FanPost

"Expected Points" per D'ohboy's Theorem

For all three of you who I haven't yet bored to death with Excel and math, after the break will be my breakdown of the current standings according to Expected Points per what I'm calling "D'ohboy's Theorem." I'll also include the same table using my original theorem that used PP, PK and 5v5.

The following table is the current NHL "Expected Points" according to "D'ohboy's Theorem," which is:

Expected Points = (1.1134)*GP + Goal Differential/2.645

2009 -2010
Team GP GF GA Diff Pts Expected Pts Actual
SJS 53 179 128 51 78.29960579 78
CHI 53 174 122 52 78.67781423 76
WSH 53 207 146 61 82.08169014 76
NJD 52 139 115 24 66.97456341 70
BUF 52 147 126 21 65.83993811 69
VAN 53 173 129 44 75.65214675 68
PIT 55 173 156 17 67.66734827 67
COL 51 153 136 17 63.21368974 66
LAK 53 160 147 13 63.92768526 65
PHX 53 144 139 5 60.90201778 65
OTT 55 154 155 -1 60.85959644 64
NSH 52 145 145 0 57.89756098 61
CGY 53 135 138 -3 57.8763503 59
DET 53 137 143 -6 56.741725 59
DAL 53 152 171 -19 51.82501535 57
MIN 53 150 158 -8 55.98530813 56
PHI 51 155 144 11 60.94443913 55
FLA 53 146 154 -8 55.98530813 55
NYR 54 138 150 -12 55.58588902 55
ANA 54 150 171 -21 52.18201311 55
MTL 55 141 149 -8 58.2121374 55
BOS 51 127 131 -4 55.2713126 54
ATL 52 158 167 -9 54.49368506 54
TBL 52 135 157 -22 49.57697541 54
STL 53 139 149 -10 55.22889126 54
NYI 54 142 168 -26 50.29097094 54
CBJ 56 146 186 -40 47.22288211 51
TOR 54 142 187 -45 43.10501067 44
CAR 53 141 174 -33 46.53009726 43
EDM 51 135 176 -41 41.27760051 38

 

The following is a rating system based on the following equation: (PP+PK)^2+3*(5v5^2):

 

2009 -2010
Team Points PP PK ST 5v5
SJS 78 0.216 0.878 1.094 1.37 6.827536
CHI 76 0.213 0.856 1.069 1.28 6.057961
WSH 76 0.261 0.803 1.064 1.56 8.432896
NJD 70 0.192 0.826 1.018 1.08 4.535524
BUF 69 0.183 0.871 1.054 1.09 4.675216
VAN 68 0.22 0.816 1.036 1.39 6.869596
PIT 67 0.162 0.829 0.991 1.15 4.949581
COL 66 0.186 0.817 1.003 1.16 5.042809
PHX 65 0.171 0.825 0.996 1.12 4.755216
LAK 65 0.185 0.796 0.981 1 3.962361
OTT 64 0.149 0.84 0.989 0.93 3.572821
NSH 61 0.158 0.773 0.931 1.01 3.927061
DET 59 0.174 0.804 0.978 0.92 3.495684
CGY 59 0.167 0.832 0.999 0.98 3.879201
DAL 57 0.186 0.753 0.939 0.93 3.476421
MIN 56 0.175 0.828 1.003 0.94 3.656809
ATL 56 0.175 0.802 0.977 0.97 3.777229
MTL 55 0.247 0.842 1.089 0.79 3.058221
NYR 55 0.181 0.845 1.026 0.97 3.875376
ANA 55 0.186 0.801 0.987 0.94 3.624969
FLA 55 0.168 0.805 0.973 0.96 3.711529
PHI 55 0.231 0.798 1.029 1.06 4.429641
NYI 54 0.163 0.75 0.913 0.83 2.900269
STL 53 0.162 0.849 1.011 0.95 3.729621
TBL 54 0.195 0.799 0.994 0.86 3.206836
BOS 54 0.174 0.874 1.048 0.89 3.474604
CBJ 51 0.204 0.821 1.025 0.72 2.605825
TOR 44 0.165 0.694 0.859 0.96 3.502681
CAR 43 0.181 0.794 0.975 0.81 2.918925
EDM 38 0.192 0.739 0.931 0.82 2.883961

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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