The "Wheres" and "Whos" of Faceoffs
In yesterday's discussion of "Faceoff Position" and how it related to players' Corsi Ratings and individual goal differentials, you may have noticed that, with a few notable exceptions, most Caps skaters were on the ice for approximately as many offensive zone faceoffs as defensive zone draws at even strength - only three Caps (Mike Green, Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom) averaged more than 1.5 more faceoffs in the O-zone than in their own end, and only one skater average more than 0.2 more D-zone draws than offensive zone faceoffs (Boyd Gordon at 1.0).
Right off the bat, this tells us a couple of things. First, that the Caps had a massive territorial advantage in draw positioning (as we noted yesterday, play started in the offensive zone 33% of the time and just 27% of the time in the defensive zone for the 2008-09 Caps). But it also tells us that Bruce Boudreau isn't a big fan of matching lines - he plays his guys where he wants to, when he wants to.
To wit, last season only one Cap - Gordon - was on the ice for more than 51% of his non-neutral zone even strength faceoffs in the defensive zone (again, that territorial advantage is a big contributor here). But it's still somewhat surprising, perhaps, that David Steckel - he of the League's fifth-best faceoff percentage - was on the sheet for fewer D-zone draws at even strength than Backstrom (and his 48.7% success rate). To be sure, it speaks to the how incredibly complete Backstrom's game is (already), but it's also evidence of Gabby not sacrificing the playing time of his big guns based on where a faceoff takes place.
Here are the per game averages for the Caps' six centers who took more than 100 even strength draws in 2008-09, along with the percentage of non-neutral zone draws each had in either end and finally their overall faceoff win percentage, ranked by even strength defensive zone draws per game:
So while Backstrom had a relatively low percentage of the non-neutral zone faceoffs for which he was on the ice occur in the defensive zone, it wasn't because Boudreau was hiding him, but rather because he was on so often for draws at the other end of the ice. The same cannot be said, however, for Michael Nylander.
Still, I think I'd have expected a bit more Steckel for defensive zone draws, especially given that these numbers don't just represent faceoffs taken, but faceoffs for which the player lined up elsewhere (i.e. if Gabby had both Gordon and Steckel out for a key draw, they'd both get credited with a defensive zone faceoff here).
The story on the blueline is similar, with nary a rearguard taking the ice more frequently for a draw in his own end than in the offensive zone:
That Mike Green is at the bottom of this list provides fodder for his detractors, and given that he led all Caps in five-on-five ice time, it's an interesting point. It's also interesting to see Milan Jurcina and Tyler Sloan tapped for more D-zone draws than Shaone Morrisonn and Jeff Schultz, but given that Juice and Sloan didn't get much special teams ice, it's likely just a matter of spreading even strength minutes.
The last group of skaters to take a quick glance at are the wings:
What jumps out immediately is that the wingers are on the ice for fewer defensive zone draws and a lower percentage of their non-neutral faceoffs are in the defensive zone than the centers (and yes, even if you move Laich into this second group of forwards). Why? Because for key defensive zone draws, Boudreau, like any good coach, puts out two centers in case one gets thrown out of the circle. Not surprisingly, the average number of offensive zone draws for the wings is the same as the centers if Laich is considered in the former group. How 'bout that?
The bottom line here is that other than putting his big guns out for offensive zone draws, Bruce Boudreau isn't much for situational line matching. Is that the result (or perhaps the cause) of the Caps' territorial advantage at even strength? Would he coach differently if he was forced to send out lines as often for draws in his team's defensive end? Hopefully we'll never find out.
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How many face offs did Steckel take a game? Only 6 in the O and D zones, was he cleaning up in the neutral zone face offs?
Well, he only got 9:55 of ES TOI per game, and yeah, he took a lot of neutral zone draws (~40% of his total ES draws).
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What is it with Swedish centers and defensive zone draws?
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I’m not sure if it’s a serious question, but Swedes are trained to be very defensively responsible. The SEL is one of the most defensive leagues in the world and the young guys that go through there are forced to learn to play in their own end before they can get much ice time. Think about Angus and Johansson, both are buried on their SEL depth charts behind adults in their prime. Neither is going to get by just by scoring so they have to develop rounded games. It’s one reason I personally think most Swedish prospects are relatively safe bets.
It’s semi-serious; the defensive zone-offensive zone win % was the widest with those two if I read the chart right, and it’s possible I didn’t.
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by Bald Pollack on Aug 13, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
…which goes against my entire point about their defensive reliability. But those % numbers aren’t the W-L %, it is the percent of faceoffs taken in that end. Also, Nylander isn’t the typical Swede in his own end, so just throw him out (pretty please with a big fat KHL contract on top).
But those % numbers aren’t the W-L %, it is the percent of faceoffs taken in that end.
Gotcha, I knew my reading fail was somewhere. Nuke me from orbit.
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by Bald Pollack on Aug 13, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
For anyone whose eyes gloss over at all these numbers, I recommend clicking on the Gordo picture for a closer look – it’s a nice shot.
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He’s got a great beard going in that photo. Makes me want him to haul lumber and take names.
"My face is my mask."
by Jake Shapiro on Aug 13, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Excellent work as always – I’m not usually one for stat-crunching but the stuff you’ve been posting lately is really interesting.
And if you’ll allow me a brief puckbunny moment…thank you for that picture of Gordo.
Ahem.
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Exactly! I’d love my Caps even if they weren’t so pretty – unlike, say, the boys and their silly little Red Rockers.
I have a big, long rant about that :) I don’t post it on boys’ sites, though.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Yeah, they get all uncomfortable when we do that…do you need me to start an open thread for Red Rocker Rants over on mine? ;)
Heh. Maybe that should be a category, and that would be awesome. Of course, I have my share of rants about Club Scarlet too, so ….
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Um, Crosby is not good-looking :) Nice try.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Ugh. This image is stamped into my retinas forever. FML.
"My face is my mask."
by Jake Shapiro on Aug 13, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I need some time to digest the specific stats in this one, but having Gordon (righty) and Steckel (lefty) is a luxury (plus Fedorov, too, the last season plus) for a coaching staff when it comes to faceoffs.
OT: Is there any site that captures how many times a team faced a defensive zone draw due to an icing when the coaching staff can’t change the center?
I have spent some time looking at the faceoff stats over the years, in particular for Gordon and Steckel. I’ll have to dig up a post I made somewhere about their 07-08 stats.
Curious, do you know what the faceoffs taken cutoff was to make it on the NHL faceoff leader stats? I’m pretty sure Gordon and Fedorov must have just missed and the cutoff was around 700.
What’s the desired handedness on a face-off with respect to the opponent, or isn’t there? (a-la baseball and pitcher/batter matchups)
I’d think the hope in the defensive zone is that the momentum directs to the boards, so is it circle-based which guy you have take the face?
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I think it’s interesting that Tyler Sloan is split 50/50 between defensive and offensive draws, and is the only Cap who is even. Is that a product of balanced play, limited ice time, or something else?
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