Should the Caps trade Alexander Semin?
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 2:55 PM EDT
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When players stay within an organization for some time (especially when they're good too), it feels tough to come to terms with the fact that they've moved. Take, for example, Olie Kolzig. He was in a Capitals uniform since the mid-90s and was the go-to guy in net until the 2008 trade deadline (GM George McPhee traded for Cristobal Huet). But with the salary cap, sometimes it is not possible for teams to hang onto players they may otherwise want to. Alexander Semin may be one such player.
More after the jump.
Alexander Semin was drafted 13th overall in 2002 by Washington. Here are his NHL stats since then:
|
Season |
Team |
League |
GP |
G |
A |
P |
PIM |
+/- |
|
03-04 |
Washington |
NHL |
52 |
10 |
12 |
22 |
36 |
-2 |
|
06-07 |
Washington |
NHL |
77 |
38 |
35 |
73 |
90 |
-7 |
|
07-08 |
Washington |
NHL |
63 |
26 |
16 |
42 |
54 |
-18 |
|
(playoff) |
7 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
8 |
2 |
||
|
08-09 |
Washington |
NHL |
62 |
34 |
45 |
79 |
77 |
25 |
|
(playoff) |
14 |
5 |
9 |
14 |
16 |
-1 |
Why the Caps should keep him:
He's good: Semin overall has been getting better each season. His goals per game projected over 82 games in 2008-2009 comes out to 45 goals, which would've tied him with 3rd that season in goals with Zach Parise, one behind Jeff Carter for 2nd, and his points-per-game average over 82 would've had him 3rd with 105, just ahead of Sidney Crosby. He was arguably the Capitals' best player during their 2008 first-round loss to Philadelphia and their first-round win over the New York Rangers in 2009.
He can be the best: Even more impressive is that Semin's play dropped off when he got injured; before he got hurt, he was the league leader in goals, points, and plus-minus, and for most of that time he was playing on a line with Sergei Fedorov as his center. His 13 goals project out to 67 over 82 games, his 27 points to 138, and his +20 to 103. He probably cannot play that same way over an entire season, even if he stayed injury-free, but nevertheless the sky clearly is the limit with Semin, especially if he's used on the PK.
Playoff monster: Semin's puck control skills, terrific release, and Datsyuk-ian takeaway style are invaluable in a playoff series. He was arguably the Caps' best and most consistent player in the 2008 playoffs and the 2009 first round. He also led the NHL in playoff goals and points through one round. When the games are most important, Semin shines.
Secondary scoring: He is good friends with Alex Ovechkin and only Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are better than the Caps' duo down the left wing if Semin is playing well. The fact that they normally play on different lines also poses problems for opposing teams, as they have to contend with two threats. Detroit handled Crosby but could not handle Malkin in the 2009 Stanley Cup Finals, a major reason why the Penguins prevailed.
He is also a human drumming-literally-machine.
Why the Caps shouldn't keep him:
Penalties: Semin takes the ill-advised restraining foul all too often. One of the most blatant examples of this was his dive for the puck that ended up tripping Daniel Alfredsson in the 3rd period of a 2-2 hockey game against the Senators on January 20, 2009 (Ottawa scored on the resulting power play to win the game). And we all know that for some reason bad penalties cost your team (or seem to) more often than they should.
Injuries: Semin gets injured. He missed 19 games in 07-08 and 20 more in 08-09. What's more, he got injured in the 2009 postseason. It's very likely that if he was 100% for the Caps' second-round series against Pittsburgh that a different team would have been hoisting hockey's holy grail in June. And he's never as good after the injury as he was before
Salary: Semin also could cost a lot of money, and with the salary cap going down, it may be more important for the team to look, say, for a center to replace Brendan Morrison (or re-sign him) and be the "bridge" to Anton Gustaffson or Marcus Johansson (although I hope this player will be more effective than the last player George McPhee signed to fulfill such a role).
The Capitals have 10 NHLers (as of 2009 postseason) locked up for 2010-2011 at about $30 million. With early estimates seeing the salary cap drop $5 million, I'm setting the salary cap at $51 million. I've played the role of George McPhee and re-signed some players for that season too, outlined below.
Nicklas Backstrom: $6 million
Brendan Morrison: $2 million
Eric Fehr: $750,000
Tomas Fleischmann: $2 million
Boyd Gordon: $800,000
Jeff Schultz: $1 million
Chris Bourque: $700,000
Tyler Sloan: $700,000
Additions to the NHL roster:
Karl Alzner: $1.675 million
John Carlson: $850,000 (rounded)
Salary total: $46.475
Keep in mind Semin in this scenario is still unsigned with roughly $4.5 million in cap room.
Center is more important: As a final point: The 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins did not have a superstar 1-2 punch at wing. The 2008 Detroit Red Wings did not. The 2007 Anaheim Ducks did not, nor did the 2006 Carolina Hurricanes. But all these championship-winning squads were solid down the middle. Crosby, Malkin, and Jordan Staal for the Pens is one obvious example. We see the same pattern with other "contenders."
For more, check out Pepper's Rink Wrap from this past year on Semin.
Should the Caps keep Alex Semin, and for how long? (note poll question is different from title)
If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.
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I think if he gets hurt for a long time again, send him somewhere at the deadline for prospects, picks, or maybe a solid center like Marc Savard who will play well until Gustaffson or Johansson is ready.. But if he stays healthy, I say he’s worth the risk, unless another team offers him a “suitable” contract " (i.e. Caps get 4 1st rounders).
I’d be extremely careful moving Semin if, in the end, the Caps simply can’t offer him the money he’s worth. They’d also have to be prepared to counter him should he return to Verizon in a different sweater, easier said than done!
It would take another season of horrible injury luck to convince me that his skills will deteriorate quickly enough to make shipping him out a real choice. Other than that, I think the Caps HAVE to pony up some cash to keep him even if it means shedding salary elsewhere. Speaking of which… this could be the reason the Caps finally buy Nyls out after this season (some money would be lost, but not 92’s entire yearly salary that could help to pay for 19/28’s well-earned raises).
Nylander will not be bought out, bank on that. Better to waive him and pay him an extra 1 mil than to deal with the 3+ mil of empty cap hit the buyout would cause next season.
His NMC clause will expire after next year, right?
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
First of all, nice work.
I think the problem with the question, though, is that it’s impossible to know the variables surrounding “keep him” (how much will it cost?) and “trade him” (what would the Caps get back?). I’m sure that every single one of us would love to lock him up to a 6-year/$6-million deal, and we’d all gladly trade him in a package for Duncan Keith, Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. But neither of those scenarios is going to happen, so the “keep him/dump him” question is a tough one to consider.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Aug 4, 2009 3:08 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I was thinking more along the lines of a decent center and some depth players or picks. The salary in my mind is the main issue.
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Semin will be asking for no less than $5 million, and I don’t know if it’s worth it to keep him and lose, say, David Steckel.
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Steckel? Really? He’s great and all, but he doesn’t touch Semin in terms of impact, even adjusting for roles.
5 mil for a player like Semin would be a steal, as long as you’re not giving him extremely unfavorable terms (whatever those would end up being) otherwise.
Well, Steckel and depth, maybe a solid defensive D-man.
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
The issue I have there is, we’d have to be incredibly lucky for any of those future players to have the type of impact Semin already does (outside a few key examples, and those guys aren’t likely going to become cap casualties even if Semin is kept).
At some point you can move Semin out because he’s too expensive, and replace from within, but you don’t clear up cap space just so you can keep guys who might oneday have the same impact.
In the PIT series and the SCF it was secondary scoring that won the series, not primary scoring. We didn’t get anything from Semin. DET didn’t get anything from Hossa or Datsyuk. At least if you spread out the scoring if someone’s hurt your entire offense implodes. I’d prefer a second line of 50-60 point guys all across the board than Semin (considering one or two will be on entry level deals). The injuries are obviously a major factor.
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s fine, scoring depth never hurts. But you can’t rely on “future draft picks” to have nearly the impact Semin does. You’re not going to find someone better cheaper, not where we’ll be drafting.
Losing Semin is a downgrade in secondary scoring. There’s probably no way around that issue. And that’s ok if it lets you bring in more reliable players or lets you bolster other areas. But you’ll still be losing offense most likely, at least if you’re spending the same amount. And that of course goes for the playoffs as well, where Semin is still our best/2nd best player.
I was thinking that the top picks will come cheaper at least for 3 years on entry level deals, and in the meantime use guys like Flash and Laich or cheap vets like BMo instead. Semin missed 19 games in 07-08, including some time under Boudreau. The Caps were on pace for 108 points. They matched that with Semin in 08-09.
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
At some point, you have to go all-in (or close to it) and try to win. The future can’t be put off forever.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
The trouble is I didn’t see an improvement from 07-08 to 08-09 except in terms of how long the season was (not longer by much). It could’ve been longer, but you can’t win if the focal point of your secondary scoring is always playing hurt and good enough when hurt to help the team advance. The playoff runs will always end early if Semin’s injured. Better value would be some players who aren’t hurt by the 2nd round and can produce reliably.
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
So his health in the near future is critical IMO
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
They’re cheaper, but not nearly as high impact. That’s the rub. If they have the same impact as Semin, they’ll cost more (you’re not going to get that impact off an ELC for a guy that’s not a top-5 or whatever pick).
But combined? And if one gets hurt, you don’t lose all that production like we do now
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, who else are you replacing? Semin is only one roster spot, you can’t replace him with 2 50 point guys unless you’re getting rid of another player that’s probably, what, 40+ already? (thinking of guys like Flash or Laich, or hopefully at that point AnGus or Perreault).
Morrison is on a 1 year deal, so I can see him replaced. The opening also gives guys like Flash, Fehr, Laich, Bourque, etc, more playing time.
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s not what I meant.
If Semin’s on the 2nd line, who do you see him with? I’m guessing something like Laich/Flash and Perreault/AnGus/Laich/cheap-ish scoring center.
And then, what do you see them producing? I would think the other winger should be a 50 point guy, no? And the center, what, a 40+ point guy?
Then, at that point, if you’re replacing Semin with 2 50-60 point guys, what kind of impact are you having? You’d still have to get rid of one of the other players, which means you’re not replacing all the offense and still losing the game-breaking aspect.
I reasoned like this:
You replace Semin with someone worse, but not that much worse.
You have the center be a better than before.
You have the other winger be a better than before.
Obviously what I wrote was ill-thought out. But no need to have arguably 5 game breakers on the same team. I’d rather have his (since he’s the lesser winger) production be spread out, to play it safe. I don’t want the team to be screwed every time he gets hurt like NYR will when Gaborik gets injured.
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think a Semin deal could cost you Steckel. If there’s an “either/or” it could be Backstrom or Semin.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Misphrased that. Meant Steckel + depth players + future draft picks. Semin could fetch a 1st rounder or two or four. With GMGM’s success early on in the draft, that’ll keep the talent rolling in.
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Alzner’s not going to get paid that much that soon. Carlson would have to really impress, in which case he’d be more valuable than Semin most likely.
Maybe. It’s hard to know how much Alzner will get paid this early but I don’t think he’s going to get Jeff Schultz money following his ELC.
Agreed, but he’s not going to get Green money either. I’m thinking Mo money (hahaha), give or take, is in store for his second contract. He’s not going to get the chance to produce enough offense to drive his price up so early I think.
I think he could easily get 3 mill on his second contract, and with AO making 9+, Backstrom making ~6, Green making at least 5.25, and Semin making over 5.5 I think the Caps may not be able to afford even that. Throw in they have to lock up either Neuvirth or Varlamov, and they have Carlson to resign and there are going to be some tough decisions for GMGM.
Good problems to have…
I do believe it’s manageable. The near-term crunch is worse than the future. Backstrom and Semin could be tied up with fair market value long term contracts and while it’s tight next year, it’s not necessarily so tight after. Poti, Clark, Nylander, Theo, Pothier — all of the multi-million dollar contracts on the team other than the young guns and Green — will be expiring.
by Gould Old Days on Aug 4, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Same with the Varly love from non-Caps followers. That’s what one strong postseason will do for ya.
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m sure that every single one of us would love to lock him up to a 6-year/$6-million deal, and we’d all gladly trade him in a package for Duncan Keith, Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane.
Ooh boy, talk about salary cap hell…
Maybe not the best example, but you get my point.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
And Chicago, please accept our bonus present to you: Michael Nylander
by Gould Old Days on Aug 4, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
In that case no need for BMo, ShaMo, Juice, and Gustaffson.
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
so the "keep him/dump him" question is a tough one to consider.
That’s what I was considering and why I wrote this. I didn’t want a lopsided poll, although it’s turning out to be one.
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Depends entirely on how much he’s going to cost. If you can afford to keep him, you do it (I don’t know what budget GMGM has in mind, but if you can get him and Backstrom for, say, 11 mil for example you do it no questions asked I think).
If you trade him, don’t do it at the deadline. If you can figure out that you must do it before this season ends, do it. If it takes until midseason to figure it out, wait until after the season’s over. My reasoning is this: Buyers won’t give us what we should be looking for, sellers aren’t going to give us the best deal since they won’t need him for a playoff run. Boston isn’t going to trade with one of their biggest (presumably) Eastern competitors, and if they can’t afford to keep Savard they likely can’t afford to keep Semin.
If we’re trading him it needs to be for a solid ready-to-contribute piece (I’d love a stud Dman, in the vein of Suter perhaps, although I don’t know if Nashville specifically is a realistic target). That’s not something you’re likely getting in a deadline deal.
Semin is a game breaker, and it’s worth seeing if he can find his consistency. He’s our 2nd best two-way player, our 2nd best passer (if not our best), our best “sniper” (skillwise). If he ever bumps up the durability a bit, and dials down the HHS penalties a smidge, he’s the kind of guy you’d kick yourself for letting go too easily. If you can afford to keep him, you keep him.
Backstrom is more important, so moneywise that’s where the priority needs to be. But Semin isn’t someone you can let go of lightly.
(I’d love a stud Dman, in the vein of Suter perhaps, although I don’t know if Nashville specifically is a realistic target)
NAS actually makes a lot of sense. They have tons of defensive depth in the organization and very little offensive depth. Having AO makes Semin a luxury for us; having Weber makes Suter a luxury for NAS. I don’t think it will ever happen but it does make sense if you were looking for trade partners.
I don’t know if they make sense because I don’t know if Poile is going to give up that kind of player for an offensive guy like Semin, and I don’t know how comfortable he’d be with another Russian.
But yes, NAS seems like a very logical place if we’re looking for a solid young Dman.
The Russian thing applies to all teams; yeah NAS got burned but Semin isn’t on his ELC so the financial incentive to go to the KHL isn’t as great. If he thought that Semin only wants to play for the Caps then maybe he’d be gunshy but I don’t think there is any evidence to suggest that Semin would do that.
Dammit, I’m having serious reading comprehension problems this week. I voted “No” and was shocked to see how many people voted “Yes.” Only then did I notice that the poll question is different than the fanpost headline.
Count me as a “Yes” meaning “No we shouldn’t trade him” meaning “Yes we should keep him” instead of my current vote.
My fault. And I’ve been doing it all week around here.
by Gould Old Days on Aug 4, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I put a note at the end. I only made 1 more blatant mistake than Backstrom averages a game
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
no, sorry, my post was pretty uncalled for. I’m going to blame it on the fact that I have a problem poster on my board who is causing me endless grief, and I bouncing between the sanity that is the Rink, and the insanity that is drama queen gymnastics fans. Unsurprisingly (to me, anyways), my difficult post’s name is Penguin. I’m slightly spastic and prone to saying things I probably shouldn’t be saying.
Well, yes. And on the other hand, I think of all the times I’ve yelled “Sasha, you idiot, I swear to God—” at the TV screen, and realize I won’t be crying in my beer if we do trade him away.
by CapitalCentre on Aug 5, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
My only argument here is that Flash won’t get $2M unless he plays out of his mind this season. For that reason I believe we have more cap space then given.
I don’t know, but I felt like a guy who can realistically hope for 30 goals, 60 points, should deserve at least around league average
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Plus it only makes sense to consider a ‘worse case scenario’ when you’re building something like this because otherwise you get people coming in criticizing you of being unrealistic and naive.
Consider it also making up for other players who will earn above what I projected, especially Backstrom and Gordon. I thought I might’ve low-balled those a little
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Does Ovi’s state of mind factor here at all? He’s pretty good buddies with Semin. And at least to the Russian media, he was fairly clear that he would miss Feds/Kozlov. But obviously, he was asked that question a lot and prolly had to answer the proper “Russian” way.
I remember we never heard from Brady Anderson again when Cal retired…
IS PAЯTY NOW
I don’t think so, but Semin’s might. He doesn’t get a go-to role, but still has freedom against somewhat tough competition and is heavily depended on.
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Does Ovi’s state of mind factor here at all?
I’ve thought about this some, but I think (hope?) it’s more likely us fans creating a “worst nightmare” kind of scenario in our minds. One in which Ovie’s commitment to the team wavers because his closest buddies either get traded or don’t get re-signed. I don’t think Feds/Koz, on a personal level, meant nearly as much to Ovie as Semin does. They were “big brother” types, whereas Semin seems to be the “blood brother, best friend” type.
It just seems that Ovi’s been sorta highlighting TOA (The Other Alex) at his party and at the other social events he’s been attending in Moscow. (BTW kudos again to Alex Ovetjkin for keeping us updated on butterfly Ovi’s social calendar!) Even to the point they seem to be sharing clothes(!).
That’s of course before you take into account Ovi must at some point start feeling the pressure of his fame and fortune, and needs to keep familiar people near and the sharks/lampreys at least at arm’s length.
IS PAЯTY NOW
Ovie’s feelings factor in for me, as does my hunch that Semin will take slightly less for a long-term deal to keep him in DC with Ovie. They are like brothers, remember?
I think Semin will take less than $6m/year for a long-term deal in DC, and I think you have to sign him to that. He is too good to let go, and is the difference between the Caps being an offensive powerhouse and merely average.
Implying that losing Semin would impact AO’s mindset/play on the ice calls AO’s professionalism into question. I don’t think AO has ever been anything but professional in the way he’s dealt with the team and gone about his business (being the best hockey player on earth). AO doesn’t deserved to be questioned like that, he can handle it.
Well, he took a hit when Zubrus was dealt, but at the same time that probably had more to do with losing our best center.
On the one hand he’s older and more experienced, he should be able to handle it. On the other hand chemistry is chemistry, and even though they don’t play together all that consistently it would have an impact, if only a small one.
He may have been sad when Zubrus left, as Zubrus was his mentor and really helped him adjust to America and the NHL. How’d AO’s numbers look after Zubrus left? Yeah, I think he moved on alright.
That year he stopped playing D after Zubrus left. There are other factors involved too, but check out his +/-…
by Gould Old Days on Aug 4, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions
How do you feel about her nail polish?
by Rob Parker on Aug 4, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well, he took a hit when Zubrus was dealt
Just saying, yeah, he took a hit when Zubrus was dealt. He kept scoring goals, but his effort lapsed. It was a shitty end to a shitty year, but if you’re defending his professionalism, that definitely did happen. I have no reason to believe it’ll ever happen again, but Ovechkin is capable of mailing it in. We’ve watched him do it.
Of course, when Ovechkin mails it in, he still outscores pretty much everyone in the league.
by Gould Old Days on Aug 4, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Backstrom? Kozlov? It’s not as if he’d mope forever, but moving Zubrus had a measureable impact on his effectiveness as a player (although obviously that’d be expected since we didn’t have another NHL-calibre scoring center).
He scored 11 of his 46 goals after Zubrus left; meaning he scored just under a quarter of his goals in just under a quarter of his games. His pace was pretty constant. I’m not sure where people are seeing his drop off post-Zubrus.
Memory, which has a habit of being faulty
by Gould Old Days on Aug 4, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
i think that had more to do with being paired up with Novotny or some other scrub once Zubie left.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Aug 5, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
my only point being that Ovechkin went from having little help, to having no help and playing on a team going nowhere so its understandable that a player in his second year would lose a little fire in the final weeks of that particular season. It seemed pretty hopeless at that point.
I don’t think we’d see the same result if we had to trade Semin. I think Ovechkin would be sad, but he’d still have Green, Backstrom etc around him so I wouldn’t expect the same dip in production.
That being said, I hope we manage to keep Semin around.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Aug 5, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Really good first fanpost.
I definitely agree that it’s time to move him. Ideally, send him to Toronto.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
by PPP on Aug 4, 2009 4:12 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
No problem at all — I think we can work something out. When does Luke Schenn arrive in DC?
by Gould Old Days on Aug 4, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I think 10 1st rounders is the only way anyone touches Schenn
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
J.P., DMG, and Pepper set the bar really high.
by red army line on Aug 4, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
not sure if the Rabbit fits the new pugnacious Leafs, but just for fun, whom (and/or what) would you realistically return?
from the house that Red Jesus built
yup. add one of those youngsters at the pivot (Stajan or Grabovski) and I would listen closely. (Though it would never happen on Burke’s watch—Semin would drive him nuts.)
from the house that Red Jesus built
Imagine Ron Wilson lecturing Semin or some random thing………you’re laughing like a madman. aren’t you?
Unless you’re OK with only having one sniper worth the salary on the team, you can’t let Semin go. How long will it likely be before the Capitals are drafting a Top 5 draft pick to get a more durable, disciplined “Semin v 2.0”? With that in mind, the only way GMGM could recover from this loss is to develop a similar talent out of thin air practically (how could so many other teams miss on such a quality of a prospect) or someone makes a supremely bone-headed trade to give us one (equally as unlikely). Don’t yank a diamond from the rough and toss it aside because it’s not big and shiny enough… : ]
Regardless of what happens with Semin a team with AO, Backstrom, Green, et. al. will never be picking top 5 (unless the team is ravaged by injuries which is an ever-present caveat that hangs over the team with or without Semin).
Bingo. Don’t let an asset go that may not be replaced until AO’s retired ( gulp ) and the team goes through another Fire Sale. I can’t see making a deal involving Semin unless we get back a future HOF-er and then why would the other club be giving that player up in the first place?
the other scenario in which the Caps earn a top 5 pick is trading a known asset that they can no longer afford to a team with a lottery pick. The lottery pick team gets instant bang for their buck, and the Caps get a top 5 pick that they can take a year or two developing.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Aug 5, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, this is another possibility. What isn’t a possibility is AO/Backstrom/Green playing a full healthy season and the Caps ending up in lottery territory.
agreed
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Aug 5, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess I was thinking about a team like the Flyers, who had a terrible season and the 2nd overall pick in 2007 but were looking to quickly turn things around via free agency while using the young players they already had NHL ready. Trading that 2nd overall could have gotten them a pending RFA and might have prevented them from going after an older player like Briere.
A player like Alex Semin would command more than just a 2nd overall, I would think anyway.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Aug 5, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s okay if there are two good centers on the team. I was looking at PIT example specifically.
by red army line on Aug 5, 2009 4:57 AM EDT up reply actions
But we’re never going to get a center situation anywhere remotely close to PIT’s. The only way we can come close to the 1-2 punch of PIT on offense (if that’s what you want to do) is to keep Semin.
I’m not so sure we’ll “never” get there: we have to get there. The question is how to do it afffordably.
from the house that Red Jesus built
Two “generational” talents at center? Statistically the chances of us drafting high enough and at the right time in history to get two centers of that value is probably low enough that “never” isn’t all that far off.
Can we become solid at center (say, Boston-level, or even Philly-level)? Most definitely. But not “two-franchise-centers.”
Right. Our 7 gamer with them, even with our deficiencies at center after Backstrom, prove you don’t even need generational talent to stack up with Crosby and Malkin, simply effective talent. What I was referring to is our LT need at the pivot organizationally. We are no better than fourth or fifth in the conference with the talent we have there now and that simply has to improve.
from the house that Red Jesus built
That’s fine. My only point is that the Pens aren’t an example of what we should try to be at center, because we’ll never be that (certainly not with Ovie here). We could, however, end up being similar to the Bruins, or even the Flyers.
My big problem with your analysis is the power play.
If I understand you you’d like to trade Semin (let’s call him a 90 pt player) and replace someone else on the second line (let’s say 40 pt player, a total of 130 pts). And you’d like to change that 130 pts into two 65 pt players. Maybe the numbers are slightly different but that’s what I hear.
The problem is you can only play one of those 65 pt guys on the power play at one time. The power play isn’t when you need balanced scoring (2-3 lines worth), it’s when you need the maximally skilled guys you can get. We’re at the very top in the league because we can put the four young guns (plus someone else) all on the ice together. You take Semin off and we aren’t a 25% success rate – Ovi, Green, and Backstrom would all see their PP stats go down. So you can’t just sub in an equal number of points, but somehow distribute them better. You hurt us when we do the most damage (PP).
And I also don’t think you can just claim he’ll only be a 60 game/year guy, or always be hurt in the playoffs. You just don’t have the sample size, unless you know something about the types of injuries he’s taking. And if really was just that he was worn down consistently then he’s good enough that you give him time off in Feb/March and we take the 10 pt hit in the standings.
That’s the big thing. Semin’s playoff injury wasn’t an “injury prone guy” injury, it was a thumb that was broken on a dirty play by Orpik. The only way you can “blame” Semin for being prone to that type of injury is by pointing to his chippyness, if that’s what you want to call it.
Yeah but his back injury v. STL is pretty suspect. At some point when a guy is constantly getting dinged up and you watch AO play through the stuff he plays through you have to wonder. I’m not saying I’m there yet, but some guys really are just more fragile and it bears watching.
Yeah, but that’s not germane to the issue of the playoffs. Sitting out the middle of the season isn’t the big issue here
No it’s not, but repeated injuries are germane. You can’t control when a guy gets hurt, and guys that get hurt frequently are more likely to be hurt in the playoffs.
Yeah, but if the suggestion is that he takes the injuries too hard or doesn’t play through the pain, it certainly matters when we’re accusing him of doing so.
Not that I mean you’re accusing him of such, but obviously some do.
There’s a big difference between not playing through the pain in November and not playing through the pain in April, and there’s nothing to suggest Semin has an issue with the latter (if you think, as I do, that there’s no way to “play through the pain” of a broken thumb when your hands constitute almost your entire game).
I agree, a broken thumb is a death knell for his game. And I agree that pain in Nov. and April are entirely different; IIRC AS said he wouldn’t have played through the thumb injury if it was the regular season. I’m not really questioning his willingness to play through the pain, just the troubling frequency of the injuries. At some point when Havlat and Gaborik keep getting injured it’s hard to ignore it and just chalk it up to bad luck. I really hope that AS isn’t on the same path but I think it’s at least a possibility that we should consider.
If I understand you you’d like to trade Semin (let’s call him a 90 pt player) and replace someone else on the second line (let’s say 40 pt player, a total of 130 pts). And you’d like to change that 130 pts into two 65 pt players.
There’s no reason you have to replace the 40 pt second line player (and if he’s a 40 pt guy he really isn’t a 2nd line player, but that’s not the point). You can keep your 40 pt second line guy and lose a 5-10 point fourth line guy, add the two 65 point guys, and come out ahead.
As far as the PP, you don’t know that Backstrom, AO, and Green would have their production go down without Semin. It’s easy to speculate but you aren’t thinking about what comes back. Our PP never failed because it didn’t have enough skill, it failed (using the term fail very loosely, as it was obviously very successful) when it relied too heavily on skill. Maybe taking Semin off the PP puts Knuble/Laich/Osala (in the future) on the PP more and creates more garbage goals. How much more finesse do we need with AO/Green/Backstrom on the ice?
But pushing guys down the depth chart is going to hurt their offense. Your 40 point 2nd liner gets pushed to the 3rd line, he’s not going to get 40 points anymore.
But if you have 2nd line talent playing on the 3rd line and 3rd line talent playing on the 4th line then your team is better. Ask DMG about his theory regarding defensive slotting.
That’s fine. There’s still only so much icetime, there’s still only so much offense to go around.
Your depth may be better, but you’ve hurt your 2nd line’s effectiveness. Depends on the other facets they bring, as you note.
That’s a fair point. Ultimately I come down with J.P.; it’s impossible to make a decision about whether to keep AS or not if we don’t know what the return is. I’m just saying that it’s very possible that our team could be better by moving him even if we don’t get comparable talent back.
Oh, no doubt. The key is just to focusing on the right type of player. We won’t replace his offense, at least not in the same “game-changer” package, but you could significantly bolster the D (for example) if you had to make a move and the team wouldn’t be any worse off.
Another thing that maybe would clarify this in a big way is how Flash plays. I tend to think of him as insurance for AS; if he can become a 30 goal guy, and stay cheap(ish), well then being forced to trade Semin doesn’t look quite as dire.
yes i know, but your 40 pt (on the 2nd line) guy loses some production and ice time when he goes down. in any event the question is how much better are they than a baseline nhl player, one you can get for free.
PP – look at the league leaders and who they can put out. i’m not denying that the system is important, but high level skill is the important thing.
Skill is obviously important, but with Green/AO/Backstrom there will be few teams that can match that skill unless we put grinders in the other two spots. Thomas Holmstrom is never going to be classified as a skill guy but he’s a huge cog in the DET PP.
in any event the question is how much better are they than a baseline nhl player, one you can get for free.
I’m not sure what you’re getting at here. No player is free; you have to pay them all. The question is whether your two mid-level offensive talents bring more to the team (scoring, defense, intangibles) or whether Semin and the 4th line roster spot bring more to the team. I think it’s at least plausible that two mid-level offensive talents could be more valuable to the team.
Maybe if I stated it as a question – How many points would Matt Bradley get on Ovi’s line? On the 2nd line? How many centers has Jaromir Jagr made rich?
The whole 4th line is nearly free, and I’m not talking about salary – they could be replaced with minimal impact by guys we have in Hershey or healthy scratches. Keith Aucoin or Chris Bourque could be given 2nd line minutes and score 40 points. That’s OUR baseline NHL player, some other teams have different.
I figure we’re not going to agree on the PP issue, and yes it’s especially arguable with no specific trade to ponder.
I’d also like to see two units consistently out there and two defensemen on one of them, somewhat similar to SJS’s approach with Vlasic.
by red army line on Aug 5, 2009 4:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Great Fanpost.
FWIW, last January we all discussed this topic (albeit in a slightly different context) and as many voters thought it equally likely that Semin would get 6M+ for his next contract as he would go back to the KHL. A slight majority of that poll agreed that Semin should be traded if the cap hit on his new contract was more that 5.5M per year.
I agreed with the 5.5M limit back then and agree with that now. Semin is crazy good but until he shows he can stay healthy for an entire season (or close thereto) he is not worth a cap hit of more than 5.5M.
http://www.japersrink.com/2009/1/13/719266/semin-s-next-contract
As an aside
Can someone tell me how to embed that link within the text of the post rather than having it hang out there like that?
When you write a comment, look at the buttons above the text field. B, I, S, " — the next one is a chain followed by a tree. Use the chain (it’s supposed to be a “link”)
by Gould Old Days on Aug 4, 2009 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I view it a few ways...
1. Most unlikely, If the hockey gods shine down upon us and we win the Cup this year with a healthy Semin, we can let him go cause…well, we won the cup, time to shed cap room and restock the lower levels.
2. We miss the SC but Semin has a great year and plays 75-82 games. This is going to be a tough situation, as we can still offer him a contract that he might accept to stay here but other teams can put an offer for him and likely out bid us because of our cap situation.
3. We miss the SC and Semin has a decent year for his games played, as he always does. However, playing only 50 games including playoffs. This may be the best situation for the caps overall. Gives us some time to remind him that he’s not putting as much effort into the team’s success as other players. We extend him by 1-2 years for at or less than what he’s getting right now. Gives us the ability to walk away when he’s UFA if he doesn’t turn the durability around.
Honestly, I think the only way we keep Semin is if we’re able to extend him before the season is over. As an RFA, there’s going to be a ton of teams who will want him and it won’t be hard to out-bid the Caps next year.
Question. Circles’ salary next year is 3M. If we trade him to another team NEXT year, is his cap hit to that team 3M or 4.8?
One other little addition…
Trading Semin for a 2nd line C (Savard has been mentioned) may be a decent idea, but you still have to replace Semin’s productiveness. Will Savard make Flash or Giroux or Osala that much better?
Let me put it in a different light. Say we somehow find a way to trade Semin’s 5M RFA to Boston at the deadline for Savard’s 5M UFA (Bad idea… I’d rather hold Semin and get picks when someone else outbids us).
Which line do we think will produce more effectively: Semin/Mo/Laich or Flash/Savard/Laich ?
How much better will our PP be now that BB has an excuse to put Flash back on the top PP unit (reason I feel we lost the Pens series)?
Let me put it in a different light. Say we somehow find a way to trade Semin’s 5M RFA to Boston at the deadline for Savard’s 5M UFA (Bad idea… I’d rather hold Semin and get picks when someone else outbids us).
It will be nice to keep Semin long term at a discount price. But the question here is “Do we want to trade Semin away for NHL-ready player(s) or do we want to keep him then lose him for a 1st round draft pick (at his price range, we’ll probably get multiple 1st round picks)?”
Nyls’ cap hit would be 4.875 still
As for the offer sheet, I don’t know how likely Semin would be to sign one. He’s said before he doesn’t like change, and he doesn’t sound like he wants to leave. It seems like he might be better off just going to arbitration, but tough to guess what he’d be thinking.
Regardless I don’t think it gets to that point. If he isn’t signed by then it probably means we can’t afford him, in which case it seems like trading him makes more sense (get a player or three that’ll help now, rather than a few picks that may or may not ever have an impact).
A question for the Peanut Gallery… if Semin were to go through arbitration thus far in his career, what would be the number Mr. Arbitrator would spit out (“42”)? Had I not been paying attention, I wouldn’t have known that this number depends somewhat on the comparables that year that he’d be compared to. Is there anyone in this year’s process that has similar production to Semin? (My guess is no, but that’s a WAG). If there are, please share the goods on who would map similar to Semin’s output and what they recieved/can expect to receive?
I personally hope it never comes down to this, but forewarned is forearmed right?
by war_capitals on Aug 5, 2009 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions
I would move Semin straight up for Ilya Kovalchuk. The Thrashers probably wouldn’t,but I would. If you have to move Semin, move him for the one guy that Ovie is even tighter with. If you don’t get another scoring threat to replace Semin when you move him, there is not enough secondary scoring among the other players to keep other teams from focusing on Ovechkin. The “Semin for stud-defenseman” scenario is enticing, but there just is a huge downside, because so few other guys on the current roster are natural goal scorers.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
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53 | 25 | 17 | 11 | 61 |
|
Washington
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54 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
56 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 58 |
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Tampa Bay
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53 | 23 | 24 | 6 | 52 |
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Carolina
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55 | 20 | 25 | 10 | 50 |
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