Where The New Guys Fit In, Part I
by J.P. on Jul 15, 2009 11:30 AM EDT
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It's impossible to guess at exactly what sort of contributions Mike Knuble and Brendan Morrison will provide the 2009-10 Capitals - "veteran leadership" and "grit" are impossible to quantify, and goals and assists are unpredictable.
But it's not difficult to look back on what these two have brought to their respective teams in the past, and HockeyAnalysis.com does exactly that, by computing individual players' offensive and defensive ratings and an "overall contribution" for each player. For this exercise it's not critically important to go into detail as to how those metrics are defined, but as points of reference, Alex Ovechkin was second in overall contribution (Nicklas Backstrom was third), Mike Green was fourth among defensemen in contribution (but the top blueliner in overall rating), and Alexander Semin was first among all skaters in offensive rating (and third in overall rating). In other words, "rating" here doesn't factor in total ice time, while "contribution" does... and all of these measures recognize the dominance of the Caps' Young guns.
With that in mind, we'll take a look at the offensive ratings of the Caps' top 14 forwards from a season ago, but we'll throw in Knuble's and Morrison's ratings in each of the past three years as well:
| ALEXANDER SEMIN | 1.70 |
| ALEXANDER OVECHKIN | 1.54 |
| NICKLAS BACKSTROM | 1.47 |
| SERGEI FEDOROV | 1.37 |
| BROOKS LAICH | 1.35 |
| MIKE KNUBLE (2006-07) | 1.30 |
| VIKTOR KOZLOV | 1.25 |
| ERIC FEHR | 1.17 |
| MIKE KNUBLE (2007-08) | 1.15 |
| TOMAS FLEISCHMANN | 1.14 |
| MIKE KNUBLE (2008-09) | 1.13 |
| MICHAEL NYLANDER | 1.09 |
| BRENDAN MORRISON (2006-07) |
1.09 |
| BRENDAN MORRISON (2007-08) | 1.08 |
| BRENDAN MORRISON (2008-09) | 0.88 |
| DAVID STECKEL | 0.80 |
| BOYD GORDON | 0.74 |
| MATT BRADLEY | 0.71 |
| CHRIS CLARK | 0.65 |
| DONALD BRASHEAR | 0.43 |
Now, there's a big difference between the 2008-09 Washington Capitals and the 2008-09 Dallas Stars and Anaheim Ducks, the 2006-07 Philadelphia Flyers, and so on. But raise your hand if you like seeing even a healthy Brendan Morrison rated below last year's Michael Nylander, or Mike Knuble's last two seasons closely resembling Tomas Fleischmann's offensive production rate. Yeah, me neither.
Moving on to the defensive side of things, here's how last year's Caps forwards stand, again with Knuble and Morrison thrown in:
| MATT BRADLEY | 1.35 |
| DONALD BRASHEAR | 1.35 |
| BRENDAN MORRISON (2008-09) |
1.28 |
| CHRIS CLARK | 1.16 |
| ALEXANDER SEMIN | 1.15 |
| DAVID STECKEL | 1.15 |
| BRENDAN MORRISON (2007-08) | 1.15 |
| NICKLAS BACKSTROM | 1.11 |
| ERIC FEHR | 1.10 |
| MIKE KNUBLE (2008-09) | 1.08 |
| MIKE KNUBLE (2007-08) | 1.03 |
| SERGEI FEDOROV | 1.01 |
| BOYD GORDON | 0.99 |
| MIKE KNUBLE (2006-07) | 0.99 |
| BRENDAN MORRISON (2006-07) | 0.94 |
| ALEXANDER OVECHKIN | 0.90 |
| BROOKS LAICH | 0.90 |
| TOMAS FLEISCHMANN | 0.90 |
| MICHAEL NYLANDER | 0.87 |
| VIKTOR KOZLOV | 0.79 |
While it's odd to see Donald Brashear near the top of any list that ostensibly measures how well a player performed in a given area, he did have the lowest GAON/60 at five-on-five of any regular Caps forward this past season, so it makes at least some sense. What jumps out here, of course, is how high Morrison's 2008-09 season appears on the list (and before you claim Anaheim or Dallas played solid defense, neither of those teams finished in the top half of the NHL in goals allowed, and both might have finished behind the Caps, had the Caps not laid that monster egg in Game 82). That Mike Knuble was a higher-rated player defensively than Boyd Gordon last season raises an eyebrow (granted, Gordon's , but overall what we see in Knuble and Morrison are two very sound defensive forwards.
Combining the offensive and defensive ratings we get an overall rating that looks like this:
| ALEXANDER SEMIN | 1.45 |
| NICKLAS BACKSTROM | 1.30 |
| ALEXANDER OVECHKIN | 1.26 |
| SERGEI FEDOROV | 1.20 |
| MIKE KNUBLE (2006-07) |
1.20 |
| ERIC FEHR | 1.14 |
| BROOKS LAICH | 1.12 |
| BRENDAN MORRISON (2007-08) | 1.11 |
| MIKE KNUBLE (2008-09) | 1.10 |
| BRENDAN MORRISON (2008-09) | 1.07 |
| MATT BRADLEY | 1.04 |
| VIKTOR KOZLOV | 1.04 |
| TOMAS FLEISCHMANN | 1.03 |
| MIKE KNUBLE (2007-08) | 1.03 |
| BRENDAN MORRISON (2006-07) | 1.02 |
| DAVID STECKEL | 1.00 |
| MICHAEL NYLANDER | 0.99 |
| DONALD BRASHEAR | 0.89 |
| CHRIS CLARK | 0.89 |
| BOYD GORDON | 0.88 |
Frankly, I'd have expected a bigger gap between Knuble's and Morrison's 2008-09 seasons, but Morrison's showing here is a testament to his defensive reliability as much as anything (the question now, of course, is can he maintain some semblance of that and have a rebirth in his offensive game). That Knuble's rating is so similar to Brooks Laich's and Eric Fehr's is interesting, given the stylistic comparisons we've seen and hoped for, respectively.
Finally, pulling it all together and accounting for total ice time, here's the contribution last year's Caps got from its regulars up front, with the Knuble's and Morrison's past three seasons' contributions thrown in:
| ALEXANDER OVECHKIN | 4190.93 |
| NICKLAS BACKSTROM | 3975.28 |
| ALEXANDER SEMIN | 3079.64 |
| MIKE KNUBLE (2008-09) |
2886.26 |
| MIKE KNUBLE (2007-08) | 2834.93 |
| MIKE KNUBLE (2006-07) | 2691.81 |
| BRENDAN MORRISON (2006-07) | 2607.86 |
| BROOKS LAICH | 2607.64 |
| BRENDAN MORRISON (2008-09) | 2394.33 |
| VIKTOR KOZLOV | 2094.49 |
| TOMAS FLEISCHMANN | 1995.88 |
| MICHAEL NYLANDER | 1942.16 |
| SERGEI FEDOROV | 1906.78 |
| MATT BRADLEY | 1606.95 |
| ERIC FEHR | 1531.35 |
| DAVID STECKEL | 1462.36 |
| BRENDAN MORRISON (2007-08) | 1250.21 |
| BOYD GORDON | 1061.65 |
| DONALD BRASHEAR | 905.84 |
| CHRIS CLARK | 666.12 |
There's not a single Cap forward outside of the Young Guns who contributed more in 2008-09 than Mike Knuble has in any of his past three campaigns or than Brendan Morrison did in his last full, healthy season. Think about that for a second.
Over the past three seasons, Mike Knuble has missed just 18 regular season games, all coming in 2006-07; prior to his injury-shortened 2007-08 season, Brendan Morrison had played in every single game for the previous six seasons. The two newest Caps have been consistent contributors in the NHL because they're good players who have stayed healthy (with the obvious exception being Morrison's 2006-07 season and it's after-effects).
Maybe it's not so hard to guess what Knuble and Morrison will contribute after all.
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Cool comparison with very interesting numbers. I had no idea Laich’s offensive rating was so high.
Any hints on what part 2 will be covering stat wise?
Just because there’s a Part I doesn’t necessarily mean there’ll be a Part II.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
dude you cant disappoint me like that with your part I with no sequel thing :-)
what am i supposed to do instead of read your stuff…..work?
by twistedlogic on Jul 15, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
very interesting. i dont see how kozy is so high either. maybe skating around with backstrom and ovi. but 6th of caps on offense last year? he wasnt much of a difference maker
I’d say that just b/c Kozlov was sixth doesn’t mean that his stats were particularly good. It just serves to emphasize, I think, the lack of scoring depth this team had up front.
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I agree, and that’s part of why I’m excited about Morrison and Knuble. We’re all aware that they’re not the guys who are going to make the offense go and they’re not going to be the team’s bigger offensive threats most nights but the depth bring is sorely needed. Last season we saw far too much top six time for guys who just weren’t producing like top six players: Fedorov, Nylander, Kozlov, Flesichmann, (for the second half of the season, at least), Laich (sort of a boderline case) etc. Now the team (hopefully) won’t have that problem and it will let them give guys like Steckel, Fleischmann, and Fehr the ice time they need in the situations they need for the team to be successful.
I have to admit, though, that I read a large portion of this post as “further evidence the Capitals coaching staff doesn’t appreciate Eric Fehr”.
Agree completely. The team badly needed vets that could manufacture goals reliably, and Knuble (and perhaps BMo fits that bill). And if I’m taking a flyer on a perhaps washed up center who used to be a top-line guy elsewhere, I’m obviously picking the defensively sound BMo over the (seemingly) neverending Swedish nightmare.
I look at these guys as substitutes for Kozlov and Fedorov. Knuble strikes me as a huge upgrade over Kozlov for tangible and intangible reasons. BMo/Feds is more lateral, but the salary is extremely reasonable and I like that BMo has something to prove.
Agree with you on Fehr, who’s bringing to my mind Kevin Youkilis – produced everywhere he played in the minors, but didn’t look enough like a big leaguer, so it took him a lot longer than it ought to have to get to the big leagues.
Further agree with you on they new guys’ contributory potential. As we bemoaned, in ‘08-’09, if the Big 4 didn’t score, the Caps were real vulnerable. In the playoffs especially, the Caps just did not have the wherewithal to play a defensive game and grind out dirty goals. I particularly hope that a healthy BMo and Knuble will help the Caps break out of their zone more effectively.
What I like most is BMo’s defensive ability. On a line with Semin and Flash, having a center who actually thinks defense is going to be a signifcant plus. The more and more I see of the Morrison signing, the better I like it.
All four of the Caps’ centers (Backstrom, B-Mo, Steckel and Gordon) are excellent defensively. That should open up the game some for the wings. I’m sure Boudreau is already planning his systems around this.
by Gould Old Days on Jul 15, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d like to see the team learn the trap, you know, to implement up by 2, Game 7, Conf Finals vs PIT.
by red army line on Jul 15, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Can’t sit on a lead like you used to be able to. If you let PIT attack you and try to sit in a shell you are toast. Our roster isn’t made to sit on leads, it’s made to press.
You force the turnover and then press. And I meant like in the last min of a period, or last 2 mins of the 3rd or something. Very limited use, but it then will be effective as well.
by red army line on Jul 15, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
whenever the Caps tried to sit on a lead last season, it made me want to cry. “Oh, god, please, no no no no no! Anything but ‘trying to protect the lead’!”
Element of surprise. And the trap could be useful against better teams every now and then. Plus it teaches defense.
by red army line on Jul 15, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I spent too many years “watching” (more like trying not to fall asleep) the Wild to ever want to see the Caps go to the trap.
But you have to be careful about positioning, right? Too many times we catch the Caps out of position when they shouldn’t be
by red army line on Jul 16, 2009 5:52 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s true. I’m not saying there aren’t appropriate times to employ a trapping game, I’m just rejecting the idea that “trap” = “good defense” when it’s basically the opposite (you use the trap so that you don’t have to use a strong defensive game, they’re not the same, which means the trap isn’t going to teach anyone anything that will apply to Boudreau’s system really).
Nice work.
All FA Signings are a gamble, of course, but I do like these two guys on the Caps.
First, as mentioned, the defensive responsibility will be a nice addition. Even with the paucity of scoring depth, the ‘08-’09 Caps scored a lot. They didn’t particularly prevent a lot of goals, though. If Morrison and Knuble can help shed a few GA, they’ll be valuable contributors.
On offense, hopefully Knuble contributes to the “dirty goal” quotient. Laich was famously willing to “go to the bakery”; Clark, when healthy, would as well. Beyond that, not so many guys willing to mix it up in front. BMo might not do a whole lot more, statistically speaking, than Sir Circular. But he ought to be better at playing a style that harmonizes with the rest of the guys on the team. I hope.
Essentially, on offense they might not be getting quantitatively more than they got from Kozzy, Feds and Nylander, but it looks, on paper anyway, like they’ll be getting a better type of contribution. Particularly in the playoffs.
All this is predicated on these guys staying healthy, of course. One is kinda old, and the other has a history of injury problems, so let’s all cross our fingers. But I’d much rather have Morrisonn than Nylander, and Knuble over Kozlov.
AHHHHH! 2 and a half months till the season starts! I can’t wait that long!!!!
Seriously, pretty interesting looking at the numbers, but I’m just hoping that…
a) We get the best out of our 2 newest FA acquisitions
b) These guys are are able to “gel” with their new linemates right off the bat
I remember last season when Kozlov missed a few games and upon his return Gabby saying something to the effect of, “You can look at a guy’s numbers all you want, but the bottom line is that we need him out there because he ‘fits’ in our top line with Ovie and Backstrom…he’s a round peg in a round hole. The 3 of them play better together as a unit with him there than they do without” (paraphrasing quite a bit, but I’m sure most of you remember the quote I’m talking about). I’m just hoping that a guy like Knuble can come in and be “that guy”…and then some (because actually having the numbers to go with chemistry ain’t too shabby either!). I also feel that Morrison provides the depth at center we all know the Caps desperately needed, at the the only price we probably could have afforded—I’m optimistic about what he can bring to the table as well.
by PaintDrinkingPete on Jul 15, 2009 12:36 PM EDT reply actions
correct. green and morrisonn mark the same flyer, while knuble sets up shop. blame to AO also for not recognizing the situation.
by Natty Bumppo on Jul 15, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
When I Google “Knuble+Ovechkin” in a few months, I expect to find some much happier pics from which to choose.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Dandy analysis, JP
Thank you. Can you put Greener in that last list? Or do the stats for kept for D somehow prevent that? Just wondering.
I’d presume this is limited to the new guys’ contribution as forwards into the existing forward corps.
/legal?
"Yes, It is a 'Beautiful Game.' It's because we see something meaningful that we hope to someday, somehow, see in ourselves."
by Bald Pollack on Jul 15, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Uh, Alexander Semin is a top-five defensive player on the Caps? Ahead of David Steckel and Nicklas Backstrom? Well, we’re screwed.
I wonder if all those foolish penalties Semin took in the offensive zone count against him in the defensive or offensive ratings? Probably neither.
This is an interesting way of trying to quantify someone’s value to a team, but I’m not sure how legitimate this particular system is. Interesting to look at if nothing else.
Uh, Alexander Semin is a top-five defensive player on the Caps? Ahead of David Steckel and Nicklas Backstrom? Well, we’re screwed.
Well, he led the team in plus-minus, was out for fewer goals against in 5-on-5 and 4-on-5 situations than most players, and was one of the team’s most effective penalty killers.
I believe Boudreau was protecting Semin to some extent. Not enough to mean “the stats are totally wrong”, but enough to maybe move him down a couple of slots.
“Protecting” may be the wrong word here because there’s no doubt Semin drew some tough assignments, but I think Steckel and Gordon drew tougher assignments. I think situational TOI is an underrated stat for these purposes. Coaches are no fools — they know who its appropriate to put out there in different situations.
Anyway, I still think Semin was good. Just maybe not as good as these stats suggest.
by Gould Old Days on Jul 17, 2009 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions
No doubt. Don’t me wrong, I think Backstrom, Steckel, and Gordon are more valuable defensive players, I just think that Semin’s a much better defensive player than he gets credit for and that the fact that he came out ahead on these metrics is more indicative of that than it is of the quality of the Caps other forwards.
as others have noted, this particular tool is illuminating. He generally makes his greatest teammates better (in terms of GA/20)…clearly, we’re not going to see Sasha and Boyd playing much together though!
from the house that Red Jesus built
No one skated more and was one the ice for fewer ES goals.
"Yes, It is a 'Beautiful Game.' It's because we see something meaningful that we hope to someday, somehow, see in ourselves."
Fast facts:
I count 12 back to back games.
longest road game is 4. And we have 2 of them
Worst stretch is the month of Dec. 7 of 9 games on the road. 1@ home. 3 on the road, then back home for 1, and on the road for 4.
No Jan. 1st game in DC.
7 of 9 games in February are on the road. All are before the 13 of Feb.
Thoughts?
I was really excited when Boston, Detroit, and San Jose were slumping, we were on a roll and heading into a 9 of 10 stretch at home with a 2-loss record so far.
by red army line on Jul 15, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
RFA Update
Per Corey, Bourque and ShaMo have accepted their, Pinnozzotto signed a two-year deal. The plot thickens.
"Yes, It is a 'Beautiful Game.' It's because we see something meaningful that we hope to someday, somehow, see in ourselves."
*theirs, frak.
"Yes, It is a 'Beautiful Game.' It's because we see something meaningful that we hope to someday, somehow, see in ourselves."
by Bald Pollack on Jul 15, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
(There are schedule and RFA FanShots up on the front page now, FYI)
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
54 | 26 | 17 | 11 | 63 |
|
Washington
|
54 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
57 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
54 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 54 |
|
Carolina
|
56 | 20 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
(updated 2.12.2012 at 3:50 AM EST)
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