My bold predictions for this upcoming year.
by JSchon on Jul 7, 2009 6:43 AM EDT
41 comments
The Caps Cap
The Caps are currently sitting at $53,275,126 salary capwise and 20 players signed for next season, that leaves $3,524,874 for 3 roster spots. The players in flux right now are (my Boy) Eric Fehr, Boyd Gordon, Chris Bourque, Milan Jurcina, Jeff Schultz and Shaone Morrisonn. I think Morrisonn will be dealt during the offseason for a draft pick of some kind. Fehr, Gordon and Schultz should all sign the QO, that leaves Jurcina who will go to an arbitrator. No big deal, I get it, he's 26 wants to make a little more coin had a pretty year (he looked great when he was paired with Fedorov and Alzner). Juice comes back to us I think at a slightly higher pay level than $900K, my guess $1.3M.We aren't moving Theodore, so say goodbye to Brent Johnson.
The Pre-season Battles
Now everybody is in camp and ready to go. It is extremely unlikely we get the 2nd line C through a trade, so we start camp with Laich and Nylander battling for that spot. Laich is safe cause if he losses the battle there is W spot for him on the 3rd line and we all win because it means Nylander isn't going to be waste of money in a suit in the press box. Unfortunately, my prediction is that Nylander doesn't win the battle and is a waste of money sitting the press booth. Knuble is going to be the 1st line RW going into the season, I do not see Fehr being ready to start and Clark will probably be 3rd line RW. Theodore will get every opportunity this season to start, EVERY opportunity, Varlamov will get 2 out 7 starts, why? We had 108 points last season with Theodore in net, the regular season, unless something catastrophic happens, is almost a given. Most importantly he has a movable contract come trade deadline time. As for the defense Green, Poti, Pothier, Erskine, Alzner, Carlson, Schultz and Jurcina will be battling for 6 game day spots and 2 press box spots. I think there will be a lot of shuffling of the last 4 players of this group this season. Hopefully, Alzner shines and makes it impossible for the coaching staff to press box or Hershey him.
Day 1 Lineup
Ovechkin, Backstrom, Knuble - Duh. This will probably be the best line in the league this year.
Fleichmann, Laich, Semin - Its not thrilling but it will be effective imo.
Bourque, Steckel, Clark - For now, until Fehr is ready.
Beagle, Gordon, Bradley - I wouldn't mind seeing Erskine play LW at times to free up a D spot.
Green, Schultz - Not positive Schultz is here but I think he's fine
Poti, Jurcina - They will see a lot of 1st liners
Alzner, Pothier - Not a bad 3rd pairing.
Theodore, Varlamov - Theodore will get 65% of the starts even he has a .900sv% and 2.90GAA
The Season
Can't predict this, but will be in first place, maybe comfortably, by the trade deadline.
The Trade Deadline
Here is where the fun really begins. We have zero Cap room or very little I should say. This will be sad to some (including me), but I think we move Semin here, why? He is our biggest asset hands down, and to resign him will cost us $6.5 to $7.0 per year, and I have a feeling he may head to the KHL and become their most expensive player. What can trading Semin do for us? A lot. Frees up cap space and can bring us a 2nd line C of note and a draft pick or two. The way I see it will Knuble/Fehr/2nd line C of note/a couple of draft picks be better than Semin/Kozlov? YES. Move Laich to 3rd line LW, where he belongs. Maybe a Pierre Marc-Bouchard (his bother)? Especially if Saku Koivu ends up in MIN. Theodore could also be moved for a draft pick. Then after dumping all this cash, resign Backstrom to a 10 yr deal. If we do move Theodore, get a Manny Legace/Brent Johnson type to back up Varly. Doing this saves us $3M a year or not getting anything in return for Semin.
Post Trade Deadline Line up
Ovechkin, Backstrom, Knuble - Duh
Fleischmann, Marc-Bouchard, Fehr
Laich, Steckel, Clark/Bourque
Beagle/Bourque, Gordon, Bradley/Clark
Defense is the same.
If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's authors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.
0 recs |
41 comments
Email
Print
Comments
I really just don’t get why everyone wants to move Semin. Unless we have a total turn around of our team’s defensive philosophy, our success is totally based on our offensive production. And you want to trade away our only consistant goal scorer who isn’t named Ovechkin? Doesn’t make sense.
And why in the hell do we need a notable second line center to center nobody? It’s great if you can get one to center Semin. Without Semin there, who cares? Flash has proven to be inconsistent, small, easily pushed off the puck. Fehr? Love him, but verdict is still out, only thing he has proven is that he can consistantly get hurt. Laich could center that line, would probably be just as good as having a great center on a crap line.
I understand the urge to move a player of value to gain a position of value, but it doesn’t make any sense if the you lose the the talent that you needed the new player for in the first place.
by HateOffSeason on Jul 7, 2009 7:56 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
I really just don’t get why everyone wants to move Semin.
Because at least once a game he makes me stand up from my couch and yell for joy; and at least once a game he makes me want to stab him; and my heart can’t take it.
by Gould Old Days on Jul 7, 2009 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions 9 recs
Gotcha covered. I feel the same way about Semin…
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Caps on Jul 7, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And why in the hell do we need a notable second line center to center nobody? It’s great if you can get one to center Semin. Without Semin there, who cares? Flash has proven to be inconsistent, small, easily pushed off the puck. Fehr? Love him, but verdict is still out, only thing he has proven is that he can consistantly get hurt. Laich could center that line, would probably be just as good as having a great center on a crap line.
I think the logic goes (1) having a linchpin for the second line is crucial and if it’s not Semin, it should be someone else (2) a great playmaking center makes his wingers better
by David M. Getz on Jul 7, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thats exactly what I mean. Strong down the middle. Backstrom is so much more important to the Caps than Semin. We need to get better at the pivot.
by JSchon on Jul 7, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And yet you go for Bouchard?
You’re not going to get a center of the caliber of Semin at the deadline.
by brs03 on Jul 7, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Depends, if you find a team that also needs a scoring wing a equitable trade can be made, whether its Bouchard or not, is not the point I’m trying to make.
A. Can you resign Semin
B. Whats the Cap number if you can?
If A is no and B is over $6.5+, then you have to consider moving to get something for him. Gaborik comes to mind.
by JSchon on Jul 7, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But you don’t have to move him at the deadline because he’s still going to be an RFA after the season.
by David M. Getz on Jul 7, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thats fine, but the question still remains is can you keep him away from the KHL, which I believe is our biggest competitor.
by JSchon on Jul 7, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For a team that’s going to give us what we need, the difference between acquiring him at the deadline and acquiring him around the draft, for example, isn’t going to be big. The KHL threat is the same either way for them, the only question is whether he hurts their draft position in the mean time.
Trading him at the deadline won’t help the other team because only sellers will have what we’d be after, and it won’t help us because we’d be losing one of our best playoff performers.
by brs03 on Jul 7, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I too fear the lure of the KHL with regards to #28. I know it is pure speculation, but I also think Semin may be willing to give a bit of a home team discount to stay in Washington where he has Ovechkin and familiar surroundings rather than move to a different NHL city.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Jul 7, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you can sign Semin to a 6yr 36M, get it done.
by JSchon on Jul 7, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then tack on 4 years
@ 2 mil. to reduce the cap hit. All the cool kids are doing it.
Your favorite meme is dead
by Edanger6 on Jul 7, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Too young. This only really works when the player is 30ish, so that the back years are likely retirement years.
by gfcaps fan on Jul 7, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I forget about that tidbit of information…
by JSchon on Jul 7, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wanting to and having to are two totally different things. I would like to have had Semin signed up for one more year but his contract says differently.
by JSchon on Jul 7, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
PM Bouchard is not a center, and he’s pretty overpaid.
Also, Semin isn’t going to cost 7 mil unless he stays totally healthy and scores something like 100 points this season, and even then it’d be a stretch.
And trading Semin at the deadline makes zero sense. Semin is our best trading asset, true, but this is a team that should be focused on winning now as well as keeping the future bright. If we trade Semin at the deadline we’re likely only getting futures, as no contender is going to give up a good “now” piece and no seller is going to want a big fish like Semin at the time.
If we’re dead set on trading him, it’s either this offseason or next that makes the most sense. That way we bring in a return that can help us now, probably on D, and we have time to set up a game plan rather than having to adjust to losing one of our best playoff weapons down the stretch.
by brs03 on Jul 7, 2009 8:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree with the previous two comments
And things like this make me wonder:
As for the defense Green, Poti, Pothier, Erskine, Alzner, Carlson, Schultz and Jurcina will be battling for 6 game day spots and 2 press box spots.
Let’s be real; Green, Poti, Schultz, and Juice/Pots will be on the ice every night.
Alzner may or may not be up, depends on what GMGM does with the “Mo Situation”. If Mo is here, he’s going to be playing, no doubt in my mind. Include Johnny-Boy as a 6/7 Dman and your lineup is set; no Alzner, no Carlson. Move Mo and Alzner comes up.
Carlson isn’t coming to the big show unless he has an AMAZING camp and/or injuries decimate the team, and even then you probably see Helmer and Sloan up before Carlson.
And I think Nyls beats Laich for #2C if given the opportunity, he’s just better. (When he wants to be)
by wittcap79 on Jul 7, 2009 8:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Schony, good work—a lot of it makes sense. However, the trade deadline, imo, will be where we beef up our defense. I still hold out some hope that George gets the second pivot situation in better shape before the season starts, with the trade route the absolute best option to acquire one.
from the house that Red Jesus built
by bigonetimer on Jul 7, 2009 9:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe the question to ask is this… who would most benefit from acquiring ShaMo? Those are the teams we should be scouting for 2C talent (if any) to get back in trade. Or is the consensus that no one’s shopping for his type of Dman and we’re stuck with him until the trade deadline when injuries can help the Caps move him? If that’s the route GMGM is on, then we probably (hopefully?) won’t see much of Alzner or Carlson (as Witter said above re: injuries like last year).
by war_capitals on Jul 7, 2009 10:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ShaMo by himself will not net us any C that we should put on the 2nd line.
by JSchon on Jul 7, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But he can be packaged with a prospect and a pick. That becomes an intriguing trade
by amkcaps on Jul 7, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s only feasible if you also shed salary, which changes any potential deal.
by David M. Getz on Jul 7, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We are already tight against the cap. What are our assets?
Flash? Cap hit $725K
Semin? Cap hit $4.6M
Laich? Cap hit $2.067M
The problem with trading is that our assets are our 2 line players. Trading Steckel means you have a hole at 3rd line C. I don’t see us trading a defensemen other than ShaMo, and like I said he will not net us a 2nd line C, would ShaMo and Flash? I don’t think it would. Total cap hit would be $2.6M
by JSchon on Jul 7, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trading Steckel means you have a hole at 3rd line C.
Boyd Gordon begs to differ.
by David M. Getz on Jul 7, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe Gordon does, but I dont. I like Gordon but he isnt Steckel, the size is the big difference.
by JSchon on Jul 7, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed that Gordo at 3C is a stretch.
The underlying theme to everything going forward, roster-wise, is that there needs to be a minimization of guys playing in roles for which they’re ill-suited. I’d rather see Laich as a 3L than as a 2C, for example, because if he’s at 2C, that’s likely two players out of their best roles – him and whomever fills in on 3L, versus one ill-fitting 2C (Nylander/Aucoin/whomever) and a maximized third line.
Getting the most out of players means putting them where they can best succeed, and, in the long-run, that’s how you win, imo.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Jul 7, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I used capgeek.com and took a couple wild guesses for some of the RFA’s and came up with the following roster. Ignore the line formatting, that is Cap Geek’s doing.
FORWARDS
Alexander Ovechkin ($9.5m) / Michael Nylander ($4.9m) / Alexander Semin ($4.6m)
Mike Knuble ($2.8m) / Chris Clark ($2.6m) / Brooks Laich ($2.1m)
Matt Bradley ($1.0m) / Nicklas Backstrom ($0.8m) / * Eric Fehr ($0.8m)
- Boyd Gordon ($0.8m) / Tomas Fleischmann ($0.7m) / Dave Steckel ($0.7m)
- Chris Bourque ($0.7m)
DEFENSEMEN
Mike Green ($5.2m) / Tom Poti ($3.5m)
Brian Pothier ($2.5m) / John Erskine ($1.2m)
- Milan Jurcina ($1.2m) / Karl Alzner ($0.9m)
- Jeff Schultz ($0.8m)
GOALTENDERS
Jose Theodore ($4.5m) / Simeon Varlamov ($0.8m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
ROSTER: 22; PAYROLL: $53.035m; CAP ROOM: $3.765m ADDITIONAL BONUSES: $2.450m.
Cap room – bonuses = $1.315 million
Even if we assume every bonus eligible player meets all of their bonuses, the above roster has $1.315 million leftover. That should be ample room to make a move or two at the trade deadline without shedding too much salary.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Jul 7, 2009 11:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So thats assuming we get rid of ShaMo. How does that happen exactley? And what is the salary that we get in return?
by amkcaps on Jul 7, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
in the scenario above, ShaMo gets traded for draft pick or two. If we assume ShaMo reups for one more year at no raise
FORWARDS
Alexander Ovechkin ($9.5m) / Michael Nylander ($4.9m) / Alexander Semin ($4.6m)
Mike Knuble ($2.8m) / Chris Clark ($2.6m) / Brooks Laich ($2.1m)
Matt Bradley ($1.0m) / Nicklas Backstrom ($0.8m) / * Boyd Gordon ($0.8m)
- Eric Fehr ($0.8m) / Tomas Fleischmann ($0.7m) / Dave Steckel ($0.7m)
- Chris Bourque ($0.7m)
DEFENSEMEN
Mike Green ($5.2m) / Tom Poti ($3.5m)
Brian Pothier ($2.5m) / * Shaone Morrisonn ($2.0m)
John Erskine ($1.2m) / * Milan Jurcina ($1.2m) - Jeff Schultz ($0.8m)
GOALTENDERS
Jose Theodore ($4.5m) / Simeon Varlamov ($0.8m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
ROSTER: 22; PAYROLL: $54.035m; CAP ROOM: $2.765m ADDITIONAL BONUSES: $1.650m
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Jul 7, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
assuming my math is correct (bear in mind I am a marketing guy...)
assuming the NHL trade deadline in 2010 is 6 weeks before the end of the season, that would be 42 days of daily cap hit calculations.
1,315,000/42 = daily cap hit of $31,309.
with the NHL season lasting 187 days last season, 1.315 million at the trade deadline is the same as a season long cap hit of $5,854,783.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Jul 7, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
just realized I wasn’t clear above.
If the Caps have 1.315 million at the trade deadline, they can add over 5.5 million in salary cap hits for the duration of the season in deadline deals.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Jul 7, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not counting whatever we have to use in injury callups. Hopefully there won’t be as bloody many of those this year.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jul 8, 2009 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
semin is too valuable to lose. without him, Caps are basically a one line offensive team. but, backstrom is a must sign and semin would be more of a luxury to keep.
the question is what would be get back and would it be better on the cap?
also remember ovi and semin are best friends. im sure he would take 5 or 6 mil to stay
by hockeyman33 on Jul 7, 2009 1:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Let’s all hope it’s a combination of his friendship w/ Ovi AND a Cup contending squad that keeps #28 here. I know he’s enigmatic and occassionally frustrating, but I swear the first time he’s on some other team and lights us up, there better not be one iota of whining over here… : ]
I personally think we can make him a decent offer and explain just how not-green that grass on the other side is. That’s all GMGM can do. If he wants to ruin his career by going somewhere that no one likes him, over a fist-full of dollars, then so be it. I’m not so sure I would call this team a Cup contender without his offensive punch, though. Both he and the Caps would lose something there.
I agree though, Backstrom’s the guy we can’t lose if it came down to the two of them. Hopefully Backstrom’s contract figure includes a Semin discount and vice-versa (4-5 yrs?). I don’t advocate signing either to the ridiculously long term that they signed Ovi to. Just in case… knocks on wood
by war_capitals on Jul 7, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Surprised no one has brought up Theodore or Varlamov in the comments here. This is a bit of wishful thinking, but the fact remains: Varlamov became the starter in the playoffs, and I see no reason why he won’t be the starter in the regular season. Of course we need to go through training camp, and “everyone has to prove their worth” etc, but let’s look at this realistically:
Theodore was inconsistent for most of the season. He completely bombed against a terrible offense in the playoffs. He’s not the Hart trophy goalie he once was, and the coach obviously has no confidence in him. Sure, he had one of his better seasons in the W column, but you can thank Ovechkin & crew for that, not him.
Varlamov is young, which is exactly what Boudreau likes. He’s got conditioning issues, but nothing that can’t be dealt with if you manage him and Theodore properly. I’m not suggesting the kid starts 70 games, but even 50 or 55 is realistic. We all know his skill set, and it’s obvious he is the future.
Give Theodore his shot, sure, but who wants a repeat of last season?
by :hsughrofl: on Jul 10, 2009 12:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’d happily take a repeat of the last regular season. And if that means Varlamov is fresh for the playoffs, even better.
by Gould Old Days on Jul 10, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we still won 50 games
mostly without the help of varly….
by twistedlogic on Jul 13, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
…i think that’s twisted logic on your part.
by Natty Bumppo on Jul 15, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
68 | 45 | 14 | 9 | 99 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
67 | 28 | 27 | 12 | 68 |
|
Atlanta
|
67 | 28 | 29 | 10 | 66 |
|
Florida
|
67 | 28 | 29 | 10 | 66 |
|
Carolina
|
68 | 28 | 32 | 8 | 64 |
(updated 3.14.2010 at 9:01 AM EDT)
The Vault
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Sunday's Three Stars: Backstrom leads comeback; Downie slew-foot?
- Why Alex Ovechkin won't receive an automatic suspension
- Video: Ovechkin gets game misconduct; Milbury defends him
- Video: Don Cherry calls Cooke 'gutless' poster boy for NHL critics
- Saturday's Three Stars: Pronger's heroics, Bryz blanks Canes
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
