Top 5 Goalies

Lundqvist
Luongo
Brodeur
Nabokov
The Other Backstrom

6 months ago Fehr and Balanced 13 comments 0 recs |

Comments

What’s the time-frame you’re using for these choices?

I would take Miller or Vokoun over Nabakov. Mason too, if he’s not a one hit wonder. Kudos for leaving Kiprusoff off the list though, he’s been declining each year since the lockout; I have to believe his workload is catching up with him.

I might quibble with your top ordering, but Lundqvist carried a very mediocre Ranger’s squad to the playoffs and was their workhorse (70 games played). Luongo got himself injured, but still posted gaudy numbers when he came back (9 shutouts in 54 games? Keeey-reist.)

by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 6:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Time frame isn’t particularly short term or long term. Except for the D choices I looked at it as a GM building a team concerned with short and long term. I could see Miller and Vokoun getting on the list but they’ve both been banged up a bit of late. The key with Mason is the “if he’s not a one hit wonder.” We don’t know the answer to that yet and I’m not putting him top 5 until we do.

A man must have a code.

by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 1, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s true that Miller’s been banged up, he played 76 games the season before the most recent. I don’t think that was good for him – his stats suffered, they looked a lot like Theodore’s this years, bar games played – but I can’t prove causation for his stat-dip.

He still played 59 games last year and 63 three years ago, on the whole he’s been pretty durable.

by Knee high to a duck on Sep 1, 2009 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’ll be very interested to see how this list compares to Alan Ryder’s NHL review when he publishes it. I suspect that Nabokov won’t be anywhere near the top 5, and Backstrom probably won’t make it either.

by LSF76 on Sep 2, 2009 12:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The goalies were the hardest to pick. It’s a crapshot to a large degree. I favor guys that have done it for longer in general but I suspect this list is the one that is going to have the most differing opinions. I’m sure most people have Tim Thomas higher on their list but I’m not sold on a guy that comes out of nowhere when he’s 33-34 and plays way above any level he’s ever shown before. Smells too much like Jim Carey’s long lost crazy uncle to me.

A man must have a code.

by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 2, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I get the flukiness when it comes to Thomas. However, Nabokov is pretty much a textbook case of a mediocre goalie who looks good because of the talent around him (and because he gets a ton of starts). See his save% as a rough indication. Backstrom’s issue is more subtle. His save% is good, but it’s because his team is willing to allow a high number of shots as long as they are low-quality, while minimizing high-quality shots. In another system his save% wouldn’t be as high.

What’s great about Ryder is that he accounts for shot quality to differentiate goalie performance from the defensemen (among other things).

by LSF76 on Sep 2, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nabokov has played 8 seasons in SJS and really only 2005-06 was a bad year. He has 4 exceptional seasons in that stretch, and a Calder Trophy. SJS is a powerhouse now, but they weren’t earlier in his career. He had some very good years with some much less talented teams. I don’t think he was very good last season but he also had a knee injury in the middle of the year so I’m willing to cut him slack. I’ll be watching him closely this year and if he doesn’t pick it up I may be ready to lose faith in him.

Backstrom certainly benefits from MIN’s system but he’s still a good goalie. I agree that shot quality is important but I’m not willing to judge goalies by statistics. I’ve said this before (I don’t know if you’ve caught it) but to me a goalie’s 2 biggest jobs are to not let in any soft goals, and make a save when your team needs a save (maintain above a .900 sv% is a distant 3rd criteria). Neither of those are statistically quantifiable so I am basically basing this off of what I’ve seen from these goalies. Not all goals against are created equal and I’m trying to account for that.

A man must have a code.

by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 2, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, Nobokov has had some very good years. I never said he was bad, I said he was mediocre. Maybe that’s unfair since he’s probably above average, but my point is he’s not elite now and everyone thinks he is (maybe he was earlier in his career).

Backstrom is also certainly a good goalie. Just how good is hard to say, though, because of Minny’s system.

I agree in theory that not allowing soft goals and making key saves are the most important tasks, but the only way to identify those features is to watch most of the games a goalie plays. You can do that with one guy, but you can’t do it with more than that unless it’s your job. Statistics are the substitute for scouting when scouting is not a feasible option.

by LSF76 on Sep 2, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Have you ever heard Daryl Reaugh’s quote about statistics? “Statistics are like bikinis, they tell a lot, but not everything.” That’s especially true with goalies. I know my criteria make it hard to really judge goalies, but that’s inherent in trying to judge goalies because of different systems and personnel. I watch a lot of hockey, including almost every single playoff game. Some (a lady) call it a problem. This is just my take based on what I’ve seen. Who’ve you got?

A man must have a code.

by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 2, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s all well and good for you to bash stats, but on what basis are you (or anyone) judging Nabokov to be elite? Wins are a stat. (I do respect that you try to watch as many games as possible.)

I’m no expert, so I’ll turn it over to the top hockey stats guy, Alan Ryder of www.hockeyanalytics.com. He doesn’t have the stats yet for 08-09, so here are the 2 previous years:

Ryder’s top 6 goalies in 2007-08, ranked by total value:
1. Vokoun (not nominated for the Vezina because he was on a bad team)
2. Brodeur (won Vezina)
3. Giguere
4. Thomas (that’s Thomas a year ago, not last year, remember)
5-6. Luongo and Lunqvist in a virtual tie

Ryder’s top 6 goalies in 2006-07, ranked by total value:
1. Luongo
2. Broduer (won Vezina)
3. Lehtonen (another good goalie on a bad team)
4. DiPietro (let’s move on)
5. Lunqvist
6. Mason

Neither Nabokov nor Backstrom was in the top 6 in either year. Based on these lists, I certainly agree with Luongo, Brodeur, or Lundqvist, who appear in the top 6 in both years (and other than Brodeur almost certainly appear again this year). But I think I would add Vokoun and Thomas over Nabokov and Backstrom.

by LSF76 on Sep 3, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like Vokoun as well, I’m not knocking him. I think those two lists prove my point that goaltending is a bit of a crapshot. Both years had at least one guy that fell off the subsequent year. Vokoun almost lost the No. 1 job last year; Giguere did lose his job. Lehtonen, DP, and Mason all fell off after 06-07. It’s hard to judge goalies, and that’s just inescapable.

Just to be clear, I’m not bashing stats. I’m not a stathead by any means but I always look at the stats and try to glean what I can from them. I’ll never just see a stat and think of it as determinative in and of itself, because stats are shorthand for a larger meaning, and unless the connection between the stat and larger picture is meaningful and robust, why put your faith in it? Yes, wins are a stat, but I didn’t support my choice of any of these goalies based on wins.

I think Nabokov is elite because I’ve seen him carry mediocre teams, and I’ve seen him make huge saves that SJS needed in particular games. Last year he had a down year, and that is reflected in his position on my list. Another year like that and he’s probably off my list. Yes, SJS is a great team now, but sometimes just facing 18-20 shots a game is misleading. Brodeur routinely made 2-3 huge saves a game when he was only facing 18-20 a game, but those saves were absolutely necessary and the kind of save I’m talking about when I say “make the save when your team needs it.” I’ve seen Nabokov make those saves for SJS (no, not last season in the playoffs, but fwiw Brodeur did the same thing last year) and generally when he’s in the net I have less concern that he’s going to hurt his team than most other goalies in the league.

I’m not trying to be antagonistic, but it’s pretty easy for you to sit back and poke holes in my list, there aren’t many flawless goalies in the league so there’s something to critique them all on. What’s your list?

A man must have a code.

by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did Vokoun almost lose his job last year? He was tied for 12th in the league in games started with 55. But I will take your word for it.

I’m also not trying to be antagonistic. Your list is not bad. Nabokov is the only guy on there who I think really doesn’t belong. Backstrom would probably be an honorable mention for me. I already gave you my list, but here it is in order (accounting for age):

1. Luongo
2. Lundqvist
3. Brodeur
4. Vokoun
5. Thomas
Honorable mention: Backstrom

by LSF76 on Sep 3, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah sorry, I kinda overlooked your suggestion. I had thought the Vokoun/Anderson split was a little closer than it was (Anderson got 31 GP) but I know that there was some discussion about whether to resign Anderson and move Vokoun or keep Vokoun and let Anderson walk. Anderson had a few stints where he started 4+ games in a row; not the traditional spot duty of a back up. His numbers were also very close to Vokouns. But I do agree Vokoun is a better goalie and don’t really have a problem putting him on the list. As I said above Thomas hasn’t sold me yet just because he came out of nowhere and has only done it 2 seasons so far. If he can keep it up he’ll be on my top 5 list but he’s already over 35 so it’s not like he’s going to have any sort of longevity.

A man must have a code.

by Fehr and Balanced on Sep 3, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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