At least with the current configuration all the lines seem to be able to hold their own…kind of.
I tell you, though, a Chimera-MarJo-Laich/Flash line would be pretty comical to watch. So much speed there, and not exactly terrific hands for finishing.
by red army line on Oct 8, 2010 3:30 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Ferh for 2
Laich is very overrated in ES play.
Fehr, +/—ON/60= 1.73
Laich +/—ON/60 = 1.09
Some worry about Fehr on the 2nd line being streaky, but Laich is streaky himself.
If Laich can’t switch sides well, would it be possible for Chimera to?
Proud member of the Popsicle Division of the Cupcake Conference.
Lot of ifs that go with moving Fehr to 2nd line.
Can he keep up with the time?
Does he play well with Semin consistently?
What does he add to two “Flashy” non-defensive players one the same line?
I think for the most part his production would dip slightly at the beginning of the year and steadily fall throughout. Why? Because Laich is considered a top 6 forward. In team scouting and strategy that means a lot of different things. Playing more defensive lines against a scoring line for one, something the 3rd line doesn’t have to deal with toooooo often. I say he production would slip slightly at the begining of the season because its bound to happen anyway, but would stay higher than normal because he isn’t as well scouted for. Similiar to a new goalie teams don’t know his tendencies with his partners and what happens on ice. As the year progresses Fehr’s production would fall.
Personally though I’d prefer Laich to center again with Fehr and Semin on his wings. He’s a capable center and while the criticisms of such are currently his “crease-crashing” would be as effective having Fehr who does could overall be a boon. That and it relegates flash to 3rd line to play with Mackan who could easily cover for Tomas’ defensive errs.
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
Rec’d because I was at the game from which the pic was used, and that was some good shiz.
A very misguided piece on Huffington Post recently called 30 Rock the most racist show on television thanks to Tracy Morgan’s wild, manic, madcap performance. Tonight illustrated why whoever wrote that piece is full of shit and should be punched in the face until he has a more nuanced grasp on comedy.
The reason I voted to keep the lines as they are is because you would have to move semin to LW and Laich to RW. I don’t understand why people keep saying Semin is a natural LW when he shoots right and prefers playing on the RW. To play LW he would be playing his offwing. While I know Ovie does that Semin has indicated he prefers playing RW. As for Laich as you mentioned he has played mostly LW and I do not think he would do well on RW nor at center. In short Laich is a good fit on the 2nd line. I am intrigued by the idea of moving Johansson up to 2nd line and I can see that happening later in the year.
Proud to be a Caps fan. Its a Great Day for Hockey.
Has Semin actually indicated he prefers RW? He was brought up in the org. as a LW, and his shot is more effective on the LW.
But I agree, our RW depth doesn’t lend itself to having Semin move over so easily. I’d almost suggest the best way to move Fehr up would be to start playing Semin on the first line a bit more (I know, I know) and move Knuble to third line duty. But then Knuble’s play probably wouldn’t warrant that yet, since the first line chemistry is so good. It may be Fehr’s best bet as long as Semin is here though.
Lines will eventually become
8-19-22
28-21-16
25-14/90-26
17-39-10
Not a prediction. Just future fact.
Also – due to his man-love for Flash, it will take Boudreau at least 9-10 games before he remembers why the Flash-at-Center experiment failed and for #14 to be demoted to 3rd-line and Makhan to be shipped off to Hershey before he burns a year of majors on his 2-way contract.
At that time, I will be starting a “Bring back MP and trade Flash” rally. And by rally I mean I’ll send a few e-mails and call it a day.
"Baseball was my first love... hockey is a sultry temptress and stole my heart." - Corey Masisak
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