FanPost

First Attempt at Hockey Pythagorean Theorem



After the jump is my first attempt at creating a "Pythagorean Theorem" for hockey.

This is intended as a "bogey" for others to shoot at, since I have little to no actual statistical training. It's literally what I came up with between coming home at 6pm and reading fat_daddyo's post below and the start of the Caps game. Hopefully, others of a more statistical/mathematical bent can use this as a jumping-off point.

 

Here's the "theorem:" (PP% + PK%) + (3*5v5 Ratio) = Total

The sum of the special teams percentages accounts for teams. . . special teams play (duh). I originally tried multiplying this by the 5v5 ratio, but I decided I didn't like that. I then eyeballed the ratio of 5v5 to PP goals and it is, on average, about 3, hence the reason that I weight 5v5 by 3.

As you can see below, it matches points totals pretty well. Moreover, the "outliers" are pretty much expected. NSH, OTT and MTL are over-performing, while ANA, PHI, NYR are under-performing.

Feedback is most welcome, I just wanted to get the ball rolling.

Team

Points

PP

PK

Sum

5v5

Total

SJS

78

0.216

0.878

1.094

1.37

5.204

CHI

74

0.21

0.856

1.066

1.27

4.876

WSH

72

0.26

0.801

1.061

1.48

5.501

NJD

69

0.194

0.822

1.016

1.12

4.376

PIT

67

0.164

0.827

0.991

1.15

4.441

BUF

67

0.184

0.87

1.054

1.09

4.324

VAN

66

0.22

0.819

1.039

1.38

5.179

COL

66

0.186

0.817

1.003

1.16

4.483

PHX

63

0.165

0.827

0.992

1.14

4.412

LAK

61

0.18

0.792

0.972

1

3.972

NSH

61

0.161

0.774

0.935

1.01

3.965

OTT

60

0.153

0.837

0.99

0.9

3.69

CGY

58

0.159

0.832

0.991

0.99

3.961

DET

58

0.174

0.815

0.989

0.91

3.719

MTL

55

0.247

0.843

1.09

0.82

3.55

NYR

55

0.185

0.847

1.032

1

4.032

DAL

55

0.185

0.759

0.944

0.92

3.704

ANA

55

0.192

0.802

0.994

0.97

3.904

PHI

55

0.234

0.794

1.028

1.06

4.208

NYI

54

0.164

0.754

0.918

0.87

3.528

MIN

54

0.17

0.826

0.996

0.94

3.816

STL

54

0.159

0.85

1.009

0.96

3.889

BOS

54

0.174

0.874

1.048

0.89

3.718

FLA

53

0.169

0.81

0.979

0.95

3.829

ATL

52

0.177

0.795

0.972

0.97

3.882

TBL

52

0.193

0.796

0.989

0.84

3.509

CBJ

49

0.206

0.82

1.026

0.71

3.156

TOR

44

0.166

0.696

0.862

0.96

3.742

CAR

39

0.178

0.788

0.966

0.78

3.306

EDM

38

0.192

0.741

0.933

0.83

3.423

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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