Daydreaming, Part Two
by Stephen Pepper on Jan 29, 2010 11:00 AM EST
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PrintFirst, let me reiterate that, still,"we haven't won anything yet." We, rather, the Washington Capitals, haven't. Not even the 2009-10 Southeast Division crown. (Which would be the third consecutive division title for the club. Oh, were the Caps denizens of a competitive division again.) A usurping of the "NASCAR Division" throne by Florida or Atlanta is still mathematically possible. Whatever.
The comparison of Washington's monoliths of offense this season to the Edmonton Oilers of the early 1980's, as suggested in October, remains valid. Especially now that the team has earned a 9-1 record over its last ten and averaged 5.3 goals per game during that span. Most recently, Butch Goring made a favorable comparison of the two during the MSG Plus broadcast of Tuesday's game on the Island. And he would be one to know -- the legendary pivot for the dynastic Islanders of that same period, that passed the torch on to Wayne Gretzky's bunch in the City of Champions.
Already, the Caps are on a 118 point pace, have three legitimate scoring lines, and nine players with double digit goal totals with 29 games to go. And they are the only NHL team to date which has scored over 200 goals, an average of 3.83 per game. That G/G pace would definitively make this team's offense the most prolific one since the lockout.
So I'm going to revisit our earlier post on the subject and assess just how close this team is to what we might call the gold standard of offensive dominance.
Again, we'll compare the "adjusted stats" of the top ten scorers of the current crop of Caps (using on-pace 2009-10 season figures) and those of the top ten point getters on the '83-'84 Oilers (the team that won the first of the four Oilers' championships during that decade). As before, adjusted stats seek to "account for different schedule lengths, roster sizes, and scoring environments."
1983-84 Edmonton Oilers Top Ten (Adjusted) Scorers
| Player | Pos. | GP | G | A | PTS |
| Wayne Gretzky | C | 74 | 69 | 94 | 163 |
| Paul Coffey | D | 80 | 31 | 69 | 100 |
| Jari Kurri | RW | 64 | 41 | 49 | 90 |
| Mark Messier | C | 73 | 29 | 51 | 80 |
| Glenn Anderson | RW | 80 | 33 | 31 | 64 |
| Ken Linseman | C | 72 | 14 | 39 | 53 |
| Pat Hughes | RW | 77 | 21 | 22 | 43 |
| Dave Hunter | LW | 80 | 17 | 21 | 38 |
| Kevin Lowe | D | 80 | 3 | 33 | 36 |
| Charlie Huddy | D | 75 | 6 | 27 | 33 |
| Totals | 264 | 436 | 700 |
2009-10 Washington Capitals Top Ten (Adjusted) Scorers
(projected over an 82 game schedule)
| Player | Pos. | GP | G | A | PTS |
| Alex Ovechkin | LW | 70 | 58 | 63 | 121 |
| Nicklas Backstrom | C | 82 | 36 | 60 | 96 |
| Alexander Semin | LW / RW |
68 | 42 | 45 | 87 |
| Mike Green | D | 79 | 20 | 63 | 83 |
| Brooks Laich | F | 82 | 25 | 36 | 61 |
| Tomas Fleischmann | F | 65 | 29 | 31 | 60 |
| Brendan Morrison | C | 82 | 19 | 32 | 51 |
| Mike Knuble |
RW | 63 | 27 | 23 | 50 |
| Eric Fehr | RW | 65 | 24 | 23 | 47 |
| Matt Bradley |
Cult Hero | 79 | 13 | 15 | 28 |
| Totals | 293 | 391 | 684 |
The numbers speak for themselves.
Look, I'm not trying to say that the Cup is ours without a fight. As San Jose Sharks fans know all too well (and as we always say here), Regular Season Means [Franceschetti]. But it's worth stopping to reflect, amidst all the individual performances, highlights, and box scores, what an incredible season it is that we are watching unfold. The 35th season of the franchise is, up to this point, it's best ever, as great as our reasonably optimistic hopes could foresee.
And the best, dare we say, is still yet to come.
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busted out laughing here at work!
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
On Draper having to wear a USA jersey at practice: "well at least the Wings can settle bets without involving gold plated desert eagles!"
ha you and me both. Great work Stephen.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Jan 29, 2010 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
Assists
I wonder if they were more generous with assists back then without all the replay evidence.
no clue. But the Oliers had 1.65 assists per goal, while the Caps have 1.33. or maybe the Caps are just exceptionally good at scoring unassisted?
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
On Draper having to wear a USA jersey at practice: "well at least the Wings can settle bets without involving gold plated desert eagles!"
When I first saw the headline “Daydreaming, part two” I thought it was going to be an article on how the Caps will acquire Barrett Jackman at the deadline and then sign Anton Volchenkov in the off-season (after we resign Backs and Falsh, of course) so our d-corp next year and the next several will be Green-Jackman, Volchenkov-Schultz, Alzner-Carlson with Erskine and Sloan on off the bench (yes I know we have Poti signed thru next year but maybe he’ll be a part of the Jackman deal?). …. At least that’s what I’m daydreaming about.
"...I got the most gentlemanly player in juniors my last year. I'm a gentleman, always a gentleman." - Matt Bradley, 1/20/10
Gretzky’s numbers are obscene, even adjusted. Jesus.
"Now wait a minute. This is just purely a social call. You know, just two adults getting a stew on, man."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Jan 29, 2010 11:57 AM EST reply actions
My exact thoughts. 163 points is out of control. FWIW, I don’t think that the mid-80’s Gretzky would put that point total up in today’s NHL – too small, and with the way the game was officiated in that era, he basically played contact-free.
But what do I know, maybe he would.
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
Also too slow
but he could play contact free now too with the way the game is officiated. Also, no red line, smaller goalie pads (though pads were smaller then before they got real big), and his “office” is bigger.
Obstreperously Avatarless
Gretz too slow? Dunno about that one.
And everyone gets hit now. Back then, there was an unofficial but well know policy: don’t hit Gretzky. If you did, it was either a penalty or Semenko made you wish you’d never been born.
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
His problem would have been that teams actually play defense now and more goalies actually know what they are doing. His skills would still be second to none, he just wouldn’t have the same stats.
Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.
Yeah, that’s the whole “era adjustment” thing. Which, if I recall correctly, just depreciates scoring for individuals in proportion to scoring from the rest of the league.
I just think he’d fare worse than even his adjusted numbers.
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
Frankly, I think he’d have Crosby numbers, buying or selling the argument that Crosby’s better equipped for today’s game than Gretz ever was. I think his talent alone gets him to 100, though.
by DrinkingPartner on Jan 29, 2010 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
He would prolly have better numbers. . .that season was the perfect environment for him to get points. Virtually all of the team’s offense went through him, he had an amazing supporting cast, goalies didnt know what was up, and the game was flat out different.
There are so many variables to deal with, including those below me that K_Carlson pointed out, making comparisons with such a large time differential is impossible
Still waiting for someone to draft Paul Newman. . .
Plus, if you are going to assume that Gretzky’s totals are hurt by improvements in D and goaltending, you also have to consider how he would benefit from improvements in stick/equipment technology and the conditioning and strength training of current players.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Jan 29, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
Agree wholeheartedly with this one. Wayne Gretzky would look physically different if he were playing today. He’d be stronger, more muscular. Think of Flash — he seems skinny when he’s out there, but then you see his body and realize he’s stronger through the core than any one of us. Gretzky looked like a regular human being. He wouldn’t today.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jan 29, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
Here’s a question — which would you rather have on your team, in today’s NHL game?
Gretzky in his prime, or today’s Ovechkin?
by Stephen Pepper on Jan 29, 2010 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
gO pEnGuInS!!
In all seriousness though, Ovechkin. Although Gretzky is the most ellusive, offensive weapon that NHL will prolly ever see, he would have to change his game alot in todays NHL. He was like 6 foot 187 when he played. That is about Brendan Morrison size.
He would have BMo’s size and a playing style similar to Crosby. He would get THROWN around in the modern NHL.
Still waiting for someone to draft Paul Newman. . .
B.Mo is actually smaller than that! But, yes, your point stands. 6 foot, under 200 pounds, that’s not a recipe for superstar success in today’s NHL.
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
On Draper having to wear a USA jersey at practice: "well at least the Wings can settle bets without involving gold plated desert eagles!"
That was my thought too — about Gretzky’s size in today’s game — that perhaps made it a bit of a closer question.
by Stephen Pepper on Jan 30, 2010 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
Here’s a question — which would you rather have on your team, in today’s NHL game?
Gretzky in his prime, or today’s Ovechkin?
Easy one for me — Gretzky. Think Nick Backstrom with Alex Semin’s skills with the puck. Gretzky was better than that.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jan 29, 2010 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Ask me again in 10 years…but right now, I’d say Ovie. Of course, I am a bit biased though, and currently seeing the world through red-tinted glasses.
"I am ready for his provocations"
by PaintDrinkingPete on Jan 29, 2010 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
Gretzky beyond doubt. I still don’t think his vision has ever been matched in the NHL or will be for a long time. He thought the game better than anyone before or since and he had magical hands and a dirty shot.
Also, generally speaking center is a more important position than wing, unless you’re talking about a very good center versus an elite wing, like Ovechkin or Gaborik. Gretzky was the best center to ever play the game of hockey, arguably the best player to ever play. The only guy I can see holding a candle to Wayne in that conversation is Bobby Orr, but his knees kept him from taking that title, in my opinion. Mario also has to be there, but injuries popped up again and prevented him from making a serious challenge for the all-time greatest status.
If Ovechkin keeps up, he has the opportunity to have his name become synonymous with greatness on the left wing, supplanting Bobby Hull as the most accomplished at that position. This is no small feat and I do think that Alex is the best player in the game right now. What I don’t think is that he’s quite good enough to get into the conversation with 66, 4, and 99.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jan 29, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Bad math
Stephen — I don’t understand your math: “Already, the Caps are on a 118 point pace” you say above.
However, if my math is correct, 118 isn’t even close:
53 games played and 76 points
29 games remaining x 2 points each game = 58 points
76 + 58 = 134
Do you think I’m wrong in extrapolating from only the last 8 games played in my calculation? Can Washington really ever lose again?
Seriously, though, that’s an interesting comparison. That team is still, in my mind, the greatest assemblage of talent in hockey history, although some Habs fans from the ‘50s/’60s may disagree. I would argue that it was a different game back then. But our current Caps squad is DEEP, based on your analysis. Mucho Excitingo.
Coffey, Kurri, and Anderson, (Lowe soon?) were not future HoFers at that point. Gretzky was already and Messier was well on his way. So, what does that say about our young squad? Also, I had forgotten that Ken Linseman was a part of that team — I only associate him with the Flyers since that was my prime card collecting period. I’m going to argue for 4 legit potential HoFers in the obvious Green, Backstrom, Semin, and Ovechkin. Does anyone else surprise us 20 years hence?
I think that 118 is correct:
76 points in 53 games is 1.434 pts/game.
Multiplied by 82 games is about 118 points
Don't vorry. Zat's just ze power of ze arts!
Woah...
Don’t curse us, man. What is the highest points total in Caps history.
I think Laich and Flash have a very outside chance if they keep progressing the way they are.
What's ya major, dude?
Those are the two that I had on my outside-shot list, as well. A bulked up, grittier Flash is a really good long-term NHLer. Kind of like Laich with more natural scoring ability. If he un-Euros himself (read: more Knuble/Guerin, less Semin) and keeps on the path he went down this season, he’s a keeper.
I’m touching wood all the time
Yes, Bruce is still struggling with his eloquence. Maybe GMU has a public speaking course he can audit.
I know this was meant to be snarky, but I believe that to “touch wood” IS a legit version of knock on wood, I’ve heard it a lot.
PuckDaddy be damned, I'm putting CincoCinco on the back of a Schultz jersey!
by Chris meet Alex on Jan 29, 2010 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
With 14 assists in 45 games that year...
… what do goalie Grant Fuhr’s adjusted stats look like?
Good job SP
For every action, there is an equal and opposite criticism.
by Rather Bengt on Jan 29, 2010 1:30 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
By my math, Ovie should finish the season with 74 games played, not the 70 in this chart. I understand where you came up with that number ( 8 games missed through 2/3 of the season equals 4 games missed in the last 1/3), but as long as we’re daydreaming that the Caps are going to continue their torrid scoring pace, can we also daydream that the rest of the season won’t see any more missed time from anyone? In which case the numbers look like this:
Ovechkin – 74 GP, 61 G, 66 A, 127 Pts
Backstrom – 82 GP, 36 G, 60 A, 96 Pts
Semin – 73 GP, 45 G, 48 A, 93 Pts
Green – 80 GP, 20 G, 64 A, 84 Pts
Fleischmann – 71 GP, 31 G, 33 A, 64 Pts
Laich – 82 GP, 25 G, 36 A, 61 Pts
Knuble – 70 GP, 30 G, 25 A, 55 Pts
Fehr – 71 GP, 26 G, 25 A, 51 Pts
Morrison – 82 GP, 19 G, 32 A, 51 Pts
Bradley – 80 GP, 13 G, 15 A, 28 Pts
TOTAL – 306 G, 404 A, 710 Pts
Wow...
So far, a lot of our guys appear to be on track for career years, then… check this out!
Ovechkin – career high: 65 G, 54 A
Backstrom – career high: 22 G, 66 A
Semin – career high: 38 G, 45 A
Green – career high: 31 G, 42 A
Fleischmann – career high: 19 G, 20 A
Laich – career high: 23 G, 30 A
Knuble – career high: 34 G, 31 A
Fehr – career high: 14 G, 14 A
Morrison – career high: 25 G, 46 A
Bradley – career high: 9 G, 13 A
And the guys not listed:
Chimera – career high: 17 G, 21 A – current: 11 G, 15 A – projected: 17 G, 23 A
Gordon – career high: 7 G, 22 A (in 71 GP) – he’s only played 19 of 53 games, though…
Laing – career high: 2 G (so far), 0 A (this season!)
Steckel – career high: 8 G, 11 A – current: 4 G, 5 A – projected: 6 G, 7 A
I need a snappy signature...
Steckel can take solace in the fact that he’ll probably set a new career high for FO%, and he has a legit shot at finishing #1 in that category.
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
On Draper having to wear a USA jersey at practice: "well at least the Wings can settle bets without involving gold plated desert eagles!"
You should have bolded Laich.
Game-Over Green? Canada-Over Carlson!
by Scott in Shaw on Jan 29, 2010 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
Wow, pretty surprised that Ovie and Green are projected to finish with more assists than Backie.
When you dance with the devil, you wait for the song to stop.
Fun Fact
Ovechkin is the only player in the NHL to be in the top 5 in goals, assists, and points. Pretty impressive for a selfish puck hog who has missed 8 games this season.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Jan 29, 2010 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Ovi never had a Knuble before. Lars is like one or two goals away from his season total from last year. And Green needs to shoot more in the PP. (I’ll make sure to yell that, loudly, at the next game I go to.)
IS KEPTIN NOW
Didn’t the “Ovie go to the net” experiment not work out well?
Everyone wants to kill the king. But the prince, he just sails along telling all the ladies, "One day I'm gonna be king."
by Steck It Out on Jan 29, 2010 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
What’s more interesting to me is not total goals scored, but the Caps’ domination of games. There was a post earlier this year (which I can’t find) that said something like 70% of all time in NHL games is played tied or within 1 goal. Watching the Caps over the last few years, that didn’t come as a surprise, games always seemed close. But I think this year the Caps have blown that metric out of the water.
Whether or not the Caps could compete with the 83-84 Oilers is a fun thoughtgame. But whether or not the rest of the 09-10 league can compete on a nightly basis with the 09-10 Caps is a question for the here and now.
Can anyone run the numbers and see how far from that average the Caps are this year, and especially over the last couple months?
The Caps at the top of their game can be stopped by no team!! But seriously, they can’t. The amount of skill on the team has the potential to completely dominate all teams, even a peaking blackhawks, san jose, or new jersey team.
The only way those teams can beat us is if they, somehow, change the our game, or create an environment on the ice where the caps can’t execute the highly skilled game plan they use. However, the caps have proven, in many of the tight games lately, that there is such a different offensive look/capacity to most of the lines that they can turn their skill game of ‘high risk/high reward’ game into a pseudo skill based/nitty-gritty/moose in the goal mouth/ ‘medium risk/ medium-high reward’ that wins close games
Still waiting for someone to draft Paul Newman. . .
Devils.
Skilled speedy players trapping is the only way to slow down the caps.
They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown.
Agreed. To me, they represent the biggest threat to the Caps making a SCF appearance.
by Stephen Pepper on Jan 30, 2010 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
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