The Capital's Offense: Best We've Seen Post-Lockout?
by J.P. on Jan 12, 2010 11:00 AM EST
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PrintWith a touchdown and a successful two-point conversion in Atlanta on Saturday night, the Washington Capitals' offense has jumped out to a huge lead in goals per game among the League's thirty teams. How huge? Heading into Tuesday night's action, the Caps are scoring more than 12% more goals per game than their closest competition in that metric (Chicago), and 30% more than the League average. Oh, and their top top two goal scorers (by last year's totals) have each missed approximately one-fifth of the season.
But where does this team compare to the most prolific offenses the League has seen since the lockout (or, as it should be called, "The Ovechkin Era")? Let's take a look at the only teams since the start of the 2005-06 season to top 3.5 goals per game (click on team name for a closer look at that squad):
So the Caps' offensive production so far this season relative to the League average is better than any of the other teams on the list and they've done less of it on the power play than all but the '06-'07 Sabres. And what about depth of scoring? Here are the same teams:
* Projected based on current scoring rates for players on the current roster playing all 38 remaining games (and yes, Jason Chimera counts). In case you're wondering, the projected 30-goal guys are Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom and Tomas Fleischmann.
Given how much the Caps are scoring relative to the rest of the League and the depth of that scoring, it's easy to argue that the Caps are the League's most prolific post-lockout offense. Certainly the Caps compare favorably to these other four squads. Of course, not one of the four won the Cup... so this is where we hope the comparisons end.
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It was sarcasm.
A man gotta have a code
by Carl Putnam on Jan 12, 2010 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
It was sarcasm so the word “need” was used. Garrioch’s logic was the main target.
Also, several posters have said they ’want" him. Is that the majority opinion around here? Thankfully no.
A man gotta have a code
by Carl Putnam on Jan 12, 2010 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
I want him. I think you’d have to crazy not to. But throw in the context of what it’d probably take to get him and…
by David Getz on Jan 12, 2010 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don’t think anyone on this site can truthfully admit that they’ve never dreamed about having having another elite talent like Kovalchuk in DC. But I’m guessing the majority also recognizes that it’s probably a pipe dream as you have to consider what it will cost the team to rent him AND what it will cost to keep him.
/I love stating the obvious.
Obvious, but totally on target Yoshie.
Context is everything. I’d love to have him as well, but not given what getting him and keeping him would probably mean. Plus, this team another more pressing need.
A man gotta have a code
by Carl Putnam on Jan 12, 2010 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
Well said. I suppose it’s just me getting caught up in wanting someone in an ideal world and wanting someone in the reality of the situation – in other words, being unnecessarily nit-picky.
Fair enough. To be honest, it’s a knee-jerk reaction to comments I’ve seen saying or implying the Caps wouldn’t benefit from having the guy because their offense is good…but it ain’t that good.
But it’s also not really fair to bug CP2 about it – or to J.P. for sending the discussion on his hard work into a tangent.
Apologies, gents.
But it’s also not really fair to bug CP2 about it – or to J.P. for sending the discussion on his hard work into a tangent.
I agree about going off on the full tangent…but I think it* is a component that should be brought up in this discussion as the stats/analysis JP provided can be used to determine what the team does or does not need.
*"it" being defined as players such as Kovalchuk
I was just busting balls.
I know the real reason is you’re just bitter that you haven’t been able to trade for him in NHL’10. Turns out EA Waddell isn’t as crazy as real Waddell.
Exactly. To use a ridiculous example, if the Caps could land Kovy for a 2nd round pick, how do you not make that deal?
To use an equaly ridiculous opposite end of the spectrum example, if Waddell is asking for Varlamov, Carlson, Alzner and a 1st and a 2nd, GMGM has to laugh and hang up the phone.
Stranger things have happened, and if there aren’t too many teams with the cap space to add Kovy, the asking price could end up less than what we think.
In a salary cap world, the Buyers set the market because there are fewer buyers IN the market.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Jan 12, 2010 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
In a salary cap world, the Buyers set the market because there are fewer buyers IN the market.
I’ve always felt that the cap has shifted the market in favor of sellers by increasing parity and thus increasing the number of teams with a shot at the playoffs and decreasing the number that are clearly out of the running by the deadline. Of course, the three point game and the shootout have had a lot to do with that as well…
increasing the number of teams with a shot at the playoffs and decreasing the number that are clearly out of the running by the deadline
The number of sellers is fewer thanks to the 3 point game and parity in the league, but in the “New NHL” the big market clubs can’t just add every large contract they covet. They’re are less sellers, but there also seem to be less buyers. Its kind of hard to quantify the final effect, but Hossa went for less than many expected him to.
That being said, I actually just crunched some numbers. Assuming there are 42 NHL days left after the trade deadline, Kovy’s 6.4 million cap number comes in at $33,160.62 per day (cap hit divided by 193, the number of days in this NHL season), a team would only need $1,392,746.11 in Cap room to add him. Much less than I had originally thought.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Jan 12, 2010 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
Without subtracting a player from their NHL roster, all but 9 teams could absorb the Kovalchuk cap hit at the trade deadline. Granted a lot of those teams aren’t in the running for the playoffs and will likely be sellers but on paper its a more open field that I first thought.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Jan 12, 2010 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
At the end of last season I looked at the past two playoffs and the teams that scored the most goals went farther than the teams that had the best goals against average, including the Stanley Cup champs in both years being the leading goal scorers in the playoffs, that bodes well for strong offensive teams in the post-lockout playoffs.
DC, where Hockey is a baffling ordeal.
by Chris meet Alex on Jan 12, 2010 11:07 AM EST reply actions
True, but bother were also nowhere near the playoff lead in goals against in the playoffs so even with hot netminders they weren’t able to keep the scores down and thus needed the O to put them over the top.
DC, where Hockey is a baffling ordeal.
by Chris meet Alex on Jan 12, 2010 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
er, “True but both were”
DC, where Hockey is a baffling ordeal.
by Chris meet Alex on Jan 12, 2010 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
Not to sound flippant…but that’s not completely true.
2007-08 (DET wins): Osgood – GAA #1/SV% #2 and Fleury – GAA #2/SV% #1
2008-09 (PIT wins): Fleury – GAA#7/SV%#8 —take out the WSH series and both of those numbers change dramatically….and Osgood GAA #2/SV% #4
I was going off memory, which likely can be (and seems to be) faulty. I also was thinking of team GAA, but I doubt that either of those two situations had other goalies in for any serious time, so I’m sure you’re right.
DC, where Hockey is a baffling ordeal.
by Chris meet Alex on Jan 12, 2010 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
Not even as good as it could be.
As crazy as it may sound to tout our defense in this regard, with Pothier and Poti asserting themselves on the rush and otherwise in the offensive zone as of late, it really adds the “third type of heat” that has been somewhat missing this season (when Greenie is off the ice.)
It makes guys like Knuble, Brooks, Chimera, Stecks line, etc more productive, and forces the Caps to play a little more physical around the net as opposed to the pond hockey that we gravitate too. (Mind you, pond hockey is our bread in butter, in a way, but when we are at our best is when we mix all of the elements together: skill, physicality, aggressiveness.)
If we see this consistent energy and skill out of our blueline in the offensive zone… this could truly be a remarkable reason for goal scoring in DC.
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 12, 2010 11:11 AM EST reply actions
reason=season
I am so newb. Can I edit these posts?
by Bushwood Bushwhacker on Jan 12, 2010 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
What was surprising to me (partly because I’m working on an unrelated FanPost) was how abundant the individual offensive accomplishments were in that first post-lockout year.
Consider that since the lockout, the 40 goal mark has been reached 39 times, and the 100 point mark 19 times. 11 of those 39 (and 7 of the latter 19) occurred in ‘05-’06.
"I must be hallucinating. What's a good thing for a hangover?"
"Drinking heavily the night before."
And I bet if you split that first year in half, the individual stats would be disproportionately first-half-heavy thanks to the ridiculous over-officiating of those first few months.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Quickly looked at game logs and there were a lot of January and February dates in there, for sure.
"I must be hallucinating. What's a good thing for a hangover?"
"Drinking heavily the night before."
by Bald Pollack on Jan 12, 2010 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
"Of course, not one of the four won the Cup..."
Any talk of the Caps’ dominance must be tempered by this fact.
Peerless did a wonderful analysis of the complete domination in the regular season that the Ottawa Senators enjoyed for years, resulting in exactly zero Cups. They used to humiliate teams by amazing scores of 10-2, 8-3….you’d wonder why they didnt win 2 or 3 Cups with all that talent.
What do we think it was about those Sens teams that doomed them in the playoffs? Because they had the third best GAA in the league 2005-2006. They even had serviceable goaltending in the form of Hasek.
Nobody likes this as a good answer to questions like that but sometimes loses (and especially short-series playoff losses) are simply statistically aberrations. It is a VERY small sample for a single team. Likely the larger sample of “like teams” to them do much better over a longer period of time.
DC, where Hockey is a baffling ordeal.
by Chris meet Alex on Jan 12, 2010 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
When the Sens went to their only Cup finals against Anaheim, Ray Emery was in goal, but I dont think Emery was to blame.
Anaheim was a hard hitting, fierce forechecking squad that also had an elite backline with Nieds and Pronger leading the way. You’ll recall that everyone was saying that the Ducks were the new SCF prototype, big hitters, nasty, with great goaltending and decently skilled forwards.
by S h a g g y on Jan 12, 2010 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
And the East was real weak that year. OTT won 3 series 4-1 against the East and was dominated in the SCF.
Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.
Caps' goals/game since the lockout:
‘05-’06: 2.80 (23rd)
‘06-’07: 2.85 (17th)
‘07-’08: 2.90 (8th)
‘08-’09: 3.27 (3rd)
‘09-’10: 3.61 (1st)
Nice upward trend, eh?
"It's like, how much more black could this be? And the answer is none. None more black."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Jan 12, 2010 11:14 AM EST reply actions
If you look at each of those team’s playoff performance the year they made the list, they are all over the map. In fact, the only finish not represented is a Cup! So there is a pattern!
2005-2006 Wings – Lost Conference Quarter-Finals
2005-2006 Senators – Lost Conference Semi-Finals
2006-2007 Sabres – Lost Conference Finals
2008-2009 Wings – Lost Stanley Cup Finals
2009-2010 Caps – ???
I actually didn’t realize when doing that list, that it is chronologically better each year.
Caps are due!!!
A few years ago when the Caps weren’t scoring as well, people kept asking for “More O, more O” on various blogs. I’m not sure when the Old Rink started, but if it was around I wasn’t on it.
I pointed out on one such blog that Colorado – who was still seen as a perrenial playoff favorite – had just as few goals as the Caps, but it was the goals against that was significantly better.
It might be interesting to see comparatively the regular season GAA of the eventual Stanley Cup winners since the lockout. If I get some time maybe I can work it out.
"I'm not adopted and I'm not an Indian. It's just a coincidence that I have a love of gambling and booze and a knack for catching syphilis." -Jerri Blank
Goals against per game
05-06 Canes 3.15 (19th)
06-07 Ducks 2.42 (7th)
07-08 Wings 2.18 (1st)
08-09 Pens 2.84 (17th)
"It's like, how much more black could this be? And the answer is none. None more black."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Jan 12, 2010 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
For the teams listed above:
05-06 Sens 2.50 (2nd)
05-06 Wings 2.51 (3rd)
06-07 Sabres 2.90 (13th)
08-09 Wings 2.93 (20th)
"It's like, how much more black could this be? And the answer is none. None more black."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Jan 12, 2010 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
Wow, you rock
the red, or something
"I'm not adopted and I'm not an Indian. It's just a coincidence that I have a love of gambling and booze and a knack for catching syphilis." -Jerri Blank
Given how different play can be in the regular season vs postseason I’m wonder how good regular season stats are for predicting postseason success in general. I see another Rink post coming…
A man gotta have a code
by Carl Putnam on Jan 12, 2010 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
Now THAT is an great idea. I’d love to see what that would look like.
DC, where Hockey is a baffling ordeal.
by Chris meet Alex on Jan 12, 2010 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed. The above data doesn’t say much to me at all, honestly.
"It's like, how much more black could this be? And the answer is none. None more black."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Jan 12, 2010 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
If it’s not too crazy of an addition how about comparing the whole regular season stats to the post season AND comparing the stats from the very end of the season to the post season to see if how you’re rollin at the end means something. (Wonder how many games that should entail? last what… 20? 10?)
DC, where Hockey is a baffling ordeal.
by Chris meet Alex on Jan 12, 2010 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
I think that is a great idea. Imagine the difference in PIT numbers from last year if you compared the last 10-20 vs. whole season.
A man gotta have a code
by Carl Putnam on Jan 12, 2010 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
Insta-Rec when that premiers.
DC, where Hockey is a baffling ordeal.
by Chris meet Alex on Jan 12, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
Bottom line is no regular/playoff season collection of of goals for, goals prevented, pp/pk success, corsi ratings, +/-, or combined stats avg of any kind guarantees playoff success.
The thing is the playoffs themselves are too small a sample size , which is why a hot goaltender, a fluky Druce scoring streak, etc can shake things up in a given playoff year regardless of the era.
It is true that once you make it into the playoffs in a given year one of these fluky things can affect the outcome. The difference between the recent Lightning and Hurricanes playoff performances, and teams like the 80’s Oilers, and certain other more recent “dynasties” of power is that the dynasty team may not win in a given year, but they get a lot of shots at it, as opposed to the teams that rely on a bit of luck/magic to win one year.
The Caps are trying to make those choices for long-term success as we’ve seen in personnel moves and non-moves in recent years. But if the Caps want to have a legitimate shot for a number of years, then that involves striving to play 60 minutes of disciplined, smart hockey on both ends for 82 regular season games. Let others play the “2 points is 2 points” / “lets just get in this year and roll the dice” game
"I'm not adopted and I'm not an Indian. It's just a coincidence that I have a love of gambling and booze and a knack for catching syphilis." -Jerri Blank
Bingo. I love playing golf against people who delight in a mis-hit that has a great result… I’ll take the better swings every time.
DC, where Hockey is a baffling ordeal.
by Chris meet Alex on Jan 12, 2010 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
Playoff stats for the Cup winners:
05-06 Canes 2.92 GF/G (5th), 2.40 GA/G (3rd)
06-07 Ducks 2.76 GF/G (4th), 2.14 GA/G (3rd)
07-08 Wings 3.27 GF/G (1st), 1.86 GA/G (1st)
08-09 Pens 3.29 GF/G (2nd), 2.67 GA/G (5th)
"It's like, how much more black could this be? And the answer is none. None more black."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Jan 12, 2010 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
As I posted above, the playoffs recently have been about scoring goals. GAA hasn’t gotten teams very far.
DC, where Hockey is a baffling ordeal.
by Chris meet Alex on Jan 12, 2010 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
Well I’ve chimed in in this area in the past and there are lots of associated cliche’ for a reason things that can be said. A few off the top of my head:
You can’t win if you don’t score
The best defense is a good offense
The best offense is a good defense
Defense wins playoff games
The regular season sets the habits that determine playoff success (or failure)
Just make it to the playoffs and a hot goaltender can win the whole thing for you
If I had to choose between being #1 in GFA or #1 in GAA I’d choose the former, but you generally don’t get very far without some success on both sides
"I'm not adopted and I'm not an Indian. It's just a coincidence that I have a love of gambling and booze and a knack for catching syphilis." -Jerri Blank
a hot goaltender can win the whole thing for you
Canes Country agrees.
Support your local bakery!
by bigonetimer on Jan 12, 2010 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
Damn, what’s a brother got to do to get some love?
Signed,
C. Osgood
"I must be hallucinating. What's a good thing for a hangover?"
"Drinking heavily the night before."
by Bald Pollack on Jan 12, 2010 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Or four safeties. That happens all the time.
"It's like, how much more black could this be? And the answer is none. None more black."
by Laich It Or Lump It on Jan 12, 2010 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
Or 8 rouges
Everyone knows Custer died at Little Bighorn. What this book presupposes is... maybe he didn't?
Ron and Fez 11 to 3
Deals exclusively in punnery and poop jokes.
by YvonLabresMoustache on Jan 12, 2010 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
51 | 24 | 16 | 11 | 59 |
|
Washington
|
52 | 27 | 21 | 4 | 58 |
|
Winnipeg
|
54 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 54 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
51 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 51 |
|
Carolina
|
54 | 20 | 25 | 9 | 49 |
(updated 2.7.2012 at 3:17 AM EST)
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