Ranking the Capitals: #16
by J.P. on Aug 17, 2009 4:35 PM EDT
72 comments
In an effort to beat the summer doldrums, we're undertaking to rank - with your help - the Washington Capitals, from Ovechkin to, well, we'll see. The criteria is simple: who at this moment is the most valuable player in the organization who hasn't already been ranked? Put another way, if you could only keep one of the remaining players - because of what he brings on the ice or off it, his upside, what he could fetch in trade, and so on - who would it be? Consider age, potential, contract status, organizational depth, etc. - it's your call. And after you vote and defend your selection in the comments, help us out and suggest a name to add to the next poll. [Note: previous "Ranking the Capitals" posts can be found here."]
Welcome Michal Neuvirth to the list, and Oskar Osala to the poll...
If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's authors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.
0 recs |
72 comments
Email
Print
Comments
Osala makes it onto the list. I approve! He and Chris seem like the two most valuable guys in Hershey at the moment other than Neuvy, imho.
Winterion Game Studios
Visit us online at : http://winterion.com
by winterion on Aug 17, 2009 4:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was torn between Osala and Fehr. The other 8 guys on that list are pretty easily replaceable (and most of them can be replaced for cheaper). I went with Osala because he hasn’t had surgery on his back/hip and both shoulders. At this point I think Osala is a better bet to become what Fehr was supposed to be than Fehr is. We don’t have any long term garbage goal scorers in the organization other than these two guys, so one of them panning out saves us from having to go overpay for one of those guys on the FA or trade market. If there were a viable long term 2C on that list I might vote for them over Osala.
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 17, 2009 4:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I had a similar dilemma but went with Fehr instead – just haven’t seen/heard enough about Osala yet to put him above Fehr, and I think Fehr probably has more trade value. I would probably rank it Fehr, Mo, Osala, but really I think you could make an argument for anyone on the list at this point.
by grapejoos on Aug 17, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm. This is a tricky riddle. The Renaissance was a more rugged and pugilistic time, so maybe you’re going with Erskine. But the environment was in better shape back then, so maybe it’s Bradley. Then again, if you get locked in the stockades you need someone to watch your ass, and Boyd Gordon’s the best defensive player on that list. I’ll crack this picture clue yet…
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 17, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
(Renaissance) Fair = Fehr? That’s my guess. That or Mo, since Shaone is a weird and olde tyme-looking spelling of a name.
by grapejoos on Aug 17, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m pretty sure it’s a Renaissance Festival.
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 17, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You’re both wrong! It’s a faire! :)
Fear the Rebel Polar Bears (trust me, this sig makes sense)
by crabchowdah on Aug 17, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think grapejoos has nailed it. He probably cheated like me and right clicked the properties on the image :)
by Cluster on Aug 17, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup. It’s also there in the image in teeny tiny letters…
by Gould Old Days on Aug 17, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you a regular at Bristol, or did you pull the image at random?
…what, can’t a person like hockey and English Renaissance reenactments?
by CapitalCentre on Aug 17, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
muffin top, the best part of a muffin.
gordo: just so good at his job. reliable in crunch time. reliable when marking the league’s top forwards. 56.1% on face-offs. with fehr’s injuries and shaMo’s price tag, i’ll hang on to the one player i fully expect to be a contributing capital 5 years down the road. maybe it’s because i haven’t seen enough of osala, but to me he doesn’t rank alongside the other prospects we’ve been rating…not yet. he has a chance to be a scoring power forward in the NHL, but 10 points in 22 playoff games doesn’t light my fire, and his scoring shrank considerably during the AHL season: 21 points through october and november, then ~3 points/month the rest of the way.
by Natty Bumppo on Aug 17, 2009 5:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Basically all the rookie skaters in Hershey hit a wall mid-way. It doesn’t scare me too much. If Gordon continues to grow as a player at some point a team is going to offer him a role as a 3C, including the commensurate raise. Unless you think he’s above Steckel, or will pass Steckel, or Steckel can be a 2C, then Gordon is a 4C. He’s a very good 4C but he’s still replaceable. Blair Betts is not close to as good of a hockey player as Boyd, but the two things we need from Boyd, face offs and PK, are Betts’ specialties. There are always 4th line guys around. If you have a chance at a top 6 power forward you have to take it.
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 17, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
conversely, maybe gordon allows us to let another team swoop in and overpay for steckel next summer. just like the two young goalies, steckel’s presence might lower gordo’s value a bit, but the best players have value no matter what, because they give the club options.
by Natty Bumppo on Aug 17, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s a good point. I have no doubt Boyd can be a decent 3C but I don’t know that he’ll do it as well as Steckel. Paying Betts less than Boyd and using the difference to keep Steckel might be a better line up. We’d still have a potential top 6 power forward in the mix and haven’t lost anything defensively. It would be easier and cheaper to overpay a little for Steckel to keep him than the pain we’d feel having to try to overpay to get a top 6 power forward from outside the organization.
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 17, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Paying Betts less than Boyd and using the difference to keep Steckel might be a better line up.
there are a lot of assumptions here, though. that boyd’s contract will increase. that betts’ won’t. that one of the other 30 teams in the league won’t value betts higher. that steckel won’t receive an astronomical offer elsewhere. regardless of how we project the caps’ 3rd and 4th lines now and into the future, they’ll need a handful of players with gordo’s skill set.
i’d love for osala to be a mainstay in washington (obviously). he might even get my next vote after boyd. but here’s how i look at this exercise:
1) stud NHL players
2) “blue chip” prospects, projected to be stud NHL players
3) average NHL players
4) very good prospects
5) NHL players with serious short-term or long-term risks, or bad salaries
maybe i’m just a year behind in my assessment, but i can’t put osala in the same class as alzner, carlson and the goalies…not until we see that jump in numbers you’re projecting. he does get a bump because of the poor RW and LW depth on the caps, though.
by Natty Bumppo on Aug 17, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
No doubt Osala is not in the same class as the G and D prospects on the list. There are always going to be a lot of assumptions at this point. My entire scenario was based on your assumption that Steckel earns a raise. The depth Boyd provides would be valuable in that situation, but there are other ways to deal with that loss. That’s the nature of 3rd and 4th line guys. Those guys are just less valuable to me because they are easy to replace. Checkers are frequently fan favorites because of the style they play and the heart the show, but they are easy to find.
If the Caps want to be a great team for a long time they will need secondary scoring. They are going to be paying AO and Backstrom and maybe Semin way too much money to be hiring outside free agents to score. GMGM is going to need to feed a steady stream of ELC scorers to keep scoring depth, and Osala and Fehr provide better potential to do that than anyone else on the list, IMO.
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 17, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if he projects to be an average NHL player, though (my assumption)…that’s 2, likely 3 of 4 years down the line. your point about continuing to bring in cheap, young scoring talent is well taken. and generally i’m all for getting longterm pieces in place. but with osala we’re talking about a player who (1) isn’t a sure thing in my mind, and (2) won’t be in the rotation as early as those other prospects. therefore i’ll take 3 extra years of one of the top defensive centers in the game. the steckel/FA scenarios don’t lower gordo’s value enough for me to pass on him.
by Natty Bumppo on Aug 17, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another thing to remember about Osala’s numbers – he got next to no PP time in Hershey. To put up the numbers he did before predictably hitting the wall, given the ice he got, is impressive.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Aug 17, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d bet that number goes up a bit this season. Borque won’t be there, and Osala proved he can score in the AHL.
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 17, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely. Plus, this organization tends to use things like PP time, NHL call-ups, etc., as carrots for young players. I’d think that last year was an introduction for Osala, this year they’ll take the training wheels off and see what he can do.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Aug 17, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think 30 goals and 50 points is his challenge.
by Gould Old Days on Aug 17, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like to imagine him with this voice, too.
"My face is my mask."
by jakeshapiro on Aug 17, 2009 9:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What are you implying about Theo Huxtable’s wardrobe?! I think it’s wonderful!
"My face is my mask."
by jakeshapiro on Aug 18, 2009 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Child of the 80’s Rec’d
"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it."
- Ferris Bueller
by war_capitals on Aug 18, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i nominate stephen strasburg to be added to the next poll.
by Natty Bumppo on Aug 18, 2009 1:03 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
He rubs me the wrong way. I don’t know. Holding out until the last second possible to maximize his profit gives me bad vibrations. I understand all athletes want to be millionaires, but still.
"My face is my mask."
by jakeshapiro on Aug 18, 2009 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really, it’s all about two words – Scott Boras. That man is nothing but awful for baseball (and I hope Matt Holliday fires him really soon).
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Aug 18, 2009 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t blame Strasburg at all, and there was never a real chance that he wasn’t going to sign once the Lerners got in the neighborhood. Kid wants to play ball and was just trying to take care of himself. After all, he could throw three pitches and have his elbow pop and then where is he? Ask Jordan Zimmermann.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Aug 18, 2009 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t worry about it – it has just become the standard operating procedure for top fifteen picks.
by David M. Getz on Aug 18, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even with the worst record in baseball, they’re running at 14th in attendance (nope, no banner for that in MLB). This town WANTS a winner and even more fans will come out if they can piece something together, this deal had to be done. Isn’t it $15M over 4 years? That’s not too risky in my book for a kid with that much upside to his game. He could blow out his elbow, sure, and any one of us could be hit by a bus on the way to work every morning, call it an occupational hazard that’s manageable by good planning (don’t step in front of bus and don’t wear the kid out by calling him up too quickly).
Sorry, back to hockey…
— Nationals Apologist
"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it."
- Ferris Bueller
by war_capitals on Aug 18, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nationals Apologist
Me too, for a combination of reasons:
- the franchise was screwed by MLB so bad that by the time they wound up in DC they were in worse shape than an expansion team
- they say they have a plan, it’s a good one, and their actions match their words
- the negativity surrounding them reminds me of the Capitals a few years ago
by David M. Getz on Aug 18, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2nded, especially for that last point, DMG. “It’s easy to grin when your ship comes in”, right? Not so easy to be a fan “when your shorts are too tight in the seat” to borrow from Judge Smails if I may…
Angelos deserves the guillotine, but that’s off-topic and has been beaten to death elsewhere…
"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it."
- Ferris Bueller
by war_capitals on Aug 18, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep.
One thing, though, is that while the dollars look good, it’s b/c they didn’t buy any free agent years. But sure, I’ll take him while he’s here.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Aug 18, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Clarification on the attendance ranking. They’re 14th in the National League (out of 16), and 26th overall in MLB (out of 30).
But hey, I’m with you. I’ll be an Apologist as well. I love the new ballpark, the team (when hitting) can be fun to watch, and I agree that this signing was a MUST.
by Cluster on Aug 18, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh. Thanks for clearing up that ranking, 14th overall vs. 14th out of 16 in the NL is a totally different ranking. Ooof.
"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it."
- Ferris Bueller
by war_capitals on Aug 18, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seemingly for almost-retired-but-still-good NHLers too
by red army line on Aug 18, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Despite all of his statistical success, I’m still surprised to see a guy with two bum shoulders…being voted in this early (even though it’s not early).
by Yoshietree on Aug 18, 2009 8:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking the same thing. Unfortunately, I think it is time to write off Fehr.
by Moonage Daydream on Aug 18, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"What are you worried about? He'll be fine! I did the surgery myself"
by Gould Old Days on Aug 18, 2009 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hi, everybody!
"My face is my mask."
by jakeshapiro on Aug 18, 2009 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the paper turns clear, it’s your window to weight gain!
Winterion Game Studios
Visit us online at : http://winterion.com
by winterion on Aug 18, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The red thing’s connected to my, wrist watch…
by brs03 on Aug 18, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Aug 18, 2009 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh man…. if he doesnt heal up well I nominate that as his nickname
Fehr is fair, but I like Laich
by amkcaps on Aug 18, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Totally.
"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it."
- Ferris Bueller
by war_capitals on Aug 18, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Rink is full of Black Knight references these days!
"My face is my mask."
by jakeshapiro on Aug 18, 2009 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I picked Gordo given his PK and faceoff skills. PK skills in short supply with this team, though I’m with J.P. on playing Semin more on PK. His stick alone is valuable as he has shown in the past.
by CP2Devil on Aug 18, 2009 10:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And I’m convinced that playing on the PK improves Semin’s focus at ES.
by Gould Old Days on Aug 18, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And reminds him to try to steal the puck the WHOLE game, not just when we’re shorthanded (and he’s great at it IMO, so all the better that BB encourages that part of his game).
"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it."
- Ferris Bueller
by war_capitals on Aug 18, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, his stick lift is scary good sometimes.
Winterion Game Studios
Visit us online at : http://winterion.com
by winterion on Aug 18, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I voted for Theo. Here’s why.
The reasons that Bruce said in this article.
I’m interested to know why people think that Fehr is more valuable to the organization than the “#1” goalie.
by Sct112 on Aug 18, 2009 2:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Short version is that you have to put quotes around “#1” because it’s a joke. Longer version is that when it comes to “what he brings on the ice or off it, his upside, what he could fetch in trade, and so on,” there isn’t a lot there for Theo. He has zero trade value. He is an average NHL goalie on the downside of his career with a large cap hit that will be on a different team next year no matter what. I’m ignoring the fact that two goalies have already been picked, though for some that might matter. It’s not all bad: he can win games and seems to be a pretty good teammate. But that’s not enough to get picked in this game.
Fehr isn’t perfect, but he is a very solid player when on the ice, has significant upside (if he can ever stay healthy), and would certainly fetch more than Theo in a trade. You could pick any one of these guys, but he’s the one I went with.
by grapejoos on Aug 18, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m interested to know why people think that Fehr is more valuable to the organization than the "#1" goalie.
Because Theo’s easily replaceable. He’s an average goalie with a big contract.
His place (or alleged place) on the depth chart shouldn’t matter – after it it wouldn’t have made sense to, in 2007, have said “Dainius Zubrus and Chris Clark are more valuable than Alexander Semin because they’re first line players and Semin’s the second line left wing”.
by David M. Getz on Aug 18, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Dainius Zubrus and Chris Clark are more valuable than Alexander Semin because they’re ‘first line players’ and Semin’s the second line left wing".
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 18, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fehr isn’t easily replaceable? He’s a guy that has all sorts of potential but has been hurt since he got to the NHL, and seems to be in the doghouse for whatever reason?
I think that “we” might be underestimating the importance of having a goalie that has been around the block. I’m not claiming that Theo should be #6 on the list. And if he was signed for another 2 years my opinion might be different. But he had 33 wins last year. For stretches, he played like a legit #1 and did win games for the Caps.
Would everyone really take Fehr and his 60 games, ~20 pts over a goalie that might be able to win 8-10 games as a backup and help get Varly into the groove on the NHL regular season.
As for the place on the depth chart, if I was comparing position players I would agree, but I’m not. I brought it up because Bruce considers him the guy to beat among goalies (at least in the media) and that has to be considered when you are talking about value to the franchise.
by Sct112 on Aug 18, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
think that "we" might be underestimating the importance of having a goalie that has been around the block. I’m not claiming that Theo should be #6 on the list. And if he was signed for another 2 years my opinion might be different. But he had 33 wins last year. For stretches, he played like a legit #1 and did win games for the Caps.
But there are any number of cheaper goalies with similar experience who could win 33 games for this team.
I just can’t get past last Spring’s one-and-done. To me, that says that no matter what happens in the regular season, he’s on a short leash when it matters, so I don’t really consider his upside very significant at all.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Aug 18, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can buy that.
If his role is similar to Fedorov’s last year, “produce when you are asked too but we aren’t going to be relying on you”, does his value change? (don’t get me wrong, Fedorov and Theo do not belong in the same sentence, but I’m stretching to make a point)
by Sct112 on Aug 18, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
IMO a one and done backup at 3x the value of a normal backup has little value at all. Any player that is going to contribute to the team down the road is more valuable than him.
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 18, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fehr isn’t easily replaceable? He’s a guy that has all sorts of potential but has been hurt since he got to the NHL, and seems to be in the doghouse for whatever reason?
I think Theodore’s more easily replaceable than Fehr (who was surprisingly productive in his limited ice time), plus Fehr has a lot more upside and a much smaller contract.
by David M. Getz on Aug 18, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So it boils down to $. Fehr is cheap and not worth a ton, and Theo is expensive and worth less. You guys haven’t convinced me but I at least understand your votes.
by Sct112 on Aug 18, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s also timeline. Fehr could contribute, even modestly, for the next 3-5 years, or more. Theo is gone after this season, I don’t think anyone disputes that. One year of overpaid average goaltending < Fehr’s limited production and remaining potential (albeit decreased).
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 18, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What if neither Varly nor Neuvy shows himself to be ready? What if Jose regains “contract-year” form?
I don’t buy it, but I could see the argument for him having some upside that isn’t very easily replaceable.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Aug 18, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for putting the gist of my thoughts into words. I knew you lawyering types were good for something. Damn English language has always been my Achilles heel.
by Sct112 on Aug 18, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If his NHL life flashes before his eyes and he goes Vezina 2.0 on us, nobody here is going to complain. After all, we’ve waited long enough for 35 pounds of silver.
Then again, while we’re in the world of hypotheticals, I’ve been thinking about a street-legal Zamboni.
Winterion Game Studios
Visit us online at : http://winterion.com
by winterion on Aug 18, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So it boils down to $. Fehr is cheap and not worth a ton, and Theo is expensive and worth less. You guys haven’t convinced me but I at least understand your votes.
For me, it’s DMG’s first comment — it’s about replaceability. There is at least one goalie who is Theo’s equal (or nearly so) who remains a free agent (Manny Fernandez). He’d command a salary much smaller than Theo’s.
Fehr, on the other hand, could be a really solid contributor for several years to come, at an extremely reasonable salary. I’ve seen enough from Fehr to believe he’s a useful cog. You can’t just get guys like him at that price with that RFA status. He’s not irreplaceable, but he’s surely harder to replace than Theo when the full context is assessed (salary, free agency status, etc.).
by Gould Old Days on Aug 18, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i agree. if we redraft the league from top to bottom tomorrow (all players with their current salaries and contracts), the team would continue to draft skaters at this stage because we could wait on a goalie similar to theo with a more affordable salary and longer terms. this is particularly the case when a team has two “goalies of the future” lying in wait.
by Natty Bumppo on Aug 18, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right — how many teams would list 3 goalies in their top 20?
by Gould Old Days on Aug 18, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recent FanShots
Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 30 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
|
Atlanta
|
18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 22 |
|
Florida
|
20 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 20 |
|
Carolina
|
21 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 13 |
(updated 11.21.2009 at 8:36 AM EST)
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
