Shifting Focus to a Focus on Shifts
by J.P. on Oct 22, 2010 7:04 PM EDT
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Print"We'd like to corral him, but what're you gonna do?" - Bruce Boudreau on Alex Ovechkin's propensity for taking lengthy shifts, 4/30/09
"It's back and forth and it's trying to convince the players that [they should be thinking], 'Oh, I know I’ve got a chance [to skate the puck in] on this but I’ve got to take the high road and dump it in and change.' Rather than go up there [into the attack zone] and then all of a sudden you’re going, 'Oh man, now I’ve got to go back [check] because we didn't score. It's a work in progress, but I’m pretty confident that it's going to get better." - Bruce Boudreau on his team's propensity for taking lengthy shifts, 10/22/10
Early in the second period of last night's 4-1 Bruins victory over the Caps, Patrice Bergeron gathered the puck below the Washington goal line and fed it out front to Jordan Caron. Here's how the Caps' were positioned in their zone:
That's Alex Ovechkin coasting in from above the circles and Nicklas Backstrom on top of the crease to the right of goaltender Semyon Varlamov. Neither forward was in a position to make a play on Caron, and Varly never had a chance. 2-0 Boston.
Of note, both Ovechkin and Backstrom had been on the ice for more than 1:50 (at even strength), an eternity for most hockey players, but not for Ovechkin. The Caps' captain leads the League in shift length and was skating his sixth minute-plus shift of the game (that's out of seven shifts) and his third 1:50-plus shift of the prior four shifts. To put that in perspective, recall that the Detroit Red Wings like to keep their stars' shift lengths at around 40 seconds come playoff time.
The shift length "issue" isn't a new one, but the shift discussed above - even if less by choice and more by the Caps' inability to get a change - is a reminder of why it's an issue (and part of why Ovechkin, Backstrom and Mike Knuble have been on the ice for more five-on-five goals against than any other Caps). And the stats back it up. As Gabe Desjardins detailed last winter, things go downhill fast when players stay out too long:
[T]he break-even point [on the percentage of shots for and against] is around 40 seconds, which is roughly the average even-strength shift length league-wide, and things fall apart after that.
By 70 seconds, only 40% of total shots are shots for. To put that in perspective, only the absolute worst players in the NHL have shot totals at that level - 40% for, 60% against. Staying on the ice even just a bit beyond a minute usually turns the average NHL player into a defensive catastrophe on the scale of Wade Belak.
Now, Alex Ovechkin is certainly not the average NHL player. But neither is he immune to the realities of fatigue, both physical and mental. As Tyler Dellow said: "[B]eing on the ice after a minute is sort of like being in a bar after 1:00 a.m. - there’s no guarantee that something bad will happen, it’s possible that something good will happen but the odds are slanted heavily in favour of something bad."
Come April (and May and June), one "something bad" could be the difference between playing on and going home for the Caps, so it's critically important for the team to get this situation under control as soon as possible. And whereas it was famously quipped that the only man who could hold Michael Jordan under 20 points per game was his college coach, Dean Smith, the only man who can hold Alex Ovechkin under one minute per shift is... Alex Ovechkin. It's clear that Bruce Boudreau either cannot or will not.
Boudreau referred to cutting shift times as "a work in progress." But progress, as George Bernard Shaw wrote, "is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything." Hopefully Alex Ovechkin can change his mind.
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I’m really happy you wrote this up. I’ve noticed this trend for a long time now and even remember someone writing an article about it a year or two back. It was some crazy stat like Ovie scores 90% of his goals within the first 50 seconds of his shifts (I made those numbers up, cause I can’t find the article, but its the gist).
Thursday’s game was particularly egregious. It felt like he was on the ice for 2+ minutes sometimes, and playing poorer and poorer with each passing second. I was so angry that BB would put him out there like that, but maybe its not all his fault?
I think this might be part of the reason the pp is struggling.
I am not surprised by that statistic. That goes along with my own gut feeling. Overall, it seems like if the Caps didn’t score during the first minute of a power play, they usually wouldn’t score. No wonder I’ve been harping on reducing his ice time, especially on power play
Rocking the Red since 1975
I think masisak had a tweet after tuesdays game that Ovie had been on the ice for something like 6:12 of the final 7:43. its impressive he could do it but no one can do that very long
"I would say my biggest flaw, my Achilles heel is my tireless work ethic"-Kenny Powers
Can he do it? Just because you are on the ice doesn’t mean you are doing it. That’s pickup game shifts.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
And, more to the point, it’s not what we’re talking about here – long shifts when the team is desperate at the end of a game are different than 1:20ers in the first period.
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I’d argue they are still ridiculous. I’d rather have someone of his caliber out there every other 30 seconds than for 1-2 minutes straight. Leaving him out there takes the dynamic out of his game, and makes it damned obvious where everything is gonna run through.
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It’s still a completely different scenario – desperation vs. generic unremarkable game situation – and I think we’d both agree that AO’s monster shifts in the latter are more of a concern.
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Right, and doing it 6 of 7 shifts is a habit, not a desperation move. Even if I accept the desperation shifts, that’s not this case.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Its also arrogance. While they might not be the best player in the world, there are quite a few guys on that bench that could put in a hell of a shift to get things going in desperation time. A long enough shift to get said best player in the world a quick breather
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Further, why is this team so desperate just (at that point) six games in, on the heels of a four game winning streak?
by Stephen Pepper on Oct 22, 2010 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I meant “desperate” in terms of game situation. Down two goals with two minutes left, you want AO on the ice, whether it’s October 7 or June 7, no?
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Rather than go up there [into the attack zone] and then all of a sudden you’re going, ‘Oh man, now I’ve got to go back [check] because we didn’t score.
More often than not the player has to rush back because the “shot” morphs into a turnover rather quickly. I like the ones that aren’t on net, end up on the half boards on the opposite side and the bad guys are off to the races.
It’s a work in progress, but I’m pretty confident that it’s going to get better."
The first half of this is another pull-out-my-hair screamer of a comment. If the team made significant changes in the off-season I could buy it.
How exactly is this a “work in progress”? Isn’t the coach the one that DECIDES who goes on the ice, when and for how long? Last I checked, that would be BB. There should be no need to “work on” anything. He needs to simply man up and GIVE Ovie shorter shifts. If he can’t do that, then he should not be coach.
An Ovechkin head in every locker!
Hopefully Alex Ovechkin can change his mind.
He needs to simply man up and GIVE Ovie shorter shifts. If he can’t do that, then he should not be coach.
It’s times like this that the man who wears the “C” has to lead his team.
Agreed. What isn’t needed is a BB/AO pissing contest. What is needed is for AO to do what needs to be done for the good of the team.
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I never thought about that. I can’t see BB getting into such a contest with any of his players – at least not anything that makes the old or new media. These guys have been playing long enough to know what the coach’s job is.
Right. I’m not sure why there’s so much resistance here to place some of the responsibility on the guy actually skating the shifts.
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I have no issue with it. But we can’t really make that statement because we don’t know if he even knows its hurting the team. If he is just in his own world and doesnt know, and the coach doesn’t tell him, then it is still on the coach. If he knows or the coach tells him, its on him.
Personally, I think they are both responsible, but unfortunately, these things are always going to end up on the coach.
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He knows. You learn that at a pretty young age.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
And if you read between the lines ever-so-slightly, you can tell Bruce has mentioned it to him a time or two.
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If BB can’t control the shifts, then he can’t control the team. If he can’t control the team, he has no business being coach.
by Gin and Tonic on Oct 22, 2010 8:26 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
With many of the long shifts forced by their inability to clear the puck, I hope the Caps worked on that in practice. At least they did work on special teams, including power play.
Rocking the Red since 1975
I can understand how shifts get long since, in so many sports, leading by example means working harder, taking on more of the burden, exerting more physical effort. I realize it is or should be second nature to a hockey player that managing/appropriately limiting your ice time helps your team, but it is a pretty unique and counterintuitive aspect of the sport. Especially in the context of such a tough guy sport.
"This guy is an android. He's not human....Oh my goodness."
But at the same time, discipline is what matters. You need to know when you are helping and when you are hurting the team. And, especially with a guy like AO, he knows he’ll get back on the ice so staying on for a long shift isn’t accomplishing anything.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Yeah, it makes perfect sense. And I understand that even very physical athletes should feel this/know it — it’s a very fundamental part of the sport. At the same time, I wonder how the need to manage shifts interacts with the basic competitive instincts of these elite athletes.
It’s the same issue JP is talking about a few comments above. I’m not trying to lessen the players’ burden here to take responsibility for their play, just thinking about the psychology of it and why a guy who knows better doesn’t do what he needs to do.
"This guy is an android. He's not human....Oh my goodness."
And that recognition (and, more importantly, action) is part of maturing as a player and a leader, which I suppose is my underlying point here.
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Another example, Quarterbacks are supposed to not force throws because of the risk of turnovers. They want to make a play to help the team, but they have to know when it’s time to cut bait. Sometimes throwing the ball away is the best play. Sometimes getting off the ice is the best thing to do.
Lockout talk makes me want to go out and choke an old lady - Elliotte Friedman
Another example – sometimes you’ve had plenty to drink, but someone wants to shoot (more) tequila. When you were young, you’d do the shot and not think about the consequences. But as you mature, you consider what might happen if you do the shot. And do it anyway.
OK, bad example.
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It’s a good example, but there’s still something basic in sports about “working harder = good” that these guys have had to unlearn.
It’s different but, in another life, when I moved from bartender to mgr of a place, I thought I was doing a great job because I ran around like a demon running food, turning tables, helping the bartender, the dishwasher whatever. Finally, the owner took me aside and basically said, I didn’t hire you to be a superbusser and I don’t care that you are willing to get your hands dirty or whatever — you’re job is to supervise everyone else and get them to do their shit.
Getting others to work with good habits was a lot harder than simply doing the stuff they left undone. And working harder on your own is not always the right answer to a problem, especially in a team/group setting.
"This guy is an android. He's not human....Oh my goodness."
Sorry, it’s on the coach almost 100%. Every player wants to play as long as the coach will let them. If it’s allowed over and over then it means its accepted behavior.
If BB REALLY didn’t want Ovi to stay out there that long he’d say something after the first long shift, sit him for a shift if he did it again, sit him for a period if he did it again, and finally sit him for a game. The message would get through.
It’s not that hard to know if you’ve been out way too long, “oh shit, I’m on a line with Steckel, better get my ass off the ice.”
Ovi isn’t going to sit himself, he thinks being out there 1:30 is for the best of the team. And really, at this point I think BB thinks so as well, or, he has no control.
Think twice before you speak, and then you may be able to say something more insulting than if you spoke right out at once.
by zephyr on Oct 23, 2010 1:26 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I agree that it’s important for BB to instill in AO an understanding here of “what” and “why,” but ultimately it’s on Alex as much as it is on Bruce. While I don’t think Bruce should coddle or enable his superstar (more than he already has, at least), until the player gets it through his head, there’s not likely to be any real change. Does benching him get it through his head? I tend to doubt it. I think that does more harm than good, ultimately.
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It’s certainly on BB as the coach, but to a point. Not so certain it’s almost 100%. At some point AO, especially with the ‘C’ on his sweater, has to realize and be cognizant of the fact that the longer he stays out on a shift (especially on multiple occasions) the more likely it’ll be detrimental to not only the ongoing play at hand but also subsequent plays later during the course of the game. He’s got to get that in his head and act on it. After all he’s the one out there on the ice. There’s something to be said about knowing one’s limits.
It’s been drilled into me constantly as a player to not wait until I feel tired or realize I’m on the ice without my line mates to get off the ice. More importantly, my coaches would tell us that it was ultimately up to each one of us (1st liners to 4th liners, stars or role players) to be accountable and responsible for managing our shift time. There would be reminders, but again we were the ones on the ice.
It’s not that hard to know if you’ve been out way too long, "oh shit, I’m on a line with Steckel, better get my ass off the ice."
If that’s the kind of indication that OV needs to know he’s been out way too long on the ice and needs to sit himself at that point, then I find that very problematic from a mental and discipline standpoint.
I liken it to this common scenario: More often than not a distance runner is already dehydrated when he/she realizes they’re thirsty, “oh shit, I’m thirsty … better get some fluids in my body.” By then, the detrimental effects of not having been proactively managing re-hydration had already begun long before; the runner finds themselves in less-than ideal situation that would impact their performance later down the road at mile ‘X’ and further. That’s a discipline and mental stuff that, for the most part, only the runner can control.
Previously incarnated as UnleashFurry
Keep Fear Alive
"The problem with our team when it comes to shift lengths is there is so much up and down flow. When you have a lot of whistles, it’s easy to get [regular] shift lengths because every 30 seconds there seems to be a whistle. But there are less whistles in our games than in anybody else’s games. It’s back and forth and it’s trying to convince the players that [they should be thinking], ‘Oh, I know I’ve got a chance [to skate the puck in] on this but I’ve got to take the high road and dump it in and change.’ Rather than go up there [into the attack zone] and then all of a sudden you’re going, ‘Oh man, now I’ve got to go back [check] because we didn’t score."
Unfortunately, I think as long as the coach continues to make excuses (like the lack of whistles), we can talk forever about what certain individual players should know about managing shift length and fatigue. If the Capitals style of play means that they get fewer whistles, but fatigue sets in and costs the team because of long shift lengths, the TEAM needs to have a game plan for addressing that in some shape, form or fashion. They also need to have practiced it until they can execute it automatically, when the opposition wants to disrupt everything the Caps want to accomplish. And since the TEAM needs the game plan, the drills to work on it and the practice time to learn it - that’s on the coach.
Don’t make fun of my obsession over ketchup dispensers ever again! ;) Ted Leonsis
Ovi is second in ice time on the team, and 12th in shifts per game.
You would think Ovechkin’s shift in the second period of 2:54 was his longest. You’d be wrong. He spent the last 3:49 seconds of the game on the ice.
But certainly this was just one game right? Wrong again. His longest shift in Tuesday’s game against the B’s: 3:05. (In the Second Period) His last four shifts of that game average just above 1:30.
Minus only the Islanders game where his longest shift was 1:48, Ovechkin has had a shift lasting longer than 2:00 in every game this season. Often having two or more shifts longer and most games(4) having at least one shift of longer than 2:30.
This season:
Ovechkin’s game with the shortest amount of TOI was also his best statistically. Logging 19:17 against NJD. His second shortest amount of TOI was also his second best game statistically. Logging 21:31 against NYI. His third shortest amount of TOI was also his third best game statistically. Logging 22:38 against OTT.
Every game Ovechkin has spent more than 23:00 on ice has been an even or minus game for Ovechkin. Ovechkin has not scored a goal in a game in which he has more than 23:00 TOI.
____
There’s a major causation/correlation issue here – Ovi plays more when they’re losing (which is usually the case when he hasn’t produced any offense) and less when they’re winning (which is usually the case when he has produced offense).
In sum,
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Four wins:
NJD: 1st: 7:31 — 2nd: 5:13 — 3rd: 6:33
OTT: 1st: 6:00 — 2nd: 7:29 — 3rd: 7:40 — OT: 1:40
NYI: 1st: 7:35 — 2nd: 6:51 — 3rd: 7:05
NSH: 1st: 5:02 — 2nd: 9:03 — 3rd: 8:11 — OT: 1:13
Three losses:
ATL: 1st: 6:51 — 2nd: 7:18 — 3rd: 9:09
BOS: 1st: 5:57 — 2nd: 7:57 — 3rd: 9:42
BOS: 1st: 8:09 — 2nd: 7:01 — 3rd: 10:43
Avg in wins: 1st: 6:35 — 2nd: 7:09 — 3rd: 7:20
Avg. in losses: 1st: 6:59 — 2nd: 7.25 — 3rd: 9:52
We’ll leave it to you to break this down by TOI/shift
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Oct 23, 2010 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Awesome numbers – showed something very clearly I hadn’t realized. Most of that difference is in the 3rd in the games they were losing. The difference in TOI per period of losses vs. wins is 24 and 21 seconds for the 1st and 2nd periods, but 2:32 for the 3rd. That certainly shows where the extra minutes are coming from – an attempt at getting late goals.
Never underrate the power of the hissy-cow.
Great re-visiting Hradek’s ‘Quality Time’ …
Quick, smart line changes are so crucial that the Wings devoted an entire practice to them during an unexpected layover in St. Louis last season. Bonus benefit: Quick changes prevent positioning breakdowns that result in odd-man rushes.
And that last line in the above paragraph? Bingo.
Previously incarnated as UnleashFurry
Keep Fear Alive
I was watching the Texas Rangers last night, and I liked the motto from their all time hit leader, Micheal Young. It’s “I trust my teammates, I trust myself”. I’m especially impressed with the order. I’d like to see Ovi and the Caps take that to heart.
Don’t make fun of my obsession over ketchup dispensers ever again! ;) Ted Leonsis
So Hanlon was fired in part because the guy who should have been the most prolific goal scorer in the league was suffocating under his system of play. They brought in BB, who essentially gave AO free reign to lead the offense and just go on scoring rampages. Both AO and the team responded, and the last two seasons were the result.
I’m really starting to wonder if that immediate “just let AO play his game” mentality is starting to come back and bite us in the ass.
"Do you see my fist? It was fists like these that built quaint Canadian cities out of the harsh Canadian wilderness, etc. etc."
Not in Seattle anymore.
when have his goals been scored?
I think it would be pretty easy for someone to dig up the information of how long into his shift Ovechkin has been when he scores his goals. Just over the last two years
how many have been scored in the first 10 seconds of a shift?
how many from 10 to 20 seconds into the shift?
how many from 20 to 30 seconds into the shift? …and so on
How about when the goals against with him on the ice have come?
I am willing to bet that over two years, the statistics reveal that his optimum shift length is between 50 seconds and 1 minute. Once you start charting this, you have some empirical data with which you could go to Alex and say look, over the last two years, we’ve tracked you shift by shift, and the facts are that you are at optimum efficiency when your shifts are between 50 seconds and 1 minute. We’ve found that you are most likely to score goals with shifts of this duration, and far more likely to be on the ice for a goal against when you take longer shifts. If he doesn’t get that, (I can’t imagine he wouldn’t – he loves to score goals, and he loves to win), maybe that “C” has been misplaced.
by shotfromthepoint on Oct 23, 2010 5:06 PM EDT reply actions
Sounds as if you have already reached your conclusion.
It would be great if you did the analysis. I would be interested in your findings. However, you need additional questions to get a better sense of the big picture: for example how many longer shifts are in OT, how many are on a PP where he is on the point, how many of these longer shifts have television breaks etc. in them, how does the shift lengths vary during the three periods, and how often do the shift lengths increase in the third if the team is behind versus ahead.
Personally, I agree that his shift lengths need to be reigned in (and I think they were in the Thrasher’s game) but I also would not be surprised to find a fair number of game winners on his longer shifts. I don’t think it’s as easy as saying
maybe that "C" has been misplaced
Alright, confess-how many goals are you going to make this year?
"I'm not going to tell!"
Well can you at least guarantee fifty?
"No way. I have a different objective. To win."
by capsyoungguns on Oct 24, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
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