Eric Fehr, a Corsi Superstar
by b.orr4 on Aug 7, 2009 3:27 PM EDT
31 comments
First off, a big h/t to The Puck Stops Here (TPSH) on Kukla’s Korner for all this data. I’m hardly an expert on Corsi Ratings, but they do seem to present a different perspective that a lot of people find useful. In any case, there’s been a great deal of discussion about Eric Fehr and his potential as a top six player. I’m in the camp that believes Eric had a pretty good season last year and with increased time could blossom into a legitimate scorer in the league. Of course, the big proviso on any discussion of Fehr are his ongoing injury problems. His recent double shoulder surgery and the news that he hasn’t even started weight training or skating makes me worry that this season could be a waste (despite Eric’s assertions that he’ll be ready for opening day).
All that brings me to the Corsi numbers that TPSH just released. As they explain, "The Corsi Number is the difference in the number of shots directed at the net (shots on goal, blocked shots and missed shots) taken by a team while a given player is on the ice and those taken by his opponents in five on five situations."
In their latest post, TPSH has adjusted those numbers to reflect per minute of ice time to see which players were most effective regardless of how much ice time they received. From what I can determine, there doesn’t appear to have been a limit on how little ice time a player received ( I could be wrong on that), but players had to appear in at least 50 games to make the list. So given those qualifiers, here are their top 20 adjusted Corsi ratings for 2008/09:
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2008/09 Top 20 Adjusted Corsi Rates |
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Rank |
Player | Team | Corsi | ||
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1 |
Ana |
+21.0 |
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2 |
Ana |
+20.6 |
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3 |
Was |
+17.8 |
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4 |
Flo |
+17.1 |
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5 |
NJD |
+16.3 |
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6 |
Edm |
+16.3 |
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|
|
|
7 |
Marc-Andre Bergeron |
Min |
+16.3 |
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|
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8 |
Ana |
+16.2 |
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|
|
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9 |
Eric Fehr |
Was |
+16,2 |
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10 |
Nas |
+16.2 |
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11 |
Cal |
+16.1 |
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12 |
NYI |
+15.9 |
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|
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13 |
Van |
+15.7 |
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14 |
NYR |
+15.5 |
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15 |
Edm |
+15.4 |
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16 |
Pit |
+15.2 |
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17 |
Car |
+14.9 |
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18 |
NYI |
+14.9 |
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|
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19 |
Marc Giordano |
Cal |
+14.8 |
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20 |
Ana |
+14.8 |
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|
Now, the first eight names on the list aren’t that surprising. However, seeing Fehr pop up in the top ten kind of shocked me. As TPSH explained, "This adjusted Corsi list is a group of players who succeeded in the roles in which they played last year. Those that played more limited roles are ready to increase their playing time with their team. Those that played frontline roles are NHL stars."
I don’t know if this validates the belief that Fehr is deserving of more ice time, but it at least raises questions of what he could do if given top six minutes. Again, I’m not a Corsi expert by any stretch, so I’m putting this out there in the hopes that those who do know this stuff can explain the significance of these numbers. At least it’s something to talk about on a slow August day.
For those who want to see the original post, just click here.
If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's authors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.
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He ain’t the Official Japers’ Rink Archivist for nothin’…
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
This adjusted Corsi list is a group of players who succeeded in the roles in which they played last year.
I don’t think you’ll find anyone on the planet who would agree that Dustin Penner and M-A Bergeron meet that criterion.
That said, we’ve consistently pegged Fehr as a high Corsi guy and someone who has produced in the limited ice time that he’s gotten (though he hasn’t been able to take advantage of increased and better ice time, it seem).
One more interesting and relevant stat here further to that last point – if a decent measure of how much offense a dude is creating is goals/60 + primary assist/60 (i.e. he’s either scoring or directly setting up the goal, more or less), Fehr came in at 1.51 per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 time last year… the same rate at which Nicklas Backstrom produced.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Interesting. Like I said, Corsi is a different language to me, but seeing Fehr’s name on the same level as guys like Parise and Booth was interesting. I’d love to see him play a full season, free of injuries on one of the top two lines just to fianlly find out what he’s capable of doing. I’m not sure that’s ever going to happen though.
Not to mention the dearth of penalties he seemed to be drawing last season. That may not factor directly into this evaluation, but should be considered especially given the Awesomeness our PP showed last season? The guys that seem to draw penalties are your fifth-and-a-half PP specialists. Or something.
"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it."
- Ferris Bueller
by war_capitals on Aug 10, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Now, the first eight names on the list aren’t that surprising.
Disagree. 1, 2, 5 are the only ones that don’t surprise me in the top 12. I’d say overall maybe 5 guys on that list don’t surprise me. Good job for Fehr but given the other names on the list (and who’s not on it) I don’t know that it matters that much.
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 7, 2009 3:52 PM EDT reply actions
I don’t know that it matters that much.
No, but it’s just another piece of statistical evidence showing the Fehr deserved to at least cut into some of Flash’s ice time…and to get more of a shot on the PP.
While I’ve never been a huge Fehr supporter on here, I am/was surprised to see the names ahead of him on the PP TOI/G list…Giroux, Bourque, Clark, Nylander, Flash and Kozlov. Granted Kozlov and Flash aren’t that surprising, the fact that Fehr only averaged 45 seconds a game is. I mean 45 minutes ALL year…
This is a trick right? Reverse psychology? You’re not going to get me to stick up for Flash and knock Fehr just by disagreeing with me, Yosh.
Of course you know I’d like to see Fehr get more of a chance, I’m just saying this information isn’t as persuasive as some of the other stats are (specifically his production relative to his teammates).
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 7, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Disagree. 1, 2, 5 are the only ones that don’t surprise me in the top 12.
I’ll give you Penner and maybe Feds, although he’s a special case. But David Booth and Bobby Ryan are fantastic players and there isn’t a team in the league that wouldn’t want them in their top six. Bergeron I haven’t seen play that much, but he is a defenseman who scored 14 goals, was a +5 and played top four minutes. The point I was trying to make was that every guy above Fehr played a far more important role with their respective teams than Fehr and that maybe that was a case for increased ice time for Eric.
My surprise is because I expected the top Corsi guys to be excellent two-way players. You need shots for and low shots against. Bergeron is a one-trick pony. He’s an offensive Dman but doesn’t give you much D so I figured he’d give up a ton of shots 5 on 5. David Booth is awesome, I love him (just go ask W4E at Litter Box Cats), but FLA didn’t have a ton of offense and he didn’t have huge numbers so I just didn’t expect him to be in the group. I’m less surprised about him than others but I didn’t expect it. Bobby Ryan is a rookie so I just didn’t think his game was developed enough in his own end to get top ten on this list. That said, I probably should have expected it given 1 and 2 on the list. I agree with your last sentence, there are a lot of stats that suggest Fehr should get more ice. Who knows, maybe BB is judging by his eyes (aaaaaaaaagh His Eyes!!!!).
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 7, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Valid points. I think everybody wants Fehr to succeed and stop being such a tease.
by b.orr4 on Aug 7, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I could stand to be teased a little more, but yeah.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I’ve said it elsewhere and I’ll say it again — there have been a few interviews this summer that led me to think the team isn’t happy with Fehr’s preparation level. Just guys hinting that he doesn’t take direction well, isn’t doing what they want at practice, and so on. More what isn’t being said than what is being said. I don’t know, it’s a vibe…
I don’t know. It’s hard to question the committement of a guy who’s willing to let his wife handle his “bathroom duties” for three weeks, just so he can be ready for camp. Now, that’s dedication. :-)
Got links to any of those interviews? I don’t remember reading anything that set off any flags like that.
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 7, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s a vibe, and it’s things that aren’t said. Nobody comes out and says anything. One was Boudreau talking during the hour long fan conference call. Another was an interview either on or just after strike day.
I know it’s irritating that I say stuff like this and don’t have anything to point to, but I just don’t remember what left me with that impression.
by Gould Old Days on Aug 7, 2009 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I know what you mean. It’s how I feel about Eminger. But Fehr hasn’t been healthy enough to do anything so I always assumed it was that.
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 7, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Any chance Fehr’s numbers are inflated due to small sample size? I seem to remember he got incredibly hot for like 8 games last season and didn’t do much of anything the rest of the time.
That no Detroit Red Wing (and only one Pen) makes this list is shocking, really.
I’m not sure how telling adjusted Corsi is as a rate stat (per minute of ice time) for an individual. In a nutshell, my hunch is that some of these guys are benefitting from the fruits of others’ labors: for example, you take Penner away from Hemsky, and their numbers go in different directions. Some may disagree, but I think these data back this assertion up.
from the house that Red Jesus built
The Pen put the majority of his stats together with the Ducks, so even that is qualified. I definitely agree that there is an unmeasurable team/teammate influence going on that makes it hard to interpret the results.
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 7, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
good point on Kunitz. I only wanted to point out that the two SC finalists, DET in particular, routinely pump more shots at the net than their opponents, yet none of their players are in the top twenty…
from the house that Red Jesus built
Exactly. This isn’t a reflection of scoring, this isn’t a reflection of puck possession, as the KK link notes this isn’t even about great defensive play. I have no idea what to take away from this list.
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 7, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
82 | 54 | 15 | 13 | 121 |
|
Atlanta
|
82 | 35 | 34 | 13 | 83 |
|
Carolina
|
82 | 35 | 37 | 10 | 80 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
82 | 34 | 36 | 12 | 80 |
|
Florida
|
82 | 32 | 37 | 13 | 77 |
(updated 4.12.2010 at 9:21 AM EDT)
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