Why do the Capitals lack offense from their defense?
When I was watching the Caps vs. the Leafs the other night, CSN showed a stat that got me thinking. In comparing two of the best offensive defensemen in the game, Green and Kaberle, the stats showed that these guys scored half their points on the power play. I began to wonder, is scoring half your total points on the PP normal for a defenseman? If it is, could this perhaps be the smoking gun in why the Capitals seem to lack offensive output from any defender not named Green? (Ignoring Poti's very nice output from just the last couple of games)
Lots more after the jump.
Whenever we, as fans, talk about the Capital's powerplay, there are always a few constants that have to enter the conversation. First, Green and Ovechkin play the point. This is important because by having a forward play a defensive position, it denies a defenseman from having the opportunity to contribute on the powerplay and hence contribute to more points from the defense. Of course, this move also undeniably contributes to our powerplay being more effective, but that really isn't the issue for this piece. The second issue that rears its head is shift length. Ovechkin and Green play on the points until either the Caps score or until the power play is over. Again, this doesn't create an opportunity for another defenseman to help the team or his own scoring stats. Could strategy then be the source of the lack of offensive production from the blue line, rather than effort or skill issues?
I spent part of a day rampaging around the internet trying to find the stats that could help me check this. Behindthenet.ca has a huge amount of stats, and some of them are even understandable to a layman, but they didn't have what I was looking for. I wanted simple, raw data stats (for a simple mind) rather than massaged stats that tell a bigger picture all on their own. So where did I find what I wanted? Where I should have started in the first place, NHL.com. They have a very nice stat section with a very easy and usable filter. Good job by whomever handles their internet content.
First, I want to say I'm not going to run a comparison against the entire league. I don't have the time. However, I will compare against the other top teams in the Eastern Conference. These teams should be representative of teams that get good contributions from their entire squad, so should provide good numbers to compare against. They may not be a true average of the NHL, but since we think that the Caps are in the upper tier of the NHL, I think they should be compared against upper tier teams instead of just a baseline average anyway.
| 1 | Mike Green | WSH | D | 46 | 820:14 | 17:49 | 101:43 | 2:12 | 234:42 | 5:06 | 1,156:39 | 25:08 | 1,143 | 24.8 | |
| 2 | Tom Poti | WSH | D | 39 | 639:48 | 16:24 | 136:55 | 3:30 | 49:08 | 1:15 | 825:51 | 21:10 | 1,026 | 26.3 | |
| 3 | Jeff Schultz | WSH | D | 40 | 657:26 | 16:26 | 110:06 | 2:45 | 11:03 | 0:16 | 778:35 | 19:27 | 917 | 22.9 | |
| 4 | Shaone Morrisonn | WSH | D | 37 | 545:22 | 14:44 | 70:58 | 1:55 | 0:48 | 0:01 | 617:08 | 16:40 | 855 | 23.1 | |
| 5 | Brian Pothier | WSH | D | 32 | 516:56 | 16:09 | 16:19 | 0:30 | 40:28 | 1:15 | 573:43 | 17:55 | 686 | 21.4 | |
| 6 | John Erskine | WSH | D | 31 | 468:29 | 15:06 | 39:42 | 1:16 | 2:10 | 0:04 | 510:21 | 16:27 | 629 | 20.3 | |
| 7 | Milan Jurcina | WSH | D | 27 | 405:32 | 15:01 | 62:52 | 2:19 | 2:29 | 0:05 | 470:53 | 17:26 | 621 | 23.0 | |
| 8 | Tyler Sloan | WSH | D | 25 | 308:52 | 12:21 | 18:57 | 0:45 | 1:25 | 0:03 | 329:14 | 13:10 | 413 | 16.5 | |
| 9 | Karl Alzner | WSH | D | 14 | 209:10 | 14:56 | 26:35 | 1:53 | 2:26 | 0:10 | 238:11 | 17:00 | 291 | 20.8 | |
| 10 | John Carlson | WSH | D | 4 | 56:17 | 14:04 | 0:41 | 0:10 | 0:04 | 0:01 | 57:02 | 14:15 | 64 | 16.0 |
Well, at least our eyes aren't deceiving us. Yep, Mike Green gets a ton of ice time on the PP, while other guys don't. Poti and Pothier, our other "offensive" D-men do get a little time.
| 1 | Mike Green | WSH | D | 46 | 6 | 18 | 24 | 6 | 17 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | Tom Poti | WSH | D | 39 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | Brian Pothier | WSH | D | 32 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | Karl Alzner | WSH | D | 14 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | Jeff Schultz | WSH | D | 40 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | John Erskine | WSH | D | 31 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | Tyler Sloan | WSH | D | 25 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | Shaone Morrisonn | WSH | D | 37 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | Milan Jurcina | WSH | D | 27 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | John Carlson | WSH | D | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
In the case of Green, he has scored 23 of his 48 points on the powerplay. With one point shorthanded, that is darned near half his points. Similarly Poti, who at least gets a little time on the PP, also scores half his points on the special teams, 5 of his 10. Pothier, the only other significant power play contributor from the blue line, is lagging behind in percentage, with only 25% of his points on special teams. Of course, the true outlier is Schultz. The second leading scorer from the blue line, all 13 of his points come at full strength because he gets about zero time on the power play. BB just hasn't learned to respect the awesomeness of his 170 foot slap shot I guess.
In total, the defense has contributed 115 points, 30 of it on the PP. That is 26%.
Next lets take a look at Eastern Conference leading New Jersey.
Eh, apparently my cut and pasting of stats from NHL.com got too large to be saved as a post very quickly. Oh well, you will have to take my word on the numbers from here and check them if you see anything you disagree with.
Jersey has 4 guys who get a significant amount of PP time. Greene and Murphy over 3 minutes per game, and Martin and Oduya get around 2 minutes a game. (Eckford got over 2 minutes, but only played 2 games) I would guess this means they play 2 defensmen on a power play line, and roll 2 lines, with a bit of more time given to one line. Green has 11 of 23 points on the PP. Martin has 100% of his points on the PP, but only has 1 point. Murphy has 1 of his 2 points on the powerplay, and Oduya has only two points and both came even strength. There isn't too much scoring here to really work with, but the trend seems to be that New Jersey's blue liners get a fair amount of their opportunities to score on the PP. New Jersey's defense has only contributed 59 points total this year, and 15 total points have come from special teams, 25.4%. White and Salvador have 18 points between them, but don't get much PP time and haven't scored on the PP.
Next up is Buffalo. Like the Devils, the Sabers use 4 defensemen on their power play. Myers and Butler each average over 3 minutes a game, and Rivet plays over 2 minutes, and Sekera a minute and a half. Myers has 9 of 26 points on the PP, Butler 9 of 14, Rivet 6 of 11, and Sekera 1 of 6. Montador and Tallinder have 23 points between them, but non of them on the PP and don't get significant PP time. The defense has contributed 91 points, 25 on the power play for a percentage of 27.5.
I'm starting to see a trend here. Defensemen who play on the power play seem to roughly average 50% of their scoring on the power play. Those numbers seem to line up with Washington's production. Teams seem to score about 25% of their total blue line production on the power play, which Washington also falls in line with. Teams also seem to have a pair of defensemen that score without power play time, which Washington only has one of with Schultz. However, Washington actually gets more production from their blue line overall.
Lets see if Pittsburgh continues the trend. The Penguins significantly use 4 defensemen on the power play, with a bit more playing time for Gonchar than the 4th leading defender. Gonchar averages over 5 minutes of PP time a night, Goligoski 3:41, Letang 2:56, and Eaton 1:19. Gonchar has scored 14 of 27 points on the PP, Goligoski 8 of 22, Letang 4 of 15, and Eaton 1 of 11. Pittsburgh seems to rely a little less on the power play to get their defensive points, with the exception of Gonchar who has scored over 50% of his points on the PP. However, these numbers may be a little skewed by the fact that Pittsburgh's power play has struggled overall, so there just hasn't been as much scoring on the PP period. In all, the Penguin's defenders have produced 111 total points, of which 28 have been on the PP, for 25.2%
In conclusion, even though we as fans don't feel like our defense contributes enough offensively, the numbers tell a different story. Our defense scores as well as any squad in the East, and isn't relying upon PP goals any more than any other squad. The fact that so much of those numbers are produced by Mike Green is really more of a result of him playing so much power play time as it is of our other guys not scoring. Also, the fact that we don't use 2 defensemen on the majority of our PP also limits their individual productivity. I would imagine that our defense would show as top in the league if we counted the goals Ovechkin scores from the point on the PP as points from our defense.
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it’s important to find d-men who can work on the point. vancouver was having tons of trouble with that last year, and we were constantly putting a 4th forward out instead. over the summer, gillis signed schneider in hopes that he could take the point. it worked well for a while with him paired up with salo (we were thinking “wow, now this is what we’ve been waiting for!”), but then he started not playing too well, and now he’s with the moose.
i haven’t been watching too closely, but i think ehrhoff is getting lots of time on the PP now, so i think he may have taken over that position.
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You guys seem to be sticking with 4 dmen on the PP though. Edler and Ehrhoff average over 3 minutes of PP with Bieksa and Salo (and Schneider when he was there) getting 2:53 and 2:30.
Erhoff gets 17 of 23 points on the PP, Edler 13 of 24, Bieksa 6 of 16, and Salo 4 of 13. Your top scorers from the blue line are really relying on the PP to score. And, like Schultz from the Caps, you have Willie Mitchell throwing in 11 points with none on the PP.
Overall Vancouver has gotten 99 total points from the defense, 42 on the PP, for an average of 42.4%. The Canucks would really look like they were lacking defensive point contributions if it weren’t for the opportunities on the PP.
by HateOffSeason on Jan 17, 2010 9:16 PM EST up reply actions
I think the lack of point production from the defense has little to do with the players involved when put on comparison with the system. The Capitals only really have three guys who you expect to put up any form of offensive numbers, and they wear 2, 3, and 52 on their backs. However, when at the point, they’re not often encouraged to just jump into the offense unless they’re Mike Green, and lately Tom Poti. More to that point, when a player gets a the puck at the point, most of the time a pass follows, or a dump to the corner. Rarely do they just toss the puck at the net. The Caps system seems to be based more on the counter attack, and then keeping the puck in the attacking zone and in circulation. The mindset seems silly, given the massive production of Mike Green, but it’s how I’ve seen it.
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But the point is that the system actually does work, and even though the point production is heavily slanted towards Mike Green, the contributions from the blue line are very similar to other top teams. However, with this system, as shown in last years post season, if Green is injured, our blue line is in trouble.
For this reason, I am actually more interested in John Carlson joining the team long term than Karl Alzner. Hopefully both players will be major factors for the caps for years, but with the style we play, Carlson is the one who will really make a difference and keep our backend from falling apart if Green is off his game.
by HateOffSeason on Jan 18, 2010 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
I haven’t even gotten through all of this year, but there’s definitely some good stuff here. Rec-worthy for sure. My initial response is “because most of our D are sub-average with the puck” but I think you’re right that there is probably some other stuff going on. Will check back in when I finish digesting this.
Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.
Again, this is all from a guy who just watches hockey and has never played. I was just looking for a pattern that made sense.
I have to think there are a lot of teams, maybe all of them, who think they have a lot of dmen who suck with the puck. If they were all good with the puck in the offensive zone, we would have more wingers and less defenders.
And, I still think there is something to the fact that our dmen seem to have issues getting shots through without being blocked. We don’t really have big hard shooters on the blue line, but more shots getting through would have to equal more deflections and rebound goals. But I’m not sure I really know a way to quantify that.
This just seemed to really jump out at me. We have one guy who gets 5 minutes of ice time a night, and two that barely get a minute. That just sucks. And, my eyes could be deceiving me, but it seems like there is just fewer minutes played on the PP in general for the Caps period. Might have to check that. Do we stink at drawing penalties?
by HateOffSeason on Jan 21, 2010 6:34 AM EST up reply actions

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