Of Age and Experience
When the Washington Capitals opened the 2008-09 season in Atlanta, the players who dressed that night had an average age of 28.3 years. Playing through the season, the average age lowered a bit due to injuries, benchings and other personnel decisions, and when it was all said and done, the average age of a 2008-09 Cap was 27.3 years1.
Heading into the 2009-10 season, the core of the team is still very much in tact, one season more experienced and one year older. And yet, the team itself isn't aging much at all. In fact, there's a good chance that the team the Caps ice on Opening Night 2009 (in Boston on October 1) will be even younger than the team that lost Game 7 against Pittsburgh (average age: 27.6 years old). Regulars gone from last season's roster include 39-year-old Sergei Fedorov, 37-year-old Donald Brashear, 34-year-old Viktor Kozlov, 32-year-old Brent Johnson and, for all intents and purposes, 37-year-old Michael Nylander. New(ish) arrivals include 37-year-old Mike Knuble, 34-year-old Brendan Morrison, 21-year-old Simeon Varlamov and, in all likelihood, 20-year-old Karl Alzner (you can add 23-year-old Chris Bourque to the mix as well, if you like). The result of these changes is that an 11-forward/7-defensemen Opening Night lineup reflective of the above would have an average age of 27.2 years old.
From a production standpoint, the Caps are incredibly youth-heavy, with 78.0% of their 2008-09 goals coming from players who were 25 years old or younger on February 1 (by contrast, 53.9% of Pittsburgh's goals, 52.3% of Philly's and 50.0% of Boston's were scored by sub-26-year-olds). In other words, the Caps are shedding older, less productive players as their core group of players enter their respective primes. What remains is a young (relatively, at least), but somewhat experienced and accomplished group. Defensmen Mike Green and Jeff Schultz (with an average age of 23.3 years old when the season opens) have already combined to play 440 NHL games. Alex Ovechkin (who turns 24 a couple of weeks before the season starts) has more career playoff goals than Markus Naslund, Dany Heatley and Mike Knuble Joe Thornton have. Simeon Varlamov is already in the top 25 for playoff games played by a goalie since the lockout. Nicklas Backstrom, at 21, has played in more playoff games (and has more playoff goals and points) in his career than Marc Savard or Olli Jokinen have. And so on.
But do the Caps have enough experience, especially on the blueline? The top six defensemen for last year's Champion Penguins had played a combined 3,052 NHL regular season games by the time the playoffs rolled around. The Red Wings' D-corps that won the Cup the year before had played 4,439 games (even if you swap out Chris Chelios for Brett Lebda, that number is 3,221). The 2007-08 Ducks group had 3,023 games. By comparison, last year's Caps' playoff rearguards had just 2,358 games of regular season NHL experience heading into the playoffs and that's not just the top six - that's all of 'em (and more than 30% of those games belong to Tom Poti). With Karl Alzner and John Carlson on the horizon - talented as they may be - this group may be losing experience on the whole as fast as it gains it.
So while the question of whether the Caps have enough experience is one that likely won't be answered until next April, May or June, they're certainly still relatively green, particularly on the backline. While everyone is clamoring for the team to add a physical presence among the defensemen, the greater blueline need is probably in experience, and not just in what a veteran defenseman contributes in his play, but also in helping to develop the younger rearguards on the team - Brendan Witt and Sergei Gonchar had Calle Johansson and Joe Reekie. Who do Mike Green and Jeff Schultz have? Shaone Morrisonn's 350 games?
The Caps are a young and talented team, and they look to remain a young and talented team for some time. That's a good thing. But at some point, they may need to add a bit of been-there-done-that to get to the next level and truly contend for a Championship.
1Average age for the season was calculated by taking the age of each player as of February 1, 2009, multiplying it by the number of games he played, and dividing the grand total for all Caps players by the number of man-games played.
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So…Mo and Juice for Adam Foote?
"Yes, It is a 'Beautiful Game.' It's because we see something meaningful that we hope to someday, somehow, see in ourselves."
Ooh, interesting idea. Deadline deal?
Colorado would probably want more back, but I’d be really interested to see what it would take to make something like that happen.
I’d presume that Foote doesn’t feel like being in a rebuild, he’s going to be a UFA next year and the money (barring a weird arb ruling) pretty much works out.
"Yes, It is a 'Beautiful Game.' It's because we see something meaningful that we hope to someday, somehow, see in ourselves."
by Bald Pollack on Jul 28, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I would think the Caps could probably do better than that for Mo and Juice, but I think Colorado would jump all over that unless their fans would revolt.
The only thing is, Mo and Juice with both be UFAs. If they don’t have any playoff hopes at that point (and they probably won’t unless they get a miracle season from a few players) then what value are two impending UFAs really? The Caps would likely have to throw in something with longer term value, even if it’s only a pick or something.
From a salary perspective the Avs could slightly overpay Juice and keep him, some other team may severely overpay for Mo come next year (he’s in a decent UFA class next year), or the Avs could throw money at him with the presumption that Brett Clark leaves. From an outside point of view, it seems like they don’t have anyone who could step in immediately next year from an organizational perspective. Mo and Juice could become well-paid transition help, with an eye towards whatever long-term potential Juice has. Toss in a third or a second and it could work, though it’s just random pondering.
"Yes, It is a 'Beautiful Game.' It's because we see something meaningful that we hope to someday, somehow, see in ourselves."
by Bald Pollack on Jul 28, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Its July, you areexcusedbored.
That’s about right.
"Yes, It is a 'Beautiful Game.' It's because we see something meaningful that we hope to someday, somehow, see in ourselves."
by Bald Pollack on Jul 28, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree that they could use them, but I don’t see anyway it gets done without adding something like a pick (as you suggest) unless they really like Mo or Jurcina. Either of them are guys they could sign as UFAs, so they’d probably need a future piece as well.
Probably wouldn’t be too expensive though.
Could be, the UFA angle did not occur to me. Unclear whether Mo and Juice would rather have money and minutes or a shot at a cup at this point in their careers, but I agree that they would probably want something longer term. I’m not sure what Foote is worth at this point – haven’t seen him play much in years.
Great post JP. Agreed that a solid vet with real winning experience could make a big impact here. At the deadline, if its possible and things are well elsewhere, I’d love to see Morrisonn and/or Jurcina replaced by someone with some playoff history (who’s likely to be available at the deadline?). Either of them, while useful pieces, could be soon pushed out by younger, potentially better players in Schultz, Alzner, and Carlson.
Poti and Pothier are good, but it seems like we could use a vet that knows how to play a physical/gritty game as well since that’s not really something we’re swimming in.
At the deadline, if its possible and things are well elsewhere, I’d love to see Morrisonn and/or Jurcina replaced by someone with some playoff history (who’s likely to be available at the deadline?).
Just to throw out some names: Pavel Kubina, Adam Foote, Adrian Aucoin, Brett Clark.
Clark (32) and Foote (37) were lousy last year — Foote may be done. I’d rather take Scott Hannan (30) from Colorado.
Here’s some info on the Colorado blue line (with Liles (28) and Salei (34) thrown in for good measure):
http://www.capgeek.com/charts.php?Team=12&salary_cap_mil=56&salary_cap_thou=8
http://www.milehighhockey.com/2009/5/14/874077/final-grade-scott-hannan
http://www.milehighhockey.com/2009/6/10/895396/final-grade-adam-foote
http://www.milehighhockey.com/2009/5/4/860447/final-grade-brett-clark
http://www.milehighhockey.com/2009/5/1/859105/final-grade-john-michael-liles
http://www.milehighhockey.com/2009/5/18/877871/final-grade-ruslan-salei
by Gould Old Days on Jul 28, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually think they’ll be OK next year. Backstrom will get a 3-4 million dollar raise; Semin more like 2-3 million because his salary is already pretty high. Steckel will probably get a million dollar raise. Fehr, Gordon, Flash, and Schultz are all RFAs and may earn an extra 2-3 million between them if they all have great years. That’s about 10 million
Theodore’s contract will end. That’s 4.5 Million. Pothier and both Morrison(n)s will be UFAs. That’s another 6 Million. And Nylander’s NMC ends, so his nearly 5 million cap hit comes off the books. So that’s 15 million off the books.
Of course, the UFAs will need to be replaced. Theo can be replaced for cheap with a career backup if either Varlamov or Neuvirth are ready. Alzner and Carlson should be ready to take the spaces vacated by Pothier and Morrisonn if they haven’t already joined the team. Which leaves only the second line center position to be filled (again) next offseason.
So yeah, I think the Caps can afford Hannan next year if they move one or two defensemen (Mo and/or Juice) to get him.
by Gould Old Days on Jul 28, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Cap goes down too. Semin I doubt gets a 2-3 million raise because of durability. And maybe a more pressing need is a bona-fide #2 C after BMo.
by red army line on Jul 28, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Cap goes down too.
That was my biggest conern. If Gould Old Days’ estimates are accurate, the Caps might gain 5 million in cap space but early estimates have the cap going down 5-7 million.
Can they use that 5% inflator again next year, or was that a one-time allowance? That won’t prevent the cap from going down anyway, but it could soften it.
I made a point of watching Foote a fair bit last season. He was amazingly efficient, and a pillar in the defensive storm…til he got blown up.
I even commented here or on CI that our D-men should watch the Avalanche – Canucks game on Nov 12 (I think that was it) as required defensive homework.
Watching Foote is when I also formed the opinion we want McLeod on offense if we could get him for the right price
One guy that came to mind for me that has a lot of experience – but may not have anything left – is Sergei Zubov. He’s a UFA and, although quite old, has 164 games of playoff experience, 2 rings, and, of course, is Russian. He’s not physical but definitely fits the grizzled veteran mold otherwise.
I think a trade is more likely than a UFA signing, and it probably all depends on whether Omsk can convince Nyls to come over, but a guy like that could be an asset, assuming he can still go.
I think Zubov is done, but a guy in a similar mold who may not be is Mathieu Schneider.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
He’d also work for me. I would think a guy like that might be interested in a one year deal to play for a contender in front of the best crowd in the NHL.
in front of the best crowd in the NHL.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. VC crowd has a long way to go before it’s in that discussion. You need more than noise and a unified color to get into that class of fandom.
Ok, a bit of a bold claim. Trust me, I remember how awful it was even 2-3 years ago, let alone how mediocre it was even before the firesale. But where can you find a better home crowd these days? Honest question. Calgary? Chicago? Philly? Montreal?
Montreal is a pretty sweet city to see a game. I’ve only been once and it was Leafs/Habs, possibly the coolest hockey environment I’ve ever been in. Never have been, nor will be, in PHI to see a game. Haven’t been to CGY or CHI, though I’d love to. What takes the VC crowd down a notch, IMO, is the general lack of hockey knowledge. Cities where the fans know the game better are more fun because you don’t have ridiculous “ref you suck” chants over an icing call or something like that. VC isn’t the worst, and the hockey knowledge should grow with time (if the fans stick with the Caps), but that’s my main complaint.
MTL/TOR must have been a blast – jealous. Fair enough as to the hockey knowledge. While I think the fans in DC are actually pretty good as far as that goes, it’s not going to be the same as it is in Montreal or Calgary where the fans know every rule by heart. But I can say that I have heard some absolutely ridiculous discussions of hockey and its rules at MSG, an arena of an original six team. I think it’s kind of inevitable in an American arena, especially in a place with a hot new team.
For me, pretty much the only criteria are how loud the building gets and how excited the fans get (though they are pretty much the same thing). I can say with confidence that the current VC crowd is the best I’ve ever been a part of as far as that goes, though I’ve only been to a handful of other arenas for games (STL, DAL, NYR, OTT, ATL). Good regular season games at VC these days are like playoff games from ‘98, and playoff games are a whole ’nother level. And not to be too self-congratulatory (I wasn’t there), but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a crowd give the kind of ovation at the end of a blowout that the VC crowd gave the Caps at the end of Game 7 vs. the Pens this year.
Anyway, if anyone has experienced an awesome crowd elsewhere, let’s hear it.
I agree that VC is a great environment, I’m not disputing that. I specifically didn’t mention NYR, but NYC is a different sports environment in general. Obviously Canadian cities are going to be on a different level; I think VC has got a lot of potential but a ways to go. I’ve also been to several NYR/NYI games, which are an amazing spectacle from a neutral perspective.
Great post as always JP. Couldn’t agree more.
And perhaps just as (if not more) concerning for me, is that this D corp isn’t necessarily getting the “bang-for-the-buck” in the games it has played. There is still no real veteran “teacher/mentor” back there for the Schultzs, Alzners, Carlsons…and even Green’s. That means these kids will have to make more mistakes in general to learn important lessons, as well, the “tricks of the trade” may never be learned by some of these guys. Why the idea was so obvious for Fedorov and the Russians, but is lost on the D-corp is besides me. Come on George, bring in Zubov or even Cheerios for a year, play em 50 – 60 games and let their patina rub-off on Schultz for a little while.
Related:
Chockster’s FanPost, “”http://www.japersrink.com/2009/6/29/930023/chelios-a-fedorov-for-our-d">Chelios: A Fedorov for Our D."
Great Post
Admittedly, the back line is young, but it is, at the same time progressing, despite the arbitration today with Juice.
Poti is someone who can teach these guys how to handle adversity. Remember, he played for the Rangers, and the fans really didn’t like him much (they still don’t, esp. after Game 6 last year). Pothier can certainly teach the young guys about perserverance.
The Caps defense right now has a nice mix of veterans (Poti, Pother), grit (Erskine), youth (Alzner, Green, Schultz) that there’s a lot to look forward to this coming spring.
Let's go Caps!
Experience is good, but not always necessary. Some players just get it done. Philadelphia was “green” in 07-08, but they still made the Conference Finals. From what I read on the net Carlson looks composed in pressure situations. Green is also, when healthy.
Those teams you mentioned also knew how to implement a defensive structure every once in a while. That cuts down on mistakes and also allows for quick turnarounds and more offensive zone possession.
The top six defensemen for last year’s Champion Penguins had played a combined 3,052 NHL regular season games by the time the playoffs rolled around. The Red Wings’ D-corps that won the Cup the year before had played 4,439 games…. By comparison, last year’s Caps’ playoff rearguards had just 2,358 games of regular season NHL experience heading into the playoffs and that’s not just the top six – that’s all of ’em (and more than 30% of those games belong to Tom Poti).
I found that interesting so I took a look at playoff experience….Only Poti and Pothier didn’t make the playoff debut in 2007-08 for the Caps blueline. So Washington had 75 career playoff games among their top 6 defensemen coming into the 2009 playoffs (with 41% of those games belonging to Poti).
For comparisons sake, Pittsburgh’s top 6 defensemen had 228 games of playoff experience entering the 2009 playoffs. 36% of that belonged to their veteran outlier in Gonchar, but no Penguin had less than Kris Letang’s 16 games. That would tie him with Washington’s 2nd most experienced defenseman.
Obviously Washington could add some vet at the end of his rope like a Chris Chelios and look a lot better in these comparisons without actually adding much to the ice but I just found it interesting the point of the matter, how young and green Washington’s defense was and still could be considered when guys like Alzner and Carlson come along.
Pensburgh.com -- it's like the Max Talbot of blogs*
*not just because we only work for 12 minutes a night
Yep. Adding age/experience for age/experience sake (i.e. Chelios) doesn’t make sense. But adding a vet or two who can still play may be not only helpful, but essential.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
The growth from within should be beneficial too.
The Caps defense which had combined for 75 career NHL playoff games before 2009 got another 84 games under their collective belts with the 2009 playoffs. Obviously there’s always room for improvement and guys may play different roles, but they ought to be better if for nothing more than the organic internal growth (a statement I’m confident you’d agree with).
Pensburgh.com -- it's like the Max Talbot of blogs*
*not just because we only work for 12 minutes a night
Sure. But I’m not convinced (at all) that gets you all the way there.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
So, signing Bryan Helmer doesn't qualify?
I’d think about Marty Skoula: Pretty durable, stay at home type, under 30 and affordable. Has a ring from the Avs in 2001 (and even has a playoff game with the Hershey Bears on his resume).
from the house that Red Jesus built
whoa there, care to support that statement? The guy has averaged almost 20 minutes a night for the last 4 years on a pretty fair defensive team. Toss out the +/- for the last two years (after all, I believe you’re among the cadre of people who don’t put much stock in it anyway), and you have a very solid S@H defenseman with a respectable playoff resume of nearly 80 games.
from the house that Red Jesus built
Plus minus has some value, especially when you’re comparing teammates – and Skoula was last among defensemen on his team each of the last two years, playing against mostly average competition.
I’d say Skoula’s not bad, but he’s not that much different (or better) than the guys the Caps already have.
His goals against numbers aren’t very good even though his competition was somewhat average. He was their worst regular Dman in that regard 5-on-5.
For his PK time he got low quality competition despite good minutes… confirmed 2nd unit guy? Tough to interpret that. He was middle of the pack in goals against, but then again the only defensive guy he was better than was Burns (I don’t consider Zidlicky a good defensive Dman, but YMMV).
For a purely defensive Dman, he’s very “meh.” He was the least impressive among a pretty lackluster D corps. +/-, though flawed, holds some value here in reinforcing this.
And “trapping team” <> “fair defensive team” or, rather, <> “good defensemen.” In fact I’d say it’s closer to the opposite, you trap because your D can’t keep up on their own.
I think you actually trap because of your forwards, not your D. Scott Stevens and Scott Neidermayer played on the most famous trapping team of all time. You trap when you don’t have the skill to score with other skilled teams, not because your D can’t hack it.
Yeah, but compare that to Hanlon’s Caps, or the Wild, or the Blue Jackets of a few years ago. They don’t/didn’t have a Stevens. Now, they weren’t full of offensive talent either, but I think that’s what makes them focus on playing a defensive game, not on trapping specifically.
I think the CBJ, MIN, and probably even the Hanlon Caps were all deeper at D than at F. My theory holds.
then again the only defensive guy he was better than was Burns
this Burns fellow, he could make the Canadian Olympic team, no? You’re not really reinforcing your point.
from the house that Red Jesus built
Burns played at forward for a good amount of time as well, though, and he’s got plenty of redeeming factors that excuse the poor goals against on the PK. He also had better competition than Skoula by a decent amount.
What should the contention be, then? That he’s a good player despite not having good numbers no matter how you slice it? That his minutes being high makes him good despite him not being all that effective in those minutes? You can’t just toss out all his negatives just because he gets ice time.
Burns is a hell of a player, but he’s a forward in the same way John Erskine is a forward.
You can’t just toss out all his negatives just because he gets ice time.
Jacques Lemaire is a pretty good judge of talent, no? I think you can tell a lot about where a player fits in your system by what kind of minutes he is given. The premise of the thread (correctly) states we lack an abundance of experienced rearguards, and given the cap sitch we face yet again, we’re not exactly going to be stroking a huge check, if at all, for this “luxury” As far as UFA’s go, Skoula does fit the criteria, and fwiw, I think he’s a lot better than you’re giving him credit for.
from the house that Red Jesus built
Burns played a significant amount of time at forward due to injuries/lack of forward depth this past season. He was drafted as a forward for instance, so no, he’s not a forward in the same way Erskine is a forward.
My argument is that he’s not good. He has experience, but if he’s not a quality dman then what’s the point of adding him?
I think Lemaire worked with what he had, and trusted the system to take care of the rest. The icetime suggests he had a role or reasonable importance at ES, but the numbers suggest he wasn’t really effective in that role. I imagine his minutes would have dropped if there were better health in Minny (for instance, if Burns hadn’t been required to play at F so often) but their situation wasn’t exactly rosy this year. He wasn’t a key PK option either.
Look at who he had more minutes than, and tell me that makes his minutes look good. Minny wasn’t in a good situation this year and he had a role to fill, that’s basically it.
I stand by what I said before. He’s a very “meh” player, not a good one. He’s got lots of playoff games but experience is only as good as the player providing it.
I'm a little scared to suggest this, but...
Brendan Witt? He’s physical, he’s experienced (though no Cup ring…), he’s (relatively) affordable @ 3mil through 2011, and the rebuilding Islanders would probably be more than happy to take a pick/prospect/Mo or Jurcina off our hands.
Plus, I seem to remember his reason for leaving DC was for a shot at a championship… I’d say we have a better chance of that then NYI does…
Or what about Rob Blake? He’s a UFA next summer with a cap hit of $3.5, he won a Cup with the Avalanche a few years back, didn’t he? And I seem to remember reading that the Sharks are looking to retool their roster.
by Murshawursha on Jul 28, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Witt is tough, but he’s dumber than dirt. I’d rather have a guy with a little less physicality and a lot more hockey smarts. The Isles might be a good team to target in trades, but not for Witt.
by grapejoos on Jul 28, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agree 100%. Witt is a step backwards. I’d rather have Mo or Juice than Witt.
by Gould Old Days on Jul 28, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d rather have Mo or Juice with Witt’s ’stache.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
The rest of the comments aside and there are and will be many that make good points there can be no argument that at both Goaltender (if it’s not Theodore and it’s Varlamov) and on the Blueline, if the Caps were to win the Cup this coming year they would be outlyers both on the Blueline and in the net relative to age and experience before their first Stanley Cup win…
by markbona-capsfan99 on Jul 28, 2009 3:45 PM EDT reply actions





































