The Alex Semin We Know and Love
by David Getz on Jan 26, 2010 2:30 PM EST
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PrintIt's not exactly a secret that Alexander Semin is immensely talented and generally productive, yet inconsistent and injury prone. It's also not exactly a secret that Semin inspires as much heated debate as any other Capitals player. Discussion of Semin's value, be it comparing the positives in his game to the negatives, debating his market value, discussing how he fits in to the team's long-term plans, or even considering whether he should be used as trade bait have been fairly commonplace this season, though they quieted when Semin missed time in November with an injury, and have stayed quiet as the Caps succeed on the ice. While that has meant less discussion of the winger's shortcomings, it also means that not all that much discussion has been paid to the fact that Semin has been playing really, really well recently.
The low point for Semin came in an early November loss to the Devils in which he, as J.P. noted, "waited until the 3:19 mark of the third period to register his first shot on goal of the game, ended with just three, and took three separate offensive-zone stick penalties." Although Semin helped make up for his poor performance a couple nights later, recording two goals against the Islanders, he continued to struggle until he was shut down on November 15th. Given the injury, and the run of mediocre-to-poor performances, looking at how Sasha's played since returning to the lineup on December 3rd seems fair.
The numbers tell the story:
Simply put, the offensive production is outstanding, no matter how you look at it. Goals, assists, powerplay production (without using it as a means to pad stats to the point where they're misleading), shots on goal - no matter what you need in the way of offensive production, Sasha can provide it. But then, Semin's talent has never been in dispute, nor has his ability to put up gaudy numbers. The questions have always been consistency and penalties. Has he been addressing those issues?
The short answer is 'somewhat' . In the twenty-four games since returning from his wrist injury, Semin has had only one instance of back-to-back point-less games and has failed to register a point eight times. Coming up empty on the scoresheet 1/3 of the time might seem like a lot, but it compares favorably to many of the NHL's best offensive players, including Sidney Crosby (34% of games), Marian Gaborik (31.4%), and Ilya Kovalchuk (33.3%) - though it also represents a decline from last season, when Semin only failed to score in 28.5% of his outings. As for the penalties - 48 penalty minutes over an 82 game season is a little high when you consider that Semin's a wing and that he's not taking very many physical penalties. That said, a 0.59 penalty minute per game rate would be the best of Semin's career.
The overall verdict? A 24 game sample isn't enough to draw any major conclusions, and Semin's weaknesses are still his weaknesses. But that doesn't mean there isn't a legitimate reason for fans to be encouraged by Semin's recent play, or even that it's only a matter of time before he regresses.
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How many games before we can say that he has, in fact turned the corner? (I for one remain unconvinced, as over that stretch the Caps have been pretty good, especially recently)
Ovechkin = Green Backs
More than 24...
He’s given us almost two months of excellent work. He began last year in a similar fashion.
Having said that, he’s definitely toned down the penalties, and seems to be trying more consistently. I think being on a line with Flash and Laich helps a lot because Laich never takes a shift off, Flash rarely does when paired with Laich, and it feels like Semin has been following suit. I don’t recall any listless Semin shifts of late.
Here’s praying it last through the playoffs! Especially the health since he’s a fragile kind of panther.
I think being on a line with Flash and Laich helps a lot because Laich never takes a shift off, Flash rarely does when paired with Laich, and it feels like Semin has been following suit.
I would have to agree with this wholeheartedly.
I need a snappy signature...
Flash and Laich are leading by an example Backstrom and Ovechkin didn’t set? I don’t know. Maybe just Jigsaw Falling Into Place.
That’s what I was kind of thinking, too. I can’t remember the last time I saw either of them take a shift completely off.
Well, Ovechkin doesn’t play defense. But other than that, you get Ted’s money’s worth from those guys.
I think Semin’s D is really underrated. He’s defined by stickhandling and brain clouds, and some (yes, some) of his alleged nights-off feature excellent, more-work-than-you-think defensive play.
My neighbor calls him Nuke.
What’s interesting with Semin’s D is that it’s like his offense – high risk, high reward. He’s the master of the stick-lift/takeaway combo, which when it works is a fantastic play – when it doesn’t, it’s a hooking call.
And that’s a pretty good nickname for him (and much more SFW :P).
How many games before we can say that he has, in fact turned the corner?
I don’t think it’s a corner. I think it’s a serpentine path. I believe i heads in the right direction, on average, but that doesn’t mean it won’t turn the wrong way again sometime soon (before turning the right way once more, etc.)
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jan 26, 2010 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
I’d take 48 PIMs over 82 games. Both, actually.
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Let's not be tooo greedy
How about 42 PIMS in 72 games? :P
Think thats a bit more reachable for him.
At least he’d get an avatar on his profile…
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by Bald Pollack on Jan 26, 2010 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
They’ve formed the KHL, they’ve changed the organization, the rules…
“Whatever! Look, Viktor Kozlov went to Salavat, and he says that the rules are just the same as they always were. Unless they knock you flat out on the ice, the game goes on. It’s not like in the NHL, where just a little hook on your opponent will get you two minutes.”
From last night’s translation (Emphasis at the end of the quote mine).
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Jan 26, 2010 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
You would think that he’d realize that he benefits from that more than he’s dinged by it… but Sasha is Sasha I guess.
PuckDaddy be damned, I'm putting CincoCinco on the back of a Schultz jersey!
by Chris meet Alex on Jan 26, 2010 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
The two main things I take from his comments about KHL were 1) NHL remains foreign to Semin, maybe more so than to 8-19. That was at the heart of his famous comment about crosby, and can’t be a small deal given his outsize talent and artistic temperament.
2) Going back to KHL my asphalt.
Re your point #2, I did not sense any particular yearning quality, no “if only” sentiment about playing back home in KHL.
IS KEPTIN NOW
In general, no player who has the opportunity to pull Top 6 minutes in the NHL is going back to the KHL. The guys that are going back are old, or pouting, or whatever, but there’s something amiss with their situation in the NHL.
The uncertainties of your paycheck, the travel conditions, the medical care, the quality of the teammates…even if you can get tax-free wages, there are significant downsides.
Semin ain’t that enigmatic…
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
The guy has also made a rather significant investment in local real estate, he’s even in Arlington he’d probably lose a good bit if he sold anytime soon
Aim for the head baby Jesus
NO!
Games missed matter. How does he rank in the NHL in terms of absolute production?
Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.
by Rob Parker on Jan 26, 2010 2:50 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Semin is an amazing talent, and if properly motivated and healthy, a bargain even at $6MM. I think we’ll see better consistency out of him with Ovie wearing the “C”.
if if if if if, but but but but but.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
…well put.
I agree, I keep getting shouted down when I suggest this but I don’t think we can underestimate the impact of Ovie getting the ‘C’ on Semin’s play. Whether it lasts or not is another question, but he’s been remarkably consistent and generally focused (and rarely penalized) since that happened.
I would suggest that everyone is overestimating the impact, but I’m probably in the minority.
My ability to post is only surpassed by my ability to pinch pennies.
I have to concur here. Before this season I’d say Semin had chemistry with Ovie, Backstrom, and Feds, and generally he could have some consistency on his line since one or more of those guys would play with him. This season he hasn’t had that same sort of consistency, but now with BB not having changed lines in an eternity (relatively speaking, of course) that no doubt helps. Flash as much said that he “knew” Semin would be hanging out in the circle-crease area on that between the legs pass. That’s developing chemistry right there, which will no doubt help all parties involved.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Jan 26, 2010 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
"Hanging out waiting for a pass."
trying to imply something?
"My left hand has pretty much turned into a claw anyway."
I hope it’s not meant as a slam…because that’s something a lot of guys on our team are “guilty” of, and it’s for good reason. With the playmakers we have on this team and the speed with which they move the puck, often the smartest thing to do is “hang out and wait for a pass” because you never know when said pass will be coming at you.
Not to mention the fact that it usually means Semin (or whoever is doing it) has created space for himself, snuck in behind the D, etc. It’s something that’s not easy to do, and the best goal-scorers do it on a regular basis.
This is so true. Being a closer requires a LOT of waiting, believe it or not. This is my favorite example of “waiting for a pass.”
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
This isn't Mites on Ice
When Flash said that, I’m inclined to think it was more a comment about his familiarity with where Semin would be during that particular situation or any other similar circumstance occurring during play. Being at the right place at the right time relative to the puck and ongoing play is important.
If my memory serves me correctly, the play unfolded as follows: Semin had an initial backhand wrap around thwarted. The puck eventually made its way to the boards behind the net where Laich and Flash were promptly working the boards with ShaMo pinching deep to help … Meanwhile, Semin floated towards the highslot creating space. ShaMo won his battle against a ’yote and swatted the puck towards Fleischman who dished it between his legs to Semin for the finish. Textbook.
It’s a high quality scoring chance that resulted in a goal due to 1) the hard work done by Laich, ShaMo along the boards winning possesion 2) Semin having the acumen and patience to go to the slot trusting that his linemates would gain possession and eventually the puck would end on his stick 3) Flash having the awareness that Semin would most likely be where he was
"My left hand has pretty much turned into a claw anyway."
True. I’d say it’s hard to tell which was the actual impact, since they happened in the same game. My reasoning behind the captaincy connection speaks more to the level of focus and concentration he seems to have now compared to the pre-Ovie era. He’s played w/ guys who can dish him the puck and anticipate where he’ll be – one of the best, Backstrom – but only now is it all clicking.
I don’t know. Maybe I am reading too much into it but I see a marked difference in how he approaches the game now. Honestly I hope it’s a result of both, because I’d obviously like to see it continue.
I wonder why that is. I’m sure part of it (how much I don’t know) is that Ovie is captain, but why would that change him? Is having his best friend become captain that much of a motive to focus? Or is it that Ovie can yell at him?
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Jan 26, 2010 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
Honestly? I’m not entirely sure, since having proof of my theory would require some heavy duty degrees in psychology…but in my mind, and obviously this is just a theory, I see it as a respect thing.
Not that he didn’t respect Clark, of course, but maybe subconsciously (or consciously, who knows) he’s more willing to work hard with his best friend at the helm. If the team succeeds or fails, if Semin succeeds or fails, it’s a reflection on the captain.
But again, who knows. A bit of mid-week theorizing never hurt anyone, right? :)
Heh, I guess not.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Jan 26, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
This has happened to me. I was a contributor to a publication that was run by a very competent editorial staff with whom I was not particularly close. Then my friend took over the reins, and I doubled or tripled my efforts. I just cared about my buddy, and wanted things to go well for him, so I worked extra hard. My buddy was no better or worse than his predecessors, but he got a lot more out of me because of our friendship.
Not saying this is actually happening with Sasha, just saying it’s a legitimate phenomenon.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jan 26, 2010 6:01 PM EST up reply actions
I would agree with that, I really don’t know why that should have such an effect on his stepping up his game.
I’ve been one of Sasha’s critics since he first became a Cap, primarily because I felt there was such a significant gap between his talent and his level of effort. The gap has closed in recent weeks. There hasn’t been much to criticize. It remains to be seen how he looks in the long run, whether he stays healthy and for that matter, focused.
One of the things I found most interesting in tuvan’s translated interview was that he bsaically said it’s taken him 5 seasons to figure out how penalties are called in the NHL, and that’s why he’s taken fewer bad ones recently. That’s some learning curve.
Well, granted, I think part of it is also figuring out what he can get away with, he himself, which is always a changing factor, both because of reputation and his skill level.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Jan 26, 2010 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
primarily because I felt there was such a significant gap between his talent and his level of effort.
You have no idea what his “level of effort is.”
I was a lousy hockey player but competed at pretty high levels of soccer. I’m not much in terms of natural athletic grace, but have a high work rate. I remember my first local olympic feeder camp a million years ago. I was matched up against a guy who ended up starting 4 years at UVA when they won repeated NCAA championships under Arena. This guy just blew past me and completely worked me over all scrimmage long, and didn’t even look like he was trying. Afterward I was shaking my head and talking to another guy who’d played in the camp the year before and said how discouraging it was to get crushed like that by a guy who wasn’t even trying. The vet said to me, “Well, one small piece of consolation you can take is that that’s actually that guy trying 100%. He’s just so smooth, it doesn’t look like he’s trying. Not that that should make you feel much better.”
My guess is sasha is trying his damnedest. He’s just not as spastic as Brooksie, so people pick on him.
Afterward I was shaking my head and talking to another guy who’d played in the camp the year before and said how discouraging it was to get crushed like that by a guy who wasn’t even trying. The vet said to me, "Well, one small piece of consolation you can take is that that’s actually that guy trying 100%. He’s just so smooth, it doesn’t look like he’s trying. Not that that should make you feel much better."
Mike Green feels his pain.
IS KEPTIN NOW
That story works in showing that looking at a small sample of performances you can’t necessarily tell how hard a guy is trying since some people make it look effortless. But with Semin the effort criticism comes from seeing him play extended viewing and noticing changes in how hard it looks like he is skating and trying when he is hot and when he is cold.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Jan 26, 2010 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
I played with the guy in question for 4 years. He always looked graceful and effortless — uniquely so, even on teams that sent others to European pro leagues.
But Semin doesn’t always look the same. Sometimes it looks like he’s quitting on plays or not even paying attention to the same game as everyone else. It’s not that he consistently looks so good that he makes it look effortless.
Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.
sometimes Ovie looks the same
just sayin’.
by DonnieKnutts on Jan 26, 2010 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
Feel free to try to make this argument. I don’t even want to hash out this whole Semin consistency argument again, because it’s been done so many times this season already, but I will. If you (or anyone) honestly think that you can make a case that AO is less consistent, or gives less effort, than Semin, I’m game.
Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.
it's impossible to make a case either way
proving (or disproving) one’s “effort” is impossible unless the player (a la Randy Moss) outright says, “I take some plays off.” Ask a Penguins fan if Ovie coasts on certain plays. We may disagree but it’s all rooted in your perception of said player and your interpretation of his on-ice performance.
by DonnieKnutts on Jan 26, 2010 6:48 PM EST up reply actions
Or could be rooted in the consistency of production.
Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.
I'd say Semin's been pretty damn consistent
but hey… tomato, tomato.
by DonnieKnutts on Jan 26, 2010 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
While it’s fair to say that you can’t know what kind of effort a guy is putting out if you aren’t in the room, I do think you can glean clues from watching them play. Did you need Jagr to admit that he quit on the team? Obviously Semin is nowhere near that level, but I don’t think it’s per se unfair to say that he has mental focus/effort lapses. A closer example would be Kovalev. For over a decade people have said “when he wants to play he can take over a game” and he’s been an exceptionally streaky scorer. I basically see Semin on that level, though there is definitely hope for Semin and none for Kovalev. Is there a reason that Kovalev should get that label and Semin should not?
Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.
I’ve watched every Caps game he’s played in. After watching the same players for a while you can readily see more effort in some games than others.
I’m not sure that watching every game makes one an expert, particularly in this area – whether or not he’s putting forth effort is purely subjective. I can’t necessarily tell and I’ve watched every Caps game he’s played in, too.
Quit sugar coating it and tell us how you really feel, man.
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
by fat_daddyo on Jan 26, 2010 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I guess this is “Beat Up on Caps_Chick Week.” I’ll take a hiatus for a while, it’s a bit hostile in here.
Not that at all. I just responded to a cop out non-response with a cop out non-response.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Does squeezing sawdust (or graphite) out of your stick count as effort?
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jan 26, 2010 6:24 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, well, if you’d quit suggesting it in such a judgemental way, maybe you wouldn’t get shouted down, hmmmmmm?
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
Hey, man, stop trying to make me conform and be someone I’m not – I gotta let my judgmental bitch flag fly!
judgmental bitch flag
KNOCK KNOCK: Yes, can I speak to the photoshoppers please? This is opportunity…
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
Do you like dogs? Have a favorite breed?
"Camaraderie, that's what the Washington Capitals are all about."
by CapitalCentre on Jan 26, 2010 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
thank you Mr. ken Beatrice
and whilke we’re at it, “My scouts tell me that Semin has a tremendous uwpsyde!! Tremendous, but he can be a lazy playuh…”
"Here lies David St. Hubbins... and why not?"
...David St. Hubbins from the movie "This Is Spinal Tap"
by Izzyforeal365 on Jan 26, 2010 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
What made him even more hillarious was his
Massachusetts accent broadcasting down here in the nations capitol and talking like he was a native, “oh if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, oh what a party we’d have”… really is that how they party up north, because it ’aint so down here!
"Here lies David St. Hubbins... and why not?"
...David St. Hubbins from the movie "This Is Spinal Tap"
by Izzyforeal365 on Jan 31, 2010 9:10 AM EST up reply actions
yet inconsistent and injury prone
Why do you always focus on the negative instead of providing both sides of the story? Cover up, your bias is showing.
I think one of the best things about his play the last 24 games isn’t that he hasn’t had off games, because he certainly has. But recently when he has been off he has just sorta been invisible, as opposed to the beginning of the year and in past years when he would actively hurt the team with bad turnovers and dumb penalties when he was off his game. His inconsistency will be much easier to live with if he goes from white hot to just sorta there as opposed to alternating between killing the other team and killing the Caps.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
Cover up, your bias is showing.
Prude.
And I was thinking the same exact thing the other night (which makes you brilliant, just so you know) – he becomes invisible on off nights instead of visible for all the wrong reasons.
Well I already knew I was brilliant, but validation is always nice.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Jan 26, 2010 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
We also haven’t seen things snowball on him. In the past one bad play would lead to another. He’d turn the puck over in the neutral zone like a jerk, and then dive and trip Daniel Alfredsson in an attempt to get the puck back. His bad plays, and bad games, have been more isolated recently. I’m still not sold that we’ve seen the last of bad Sasha, but it’s encouraging at least.
Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.
Semin "takes off " far less games than people perceive. I went to the Detroit game the other night and even JP called him out for looking crappy… well, I watched him the entire night, and he played smarter than anyone on the ice (yes, that includes Liddy)… except for the ill advised drop pass to Backstrom which caused everyone to groan and punch a hole through their TV. It is fascinating to watch a single player through the course of a game, watch what you think he should be doing, but even more interesting, what events cause his good plays, and bad plays to be more pronounced. If Backstrom circles right like he expected him to, that turns into a 3 on 2. He circles left, it’s a goal. Semin takes calculated risks, and that time he lost.
The truth is, Sasha is a far more cerebral player than most give him credit for, and tunes his game differently to teams and situations. He played very positionally sound against Detriot, and against Pheonix (which I also attended) he skated and just moved far more in general.
In the end, I feel like Semin gets an unfair rap of being inconsistent in terms of effort. He takes risks, plays differently against different opponents (which is perceived as lazy), and creates this perception of being streaky. But in reality he creates scoring opportunities, and makes passes that could lead to scoring opportunities as good as anyone in the league, but his methods leave for a hit-or-miss type outcome because he is so skilled. Bottom line, at 6m, I’d lock him up for 8 years in a heartbeat.
PS- injury prone is a myth. Just ask DePietro or Varlamov. It’s luck. Bad luck.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 26, 2010 3:19 PM EST reply actions
Injury prone, bad luck...
I don’t care what you call it, he gets injured a lot. The injuries to DiPietro, Varlamov, Semin, Gaborik, etc. don’t detract from their value any less if you call it bad luck instead of being injury prone. I’m not sure how you would go about showing that difference.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Jan 26, 2010 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
injury prone is a myth. Just ask DePietro or Varlamov. It’s luck. Bad luck.<.blockquote>
3 years of bad luck and he’s supposed to get locked up to a long-term deal? Sorry, no sale.
If you don't know how to write or what to think, or have a question about something on an elitist blog, read its community guidelines for assistance.
by Bald Pollack on Jan 26, 2010 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
And no end quote (yeesh).
If you don't know how to write or what to think, or have a question about something on an elitist blog, read its community guidelines for assistance.
by Bald Pollack on Jan 26, 2010 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
PS- injury prone is a myth. Just ask DePietro or Varlamov..
Was their discussion of it part of the seminar led by Marian Gaborik and Mark Prior?
Lacking strength, or play styles that may lend themselves to getting injured is not “injury prone” as people use the word.
Semin has worked on his strength a lot over the past 2 years, it’s hard to say his wrist injury is anything but bad luck.
That he has an existing injury that could pose potential problems down the road… is a completely different and valid discussion.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 26, 2010 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
That he has an existing injury that could pose potential problems down the road
But wouldn’t that make him prone to more injuries down the road?
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
That largely depends on what he does about it the first time through…
As for “bad luck” and the wrist injury, I’d add “a bad, uncalled slash” to that list of causes. It’s not a conditioning thing with the wrist, though.
I need a snappy signature...
agreed. Tendinitis of the wrist is almost always the result of overuse. Sometimes it’s because of an underlying structural issue. And occasionally you get someone with an underlying structural issue who likes to overuse the joint (oh joy!). Rarely does a single “traumatic” event like a slash cause tendinitis.
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
On Draper having to wear a USA jersey at practice: "well at least the Wings can settle bets without involving gold plated desert eagles!"
Yeah. I tried his shooting style and one shot hurt my wrists a lot.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Jan 26, 2010 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Curling it into the body.
Of course, it was a stiff stick to begin with…
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Jan 26, 2010 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
to be honest, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to find out that they way he torques his wrist on those sick shots contributed to his wrist problems. Kinda like how elite pitchers all end up with shoulder or elbow (or both) tendinitis to some degree. Your body really isn’t supposed to move in that motion, let alone that quickly!
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
On Draper having to wear a USA jersey at practice: "well at least the Wings can settle bets without involving gold plated desert eagles!"
i have no concrete examples I can point to, just vague memories, but didn’t Tiger Woods have some issues with his wrists b/c of the amount of power he generated when he swung the golf club? there were a couple of times where he tried to blast the golf ball out of a sand trap or the rough and he’d visibly wince or favor one of his wrists
"My left hand has pretty much turned into a claw anyway."
honestly, I don’t follow golf AT ALL so I can’t speak to Tiger and the effects of his swing on his wrist. It may be, like Semin or the baseball pitchers I mentioned above, that he is twisting the tissue beyond what is “normal” and doing so with such force, repeatedly, that is causes inflammation.
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
On Draper having to wear a USA jersey at practice: "well at least the Wings can settle bets without involving gold plated desert eagles!"
His knees. He jerks them to generate more power.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Jan 26, 2010 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
ahhhhh, didn’t Tiger also have some ongoing knee issues?
Kung-fu Rink Rabbit
On Draper having to wear a USA jersey at practice: "well at least the Wings can settle bets without involving gold plated desert eagles!"
Had to get surgery I think, and missed time.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Jan 27, 2010 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
For sure. I totally concede that an old injury could make someone injury prone to that specific area becoming reinjured. But when you are 25 years old and we’re talking about the type of injuries that we are, the truth is it’s not very likely.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 26, 2010 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
PS- injury prone is a myth. Just ask DePietro or Varlamov. It’s luck. Bad luck.
You can say that, but here’s a list of GP each year for one of the best to ever lace ’em up.
47
82
65
72
78
49
73
75
39
60
67
Was Peter Forsberg injury-prone or fantastically, phenomenally unlucky?
Here’s Marian Gaborik
71
78
81
65
65
48
77
17
Did he miss all those games because he’s really, really, really unlucky year after year or because he’s more likely to get injured than other players?
I’m not really sure where you can draw the bad luck conclusion from, especially when there are players out there like Brooks Laich and Nick Backstrom that rarely, if ever, miss games because of injury.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jan 26, 2010 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
Gaborik is a much better example. Forsberg was extremely physical when he wanted to be, and put his body through a lot of punishment. Semin and Gaborik do not. I’d say that Forsberg was injury prone, but it wasn’t very unexpected given his style of play. Same with Eric Lindros. And Cam Neely. And then once the injuries started with those guys, they never stopped. Let’s hope our extremely physical star goes the way of Scott Stevens, not Eric Lindros.
Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.
Going back to the original comment here, I think BWBW is right on. The key word for Semin is “cerebral.” He’s an artist out there. And sometimes he overthinks it, or he’s too far ahead of his teammates, and what he’s trying just doesn’t work.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jan 26, 2010 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
Agh, Kovalchuk would be a disaster. He’s completely saved by a high shooting percentage, otherwise he’s drag on winning.
Considering the market value for both players, Semin is so clearly the better player to have on your team in terms of goals versus salary (GVS) it’s not even a question.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 26, 2010 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
In UFA scenarios
10-11 million for Kovy
7-8 mil for Semin
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 26, 2010 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
Kovalchuk doesn’t become the highest paid player in the NHL when he hits the market, and he’s scored 29% more goals than Semin since the lockout. Bang for your buck, all things considered, I think they’re pretty comparable.
Yeah. 10-11 is probably bidding-war level, but the Caps might be able to get him for less.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Jan 26, 2010 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
If you consider Semin’s prorated stats for the past 2 years extrapolated over a season, they are very close. And there is inherent value in a big name like Kovalchuk. He will get paid more than Semin for his name and persona— they could be a identical players. Hockey is more than a game to the owners, they are looking at the bottom line. They are willing to overpay by a million dollars to sign a marquee player.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 26, 2010 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
If you consider Semin’s prorated stats you’re no longer comparing goal-to-dollar ratio.
by David Getz on Jan 26, 2010 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It is when you talk about the future. And when subscribe to the “injury prone” doesn’t exist theory.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 26, 2010 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
So if we assume Kovalchuk makes a certain amount and we assume Semin makes a certain amount and we assume a certain level of production for each, it’s possible Semin’s the better value?
by David Getz on Jan 26, 2010 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The only assumption is the injury fairy who curses unlucky players.
They produce, in hockey games, similar amounts of benefit. I would say almost identical in terms of winning. One gets, and will get paid 25% more. Which do you want?
Maybe you want the one that you think won’t get injured. Me? I want the cheaper one, because I don’t believe in being injury prone.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 26, 2010 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
ps Kovy is on the books for 6.234 or something right now. Assuming his next move, he will make 25% more.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 26, 2010 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
The only assumption is the injury fairy who curses unlucky players.
No, you’re assuming a salary for Kovalchuk that’s probably unrealistic, that Semin’s boost from the beneficial playing situation isn’t that significant, that Kovalchulk’s production isn’t that affected by his poor teammates, and that Semin produces at the same rate over an 82 game season is he stays healthy.
Kov makes no less than 10 as a UFA.
Semin has had quality teammates, but nothing dissimilar to Kovy who always plays on his first line compared to Sasha’s second.
He has missed ~20-25% of team games in the last 2 years. A scoring rate is a scoring rate, and he has enough data. There is no reason to think he would produce anything statistically different with 20% more games under his belt.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 26, 2010 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
Playing on the Caps 2nd line (and top PP) is a better situation to put up points than playing on Atlanta’s 1st line.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Jan 26, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
Someone get the qualteam
Five on five, Semin’s is 14% higher and Kovalchuk’s quality of competition is 11% higher. And the talent’s not comparable. And that doesn’t account for the whole second line boost Semin gets.
Those numbers are predictable, and noteworthy, but misleading in a % fashion. It doesn’t mean he would produce 14% or 25% less if he were playing in Kovy’s situation.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 26, 2010 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
They’re only misleading in that sense if you use them to make that argument, which I didn’t do. As for percentage versus absolute, I disagree, because the numbers as absolutes don’t mean anything. They only have relevance compared to one another.
Honestly, though, using QualTeam and QualComp to argue anything beyond the very basic is silly because the stat that feeds into them in so flawed and because no knows what the impact is.
Honestly, though, using QualTeam and QualComp to argue anything beyond the very basic is silly because the stat that feeds into them in so flawed
Could you please explain this more? I’ve always felt the same way but never really known exactly how they do the numbers. It just seems to me that there has to be some degree of circularity to the numbers, in which case you don’t really know what’s going on.
Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.
Here’s QualComp and here’s QualTeam.
"We've got armadillos in our trousers. It's really quite frightening."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Jan 26, 2010 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
What I think he’s saying (don’t want to put words in his mouth) is that they’re both +/- based stats, so any value you get out of quality of competition/teammates is inherently dependent on how much value you get out of +/-, even if it is adjusted +/-.
"We've got armadillos in our trousers. It's really quite frightening."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Jan 26, 2010 7:01 PM EST up reply actions
Right. My problem is also that it doesn’t seem to take into consideration different roles. Playing against the other team’s top defensive unit may look like a low QComp but it’s not the same as you playing against the other team’s worst players. I’m also concerned that every shift you are affecting both your QTeam and QComp so it’s circular in that every player has control of their (and their linemates) QStats despite the fact they are supposed to be independent measures.
Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.
Not sure I follow you here.
Playing against the other team’s top defensive unit may look like a low QComp but it’s not the same as you playing against the other team’s worst players.
The theory behind quality of competition is that the opponent’s best players will most likely have the higher adjusted +/- (therein lies the flaw as +/- isn’t a definitive measure of an opponent’s skill). The better player’s team will allow fewer goal against and score more goals for when he is on the ice relative to when he is off the ice. When you average out all the relative +/- of the opposing players on the ice you get your QualComp; the higher the average +/-, the more skilled the competition.
I’m also concerned that every shift you are affecting both your QTeam and QComp so it’s circular in that every player has control of their (and their linemates) QStats despite the fact they are supposed to be independent measures.
QualComp/Team changes with every shift taken. It’s an aggregate over a longer period of time that makes these measures significant. I’m not sure what you mean by “independant measures.” A single player’s QualComp/Team is influenced by every player skated against on the ice and every teammate skated with on the ice. Or as Gabe said:
we average that rating across all of a player’s opponents, weighting for how much time they played against one another…
"We've got armadillos in our trousers. It's really quite frightening."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Jan 26, 2010 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
The team’s best defensive players will not always have the best +/- because of the assignments they draw. You could have one player, say Steckel, be your best defensive C, but have a worse +/- than Backstrom. That’s because Steckel faces the harder defensive assignments so he’s going to be on for more goals against.
By “independent measure” I meant something that was independent of what the player did. The point of QStats is to try to adjust for how good the other team is. But AO is regularly hanging minuses on his competition, so they look worse. That doesn’t mean AO isn’t facing good players, it just means he’s beating up on whoever he plays against.
Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.
You could have one player, say Steckel, be your best defensive C, but have a worse +/- than Backstrom. That’s because Steckel faces the harder defensive assignments so he’s going to be on for more goals against.
Right, which means his opponents are generally going to have a higher adjusted +/-, which means Steckel will have a higher QualComp (in this scenario. Not sure if this is actually the case.) This helps you explain (to a degree) some of Steckel’s other metrics, including his own +/-. Steckel’s +/- does not factor into his QualStat rating just to be clear.
But AO is regularly hanging minuses on his competition, so they look worse.
This is true to a degree, but the +/- of opponents is affected by other players, other lines, other teams. It’s a measure of how well a player has performed so far this season, not just in one shift against the player whose QualComp you are computing. The effects of Ovi scoring goals against opponents is only one fraction of what is accounted for in QualComp.
"We've got armadillos in our trousers. It's really quite frightening."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Jan 26, 2010 9:45 PM EST up reply actions
You’re right about the aggregation making it more trustworthy, but I still don’t like it very much. +/- is pretty lame in general so even if I wasn’t concerned about the interdependence of the numbers I wouldn’t like it too much. I guess there isn’t a better way to quantify that, but this makes me think less of QStats.
Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.
Yup. I think that’s DMG’s original point. +/- isn’t the best indicator of a player’s “quality,” be it a teammate or an opponent. I suppose other factors could be included to improve the rating, but I’ll take what we have currently over nothing at all. It’s not meant to be a stand alone stat. It just helps provide some context as to a player’s other stats.
"We've got armadillos in our trousers. It's really quite frightening."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Jan 26, 2010 10:03 PM EST up reply actions
Doesn’t the qualcomp account for the second line boost?
What does “And the talent’s not comparable” mean?
In general, I agree with you that Semin would perform worse on Atlanta, and Kovy would perform better in DC, I should note. Not challenging you here, just trying to make sure I’m understanding your line of argumentation.
"You're gonna eat that g**d**n Koho, three!"
Doesn’t the qualcomp account for the second line boost?
It might, but that would make sense under these circumstnaces
What does "And the talent’s not comparable" mean?
I mean that Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom, and Alex Ovechkin are a lot more talented than anyone in Atlanta, no matter what each guy’s respective plus/minus is (more applicable to PP than ES).
But what about D?
Semin is a PKer, that has to add something. Can someone compare the D of both?
They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown.
Kov makes no less than 10 as a UFA.
I could be wrong, but I very much doubt any GM out there is willing to make Ilya Kovalchuk the highest paid player in the NHL.
Semin has had quality teammates, but nothing dissimilar to Kovy who always plays on his first line compared to Sasha’s second.
Semin either plays on the second line, going against weaker offensive players, or on the first line with the world’s best offensive players and one of the league’s best playermakers. He plays on a powerplay with those two, and the best offensive defenseman in the game. Ilya Kovalchuk doesn’t have another legit first line player on his team. Their situations are not remotely comparable.
What you think is “not remotely comparable” is pretty easy. Go grab their qualteams. They won’t be much different. And whatever different there is, will account for very little in overall production.
And as I said earlier, when a marquee name like Kovy hits the open market you will see 10mil in a heartbeat. This is a business, and players like that instantly create credibility and hype around your franchise in the eyes of fans (that is to say, not necessarily in the standings.)
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 26, 2010 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
What you think is "not remotely comparable" is pretty easy. Go grab their qualteams.
Quality of teammates ratings is based on +/- and it’s only indicative of very basic things – and no matter what Semin and Kovalchuk’s respective teammates’ +/- ratings are there’s simply no way to logically argue that playing with Rich Peverly, Slava Kozlov, and Toby Enstrom is nearly as good as an environment when you’re playing with Backstrom, Ovechkin, and Green. Or on the second line.
And as I said earlier, when a marquee name like Kovy hits the open market you will see 10mil in a heartbeat.
How exactly are defining “open market” here? If you’re talking about him as UFA, I would be shocked if you’re right. If you’re talking about an uncapped world where everyone’s a free agent simultaneously, I can’t see how you can possibly know that.
kovy is not playing in little league, their offense is 6th in the league.
hockey is a poor sport. kovy makes owners money. it’s an investment to make him the highest paid player in the NHL, more than pucks he will put in the net. there is hidden, inherent super star value that Semin doesn’t carry. do you disagree?
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 26, 2010 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
kovy is not playing in little league, their offense is 6th in the league.
Strawman. I didn’t say the Thrashers’ offense was bad. I said Semin’s in a better environment to generate points because he has, and has had, better talent around him.
kovy makes owners money. it’s an investment to make him the highest paid player in the NHL, more than pucks he will put in the net. there is hidden, inherent super star value that Semin doesn’t carry. do you disagree?
I don’t disagree that Kovalchuk has that effect, but I don’t think it gets him the $10 million.
The Thrashers comment was pointed towards the “not remotely comparable” comment. He is playing with 11 other forwards whose output, along with Kovys, totals the 6th best in the league. Semin doesn’t play a whole lot of ES minutes with the other big 3. Sure, some minutes with Green, and minutes on the PP, but my point is Semin is in no way being carried, and in reality, since Kovy is constantly being catered to as the GO TO guy in all situations, Kovy has it pretty good.
And if you agree with my second point, then you essentially agree with what I am trying to say, on the whole.
It is not a good hockey move to sign Kovy as a UFA. He carries an extra cost that other teams are willing to pay, and your salary could be used on better GVS players, such as Semin, who in fact carries a NEGATIVE inherent value because he is “injury prone” and a mystery to many people.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 26, 2010 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
I have to agree that Atlanta force-feeds Kovy the puck constantly. Much the way the Caps used to with Ovechkin prior to this season.
this whole Kovy-Semin comparison
(and I’ve been guilty of it too) seems a little pointless, who’d be better where, who has better teammates, etc. They’re different types of players anyway. Kovy, to me, is more akin to Ovie…Semin is more of a playmaker than either of them. Kovy is the type of player who I think would be content as the alpha dog of a team; Semin, I think, would buckle under that weight (at least at this point his career). They’re totally different players in that sense.
by DonnieKnutts on Jan 26, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
He is playing with 11 other forwards whose output, along with Kovys, totals the 6th best in the league. Semin doesn’t play a whole lot of ES minutes with the other big 3. Sure, some minutes with Green, and minutes on the PP, but my point is Semin is in no way being carried
That’s a drastic oversimplification. My point is that Semin is in a drastically better situation:
- Every night he plays on the powerplay with Green, Backstrom, and Ovechkin, all of whom are vastly superior to anyone in Atlanta.
- Even strength Semin sometimes plays with Ovie and Backs and sometimes plays against an opponent’s second tier guys. Every night he has at least on advantage Kovlachuk’s never come close to having.
To say those situation aren’t drastically different just isn’t realistic.
since Kovy is constantly being catered to as the GO TO guy in all situations, Kovy has it pretty good.
Sure, but the flip side is that he’s the focal point of everyone’s defense every night. Semin never is.
And if you agree with my second point, then you essentially agree with what I am trying to say, on the whole.
That’s not true. You’re making the leap that because Kovalchuk can generate revenue, he’s going to get a bigger contract, and I don’t think that’s a fair assumption. The teams that can afford him don’t need him and the team that could benefit from that can’t afford him any way. Plus every team is working within the salary cap constraints, so you can’t assume someone drops money for an intangible (as it applies to on ice performance).
Ah, ok. Well that makes it clear. We basically disagree on all points.
I think teams are willing to pay extra for a marquee player, even in a cap driven league. (an extra million to Kovy is 2% of the cap, we had 10% of our cap locked up in a paper weight at the beginning of the season..) I’d be shocked if he wasn’t the highest paid player in the league next year.
Second, I believe Kovy and Sasha’s stats, goals and assists, if they were swapped positions on their respective teams, would be similar. While Semin plays with such quality teammates on the PP… these teammates put the puck in the net as well, before Semin can touch it. Kovy is leaned on to bear the brunt of the weight, while having a top 6 offense around him to help. He is the linchpin of the offense. Semin is a piece. You could put alot of 2nd line guys in the league in Kovys spot and they would produce better numbers than they were previously.
In the end, it is easy to look at teams, players, stats, and the rest, and draw extremely different conclusions about effect on production, as we have here.
The truth is… they produce at a very similar rate, and one will be getting a lot more money next year. Close to double.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 26, 2010 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
I think teams are willing to pay extra for a marquee player, even in a cap driven league.
Why? What’s the incentive?
You could put alot of 2nd line guys in the league in Kovys spot and they would produce better numbers than they were previously.
The same is true of Semin. Only more so, because the average second liner can’t cope with top defensive players.
I just can’t see it, and what it comes down to for me is how the roster layout affects who you play with and who you play against/how big a priority you are to the other team. On the powerplay, Semin has the advantage every night in both categories, and every night has the advantage in one at even strength. Kovalchuk never has the advantage in either.
A great discussion without stupid wordplay on somebody’s name. Who knew?
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by Bald Pollack on Jan 26, 2010 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
We will continue to disagree, and it’s not nearly as simple as either of us are making it out to be. You keep ignoring the fact that their team depends on Kovy to shoot and score every night, and Semin can play a more balanced game. You are also overstating line matching, in both its use and effect. Lastly, Semin’s even strength teammates are very comparable to Kovy’s. There’s no other way to say it. Would Brooks and Flash be on ATLs first line?
I’m sorry I can’t convince you that a team doesn’t stand to gain an enormous amount at the end of the day by having a top 5 face in the game on their team. In jersey sales, at the gate, on TV— at every turn. It creates hype, and hype creates money.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 26, 2010 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
I enjoyed this, and it made the rest of my day fly. Leaving work in a few, but I have a few fanposts I’ve been meaning to write up, so maybe I’ll touch on this and really try to back up some of the claims I am making.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 26, 2010 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
You keep ignoring the fact that their team depends on Kovy to shoot and score every night, and Semin can play a more balanced game.
I don’t think that’s true, and if it is it’s probably because the discussion started as goals compared to dollars and I honed in on that. I do think Semin’s a better defensive player and a better playmaker.
You are also overstating line matching, in both its use and effect. Lastly, Semin’s even strength teammates are very comparable to Kovy’s.
It’s not the line matching or the teammates. It’s the combination. Kovalchuk plays with second line players but he’s the primary focus every time he’s on the ice and sees the opposition’s best defenders. Semin does not.
Bottom line, to me, is that Kovalchuk’s in a situation where he’s producing below what you’d expect because he doesn’t have first line teammates, and Semin’s in a position to produce beyond what you’d expect because his teammates are so good. Put them in identical situations and I think Kovy produces more (although it might just depend on the strengths of their respective teammates).
I’m sorry I can’t convince you that a team doesn’t stand to gain an enormous amount at the end of the day by having a top 5 face in the game on their team.
I didn’t mean to imply that. I don’t disagree he has that effect, but I don’t think that effect gets him more money, because I don’t see how it does. Teams that spend to the cap are spending to win and most are in a situation where they can’t afford him, cap-wise. Teams that would get a huge boost aren’t going to want to make that financial commitment anyway. The one and only place I think Kovalchuk’s name being worth a whole lot is Atlanta, which is why I still think it’s possible he gets 10-11M there.
And then, of course, how much has he really helped them at the gate?
Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.
not sure
but can you imagine them WITHOUT him?
by DonnieKnutts on Jan 26, 2010 6:36 PM EST up reply actions
I think the difference is spelled out right there in your comment – "prorated stats". If he hadn’t suffered some bad luck when it comes to injury, this discussion becomes a different one. I don’t disagree that they’re similar players but for whatever reason, Kovalchuk’s been luckier and/or less injury-prone over his career than Semin has.
I have to believe there just aren’t many teams willing to pay $10-11 million for Semin on the open market mainly because of his injury problems and inconsistency (at least teams not named the New York Rangers); for Kovalchuk, I could definitely see it.
Isn’t Semin’s market value 6 million? I look into my crystal ball and see Kovy getting 9.5 this summer.
I meant for Kovy…but in all seriousness, what kind of raise is Semin looking at once his one-year is done. I’m thinking more than 6 million
Long-term, his hit can probably be under that
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Jan 26, 2010 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t see why the Caps can’t structure a long-term deal to accomodate Kovalchuk. The Blackhawks worked their magic, why can’t the Caps.
We’re asking them basically to have Ovie, Backstrom, and another forward locked long term.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Jan 26, 2010 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
When you have the opportunity to snag up a multiple time 50-goal scorer….I think you jump at the chance. I sure as hell don’t want the Caps getting into any more bad contracts, but Kovy’s talent is just too immense to even begin to think he wouldn’t work in Washington.
When you have the opportunity to snag up a multiple time 50-goal scorer….I think you jump at the chance.
That’s not an absolute. If you’re paying big money, long term, for an offensive dynamo on a team that already has the offensive talent the Capitals do, you’re not spending as effectively as you could.
Kovy’s talent is just too immense to even begin to think he wouldn’t work in Washington.
That’s not the issue I’m talking about. I’m talking about whether it’d be in the team’s best interest to sign him.
I think he makes the team better, but I think he’s going to be expensive enough and there are going to be other deals out there that make enough sense that the Caps picking up isn’t their best option.
Yea agreed on the expensive part. I just think that the Caps don’t necessarily need a big bruising defenseman, or a veteran d-man, like a Scotty Neidermeyer. I think a Kovy rental could absolutely get them to that next level, and bring a parade through D.C.
The Capitals need help more on defense, and a defenseman’s going to be cheaper to acquire. From an asset management standpoint, I can’t imagine it making sense to trade for Kovalchuk.
I heard on NHL Live today that Neidermeyer is gonna stay a Duck until he retires; more speculation. We have the cap room to acquire a big name, and I want to see an active Caps org. during the trade deadline. If they are serious about a Cup run, they need to go after a big name.
If they are serious about a Cup run, they need to go after a big name.
Sounds like you’re talking about the Redskins. Caps are equipped to make plenty of trouble as is, and plenty of Big Names to boot. I’d like to see a smart Caps org at the deadline, mindful that this year isnt necessarily their last best chance.
Except for the fact you would be committing 25+ million of your cap space to three forwards long-term. That’s not a good thing. I don’t think you’ll see more than three guys get 5+ year deals and that’s probably Ovie, Backstrom and Green.
"Ah, dinner. The perfect break between work and drunk." - Homer Simpson
I don’t want the Caps following the Hawks model. Unless of course you are really high on Campbell and Huet.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Jan 26, 2010 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
feels like more of a "Rangers" model
fantasy squad additions.
by DonnieKnutts on Jan 26, 2010 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
Let’s just add in that the Hawks model isn’t even all said and done. Sure, they’ve got some serious talent this year, but let’s withhold judgment until we see exactly how much talent they have to sell-off this summer.
Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.
Semin’s UFA market value is most definitely more than 6m.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 26, 2010 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
Clearly his high shooting percentage has nothing to do with his talents. It’s all random.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Jan 26, 2010 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
Here’s a pretty thought-provoking piece on Ilya
http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=436
In terms of behindthenet’s rating relative to team, Ilya’s +1, about the same as Semin. He’s a -3 Corsi, Semin is plus 12.8.
As for shooting , I could have been clearer. Kovie’s shooting almost 300 bps above his career average of 15.1. That’s been worth 5 goals this season. Results are results, but looking fwd I wouldn’t count on that as sustainable.
Kovie’s shooting almost 300 bps above his career average of 15.1. That’s been worth 5 goals this season. Results are results, but looking fwd I wouldn’t count on that as sustainable
Maybe not, but he’s also scored 40+ goals five times in five years, and 50+ twice in that span. It’s not like he’s a one year wonder.
2nd most goals since the lockout, most goals since 2001.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Jan 26, 2010 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
Have I argued that the guy can’t score goals?? Nope. I’ve said he’s not pushing you towards winning, in spite of how many times he puts the biscuit in the basket. Or at least there’s a lot of good statistical evidence that that’s the case.
Semin currently stands 21st in the league in scoring with 21G and 28A even though he has played significantly fewer games than many of the players ahead of him. His history shows that he plays well in the big games including the playoffs. He has been a consistent 30 goal scorer and those don’t grow on trees. I think the Caps will do everything within reason to keep Semin. I am not sure what kind of money he is looking for when he becomes an UFA but I hope the Caps can sign him to a longterm contract. He will be hard to replace and for those who think otherwise you will be sadly mistaken if he leaves.
Proud to be a Caps fan. Its a Great Day for Hockey.
He’s scored 30 twice I think. He has the talent for 50, or at least 40 with health.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Jan 26, 2010 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
Nice write-up. I agree that the two knocks on Semin are his inconsistency and bad penalties. I think he is unfairly criticized on the latter point (I haven’t looked at the stats for the former point).
Looking at Semin’s penalties taken per 60 minutes, his 1.2 is not all that bad. It ranks him tied for 52nd in the league. Knuble takes 1.5 per 60 minutes, tied for 23d in the league.
When you factor in penalties drawn per 60 minutes, Semin looks even better. He draws at 1.2/60. Essentially, his penalties taken and penalties drawn wash each other out. Knuble, by way of comparison, draws only 1.1/60, for a net penalty deficit of .4 per 60 minutes.
Here’s a list of some players I picked for sake of comparison. Complete list can be found at behindthenet.ca
Penalties Taken/60 minutes – Penalties Drawn/60 minutes
Avery 2.0 – 1.4
Downie 2.0 – 1.9
Malkin 1.7 – 2.1
Hartnell 1.6 – 1.2
Knuble 1.5 – 1.1
Getzlaf 1.5 – 0.7
Briere 1.4 – 1.8
Semin 1.2 – 1.2
Lecavalier 1.2 – 0.6
E. Staal 1.2 – 0.8
Crosby 1.1 – 1.3
Perry 1.1 – 0.7
Ovechkin 1.0 – 1.1
A slick skater and puck handler like Semin should draw more penalties than he takes, but that may be hurt by him seeming to have a reputation as a diver among refs.
But moving away from absolute numbers, Semin has been criticized more for the timing and type of penalties rather than the quantity. He was getting ripped early in the season for taking lazy penalties in the offensive zone in close games. Those just aren’t acceptable, but fortunately he has cut down on those types of penalties.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Jan 26, 2010 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The problem with criticisms like “he takes them at the wrong time” or “in the wrong place” is that they are essentially immune to rebuttal.
Well...
any penalty is at the wrong time, wrong place, almost, right?
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Jan 26, 2010 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
Well, yes, but most penalties I’d wager are not, no?
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Jan 26, 2010 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
To an extent, but some are at worse times and in worse places. A penalty for charging or interference because you are trying to finish your check is more excusable than a hooking penalty you take in the offensive zone because you aren’t moving your feet.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Jan 26, 2010 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, not really trying to disagree, just a small joke.
Ovechkin = Green Backs
by red army line on Jan 26, 2010 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
My point was more that there simply aren’t stats that can test the claim. It’s necessarily based on people’s subjective opinions of where and when penalties took place.
Until we have better data (and maybe it does exist and I just don’t know about), quantifying the zone in which penalties are taken, the time of game, and the score at the time, the claim that Semin takes an inordinate number of “bad” penalties cannot be tested, and in my opinion is therefore unreliable.
It is pretty subjective, yes. I’d say the easiest sign of something being a “bad” penalty is if it takes place in the offensive zone. In my mind – and this is obviously just my opinion – the only “good” penalty is either one that prevents a goal or one that comes as a result of sticking up for a teammate.
All of that stuff is available, can be tested and is objective. The zone, time and type of penalty aren’t subjective opinions, they are facts. Sure, it would take time to compile looking at score sheets, but it’s not the unfalsifiable claim you make it out to be.
And I am completely against writing off any argument that can’t be tested with stats when it comes to hockey. Stats help fill in the picture, but to a very large degree you have to use your eyes when doing player evaluation.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Jan 26, 2010 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If you know where I can find that data in useful (i.e, compiled) form, let me know. I couldn’t find it, but admittedly didn’t look all that long.
And I am completely against writing off any argument that can’t be tested with stats when it comes to hockey. Stats help fill in the picture, but to a very large degree you have to use your eyes when doing player evaluation.
We’ll just agree to disagree, then. Stats could absolutely refute the contention that Semin takes an inordinate number of bad penalties. There might be player qualities that cannot be tested with stats, but that is not one of them….if the stats were readily available, that is.
That second part is more of a general comment rather than one applied to this particular argument. Stats can work in this case to determine the amounts of penalties Semin is taking, but they are incomplete tools for player evaluation as a whole. I was really just disagreeing with this part of your comment:
cannot be tested, and in my opinion is therefore unreliable
I don’t agree that when discussing hockey players that an opinion is unreliable or invalid because it can’t be proven with stats.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Jan 26, 2010 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Penalty Tracker, via the left sidebar.
Of 13 total penalties on the sheet, Semin’s taken 9(!) in the offensive zone. Anything taken in the offensive zone is likely to be a “bad” penalty and anything taken on the powerplay is even more likely to be a “bad” penalty. I don’t have data on what the score was when these were taken, but it’s not unidentifiable and a lot of the data is readily available.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jan 26, 2010 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That is outstanding work. Got data for other seasons? 9/13 probably is among the worst in the league, but it’s not the biggest of samples.
I want to say DMG wrote it? I don’t remember – Natty probably does, but I’m not blessed with his recall.
I’m not sure what the source data is either, heh. You’d have to ask the author if they did, but I find it a very useful resource. Something I just noticed, though – it reads last updated on 1/11. There’s been some hockey between here and there so I’m not sure what the current stats are.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jan 26, 2010 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
They are somewhat immune to rebuttal by just looking at numbers, but not by watching the game. I think it was pretty clear early in the season that Semin was taking bad offensive zone penalties late in games, and now he isn’t doing that as often recently.
But if you want to look at stats to counter it you can fairly easily categorize the type of penalty Semin takes, the zone in which he takes the penalty, and the score/time of the penalty (and I believe there is a penalty tracker that someone here has been creating that does most of that). Looking at the type and context of the penalties you can get a pretty good idea if someone is taking penalties of effort or taking bad lazy penalties.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Jan 26, 2010 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, we’re in agreement then. I just question the reliability of the anecdotal evidence that Semin’s penalties were any worse than, say, Knuble’s.
Well Knuble has had a penchant for taking bad penalties as well, so I’m not sure that’s the best comparison to make.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Jan 26, 2010 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
According to the Penalty Tracker, Knuble’s taken 12 penalties this year, 3 in the offensive zone, 3 in the neutral zone and 6 in the defensive zone and two of the 12 were on the PP.
Semin’s at 9 in the offensive zone, 1 in the neutral zone and 3 in the defensive zone. 1 out of the 13 were on the PP.
Subjectively, I can remember both of them taking costly penalties when the game is close late, but Semin taking 9 in the O-zone and 4 everywhere else is a bit ridiculous.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jan 26, 2010 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Forgive me if I’m reading it wrong, but I don’t see “period taken” on that chart. That would be nice to know as well.
Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.
I don’t see it either and I have no idea what the actual numbers are for that. I guess if we really wanted to find out, we could go through the game logs for the season by hand, but I’m not that interested at this point.
Only YOU can prevent idiots from commenting!
by Knee high to a duck on Jan 27, 2010 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
Nice, thanks for looking that up. I knew Semin was prone to offensive zone penalties, but I didn’t think it was that lopsided. Semin also has a higher percentage of restraining fouls compared to physical fouls than does Knuble. Not that physical fouls can’t be dumb, but restraining fouls are generally the type that occur when you aren’t moving your feet.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Jan 26, 2010 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
A slick skater and puck handler like Semin should draw more penalties than he takes, but that may be hurt by him seeming to have a reputation as a diver among refs.
This reputation may or may not be enhanced by the pre-game briefing the referees are given on things to watch out for…
I need a snappy signature...
We wouldn’t be having an upbeat discussion about Semin if the Wings pulled that game out 2-1, with Semin’s 3rd period giveaway the cause of DET’s 2nd goal. Nonetheless, even I – a noted Semin antagonist – have to acknowledge that the number of key, game-altering mistakes he’s made have decreased as the year’s progressed. I hope it’s a permanent trend but I’m not 100% convinced yet – 24 games just isn’t enough of a sample size.
Despised in all cities except Washington and Quebec.
by Kareem E. on Jan 26, 2010 3:32 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Well said, and I agree – even as a noted Semin antagonist. That’s why I think David made a good point, that it IS kind of a small sample size to determine anything concrete just yet. It’s nice to see right now, at least.
And as with everyone else on this damn team…I make my final judgment this spring.
that oft-mentioned giveaway against Detroit
as much Ovie’s fault as it was Semin’s.
by DonnieKnutts on Jan 26, 2010 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
Completely disagree. Ovechkin flew the zone early, but that is much more excusable than Semin making a drop pass inside his own blueline. Semin HAS to get the puck out at that point, and while AO did leave the zone too early leaving Rafalski open it is not unreasonable for AO to expect Semin to get the puck out of the zone (like he is supposed to) and make an aggressive play to create an offensive chance.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Jan 26, 2010 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
still disagree
the way the play unfolded, #28’s options were limited…Semin and a Red Wing were already battling for the initial pass from Backstrom, and given the position of his stick, his options were 1) throw it reverse forehand toward the boards or 2) try a backhand lateral clear, in the direction of two Red Wings players…to put the blame for that goal squarely on Semin, as many here did, seems unfair.
by DonnieKnutts on Jan 26, 2010 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
First, I didn’t say the sole blame lay on Semin, just that he deserves more of the blame than Ovechkin. Second, even if he couldn’t hit AO for a breakaway, he could have easily chipped it up the boards, he had clean possession of the puck. Getting the puck up the boards and out is ALWAYS the decision Semin should make instead of throwing it along the blueline (and not out) on your backhand.
To put it more concisely, while AO made a mistake, there were understandable reasons for him to do what he did. What Semin did is never a good idea.
Of all our iniquities ignorance may be the worst
by Killer_Carlson on Jan 26, 2010 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
not to keep this going
But, to keep this going: Semin never had “clean possession of the puck”… watch it again
by DonnieKnutts on Jan 27, 2010 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
Minor Nitpick
Semin scored shorthanded against ATL a couple weeks back. All around good stuff though, DMG.
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