Alex Semin's Defense
by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 11:30 AM EDT
165 comments
"If you’re looking to protect a lead in the final minutes of a game, Alexander Semin and Nicklas Backstrom are better bets to provide stellar defense than [Alex Ovechkin] is." - Puck Prospectus
It's a throwaway line in a post discussing the "best player" bona fides of AO and Sidney Crosby, but the main point is probably not up for much debate - Semin and Backstrom are pretty clearly better defensive forwards than Ovechkin right now.
But a secondary point here is whether or not Alex Semin is capable of providing "stellar" defense. This shouldn't generate much disagreement either (though it did in a spirited back-and-forth on Twitter), so let's take a quick look at some numbers:
So why'd we pick the five players we did to join Semin on this chart? Because they were the top five finishers in Selke voting (hey, look - Semin got a pair of fourth-place votes and a fifth).
True, Semin played against generally lower competition than these other five players, and his propensity to take penalties is nothing if not troublesome. But as to the question of whether Alex Semin is capable of playing great, even stellar defense, there really isn't much of a question at all - he is... and he does.
Oh, and one last note - Mike Richards was robbed.
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God it’d be great to have that kid healthy and be able to keep him longer-term.
"You know you're an alcoholic when the bartender knows your name - and you've never been to that bar before."
by Bald Pollack on Sep 3, 2009 11:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What percentage of Semin’s 5 on 5 time was with Fedorov? The rest of the guys on that list are centers and I have a hard time giving a wing the defensive credit for the way a line performs.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 11:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Didn’t we already establish Federov lost a step? He had to use his smarts more and more because he couldn’t keep up with, say, Evgeni Malkin. The guys playing with Zetterberg, Datsyuk, and Richards as far as I know were good defensively too, so IMO it’s close to a wash.
by red army line on Sep 3, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fedorov has lost a step, but I think he let it hamper him in the offensive zone more than D. I think he probably was a little more conservative playing offense because he knew he couldn’t recover the same. Then there is the matter of the HHTs. But he still was good in his own end by the metrics provided by J.P. earlier in the summer; BB still trusted him enough to play D in the regular season and playoffs. Just considering their own-zone responsibilities I think the C is always going to have more of an impact on the line’s defensive stats than the Ws are.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mike Babcock even said it was a shame Fedorov was going to Russia because he could have played D in the NHL for a few more years. I would agree that the “lost step” was far more of a factor in the offensive end.
by RedBirdie on Sep 3, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Both Semin’s and Fedorov’s defensive performances are overstated by these metrics because they don’t include penalties taken. This is especially true for Feds because he doesn’t draw many penalties anymore, so he’s a net negative on penalties. Semin at least draws some, but I can’t call a guy a “stellar” defender if he takes lots of penalties.
by LSF76 on Sep 3, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But the defense he plays when not in the box is the best in the league, given some of the above stats. We’re arguing his capability to play defense, not whether he gives himself a chance to play it or not.
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 3, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I think my point is that when he’s focused (i.e. not taking so many damn HHT penalties), he’s a heck of a two-way forward.
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by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s not just an issue of “is he in the box and therefore unable to contribute?” Taking penalties is itself an act of poor defense because it puts your team shorthanded and increases the likelihood of goals against.
So what I’m saying is that when you ignore penalties Semin looks great, but ignoring penalties is an inadequate way of measuring defensive performance. Now, that said, Semin’s numbers are still very impressive and penalties are something you can improve with discipline, so the potential is there for him to become one of the best two-way forwards in the game. I just don’t think he’s there yet.
by LSF76 on Sep 3, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In ability, he’s already there. Also, the Selke isn’t the Lady Byng, everyone takes penalties, and a guy like Richards is a downright bastard on the ice. You can’t take away from his actual ice contributions, which are tops, just because Semin’s discipline (or lack thereof) is a little disappointing.
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 3, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
IMHO, a guy who takes a lot of penalties is not a good candidate for the Selke, regardless of how good his other metrics look. That applies to Richards just as much as it applies to Semin. I think the Selke should go to the forward who does the most to prevent goals against his team, which includes not putting his team short-handed. Unless your team allows fewer goals per minute on the PK than at even strength (not bloody likely), taking penalties increases your team’s goals against.
In other words, taking penalties is an “actual ice contribution.”
by LSF76 on Sep 3, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think this is a fair point. Logically, the point of “defense” is keeping the puck out of your own net, and any time you’re increasing the likelihood that it will end up there, you’ve made a negative defensive contribution.
But here, then, is a question – if you take a penalty (and thus greatly reduce the likelihood that you’ll be scored upon for a time), have you made a positive defensive contribution?
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by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep. Sorry. Brain fart.
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by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, i think it works both ways – it’s not as if the penalized player gets a goal scored against him, right? :-)
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 3, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This gets back to the offensive zone turnover thing (and in a tenuous way back to the Baseball v. Hockey conversation from yesterday; there aren’t clear “offense” and “defense” periods in hockey so you’re always looking to do both).
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Basketball’s a better analogy here. Would you consider a point guard’s turnover rate when evaluating him defensively?
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by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Honestly, I don’t consider anything about basketball. If I were going to I wouldn’t consider that defensive play, though it still hurts the team in the same basic manner.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s not the “shutting down the other team’s offense” kind of defense but it is the “reducing goals/points scored against” kind of defense. I think the latter is a kind of defensive contribution just like the former is.
by LSF76 on Sep 3, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right. But the latter definition is so broad that basically it erases the distinction between offense and defense.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right – that’s back to “the best defense is a good offense,” not “the best defense is the best defense.”
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by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How so?
Defense: reducing goals against.
Offense: increasing goals for.
I see no problem with saying that taking a penalty is both bad defense and bad offense, and drawing a penalty is both good offense and good defense. Although I will grant that it’s unintuitive and others will disagree, I like to view these things globally because I think that leads to the most sophisticated understanding of the game.
by LSF76 on Sep 3, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How so?
Defense: reducing goals against.
Offense: increasing goals for.
Effective offense can reduce goals against. If you constantly keep pressure on the opposition, constantly keep the puck in their end, don’t allow them to regroup and attack, etc, you make it hard for them to score.
by David M. Getz on Sep 3, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, exactly. What’s wrong with calling that good defense? Don’t we like checking lines who can forecheck and keep the puck in the offensive zone?
by LSF76 on Sep 3, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because if you use that definition you’re going to have your “best defenders” list looking identical to your “best offensive” players list, and it offers no helpful distinction as to which players play which roles better.
I guess you could alternatively just rate “best defensive” player by +/- but that stat is way too flawed to be a true indication of defensive skill.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not necessarily. Not everything that increases goals for also decreases goals against and vice versa. If you shoot the puck constantly every time you touch it anywhere near the offensive zone, you will put a few through and score some goals. But you are also hurting your defense by giving the other team possession. (Hmm, did I just describe Ovechkin? Food for thought.) By contrast, if you just cycle constantly and never shoot, you are keeping the puck out of your own goal but also the opposing goal. So the volume-shooter is good on O but not D, while the plodding cycler is good on D but not O.
GF+GA does not have to be a zero-sum game.
by LSF76 on Sep 3, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is still way too much overlap between the two behaviors. It would definitely detract from the clarity of the numbers, IMO.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Detracting from the clarity of the numbers would be a positive in my mind, because reality is muddled, not clear. The numbers give a misleading sense of precision. I’d rather be confidently muddled than have clear results I’m not confident in.
by LSF76 on Sep 3, 2009 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Muddled number don’t explain anything. That’s what controls are for. You’re basically taking it back to G-A-P and +/-.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Misleadingly precise numbers don’t explain anything either- they just pretend to.
by LSF76 on Sep 3, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So what exactly is your point? You seem like you are on the stat-head side of things but I’m not sure what you’re getting at here. How does your proposal help at all?
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am very pro-stats. But good stats need good analysis. You have to recognize and discuss the limitations of stats. In this case, certain aspects of the game have an impact on both offense and defense. You can’t ignore that just because it’s inconvenient. It’s more important to have accurate stats than to have clear ones. I’d rather have a good stat that tells me how good a player is, even if I can’t separate offense from defense, than have a less good stat which only measures defense but doesn’t measure it as well.
by LSF76 on Sep 3, 2009 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Clearly I’m just not interested in a sophisticated approach to understanding the game.
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by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m sorry I missed out on this conversation last night, but I throw in my two cents.
I have no problem considering the game in two distinct categories as long as there is an appreciation that it isn’t black and white. (I know that everyone here gets that).
I understand and agree that a pass at the offensive blue line is inherently a more offensive play than a defensive one, but to me it isn’t that different than a long breakout pass from your own zone. There is a risk associated with the play that defensively cognicent players understand and evaluate before making it. This is what separates a guy like Ovie from a guy like Semen. Ovie is always thinking about the offensive upside, he leaves the zone early, makes bad breakout passes and occasionally thinks about the risky situation they put the team in, someone that is a better defensive forward is more apt to evaluate the situation and not make the overly risky pass/play.
by Sct112 on Sep 4, 2009 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair points that I don’t think are much different from what I was saying – he takes too many penalties, but when he’s not taking penalties, he’s a solid two-way player. What I mean is that his instincts are great, his skillset is well-tailored for strong defensive play, and that he has shown – as the stats bear out – that he can put it all together.
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by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thats a great question/point. While playing defense is certainly part of a wings job description, its mostly about preventing the point man from having open shots and having time to control the puck and keep it in the zone (read make breakouts happen). The center’s responsibilities in the defensive zone are much greater than a winger’s.
by Sct112 on Sep 3, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Semin played more with each of AO and Backstrom than Feds at even strength, and had a lower GAON/20 with each of them than with Feds (best defense being a good offense, I suppose).
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by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What is the purpose of the distinction between GAON/20 and GAON/60?
by Sct112 on Sep 3, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There’s no purpose – GAON/20 happens to be used in the link I included in that last comment, while GAON/60 was used in the stats at BtN that are in the post itself. Obviously the ranks and rations are the same.
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by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I figured, just wasn’t sure if there was something I was missing. Tackar.
by Sct112 on Sep 3, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Couldn’t agree more re: Mike Richards.
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by winterion on Sep 3, 2009 12:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He’ll get his. There aren’t many guys on the Caps that I would choose over Richards, as much as that pains me to say.
by Sct112 on Sep 3, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only time Ovechkin should be out in a defensive situation is when the Caps are skating 5-on-6 during an empty net situation. What you should have on the ice in that situation is your top PK unit and your top shooter, the PK unit to play defense (along with the shooter) and the shooter, whose job it is to put the puck into the empty net and secure the victory.
That said, Semin might be out there for both reasons. I suspect he will (along with Steckel) be the top PK pairing in the coming season, along with Poti and Alzner on the back line. Toss in Backstrom (not OV necessarily, as it never hurts to have 2 centers out there in case one gets tossed from the circle) and the Caps should be able to finish off most empty net situations in a favorable way…
Oh, and both Richards and Koivu were robbed…
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Caps on Sep 3, 2009 12:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What you should have on the ice in that situation is your top PK unit and your top shooter, the PK unit to play defense (along with the shooter) and the shooter, whose job it is to put the puck into the empty net and secure the victory.
I have to disagree. Goal number one in that situation is defense and your forwards ought to be the best four defensive players you can put out there and still have everyone playing a position they’re comfortable with. There’s not much of an advantage to having your best shooter one the ice – how often are you going to have a shot at an empty net than an elite scorer will make but a grinder won’t?
I also disagree with regards to the Caps’ best shooter. That title’s gotta go to Semin.
by David M. Getz on Sep 3, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Goal number one in that situation is defense and your forwards ought to be the best four defensive players you can put out there
Agreed, but I was going to say best defensive players/shot blockers.
by Yoshietree on Sep 3, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Semin’s got the best wrist shot, perhaps, in the league. But I don’t think he’s their best overall shooter. I wouldn’t want him in every single shooting situation where i would want Ovechkin, for example. Bombs from the point are one of the most popular locations in a sitch like that, and I wouldn’t want anyone shooting those but Green and AO.
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 3, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We’re talking empty netters here, though.
Sidenote: if the Caps held an accuracy shooting competition a la the All-Star Skills Comp., don’t you think Semin would win?
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by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t. Guy puts pucks over the bar all the time. I don’t necessarily think AO would win either. My guess… Backstrom.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it’d come down to the 1st line – if they all had the time to place their shots, I think they could all go 4-for-4. And I’d have been afraid of Kozlov in an accuracy competition, myself.
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 3, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Green could make some noise as well. I really don’t think AO’s shot is that accurate so I don’t think this is his competition to win. In fact, I don’t think AO would win a single All Star skills competition. If they did some combination of hardest-accurate shot I think he would beat most people, but even that he may not win.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good call, and there’s a nice YouTube clip of him doing -post-post-bar to bolster your case.
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by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I was thinking about that video when I mentioned that. I also think that Nick is forced to put pucks into tighter spaces because he’s a passer. It requires more pinpoint accuracy than AO and Semin’s overpowering shots require.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Semin, though, has got pinpoint power. Like I said, best wrist shot in the league. Might even need to amend that to “world.”
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 3, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno. He misses the net a lot. He can shoot it hard with no windup and he hits those corners sometimes but he’s not the most accurate shooter in the league, IMO.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d like to see Ray Bourque go 4-for-4 while getting manhandled. It’s not like they’re trying to defend him in the accuracy competition.
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 3, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah that’s kinda my point. The guys that win the most accurate shooter aren’t always high goal scorers. I don’t hold it against Borque though, at least he was firing those pucks at the targets. The guy I refuse to acknowledge as the most accurate shooter is Kaberle. That was the weakest performance I’ve ever seen. Guy lobbed saucer passes at the targets from 20 feet. Good job, I’m sure 75% of the NHL couldn’t equal that feet. Last year what happened? Malkin and someone else (I forget who was tied with him initially) came out firing pucks at the targets. Kaberle realized he couldn’t go up there with that weak sauce again and he tried shooting the puck, and went nowhere.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, no, what I mean is that you’re harping on Semin putting the puck over the bar and wide, like AO does. But they’re also always being hounded by defense at the same time. Given the time and space, I’m betting that Semin, AO, and Backis could all win an accuracy contest.
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 3, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Got ya. I’m keeping my money on Backstrom to beat out the Russians.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
IT SOUNDS LIKE WE HAVE A WAGER, MY FEHR FRIEND!
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 3, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Didn’t you see the video of Backstrom nailing the posts? He has one helluva shot
by red army line on Sep 3, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beat Huet clean in March of ’08, too.
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by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, on the ice IIRC.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s b/c I’m a Penguin lover.
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by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did that feel dirty, just now?
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 3, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
JP runs Pensblog.
Comment first, think second, read third.
by zephyr on Sep 3, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You’ve put me down twice in what, 5 minutes. Must be a world record
by red army line on Sep 3, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Huh? I made a quip about Backstrom. Unless you’re Backstrom, I’m not sure how I put you down with that one.
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by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m a man of my word, and my words got hurt.
Not direct put down, but an off-topic zinger here.
by red army line on Sep 3, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You get the contestants together and I’m in.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think anyone from the top 2 lines could all win that any given day. If we’re talking about no pressure shooting most of those guys can hit a tin can from 35 feet away.
Anyone can have a bad round though. As evidence of Ovi being juice boy to BB.
Comment first, think second, read third.
by zephyr on Sep 3, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A discussion about the best Caps shot and bombs from the point and nobody mentions Juice?
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His agent must be at lunch.
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by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I come to the Rink for the stats and humor, but I stay for the continuity.
"You know you're an alcoholic when the bartender knows your name - and you've never been to that bar before."
by Bald Pollack on Sep 3, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or twittering during a hearing…
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Caps on Sep 3, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But AO has to be out there so you can pad his stats. ENGs, baby! AO didn’t lead the League in ’em last year by accident.
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by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And how many secondary assists did Backstrom rack up on those?
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Less than Staal, that’s for sure.
"You know you're an alcoholic when the bartender knows your name - and you've never been to that bar before."
by Bald Pollack on Sep 3, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Way to bring it full Nylander.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nylander is now an adjective? Nice!
Me, I’m still lobbying for a Nylander unit of currency, representing $5.5M So instead of AO making $9.0M this year, he’s making 1.64 Nylanders….
:)
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Caps on Sep 3, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, circle is a noun or verb, but “full circle” is an adjective (I guess). Or maybe it’s an idea, thus a noun. Can we all agree to hate grammar? Speaking properly is one thing, but memorizing the definition of every single grammatical device (i.e. appositive, subordinating clause) doesn’t seem like it should be a priority. Then again, I’m only a freshman.
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by crabchowdah on Sep 3, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no way a secondary should count as much as a primary!!
by mechanicsville on Sep 3, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
as my idiot, Bruins-fan brother says “I could score that many goals if I played all 60 minutes like Ovechkin does!”
Obviously, reality is a minor inconvenience for him….
by RedBirdie on Sep 3, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love that argument. “Well anyone could score sixty if they played like Ovechkin!”
…then why doesn’t every team have three lines of sixty goal scorers?
by David M. Getz on Sep 3, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because every other player in the league is a team player that passes the puck to make their teammates better. Obviously.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I enjoy the shots side of that argument too. Everyone seems to think having the puck enough to attempt 800 something shots a season is really easy.
Comment first, think second, read third.
by zephyr on Sep 3, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that’s my favorite. Anyone could have that high a total if they took that many shots? OK, may be true — so why isn’t everyone else taking that many shots? Slippery tape?
by CapitalCentre on Sep 3, 2009 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously, reality is a minor inconvenience for him….
FTW
by ns on Sep 3, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I forgot to note that my brother is a rather large guy and partially paralyzed in one had. Yet he said this in all seriousness. And I don’t remember the last time he was on skates.
by RedBirdie on Sep 3, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One statistical oddity from Koivu’s numbers – his individual GAON/60 at both 5-on-5 and 4-on-5 (of course) were higher than the team’s GAA. Obviously QualComp plays into this, but it’s still strange that the team gave up fewer goals/60 at 5-on-5 when he was off the ice (2.12) than when he was on (2.41). By contrast, the Wings gave up 2.30 when Datsyuk was on the ice and 2.36 when he was off.
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by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To some extent, Semin’s excellent defense is due to his stick handling. There’re not too many guys on any team who can just softly intercept a flying puck with a stick as he does quite often.
by fnralch on Sep 3, 2009 12:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes, he’s very slick with his twig. Of course, it’s that same instrument that gets him in trouble so often…
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by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think he stickhandles with his brain.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was going to say something off-color, but it was too easy – and likely moderated ;-).
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 3, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I will start to consider Semin a strong defensive forward when I stop seeing him make routine giveaways within 6 feet of the blue lines, particularly the offensive blue line.
by urhockey22 on Sep 3, 2009 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
In all fairness, i’d say giving the puck away has nothing to do with his defense, especially when it’s near our offensive blue line.
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 3, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You’ll consider him a strong defensive forward when an aspect of his offensive game gets better?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just to play devil’s advocate, you play D in all zones and taking care of the puck is part of playing D. But I think urhockey22’s comment goes more to Semin’s head than his D ability.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you mean playing D, except when playing O, which he was apparently doing at the time of the giveaway?
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 3, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure exactly what you mean here. What I’m pointing out is that if you talked to a guy like Mike Babcock I’d bet you he would say that not turning the puck over at the bluelines is a component to defensive hockey (same with getting the puck out of the zone, or deep in the offensive zone). It isn’t what we normally consider “defensive hockey” but it contributes to keeping the puck out of your net, which is sorta the definition of defense. I’m mostly just disputing the notion that “defense is what you play when you don’t have the puck, offense is what you play with the puck.” I think when the D is trying to corral the puck in the corner and execute a breakout they are playing defense, not offense.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But if he’s carrying the puck somewhere near our offensive blue line, he’s clearly not playing D at that particular moment in time. He’s playing pure O (unless he’s just trying to waste time at the very end of a game or something). That’s where I’m confused by the whole thing: it’s a situation that can only be an offensive giveaway.
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 3, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
giveaway
A giveaway is bad anywhere on the ice. It’s a part of defensive hockey, but only really an integral part of it in the neutral zone, when the teams are changing, and in the D zone.
by red army line on Sep 3, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it was F&B that said it earlier. You’re always playing defense. I would actually say that Semin’s biggest problem is that he doesn’t think defensively enough at the offensive blueline and ends up taking bad penalties and giving up odd man rushes because he is thinking purely offense.
Playing defense is about not making bad choices, and that isn’t limited strictly to the defensive zone.
by Sct112 on Sep 3, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is getting a bit far flung. It’s like saying a quarterback who throws a lot of interceptions is worse defensively than one who doesn’t. Clearly hockey isn’t as easily segregable into offense and defense as football is, but there’s gotta be some differentiation, analytically.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t see it. Its tough for me to think of football players as offensive and defensive, but hockey actually has the concept of defensive forwards. What I was trying to say was that being a great defensive forward isn’t just about playing tough in your own end, its about understanding risk and minimizing it.
by Sct112 on Sep 3, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
its about understanding risk and minimizing it.
That’s the line that wins the game right there.
And Alex Semin can do that sometimes, but his particular role on the team isn’t about minimizing risk – if anything, it’s about being as completely batshit insane risky as possible to terrorize the other team’s D. It’s the fact that he’s so damn good in his own zone, while displaying said batshit insanity that allows him to have those numbers.
And besides, it’s not as if anyone here actually thinks he’ll be voted into a Selke :-).
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 3, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It’s the fact that he’s so damn good in his own zone, while displaying said batshit insanity that allows him to have those numbers.
that, is a sweet description. i think Semin has more on ice creativity in him than Ovi or much of the league/world. Also, after a full season on the PK, Semin will be even better this year.
Damnit damnit damnit….i swore i would hold off on buying his jersey until he extends his contract or walks, but its going to be hard.
by ns on Sep 3, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, that made me snort soda all over my keyboard! I also liked:
And Alex Semin can do that sometimes, but his particular role on the team isn’t about minimizing risk – if anything, it’s about being as completely batshit insane risky as possible to terrorize the other team’s D.
Alex Semin, terrorist. Don’t make him play bongos on ya!
by RedBirdie on Sep 3, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
heh
Boudreau: What is best in life?
Nylander: The open steppe, fleet horse, falcons at your wrist, and the wind in your hair.
Boudreau: Wrong! Semin! What is best in life?
Semin: To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women.
Boudreau: That is good! That is good.
by ns on Sep 3, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
May this quote ring out into Immortality!!!
I can’t start the football or hockey seasons without reciting either this or the prayer to Krom (although I think I did the 2nd one right before Game 7 vs. Pens and it fell right on its face).
Batshit crazy is also awesome… long live Japers’ Rink!
"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it."
- Ferris Bueller
by war_capitals on Sep 4, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Japers’ Rink: Official Fanclub of Batshit Crazy Russians.
by RedBirdie on Sep 4, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he stays healthy and cuts down the HHTs and BB gives him more PK time and matches him against the other team’s top lines, he’s an easy finalist. We’ve seen stretches of all four of these. Now to have them all together for 82 games.
by red army line on Sep 3, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I buy that, to an extent, again in the “best defense is a good offense” way, but I really don’t consider getting too fancy stickhandling 2/3 of the rink away from your own goal to be a big component of one’s “defensive ability.”
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, neither do I. Like I said, it was a devil’s advocate thing.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The devil’s bad enough on his own – he doesn’t need counsel.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha. Good point.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I gotta say, I’m with urhockey22 on this one. Defensemen are playing defense when they have the puck between their legs on the boards while the other team is still in the zone. I’d argue they’re playing defense when they’re behind the net with the puck and the other team has a good forecheck going.
There are some situations where you have to be aware that a giveaway is much more likely to end up in the back of your own net. When you’re near the opponent’s blue line, that’s one of those situations. You need to dial it down and play more conservatively. I count this as part of defensive responsibility. And Semin is a little irresponsible in that kind of situation.
People rag on the defense played by offensive defensemen all the time. Sometimes it’s fair, sometimes it isn’t. But I think we can all agree that a defenseman who always thinks offense first can really get his team in a lot of trouble. I don’t see Semin’s sometime irresponsibility in getting the puck up ice any differently.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 4, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Snap poll: Rank, according to defensive ability, your top five Caps forwards. Go!
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 2:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Steckel, Gordon, Semin, Backstrom, Laich.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love Laich but I don’t think he belongs on the list.
Comment first, think second, read third.
by zephyr on Sep 3, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I don’t know who else I’d put there. I’m not putting BMo or Knuble because I haven’t seen them in BB’s system. I looked at PK time last year and asked myself who the top 5 guys I want PKing are.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah fair enough. BMo is pretty well regarded for his two way playing. I think if he’s on the second line with Semin it’s going to be a really great line.
Comment first, think second, read third.
by zephyr on Sep 3, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have high hopes, but I’m extremely cautious given recent history.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Steckel, Gordon, Backstrom, Semin, Fehr
by David M. Getz on Sep 3, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mistake: Backstrom & Semin should be switched.
Steckels, Gordon, Semin, Backstrom, Fehr.
by David M. Getz on Sep 3, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I like this list or F&B’s, depending on the situation. I like Laich more as a PKer (shot blocking, draws) and Fehr more as an even-strength forechecker (not sure if that qualifies as D).
Also, I think BMo could find his way onto the list if he’s 100%.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m split on Fehr and Laich for number five. Fehr’s numbers are great at even strength but I don’t know I trust him to kill.
by David M. Getz on Sep 3, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I passed over Fehr because he hasn’t shown PKing and he has a very small sample size. The first 4 are the ones I’m really sold on.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stecks, Semin, Backs, Gordo, Laich
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 3, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, he does play like a forward some days
by RedBirdie on Sep 3, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1. Steckel
2. Semin
3. Backstrom
4. Knuble
5. Morrison
6. Bonus: Laing
Comment first, think second, read third.
by zephyr on Sep 3, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True, I hadn’t even considered Knuckles.
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 3, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Gordon is OK but he just doesn’t make my list unless we’re talking about the PK. If we’re talking about the PK I scrap 4&5 and put in Gordo then Laich.
Comment first, think second, read third.
by zephyr on Sep 3, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Laing isn’t even in the NHL. Heart isn’t enough to be a top defensive player in the NHL.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, we said top 5 so I listed 5. He was just for fun. Good party poop though =]
Comment first, think second, read third.
by zephyr on Sep 3, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Show me a parade and I’ll start raining.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Steckel, Semin, Backstrom, Gordon, Laich.
by red army line on Sep 3, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
only if he’s taking out the opposing team’s mascot.
by RedBirdie on Sep 3, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gee I wonder what Yahoo Sports personality these stats are aimed at. :-)
by CP2Devil on Sep 3, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sorry for asking a dumb question, but how is GAON/60 calculated? I gather GAON is goals allowed while on the ice, no? I’ve been trying to crunch Semin’s numbers on my own to see if they match the table but alas, no dice. It’s quite frustrating.
by Laich It Or Lump It on Sep 3, 2009 3:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
GAON/60 is the number of goals against while the player is on the ice, per 60 minutes of ice time in a given situation.
For example, let’s look at Semin at 5-on-5. According to that linke, he played 13.18 minutes per game times 62 games = 817.16 5-on-5 minutes. He was on the ice for 31 5-on-5 goals against, so multiply that by 60 and divide by the 817.16 minutes and… voila! 2.28 GAON/60.
Does that make sense?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, that makes perfect sense. The problem was my data, not my math. I was using his total minutes per game while trying to calculate his 5-on-5 GAON/60. Guess it would help if I used the correct context, eh?
by Laich It Or Lump It on Sep 3, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is there a good hockey stat glossary that includes these more complicated metrics? I’m not very stat-savvy it would seem.
by Laich It Or Lump It on Sep 3, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OT, but here’s a question for the Rink Rats.
With Luongo’s long term signing it pretty much means that Corey Schneider has no future in VAN. I’d expect them to move him in the near future. Does that undercut Varlavirth’s trade value? And does it change the timeline that you would like to see GMGM make the decision regarding the future No. 1 of the team?
I think it may decrease Varlavirth’s trade value short term but Schneider isn’t any more proven (I’d say a little less so) than Varlavirth so I don’t think it kills it. I’ve said all along that I want GMGM to at least keep both goalies through 2010-11 before making a decision, and I still stand by that.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 5:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Am I missing a joke on “Varlavirth” as his name?
I don’t really think it hurts the trade value at all and I see no need to move either goalie anytime soon. I’d be happy with them sharing starting duties in a 1a 1b role once Theo is gone — rolling with whoever is hot.
Comment first, think second, read third.
by zephyr on Sep 3, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No joke, just shorthand. It’s easier to say Varlavirth than Varlamov/Neuvirth and I’m not going to narrow my trade options to just Neuvirth because I don’t think it’s at all clear that he’s the odd man out at this point.
I agree with your assessment, that’s why I wanted to keep them through 2010-11. Give them until the trade deadline to establish a true No. 1 and then pick up a veteran backup for the home stretch/playoffs and either trade the other guy or send him to Hershey to keep playing.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, I must be thick today. I totally didn’t get the Brangelina type anagram in affect.
I think I am partial to Neulamov.
Comment first, think second, read third.
by zephyr on Sep 3, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh and my bad, I totally meant to pose this question in the Caps Clips link. Sorry J.P.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No worries.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure, but I do think that signing Luongo long-term undercuts Schneider’s trade value a bit. It clearly says, “We have no Plan B, so we gave in to Roberto’s demands.”
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see your point but I think he’s one of a few goalies in the league where it doesn’t matter how good the backup is he is going to be “the man.”
Comment first, think second, read third.
by zephyr on Sep 3, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meaning it doesn’t have a poor reflection on the backup.
Comment first, think second, read third.
by zephyr on Sep 3, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I agree with this. I don’t think the Luongo signing is an implication that Schneider was not going to pan out. Right now VAN doesn’t have to move Schneider so I think they are still in the position of power because most teams still need a young potential No. 1 goalie.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Schneider was on a better trajectory, I doubt the Luongo deal goes down like it did.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting. I’m not exactly sure how it all went down so I’ll defer to your judgment. I’m picking up that you think Luongo basically had VAN over a barrel.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just an impression, and I certainly don’t have any inside knowledge. But when I read stuff like this from LeBrun, I wonder:
“So credit Canucks GM Mike Gillis for putting aside his personal preference of avoiding the kind of double digit-term deals that have plagued the NHL in the last few years; he made a rare exception because he knew he had no choice.”
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Sep 3, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's not quite gone yet...
he still wants to try for the canucks roster. if he can prove that he is more suitable than andrew raycroft, he could become luongo’s backup.
and, as everyone probably knows from what happened to the canucks last year, the backup goaltender can be very important.
GO CANUCKS GO!
by missy on Sep 7, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 30 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
|
Atlanta
|
18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 22 |
|
Florida
|
19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 18 |
|
Carolina
|
21 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 13 |
(updated 11.20.2009 at 9:16 AM EST)
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
