Ranking the Capitals: #16
by J.P. on Aug 17, 2009 4:35 PM EDT
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PrintIn an effort to beat the summer doldrums, we're undertaking to rank - with your help - the Washington Capitals, from Ovechkin to, well, we'll see. The criteria is simple: who at this moment is the most valuable player in the organization who hasn't already been ranked? Put another way, if you could only keep one of the remaining players - because of what he brings on the ice or off it, his upside, what he could fetch in trade, and so on - who would it be? Consider age, potential, contract status, organizational depth, etc. - it's your call. And after you vote and defend your selection in the comments, help us out and suggest a name to add to the next poll. [Note: previous "Ranking the Capitals" posts can be found here."]
Welcome Michal Neuvirth to the list, and Oskar Osala to the poll...
If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.
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I was torn between Osala and Fehr. The other 8 guys on that list are pretty easily replaceable (and most of them can be replaced for cheaper). I went with Osala because he hasn’t had surgery on his back/hip and both shoulders. At this point I think Osala is a better bet to become what Fehr was supposed to be than Fehr is. We don’t have any long term garbage goal scorers in the organization other than these two guys, so one of them panning out saves us from having to go overpay for one of those guys on the FA or trade market. If there were a viable long term 2C on that list I might vote for them over Osala.
Hmmm. This is a tricky riddle. The Renaissance was a more rugged and pugilistic time, so maybe you’re going with Erskine. But the environment was in better shape back then, so maybe it’s Bradley. Then again, if you get locked in the stockades you need someone to watch your ass, and Boyd Gordon’s the best defensive player on that list. I’ll crack this picture clue yet…
(Renaissance) Fair = Fehr? That’s my guess. That or Mo, since Shaone is a weird and olde tyme-looking spelling of a name.
I think grapejoos has nailed it. He probably cheated like me and right clicked the properties on the image :)
Yup. It’s also there in the image in teeny tiny letters…
by Gould Old Days on Aug 17, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you a regular at Bristol, or did you pull the image at random?
…what, can’t a person like hockey and English Renaissance reenactments?
by CapitalCentre on Aug 17, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
muffin top, the best part of a muffin.
gordo: just so good at his job. reliable in crunch time. reliable when marking the league’s top forwards. 56.1% on face-offs. with fehr’s injuries and shaMo’s price tag, i’ll hang on to the one player i fully expect to be a contributing capital 5 years down the road. maybe it’s because i haven’t seen enough of osala, but to me he doesn’t rank alongside the other prospects we’ve been rating…not yet. he has a chance to be a scoring power forward in the NHL, but 10 points in 22 playoff games doesn’t light my fire, and his scoring shrank considerably during the AHL season: 21 points through october and november, then ~3 points/month the rest of the way.
Basically all the rookie skaters in Hershey hit a wall mid-way. It doesn’t scare me too much. If Gordon continues to grow as a player at some point a team is going to offer him a role as a 3C, including the commensurate raise. Unless you think he’s above Steckel, or will pass Steckel, or Steckel can be a 2C, then Gordon is a 4C. He’s a very good 4C but he’s still replaceable. Blair Betts is not close to as good of a hockey player as Boyd, but the two things we need from Boyd, face offs and PK, are Betts’ specialties. There are always 4th line guys around. If you have a chance at a top 6 power forward you have to take it.
conversely, maybe gordon allows us to let another team swoop in and overpay for steckel next summer. just like the two young goalies, steckel’s presence might lower gordo’s value a bit, but the best players have value no matter what, because they give the club options.
by Natty Bumppo on Aug 17, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s a good point. I have no doubt Boyd can be a decent 3C but I don’t know that he’ll do it as well as Steckel. Paying Betts less than Boyd and using the difference to keep Steckel might be a better line up. We’d still have a potential top 6 power forward in the mix and haven’t lost anything defensively. It would be easier and cheaper to overpay a little for Steckel to keep him than the pain we’d feel having to try to overpay to get a top 6 power forward from outside the organization.
Paying Betts less than Boyd and using the difference to keep Steckel might be a better line up.
there are a lot of assumptions here, though. that boyd’s contract will increase. that betts’ won’t. that one of the other 30 teams in the league won’t value betts higher. that steckel won’t receive an astronomical offer elsewhere. regardless of how we project the caps’ 3rd and 4th lines now and into the future, they’ll need a handful of players with gordo’s skill set.
i’d love for osala to be a mainstay in washington (obviously). he might even get my next vote after boyd. but here’s how i look at this exercise:
1) stud NHL players
2) “blue chip” prospects, projected to be stud NHL players
3) average NHL players
4) very good prospects
5) NHL players with serious short-term or long-term risks, or bad salaries
maybe i’m just a year behind in my assessment, but i can’t put osala in the same class as alzner, carlson and the goalies…not until we see that jump in numbers you’re projecting. he does get a bump because of the poor RW and LW depth on the caps, though.
by Natty Bumppo on Aug 17, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
No doubt Osala is not in the same class as the G and D prospects on the list. There are always going to be a lot of assumptions at this point. My entire scenario was based on your assumption that Steckel earns a raise. The depth Boyd provides would be valuable in that situation, but there are other ways to deal with that loss. That’s the nature of 3rd and 4th line guys. Those guys are just less valuable to me because they are easy to replace. Checkers are frequently fan favorites because of the style they play and the heart the show, but they are easy to find.
If the Caps want to be a great team for a long time they will need secondary scoring. They are going to be paying AO and Backstrom and maybe Semin way too much money to be hiring outside free agents to score. GMGM is going to need to feed a steady stream of ELC scorers to keep scoring depth, and Osala and Fehr provide better potential to do that than anyone else on the list, IMO.
if he projects to be an average NHL player, though (my assumption)…that’s 2, likely 3 of 4 years down the line. your point about continuing to bring in cheap, young scoring talent is well taken. and generally i’m all for getting longterm pieces in place. but with osala we’re talking about a player who (1) isn’t a sure thing in my mind, and (2) won’t be in the rotation as early as those other prospects. therefore i’ll take 3 extra years of one of the top defensive centers in the game. the steckel/FA scenarios don’t lower gordo’s value enough for me to pass on him.
by Natty Bumppo on Aug 17, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Another thing to remember about Osala’s numbers – he got next to no PP time in Hershey. To put up the numbers he did before predictably hitting the wall, given the ice he got, is impressive.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I’d bet that number goes up a bit this season. Borque won’t be there, and Osala proved he can score in the AHL.
Definitely. Plus, this organization tends to use things like PP time, NHL call-ups, etc., as carrots for young players. I’d think that last year was an introduction for Osala, this year they’ll take the training wheels off and see what he can do.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I think 30 goals and 50 points is his challenge.
by Gould Old Days on Aug 17, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions
i nominate stephen strasburg to be added to the next poll.
by Natty Bumppo on Aug 18, 2009 1:03 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
He rubs me the wrong way. I don’t know. Holding out until the last second possible to maximize his profit gives me bad vibrations. I understand all athletes want to be millionaires, but still.
"My face is my mask."
by Jake Shapiro on Aug 18, 2009 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Despite all of his statistical success, I’m still surprised to see a guy with two bum shoulders…being voted in this early (even though it’s not early).
I was thinking the same thing. Unfortunately, I think it is time to write off Fehr.
by Moonage Daydream on Aug 18, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Totally.
"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it."
- Ferris Bueller
by war_capitals on Aug 18, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
The Rink is full of Black Knight references these days!
"My face is my mask."
by Jake Shapiro on Aug 18, 2009 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I picked Gordo given his PK and faceoff skills. PK skills in short supply with this team, though I’m with J.P. on playing Semin more on PK. His stick alone is valuable as he has shown in the past.
And I’m convinced that playing on the PK improves Semin’s focus at ES.
by Gould Old Days on Aug 18, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
And reminds him to try to steal the puck the WHOLE game, not just when we’re shorthanded (and he’s great at it IMO, so all the better that BB encourages that part of his game).
"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it."
- Ferris Bueller
by war_capitals on Aug 18, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I voted for Theo. Here’s why.
The reasons that Bruce said in this article.
I’m interested to know why people think that Fehr is more valuable to the organization than the “#1” goalie.
Short version is that you have to put quotes around “#1” because it’s a joke. Longer version is that when it comes to “what he brings on the ice or off it, his upside, what he could fetch in trade, and so on,” there isn’t a lot there for Theo. He has zero trade value. He is an average NHL goalie on the downside of his career with a large cap hit that will be on a different team next year no matter what. I’m ignoring the fact that two goalies have already been picked, though for some that might matter. It’s not all bad: he can win games and seems to be a pretty good teammate. But that’s not enough to get picked in this game.
Fehr isn’t perfect, but he is a very solid player when on the ice, has significant upside (if he can ever stay healthy), and would certainly fetch more than Theo in a trade. You could pick any one of these guys, but he’s the one I went with.
I’m interested to know why people think that Fehr is more valuable to the organization than the "#1" goalie.
Because Theo’s easily replaceable. He’s an average goalie with a big contract.
His place (or alleged place) on the depth chart shouldn’t matter – after it it wouldn’t have made sense to, in 2007, have said “Dainius Zubrus and Chris Clark are more valuable than Alexander Semin because they’re first line players and Semin’s the second line left wing”.
Fehr isn’t easily replaceable? He’s a guy that has all sorts of potential but has been hurt since he got to the NHL, and seems to be in the doghouse for whatever reason?
I think that “we” might be underestimating the importance of having a goalie that has been around the block. I’m not claiming that Theo should be #6 on the list. And if he was signed for another 2 years my opinion might be different. But he had 33 wins last year. For stretches, he played like a legit #1 and did win games for the Caps.
Would everyone really take Fehr and his 60 games, ~20 pts over a goalie that might be able to win 8-10 games as a backup and help get Varly into the groove on the NHL regular season.
As for the place on the depth chart, if I was comparing position players I would agree, but I’m not. I brought it up because Bruce considers him the guy to beat among goalies (at least in the media) and that has to be considered when you are talking about value to the franchise.
think that "we" might be underestimating the importance of having a goalie that has been around the block. I’m not claiming that Theo should be #6 on the list. And if he was signed for another 2 years my opinion might be different. But he had 33 wins last year. For stretches, he played like a legit #1 and did win games for the Caps.
But there are any number of cheaper goalies with similar experience who could win 33 games for this team.
I just can’t get past last Spring’s one-and-done. To me, that says that no matter what happens in the regular season, he’s on a short leash when it matters, so I don’t really consider his upside very significant at all.
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I can buy that.
If his role is similar to Fedorov’s last year, “produce when you are asked too but we aren’t going to be relying on you”, does his value change? (don’t get me wrong, Fedorov and Theo do not belong in the same sentence, but I’m stretching to make a point)
Fehr isn’t easily replaceable? He’s a guy that has all sorts of potential but has been hurt since he got to the NHL, and seems to be in the doghouse for whatever reason?
I think Theodore’s more easily replaceable than Fehr (who was surprisingly productive in his limited ice time), plus Fehr has a lot more upside and a much smaller contract.
So it boils down to $. Fehr is cheap and not worth a ton, and Theo is expensive and worth less. You guys haven’t convinced me but I at least understand your votes.
It’s also timeline. Fehr could contribute, even modestly, for the next 3-5 years, or more. Theo is gone after this season, I don’t think anyone disputes that. One year of overpaid average goaltending < Fehr’s limited production and remaining potential (albeit decreased).
What if neither Varly nor Neuvy shows himself to be ready? What if Jose regains “contract-year” form?
I don’t buy it, but I could see the argument for him having some upside that isn’t very easily replaceable.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
If his NHL life flashes before his eyes and he goes Vezina 2.0 on us, nobody here is going to complain. After all, we’ve waited long enough for 35 pounds of silver.
Then again, while we’re in the world of hypotheticals, I’ve been thinking about a street-legal Zamboni.
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So it boils down to $. Fehr is cheap and not worth a ton, and Theo is expensive and worth less. You guys haven’t convinced me but I at least understand your votes.
For me, it’s DMG’s first comment — it’s about replaceability. There is at least one goalie who is Theo’s equal (or nearly so) who remains a free agent (Manny Fernandez). He’d command a salary much smaller than Theo’s.
Fehr, on the other hand, could be a really solid contributor for several years to come, at an extremely reasonable salary. I’ve seen enough from Fehr to believe he’s a useful cog. You can’t just get guys like him at that price with that RFA status. He’s not irreplaceable, but he’s surely harder to replace than Theo when the full context is assessed (salary, free agency status, etc.).
by Gould Old Days on Aug 18, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
i agree. if we redraft the league from top to bottom tomorrow (all players with their current salaries and contracts), the team would continue to draft skaters at this stage because we could wait on a goalie similar to theo with a more affordable salary and longer terms. this is particularly the case when a team has two “goalies of the future” lying in wait.
by Natty Bumppo on Aug 18, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Right — how many teams would list 3 goalies in their top 20?
by Gould Old Days on Aug 18, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
54 | 26 | 17 | 11 | 63 |
|
Washington
|
54 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
57 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
54 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 54 |
|
Carolina
|
56 | 20 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
(updated 2.12.2012 at 8:46 AM EST)
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