2010-11 Washington Capitals Season Preview
by Becca H on Oct 4, 2010 1:30 PM EDT
Email
Print
With the regular season drawing ever closer and the pain of last year's abrupt ending (hopefully) fading further in the rearview mirror, it's time to look ahead at the 2010-2011 Washington Capitals - what's good, what's bad and what's to come for this team determined to "stay angry"...
2009-10 Season Recap
The Capitals' 2009-10 campaign is probably best described by the famous words of Charles Dickens: "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times." And then some.
From October 1 to April 11, the Caps were among the best teams - if not the best team - in the National Hockey League, racking up points and wins at an astounding pace. Despite a few bumps, bruises, penalty killing woes and suspensions along the way it was nothing short of a brilliant regular season.
The Caps finished first overall in both the Southeast Division and the Eastern Conference, winning the former by a hefty 38-point margin and the latter by an equally impressive 18 points. They set a franchise record by winning fourteen straight games, kicked off just after trading away one captain and anointing a new one in Alex Ovechkin. They scored more goals (318) than any other team in the NHL, had the League's most effective power play at just over 25%, saw seven different players crack the 20-goal plateau (and Mike Green missed by a whisker with 19), got solid goaltending from Jose Theodore (whose last regulation loss of the season came in mid-January), and went on to win the franchise's first Presidents' Trophy.
But if they were flying high as the season drew to a close, they were quickly brought back to earth as the playoffs rolled around. After a rocky start to their first-round series against Montreal it seemed they would do what everyone expected - dispose of the Canadiens quickly and easily; but a failure to adjust to Montreal's defensive stance, playing what GM George McPhee described as "the worst 10 minutes we played all year" at the beginning of a potential series-clinching Game 5 at home, an even more astonishing failure to cash in on the power play (going 1-for-33 in the series) and a superhuman effort by Montreal's Jaroslav Halak in net led to an absolute collapse, a blown 3-1 series lead...and a trip to the golf course before April was even over.
Make the jump for roster changes, strengths, weaknesses, and our predictions...
Who's In
- D.J. King, RW - The Caps were left with a significant void in the enforcer department after Donald Brashear's departure in the summer of '09. And while the stereotypical enforcer doesn't always seem necessary to the Caps' style of play, the lack of one usually meant that middleweight Matt Bradley was charged with taking on heavyweights and the team's stars were left largely unprotected. The acquisition of King changes that, and keeps the Caps from being outpaced by Eastern Conference foes who have added "big brother" types during the summer.
- Matt Hendricks, C - A last-minute invitee to training camp this year, Hendricks earned himself a contract and has stayed in the mix for a roster spot largely in part to his offensive output, his grit and his willingness to send a message. If he doesn't crack the lineup, Hendricks at least provides the Caps with a reliable call-up waiting in Hershey.
- Dany Sabourin, G - He'll likely spend most, if not all, of the season sharing time with Braden Holtby in Hershey, but bringing in Sabourin gives the Caps another decent veteran presence behind a young goalie for the Bears - a system that has worked fairly well in the past few years.
- Marcus Johansson, C - The team's 2009 first round draft pick signed an entry-level contract with the Caps this summer (just as another Swede was signing a significantly larger deal) and has been projected by none other than George McPhee himself as a guy who could conceivably make the team out of camp this year. The slick Swede doesn't have the same ceiling as his countryman Backstrom, but his playmaking skills and physicality have impressed thus far and he could be a legitimate option on the third line this year.
Who's Out
- Jose Theodore, G - The veteran goaltender was brought in two summers ago to serve as a bridge between the old guard and the young goalies in the system. With Neuvirth and Varlamov seemingly both ready to make the jump to the NHL full time, Theodore's purpose was fulfilled and his days with the Caps drew to a close over the summer. He had some good runs, some bad ones and an incredible stretch to finish out his regular season tenure with the Caps - and above all else was a professional through and through. Best of luck in Minnesota, Theo.
- Brendan Morrison, C - Acquired last summer to fill the gaping hole at second-line center, Morrison's career as a Cap started out great, fizzled out by December and ended with him occasionally being a healthy scratch during the playoffs. The Caps cut ties with the center this summer (as did the Canucks more recently) and he's currently still looking for work. We'll always have this little doozy, though...
- Eric Belanger, C - The Caps traded for Belanger at the deadline to once again take a crack at filling the second-line center role (and perhaps boost the penalty killing). The result? Not great...oh, and Eric, please find a new agent.
- Joe Corvo, D - After re-signing with Carolina over the summer, Corvo said "[r]eally, the whole Washington situation was such a short period of time where it almost feels like I was never there..." Um, ditto, Joe.
- Milan Jurcina, D - Juice's 2008-09 season started and ended in Washington, with a brief detour to Columbus in between that brought Jason Chimera to the Caps. His second tour of duty with the team, such as it was, saw him on the shelf after surgery and as a result ended up costing the team nothing. If he's healthy, that million-dollar salary the Islanders gave him during the summer could end up being something of a bargain - and a potential question mark for Caps fans.
- Shaone Morrisonn, D - Morrisonn was one of the longer-tenured Caps, arriving in DC during the 2003-04 fire sale before heading to Buffalo via free agency in August. He was a quiet, fairly consistent presence on the blue line but had shown signs of pricing himself out of Washington long before hitting the open market and was probably made expendable with the continued evolution of Karl Alzner.
- Scott Walker, RW - Like Corvo and Belanger, Walker's time with the Caps was extremely limited - but of the three he probably earned himself the most fans, largely for his demeanor on and off the ice. During his nine regular season games he scored two goals (both in the same game, his first as a Cap) and added an assist as well as a fair amount of pint-sized grit, but was benched for all but the final game of the playoffs.
- Michael Nylander, C - Yes, yes, we know he's been "gone" for awhile now...but now he's really gone! Er, sort of.
Three Strengths
- Power play - With the personnel relatively unchanged (and perhaps even enhanced a bit on the blue line) the Caps should once again be among the top teams with the extra man. Whether or not they can once again crack 25% effectiveness remains to be seen, but with the Young Guns at the helm anything is possible.
- Offense - Once again, whenever the Young Guns are involved (and some extra guys as well) the goals are usually going to come. For all the critiques leveled against the Caps in the past year or two, their ability to score and score big has never been in question. Whether it's shellacking a team from the start or scoring in clumps late to erase a deficit, this team knows how to put up goals. Seven guys scored at least twenty goals last year; Mike Green was just a goal away from making it eight. And while it's not a guarantee that all of them repeat the task, having five or six 20+ goal-scorers is still something to boast about.
- Chemistry - Whether you're talking about the synergy between Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin, the palpable "click" that occurs when the power play unit steps on the ice or the fact that so many of these guys have, for all intents and purposes, grown up together, chemistry is one of the main strengths of this team and one that so many teams desire. That the Caps have it in spades, and on so many levels, could be a key factor as they continue to take steps forward.
Three Weaknesses
- Penalty kill - It was abysmal for most of last season, languishing in the bottom third of the League despite the fact that the Caps were fairly decent at staying out of the box. Personnel? Systems? A combination of both? Whatever it was, the coaching staff has vowed to improve it this year...we'll see.
- Depth at center - No one questions Nicklas Backstrom's studliness on the top line, but beyond the young Swede is a tremendous drop-off in talent and a lingering question mark on the second line. For now the job is Tomas Fleischmann's to lose, and the Caps do have a ton of almost-ready guys in the system, but unless Fleischmann really clicks or one of the youngsters like Mathieu Perreault or Marcus Johansson ups his game, the Caps may need to go outside the organization to shore up the middle.
- Youth on defense and in net - For a few years now a lot of the criticisms of the Capitals have focused on the defense and the goaltending - sometimes fair, sometimes not, but always there nonetheless. The infusion of youth at both positions this year won't do anything to silence those critics, with as-yet unproven guys like Carlson, Alzner, Neuvirth and Varlamov looking to make their mark in the NHL. How far the Caps go this year, both in the regular season and beyond, will hinge largely on the ability of those four to do just that.
Predictions
So how does it all end? Here are our quick and dirty predictions of when and where the Caps finish out their season:
Pepper: Caps should still easily take an admittedly much-improved Southeast Division, and win the Eastern Conference (though likely by not nearly as great a margin as last season). They'll win two rounds of the playoffs but I'm not convinced that the current roster can earn itself a Stanley Cup Finals berth.
J.P.: It's so hard to make a prediction in October about how this team will look in April, but I'll say they win two rounds and bow out in the Conference Finals.
David: First in the SE, second in the conference, out in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Becca: The Caps will make it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals...and I'll leave it at that.
100 comments
|
4 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
If I was taking the temperature of the Rink, blasphemy might be the reading, including this guy.
A very misguided piece on Huffington Post recently called 30 Rock the most racist show on television thanks to Tracy Morgan’s wild, manic, madcap performance. Tonight illustrated why whoever wrote that piece is full of shit and should be punched in the face until he has a more nuanced grasp on comedy.
by Bald Pollack on Oct 4, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Here’s the big Q though. If the caps get knocked out in the conference finals, will the season be considered a success or failture?
Will Bruce be on the chopping block if this happens?
Predictions by every caps fan.....
1. This year I’ll do a better job tempering expectations.
2. STANLEY CUP ALL THE WAY 2011!!!!!
I hate to sound like all the MSM critics, but I’m just not sold on this year’s team. So much so that I think they’re going to take a sizeable step back from President’s Cup to maybe third or even fourth or fifth in the Conference (yes, that would mean not winning the division). I just can’t predict a top finish for a team with so much youth at so many critical positions. As for the playoffs, fuggedaboutit. No way I’m making a prediction there.
I’d almost prefer to see them enter the playoffs without the overwhelming pressure of expectations that comes with a dominant regular season.
Almost.
You had me at no problem.
I just can’t predict a top finish for a team with so much youth at so many critical positions.
I take issue with this statement because it’s not taking into account the players that the youth are replacing.
Neuvy and Varlamov are replacing Theodore, who was so underwhelming that he was replaced by a “green” goalie two years running in the playoffs.
Alzner and Carlson are replacing Morrisonn and Jurcina. While they may be young, that’s a pretty obvious upgrade in talent. Morissonn was arguably the Caps’ worst defenseman last year. Jurcina never lived up to his physical tools.
Johansson is replacing either BMo or Belanger, depending on how you look at it. This is the one place where the Caps might be taking a small hit, since his talent advantage will be attenuated by his lack of NA pro experience.
On the whole, however, the Caps come out the better in the “youth for experience” trades.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
by D'ohboy on Oct 4, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I really have trouble with a supposed Cup contender trotting out a pu pu platter of Flash, MJ, and MP down the middle behind Nicky. I love Mackan and his potential but worry even third line duty is a stretch at this stage. I love Matty but question how effective he can be over a full season. It’s just a lot to expect those two to pick up the slack, and to pin a season’s hopes on it is a huge roll of the dice.
I really have trouble with a supposed Cup contender trotting out a pu pu platter of Flash, MJ, and MP down the middle behind Nicky.
Is this “pu pu platter” any worse than what we had last year for most of the regular season? No. BMo had his moments, but after December was a shadow of his former self. If healthy, Flash will put up better boxcar numbers.
If it proves inadequate, do you think GMGM will hesitate to add another center? Again, no. The Caps have assets to move and they’re certainly in their window – and they know it.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
It shouldn’t be worse, but I’d certainly like it to get better. I don’t know that this is a tangible step in that direction. It’s an indication that they’d like to go in that direction, but is this really the answer for this team, this year?
I hope GMGM will make a move if it’s not working. He seems content to pat himself on the back every time he doesn’t take on a long-term contract. I’m all for the way they have built this thing and I’m glad they have this pool of assets to draw from, but he can’t keep the powder dry forever.
Long-term contracts have nothing to do with it. There are some pretty decent names on this list who’ll likely be available when the time comes.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
I won’t disagree for a moment that talent-wise, the youth coming in is superior to the veterans they’re replacing. That’s not my concern at all. What bothers me is that I’ve seen too many young phenoms in all sports take a year or two longer than expected to develop into the stars everyone thought they would become. You never know how a talented youngster is going to perform in the big leagues until he’s actually done it. If just one out of the group of Alzner, Carlson, Neuvirth, Varlamov, Johannson and Perrault stubs their toe in the first year that’s not a problem. But if three or four don’t play up to expectations, then that is a problem, a big one. If most of the kids live up to expectations, then the Caps will be better than fine. In fact, they could win a Cup. I just haven’t seen enough of them at this level to be totally confident they will.
I’m not saying they won’t stub their toes. Carlson and Alzner in particular will likely have some issues.
That being said, we watched ShaMo and Jurcina go through long stretches of poor play over the last several years, without any of the high performance that we’re likely to get out of the new guys.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
And at some level skill really matters. Can you really say that Juice or Shamo were learning from their mistakes? I don’t think that was the case. I think they just aren’t that good. I expect both of the kids to make mistakes, and be better for it. Then again, I argued the same stuff last year.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
There’s no way the Caps finish outside of the top 3, and very little chance they’re outside of the top 2. The rookies they have are all as good as or better than who they’re replacing, and 4 of them played last season. Varly and Neuvirth have both showed they can handle being NHL goalies, Carlson and Alzner have both shown that they can be effective NHL dmen, it’s only a matter of whether Mackan/MP can fill their slot(s).
The youth isn’t the issue – it’s the lack of good players at other positions, like 2C and 6D – especially 2C. I doubt that Flash can effectively fill that position.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
Right now, I’ll agree with your predictions. But our cap space means GMGM’s trade deadline transactions in a few months will be a huge factor in determining our postseason success.
A Capital Wasteland - art & hockey from Washington, D.C.
by Jake Shapiro on Oct 4, 2010 1:47 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Everyone always forgets about Quintin Laing… sniffle.
by Kewibr on Oct 4, 2010 1:48 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
We will make the playoffs in the last game on a shootout vs the Rangers, and lose in the Stanley Cup Finals……
Yikes, I’m considerably more optimistic about this team.
by sixsevenfiftysix on Oct 4, 2010 2:06 PM EDT reply actions
I would like to see Ovi as the “Worlds Most Interesting Man” saying “Stay thirsty, my friends” as the team motto…
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
by dcsportsfan1 on Oct 4, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nervously estatic?
"HISTORY DOESN’T MATTER!!! .... Who cares if it’s never been done? We aren’t those teams who failed before. We are in control of our own destiny, and we will make it happen our own way.." - A Gordon, June 2010
Can’t really say those predictions are pessimistic. An ECF appearance would demonstrate considerable progress and I’d have to be thrilled with it given our recent playoff history.
Becca falls in line with the “Winter Classic curse,” and the rest of the editors aim to underpromise. Either way, they still have to play the games…
Six Beers Too Many fantasy team: It's Neu-virth Than Usual
"I wake up in the middle night frustrated because we lost out in the first round and I want to see our players hoist the Stanley Cup." -Brooks Laich
Great Preview!
Rec’d to be sure.
That said, I’d like to bicker on one thing. Call me crazy (Ok, everyone say it together: “You’re crazy!”) but I don’t see the youth on the backline and in net as a weakness. I view it as an attempt to address a problem. The biggest issue with the Caps last year was the abysmal PK. Being in the bottom third of the league was bad, and having the worst PK of the 16 playoff teams last year was going to make it difficult. George looked over what he had on the PK last year and pretty much tore it apart, and did it in such a way that if there is a need to make a move to adjust, he can.
By going with youngsters like Alzner, Carlson, Varlamov and Neuvirth the Caps were able to make changes in back that will help and at the same time still have cap space to do something if they need to or want to. There is no guarantee that it will work, but at the same time, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is a sign of insanity. George has a plan, and as always, he’s not sharing with the class.
I think I need to add a rule to my life and that is to never play poker with George McPhee… he sits there, biding his time, and when the big pot is on the table, he’s in there with a royal flush…
As for my predictions. I doubt the Caps will hit 120 points again this season. That was a remarkable accomplishment, and the Caps are the first team that is less than 50 years old to hit that total. It’s only been hit a few times, and even though points are cheaper in today’s NHL, 120 is still a lot.
I can see them losing a few more games… maybe 32, of which they lose 10 in OT, so 50-22-10, which would be a 110 point season and would be the top record in the Eastern conference. There might be a team in the West (San Jose? Detroit? Vancouver?) that could jump to 112 or so to keep the Caps from the Presidents’ Trophy again…not that it matters. Someone here asked why Bettman didn’t present the Presidents’ Trophy to the Caps, and the answer is “Because it’s the President’s Trophy”.
As for the playoffs…I figure the Caps win their division along with the Pens and Sabres (They keep adding young players and they’re a dangerous team). I would look for the Caps in round 1 to oust either the Rangers or perhaps the Lightning, and then move into a round 2 match-up with Philly or Boston. After winning that, the NHL gets what they want, a conference final of Ovechkin vs. Crosby…and this time it’s Ovechkin leading the way as the Caps skate for the Cup for the second time in their history.
As for what happens there, well… this blog ain’t Winging it in Mowtown, is it?
Washington Capitals 2009-10 = Quebec Nordiques 1994-95
--- D'ohboy
by MikeL-Pivonka on Oct 4, 2010 3:31 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I don’t see the youth on the backline and in net as a weakness. I view it as an attempt to address a problem.
I’m actually with you on that – I list it as a weakness because it could be one, not because I think it will be…if that makes any sense. As much as I think the young guys were talent upgrades over who they replaced, there’s always the element of inexperience that can lead to mistakes veterans wouldn’t make. I don’t think it’s going to be as much of a problem as some do, but it’s definitely a wild card going into this season.
For that matter the PK might be better, the power play worse, the offense might suffer, the centers might step up…you get the idea ;)
If anyone needs me, I'll be at Kettler.
Thanks to the Rink Rat Ticket Exchange and the generosity of Viewers Like You, I got to attend all three preseason games in the VC. I must say that the New Penalty Kill is very promising and a heck of a lot better from a game excitement perspective. And it only makes sense to allow a team that is built to play with the puck to, well, play with the puck.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
Rec for being so delightfully optimistic and very logical about it (as opposed to my very boring cautiously optimistic) as well as for making me feel happy about the upcoming season.
The youth makes me nervous yes—but our kids are really good—much better than the talent we let go. And if this season is a bit of a bumpy ride so be it. The only way for our youth to gain experience is to play at the NHL level. Sure it’s a risk but then again any signing is a risk. These guys are at least “well-trained in the system” Hershey guys plus one very promising Swedish kid who will be mentored by Nicky plus a couple of very confident goalies. A lot of teams would love our problems.
Alright, confess-how many goals are you going to make this year?
"I'm not going to tell!"
Well can you at least guarantee fifty?
"No way. I have a different objective. To win."
by capsyoungguns on Oct 4, 2010 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions
There are going to be nights where the Caps give up 40+ shots on goal due to the relative inexperience on the backline… and I’m ok with that in the regular season. Hopefully these will be limited to the 2010 portion of the schedule.
The nice thing is that George saw a problem, made changes and was able to add cap room in the process. And if we look down the road in a few years, folks will be looking at the Caps roster and be amazed at all the talent that’s there, and in their prime. The trick then is to keep the farm system loaded and keep adding a player every year (ala Colorado from 1995-2004 or Detroit from 1985-present) in order to keep moving forward…
Washington Capitals 2009-10 = Quebec Nordiques 1994-95
--- D'ohboy
by MikeL-Pivonka on Oct 5, 2010 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
There are going to be nights where the Caps give up 40+ shots on goal
I actually disagree – I think the Caps will give up many fewer shots against now. Alzner’s Corsi was horrendous last year, but it was decent the year before. I’m going to chalk up his poor showing in 09-10 to playing with two of the other guys at the bottom of the Corsi rating – TSlo and Erskine. Carlson’s Corsi was decent, but given his skillset, there’s no reason to imagine that it won’t be good.
Alzner and Carlson will be replacing ShaMo and Juice, neither of whom were exactly great at denying or creating shots. Their inability to move the puck resulted in the Caps getting pinned in their own end with regularity. Removing that and replacing it with Alzner and Carlson should improve matters a great deal.
There may be times when the Caps face 40+ shots, but it’ll likely be in games where they get a big lead and try to sit on it. If the Caps do start giving up 40+ consistently, it will likely be due to injuries on the blue line that force clearly bad players like Sloan and Erskine into the lineup on a regular basis.
All that optimism aside, I can see Alzner and Carlson giving up a fair amount of goals and great scoring chances when they make bad decisions, like pinching at an inopportune moment, or stepping up in the neutral zone to make a hit at the wrong time. Those mistakes are going to happen, but I’m willing to take those lumps because the upside is so much higher for these guys than it was for Jurcina and ShaMo. Moreover, neither Juice nor ShaMo was immune to their share of boneheaded errors so, while there may be a few more slip-ups with the youngsters, I’m not too worried.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
A quick glance through of AO’s Corsi off-ice:
2007-2008 7.11
2008-2009 6.71
2009-2010 -0.38
Ouch. It’s understandable if a lesser team sees its best player have a negative Corsi off, but for a team that is known for its depth, that’s not good at all. That means that aside from AO-Backstrom-Semin/Knuble, the rest of the team basically only stayed afloat with high shooting% and high on-ice sv%, when the more likely result was probably a single digit plus minus for most of them. That needs to return to at least 2008-2009 levels for me to have any sort of hope that the secondary scoring shows up in the playoffs.
The Caps forwards need to help out on D more to prevent shots and scoring chances against. If that happens, Stanley Cup Finals, methinks, hole at center or not. And I have a weird feeling that, if McPhee makes some moves (which I think he will), the Caps will be much stronger down the middle and at D than before and will beat PIT to go to the SCF. Irrational hunch, that. As the team is currently constituted they’re losing to either PIT or PHI or maybe even BOS, regardless of round.
The problem with this analysis is that it doesn’t seem to coincide with what we actually see – yes, 07-08 DET and 09-10 CHI both had very positive Corsi ratings, 07-08 PIT, 08-09 PIT, and 09-10 PHI did not. Philly especially depended a lot on Coburn and Pronger. Out of the 6 teams that have made the last three SCFs, only two look demonstrably better than the Caps in terms of Corsi, one looks similar, and two look much worse.
Moreover, Corsi ratings don’t take into account shot-blocking, which increases in frequency in the playoffs. The Caps dominated in Corsi against the Habs, but because of shot-blocking and phenomenal goaltending, they lost.
I’m not saying we ought to throw these stats out, but I think this needs a little more empirical study.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
but for a team that is known for its depth, that’s not good at all.
If the Caps are relying so heavily on offense, they should be better, I think. They were so good in 2009-2010 yet looked average in some respects. How can we expect the Caps’ depth to outscore the other team’s depth if they can’t outshoot and outchance it? And if the Capitals can’t ride their depth to victory, all that’s left is superhuman efforts by AO, Backstrom, and one or both goalies. That doesn’t make me particularly confident.
FWIW, 08-09 PIT under Bylsma were brilliant (can’t find the link, but something like 3rd since the lockout behind 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 Detroit). We know 09-10 PHI have a much better D as well, and I’d bet they ramped it up in the playoffs.
Moreover, Corsi ratings don’t take into account shot-blocking, which increases in frequency in the playoffs. The Caps dominated in Corsi against the Habs, but because of shot-blocking and phenomenal goaltending, they lost.
I think you’re drawing from my comment a causation statement which I didn’t make. I don’t think Corsi is the cause—personally I think it was relying too much on scoring off the rush and not adapting to a cycle offense as MTL sat back to take away the rush—but I do think more responsible and backchecking wouldn’t hurt at all.
Also, Corsi ratings do count shot blocks…
The bare bones of it is that the Caps were treading water with roughly 50-50 play without AO on the ice. To me, that’s unsatisfactory. In previous years they were better.
by red army line on Oct 4, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I tend to agree on the secondary scoring concerns. For a team that relies on its offense to such an extent, the second line isn’t particularly dynamic or well-rounded as a unit. I guess that’s to be expected when you’ve put a winger at center out of necessity but the two wingers bear responsibility as well. Chemistry, consistency and determination from the second-line will be one of the things I’ll be watching for most as the season progresses. Each ought to be motivated in their contract years but as a unit it’s a work-in-progress.
I tend to agree on the secondary scoring concerns. For a team that relies on its offense to such an extent, the second line isn’t particularly dynamic or well-rounded as a unit.
You do realize that this is akin to bitching because your Ferrari doesn’t have enough storage space, right?
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
At risk of sounding like a dick, we’re racing this Ferrari against other sports cars, D’ohboy.
by red army line on Oct 4, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Except that we’re not. We’re racing our Ferrari against BMW M5s, Porsche 911s, Toyota Camrys, Ford F-150s and all different types of cars. Each roster reflects a different set of capabilities and priorities. The Caps’ roster prioritizes high-end offense, hence the Ferrari reference. The Nashville Predators, on the other hand, prioritize defense and goaltending – they’d be more like an F-150. The Flyers are like an M5 with faulty brakes: great at everything but they can’t stop (the puck) when they need to. The Islanders are a used Geo Metro.
You guys are saying we have scoring depth issues. If the Caps have “scoring depth” issues, show me a team with better scoring depth. The Blackhawks were considered very deep last year – we had three players score more goals than their leading scorer (Kane at 30) and another player score 29 (Knuble).
Even if you do criticize the Caps for their relative lack of production from the low-end (although Brads at 10G is pretty damn good for a 4th-liner), almost any team that has the top-tier talent that the Caps do will, perforce, have relatively lesser scoring depth at the bottom-end. This is because of two zero-sum games in the modern NHL – there is only so much ice time (PP ice time in particular), and there is only so much cap room to go around. Ovie+Backstrom+Semin+Green = guys like A.Gordon on the 4th line.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Except that we’re not.
What do you call the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Chicago Blackhawks, the Vancouver Canucks, the Detroit Red Wings? My ill-made point was that the Capitals need every advantage they can get, within reason, in order to beat the teams I listed above (and others). They don’t.
We can all agree that the second line not producing has in large part contributed to the Caps’ downfall each of the last two postseasons. I don’t see where the issue is. Big TOI forwards outside of the top line aren’t getting it done in terms of goals at evens. That’s fact.
If the Caps have "scoring depth" issues, show me a team with better scoring depth.
The Blackhawks…in the playoffs. It may be useless to have this discussion, as what I feel I’m doing is trying to explain luck, but it seems to me like the Hawks were getting it done in the regular season the right, sustainable way—the way that can win you games based on domination rather than talent, although they had plenty of talent as well—all season long, and that translated to the playoffs better than this team which relied on talent then tried to switch to domination and failed.
Tom Awad, I think, wrote a post basically saying the Hawks performed within 10 goals of their expected GF and GA numbers based on shot location and volume, and ranked first in expected GF, but the Caps exceeded GF by about 40. Yeah, I think the Hawks had more depth. Too many career shooting years for the Caps (and Canucks) for me to say otherwise.
Even if you do criticize the Caps for their relative lack of production from the low-end
I’m criticizing their Corsi rates. As you pointed out, Flash (with Semin and Laich) was the big offender, but others didn’t do so hot either. Bradley was solid, at least.
there is only so much cap room to go around. Ovie+Backstrom+Semin+Green = guys like A.Gordon on the 4th line.
I really think that’s irrelevant at this stage. Last year, the Caps had plenty of cap room, and this year, they do too. Maybe that hampered their chances of signing Mitchell, who wanted a 2 year deal, but there were definitely good low-line players to be had.
by red army line on Oct 4, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Pens – Great engine (centers), good brakes (defense), flaccid suspension (wings) – old Northstar Caddy.
Blackhawks – have been neutered by the Cap – post-emissions Corvette.
09-10 Hawks – Scoring, defense and timely goaltending – well-balanced like a good 911 Turbo.
Detroit – aging parts, still goes like stink – AC Shelby 427 Cobra.
The Blackhawks…in the playoffs. It may be useless to have this discussion, as what I feel I’m doing is trying to explain luck,
I understand your argument – the Caps overperformed based on shots for/against, whereas the Hawks were about right. On the other hand, who could have predicted the Caps going 1 for infinity on the power play?
this team which relied on talent then tried to switch to domination and failed.
One problem with this argument is that during the regular season, the Caps were frequently out-shot in games where they built huge leads, then “spaced out” for much of the game.
The other, more fundamental problem with your argument is that, from a Corsi perspective, the Caps absolutely OWNED the Habs in the playoffs. The team only had one negative Corsi rating (Steckel). As far as Corsi goes, they should have won that series going away. The Caps averaged the most shots/game in the playoffs and gave up the third-fewest shots per game.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
One problem with this argument is that during the regular season, the Caps were frequently out-shot in games where they built huge leads, then "spaced out" for much of the game.
Hmm. My impression is that there was more catching up involved this year, and what you’re saying was more the trend in 2008-2009.
The other, more fundamental problem with your argument is that, from a Corsi perspective, the Caps absolutely OWNED the Habs in the playoffs. The team only had one negative Corsi rating (Steckel). As far as Corsi goes, they should have won that series going away. The Caps averaged the most shots/game in the playoffs and gave up the third-fewest shots per game.
Corsi wasn’t my explanation. Trying to score in a different way was. I remember Kewibr (Kevin of JtG) illustrated that AO scored a ton of goals off the rush last season—the Habs took that away, especially the final three games. What I am trying to explain is why the Caps’ shooting% dropped as much as it did, since I’m not convinced Halak was 98% good over the final three games. 95% maybe, but there were a combination of factors at work.
Anyways, I’d just like to see fewer shots against.
by red army line on Oct 5, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
but for a team that is known for its depth, that’s not good at all.
Who says the Caps are known for their depth? I think the Caps are actually pretty top-heavy compared to teams like Chicago and Philly last year. We have top-line scoring depth, but our 4th line is an offensive black hole, and we generate almost nothing from our defense with the exception of Green.
Corsi ratings do count shot blocks
I didn’t say that very well, what I meant was that if Ovie pounds a shot into Hal Gill’s shinpads, it still counts as a positive Corsi event. Likewise if he puts a shot 10 feet over the glass. I’m not really sure why that’s the case. I suppose I understand the methodology and reasoning, I just don’t agree with it in an era when shot-blocking has become such a huge part of the game. Pounding a shot into someone’s shinpads or putting the shot into the safety netting is counted the same as a goal or a tough save or a near-miss off the post, and I’m just not buying that as an analytic tool without some further qualifications.
The bare bones of it is that the Caps were treading water with roughly 50-50 play without AO on the ice.
The problem with this assessment is that if the Caps were really that weak at shot generation vs. denial, then you’d expect to see the rest of the team sucking in their Corsi/On, but you don’t. There were only three Caps regulars (30gp+) who had negative Corsi ratings: Fleischmann, Chimera and Sloan. Of those, Chimera’s poor showing comes largely from his time in CBJ (and Sloan was. . . Sloan).
Moreover, it’s not coincidental that Fleischmann and Ovie play the same position and almost never play together at even strength (2.75%). As much as you could say that Ovie lifted everyone he played with, you can likewise say that his tiny Corsi/Off is dragged down by Fleischmann’s ass-tastic performance as the #2LW.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Who says the Caps are known for their depth?
What happened to 7 20 goal scorers, 3 30 goal scorers, double digit 10 goal scorers?
Moreover, it’s not coincidental that Fleischmann and Ovie play the same position and almost never play together at even strength (2.75%). As much as you could say that Ovie lifted everyone he played with, you can likewise say that his tiny Corsi/Off is dragged down by Fleischmann’s ass-tastic performance as the #2LW.
It goes beyond that. Quite simply, the Caps were better at outshooting opponents in 2007-2008 (only Matt Cooke has a negative Corsi on), and in 2008-2009 only Clark, Gordon, and Brashear were in the red. What this tells me is the Caps are beginning to rely on AO and Backstrom to carry the team too much of the time.
That doesn’t even factor in score effects—I bet the Caps got a trailing-and-trying-to-catch-up bump in 2009-2010 and a leading-and-trying-to-hang-on decrease in 2008-2009.
As for Fleischmann dragging everyone down—it was mainly Laich and Semin that got hurt, if I added the numbers correctly. Still, Flash without AO was a 49.3% Corsi. Not a big difference there for the Caps to make up, but they couldn’t. There were only ~52% Fenwick or so on the year too. Seems to me like outside of the top line the Caps are rather pedestrian, or at least have played as such, and that includes D (G has a small sample, but the early returns look promising). Not a formula for success, if you ask me.
Chicago by comparison, IIRC, was in the 57% range.
I think forwards backchecking and helping to limit shots would go a long way towards helping out defensively, especially since getting ESsv% north of .920 from both goalies is by no means a lock.
by red army line on Oct 4, 2010 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
What happened to 7 20 goal scorers, 3 30 goal scorers, double digit 10 goal scorers?
So above you’re arguing above that the Caps lack scoring depth, but here they’re deep? Which one is it? To be clear, I don’t think the Caps lack depth, but I do think they’re “front-loaded,” meaning that they’re relatively more talented up top (Ovie, Bax, Semin, Green), with some scrubs rounding out the bottom (Steckel, Gordo(s), Sloskine). In terms of the Caps being known for something, I’d say they’re known for being uber-talented at the top-end, but I realize that’s very subjective.
the Caps were better at outshooting opponents in 2007-2008 (only Matt Cooke has a negative Corsi on), and in 2008-2009 only Clark, Gordon, and Brashear were in the red. What this tells me is the Caps are beginning to rely on AO and Backstrom to carry the team too much of the time.
Or this could tell you that raw shooting stats like Corsi aren’t necessarily always a good reflection of what’s actually happening. The Caps of 09-10 were a better team than the Caps of 07-08. Maybe they depend overmuch on Ovie and Backstrom, but it certainly seems to work (in the regular season).
As for Fleischmann dragging everyone down—it was mainly Laich and Semin that got hurt, if I added the numbers correctly. Still, Flash without AO was a 49.3% Corsi. Not a big difference there for the Caps to make up, but they couldn’t.
Remember, you’re only talking about a -.38 Corsi/off for Ovie as though it’s significant. If that’s significant, then so is the fact that the next left wing in line after Ovie has a negative Corsi. If you imagine a situation where Ovie gets off and Flash gets on the ice a few times a game, it could literally be as small as that.
If you want to say that the Caps got lucky last year in terms of shooting % and ESSv%, I’m on board and I agree completely. If you want to say that the Caps missed Fedorov’s ability to control the game as a #2C, I can buy that. If you want to say that the Caps could use an honest-to-God #2C, I’m also on board.
Where I think you’re off-base is equating a piddling little -.38 Corsi for Ovechkin to the fact that the team is just treading water (or worse) when he’s not on the ice. Again, I’m not necessarily stat-averse, you’ve just got to paint a better contextual picture of this before I’m buying it.
I think forwards backchecking and helping to limit shots would go a long way towards helping out defensively
I’m less concerned with the forwards backchecking, and more concerned with them not leaving the zone early. I’m equally concerned with the ability of the defensemen to get the pucks of their sticks and to the forwards quickly without getting hemmed in.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
So above you’re arguing above that the Caps lack scoring depth, but here they’re deep? Which one is it?
I was arguing their reputation, based on those numbers, is, but in reality they’re not as deep as they’re made out to be sometimes. At least, they’re not utterly dominating the puck. They were just converting better.
Remember, you’re only talking about a -.38 Corsi/off for Ovie as though it’s significant. If that’s significant, then so is the fact that the next left wing in line after Ovie has a negative Corsi. If you imagine a situation where Ovie gets off and Flash gets on the ice a few times a game, it could literally be as small as that.
Especially since it’s dropped from 7+ to 6.7 to 0, I’m worried. I want that to be better, and I think it has to be. There are nights when AO and Backstrom won’t be able to light it up. A team like Detroit would shut down that top line. And then what?
I’m less concerned with the forwards backchecking, and more concerned with them not leaving the zone early. I’m equally concerned with the ability of the defensemen to get the pucks of their sticks and to the forwards quickly without getting hemmed in.
I guess it’s just selective memory, but I’m remembering lots of rushes against. That’s why I specifically called backchecking.
by red army line on Oct 5, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
From the BtN article on Fenwick:
I’m actually going to look at what I believe are called “Fenwick” numbers today – total shots directed at goal excluding blocked shots. Because of rink bias, Fenwick numbers actually correlate better with winning than Corsi numbers do.
(Emphasis added)
This is the kind of context I’m talking about. I look at Corsi, and I see that a blocked shot is as much a positive event as a shot on goal and I think to myself “bullshit” (for a whole bunch of reasons). Fenwick already makes more sense to me.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
But for whatever reason blocked shots aren’t strongly correlated with winning.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
As best I can figure out, if you have to block a bunch of shots, you’re probably in your own end and more likely to be losing. That said, blocking a shot in and of itself is a good thing; it never reaches the goalie.
So some teams block a lot of shots because they have to and the circumstances that lead to that are bad for winning hockey games. But the ability to block shots (Volchenkov is the cited example) is good in and of itself.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 4, 2010 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions
My bigger issue is that Corsi gives you a positive result for pounding a shot into someone’s pads. I’m less concerned with the fact that they don’t count blocks as a positive, for the reasons you mention.
Nevertheless, this is trending away from the Caps’ season and toward an esoteric stat discussion. My original point was that I don’t think Corsi is a good “one-size-fits-all” statistical measurement, and that it’s particularly bad at judging teams like the Caps, who have tons of skill and can do more with fewer shots.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Honestly, I don’t think there is a “one-size-fits-all” statistical measurement. People really need to stop trying to find complex stat solutions as to why their team did the way they did. Use the simple stats to supplement what you saw and what you observed.
Soon the Championship with be ours, all ours!
Honestly, I don’t think there is a "one-size-fits-all" statistical measurement.
I don’t think anyone with any amount of experience looking at or generating advanced stats would tell you otherwise.
People really need to stop trying to find complex stat solutions as to why their team did the way they did. Use the simple stats to supplement what you saw and what you observed.
The point of advanced stats is two-fold. Objective one is to understand what the hell happened. We, as humans, have a lot of bias in our memories of games. If we record our observations as they happen and rely on our recordings, we tend to have a much more accurate picture than trying to piece together the gestalt after the fact. To loosely paraphrase Gabe Desjardins, if people just want to watch the games and rigorously record scoring chances, that works just as well, or better, as anything the advanced stat community has yet come up with. The scoring chance ratio actually seems to converge with the Corsi and Fenwick ratio over the course of the season. The key here is rigor; if they’re not recorded in a systematic way, the results are much less reliable.
Point two is to predict future performance. Corsi and Fenwick are useful tools in part because they don’t regress to the mean nearly as hard as things like shooting percentage and save percentage while on the ice. They’re stronger predictive values for what’s going to happen in the future than the boxcar stats, which have a larger component of luck, or non-repeatability. Before we go off on a tangent about luck, let me define it as things that teams or players can’t reliably reproduce for whatever reason. The less element of that there is, the better future predictor a statistic is.
So in sum, advanced stats are all about trying to look forward by looking deep into trends that have happened in the past.
Objective
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 5, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
And to bring it back home, the stuff that’s repeatable, shots for and against, is falling as a metric. That’s not a good thing, especially not coming off a season with historically high shooting percentages for the lower-line players and for the goalies at even strength.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 5, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
who have tons of skill and can do more with fewer shots.
No one has shown if this is a repeatable skill from year to year, quite frankly. Therein lies the issue. I’m not convinced the team continues to shoot 10.5% at 5-on-5 or whatever it was that was so far above the average. If shooting% goes down, then that’s an issue.
by red army line on Oct 5, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m pretty sure that Tom Awad and Alan Ryder have found some evidence that it exists, but it’s pretty small and not as repeatable as other skills.
That’s something that really worries me with the Caps; if their shooting percentages are a function of their playstyle, there’s a lot more room for variance. If they run cold, they’re going to run really, really cold.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 5, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Is it not also possible, though, that we have some historically great shooters? In other words, are the regressions of the people who are likely to regress (Flash, etc.) really going to sink the team even if they, as you say, run really really cold?
Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.
Semin is a pretty good shooter in terms of hitting his spots more often than NHL top-six forwards from the same location. Ovechkin is actually closer to average, but generates a metric shitload of shots. My guess is that because he shoots through defenders and with someone on him so often his shooting percentage is lower. If he took open shots, I bet he’s well above average.
The Young Guns are all excellent at raising the team shooting percentage while they’re on the ice – that effect seems to exist for good players. Speculation on my part: When the other team figures out how to adjust to that in the short term, you can see short-term fall-offs in percentages more often than you otherwise would. One more reason I’d love to see a tactician behind the bench, someone really strong at in-game or game-to-game adjustments.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 5, 2010 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I completely agree with the notion of having someone behind the bench that could switch things up when the same ol’ same ol’ stops working.
I guess I’d also be more worried if the Caps’ historically high shooting percentages had resulted in middle-of-the-pack goalscoring (if they had been taking fewer shots and getting lucky). As the scored an equally historically high number of goals, however, I’m not as worried about the regression. They shot, according to NHL.com, 313 goals on 2693 shots (11.6%). Even if they regress to 10%, which is a pretty steep drop, that’s still 269 goals, and still would have been best in the league last year.
Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.
Another issue that I have with Corsi is that a goal (or a shot on goal with a save and a whistle) is perversely worse than a shot that misses the net completely or a blocked shot, because theoretically, you could corral the puck and keep shooting after a missed shot or a blocked shot, thereby increasing your Corsi rating, whereas a goal “ends” that possession. From a Corsi perspective, all you’ve gained is a Zone Finish.
Personally, I think there’s a “hierarchy of shots” if you will:
G>SOG with traffic>SOG with rebound>SOG without rebound~Shot wide~Deflected shot wide that leaves the ice>Shot wide that leaves the zone>blocked shot
Amidst this hierarchy, there would be another ranking for the quality/distance of the shot…
/end stats rant/
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
I’m pretty sure that shot distance is incorporated in Tom Awad’s Delta statistic, as a part of where players shot from and how likely the total sample size is to score from that particular spot on the ice.
We can see with our eyes that some shots are clearly at the goalie, screened, unscreened, hurried, unhurried, etc. I don’t yet know of a way to capture that in the statistics and I think that’s a part of what the Caps do. Anecdotally, they score a lot on the rush in what tend to be clearer shots on net relying on puck and player movement before the defense can get set. I’m pretty sure that contributes to a higher shooting percentage, but it’s really hard to prove with the data.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 5, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I can buy that. I also agree that if you block a shot it is positive, but if you miss the block it can be a huge negative because you screen your goalie or deflect the puck. It’s why I don’t like making shotblocking a huge part of my defensive strategy. If it’s there, block it, but I’d rather focus on a lot of other things rather than collapsing and just trying to block shots.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Tops in EC
After that, who knows? The playoffs, as we discovered last year to our chagrin, are a matter of match-ups and health. The Caps had the latter, but got burned by the former.
The Caps got lucky last year in terms of shooting % and save %, but I also think that the team as constituted will give up fewer shots, primarily because Carlson and Alzner are much, much, MUCH better at moving the puck out of their own end than ShaMo and Jurcina. (That point really cannot be stressed enough.)
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
MTL was the team we least wanted to face and was the toughest matchup based on their team’s strengths and regular season record. A lot didn’t go correctly but the caps didn’t perform to what was expected was the bottom line.
As far as defense goes I think we are a lot better in our end now not only as you have pointed out but because Carlznerson is expected to take decent minutes, subract minutes from green and sarge, and the 2 of them are better shot blockers than ShaMo/Juice/Corvo combined, and a team can never have too much shot blocking.
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
The Caps should contend for the Cup by going deep in the playoffs. It’s impossible to know if that will happen or not.
I know that we have an exciting team to watch, and I’m more optimistic than I’ve been in the 30+ years I’ve followed the Caps. But those 30+ years have taught me to temper my enthusiasm with reality.
Someone’s signature line here once read: A Caps fan doesn’t view a glass as half-full or half-empty but asks when it will tip over. That describes my approach perfectly.
Life With Spidey -- a blog about sports, travel, work, family and fun.
Representing Caps fandom in the Gateway to the West.
One of the season previews I read made a very good point. The Caps MUST close out their series in 4-6 games. The other teams learn too well how to shut them down by that seventh game.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
by EmilyB on Oct 4, 2010 4:31 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I have a hard time finding a team in the Eastern Conference that is, top to bottom, more talented than the Capitals. They were very very good last year, didn’t lose anything in the way of core pieces this offseason, and have very talented youth ready to take over in those places where holes did emerge. Besides, assuming Varly can stay healthy, he’s been at the NHL level for a few years now. He should be fine if Neuvy needs some time being a backup at the NHL level. The center depth is really the only glaring weakness, and that can be fixed on the trade market, and masked by good wing depth.
The Caps should win their division, contend for the top seed, and do well in the playoffs. The playoffs, as we all know very well, are impossible to predict, though. Should still be a pretty excellent season.
"If you can accept losing, you can't win." ~Vince Lombardi
Tweet Tweet.
the palpable "click"
I would effing kill for a palpable click. I view our powerplay as more like… a sledgehammer of skill. KEEP POUNDING UNTIL PUCK GO IN. Except the “pounding” is a mix of laser shots, mostly solo moves, and general tunnel vision. I think this power play’s ceiling is somewhere north of 28%, probably 30%. Yes, I know that’s a ridiculous claim. Because those 4 guys are absolutely ridiculous talents.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Oct 4, 2010 4:45 PM EDT reply actions
I think most of the regular season our 1st, 3rd and 4rth lines had the “palpable click” you mention. They were very fluid and combined for a massive amount of ES goals and a just as large ES differential.
The power play when they “get cute” has two faces, one the puppy – where they pass around and look ready to play but let go of their toy without struggle or the sledgehammer where they just barrage poor shots hoping the goalie errs. But that’s when its not working, which wasn’t often during the regular season as they had large tactical success.
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
If the Stanley Cup were awarded on raw skill alone the Caps would win it hands down. They’ve got all the skill in the world. Bruce’s system causes me some worry. It’s a great system for an offensive-heavy lineup like the Caps have and when everything’s going their way it works well but there doesn’t seem to be any kind of Plan B when the Caps face an opponent who’s sussed out the game plan and plays a tight, disciplined, defensive game against them.
Firewagon hockey is fun to watch but there will be times when the Caps are going to have to be able to switch gears, pick up that proverbial lunch pail, and grind out a win. I’m not convinced that this bunch can do that.
It seems odd to me that for so much of their existence the Caps were a hard-working, opportunistic team that was always one or two star players away from getting over the top and now they’re a sublimely talented team that can’t or won’t do the dirty work required to win it all.
Something in-between would be nice…
Don’t get me wrong -the Caps are an amazingly talented team but we’ve all seen that talent alone doesn’t bring Lord Stanley’s Cup to a city. I want only the best for the Caps and all of us Caps fans but I won’t drink the Kool Aid. There was more to last year’s abrupt playoff ouster then a hot goalie in the Montreal net.
Championship teams have an aura around them -Detroit always has it, New Jersey often does too. I just don’t feel it about the Caps. I wish I did.
I’m not saying they can’t get it -many teams pick up that aura as a season goes on -but as they stand now I’d have to agree with the predictions of bowing out in the Conference Finals.
by Jeff T on Oct 4, 2010 7:35 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
I don’t think the way they play the game is inherently wrong, it’s just a risky way to go about their business. The “firewagon” strategy almost already assumes you’re going to score an adequate amount of goals. If the PK is bad, it doesn’t matter because the next goal you’re gonna score will cancel it out. If your defense is bad, it doesn’t matter because you’re gonna score more goals on your opponents. When you don’t score goals, the system falls apart.
As for the ‘aura’ around them, i think thats just your familiarity with the Capitals. You know their weaknesses at 2C and 6 and 7D. You know Flash may burn out come Play-Off timeor Semin has a high chance of disappearing come springtime. Do you really know Detroit or New Jersey as intimately as you know the Caps?
Soon the Championship with be ours, all ours!
So much is made about Montreal “shutting us down” last year. It’s hard for me to accept that description. They boarded up the fort and hoped for some opportunistic scoring and some mistakes to go their way. We weren’t the only team they did it against either…they came back against Pitt as well and shut down their big guns far better than they did ours. When a goalie is playing at that level and their D is that committed to putting everything out there to prevent shots and chances you can’t have things go against you or let up in any way. We let up in Game 5, Game 6 I saw no way of winning in that building that night unless we got a lead somehow. In Game 7 we have more than one almost moment that quite literally in all likelihood would have changed how the rest of the playoffs would have went. They didn’t go our way, and 2 costly Mike Green errors led to both of their goals.
Outshooting them 31-6 or whatever it was over the last 2 periods and not coming out on top is something that can happen in hockey. I doubt you’ll ever see our PP go through a stretch like that again either. A lot of things went wrong for them to pull off the series win. It happens. Every year is totally different.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
To all the Writers/Editors (and peanut gallery as well)
What is one positive development that could cause you to revise your predictions?
What is one negative development that could cause you to revise your predictions?
I sort of this this as “if X happens, the Caps could win the Cup, but if Y happens, they could miss the playoffs or get knocked out in the first round.”
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
If Flash works as 2C (or the Caps get a legit 2C) they could go all the way. If not, might be a 1st round exit. The only way I can see them missing the playoffs is for Ovie and Backs to both have a catastrophic, season-ending injury during the 1st half of the season.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
I’m not convinced on our 2nd line center being the key, but that could just be me not knowing what the caps would play like if they had a good 2nd line center. that hole has been there forever it seems like. I would say that the Stanley Cup Winning key would be alzner and carlson becoming a shut down pair of defense-men, which is asking a lot.
alternatively, we could go a completely different direction and put Mike Green on 2nd line center.
1) An acquisition. I think last year showed pretty clearly that no matter what happens during the regular season, it’s not necessarily a great predictor of what will happen in the post-season. Of course, there’s no guarantee that a new player or players will work out, but I think any move that bumps some guys down the depth chart would give a better reason for optimism than, say, a slightly better PK.
2) Injuries, of course, but short of that, Alzner and/or Carlson showing that they’re not quite ready for prime time. The Caps are going with a good bit of “hope” there, and if it falls through, so do the team’s chances.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I agree totally, and there are two acquisitions the Caps need to make: #2C and #5/6 D. After seeing him flop around in the preseason game against the Providence Bruins, I don’t want to see any more of John Erskine, and I’d be happiest if both he and Sloan went away forever.
The thing I’d add to part #2 is the Semin contract year factor. If playing for $$$ focuses Sasha over 82 games (and into the playoffs), the Caps could have this thing in the bag. “Good Sasha” is one of the best players on earth and if he shows up 3 nights out of 4, it’s game over. If, on the other hand, contract negotiations prove to be a distraction, or Semin puts too much pressure on himself and winds up being “Bad Sasha,” this could be a long year.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
Positive: If either Varly or Neuvirth establishes themselves as the clear #1 goaltender, then the Caps can definitely win the Stanley Cup
Negative: If Varly’s injuries keep dogging him and Neuvy gets hurt….look out! Holtby’s good, but I don’t think he’s NHL ready yet.
Washington Capitals 2009-10 = Quebec Nordiques 1994-95
--- D'ohboy
by MikeL-Pivonka on Oct 5, 2010 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
But...but...but...Becca...
I noted your carefully worded prediction. You said, and I quote: The Caps will make it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals…and I’ll leave it at that BUT you did not come out and say they will WIN the Stanley Cup. Are you saying they will lose to the eventual WC champion? Honestly, I don’t know what would be worse for long-suffering Caps fans—to exit in the first round like last year, or to go all the way to the SC Finals and not close the deal. I’ll say this now in advance and give ample warning: if the Caps end up in a SC Finals Game 7 that goes into overtime…I don’t think I’ll survive.
The Game 7 OT thing is something I have been dreading/envisioning happening again ever since Philly 3 years ago. If only Feds had looked up for that redirect of that Ovie slap pass it never would have been necessary. I don’t think I’ve ever had my heart ripped out worse than that one. At least against Pitt and Montreal I had a whole game of being behind to somewhat prepare myself for the possibility it would end there.
If it happened in the Finals and we came out on the wrong end I might not speak for a couple months.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Oct 5, 2010 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
great season preview.
I would agree with Becca’s analysis if only for the superstition behind the winter classic. Also I think that alznerson and neuvy/varly could surprise us if they each get a full season under their belts. I think the starting goalie should be figured out muuuuuch sooner than last season though. Neuvy is the best candidate for the position in my opinion; Varly’s simply not durable enough for a full season of hockey as I see it.
as voiced above several times:
cautiously optimistic
There are certain players who are now in the window of their top production. You can pencil in Ovechkin for 50 goals, Backstrom for 100 points, Green for a point a game, Semin for 40 goals (if he plays 75-plus games). Those are the constants.
It what the next group does that will tell the tale with this team…
— Can Brooks Laich, Eric Fehr, and Tomas Fleischmann be consistent 25-goal players? More important, will they show up with that kind of production in the spring (as a group they were 5-3-8, minus-1 against Montreal).
- Will one of Mattieu Perreault or Marcus Johansson take a roster spot by the throat and have a solid rookie year?
- Will the Caps’ top four defensemen, especially Carlson grow up fast to counter their relative lack of experience?
- Will the guys coming in from Hershey bring that winning aura with them?
All of that points to waiting until things unfold. Precisely because the Caps are so young, and have so much of their learning curve to travel, the team in April is likely to be a lot different than the team in October. Today’s Caps team is not a Cup-winning team. April? We’ll see.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Thanks. As usual you pare down the discussion to its essentials perfectly. And that’s why there is a regular season.
Alright, confess-how many goals are you going to make this year?
"I'm not going to tell!"
Well can you at least guarantee fifty?
"No way. I have a different objective. To win."
by capsyoungguns on Oct 5, 2010 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
My fear over the course of the season and beyond into the post-season is that the Caps’ fate depends, in large part, on unknown quantities. I think the Caps know what to expect out of certain players at this point – that is to say, within a band of probability, we can pencil in Ovechkin for 50/100, Semin for 35/80, Green for 20/80, Backstrom for 30/90 and so on.
Over the course of the regular season, however, the team will rely a great deal on relatively unknown quantities in Alzner, Carlson, Varly and Neuvy. Beyond that, the Caps are placing a great deal of faith in Flash and Mackan to anchor the second and third center positions.
The post-season is the scariest prospect for me, though. The last few post-season failures have demonstrated that Ovie and Backstrom will perform and that enough grinders will show up (Steckel, Brads and Laich in 08-09, Gordo and Poti in 09-10) to give the Caps a chance. The key independent variable, though, is the Caps’ “streaky” players – Green and Semin and, to a lesser extent, Flash, Laich and Knuble.
The Caps can essentially bank on point/game production at a minimum out of Ovie and Backstrom – but that has proven to not be enough to win. If the Caps are going to go deep, Green, Semin, Laich, Knuble and Flash will have to show up.
For anyone who’s watched Caps hockey over the last few years, that’s a scary, scary thought.
'Cause the end of what it was is what it is right now...
by D'ohboy on Oct 5, 2010 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Lumping Fehr in with Flash and Laich in last year’s playoffs is a bit misleading. He was 3-1-4, +2, while Laich and Flash were 2-1-3, -2 and 0-1-1, -1. Fehr was the highest scoring player not playing on the top line – and he still had 8 minutes less of TOI/G than Laich or Semin.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Japers' Rink
Related FanShots on Japers' Rink
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recent FanShots
The Vault
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Why the Devils and the Kings are evidence the Capitals shouldn’t trade Alex Ovechkin
- Eulogy: Remembering the 2011-12 New York Rangers
- Stanley Cup Final: 5 keys for New Jersey Devils and Los Angeles Kings
- Friday’s Three Stars: Devils head to Final; Brodeur, Kovalchuk the difference in Game 6
- Devils eliminate Rangers in Game 6, ending fear of the past, setting course for the future
