Wednesday Caps Clips: A Little Fantasy, A Little Science
by J.P. on Sep 2, 2009 6:41 AM EDT
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Your savory breakfast links:
- Here's a Mike Green piece that might have slipped through the cracks if not for GreenLife52.com. Sweet. [CTV]
- Do Alex Ovechkin's back tats mean "one family" and "life"? [Hanzi Smatter (h/t Edanger)]
- John Carlson is a better-skating Larry Murphy. From Dale Hunter's lips to the hockey gods' ears. [Capitals.com]
- I'll preface this by saying that, in general, I'm an enormous fan of Puck Prospectus. But sometimes even I don't buy what they're selling. This is one of those times (though I do strongly agree that "Alexander Semin and Nicklas Backstrom are better bets to provide stellar defense" than Ovechkin, as you might have heard). [Puck Prospectus]
- Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Hockey has four Caps ranked in its top 22 players overall. Any guesses? [Puck Daddy]
- A look at Semyon Varlamov's new gear. [Goalie Store via Caps Message Board]
- Rocking the red continues to rock, but don't take my word for it - trust science. [The Sporting Blog]
- Not surprisingly, the Caps' team Fenwick Number (similar to Corsi) was strong in 2008-09. [The Puck Stops Here]
- A trio of Green pictures from Canada's Olympic Camp. [Facebook]
- Cool vid on how the Giant Center painted its ice for the upcoming season. [Hershey Bears on YouTube (h/t @BanginPanger)]
- In case you're curious as to what Frederic Cassivi is up to, this one's for you. [Stack the Pads]
- Yet another Caps license plate. [Simply Sensational]
- Happy 60th birthday to Michel Belhumer (who was 0-29-4 with a 5.32 GAA in his Caps career), happy 44th to Kevin Miller, happy 33rd to Ivan Majesky, and happy 52nd to Bobby Gould, who played 600 games in a Caps uniform, but will probably be best remembered for this.
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John Carlson is a better-skating Larry Murphy.
So it’ll take longer for the turkey calls to start?
http://wewintrophies.com/ - 12 major trophies in national and international competitions. Be a part of the next one.
I guess he’ll get whooped out of town and go on to win multiple cups. Good for him.
by Laich It Or Lump It on Sep 2, 2009 7:52 AM EDT up reply actions
To be fair, L. Murphy wasn’t born a Cap. We may have better luck with this one.
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 2, 2009 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Nah – he’ll have Schultz here taking the whooping bullets for him.
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If Carlson’s upside is a better skating Larry Murphy and it costs Schultz to get him there — Its something I would certainly consider.
Huh? Is there any indication that there’s a choice that has to be made between Schultz and Carlson?
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While the Capital forward is one of the best players in the game, this list shows that he is not nearly as unique of a player as Sidney Crosby is, who only has six comparable players so far in his career.
OK…we can’t comment on the VUKOTA methodology used at Puck Prospectus, because we haven’t seen it. But eyeballing the “comparables” is, to say the least, a headscratcher.
In what possible universe could Pavel Bure, Luc Robitaille, Dale Hawerchuk, Pat Lafontaine, or Michel Goulet be “comparable” to Alex Ovechkin? Only if you have a very narrow universe of numbers that reflect offensive production (and even then, there are “assist-weighted” performers here that don’t, at first blush, seem “comparable” to Ovechkin).
There seems to be too much reliance on a relationship to points (lots) to PIMS (not so many), but seriously, in defining uniqueness, or in the case of Ovechkin, his lack of it, do you seriously want to try to convince me that Michel Goulet — a fine player, to be sure — and Alex Ovechkin are “comparables” of the same mold of player?
Yeah…try harder.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Right. How can any list of comparables for Alex through four seasons not include Mike Bossy?
Bossy – 307 GP, 241 goals, 187 assists
Ovechkin – 324 GP, 219 goals, 201 assists
Account for the difference in scoring b/t the eras and AO even blows Bossy away (231 adjusted goals to 200).
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If this is the same VUKOTA nonsense ESPN used earlier this summer to provide previews of players in the 2009-2010 season, then it’s a huge joke.
Like, to the point that’s it’s literally not even worth mentioning.
It’s the same – Puck Prospectus provided “it” to ESPN.
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I just don’t get it. How can any list that using the number of comparables as an argument include:
Barry Pederson 1984-85 22 4 8 12 10
He played 22 games in that comparable year? Pederson had 238 goals in his 12 year career, Ovie has almost that many in 4 years… Is there something that I’m missing?
do you seriously want to try to convince me that Michel Goulet — a fine player, to be sure — and Alex Ovechkin are "comparables" of the same mold of player?
I’m not sure they’re trying to say they’re of the same mold in terms of talent or playing style, only production.
OK…we can’t comment on the VUKOTA methodology used at Puck Prospectus, because we haven’t seen it. But eyeballing the "comparables" is, to say the least, a headscratcher.
To me this fact makes the whole conversation practically moot. I can understand why Baseball Prospectus doesn’t publish their PECOTA formula given that it’s a big part of their ability to generate sales, but PECOTA has been demonstrated to be accurate. VUKOTA hasn’t and it’s going to take more than ‘I say so’ to convince me.
It seems pretty clear that it doesn’t weight goals too heavily vis-a-vis assists, otherwise Pederson’s first three year’s don’t look much like AO’s at all.
Here’s my list of comparables. I might even accept this list.
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I’m not sure they’re trying to say they’re of the same mold in terms of talent or playing style, only production.
This isn’t an issue of style, it is one of what variables to select. Granted, hits is a subjective statistic and one that doesn’t have a long archive, but it is an elemental component of Ovechkin’s game and one that makes him, arguably, unique among all of those to whom PP compared him. If you select out variables that are otherwise important to that players game, it makes the results, to be charitable, questionable.
If you've read this far...seek help.
It depends what the criteria you’re looking at are. If you’re just trying to compare guys in terms of overall ability or different, very specific skills sets, that’s one thing, but that’s not what VUKOTA tries to do:
Following in the tradition of PECOTA and KUBIAK, VUKOTA is PuckProspectus’ player projection system. Using a combination of fundamental and advanced statistics, VUKOTA compares current NHL players to comparable players throughout history to best project their next season’s performance in goals, assists and points as well as GVT.
We’re all caught up in the little bit written on Ovechkin’s ‘uniqueness’ when defining how unique a player is in terms of anything other than raw numbers is something VUKOTA doesn’t try to do.
Ok but VUKOTA isn’t explained outright and I think it is fundamentally flawed not to consider the change in the way the game is played, styles of play, etc. If VUKOTA isn’t trying to measure the “uniqueness” of a player then they shouldn’t have pointed to that conclusion. I stand by my assertion that any statistical analysis that concludes that Trottier and Lafontaine are “comparable” to AO is fatally flawed. Looking just at G-A-P is completely inaccurate and I’d think the editors of PP would have realized that.
A man must have a code.
If VUKOTA isn’t trying to measure the "uniqueness" of a player then they shouldn’t have pointed to that conclusion.
I think it was poorly presented and made the assumption that people would realize they meant only in terms of statistics as defined by their measures and not by any other criteria.
The thing that stood out to me the most was the lack of adjustment for era that you mention – guys simply don’t score as many goals as consistently as Ovechkin does anymore.
Right. See above (Bossy 241 goals through four seasons, AO 219, but account for the difference in scoring b/t the eras and AO blows Bossy away, 231 adjusted goals to 200).
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If that’s all it is, a projection tool, then don’t conclude that one player is “unique” compared to another player (it isn’t the methodological value of the tool). Hell, I can perform a projection using really simple mathematical methods that don’t have acronyms. What is the value of this, other than as a fantasy hockey aid? This whole sabremetric (and its emerging offspring) idea impresses me more and more as methodological crap — a whole lot of noise that doesn’t inform any analysis of who wins and who loses in real games.
If you've read this far...seek help.
What is the value of this, other than as a fantasy hockey aid? This whole sabremetric (and its emerging offspring) idea impresses me more and more as methodological crap — a whole lot of noise that doesn’t inform any analysis of who wins and who loses in real games.
Well the goal is to ultimately build a model that successfully predicts how players will perform based on how their performance compares to other players and give people a better idea who’s going to score goals, prevent goals from being scored (other metrics, of course), etc, all stuff that comes back to winning games.
In baseball I can assure you the use of these techniques is not “methodological crap” because the nature of baseball is such that the data produced is useful. Because the game starts and stops at very specific intervals and because the exact situation can be recorded in each case (count, batter, pitchers, fields, runners on base, etc) you can throw all that together and draw some meaningful conclusions about what situations result in runs scored and runs against and thus associate certain game events with a run scored/prevented value and a thus their contribution to team wins.
When it comes to hockey, I can see where you’re coming from. The nature of hockey is such that independent events really can’t be isolated (at least not with the data we have available now) and it makes these kinds of projections somewhat silly; basically useful as a trivia fact, but not for the sort of analysis that can be done in baseball.
“Baseball is a game of a limited number of states (for instance – top of 7th, man on first, one out, 2-1 pitch count). As each event occurs on the field we can record the beginning and ending states. This means we have a rich database to use to measure the contributions of individual players and the impact of strategy.
“Not so in hockey. It is a very chaotic game. Improved record keeping could help (for instance, tell us in the game logs when a breakaway occurs), but the game is fundamentally more difficult to reduce to a database.
“Baseball is not really a team game. The component parts sum nicely to the whole. Most players have very clear roles. Hockey is a team game. The synergies of individuals are quite challenging to sort out. Roles are quite fluid and frequently shared.
“Finally, baseball is not an "energy" game. Putting more huff and puff into a baseball game does not get you more. It is a game of skill. That makes individual performance easy to assess. Hockey is also a game of skill, but adding energy typically gives a better result. Energy impacts are very hard to assess.” – Allan Ryder
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"Baseball is not really a team game. The component parts sum nicely to the whole. Most players have very clear roles. Hockey is a team game. The synergies of individuals are quite challenging to sort out. Roles are quite fluid and frequently shared.
That kind of absolutist (and, quite frankly, arrogant) sort of proclamation gives methodologists a bad name. There is plenty of huff and puff in baseball that gets you more. True, it doesn’t have interdependent nature of hockey, but this impresses me as 90 percent bats.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Yeah, I don’t understand what he’s getting at there. But he’s 100% right that baseball is much more an amalgamation of individual efforts than a team game in the sense hockey, soccer, and basketball are.
I think he means that baseball is a series of one-on-one’s – pitcher vs. batter – interrupted occasionally by team events (i.e. a ball put in play).
Even then, the roles are very clearly defined – batter bats, fielder fields – whereas in hockey, an entire team goes from offense to defense in an instant, players – five at a time often – get on and off the ice with precision, etc. I mean, sure, baseball has hit and runs, pick-off plays, etc., but hockey requires much more team coordination overall.
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Still, when I read ‘huff and puff’ I think ‘effort’ and when I think of the difference effort can make I think of Felipe Lopez on the Nationals versus Felipe Lopez….anywhere else, really.
Yeah, I wasn’t responding to the “huff and puff” paragraph, but the one before it (that Peerless pull-quoted). Maybe a reading fail on my part.
But yeah, saying that there’s no reward in baseball for hustling is just wrong. We all know that extra hustle will get you a reputation as a hard-worker (maybe even a nickname to note your hustle), which can eventually land you a managerial spot and the opportunity to wager on baseball games.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Then why try to use tools essentially built to analyze individual performance in baseball, if we accept that it is an aggregation of individual efforts, to a sport that — as Ryder put it. “is a very chaotic game…fundamentally more difficult to reduce to a database?” If I’m going to drive individual nails with a hammer, I’m not going to use that hammer to paint a landscape.
But that aside, I’m still waiting for hockey — and baseball for that matter — to make the leap from predicting individual performance to using that predictive quality to identify what influences winning and losing. Baseball seems to put a lot of stock in on-base-plus-slugging percentage. Of the top ten players in that stat (minimum: 400 AB), three are on teams that today would make the playoffs. What’s the connection?
To be fair, this sort of analysis — even in baseball — is relatively new, with all the growing pains that suggests, but until that broader connection can be made, all these methods strike me as having limited utility. I read the articles on the “Fenwick Number,” and I asked myself what the point was in the context of it being better (as opposed to “different”) from plus-minus or the Corsi measure. Eight of the top-20 players by that measure are Red Wings. What insight does that provide compared to, say, plus-minus (where there are three Red Wings in the top-20) or Corsi (where there are eight Red Wings in the top-20)? And then compare that to the Penguins, with no player in the top-20 in any of the Corsi, Fenwick, or plus-minus measures. These data don’t explain outcomes, and that leads back to my “fantasy hockey” comment.
I would argue, however, against abandoning the development of those tools in favor of “old school” approaches like “well, I just know what I see.”
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Sep 2, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Baseball seems to put a lot of stock in on-base-plus-slugging percentage. Of the top ten players in that stat (minimum: 400 AB), three are on teams that today would make the playoffs. What’s the connection?
That’s really not apples to apples since an individual player is only a fraction of his team’s offensive output and his OPS has no impact on defense or pitching. But the teams in the top ten in OPS are also the top ten in runs scored.
But that aside, I’m still waiting for hockey — and baseball for that matter — to make the leap from predicting individual performance to using that predictive quality to identify what influences winning and losing.
As a general rule, that’s exactly what baseball does. It finds what statistics are associated with successful performance (that on-base percentage and slugging were the only two statistics associated with high scoring teams is an example) and then develops ways of measuring them and you get statistics like Win Shares, Runs created, Win Probability added stats, and probability matrices that show expected runs with a man on second and no outs versus a man on second with one out and thus how many expected runs that out cost the team.
Hockey, I think, has either lost sight of that goal or hasn’t figured out how to do it.
I’m betting the latter, precisely because of the interdependencies among all the possible variables. Trying to measure performance in hockey based on individual statistical measures — essentially the behavior of discrete entities performing in relation to one another in a defined space — is like trying to model traffic. It ain’t easy.
If you've read this far...seek help.
I just don’t like both players have to win the cup and olympics and then the debate is over. There’s no way the debate will ever be over and what each player does this season and in these olympics is not the definitive statements in their still young careers.
by MetalCap on Sep 2, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed. The notion that the debate as to who the better individual player is is going to end based upon what their respecitve teams accomplish is silly.
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Personally, I don’t think you can really even prove you are a great player unless you’ve won a Memorial Cup, World Junior Championship Gold, Calder Cup, World Championship Gold, Olympic Gold, and Stanley Cup. Proving that you “know how to win” is an individual skill and a function of winning championships.
I also think it’s ridiculous that anyone thinks this debate is going to end. I’ll bet that (barring injury) this debate is going to last past their retirement.
A man must have a code.
I’d wager that you can walk into any bar in Boston and announce to the patrons that “Magic Johnson was twice the player Larry Bird ever was” and find yourself a willing adversary or two. Hell, you could probably walk into any bar in the Bronx and declare that Willie Mays and Duke Snider made Mickey Mantle look like Mickey Mouse and find a sparring partner.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
He doesn’t have a Calder Cup, and never will (loser). The only guy that I can think of that has a shot is (ugh) Mike Richards.
A man must have a code.
Hell of a stand-up comic, too.
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I’m completely with you Peerless (see the right side of the screen). The only thing I disagree about a little is that I don’t mind Bure and Robitaille being comparable because at least they play the same position and they were pure goal scorers. Both of those guys could make you pay if you gave them the tiniest opening. Bure is different because he’s nowhere near as physical; Luc couldn’t skate nearly as well or do as much on his own. But for purposes of comparables I’m more OK with those two than the playmaking centers that could score some goals like Trottier and Lafontaine.
A man must have a code.
who'da thunk?
After exhaustive effort, l’ve translated ovechkin’s tatoo’s, from left to right: Spicy Tuna Roll, and More Edamame Please
by Hunky Dory on Sep 2, 2009 9:06 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
http://wewintrophies.com/ - 12 major trophies in national and international competitions. Be a part of the next one.
by Bald Pollack on Sep 2, 2009 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
To put it in perspective: there are many, many comments on the Puck Daddy post about Ovechkin’s tattoo that are variations on the same theme.
Fair, but I don’t read Puck Daddy comments beyond about the first five. I just thought it funny because everyone is making such a big deal out of it. Personally, I think tatoos are stupid, no matter what they say.
Shape up, soldier! In less than a week, guys will be fighting for jobs… on-ice and on-blog!
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Eric Fehr? Is that you?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Sep 2, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
DMG’s wit is coming into camp in the best shape it’s ever been
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 3, 2009 3:40 AM EDT up reply actions
You set ’em up, I knock ’em down.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Ivan Majesky...
Ugh… just when I thought I’d never hear that name (or any of the other Grand Rapids Nepots Griffins again)….
Cassidy should have been fired for adding six of his players to the Caps roster from Grand Rapids. He should have realized they were minor leaguers for a reason!!
Let's go Caps!
Cassidy’s 2001-02 Griffins had the following future Caps: Kip Miller, Kiwi, Doig, John Gruden, Ciernik and Alexandre Giroux (and former Caps James Black and Todd Nelson).
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Neither did Jagr. Zing!
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Sep 2, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Gould
I like the Bobby Gould card but any mention of Gould should always include this clip. It’s why he’s one of my all-time favorites.
One punch
and that was all she wrote.
Thanks, b.orr. That made my day – and then some.
Mario was a divinely talented hockey player, but a complete bitch of a “fighter”, if you want to call it that.
Hey, I did include a link to that (see last word of entire post), though your clip is much more complete.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Happy birthday to the real Gould! Hell of a player.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 3, 2009 3:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I know he’s on the West Coast and all, but at almost 50 posts and no sign of G.O.D. today, of all days? For shame.
http://wewintrophies.com/ - 12 major trophies in national and international competitions. Be a part of the next one.
Hmmm. He voted for Keith Richards on the MVC poll this morning so he’s seen the Gould card I’m sure.
A man must have a code.
Long day at work. Glad to know I’m missed when absent. (and no, it’s not 4 in the morning — its 1 here in California)
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 3, 2009 3:42 AM EDT up reply actions
pretty amazing stat line. 33 games and not a single win. Wow. Where does that rank in a list of all time goalie futility?
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Sep 2, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Since you asked, the NHL mark for most goalie games played without a win is 21 (Mike O’Neill). [Belhumer won some games before coming to D.C.]
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Not sure this is really worth a fanshot, but needs to be shared, from Tarik:
Last week, Mike Green launched a new website, www.greenlife52.com. This week, I’m hearing MTV is scheduled to tape a segment for ‘Cribs’ at his condo.
my oh my. Guess that confirms that The Ghetto Fabulous Website of Mike Green is the real thing.
Yeah, we had prior confirmation of that. Never a doubt, really – too (relatively) well done to be a fake, especially since there had to be some licensing of all those Getty images.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
it would have ranked up there with the “Brian Burke” twitter account if it was a fake.
I keep hearing “Damn it feels good to be a gangsta” every time I see the site.
How about 3 caps in the top 11 on NHL.com’s fantasy forwards list?
by red army line on Sep 2, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Tarik’s on a roll today. You know its September when we get a post on Bruce’s thought on line combos!
A roll? C’mon. The most interesting thing in that whole post is the Nylander stuff and he doesn’t even get a quote or a “no comment” on it. The rest of it is no different than all of us speculating on lines, except it’s from Bruce’s mouth.
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I dunno, I was pretty interested to find out Flash is a North American.
A man must have a code.
by Rob Parker on Sep 2, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Ha. Meant to mention that as well. Maybe Bruce has formally adopted Flash and the latter’s nationality has changed accordingly.
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“Obviously, I would like not to move lines around as much as we did last year,” he said. “But that was out of necessity.”
I’m most curious about the “necessity” part. I know that there were a few injuries but on the whole the front lines were pretty healthy. What was the necessity part of it? Lines sucking?
by Sct112 on Sep 2, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That would’ve been a good follow-up question to have been asked.
I think the answer would have been that you had one 2nd/3rd-line center who was injured often and one 2nd/3rd-line center who couldn’t figure out how to be productive in the system, so there was a lot of juggling on those two lines. Plus, there was “To Care Bear or not to Care Bear.”
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
We’ve got so many I’ve lost track. Personally, I like “Japers’ Rink: Comment first, think second, read third.”
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Sep 2, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
a team-by-team look at jerseys that a fan wouldn't be caught dead wearing in an opposing arena.
Love Leahy’s piece on Puckdaddy, where out of 30 teams’ most hated players, 2 have Ovie and 2 have Huntsie. Excellent.
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