This Just In: Getting Varlamov Back will be Good

by Kolzilla on Jan 14, 2010 10:27 AM EST

Just how much will Semyon Varlamov’s return help the Caps? They’re doing well enough without him, given that they’re one of five teams in the NHL with 60 or more points. However, there’s little doubt that getting him back healthy will provide a massive boost.

With Varlamov out, the Caps have had to rely on Jose Theodore and Michal Neuvirth. In 35 games played between the two of them, Neuvirth/Theodore (Thoevirth?) have combined to post a lackluster .896 save percentage. Compare that to the other goaltenders that get the most starts for teams with 60 or more points.

Ryan Miller (Buf) GP: 37 Sv %: .935

Martin Brodeur (NJD) GP: 42 Sv %: .925

Evgeni Nabokov (SJS) GP : 41 Sv%: .924

Cristobal Huet (CHI) GP: 33 Sv%: .908

On the other hand, Theovirth’s save percentage is tied with Brian Boucher of the Flyers for fifth worst in the NHL among qualified goalies. Below them are Brian Elliott and Pascal Leclaire of the Senators, who just fired their goaltending coach, followed by Steve Mason and Vesa Toskala. Not good.

What’s that you say? The other teams with 60 or more points have better defense than the Capitals? That seems like a valid argument, since the Devils, Blackhawks and Sabres are first, second and third respectively in goals against average. The Sharks aren’t far behind at seventh. Meanwhile, the Caps are down at 17th on that list.

The only flaw in that argument is that Varlamov posted a .924 save percentage in his 16 games played before getting hurt. The Capitals’ supposedly-suspect defense somehow held opponents to a 2.21 GAA in his starts (Buffalo’s is 2.22).

In the end, only so many excuses can be made for goaltenders, and the goalie play in Washington has ranged from inconsistent to highly suspect of late. Thankfully, Varlamov is set to return from injury soon. Once he does, a lot of the issues that have plagued the team, like the brutal penalty killing and the inconsistent defensive play, will seem far less glaring.

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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FWIW IIRC Caps were in the 9-12 positions before these last two games (11 GA).

More important is the Caps play with confidence in Varly, that he WILL make the big save. It’s the whole * mind game again.

by red army line on Jan 14, 2010 12:40 PM EST reply actions

In baseball, the box score includes runs, hits and errors, and errors are not counted in calculating a pitcher’s ERA. I think the errors stat gives some sense of how the defense performs in a given ballgame. It’s possible to discuss batting average with runners in scoring position, debate the fine points of zone ratings vs. range factors for fielders, and so on and so forth

While I can see a difference in effectiveness in the goaltenders, I’m not as sure of how to look at a stat line and pick out an equivalent of errors (which I would describe as a skater putting a puck in his own net) or zone factors (which I would describe as skaters being up ice on a bad line change or just plain lost).

by miseenjeu on Jan 15, 2010 7:58 AM EST reply actions

That's a neat concept...

How many of the goals are the goalie’s fault directly, vs. how many are the defense leaving the goalie hanging out to dry, or someone making a bad turnover… that could be correlated off the play-by-play, if someone had time to read through it all…

I need a snappy signature...

by IRockTheRed on Jan 15, 2010 8:31 AM EST up reply actions

I’ve wondered why the play by play stat sheets don’t indicate which goals are deflections off the defending team, which I think would be the closest thing to the “error” concept in baseball. Since the scorekeepers assign credit for assists to the scoring team, I’d think they’d know when the puck touched a defending player before going into the net.

I think correlating the positioning would be a lot more cumbersome, but probably could be done with a stop action video (provided useful angles were available, which might not happen in Pittsburgh, cough, cough…). But in baseball, that becomes a fairly esoteric discussion — keeping Bill James and SABRmetricians happy for hours, days and weeks at a time.

by miseenjeu on Jan 16, 2010 7:44 AM EST up reply actions

Varly’s injuries have given Neuvirth some time to gain experience at the NHL level, I just hope we didn’t shred his confidence completely, the last two games. Its seems like he may need some more play time to adjust to the NHL level. I’d like to see him get another start soon, as we really need him to be an option.

Since we’re in control of the SouthEast at the moment, there isn’t much to be concerned about. But we really need Varly for the playoffs.

by Be All You Can Berube on Jan 15, 2010 12:00 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

I don’t think back-to-backs have shredded it; improvise and adapt.

Oh, and awesome pic/name combo.

"I must be hallucinating. What's a good thing for a hangover?"
"Drinking heavily the night before."

by Bald Pollack on Jan 15, 2010 5:22 PM EST up reply actions

Your probably right, but I’m hoping improvise and adapt doesn’t mean lay down and die for Neuvirth’s sake.

and, Thanks, I’ve always been a fan of the hardworking goon.

by Be All You Can Berube on Jan 15, 2010 5:52 PM EST up reply actions

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