Ranking the Capitals: #6
by J.P. on Aug 4, 2009 2:48 PM EDT
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PrintIn an effort to beat the summer doldrums, we're undertaking to rank - with your help - the Washington Capitals, from Ovechkin to, well, we'll see. The criteria is simple: who is the most valuable player in the organization who hasn't already been ranked? Put another way, if you could only keep one of the remaining players, who would it be (or who would have the most value in trade as of right now)? Consider age, potential, contract status, organizational depth, etc. - it's your call. And after you vote and defend your selection in the comments, help us out and suggest a name to add to the next poll. [Note: previous "Ranking the Capitals" posts can be found here."]
Welcome Simeon Varlamov to the list, and Tomas Fleischmann to the poll...
- Alex Ovechkin
- Nicklas Backstrom
- Mike Green
- Alexander Semin
- Simeon Varlamov
If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.
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I went with Jeff Schultz. He may not be a Chara, but shuts down opposing forwards pretty well. I think Alzner ends up as Green’s “security blanket,” which to me is less important than a defenseman on a shutdown pair.
And he’s cheap. Valuable in terms of finances too.
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Contract value is really the only thing that he has going for him in this poll though. In my opinion, his potential is less than Alzner, his current skill is less than Poti, his intangibles are less than Laich, and his physicality is even less than Fleischmann.
I went with Laich on the thought that of all those listed, he would be my first pick to join my team. I think Alzner has a solid case for being the choice as well.
Contract value is really the only thing that he has going for him in this poll though. In my opinion, his potential is less than Alzner, his current skill is less than Poti, his intangibles are less than Laich, and his physicality is even less than Fleischmann.
Perhaps, but player value isn’t measured by how effective they are relative to attributes chosen randomly from teammates. And by what measure is Schultz’s physicality less then Fleischmann’s consider that Fleischmann is smaller, hits less, gets pushed around more, and can look intimidated at times?
Alzner got my vote this time. Credit goes to the rhetorical talents of F&B, and everyone else on that part of the last thread. My thinking now goes like this:
“Hey, the Caps traded Poti.” — “Really, that’s odd, what’d they get.”
“Hey, the Caps traded Alzner.” — “What the frack are you talking about!? Is GMGM out of his ever-loving mind? I don’t care what they got, that’s freaking insane!”
by Gould Old Days on Aug 4, 2009 3:16 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
It’s hard for me. My criterion has simply been “who most helps this team win a cup.” Well, I can’t see the Caps winning a cup without Poti this year. I can easily see it happening without Alzner.
And yet, Alzner is so valuable for the team’s chances of winning “a” cup in future years that I have to go with him, in terms of who’s the most valuable asset.
by Gould Old Days on Aug 4, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Wouldn’t you be more confused by a Carlson trade than an Alzner one? Shouldn’t Carlson win by those standards?
by DrinkingPartner on Aug 4, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m one of the biggest Carlson boosters around here, but I still believe Alzner is the better prospect overall. Oddly, I think Carlson may be more NHL ready right now than Alzner. Carlson may be closer to his ultimate potential.
But I see Alzner as graduating into that quiet, steady, minute eating shutdown defensemen that there just aren’t enough of. For one thing, Alzner still has a better pedigree and has proven more at every level (he does have an extra year).
Carlson’s close in my mind for sure.
by Gould Old Days on Aug 4, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
^^^ What he said ^^^
Just as in the last poll, you posted exactly what I went through in making my decision. I voted for Poti in the last poll, because I think he’s important to the caps ability to win a cup in 2009-2010. BUT, I think he can be replaced by a similar player at the trade deadline fairly easily, he’s expensive, and he’s nearing the end of his tenure here. So from an “age, potential, contract status, etc” standpoint, Alzner has now surpassed him (by a fair margin) in my re-considered analysis.
Alzner here as well. He’ll be more important than Schultz long-term, he’s probably the smartest (hockey sense) prospect we have period (not just among the D), he’s got the potential to have all the interviewing prowess of Laich (and the leadership, presumably, to boot).
Tough to weigh now vs. the future, but he’s on the cusp of being a real contributor right now so I think it’s justifiable.
I’m looking forward to voting for 2nd-to-last place. Just as we started at #2 because of Ovie, we probably don’t even need to vote for last place, because we all know who that’ll be, and we’d just be Nylandering if we were to argue about it. The real question is, who will the title of “2nd worst” go to?
"My face is my mask."
Laich
I’ve voted for him over Semin and Varly the last 2 votes. He’s valuable in every facet of the game for us and he’ll only get better. Plus he’s signed for relatively cheap.
Semin’s upside, offensively and defensively (PKing, at least) are astronomically higher than Laich. He’s a more consistent player, but in no way, IMO, should he be ranked above Semin in the scheme of the team.
by DrinkingPartner on Aug 4, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I like Laich a lot…one of my favorite players on the team…but IMO he’s one of the more overrated players on the team.
by Yoshietree on Aug 4, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed. He and Steckel right now are, um, well admired.
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If Brooks Laich is our 5th most valuable player
I think we may be in trouble.
http://dclandingstrip.blogspot.com/
Damn it, in response to my response to Gus16.
by DrinkingPartner on Aug 4, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ll go Knuble, mostly for argument’s sake.
There are guys who have been here longer, and guys with more long-term upside, but as good as the Caps are/have been we knew we needed more grit, more hard-nosing, and more veteran leadership (with less of the tangy lactic acid and more of the minty fresh leadership). These traits improve the game of everyone, inspire, and teach.
I don’t know if that’s better than Alzner or Laich arguments, and between Knuble and Laich, Laich is certainly the better known quantity with the team, but it looks from voting like a lot of people are considering these traits relevant at #6
You just can’t have enough guys on your team like 21. I really like what Alzner will bring—and soon- but I love what I know Laich brings to the team every night. Captain material goes a long way.
from the house that Red Jesus built
I’m not going to rehash my Alzner argument from yesterday, but Alzner is Captain material. Based on everywhere he’s played Alzner is extremely steady and consistent, I haven’t ever heard a hint that you don’t know what he’s bringing every night. You can take all your praises for Laich and they apply equally to Alzner, with more talent and upside.
Well then you should be pushing Knuble votes for people who like Laich. Knuble won’t win this round, but he’ll sap votes away from Laich. He’s the Ralph Nader of Caps leadership voting.
“If you like Laich, try new Knuble, it’s minty fresh”
I’m voting for Alzner because I believe it’s the right thing to do. It’s a personality trait that makes me particularly unelectable (a fact that I carry with great pride). I refuse to taint my pristine summertime hockey conversations with the filth that is American electoral politics.
So then you agree: if I wanted to vote for the “winner(?)” I wouldn’t have voted for Knuble like I did. In doing so I am also taking a vote away from Laich who would otherwise probably be my next pick.
The whole voting scenario is a bit fantasty here, but if I’ve only got 6 playaz on a team, and one is a goalie and one is a “stud defenseman” (grumble), I personally don’t want another defenseman just yet in the 6 slot. Your results may vary…
If you only have 6 spots to fill I’d prefer to get a 2nd Dman before a 4th forward.
by Killer_Carlson on Aug 5, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm pretty confused
Do we have some voters with an agenda? Are people putting a bit too much into prospects with less than a season under their belt vs. proven players?
So the vote between Laich & Varlamov is fairly close. Varlamov wins, somewhat expected, definitely not a surprise. Knuble and Poti practically double Alzner’s votes in that poll.
Laich is obviously the next winner, but I’d venture a large chunk of those who votes for Varlamov are now voting for Alzner? What’s the deal with that?
The deal is that people see more current value as they define it in a potential franchise defenseman and franchise goalie than in a 2nd/3rd line forward. It’s plenty defensible.
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So at what point does it get simply ridiculous? After Alzner, are we going to keep seeing prospects win? Osala? Carlson? Neuvirth? Trust me, I love prospects just as much if not more than the next guy, but you can’t put each of them above solid NHL players just because they performed well in Juniors and/or the AHL.
Look at Steckel – a consistent guy who has proven he can perform in crunch time – the same goes for Bradley (who was expecting 2-4-6 in 14gp, vs 5-6-11 in 81gp?). But these are 3rd and 4th liners, so I’m sure they’ll be ‘brushed aside’ by the fan base. I’m not saying either of these guys should be ranked higher than Alzner for example, but sadly, it wouldn’t surprise me if a guy like Bourque was voted as such.
Define solid NHL player. To me personally Laich, Steckel, Bradley, et al are all great Caps who I enjoy watching. But when push comes to shove they are all 3rd/4th liners that can be replaced by prospects. Do I think Osala should replace Laich this season? Absolutely not. But in terms of value to the francise a blue chip defenseman is more valuable than a 3rd line winger. A solid goalie prospect (even though I haven’t voted for him yet) is more valuable than a PK/FO specialist.
That being said Laich and Steckel will both probably get higher votes (from me) than any of the other prospects.
Guys like Brooks don’t come along very often. He shouldn’t be lumped in with Bradley.
by zephyr on Aug 5, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Guys like Brooks don’t come along very often.
I don’t mean any disrespect by this…but I hate phrases like this. What quality are you talking about? Leadership? Points production? Defense? Special teams specialist?
I’ve said it three times in this tread now…Laich is one of my favorite players on this squad right now…as is Bradley…because I am partial to blue collar players.
But at the same time, Laich does not bring that much more to the table than the other 3rd/4th lines. 45% of his points last year came on the PP. That number is surely going to go down as his PP time is going to be almost non-existent this year.
Are you going to feel the same way about Laich when his point production drops to around where it was last year?
Laich stands out as a consistent hard-working player on a team full of superstars. That alone says something about the guy.
I won’t go crying if his point production goes down. It’s to be expected with a player like Knuble coming in.
No. He brings far more to the table than Fehr, Fleischmann, Steckel, Bradley, etc. Each of those guys has their own little specialization on this team, but Laich can pretty much do it all. Add in the leadership on top of it.
Laich isn’t a great scorer and he’s not a guy who is going to shut down the opposition. He has a well-rounded game and no glaring weaknesses but “can pretty much do it all” is a bit of a stretch.
He goes to the net more than Fehr, he scores more than Fleischmann, he kills penalties just as well as Steckel, and he’s overall better than Bradley.
How does he not ‘do it all’ compared to those guys?
Good straw man. Pick on two of the most constantly under-achieving prospects and then two 4th liners. He doesn’t kill penalties as well as Steckel, but I can let that slide. I’m making the argument for Alzner over Laich. I wouldn’t vote any of those guys over him. Laich is probably going to be the next guy I vote for that was on the 08-09 Caps. But before that you gotta take care of the future.
He has been defined by a few people in this thread as a 3rd/4th liner.. who else do you want me to compare him to? Semin? Backstrom? Ovechkin? Obviously none of those guys are considered 3rd/4th liners.
So then, who are the 3rd/4th liners? Steckel, Bradley, Clark, Fehr, Gordon, Clark, Fleischmann, Nylander?
He’s outperformed every single of them.
I have repeatedly said that he’s a 3rd liner with 2nd line upside. I also said I don’t want him compared to other depth players. I’m comparing him to a friggin’ franchise D, elite shutdown player. Sure, he looks like roses when you compare him to checkers, but not against any manner of franchise player. Read around the post.
Where? The only time the 4th line has been brought up is either talking about specific skills or talking about other players that brings certain skills (Bradley). Where am I missing a “Laich is a 4th liner” statement?
And, as F&B has said, that’s still a bit of a straw-man since the comparison is to Alzner, no “other 3rd/4th liners.” Alzner is likely considered more valuable than any “true” 2nd liner among those that voted for him regardless.
I’m with Yosh. How does a 3rd line guy not “come around very often.” It’s not like he’s some super-3rd liner. He’s a team guy that does his job. Great. Every teams needs that. But not as their 6th most valuable guy.
AO, Backstrom, Green, Semin, Varlamov, Laich. Which one of these is not like the others?
You’re mistaking “valuable” and “most valuable.”
No one here thinks Laich isn’t valuable. They/we just think others have more value (and I’m a huge, huge Laich fan).
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I didn’t say he’s not valuable, I said he’s replaceable. I said he isn’t a guy that “doesn’t come around very often.” You think Talbot is the 6th most important Pen? Be my guest. Crosby, Malkin, Gonchar, MAF, Staal, Letang, Orpik, Kunitz, Goligoski are probably all ahead of him on the “must have” list. You can have value without being the top 6.
Kunitz in front of Talbot? Really? Look at his playoff numbers, including game 7 finals performance. For a guy who played 4th line for much of the year, he made one hell of a difference.
Maybe Kunitz falls below Talbot. Maybe. You’d have to ask Hooks that one.
a guy who played 4th line
That says all you need to know.
And if we’re going by playoff numbers why aren’t you sounding the horn for Steckel, or is that the next vote?
Steckel is a great player and proved it on a line with Bradley and Laich, however he doesn’t have the ability to jump to just about any open slot on a line and make a difference.
Steckel is not a great player. He’s a solid NHL player. Laich doesn’t have the ability to jump to “just about any open slot” and make a difference. Unless by difference you mean “worse.” Laich couldn’t replace anyone on the top line. Laich can’t hope to be more than the garbage man on the 2nd line. He’s a 3rd line guy with 2nd line upside. Alzner is a top pair guy with 2nd pair downside.
I cheerlead for Stecks quite a bit, but he ain’t a great player. He was given an opportunity to contribute more and took advantage of it, but that ceiling is pretty close for him.
"The passion of our supporters cannot be contained by clothing."
by Bald Pollack on Aug 5, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Steckel is a great player
This is getting ridiculous.
Nice deflection on the OT winner, but what about the open net he missed in the previous OT?
Steckel is many things – a “great player” is not one of them.
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I’d actually say Laich is more valuable than Talbot. Bradley would be a better comparison for Talbot as Talbot is, at best, a borderline third liner.
Laich does contribute in all facets of the game…and I never implied that he’s less valuable than a Fehr, Flash, Steckel or a Bradley. I’d definitely put him at the top of that list…but that doesn’t change his value to this team…a solid 3rd liner who can move up if needed.
As for leadership….I don’t know what goes on in the locker room, but I think we can agree that his “lead by example” virtue is similar to Clark’s.
That’s a good point, but there’s only so many teams that can legitimately contend for a cup each season.
Look at it this way: Semin could be defined as a second liner here, but in most markets it would be a joke to play him there, including the latest champs. Do you think Pittsburgh would play him on the second line?
Or look at it the other way around. (I assume, someone can correct me) Jordan Staal played third line fairly regularly behind Malkin & Crosby (barring when they played together) – do you think for a moment he’d even be considered a third line player here?
He’d be considered a 2nd line center but the Capitals don’t have the two best centers in the league on their team.
That’s my point – every team is created differently, and every team can win in their own way. Saying Laich is a third liner on a Cup contending team suggests every team is built the same way.
Implying that all Cup contending teams is not what I intended. The point I was trying to make is that there are very few Cup contending teams where Laich would be on the top 2 lines due to his skill set .
That isn’t to say he wouldn’t get some PP time on a second unit or filling in some on a top unit. Nor is it to say he wouldn’t get any time on the PK.
I’m not sure if I buy into the Semin or Staal comparison. A more apt one, IMO, is when Zubrus and Clark were playing on the first line in DC.
Two of the more dominant franchises over the last 20 years have been Detroit and NJ, and their excellence has stretched for long enough that there are only a handful of players who have been around for the entirety of that span. In both cases, there is a “generational” player that ties together their early and later success (Lidstrom and Brodeur, respectively).
However, in both cases, the other common thread is actually somewhat unexpected – “gritty” forwards that can score who are capable of shifting around through various spots in the lineup depending on the needs of the moment. For Detroit I’m thinking of Draper and Maltby, and for NJ, it’s Madden and Pandolfo. (If you want to get old school, I would posit that this was the role that Butch Goring played for the Isles, and sort of the role that Gainey had with the dominant Habs teams of the 70s).
Now, whether you put Laich in that company is somewhat speculative at this point in his career, nevertheless, I think those kinds of players are more valuable than they might seem, precisely because of the roster flexibility they enable.
As would Scotty Bowman and, Jacques Lemaire.
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Stevie Y and Fedorov have missed the last half-decade of Wings excellence.
Yes, Stevens and Niedermayer were damn good, but the Devils didn’t drop off precipitously once they left, either, having won their division 3/4 years since their departure and tallied 99 points or better every year.
To answer below – Bowman and Lemaire had little to do with their later success. If you want to give credit somewhere else, it should go to Lamoriello and Holland – who are the guys who acquired these people in the first place. . .
Absolutely – Holland and Lou Lam deserve credit. But don’t think that just b/c Bowman and Lemaire moved on that their influences left with them.
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NJD Cups without the Scotts: 0
NJD Playoff series wins without the Scotts: 2
DET Cups without Feds/Stevie Y: 1, but they have Hank/Datsyuk
Your assertion that you can cobble a bunch of checkers around one generational talent is simply wrong.
The checkers bring some stability. I don’t know if a team has ever had a (in this order) Cup, roster overhaul, and Cup within, say, 4 years. Doesn’t happen. Those guys understand the system, the team philosophy, and bring prior experience.
by red army line on Aug 5, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Your assertion that you can cobble a bunch of checkers around one generational talent is simply wrong.
That’s a great strawman assertion there. My actual point was that there are common threads through successful teams, and that one of them tends to be flexible forwards who can score as well as play effective defense and take turns at center or play up/down a line. Take your pick on the names: Madden/Pandolfo, Draper/Pronger, Jordan Staal, Rod Brind’Amour, Chris Drury (Avs version), Jere Lehtinen, Esa Tikkanen, Butch Goring, Bob Gainey, etc. etc.
Are they more valuable than top-end talent like Niedermayer or Stevens? Of course not, but we’re not arguing top-3, we’re all the way down to #5/6/7. To put this in the context of the Devils in 2002/3, I’m not arguing that Madden/Pandolfo are better than Niedermayer/Stevens/Elias/Brodeur, but they could certainly be as or more valuable than say, Scott Gomez, Jeff Friesen or Joe Nieuwendyk within the context of that particular team. The original point was:
Guys like Brooks don’t come along very often.
The riposte was:
Laich does not bring that much more to the table than the other 3rd/4th lines
To which I say this: there tend to be guys very similar to Brooks Laich on consistently successful teams. If one of our top-line players goes down, I would feel more comfortable with Brooks filling in for them than any other player on the roster. Although he might not be best-suited to play center, I’d still feel OK if we had to have him fill in for one of our top-2 guys there. He doesn’t have the greatest hands, but I’m still OK if he gets some PP time if/when someone else gets injured. I can’t really say any of those things about any of our other 3rd/4th liners.
As for the Cups arguments, you’re right, they haven’t won any since then, but the problem with that line of reasoning is that dynasties of the kind that we saw from the late 70s through the mid-80s are likely a thing of the past. Sustained excellence (and to me, winning the division 3/4 years with over 100 points and coming in 2nd the one year you lose is pretty goddamn good) is about the best one can hope for, particularly when you consider just how much major roster turnover the Devils have had since 03-04.
Sure, every Cup team needs those gritty versatile forwards. But they also need strong defensemen. Detroit has managed to keep filling in strong defensemen around Lidstrom like Kronwall, Rafalski and Stuart after losing guys like Murphy, Fetisov, Konstantinov and Chelios, and they have been successful. But for all of their regular season success without the Scotts, the Devils have been very unimpressive in the playoffs when it matters since they have been unable to even come close to replacing the Scotts, Rafalski and Daneyko.
Since you need both, the decision of which is more valuable comes down to which is more easily replaced. In my mind it is MUCH harder to replace a bluechip defenseman than it is a gritty 2nd/3rd line forward. For as much as we all love what Laich does for the Caps, do we really thing his game is such a rare commodity in the NHL? It may be less common than a guy like Bradley, but I certainly don’t think it is less common than a guy like Alzner (or Carlson), which is why I would go with the Dman.
by Killer_Carlson on Aug 5, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Roger, but...
The thing is, we’re not talking about an established elite defenseman, we’re talking about the 6th most valuable player in the organization and we’re comparing a valuable jack-of-all-trades forward with a guy who, while talented, is still a prospect. This is akin to asking the Wings in 2002 if they’d trade Draper for Kronwall. Maybe the answer is no, maybe it’s yes, but thought process ought to be different.
My original point wasn’t to suggest that Brooks is more valuable than say, Green, it’s simply to say that versatile forwards who can: play W or C, take faceoffs, block shots, kill penalties, play on the PP, all while chipping in offensively are more valuable than they might seem given their raw stats. The comment thread seemed to be writing him (and his type of player) off as easily replaceable, and I’d argue that there’s a damn good reason that successful teams tend to acquire and hold onto guys like Brooks.
In both cases, there is a "generational" player that ties together their early and later success (Lidstrom and Brodeur, respectively).
However, in both cases, the other common thread is actually somewhat unexpected – "gritty" forwards that can score who are capable of shifting around through various spots in the lineup depending on the needs of the moment.
I didn’t make the straw man, you did. The common thread is that they each had no fewer than 3 generational players. Sure they filled gaps with checkers and role players, but every team does that. Go through the teams that didn’t make the playoffs and you’ll find plenty of checkers. Go through the contenders and you find several elite players, not just one. You can’t ignore the skill on the rosters and go right to Madden and Draper.
Fine, we aren’t talking about the 2 or 3 spots but we are still talking about building a team. You’re telling me that you are going to pass over the elite talent for the guy who, by virtue of being a few years older, has more NHL games but nowhere near the potential? If the Devils or Wings had to choose between an elite prospect and a checking forward I have no doubt who they’d pick; that’s why they are elite franchises. Let’s say you have all the players on Team Canada’s roster and Brooks Laich to build a team from, are you going to pick Laich in the 6 spot just because you already have 2 elite talents? Of course you wouldn’t. You’d pick the elite talent until you ain’t got no more to pick. Go grab a drink D’ohboy, it’s ok to be wrong on occasion.
When did Brooks get demoted to a borderline 3rdth line player? He’s a capable 2nd line \ 3rd line player depending on what position you stick him in and I don’t think he’s reached his full potential yet.
Guys that play his entire game don’t come along that often. There aren’t many Brooks Laichs in the league. He’s the piece.
Guys that play like Bradley are on every team. That’s all my statement meant.
And as far as if he’s more valuable than Alzner, etc, it looks like 88 people, so far, think so.
to me, it’s all about trade value. i would trade brooks laich if the return was karl alzner. i would not trade brooks for osala or neuvirth. GMs have to weigh players’ potentials in every transaction they make.
by Natty Bumppo on Aug 5, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
bill simmons does something similar with his annual “NBA trade value rankings” column.
the rules he uses are as follows:
A quick recap of the rules:
1. Salaries matter. Over this season and the next two, would you rather pay David West $27 million or Amare Stoudemire $43 million?
2. Age matters. Would you rather have Chauncey Billups for the next five seasons or Rajon Rondo for the next 12?
3. Pretend the league passed the following rule: For 24 hours, any player can be traded without cap ramifications but with luxury-tax ramifications. So if Team A tells Team B, “We’ll trade you Player X for Player Y,” would Team B make the deal?
4. Concentrate on degrees. Neither San Antonio nor Orlando would make a Howard-Duncan trade, but the Spurs would at least say, “Wow, Dwight Howard’s available?” and have a meeting about it while the Magic would say, “There’s no frickin’ way we’re trading Dwight Howard.” That counts in the big scheme of things.
5. The list runs in reverse order (Nos. 40 to 1). So if Carmelo comes in at No. 16, players 1 through 15 are all players about whom the Nuggets would probably say, “We hate giving up ’Melo, but we definitely have to consider this deal.” And they wouldn’t trade him straight-up for any player listed between Nos. 17 and 50.
the last one gets to the heart of it. would hate to give up brooks laich. by all accounts he’s positive presence in the locker room, and he has all the on-ice intangibles you’d ever want in a 2nd/3rd-liner. but for an elite prospect like alzner, at his age and with his ceiling…sure.
someone like bourque who projects as a possible future 2nd or 3rd liner, i will not be voting for in front of any NHL regulars.
by Natty Bumppo on Aug 5, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Those are great criteria – probably ones I should’ve used.
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You’ve saved a piece of your soul by not taking direction from that jackhole. Bill Simmons = BS. The initials save you a lot of time.
True, but the criteria are pretty solid.
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simmons is an easy target. he has a few runnings gigs (including the NBA trade value column) that are well thought-out. he’s also a lot more versed in basketball than he is in other sports.
by Natty Bumppo on Aug 5, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Value depends on the team. Alzner is far more valuable to the Capitals than say.. the Red Wings. It’s the same reason Semin is brought up in trade talks – the Caps have their ‘top gun’ in Ovechkin, so Semin’s value is far lower in DC.
any team would love an alzner, especially the wings who are always needing to get younger and will soon be looking to replace a few gaping holes on the blue line. alzner was a top-5 pick for a reason. your argument would also make more sense if brooks laich wasn’t the counterweight. “it’s a matter of degrees,” as bill simmons says in his guidelines.
by Natty Bumppo on Aug 5, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Because Alzner is likely going to be a part of this team’s key core going forward? Because after another year or two it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he becomes our most important defensive Dman? This poll isn’t just about this year.
If Alzner develops as he should, the day isn’t far off when he becomes a more integral part of this lineup than Laich does. Since he’s a pretty safe prospect with upside that’s not that hard to judge, of course he’s going to get votes here. There’s a difference between him and Osala et al. in that regard, it’s in the “bust” potential.
Not to mention the fact that’s he’s already played in the NHL in a big role (even if the mind games did hurt his game eventually), that’s going to give him a lead over the other prospects.
It starts getting ridiculous soon. Here’s my criteria anyway:
How much does the player net us if we were forced to sell, for cash alone? Ovie’s getting paid $9M per but his value to the franchise may be closer to $18M per. His value (taken out 10 years) is enormous. Nyls is getting $4.25 avg over the next two but his value to us is closer to $1.75M per. He has more absolute value than Boyd Gordon, but I’d say he’s the least valuable member of the team – the most negative.
An Alzner or Carlson that could be locked up and underpaid as RFAs for a while probably have more value than a Brooks Laich on a $2M deal … we could replace him more easily.
It has already gotten ridiculous. Laich is a nice guy and he’s paid some dues with the team, but he’s not a franchise caliber player, and he’s by far easier to replace than Alzner. If there were an expansion draft tomorrow, and we could only protect one of these guys, our vote would protect Laich and let some other team poach Alzner. Every team in the league is thanking us and hopes the Japers’ Rink masses somehow get the keys to the Caps franchise because this decision is downright ludicrous. You do not give up a franchise D (aaaaah he’s unproven!) for a third line forward that can potentially fill in on the second line (aaaah but he’s a proven 3rd liner!). Alzner is the most irreplaceable asset on this list, and sadly he’ll still be on the list for vote 7. I’ve issued the challenge before and I will re-issue it: What does Laich bring that Alzner doesn’t? Now, what does Alzner bring that Laich doesn’t?
by Rob Parker on Aug 5, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I say this only half tongue in cheek. Karl projects so high it’s ridiculous, but so did Eric Lindros—not saying they’re even close in terms of mental makeup (the King has that in spades)—but really, he hasn’t done anything yet, other than expose himself as a junior not quite able to make the jump to the bigs in one season.
from the house that Red Jesus built
and lindros proved EXTREMELY valuable to the nordiques. before his concussions, and when lindros was still a prospect, he was one of the more valuable commodities in the league.
/had to be said
by Natty Bumppo on Aug 5, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Indeed – so valuable he helped the Avs win a couple of Cups.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
yeah, that deal even today seems remarkable:
Peter Forsberg, Steve Duchesne, Kerry Huffman, Mike Ricci, Ron Hextall, Philadelphia’s 1st round choice (Jocelyn Thibault) in 1993 Entry Draft, $15,000,000 and future considerations (Chris Simon and Philadelphia’s 1st round choice in 1994 Entry draft, which got dealt to us via TOR and turned into this guy)
Colorado nee Quebec, ftw
from the house that Red Jesus built
I say this only half tongue in cheek. Karl projects so high it’s ridiculous, but so did Eric Lindros
…and through the season of his first concussion Lindros played 360 games and scored 223 goals and 507 points.
Damn, he was a beast. All that scoring made him tired, though, so he was prone to on-ice naps:
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by J.P. on Aug 5, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
by comparison, Ovechkin has played 320 games, 219 goals, 201 assists, 420 points.
Pretty amazing how dominant Lindros was early on.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Aug 5, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I think it’s humorous that since a vote didn’t go the way you wanted to that it is labeled as ridiculous.
I’m not using ridiculous in a totally serious manner. I’ve made piece with the fact that this vote is going for Laich. I still think it makes no sense in a big picture way. There is a reason the U.S. isn’t built on direct democracy.
I think people are putting Varly and Alzner up high because they are first round picks that have franchise potential at their positions and have both performed well in limited NHL duty.
I don’t think Varly requires much explanation – without him the Caps get eliminated in the first round last year (sorry, Theo) and he took them to game 7 vs. Pitt and gave the Caps had many chances to win the series. Alzner is a little more speculative, but he was a 5th overall pick and is the only remaining blue chip prospect in the Caps’ system. Carlson is the only prospect I think we will see get much consideration before getting through a lot of the roster.
I love Laich and Steckel, and both guys are valuable, but they don’t have the trade value that Varly and Alzner do, nor do they have the huge upside that those guys do. Laich is a 2nd line winger, max, Steckel a very good 3rd line center, max.
I agree that Varly and Alzner have more value on the market, but that’s purely because where they are now in terms of skill is about even with Laich. Although both of these guys have played a few games, it’s not nearly long enough for us to get a strong feeling of how their careers will play out.
Their ‘potential’ is what pushes them higher on the market. Whether or not they pan out, well, we won’t know that for 2-3 years.
AO is a generational player. One of a kind. Alzner, (I know, hard to believe) is not. He’s a solid prospect, and I believe he will be great player in time, but he is no Ovechkin.
AO took 2-3 years to show us what he was, he was billed as a generational player but you didn’t know for sure until his first NHL game he proved it over the course of 2 years+. All I’m getting you to admit is that potential has value. Now that you’ve accepted that we can haggle over the rate of exchange. Alzner is billed as a franchise shutdown D but you are discounting it because you haven’t seen it.
I dunno. I think Ovechkin proved from day 1 he was a generational player. He and Sid were the first two rookies to top 100 points since Selane way back when
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
Haha, okay, this conversation is getting tiring.
Alzner has lots and lots of value, great potential, and once he plays a full season (or two half-seasons for that matter) we’ll get a stronger idea of what he really brings to the table.
I hate downplaying Alzner. The first time I saw him in person (probably about 20 feet away (thanks preseason!)) I practically peed myself. Clearly, I like him.
If it makes you feel better, I’d gladly put him on par with Laich in this vote. I have no problem doing so whatsoever. I voted Laich because this is a fun poll and thread to eat up time at work. I didn’t take into account things like who we already voted for (3F, 1D, 1G), or the idea of building a strong L C R, D D, G as some folks have pointed out. If I was considered that, the obvious choice is Alzner.
It has already gotten ridiculous.
Stecks getting more votes than Carlson proves this I think.
"The passion of our supporters cannot be contained by clothing."
Big fan of Carlson here, but you never really know how a player with perform in the NHL until he actually plays. I understand why people may vote that way.
And I of Stecks. But by similar logic, Varlamov wouldn’t be #5 and might not be #6 because he hasn’t put an acceptable level of time in. I’d pick a potential top pair d-man over a pending UFA who will get a significant raise when he leaves any day of the week.
/wonders if the next poll may be better to take up this topic
"The passion of our supporters cannot be contained by clothing."
by Bald Pollack on Aug 5, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Clearly the problem in this poll was too many heavyset American people voting for Brooks (as I finish a cheeseburger).
"The passion of our supporters cannot be contained by clothing."
by Bald Pollack on Aug 5, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Alzner vs. Carlson
One of the primary reasons that Alzner went as high as he did in the draft was because he projected out as one of the most “NHL-ready” defensemen in that year’s class. The consensus was that the upside wasn’t spectacular, but the probability of achieving it was very high. In HF parlance, he’s a 8.0A.
Since that time, he’s had a phenomenal year in Junior, and a first year as a professional that could best be described as pretty good/incomplete. His time with the Caps was a mixed bag – he admitted that his strength wasn’t nearly where it needed to be. He played well in Hershey, but sat out for a while with a concussion.
In the meantime, Carlson has absolutely blown up. He’s already demonstrated greater physical development than Alzner, and when I watched the two of them during the Calder Cup playoffs, he looked to be the better/more developed player. Even as early as last year, much of the Caps staff thought that Carlson was more ready for the NHL than Alzner.
Now, if one of Alzner’s prime attributes is/was his “NHL readiness,” and Carlson has (seemingly) advanced past him on that front, while also displaying greater offensive upside . . . why exactly would one vote for Alzner ahead of Carlson? Especially given the context of the Caps’ current roster, which is heavy on steady(ish) non-scoring defensemen like Alzner, but, after Green, light on guys with legitimate offensive abilities like Carlson?
I’m not saying this position is unequivocally wrong, I’m just curious about others’ thoughts.
For me this is most easily answered by observing that Alzner was a top 5 pick and Carlson was picked at the end of the first round. That’s not a great answer, obviously. After all, Schultz went before Green in the same draft and while Schultz is still developing, it seems highly unlikely that he’ll ever surpass Green in value. To the extent Hockeysfuture knows anything, they also have Alzner’s max at .5 higher and gave them both a B chance of reaching it.
The more detailed answer would be that Alzner has also demonstrated more of the blue chip pedigree thus far at the junior level and did pretty well in a NHL stint so far, whereas we have no idea how Carlson will perform in the NHL (here’s hoping he does well). They both did well in the AHL, but from what I understand it’s not clear who was better.
So, in short, my answer would be that you make a good point but I still think that Alzner has more upside, and the organization is more starved for positional shutdown D than it is for offensively explosive D. But I really hope that if we do this again next year, Carlson is vying for a top 7 spot (and not because other guys become devalued).
Alzner’s not as flashy as Carlson, but he’s better and projects as a much more complete guy defensively.
The thing that might worry me a bit with Carlson is that his upside actually isn’t. I think a big part of his “blowing up” was that he was already very mature physically… so then how much higher can he go? With him it’s a question of how he develops the mental game, and I guess that’s tougher to see.
I’m not trying to be rude (it’s actually a legit question and not a rhetorical put-down in other words), but how much have you watched these guys play at the same level (AHL)? I watched a ton of the Calder Cup both in person and on the ’tubes, and to my eyes, Carlson was the better of the two. Carlson put up some ridiculously gaudy stats in his only year in the CHL, and he was only left off of the US WJC squad out of spite because he chose the OHL over UMass.
When I think “complete” defenseman, part of that is offensive capability (at least since Doug Harvey entered the NHL :)), and I think that Carlson will contribute more offensively while playing almost as well defensively. On the other hand, who the heck knows – the uncertainty inherent in prospects is part of the reason that I misunderstood the purpose of this whole exercise in the first place.
I watched a dozen or so games during the season, and then a few as well in the playoffs.
And I have no doubt Carlson looked better, he’s definitely the flashier player. That doesn’t mean he was better, though, given the types of games the two play. Keep in mind that, during the playoffs, Alzner was coming off a concussion (when he played in the later rounds of course) as well.
Cool
I can definitely see why some would take Alzner over Carlson, it’s not my choice, but de gustibus. . .
However, if “salary matters,” would the fact that Carlson makes about half of what Alzner does affect your choice?
It might make me think, but it wouldn’t change my vote. I really like all the little things Alzner does. Who knows how next season goes, though, and Carlson could show all those things and more to change my vote by then.
And let me be clear that I’m far from down on Carlson. He’s one of my favorite prospects.
Carlson has offensive talent no doubt, but the area he needs work in is his defensive play. We already have a guy that fits that bill. Carlson is not going to supplant Green on the PP so he’s kinda superfluous. Making a good breakout pass isn’t the same as being an elite offensive talent. We need D that can make a breakout pass, we don’t need any more D that are going to score 20 goals. Alzner makes a good first pass. He makes smart decisions with the puck. He makes smart decisions away from the puck. He moves great and he thinks the game great. We don’t have any other D with those traits. He’s the shutdown guy that isn’t in the system yet. I don’t think it’s fair to knock Alzner for not being “NHL ready.” If he wasn’t on a team that is a Cup contender he would have played the full year in the NHL. He probably plays the full season in the NHL if he’s on any other SE team, and even a few playoff teams (PHI comes to mind). He may not have flashy offensive skills but guys with that kind of hockey mind and talent develop offense over time. Lidstrom was nowhere near the player he is now when he was in his 20s and that’s the kind of game Alzner plays. Will he ever be Lidstrom’s caliber? Probably not. But he’s the kind of guy that can eat minutes and is going to continue to get better into his 30s. Carlson may have looked better to you in a small sample size with Alzner coming off the concussion but Alzner has been the Captain of a gold medal winning WJC team, WHL D of the year, and WHL player of the year. I think Alzner fills a role that we need more than Carlson, and that’s what it comes down to. I said it the other day and I’ll just restate it here in case you missed it. Carlson:Semin :: Alzner: Backstrom. We have Green and AO, it’s more important to get the compliment to those guys than to get the poor man’s version of those guys.
We already have a guy that fits that bill. Carlson is not going to supplant Green on the PP so he’s kinda superfluous. Making a good breakout pass isn’t the same as being an elite offensive talent. We need D that can make a breakout pass, we don’t need any more D that are going to score 20 goals.
i know this is on the way to a larger alzner defense, but i don’t see how the presence of green on the PP makes carlson or orlov or any other offensive-minded defenseman superfluous. with the way BB has the caps moving up and down the ice, i’d think his ideal would be three scoring lines and an offensive threat in each of the top two pairings. the caps do have two PP units, after all.
I agree with you, except for the 2PP thing. Our second PP doesn’t play much, but maybe if we had more threats from the point that would change. It would be great to have a puck moving guy on every pair, and you can’t have too much talent on D. Also, I’ve argued (on a few occasions) that our PP should let Green be a rover, and that requires a traditional point guy, which Carlson could be. Carlson is going to be one of my next votes so it’s not a knock on him. It goes back to Mike Green already giving us an elite offensive Dman and Alzner being the best defensive dman we have in the system.
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