With or Without You at Five-on-Five
by J.P. on Sep 8, 2009 11:00 AM EDT
64 comments
That the Washington Capitals are a better team with Alex Ovechkin on the ice at five-on-five than with him on the bench would probably be the least controversial assertion made in this space since we referred to Dane Cook as "unfunny." But how do we quantify how much better the Caps were during AO's shifts?
It's rather simple, really - take a look at the team's plus-minus while he was on the ice and compare it to the plus-minus rate when he was off the ice (thanks, BtN!). Needless to say, a positive differential here (i.e. a better +/-ON than +/-OFF) indicates that the team was better off with him than without him.
With that introduction out of the way, let's take a look at the numbers for the skaters who played at least twenty games for the Caps, with quality of competition and teammates thrown in for context (remember, this is all five-on-five):
And, just for fun, the two new guys:
Alright, so what've we got? A few observations:
- Naturally, the Young Guns are going to fare well here (and at everyone else's expense), given that they tended to be on and off ice together.
- For all of you "best defense is a good offense" believers, Alex Semin and Mike Green are your poster boys (though this doesn't account for penalties taken, so keep that in mind).
- Small sample and all, but Tyler Sloan has to impress here, especially in light of the low quality of the guys with whom he skated.
- Despite playing with vastly weaker teammates than AO, Eric Fehr ended up right on Ovie's tail here. Get well soon, Fehrsie. Seriously.
- Shaone Morrisonn played with relatively high quality teammates and against below average opposition, but still ended up on the wrong side of zero here (though not by much).
- Nylander. Oy.
- Checkers like Steckel and Bradley aren't going to look good here because when they're on the ice, AO and friends aren't, and vice versa, so Stecks and Brads et. al. will have bad +/-OFF ratings. To be expected.
- Did I say, "Nylander. Oy."? I meant Kozlov. Oy. Good riddance.
- Tom Poti played the toughest opposition to a standstill. He gets a pass here. Karl Alzner, too, to a lesser extent.
- Hopefully Chris Clark's miserable, miserable year is well behind him.
- How about B-Mo (and that was in a down year)?
There's more to take away from these numbers, but that's a start. You guys can finish it in the comments.
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How is QualTeam computed? I find it interesting that Semin has the highest rating for that metric out of anyone on the squad, despite not playing on the first line for the most part.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 8, 2009 11:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How the hell does Kozlov’s numbers look so bad when he always played with AO and Backstrom? If I had known that Kozlov was this bad I would have been harping on him way harder during the regular season. Ever statistical breakdown we’ve seen this summer has Kozlov near the bottom despite being carried by AO and Backstrom. I guess this proves AO doesn’t make his teammates better…
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 8, 2009 11:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Amen.
Simultaneously, every time I see one of these wizard-like statistical breakdowns, I realize how big a loss Feds really was.
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by winterion on Sep 8, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I see what you mean. At the same time, though – can we really afford $3.8M/yr for two years?
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Sep 8, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, we could if it wasn’t for someone.
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by winterion on Sep 8, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nah. Feds doesn’t have the explosive legs anymore. He can’t be a real threat as a 2C on a contending team anymore. If he wants to even dream of 3.8 in the NHL he needs to move to D and figure it out fast.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 8, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he’s happy in the KHL, I wish him the best, and I certainly hope his financial house is in order. I’m not saying the idea of paying anyone of Feds’ age more than a couple million is desirable (for cap purposes), but if I had to pick between having Sergei or Circles as the “what do I do with this guy” guy? It’s not even close.
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by winterion on Sep 8, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
gotta agree as that was my first thought – the more stat charts come out this summer, the more i think we will really miss feds. and to think that I thought his greatest asset was his locker room prescence – JP has shown his play was still up there too…
by bigity b on Sep 8, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BMo, if he’s back 100%, will be a nice fit for our system and could have us asking Sergei who? by mid-season. He’s apparently a good locker room guy as well (wore an A in VAN).
from the house that Red Jesus built
by bigonetimer on Sep 8, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not disagreeing that he’s a good locker room guy, but wearing an A isn’t necessarily a good indicator of that. See the A in Ottawa for an example, or Jagr with a C.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 8, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, you don’t get the A because you’re left handed ; ) though I recall Brash sporting a letter…Those two you point out are from pretty dysfunctional teams, and there are questionable examples elsewhere, but generally speaking the captains and alternates are considered leaders by example in the room and on the ice by both the players and coaching staff, which is what I equate to a good locker room presence.
from the house that Red Jesus built
by bigonetimer on Sep 8, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I also have to say I’m disappointed in Gordon’s numbers. I know he plays with low quality teammates but I expect a “defensive specialist” to come out within a goal of the other team.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 8, 2009 11:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I would think he’s at a disadvantage in starting a lot in his own end (going back to the old piece about who gets the offensive v. defensive draws). After all, if you have such a geographical disadvantage it’s easier to have the puck wind up in your own net occasionally, right?
I found similiar results for the Penguins grinders, so my guess is it has to do with maybe where they start as an influence. Also there’s the reality that guys on the 3rd and 4th line just aren’t as good of hockey players as Top 6 guys.
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by Hooks Orpik on Sep 8, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zone starting position definitely plays into this, as does quality of linemates. Bottom line being that when your realistic goal on any given shift is to come out even, you’re not going to be doing well in this metric.
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by J.P. on Sep 8, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Boudreau starting Boyd in his own zone a disproportionate amount of the time is a big part of it. I also think Boyd didn’t get much even strength time, so a fair amount of what you’re seeing is the effects of goals that were scored just after penalties ended.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 8, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point, gould. And if you’re on an even strength line with a guy like Donald Brashear or Eric Godard, they aren’t creating much offense and with limited chances to play.
As JP said, the bottom line for those guys is at least don’t give anything up, if the 4th line does see something go in their net, they might be on the bench for the rest of the period or game, which also hurts their stats in something like this.
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by Hooks Orpik on Sep 8, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Small sample and all, but Tyler Sloan has to impress here, especially in light of the low quality of the guys with whom he skated.
which makes me all the happier that no NHL team offered him a very attractive contract to woo him away from the organization.
by RedBirdie on Sep 8, 2009 11:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This did my heart good to see. I’ve had a thing for Tyler Sloan since that first mighty hit, and it didn’t diminish as I watched him over the course of the year. Biased? Maybe, but I still think he doesn’t get enough credit.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Sep 8, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree, there’s something steady about the way he plays, and it makes me happy to see his numbers reflect that.
YES!
by SeattleCapsFan on Sep 8, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And Flash is a top six forward? Not in this light, but 725K is just 725K….
from the house that Red Jesus built
by bigonetimer on Sep 8, 2009 12:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Alex Semin, shift for shift, is in unparalleled offensive machine. Arguably, THREE TIMES as efficient in creating offensive as the other Alex. Incredible.
by Stephen Pepper on Sep 8, 2009 12:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, not necessarily in creating offense but in creating net offense (i.e. goals for minus goals against) – it’s just firewagon hockey when AO’s on the ice.
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by J.P. on Sep 8, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right, I’m conflating at least three separate measures, but the difference in the two figures between the Alexes is jaw-dropping.
Moreover, Semin is 8th best in the entire league at +/- ON/60.
by Stephen Pepper on Sep 8, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When do the arguments that GMGM should keep Semin over Backis (if he can only keep one) start?
by Sct112 on Sep 8, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I vote for “never.”
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by J.P. on Sep 8, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Despite these numbers and all of the numbers we’ve talked about recently? What would it take for Semin over Backis switch to be made? Are Backstrom’s intangibles, age, position that much better/important than Semin’s?
by Sct112 on Sep 8, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think they are, frankly.
But here’s one tangible that makes it an easy choice for me: games played over the past two seasons.
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by J.P. on Sep 8, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not disagreeing with you. To me, the fact that Backstrom is 21 and is a center mean an awful lot and those don’t show up in the charts above, but I hope that its a west coast team that signs Semin away. I don’t want to be seeing him 6+ times a year.
by Sct112 on Sep 8, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
on sheer replaceability, there’s no doubt that Backstrom is the choice (if a choice must be made).
from the house that Red Jesus built
by bigonetimer on Sep 8, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What are you basing “replaceability” on? I don’t know who the Caps could get that would be a replacement for Semin or for Backstrom.
by Sct112 on Sep 8, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A caveat: I want the Caps to keep both guys, and we can. But, a 1C is much tougher to replace than a 1LW (which is what the Rabbit would be on nearly any other team). I’m not saying Semin is ordinary and it’s not his fault that he’s Malkin to AO’s Crosby on the depth chart here, but there are more options that would be acceptable in replacing him than there would be for Backstrom. For instance, if we lost Semin, I would be perfectly fine with, say, Patrick Sharp…not as prolific, but a badass all the same. If we lost Nick, well, I could count on one hand the number of available centers who I want up top with AO.
from the house that Red Jesus built
by bigonetimer on Sep 8, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Center I think is fundamentally more important than wing. You have (generally) the set-up man there, plus faceoffs, plus defensive responsibilities.
by red army line on Sep 8, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s all about the depth chart. Backstrom is the 1C, Semin is the 2 LW.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 8, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correct me if I am wrong but Qual of competition will be lower for the young guns that get matched up against other team’s versions of Gordon and Steckle, correct?
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Sep 8, 2009 12:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
that’s what I was presuming as well. I haven’t gotten the impression though that other teams are putting ’gordon and steckel" against Ovechkin.
by Hunky Dory on Sep 8, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not necessarily – QualComp is based on opposition +/-, so if the other teams’ checkers are plus players, their contribution to QualComp is higher than if they’re negative players. It doesn’t factor in role or ability or anything else, really.
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by J.P. on Sep 8, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
By the way, Dane Cook is unfunny. He’s made it pretty far by being attractive to women. The world is unfair, especially for ugly funny people.
by Hunky Dory on Sep 8, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey, at least you’ve got one out of two – there are plenty of ugly, unfunny people. But I guess it’s fair that they get what they get.
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by J.P. on Sep 8, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Finally a metric in which Dave Steckel isn’t AO-esque.
However, look who the top-rated regular D is: 55. I mean, I know our eyes tell us he’s no good, but there’s some point at which a cavalcade of statistical analysis has gots to convert the deniers, right?
No stat has better shown Clark’s 08-09 struggles, right?
by TylerG on Sep 8, 2009 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
More specifically: the rest of the D (minus Tom Poti Tyler Sloan) hovers in negative territory. I guess it’s Schultz’ fault for not dragging his mates to higher ground.
The captain has to skate like it’s 2006, if nothing else. 15 goals out of him this year would be nice.
from the house that Red Jesus built
by bigonetimer on Sep 8, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More specifically: the rest of the D (minusTom PotiTyler Sloan) hovers in negative territory.
In large part because they contribute next-to-nothing offensively. It’s under-discussed, but the Caps need more offense from the blueline (with the obvious exception) going forward.
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by J.P. on Sep 8, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point—I don’t expect goals from Erskine and SMo, but Juice could work on getting his cannon off a bit more. And Tom Poti….I like his presence, but he did not come as advertised on the O front.
from the house that Red Jesus built
by bigonetimer on Sep 8, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And more than just goals, better breakout passes would help here too.
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by J.P. on Sep 8, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not a huge endorser of Corsi as an individual stat, but the correlation to the numbers above is pretty compelling.
It could be part of the thrust to bring up Woods.
from the house that Red Jesus built
by bigonetimer on Sep 8, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Though to be fair, AO often takes a D-man spot for the entire powerplay, so other than Green, not a lot of Caps defensemen get an opportunity to add points in that fashion relative to other teams D-men.
by Stormblue on Sep 8, 2009 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True, others miss out on those stat-padding opportunities, but the five-on-five contributions are still paltry.
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by J.P. on Sep 8, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think what these stats pretty clearly lay out is how top-heavy the Caps’ offense is at even strength. Bottom-two-line guys (and some nominal 2nd liners) get killed here because a) they didn’t produce and b) when they’re off the ice, productive guys are on. A much more balanced team will have a smaller spread in +/-OFF, because everyone’s contributing.
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by J.P. on Sep 8, 2009 1:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
For forwards, you bet. But the Schultz number still sticks out, no?
by TylerG on Sep 8, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, it’s impressive. But he doesn’t hit anyone, so who cares?
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by J.P. on Sep 8, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And he doesn’t have a Lambo. He doesn’t value faith and family — on either arm. He’s not a prospect; he’s arrived. He is The Tortoise.
by TylerG on Sep 8, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And yet, he won’t be 24 for nearly six months.
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by J.P. on Sep 8, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah. He’s young enough to be foolish and to make douchey mistakes. Therefore, let’s each throw in $10 to buy him a pair of Blu-Blockers!
by TylerG on Sep 8, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
two comments on brash (and i liked him) 1) Lets hope he carries over that production to the Rangers when we play them and 2) Seeing him last on this list made me chuckle a bit, purely in light of the recent article where he said he single-handidly turned around the caps playoffs with that hit on betts.
by bigity b on Sep 8, 2009 1:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I would like to thank Rinkmeister JP for the quality stats, unparalleled analysis, and U2 earworm that’s been burrowing endlessly thru my brain all afternoon.
Ahem.
IS PAЯTY NOW
by Your Nation's Capital on Sep 8, 2009 5:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe tomorrow it’ll be about Jeff Schultz’s skating and called “Running to Stand Still.”
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by J.P. on Sep 8, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, but it’s the opposing forwards who find out that he’s All That You Can’t Leave Behind
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 8, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Something something something something Joshua Tree.
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by winterion on Sep 8, 2009 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You’re right, insofar as those look like very promising numbers for Morrison.
What did his line look like?
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by winterion on Sep 8, 2009 10:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
With Anaheim, he played frequently with Teemu or with Bobby Ryan. So he had good teammates there, but couldn’t get it done and was waived.
With Dallas, it looks like he bounced between the second and third lines. He got some good time with top left wing Loui Eriksson, but that was mostly with Swedish prospect Tom Wandell, who played only 14 games. Other than that he spent a lot of time with Modano, oddly enough. And it’s hard to draw many conclusions from his time in Dallas, since it was the end of a miserable season and they had a lot of injury problems.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 9, 2009 7:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here’s more or less the same info, broken out by ES TOI.
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by J.P. on Sep 9, 2009 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I’m not sure I can make heads or tails of the Dallas numbers.
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by winterion on Sep 9, 2009 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The bottom line is that during the time B-Mo played with Dallas, Dallas was a pretty bad team that was playing out a string and that was running experiments, like playing Wandell (a center) with Morrison. So it’s hard to answer the question “what did his linemates look like?” in Dallas, other than to say “it was a jumble”
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 9, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent, I see the Caps are re-uniting the 1994-1995 Michigan Wolverines hockey team
Now all ya gotta do is trade for John Madden and get Turco away from the Stars and you’ve got something…
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by ahtrap on Sep 9, 2009 12:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
67 | 45 | 13 | 9 | 99 |
|
Atlanta
|
66 | 28 | 28 | 10 | 66 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
66 | 27 | 27 | 12 | 66 |
|
Florida
|
66 | 27 | 29 | 10 | 64 |
|
Carolina
|
67 | 28 | 31 | 8 | 64 |
(updated 3.12.2010 at 1:23 AM EST)
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
