Assessing Today's Trades
by D'ohboy on Jan 31, 2010 11:37 PM EST
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PrintWho got the better of today's trades based on the contributions of the players involved and their salaries? More below the jump...
Edit: For those not familiar with GVT, it stands for "Goals Versus Threshold" and is an advanced metric developed by Tom Awad of Puck Prospectus that gives us a common measurement of total contribution of all players, regardless of position. For more on GVT, follow this link.
Calgary received:
- Ian White: 7.7 GVT, $850K (RFA)
- Niklas Hagman: 6.4 GVT, $3m
- Matt Stajan: 6.3 GVT, $1.75m (UFA)
- Jamal Mayers: -.2 GVT $1.33m (UFA)
- Total: 20.2GVT, $6.93m cap hit
Toronto received:
- Dion Phaneuf: 5.0 GVT, $6.5m
- Fredrik Sjostrom: .2 GVT, $750k
- Keith Aulie: ?/$733k (No cap hit, since playing in CHL)
- Total: 5.2 GVT, $7.275 cap hit
On the face of this, Toronto got ripped off. Considering the expiring contracts of both Stajan and Mayers, however, this trade should really be considered Phaneuf, Sjostrom and Aulie for White and Hagman. Presumably, the Leafs were anticipating that White would require a hefty raise and they weren't convinced he would be as valuable at a higher cap hit.
Given the GVT/$ numbers, this trade clearly favors the Flames in the short run (and in the long run, we're all dead). The long-term "winner" of this trade will depend heavily on two factors. First, is Phaneuf the #1 defenseman/Scott Stevens clone that people thought he was when he broke into the league, or is he the guy whose defensive deficiencies caused him to lose about 3 minutes of ice time/game to Bouwmeester? Second, how good will Aulie be? Given his size and WHL background, will he be another Braydon Coburn? Or, more likely, will he be another Matt Walker? (Anyone who's seen Aulie play, feel free to chime in - I only saw him in the WJHC two years ago.)
Toronto Received:
- Jean-Sebastien Giguere: -2.4 GVT, $6m
Anaheim Received:
- Jason Blake: 3.4 GVT, $4m
- Vesa Toskala: -15.0 GVT, $4m (UFA)
- Total: 11.6 GVT, $8m cap hit
This trade seems a little more even. Anaheim gets rid of a troublesome contract and picks up a guy in Blake who can join up with Todd Marchant and Dan Sexton to make a "goofy-looking, ridiculously-fast, short American" line. What team doesn't need that in their arsenal?
This trade really boils down to Burke's confidence that Giguere can turn his game around in Toronto. I see this as a similar trade to the one that Colorado made for Jose Theodore in 05-06. The Leafs aren't really giving up much (they're actually gaining some cap freedom two years out), and they're picking up a former Conn Smythe and Stanley Cup-winning goalie who can't possibly be as bad as Toskala. . . Can he?
PS - Once the Jokinen-Kotalik trade becomes official, I'll add that on here. It's been on-again/off-again since last night.
If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.
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TSN: Kotalik, Higgins to Calgary/Jokinen, Prust to Rangers
The tradin’ ain’t over yet. Though LeBrun says there may be some kinks.
that deal is out of LF – and makes the most sense for the Rangers in dumping two dead-weights. I suppose it makes sense for Calgary since Jokinen hasn’t done anything there and Prust has now been displaced by Mayers. If nothing else, it should make Calgary’s ST better (Kotalik as point on PP and Higgins on PK). For NY, if the two dont work out then it’s still a smart salary dump. … In the end, I like all of Calgary’s moves as they kept the core in tact while possibly adding a top 4 dman and an entirely new second line (resigning stajan should be fairly affordable too).
"...I got the most gentlemanly player in juniors my last year. I'm a gentleman, always a gentleman." - Matt Bradley, 1/20/10
On the surface I think this trade helps everyone here for the most part. If the ducks think Hiller can handle the load for the most part the difference between Toskala and JSG souldn’t matter for this season(seems like they are figuring they won’t make the playoffs) and can sign a better backup in the offseason. For Toronto JSG can bring some valuable advice I assume for monster and will help him develop and take the reigns over the next few years.
On the other trade I have no clue how this will turn out and a lot depends on how Phaneuf can play and develop in Toronto. It really seems like this slump has frightened Calgary (as it should have) and should be interesting to see how this trade mixes things up. Gonna be fun to see how this thing develops into the future.
"Ovechkin is as subtle as a shot of vodka."
This isn’t a slump any more. This is just a guy that didn’t develop as projected. When he was playing with boys in Juniors he looked like the next great thing. But he was feasting on having a physically superior body and not having to learn how to play his position. He still hasn’t learned so despite his ridiculous physical talent he’s just not becoming the player everyone thought he’d be. The “slump” has been going on for like 2 years, at least. You could argue it’s been all downhill since his rookie year.
Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.
I agree that Phaneuf is overrated, but I’m not willing to write him off just yet – he’s only 24. He just seems older because he’s been around forever. . .
I think Burke has taken a calculated risk, and in his position, I’d probably do the same (except maybe I wouldn’t have traded White). Kaberle’s gone after this year and he might still waive his no-trade clause, so this leaves Burke with a #1 PP guy.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
First, is Phaneuf the #1 defenseman/Scott Stevens clone that people thought he was when he broke into the league, or is he the guy whose defensive deficiencies caused him to lose about 3 minutes of ice time/game to Bouwmeester?
I really see this as the crux of the trade. Very much a move in the mold of the Kessel trade – high risk, high reward for a player that Burke thinks has the potential to be a top unit guy. Maybe the Leafs front office thinks that Phaneuf will mature into a better defensive game in a couple of years with the right coaching, maybe they just think he needs a change of scenery. Phaneuf is still on the young side of his 20s, there’s still room for him to learn the game and change his playstyle. Like I said in the other thread, Lord knows he’s got the physical tools to play an elite game, his limiting factor is his decision making.
If they didn’t believe Dion could turn it around, Ian White for Phaneuf straight-up is a bad trade for TOR, White was their best defensman by some of the advanced metrics, especially on the PK. Phaneuf had better pan out really well, in fact. The last TOR needs to do is make their PK unit worse. Getting the bubonic plague ranks higher on their to do list.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jan 31, 2010 11:54 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I’ll just point out that while Phaneuf is still young, he already has over 300 games in the NHL. Traditionally that means he should have figured out how to play his game and be successful at the NHL level. He hasn’t.
Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.
I have come out and criticized the Leafs for the Phaneuf trade earlier: Phaneuf is overpaid and overrated and I think even with whatever raise he gets this summer White is a better value than Phaneuf then add in the scoring depth Calgary gets makes this a great trade on their part.
But thinking about it more I think this is a better move for Toronto than I originally thought. Stajan, Hagman and Mayers clearly aren’t in the long term plan for the Leafs so White is the only valuable rebuild commodity they gave up. And while Phaneuf is overpaid, he is signed for several years. Plus, he gives the Leafs a good goal scoring threat from the blueline to compliment some of their more defensive Dmen in Komisarek, Beauchemin, and Schenn. So even if Phaneuf doesn’t become the next Scott Stevens, his O helps bring something to the Leafs that their D has been missing.
I still think that Calgary got the better end of the deal, but I don’t think Toronto is as bad off as I first thought. They got Phaneuf and Kessel locked up for a while (albeit for too much money for each of them), so there are worse situations to be in heading into a rebuild.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
I had the same initial reaction you did, until I looked at the contract statuses of the players involved. If you figure that White will command a raise somewhere north of $2.5m, then suddenly, he’s not the “bargain player” he’s been for the last few years.
I like White as a player and I think Phaneuf is massively overrated, but I still think Phaneuf has more upside. I think this is Burke betting that White will garner a good chunk of change as an RFA and that Phaneuf will benefit from being the #1 guy again. It’s risky, but it’s not as bad as it looked on the face of it.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
Phaneuf...
Overpaid and overrated, but definitely an exciting player to watch. I’m happy to see more of him, quite honestly.
Tic Tac Toe Hockey -- Original Caps Photography For Those With Significantly Compromised Standards
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by turnituptoeleven on Feb 1, 2010 6:53 AM EST reply actions
With this flurry of movement, does anyone else feel like this is the beginning of the dominoe’s falling? i.e. can we expect other teams to pull the trigger soon too? It makes sense to do so right before the Olympic break for 2 reasons; 1) any newly acquired players will get two weeks of work/practice with their new teams / lines / etc. 2) After the Olympic break, there are only 3 NHL days before the deadline.
Are the caps going to pull the trigger for Jackman? With all the StL rumors, i can foresee the Caps working on a Jackman + Tkachuk for Fehr + defenseman not named Green, Alzner, Carlson + prospect + pick…. Then again, the old adage in folling the undertaker GMGM’s moves is “where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire 2,000 miles away completely unforeseen”
"...I got the most gentlemanly player in juniors my last year. I'm a gentleman, always a gentleman." - Matt Bradley, 1/20/10
I wouldn’t mind picking up Jackman, but I don’t think we need or want Tkachuk. It’s all going to come down to the price, probably.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
yeah. the core of the deal is acquiring Jackman. I drool thinking about a Green-Jackman pairing. … I just thought Tkachuk would be a nice throw-in to replace Fehr (if he were part of the deal going to StL) as the RW on the 3rd line, provide a bit more ‘grit’ this team seems to miss here and there, leadership who’s won before, flexible position wise if someone were to get hurt (think center), and is a FA this offseason so saying bye-bye doesn’t hurt. Steen is a nice fallback too, but he’s a FA this offseason and I’m afraid of being dupped into advocating for resigning him. … I realize this is all speculation but i am just trying to make sense of the smoke from the past week or so.
"...I got the most gentlemanly player in juniors my last year. I'm a gentleman, always a gentleman." - Matt Bradley, 1/20/10
Given the Caps’ depth and the current chemistry on the team, I’d be shocked to see any of the NHL roster head out in a trade, unless it’s Pothier or Morrisonn – who are both likely leaving at the end of the year anyhow. Maybe I could see Fehr getting traded, but with the way the 3rd line has been playing. . .
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
Giguere for Toskalol and J Blake was a great move for TOR. That makes two bums in between the pipes Burke has dumped on the Ducks in a year. Savvy. Giguere will be a good mentor for JGus. Blake is not an impressive top 6 guy; more like a bottom 6 guy…flat out win for TOR.
Phaneuf + for Hagman, Stajan and White does look pretty heavily weighted to Calgary’s benefit but as I mentioned yesterday, that top 6 D corps for TOR is very respectable…Win for Calgary in the short term, but I like the new look in Tronna.
Driving under the influence of hockey since godknow's when.
It was really nice of Brian Burke to send Blake somewhere where he can get a nice natural tan.
(I can’t believe it took me/the Rink so long for this comment to come out)
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
Recall that Blake started his career with the Kings…didn’t seem to help. Somewhat related, in talking about the trade to ANA, one of the guys I play hockey with was a long time ‘Stretch’ equivalent in LA, and remarked that Blake was the whitest white man he’d ever seen.
Driving under the influence of hockey since godknow's when.
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