Hockey's Future Ranks The Capitals Top 20 Prospects
by J.P. on Aug 1, 2009 10:42 AM EDT
67 comments
Hockey's Future has fresh rankings of its Top 20 Caps Prospects out, and here's the list:
1. Simeon Varlamov, G 8.5B
2. Karl Alzner, D 8.0B
3. John Carlson, D 7.5B
4. Michal Neuvirth, G 7.5C
5. Oskar Osala, LW 7.0B
6. Marcus Johansson, C 7.0B
7. Chris Bourque, LW 7.0C
8. Mathieu Perreault, C 7.0C
9. Dmitri Orlov, D 7.0C
10. Anton Gustafsson, C 7.0D
11. Francois Bouchard, RW 7.0D
12. Andrew Gordon, RW 6.5B
13. Dmitri Kugryshev, RW 6.5C
14. Stefan Della Rovere, LW 6.0B
15. Joel Broda, C/W 6.5D
16. Cody Eakin, C 6.0C
17. Braden Holtby, G 6.0C
18. Kyle Wilson, C 6.0D
19. Joe Finley, D 6.0D
20. Patrick Wey, D 6.0D
[Note: The number next to each player represents that "player's realistic potential ability," while the letter represents "the player's realistic chances of achieving their potential." In other words, Stefan Della Rovere has a lower ceiling than Francois Bouchard, but is much more likely to reach that potential.]
Each player gets a paragraph or two justifying his rank and rating, so make sure to click through for some thoughts on each of the twenty, and share your own thoughts on the list and analysis in the comments.
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I’m pretty happy to see those “Bs” next to Carlson, Osala, and Johansson (though I’m guessing they probably don’t know that much about Johansson).
AnGus: 7.0D? Bustaffson indeed.
by grapejoos on Aug 1, 2009 10:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m not really sure about some of these ratings. I’m fairly certain HF has one local unaffiliated writer follow development camp and other media create this list. It doesn’t take heavy scrutiny from editors or anything.
So it’s one man’s opinion. I’m not sure for example, how Broda who has basically had a ‘standard’ showing is rated higher than Holtby, who media often won’t shut up about.
Johansson didn’t even show up to camp, yet Orlov who was given extremely high marks, is less likely to reach his potential.
by Laich on Aug 1, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bleh, terrible grammar – I just woke up. I need an editor myself!
by Laich on Aug 1, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holtby being so low and with so low a ceiling jumped out at me, as did the lack of any of the undrafted prospects (fwiw, here is their definition of “prospect”). And Godfrey and Mestery continue to sink like stones.
But yeah, one man’s opinion (albeit a pretty decent effort, I’d say).
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by J.P. on Aug 1, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seconded on the “decent effort.” The writer, Dan Watkins, did a good job. In particular, the Osala and Bourque writeups show some hard work going beyond just listing stats and such. It also sounds like he attended development camp (or read everything about it that he could).
These writeups from HF have been pretty inconsistent over time (some great, some not so much). This one is well researched and solid overall. My issues with it are quibbles over judgment calls — Holtby is a good example; Jay Beagle’s absence from the list is another.
by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I definitely quibble with some of their evaluations (and rankings among the teams) but in general I think the Caps content on that site has been getting steadily better.
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 1, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
May this silly and highly amusing meme never die.
by grapejoos on Aug 1, 2009 11:13 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
J.P., are you planning on doing your own rankings list similar to what The Falconer did over at Bird Watchers Anonymous?
by CP2Devil on Aug 1, 2009 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hadn’t planned on it, because while I like discussing lists like this, making them isn’t nearly as much fun (or, frankly, useful). I mean, how do you compare a 21-year-old goalie that we’ve seen for 20 NHL games with a center drafted in the first round of 2009 who none of us has ever seen (or even with a defenseman we’ve seen for 30 NHL games, for that matter)?
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by J.P. on Aug 1, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I mean, how do you compare a 21-year-old goalie that we’ve seen for 20 NHL games with a center drafted in the first round of 2009 who none of us has ever seen (or even with a defenseman we’ve seen for 30 NHL games, for that matter)?
However you want. We’ll let you know where you’re wrong.
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 1, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Verrrry interesting. . .
Thanks for the link to the fuller explanation of the ratings numbers and letters. A 10 is “Generational talent — a player for the ages, one who can do things with a puck that no other player would even contemplate doing”.
An “A” is “All but guaranteed to reach potential – 100 percent metaphysical certitude that the player will play up to his abilities as noted by his potential rating.”
I love “metaphysical certitude”. It’s so hockey.
Anyone remember if Ovie was a 10A when he was ranked? I’d love to see some of the old numbers to see if this Metaphysical Certitude Swami has called it well over the years.
by Uncle C on Aug 1, 2009 11:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
iirc Ovie was a 9A…Crosby was a 10 tho…
by DonCaps819 on Aug 1, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
9A
Ovie and Malkin were 9A’s. Croz was a 10C.
Wow, what a difference a year makes — Gus Jr. way down, and Varly at the top of the heap. I think they had Varly at a 7 or 7.5 last year, but I’m not completely sure.
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by turnituptoeleven on Aug 1, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting that Beagle doesn’t make the list despite seeing playing time with the Caps last year.
by Stormblue on Aug 1, 2009 11:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He’s part of the “other notables” list.
by Laich on Aug 1, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Beagle and A. Gordon could have had virtually the same writeup, except Beagle’s a center. Beagle played fairly well for the Caps this year too. I’d give him the same 6.5B that Gordon got.
by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure why Dovgan is so far down the depth chart, but it seems like he should be above guys like McNeil, Headman, Finley, Collins, Godfrey, and Seabrook (D’oh). Does anyone have an idea about where Dovgan is going to play this year?
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 1, 2009 1:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Along that same vein, I don’t know why Orlov is so far down – we haven’t seen Johansson play, yet, but O’s clearly the best draft pick of 2009, thus far. I just hope we see him before he turns 28.
by DrinkingPartner on Aug 1, 2009 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Given that the KHL has shown that they’re not going to care about the NHL RFA rules, I think the only thing that keeps a KHL RFA there is the player himself. As long as no one keeps him from actually leaving the country, of course.
Just my relatively uninformed opinion, of course.
by gfcaps fan on Aug 2, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I tend to agree – by signing and registering Hudler, the KHL gave up the right to claim that a player’s RFA status in one league means anything to the other.
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by J.P. on Aug 2, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A good point. The KHL’s shot themselves in the foot on this one.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Aug 2, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just hope they don’t go through the whole court deal like with 28
by red army line on Aug 2, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I totally agree with the analysis on Chris Bourque. This is his year.. get on the third and/or fourth line, play hard, play reliable hockey, don’t make mistakes, and he can find himself on this team for years to come. Goodness knows, I’m rooting for him. =)
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by winterion on Aug 1, 2009 2:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if there’s space for him to get a fair opportunity. What’s the “grinder” depth chart look like right now for the Caps?
Ovechkin, Backstrom, Semin, and Knuble are locks for the top 2 lines. All indications are that Morrison will be up there as well. But there are several other “skill” forwards on this team (Flash, Laich, Fehr, arguably Clark, and possibly Nylander). Some of that skill will have to trickle down to the third line.
Assuming Flash is the guy on the 2nd line, Bourque’s battling with Laich, Steckel, Clark, Bradley, Gordon, and Fehr for a spot on one of the lower lines. If Clark really is healthy and back to speed, Bourque’s going to have to work pretty hard to take his spot. Gordon seems more vulnerable, but Bourque doesn’t play center. And I could see Bradley or Fehr losing playing time to Bourque — especially since Fehr has injury issues to deal with.
Bourque could actually be the big loser if Nylander comes back with a new frame of mind. You could see something like this:
Ovechkin-Backstrom-Semin
Laich-Morrison-Knuble (This line plays the primary defensive shutdown role as well as a scoring role)
Flash-Nylander-Fehr (Relatively few minutes for a “third line”, since the top 2 lines are populated with workhorses — counted on mainly for extra offense)
Bradley-Steckel-Clark/Gordon (Energy line/second shutdown line)
It’s hard to see where Bourque fits into a lineup like this.
by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bradley-Steckel-Clark/Gordon (Energy line/second shutdown line)
What’s the firstshut down line? No line with Nyls or Flash is going to be considered a shutdown line. The first two lines are offensively loaded so they aren’t shutdown lines. I think Borque is going to be the extra forward on the roster and fill in whenever a guy is injured or not playing up to snuff. I also think it’s highly unrealistic for Nyls to be playing anything other than a top 6 C role since he’s shown that he can’t do much at wing and he’s not defensive minded enough to play in a checking role. If Nyls doesn’t go back to Europe he either comes back and fights for 2C or he sits in the press box.
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 1, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Laich-Morrison-Knuble (This line plays the primary defensive shutdown role as well as a scoring role)
by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And just to spell it out, one of the things I love about Detroit is that they put Datsyuk or Zetterberg out whenever the opposing team’s best line is out there. Not only do those guys play excellent shutdown D, you obviously have to respect their offense as well. I’ve always liked the idea of a second line that you put out against the other team’s top line, but that is counted on to score goals too — particularly because so many first lines around the league don’t play much defense so there’s always an opportunity to score against them.
by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oops. Reading fail. I didn’t notice your explanation of that line. Even so, I disagree that that line would be a real shut down line or a real scoring line. Morrison isn’t very physical so counting on him to neutralize one of the many stud Cs in the EC is a risky proposition. Knuble and Laich are adequate defensively but neither skate well enough to be real shutdown guys and play offense. Hank and Datsyuk are amazing players and really we only have one C in the organization that has the potential to get into that category, Backstrom. DET is definitely the model for the 2-way line but it’s the personnel that makes it work; most teams can’t do that. I think that second line you suggest would be OK defensively, they wouldn’t be a liability at least. I also think they wouldn’t do much scoring. Knuble can clean up around the net, and that’s basically Laich’s offensive upside as well. BMo can skate the puck and pass but there isn’t a shooter on that line that will put the fear of God in anyone. I’d swap Semin and Knuble and our top 2 lines would be have much better balance.
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 1, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I question whether Bruce’s philosophy includes having a ‘shutdown line’ at all. He’s not typically a lineup matcher. I think our bottom two C’s are good enough defensively; in the dot they can certainly draw against a top line. But none of our wings are really stout defensively. In fact, I don’t think we have anyone in our top six lineup who would truly qualify as a shutdown player, certainly not in the mold of those DET C’s. By the way, here’s a look at good defensive forward ratings here and here.
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by bigonetimer on Aug 1, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The good news is that the Caps’ defense seems to have improved this summer. This post by Mirtle is my favorite source on defensive forwards. Mike Knuble looks pretty good on that list, and he got a lot of PK time in Philly (2:12 per game). Of course, some of that is getting to play with Richards and Carter. But I think it’s fair to call Knuble defensively responsible at least.
Here’s Knuble’s stats from Mirtle’s post:
10 MIKE KNUBLE PHI 81 GP 0.04 Qualcomp 2.35 EVGAA 5.75 SHGAA
Morrison was not much of a penalty killer last year, with only 30 seconds shorthanded per game. Here’s how Morrison would have looked on Mirtle’s stats
BRENDAN MORRISON ANA/DAL 81 GP -0.076 Qualcomp 1.81 EVGAA 5.88 SHGAA
Morrison’s 1.81 EVGAA was the lowest of any Stars regular. To compare, Jere Lehtinen led the Stars with 2:15 of PK time per game. His EVGAA was 2.33 and his SHGAA was 5.24. Lehtinen obviously faced tougher competition (0.053 QualComp) but Morrison doesn’t look all that bad in comparison. And Morrison has been a penalty killer before, averaging 1:57 in 82 games in 05/06.
I think there’s no doubt Knuble is a big defensive upgrade from Kozlov. My guess is that a healthy Morrison is just about Fedorov’s equal defensively at this stage in their careers, although Fedorov was clearly better in his prime. (Fedorov: 2.46 EVGAA last year). The question is whether Morrison really has recovered the speed that has been the key to his success.
by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bruce doesn’t match, per se, but he does pay attention to who the other team is putting on the ice. The guy in our lineup that I think can really be a shutdown guy is Steckel. He’s not going to show up on either list you linked to because he doesn’t have the offense and he doesn’t have the ice to accumulate a ton of takeaways. Using Datsyuk and Zetterberg as the bar for a defensive shutdown guy is unrealistic; if that’s your standard there are maybe 5 of those guys in the game. Backstrom could become a player like Zetterberg, but he’s not there yet. He has shown very strong defensive game for such a young guy and you have to think he’s only going to get better.
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 1, 2009 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Steckel led the Caps forwards with 3:48 PK ice time per game.
DAVE STECKEL 76 GP -0.035 QualComp (surprisingly low), 1.94 EVGAA (3rd after Bradley and Brashear), 6.77 SHGAA.
Not bad, but not elite either. There are guys on Mirtle’s list with a SHGAA below 5. But then again, Steckel is still improving.
by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed, Stecks is going to be a key keep for us next offseason. Anyone want to hazard a guess? I’ll say 2.5 now, and more if he puts 15 or so inhas a better offensive year than last.
now, if we could just bloom another center we have in the ranks….
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by bigonetimer on Aug 1, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you suggesting that Steckel is going to get a contract worth 2.5 million per year?
by Yoshietree on Aug 2, 2009 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He is a UFA next summer. He might get more.
by Gould Old Days on Aug 2, 2009 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What have UFA’s with comparable statistics been getting the past couple of years? Next year by all accounts should stink for UFA’s, so if in today’s market he’s worth 2.5, next year it could be a lot less.
by gfcaps fan on Aug 2, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stats may tell some of the story. But with folks out in EDM already inquiring about the guy, the real measure of free agency money, demand, is already going up for the guy.
I think 2.5M would be a bit reckless, but I could see one team going for it (and it might only take one team, unless he takes the hometown discount to see what Ovi can bring him).
by war_capitals on Aug 2, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Folks out in EDM does not = the Oilers. Wasn’t that just discussion board jabbering?
Of course, if the Caps win the Cup next year (not jinxing by speculating, just going with a train of thought), all bets are off for any UFA, as that’s the year you go get paid.
by gfcaps fan on Aug 2, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Would he deserve it? Maybe. I don’t see him getting it.
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by winterion on Aug 2, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can see him getting $1.5-$2m easy. Faceoff guys that can PK and provide some offense aren’t a dime a dozen in the NHL.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Aug 2, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think $2m is the max we’re likely to see. Pahlsson is a somewhat comparable player – older, but also has a reputation for being better. He got a 3-year deal for 7.95 million. That averages to $2.65m, but I don’t think Schultz will get as much given his reputation (or lack thereof) and the cap dropping.
Of course, it all depends on what kind of year he has.
by grapejoos on Aug 2, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pahlsson’s reputation and income stem from the 07 Cup run. He was a beast in both ends of the ice and very well could have been Conn Smythe. If Steckel brings that this year I’ll be happy to watch him get paid that kind of money, even if elsewhere.
by Fehr and Balanced on Aug 2, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Steckel might take a hometown (ok, more like the “I Love Bruce”) discount to stay in Washington.
by RedBirdie on Aug 3, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bourque will never shine on a 3rd or 4th line. He’s got to get top-6 minutes to show what he can do.
Granted, Ovechkin dominates no matter with whom he’s playing. I think Flash and Bourque compare well, though, in terms of needing certain types of linemates to be effective.
by DrinkingPartner on Aug 1, 2009 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I laich it. I laich it. (That is, a potential line of Laich-Morrison-Knuble). I know Morrison and Knuble will like being together, for starters.
by CapsFan75 on Aug 1, 2009 4:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nothing yet. Last I heard, he might be close to re-signing with Hershey. In other words, he’s tried to land a deal with an NHL team but hasn’t yet.
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by J.P. on Aug 1, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I suppose having too many good forwards is a good problem to have. Same on defense.
by red army line on Aug 1, 2009 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Giroux always struck me as a career AHL guy.
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by winterion on Aug 1, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still, you have to wonder about it. Dude scored 75 goals in the AHL! He must be capable of at least 15 or 20 in the NHL. There are going to be plenty of forwards in the NHL this year who underperform what Giroux would have done.
I don’t see a place for him on the Caps, and I understand the issue that he needs to play on the top 2 lines to be useful at all, but somebody somewhere is going to have a putrid offense that he could help…
by Gould Old Days on Aug 1, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does that make him a consideration at the trade deadline?
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by winterion on Aug 1, 2009 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’ll be more expensive then than he is now. Everyone in the league knows he’ll take a league minimum salary for a 1-way right now. Come the trade deadline, they’ll have to give the Caps something in return as well.
by Gould Old Days on Aug 2, 2009 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I seem to recall reading during the Calder playoffs that he was on that last year (article stating his AHL salary was $475,000). So, knowing Hershey wants to keep him and he’d probably like to be there, that would indicate that the sticking point is likely the 50 contract limit. If the Caps can afford to throw one away, he stays, if not, he goes, assuming someone else offers him one.
by gfcaps fan on Aug 2, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There’s no reason Hershey couldn’t sign him and it wouldn’t count against the 50 (see Helmer).
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by J.P. on Aug 2, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How’s that work?
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by winterion on Aug 2, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hershey can sign its own players that the Caps can’t call up. Dean Arsene I think was one example. Giroux last year was under contract with Washington, meaning he counted against the 50.
by red army line on Aug 2, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right. And Helmer had a contract with Hershey at the beginning of the year, but with all the injuries, the Caps decided they wanted to use him, so they had to sign him before calling him up when they did.
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by J.P. on Aug 2, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
NHL 09 does have some things right.
by red army line on Aug 2, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now, if the announcers could just figure our how to properly pronounce the names of half the Caps players…!
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by winterion on Aug 2, 2009 5:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
And Joudrey, who the Caps released come 7/1.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Aug 2, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I agree. I was looking at it from the Caps viewpoint, though. Giroux wants an NHL contract and as of now, the Caps don’t seem to want to give it to him.
I read that one of the Moose players was getting $600,000 on an AHL contract, so a rich team can pay what they want..
by gfcaps fan on Aug 2, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And Walton has suggested that Hershey offered Giroux a rich AHL-only contract like that.
by Gould Old Days on Aug 2, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree on Giroux. Even though his finishing was awful and all, he had a lot of scoring chances in his call-up with the Caps. You’d have to think a guy who scored that many in the AHL is capable of settling down and burying those chances in the NHL, right?
I agree the Caps may not have room for him, but I think he’s worth a league minimum, 1-year NHL contract for some team.
by grapejoos on Aug 2, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good list, overall. Like some others, I think Holtby seems low and I’m not sure Godfrey and Mestery have really fallen that far (Kyle Wilson? Really?), but on the whole it seems pretty solid.
by LSF76 on Aug 2, 2009 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
One simple comment: that photo of Varlamov accompanying this post is one of my favorite goalie photos.
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by boutros23 on Aug 3, 2009 1:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
67 | 45 | 13 | 9 | 99 |
|
Atlanta
|
66 | 28 | 28 | 10 | 66 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
66 | 27 | 27 | 12 | 66 |
|
Florida
|
66 | 27 | 29 | 10 | 64 |
|
Carolina
|
67 | 28 | 31 | 8 | 64 |
(updated 3.12.2010 at 9:20 AM EST)
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