Going Forward With Finley Up Front
by David M. Getz on Sep 10, 2009 11:09 AM EDT
183 comments
The Capitals July development camp provided the usual storylines: undrafted rookies trying to make their mark on the team, returning players taking the ice with another year of experience under their belts, and top prospects looking NHL ready or having disappointingly stagnated. But there was one noticeably atypical note from camp: the team's decision to play Joe Finley at forward.
Ostensibly the move was made to keep roster balance when Anton Gustafsson went down with an injury. But the fact that Finley is listed as a forward on the team's rookie camp roster, has worked out as a forward this week (when he's been on the ice), and was told by Bruce Boudreau to try and get some work in as a forward over the summer indicates that the organization now feels it is in their (and Finley's) best interest for the former first round draft pick to play as a wing. The bad news for Capitals fans is that the decision says more about how the team feels about Finley's potential as a defenseman than his potential as a wing.
Simply put there's nothing in Finley's skill set or amateur production that suggest he can be effective as a scorer. In 154 games at the University of North Dakota he tallied 35 only points and seven goals. Scouting reports don't indicate Finley's shot as particularly quick or accurate, his passing is regarded as merely adequate, and any praise of his skating ability is followed with a caveat along the lines of 'for a player his size' or 'for a big man'. Could there be something there that the Capitals scouts and coaching staff see but has escaped everyone else? It's possible, but unlikely.
In reality the role the Capitals are envisioning for Finley at this point can probably be deduced not only from his size and on-ice temperament but from the history of other NHL defensemen-turned-wingers, guys like Paul Bissonnette, Patrick Kaleta, Wade Brookbank, Wade Belak, and Eric Godard, players who have combined for 1,006 NHL games and 26 goals -- and 2,295 penalty minutes. Finley seems more like to follow in the paths of these players than in that of, say, Dustin Byfuglien, the NHL's premier former-defenseman-winger. Though Finley, at 6'7'', 245 pounds, has a frame comparable to Byfuglien's 6'3'', 247 pounds, Byfuglien was a productive offensive blueliner before converting to the wing, scoring 38 goals over his last two seasons in juniors and 16 in the AHL the year before he cemented an NHL roster spot. In short, Finley looks lot more likely to become an enforcer than a productive power forward at the NHL level.
Put aside the argument as to whether or not enforcers are even necessary for the sake of simplicity and Finley's career prospects still look dubious. Yes, he's big. Yes, he's strong. Yes, he's ornery. But he has also been playing an amateur league that asseses a game misconduct for a fighting major for the past four seasons. As a result Finley's fought exactly once since 2005, an AHL fight against the aforementioned Bissonnette that, um, didn't end all that well:
Of course, this doesn't mean Finley can't or won't be an effective professional fighter - he did have 11 USHL fights back in 2004-05. But it does mean he still has yet to prove he can be.
In the end what we're left with is a former defenseman who's being asked to become a forward though he hasn't shown much in the way of offense ability, and asked to become an enforcer though he hasn't shown much in the way acumen in the fisticuffs department. It appears the Capitals plan for Joe Finley is built entirely on hope: they're hoping he can develop into an effective deterrent, hoping he can find some measure of productivity as a forward, and hoping he can figure out how to do it at the NHL level. At this point Finley has become a salvage project for an organization that looks to have lost all faith he can be a productive professional defenseman.
The 2005 draft just keeps on giving, doesn't it?
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the caps are aslo banking that his physical presence as a forward will go a long way (besides just wearing down opponents).
Also, you forgot to mention Finley’s most recent and successfull fight. I guess since it didnt happen on the ice it doesnt count. hahahaha.
Either way, he seems to be a big guy with a mean streak that is missing on the roster and in the minors.
“Scouting reports don’t indicate Finley’s shot as particularly quick or accurate, his passing is regarded as merely adequate…” This may explain the switch. As a wing, his passes won’t be outlet passes and his shots won’t be of the long-distance variety. In close, I’d bet his shot is perfect.
The Bruins have used Chara as a wing on the PP simply to put his body in front of the net. Maybe this is Finley’s role: hit in the corners, create turn-overs, camp at the top of the crease and put in short-range garbage.
Didn’t think of Finley as we were hashing over the need for an enforcer.
I guess GMGM/Caps’ brass are expanding their preferences beyond Care Bear/ smallish, speedy forwards in the mold of Bourque, Perrault, Bouchard, etc..
Quoting recent article(s) on Jasinsky:
“Capitals Director of Player Development Steve Richmond. ‘We’re lacking in young toughness in our organization because those types of guys are hard to find. It’s a difficult job, but what we want to find out about Ryan is his level of skill and hockey sense. We decided to bring him in and get a close look at what he can do.’ "
Flash would be my quintessential example of this, especially given the organizational love for the guy.
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Bourque is much more than a little care bear/smallish forward. While he obviously isn’t going to get into many fights he hits everything that moves and plays the body very well.
AO is a care bear. He’s a beast.
Backstrom is a care bear. He’s tough, great on the boards, and defends the puck well.
Semin is a care bear. He’s probably the best two-way forwards on the team.
Even if you don’t like them as a line it’s hard to say that the Caps shouldn’t pursue more of those players. As for smallish forwards, until quite recently GMGM has shown a much stronger propensity to draft big, tall players than he has to draft the smallish speedy forwards.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 10, 2009 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, when you draft Swedes, that comes hand in hand. About as tall as humans come, on the average.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_height#Average_height_around_the_world
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But the Swedes he drafted are among the shorter players he’s drafted.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 11, 2009 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions
This does nothing to detract from the trivia that winterion just dropped, though.
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Shame there isn’t a Trivial Pursuit NHL Edition. Would swing by Game Parlor and pick it up. Oh, well.
Winterion Game Studios
Visit us online at : http://winterion.com
But doesn’t Joe Finley’s alleged-but-not-really potential make you want to watch some violence on TV and light up a cigarette afterward? Methinks he’s more likely to have value to tobacconists than to the Washington hockey club.
But Tyler you’re also one of the guys that would like to see more size up front, so you’ve got to be at least partly conflicted here.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 10, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Size without skill is ten times as worthless as skill without size.
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by J.P. on Sep 10, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, but size without skill is ten times more valuable thanprobably just as worthless as no skill and no size.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Sep 10, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
You’ll find no disagreement from me. I’m just thinking back to the Draft Day sentiments Tyler expressed when we drafted Johansson, Orlov, and Eaken. He mentioned that they were “too small” several times. Well GMGM went big for a few years with Fehr, Finley, Pokie and how did that work out? Really the only player with size that GMGM has hit on (pending Fehr’s development) is Schultz. Yet he snagged Perreault in the 6th round and SDR in the 7th round and as of now they both look like steals for that draft spot.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 10, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we’re comparing some non-comparables here. For a while GMGM drafted bodies rather than skill. Hasn’t worked out, except arguably in the case of 55.
My arguments on draft day were specifically about the Caps needing size at C as the Caps were small at C system-wide. (And in the AHL and in the SEL they still are.) I don’t recall having specific concerns about Orlov’s size on draft day, but like everyone else I’m now in love with the kid.
I just threw Orlov in because he’s also undersized. I don’t specifically remember you naming him either but he fit the description. I think my point stands regardless of position. Skill > Size. We had one of the biggest teams in the league the last two years but it didn’t matter. Obviously I’d prefer skill with size, but given the option of skill or size I’m taking skill every time. I can buy your argument about the need for size at the C a little bit more but looking at a lot of the premier Cs in the league I think you’ll see that being real big is not necessary to be a stud C.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 10, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, skill > size.
Being big is not necessary to being a stud C, but in the playoffs I’d sure rather have big, strong Cs than small, wispy Cs. (“Or big wispy Cs,” says the San Jose Sharks fan in the corner…)
I think the Joe Thornton example proves a lot. Size doesn’t matter if you don’t have the heart to use it. For most of the playoffs Hank and Crosby were the two best Cs, neither are 6 foot.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 10, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
But PIT has and had size at C elsewhere in their lineup. You don’t need four big Cs, but you need some.
Well we were statistically a bigger team than PIT, and Steckel is a big guy, so basically you’re looking at the top 2 Cs. Backstrom is just 6’ and I don’t think you’d argue for him to go anywhere. That essentially leaves the 2C slot as the one where you’d like to see a nice big C. Unfortunately, the biggest C we have in the system is Angus and he’s years away from contributing at that level.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 10, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m looking at 2C in particular re: a possible WSH vs. PIT spring matchup, yes. I wish the Caps had more size there. I’d guess GMGM and BB do too.
BabyGus has the structural integrity and body type of a wheat stalk. (And he may be a year away from contributing in the AHL, too.) Precisely why I’d like some bigger Cs in the system. But so would 30 NHL GMs, eh?
Yeah exactly. 6’2" guys with top 2C skill aren’t just floating around. I agree that Angus probably won’t do much in Hershey this year (4th line at best) but I’m not as down on his body type as you are. Based on his foray onto youtube I’d say his build is pretty solid for a 19-20 year old. If he can stay healthy I’m not really concerned with his build.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 10, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not sure BabyGus will MAKE Hershey this year! If he plays in the SEL he gives the Caps room to get another guy under contract, too. (Which may not be necessary now, but who knows later…)
LOL. I’m not sure you’re wrong, he may fill out. My not-so-into BabyGus bias is showing through here, I fear.
I’m actually not that big on him either, but it’s not because of size or body type. I don’t like the fact that he can’t stay healthy or even crack an SEL lineup when both Backstrom and Johansson were playing SEL before they were drafted. Angus doesn’t even think he can make the SEL team and get any ice, so I don’t see why he’d want to go back. If he’s gonna sit on the bench he may as well sit on the bench in Hershey and practice on a North American rink and learn the system. More likely though, he’ll play big minutes in SC and be the first call up to Hershey if/when he proves he can handle it/stay healthy.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 10, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
True. It’s not so much about being big, it’s about playing big. Being physical. Short players can win battles, tall players can play timid hockey. Reach is nice, but let’s not confuse height and presence.
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Apparently not, but I knew better to think you would be. I was just taking a little jab.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 10, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
If there’s any way we can increase the chances of one of our players beating the snot out of Iceburgh (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/04/Iceburgh.jpg) I’ll take my chances with him on line one.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Sep 10, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, if the oppsing team uses lawn mowers, the Caps will have distinct advantage…
Actually, I think the Caps view Finley as having one asset that you can’t coach someone to have, and that’s size. The team needs an enforcer in the future and Finley might fit the bill. They let Brash go, leaving Bradley in the role. Brads just turned 31 and has been around the block a few times (he’s also not particularly good as a fighter, certainly not like Brashear.)
But we’ll see. He certainly is a project, but he’s young, the team may get something out of him yet.
Let's go Caps!
he’s also not particularly good as a fighter, certainly not like Brashear.
-———
Was Brashear really any good at fighting – his single identifiable skill – last year? He didn’t do a whole lot of it, to start with, and he lost his share.
And while this has been fairly well hashed out here over the last couple years, I think it bears repeating that the whole concept of “deterrence” is at best somewhat nebulous. On Brashear’s watch, we had goaltenders abused, star players speared, and plenty of cheap shots rung up against our boys.
Yessir
Agree with your analysis regarding the implications of this positional switch: it likely means that the club doesn’t see Finley as a viable pro defenseman (this comports with the scouting reports we saw at The Rink from observers in Hershey, if I recall correctly), and sees his most likely productive role is as an enforcer.
The 2005 draft is ugly. However, once you’re drafting out of the Top 10, the draft is largely a crapshoot. Caps came up snakeyes in this one (Sasha Pokulok, ugh). However, taking a quick glance at the names that came after Finley inn that draft, nothing really jumped off the page at me. Guillaume Latendresse and Ondrej Pavelec are NHL’ers, there are probably some more that are developing well in The I…but more that won’t do squat in pro hockey.
I’m currently down on goons – would like to see them completely phased out of hockey, which is the most beautiful game imaginable when played properly – so I’m hoping that the future need for Finley’s “talents” is minimal.
However, taking a quick glance at the names that came after Finley inn that draft, nothing really jumped off the page at me. Guillaume Latendresse and Ondrej Pavelec are NHL’ers, there are probably some more that are developing well in The I…but more that won’t do squat in pro hockey.
Stastny is the big one that jumps out at me.
by David M. Getz on Sep 10, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m cool with goons and fights. Bench brawls in the ’80’s and early ’90’s often found on youtube are classics. We don’t see that culture anymore which is kind of a disrespect to tradition. I guess this happens naturally with an infusion of talent in the sport. Oh, and the media dissecting every little thing they can to make the sport “safe” or some ridiculous thing like that.
Cycle, scrap, win 50-50 pucks, get one shot, freeze the puck, eat up 30 seconds game time. Pretty much what you expect from an “energy line” guy, right? I just see it as Washington trying to get what they see as the maximum potential benefit out of a draft pick.
As for 2005, hey – after 2004, they earned a bad year. 2004 was an amazing draft year for Washington. Though, it is fun to look at all the “could have” drafts.. in 2005, for example, the Caps could have gotten Stastny, M-E Vlasic, S. Kostitsyn, and Darren Helm, all in the same year. 20/20 in hindsight!
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Yup, and because of that, we should fire Ted and GMGM and get a real GM. </CI>
I admit, I still read CI and occasionally comment over there. I’m pretty sure it’s a latent form of masochism, because it just makes my brain hurt some days.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I think it’d be pretty hard to fire Ted…
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 10, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
2004 and 2006 should be enough for Caps fans to stop playing “what if.”
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 10, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
No…no it’s not, because the game of “what if” is a favorite pastime while waiting for the season to start, of course!
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Pretty much. It’s a lighthearted exercise. Nothing serious meant by it.
As for CI, don’t read it myself.
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It may be a lighthearted exercise for you but we’ve all heard other Caps fans engage in that discussion in a far more serious manner. The draft is a crap shoot; you win some you lose some. Trying to reconstruct “could have beens” as though your team is the only one with the crystal ball doesn’t make sense. Anyone think we get Mike Green if teams got to redraft 2004?
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 10, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Amen. Absolutely agree. The history of the draft really has shown that there are very, very, very few sure things in hockey. I don’t fault GMGM one bit for 2005, in the same way that I am still amazed by 2004’s awesomeness, but won’t necessarily declare him Nostradamus Junior for it.
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I disagree slightly here. I, as most of us, no doubt, had been watching up to the ‘05 draft very closely and thought it was strange that they took a kid who wasn’t even on a lot of draft boards. Granted, Ryan O’Marra hasn’t done anything, either, but i’d have felt better about taking a kid who was on the Canadian WJC team than a huge NCAA kid.
But that was a weird year. The whole draft, from position to actual prospects, was BS.
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 10, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem with Finley isn’t Finley, it’s the calendar. He was drafted in 2005, before the NHL decided (backsliding aside) to shed the clutch-and-grab sort of style that players of limited skating ability could use to hide those deficiencies, or the more physical crease-clearing allowances of that period to a more open game with an emphasis on skating. Finley would have made a fine defenseman, maybe a second pair sort of guy… in 2003. Now? He is a one of a dwindling population of brontosaurs — the out-sized large defenseman. Zdeno Chara is the exception that proves the rule (he made himself a competent skater before the lockout).
Last season, there were only five defensemen 6’7" or taller. Only two of them played in more than 50 games (Chara and Hal Gill). Only six were listed at 245 pounds or greater. Three (Chara, Gill, and Pavel Kubina) played in at least 50 games. Three were both 6’7" and 245 pounds. Two — Chara and Gill — played in at least 50 games.
This is a dying breed of defenseman.
If you've read this far...seek help.
While true, I’m willing to give the guy a year, maybe two to see how he can hone his forwarding skills. I like him at forward better than defenseman anyway, for the reasons you listed. If he works on his skating and doesn’t mind playing 4th line minutes, he could slowly develop into a Tomas Holmstrom.
Or he could just be an oversized buffoon. I’m sure he’ll have a more successful ice hockey career than Manute Bol.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Sep 10, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
he could slowly develop into a Tomas Holmstrom
Really? I mean, really?
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Key being slowly, and could. No, I don’t think he could. But stranger things have happened. Also, he’d never be as good as that, but one could be hopeful that that’s his potential upside, a (very) poor man’s Holmstrom.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Sep 10, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
honestly, Tomas Holmstrom is a fairly unique player. And his decision to camp in front of the net and taking a beating for 75 games or so a season (except this year) has really taken a tremendous toll on his body. I’m not sure anyone can just decide they’re going to be a “Tomas Holmstrom type of player.” I’m not sure they’d want to.
I’d take that paycheck, a couple Cups, and that beating. He’s really not a very good skater so he didn’t have many other options if he wanted to play in the NHL.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 10, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not sure anyone can just decide they’re going to be a "Tomas Holmstrom type of player." I’m not sure they’d want to.
I dunno, there are plenty of guys who go out and fight 220 men on a regular basis for much less money. I think a lot of guys would take the beating for job.
I agree 100% on Holmstrom being a very unique player.
by David M. Getz on Sep 10, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
maybe I should have phrased it “I’m not sure most guys can put up with the wicked beating it takes to be like Tomas Holmstrom.”
Holmstron? That would be fantastic, but what are the odds?
Its not like the Caps are in a rush. They might as well try to salvage him. His future is reliant on his skating ability, though. If he isn’t an offensive producer, because he has no shot and no aim, he better skate like a ballerina or he’ll be working construction.
The skating ability is the big thing, and I’m not sure how well we can evaluate it as of now. The thing that killed his chances as a D was his lateral movement, especially while skating backwards. BB seemed to be satisfied with his straight ahead skating when he was in D Camp over the summer so he may be able to skate well enough to be an NHL caliber forward. We just don’t know yet.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 10, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, I’m arguing that trying to convert him into a forward is — at this point and in the current state of the NHL — probably the wisest course of action.
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Sep 10, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
You know, a 6’7 guy could really fill up the net nicely, and Finley just might have the skating ability for it…
I’m thinking that a 6’7" guy with an attitude fills up the goalie’s field of view really nicely, too. Remember that Mike Knuble didn’t get a serious break or serious ice time till he was 30 – think he’s useful now?
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
On the other hand, just being a big guy who blocks the goalie’s view isn’t nearly enough to warrant a jersey at the NHL level and while Knuble’s production jumped up a lot when he hit 30 he’d already been productive in college and juniors. It was a matter of finding out how to score in the NHL for him, not a matter of finding out how to score, period.
by David M. Getz on Sep 10, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe. I still wonder if there’s something there that we’re all missing.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I don’t understand why there are any more comments after this one. It’s settled, isn’t it?
Someone should call McPhee and Mark French and tell them to fire Finley. He’s never going to make it.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 10, 2009 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I know you’ve been on Tyler lately, but really – there is nothing that the coaches at North Dakota and every single NHL scouting department has “missed” on this guy. If he develops at F – even if this hail mary is caught – his upside is minimal.
If I set the over/under for career NHL goals for him at 10, are there any takers for the over?
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It’s the certainty that annoys me.
Is there anything that Tyler has access to that the entire Caps organization doesn’t? If his worthlessness was certain, then he’d have been Pokoluked by now. They’re trying to make something of him.
Maybe there’s a part of me with a soft spot for a kid who is willing to do anything, including put his face in the way of fists, to make a hockey team. Maybe it’s related to my user name. I don’t know.
What I do know is that we’re talking about someone who’s trying to earn his first job out of college here. Give him a break. Odds are he ends up in South Carolina. Maybe he spends his whole career there. That’s fine. But don’t take away his dream.
I’m 31, 5’ 9", and asthmatic. I never had a shot. Finley’s hanging on the cliff by his fingernails, being asked to change everything he’s been ever taught to do, but he’s hanging on there, and he’s doing it with good cheer. Don’t dismiss that. Even up to (and after) the day that he decides that it’s time to hang up his skates.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 10, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you’re arguing a different point than Tyler is. Tyler isn’t saying he’s worthless, but that the Caps didn’t shift him to forward because “there that we’re all missing,” rather because they could not envision him developing into an NHL defenseman and are trying to salvage something out of him.
And I don’t think being realistic in discussing his potential is taking away a kid’s dream, nor have I or will I ever question the quality of his character in handling this change – no need to demagogue here.
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by J.P. on Sep 11, 2009 7:43 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Could there be something there that the Capitals scouts and coaching staff see but has escaped everyone else? It’s possible, but unlikely.
Forgive me, but I find DMG’s formulation much more palatable. The finality to “There is not” is what I was responding to. You don’t know what he’s got in him. Nobody does. DMG is right that it’s unlikely. Hell, it’s more than just “unlikely.” But “There is not” impugns Finley’s character in a way that DMG’s phrasing doesn’t. It literally says there’s no more to this kid than he’s shown us already.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 11, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Whoa there – how does it impugn his character? It may impugn his skillset, but it’s a huge leap to say it speaks to his character.
And for a guy drafted four years ago, I think it’s fair to imply that there isn’t any more to this kid than he’s shown the coaches and scouts already. He may refine some skills, but people get hired and fired by their ability to evaluate talent and in four years, you’d think the Caps’ evaluators have a pretty good idea of what Joe Finley has and doesn’t have (which brings us back to the move, which is really the basis of all of this).
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by J.P. on Sep 11, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think it’s about 10 years too late for him to make the switch to goalie. If anyone could have done that and succeeded would have been Fedorov.
Comment first, think second, read third.
I’d take one phenomenal year buried in the middle of a mediocre career.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 10, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Both will have conditioning issues and smash lawn equipment?
"Why the [frak] would I live to 100? I'm 73 and [stuff's] starting to get boring. By the way, there's no money left when I go, just FYI."
by Bald Pollack on Sep 10, 2009 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions
oh, I dunno, imagine the possibilities in PR. The Caps fundraiser this year? Lawnmower throwing for distance, on the National Mall!
Don’t act like you wouldn’t pony up good money to see if you can throw a lawnmower further than Finley.
(or, maybe we dress some guy up in a Penguin costume and all take turns seeing who can hit him hardest?)
Help, the 2005 draft makes me hear voices
I’m not much for conspiracy theories. They’re often the work of lunatics. 2005’s draft still leaves me scratching my head, though. First of all, I didn’t like the “everyone gets a chance” nature of the post lockout draft. It should have remained the way it was the year before if anything, as no team had the ability to get better or worse. Second, I still find it highly dubious that Pittsburgh won. That team was on the brink of being the Kansas City Penguins. The part that made it the most questionable, to the budding conspiracy theorist babbling in my head, was the fact that everyone apparently had an equal chance to nab the #1 position. That’s what I would do, the voice said, if I were going to rig a lottery: make everyone think they had the same odds. Now, if there was, say, footage of a ping pong ball with #1 on it being pulled out of a machine and 29 selections following it, shot live and clearly unedited, the babbling voice might stop.
Can anyone fill me in on how that lottery worked? Quickly, while the voice is sleeping…
As a lockout cancelled the 2004–05 NHL season, the draft order was determined by lottery on July 22, 2005. Teams were assigned 1 to 3 balls based on their playoff appearances and first overall draft picks from the past three years.
Three balls: Buffalo Sabres, Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins
Two balls: Mighty Ducks of Anaheim, Atlanta Thrashers, Calgary Flames, Carolina Hurricanes, Chicago Blackhawks, Edmonton Oilers, Los Angeles Kings, Minnesota Wild, Nashville Predators, Phoenix Coyotes
One ball: Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Detroit Red Wings, Florida Panthers, Montreal Canadiens, New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers, San Jose Sharks, St. Louis Blues, Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks, Washington Capitals
Everyone had a chance at the top pick, but not everyone had an equal chance. I personally don’t believe the conspiracy theory but I also think it’s hard to argue that lottery system wasn’t really, really stupid.
by David M. Getz on Sep 10, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
The system they tried to go with was garbage. And, while not in full support of the conspiracy theory, I think Pittsburgh’s finishing last the season before and not having the first round draft pick (had we not won that lottery, we’d have had three balls – but no Ovechkin. We’d also probably have Cam Barker, and Chicago would likely have Evgeni Malkin). Regardless, it is what is now, and we can’t complain about it, but I think there’s more to the story behind if nothing else, the garbage system.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Sep 10, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I personally don’t believe the conspiracy theory but I also think it’s hard to argue that lottery system wasn’t really, really stupid.
My thoughts exactly (though I might go with “unfair” instead of “stupid”).
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One of the tricks of method design is in the assumptions. Play with those, and you alter the result. The key phrase is this one…
from the past three years
What’s so magical about three years? Why not four? Why not two? Why not, well… one?
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Sep 10, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Sounds like fanpost potential.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Sep 10, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks
Are the numbers actually on the balls? And the balls were assigned? Thats the detail I’m confused over. Did the NHL just hand everyone a few balls with numbers on them, thus three balls means a better chance that you have the #1 ball in your possession? Because then it all depends on how the NHL selected the numbers (essentially) and assigned them. If its a game of scrabble, with balls in a bag to choose from, its harder to conspire. The Pens would actually have to be involved in the conspiracy, and search for a sticky ball, or really feel around for a marked one. Highly unlikely. But if they assign, by presenting you with your numbers, then who is watching to make sure there are no shenanigans?
I’m pretty sure it was like a lottery ball machine, and the teams with three balls had three balls in the hopper, and the teams with one only one. You picked them 1-30, but they were revealed the opposite way.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Sep 10, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe the balls had team logos printed on them and were drawn out. First one returned had a Pens logo, the second a Ducks logo, etc.
by David M. Getz on Sep 10, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I wish I had enough money to get ping pong balls emblazoned with NHL team logos.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Sep 10, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
You could get 400 of them done at 81 cents a piece with a 100$ logo setup fee.
Comment first, think second, read third.
If they were that down on his pro potential as a defenseman then, really, why sign him at all? They would have received a late second rounder in next year’s draft by walking away and while that player would have been a long way off that would seem to have been the better asset management move than attempting to mold him into some freakish enforcer type. Yeah, there isn’t anything close to a big, hulking fighter in the system but those one-dimensional types can be drafted in the middle-to-late rounds.
It seems like a move in part because they’re afraid they’re going to miss Brashear going forward…and to me you’d think they would have just signed another upper-tier middleweight if that’s really what’s driving this change.
If they were that down on his pro potential as a defenseman then, really, why sign him at all? They would have received a late second rounder in next year’s draft by walking away and while that player would have been a long way off that would seem to have been the better asset management move than attempting to mold him into some freakish enforcer type.
Compensatory picks only apply when a team is unable to sign someone. Ergo if Finley had refused to sign, the Caps would have received that pick. A team can’t decide they no longer want a drafted player and get compensation for him.
by David M. Getz on Sep 10, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I know Minnesota walked away from AJ Thelen, their first-rounder in ‘04, and received a comp. pick. He was drafted prior to the existing CBA, though. I hadn’t heard of this changing with the new CBA, although that may perhaps explain things a bit.
I’m not sure exactly what happened in the Thelen case but the CBA wording is:
In the event a Club loses its draft rights to an Unsigned Draft Choice drafted in the first round of the Entry Draft (except as a result of failing to tender a required Bona Fide Offer (as defined below)), who is again eligible for the Entry Draft or becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent, a Compensatory Draft Selection shall automatically be granted to that Club,
by David M. Getz on Sep 10, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
What may have happened in Thelen’s case was that Minnesota may have offered a bona fide offer but it was just the absolute bare minimum offer and far below what a first rounder normally gets on their entry-level deals. Clearly this didn’t happen with Finley given that he signed a deal roughly comparable to first-round talents.
The org. likes Finley’s character and mean streak…they’re just looking to maximize the return on it. Definitely not a bad idea, just one that’s somewhat disappointing given his draft location.
For those of you watching Hard Knocks, this move reminds me very much of that Dline man’s move to Oline to save his career.
While Finley’s career probably isn’t in jeopardy, yet, I don’t know if he’s going to be much of value as an NHL defender. So if they can find a hidden gem with him at forward, why not.
But with how many skill players the Capitals have on the roster and in the wings, would you really want Finley suiting up over someone who could possibly be scoring instead?
Capitals Kremlin the second line center of the Caps blogosphere.
by CapitalsKremlin on Sep 10, 2009 1:06 PM EDT reply actions
Maybe he’d make a good dfensive forward that could thrive on the PK? That would be a very good thing. Maybe his marginal defensive skills will help him become that guy. And if he could scrap (and win) as well, great.
Speaking of which, what’s the deal with Blair Betts? Is he going to Philly?
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which sadly deprives the hockey world of the soap opera that would have been a Rangers dressing room with Betts and Brash.
Something New York certainly didn’t need. My heart really breaks a little for the Rangers.
by CapitalCentre on Sep 10, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder if he ends up being more of a Mike Knuble type of player. Your mission, should you choose to accept it:
#. Cross the blueline, hopefully not too far behind the play.
#. Go to the net, go directly to the net, do not pass Go, do not collect $200.
#. Plant self in front of goalie. Remain until puck possession is lost.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I have to agree. There’s a lot more to being able to produce at the level Knuble has in the way Knuble has than a big body and a willingness to get to the net.
by David M. Getz on Sep 10, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Joe Finley will not become Mike Knuble. Not now, not when he’s 30, not ever. It’s an insult to Knuble to even make the comparison.
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by J.P. on Sep 10, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Who took a leak in your Cheerios this morning, JP? You can disagree without belittling me, sheesh.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I didn’t see any belittling. There’s no chance Joe Finley will ever become Mike Knuble. What’s wrong with saying so?!
I think you guys missed my point here. My point was that some guys sit on the bench for years until you find their talent, like Knuble.
The “insult to Mike Knuble part” was a bit over the top.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I think you guys missed my point here. My point was that some guys sit on the bench for years until you find their talent, like Knuble.
I see where you’re coming from but I see it from a slightly different angle. Knuble showed he had talent before he was a top six NHL player by racking up goals and points in high school, juniors, the NCAA, and the AHL; it just took him a while to figure out how to translate that talent into NHL production (or to get a chance, depending on your take).
Finley, on the other hand, hasn’t shown that kind of talent. Of course that might partially be due to him playing as a defenseman but his modest production on the blue line and his skill set make me think he doesn’t have it.
by David M. Getz on Sep 10, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Like you, I wonder how much of that is because he was pegged as a defenseman because of his size. When he was in that one development camp as a forward, he was all over the place, in the thick of everything, and created multiple scoring chances for himself. That makes me think there’s something there that has juset gone ignored and has become latent because of it.
shrug Just my take, but I wonder if his coaches as a kid got hung up on his size, pegged him as defense, and never encouraged him to try anything else. I think this is an experiment worth trying.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
It’s an experiment worth trying if only because he won’t pan out as a D so they may as well grasp for something. I also agree with you that he may have been pigeonholed at a young age because of his size but I have to believe if he had any scoring acumen he would have shown it by now. I think it’s a stretch to think he’ll even make the NHL as a forward, and borderline delusional to think he’ll be anything more than a 4th liner, but you’re right that it can’t hurt to try.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 10, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I can see the possibility that he was stuck on defense because of his size – that seems to be a common situation with kids/teenagers. A lot of coaches are married to the ‘big, bruising defenseman’ and ‘small, shifty, skilled forward’ archetypes even though it takes more speed and skill to play defense successfully. Subsequently, at least when I was growing up, coaches would stick the big, lumbering guys on defense to start the season and they’d all be up front halfway through.
I wouldn’t put a ton of stock in the development camp given that Finley was a 22 year old playing with guys who were mostly several years younger than him, and that’s a world away from even the AHL.
Maybe there’s something there in terms of offensive potential, but I still think he was moved because they Caps decided he couldn’t play defense rather than because of the potential they saw at forward.
by David M. Getz on Sep 10, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Entirely possible, but then we all said last December that Pothier would never play another game, too. :) Shows what we know, eh?
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Maybe, but that’s an entirely different issue and someone’s prognosis changing because they had been misdiagnosed would surprise me a lot less than a defenseman who has never shown any offensive ability becoming a top six forward.
by David M. Getz on Sep 10, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think I belittled you so much as the idea that Finley can become Knuble.
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by J.P. on Sep 10, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m with GS on this one. We’re talking about a young man’s career here. His whole life up until now.
It’s one thing to say it’s extremely unlikely that he’ll become a star in the NHL (something I agree with). It’s another thing to say that it’s absolutely impossible, and insulting to current NHL players to suggest it.
He’s got a shot. He’s worked his ass off for it. Give the man his chance.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 10, 2009 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ll go on record saying it’s absolutely impossible that he’ll score 200+ NHL goals, as Knuble has.
And I’m all for giving him a shot, but at some point reality has to come into play. If anyone thinks that Finley’s realistic upside is Mike Knuble, I think their realistic upside is a room at St. Elizabeth’s.
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by J.P. on Sep 10, 2009 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
See above. Where there’s life, there’s hope.
Nobody’s saying it’s realistic or likely. Gotsparkly was saying that was his clearest path to making it as more than an enforcer — not that it would be easy. Nobody’s expecting it. But wow, to slam a door in a kid’s face before he even starts his first professional season — nobody knows what he’s capable of really. Let’s see what happens.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 10, 2009 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I love your determination on this. I hope he grows a third arm or something and becomes amazing just for you.
Comment first, think second, read third.
Dude, I’m not saying he’s going to be “amazing.” I’m not saying the odds are with him to make the NHL at all (see my voting record on the top players in the org). And if I’m not mistaken, gotsparkly was not saying that either.
GS was pointing out that if he’s going to be successful on wing and add any scoring to his game, then Holmstrom and Knuble should be his models. And she was proposing that maybe there’s something there that we haven’t seen yet. And frankly, people did jump down her throat about that.
Nobody has said that they’re expecting a steady 20 goals out of the kid at the NHL level, ever! We all recognize what DMG said in the original post on top, where he points out that the shift to wing is not a good thing for his odds.
What’s got me riled up is the dismissive tone that frankly was making this thread feel like a CI or message board thread. Nobody knows what the future holds. He’s fresh out of college, working as hard as he can to hold his dream together. There are respectful ways of saying “the odds are stacked against him.” DMG pulled it off in the original post.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 11, 2009 7:02 AM EDT up reply actions
G – can you point to one place where anyone said he’s got no chance of making it to the NHL?
What has been dismissed by some – and rightly so – is the assertion that a 6’7" defenseman-turned-forward can suddenly, at 22, jump on the career path of a prolific NCAA scoring forward or a guy who was playing on the Swedish National Team with guys like Forsberg and Naslund before he was drafted.
Please don’t turn this into more than it is – a reasonable discussion of a prospects, um, prospects.
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GS:
Maybe. I still wonder if there’s something there that we’re all missing.
Tyler:
There is not.
But compare to DMG:
Could there be something there that the Capitals scouts and coaching staff see but has escaped everyone else? It’s possible, but unlikely.
Apparently DMG didn’t get the memo. Finley’s got nothing more to show than what he’s shown us already. It has been decided.
Or how about this exchange:
Hunky Dory:
Maybe he’d make a good defensive forward that could thrive on the PK?
GS:
I wonder if he ends up being more of a Mike Knuble type of player.
I don’t think it’s crazy to think that if Finley has any chance at all, it’s by parking his rear in the crease — he doesn’t fit the mold of a defensive forward. She never said he’d be as good as Knuble. She said that was his path to continue his hockey career and make the most of what he’s got. That’s the kind of player he needs to become to make this transition work.
But she got:
It’s an insult to Knuble to even make the comparison.
No, it’s not an insult to Knuble. It’s praise. “Kid, learn a thing or two from Knuble during camp this year. Try to apply it this year in the ECHL (or if you blow us away, the AHL). And let’s see what happens.”
I’ll go on record saying it’s absolutely impossible that he’ll score 200+ NHL goals, as Knuble has.
Why even go there? Let’s wait and see if, beyond all likelihood, he does have something more to show us. He’s never been a wing before. Maybe, against the odds, he’ll shine in that role.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 11, 2009 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Thank you, that’s exactly what I was saying. Miracles happen and things happen that nobody could have predicted. Last year had its share of the unexpected.
Sure, the odds are stacked against him, but I can think of a few other guys against whom the odds were stacked and they proved us all wrong. That’s my point.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Sure, the odds are stacked against him, but I can think of a few other guys against whom the odds were stacked and they proved us all wrong. That’s my point.
I think we’d all agree to never say never (within the bounds of reason of course, i.e. I will say Joe Finley will never win an Art Ross award) but I am literally unaware of a single player who possessed a skill set and background comparable to Finley’s and became a top six forward.
Fourth line physical forward and enforcer? Sure. Mike Knuble-esque? I’d be beyond shocked.
by David M. Getz on Sep 11, 2009 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, and last December the consensus was that Pothier would never play another NHL game. Nobody knows everything, guys, and if you think you do, you need a reality check.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Why compare Finley to Pothier? Why not compare him to Jesus Christ himself, as it was unlikely that Jesus would rise after being crucified, but alas! He did!
Stop moving the goal posts on your argument – no one here thinks they know everything, no one here said he’s worthless. You argued that he could follow Knuble’s career path. Others disagree. It’s that simple.
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by J.P. on Sep 11, 2009 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
She never said he could “follow Knuble’s career path.” She said he could follow his lead on how to become an effective wing. That he didn’t really fit the mold of a defensive forward, and he’d be better off trying to make garbage goals happen.
I know it’s hard to follow what folks are responding to when there are lots of comments in between, but you need to look at the post she was replying to.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 11, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the simple answer here, honestly, is that you have all these guys anyway. You might as well develop each and every one of them to be the best player you think they can be at the best position you think them suitable for given their skill set, with the hopes that you have the best arsenal possible for your three teams (South Carolina, Hershey, Washington) going forward. You never know what’s going to happen. Trades happen, injuries happen.
We’re one badly placed METEO from a Flash-Steckel-Laich first line.
Even if Finley, given his size, skating, and stick skill, is the 34th best forward in our system (just a random number), he’s in our system. Do what you can to make him as good a player as you can, because you never know what the demands of a season are going to do to your lineups.
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I don’t think anyone’s saying the Capitals should ignore him or write him off entirely, just that his move to forward speaks volumes about where the organization thinks he stands right now.
Also, what’s a METEO and why is it going to knock off five Capitals forwards?
by David M. Getz on Sep 10, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, what’s a METEO and why is it going to knock off five Capitals forwards?
Um…
But he has also been playing an amatuer league that asses a game misconduct for a fighting major for the past four seasons.
Do you own or rent that glass house you live in, buddy?
"The worst thing you can be is a liar...Okay fine, yes, the worst thing you can be is a Nazi, but THEN, number two is liar. Nazi 1, Liar 2."
by Bald Pollack on Sep 10, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Huh? I wasn’t trying to criticize anyone’s spelling or grammar, I just thought METEO was an acronym I’m unfamiliar with since it’s in all caps.
by David M. Getz on Sep 10, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s my impression also.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 10, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
If the METEO reference is what I think it is, I love you forever, you spoony bard. :)
Last year was kind of living proof. Our blueline was a chocolate-covered mess for a couple of months last season, as I recall.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
A Final Fantasy reference, here? In regard to Finley?
I’m confused.
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 10, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
We’re one badly placed METEO from a Flash-Steckel-Laich first line.
In other words, disaster. :)
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Well, I’d have to say I’d be pretty suspicious of F-S-L’s collective black magic ability if they weren’t in the same place where METEO hit when it knocked everyone else out.
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 10, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
What threw me was that it wasn’t Whiter Mage posting about it…
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 10, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, the Caps’ best record, by month, last season, was the month in which the team was dealing with the most blue line injuries.
by Stephen Pepper on Sep 10, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s why we maintain there is a reason behind concern over the Caps’ defense. Although we looked at it from another direction.
If you've read this far...seek help.
I didn’t expect the METEO analogy to get quite so many comments! =)
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Not only was it initially confusing, it also tapped into the few of us who actually understood it and brought a few of us closer together :-).
by DrinkingPartner on Sep 10, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Finley is a large unskilled Avery. I’d bet dollars to doughnuts he never makes the caps roster. Though if he did and it was a caps/bruins final and he pulled Wheeler out of the handshake line my head would explode.
Fun fact: since the lockout, there have been only 10 goals scored by forwards standing 6’7" or taller (eight of which are Brian Boyle’s) in more than 254 man-games played.
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by J.P. on Sep 10, 2009 2:25 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
So you’re sayin’ there’s a chance…
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 10, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
And if Evgeny Artyuhkin is in the penalty box for doing something stupid YET AGAIN, does that count as “being in the NHL.”
by TylerG on Sep 10, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well he’s only 6’5" so however you characterize his “contributions” to the NHL he isn’t in J.P.’s defined pool of players.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 10, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Ha. He was my first thought as well.
A man must have a code.
by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 10, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
So, was this draft the crucible in which GMGM steeled his resolve that it doesn’t matter if you have 20 guys who play one position, or the one where he decided that ‘best available’ prevails, irrespective of positional need? Just checking.
C’monnnnnnnnnnnnn Viktor!
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
82 | 54 | 15 | 13 | 121 |
|
Atlanta
|
82 | 35 | 34 | 13 | 83 |
|
Carolina
|
82 | 35 | 37 | 10 | 80 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
82 | 34 | 36 | 12 | 80 |
|
Florida
|
82 | 32 | 37 | 13 | 77 |
(updated 4.12.2010 at 9:21 AM EDT)
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