2008-09 Rink Wrap: Viktor Kozlov
by J.P. on Jun 5, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
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PrintFrom Alzner to Varlamov, we're taking a look at and grading the 2008-09 season for every player who laced 'em up for the Caps for a significant number of games during the campaign, with an eye towards 2009-10. Next up, Viktor Kozlov.
Viktor Kozlov
#25 / Center / Washington Capitals
6-4
232
Feb 14, 1975
14
UFA; $2,500,000 cap hit in 2008-09
5.93 rating
Key Stat: Despite the second-best five-on-five Quality of Teammates on the Caps, Kozlov finished with a team-worst minus-nine rating.
Interesting Stat: Kozlov's average time on ice per game was cut by 1:55 over a season ago, with 30 seconds of that coming on the power-play.
The Good: Let's start with the post-season, where Kozlov not only scored his long-awaited first career playoff goal, but he'd go on to score three more, have the best five-on-five GAON/60 of any forward on the team (minimum two games played) and the second-best +/-ON/60 and plus-minus of any forward, behind only Alexander Ovechkin.
Backing up a bit to the regular season, Kozlov was fifth on the team (behind the Young Guns) in points per minute of ice time (which is a little misleading, as it dings players who kill penalties), and third (behind Jeff Schultz and Karl Alzner) in fewest penalty minutes per minute of ice time. When he got the chance, he was an "excellent" producer five-on-four (though 57% of his production there came via secondary assists) and he had ten multi-point games on the season (the flip side of that coin, however, is that in he had 18 single-point and 39 scoreless outings playing largely on the top line for the third-highest scoring team in hockey).
The Bad: After playing approximately 55% of his even strength shifts on a line with Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom and managing the fewest points per game in a season since his miserable campaign in New Jersey coming out of the lockout, Viktor Kozlov has officially flunked out of the Dainius Zubrus School of Statistical Inflation (right, Headmaster Clark?). In fact, Kozlov finished eighth among the team's regular forwards in points per sixty minutes of five-on-five time, has only scored fewer goals in a season four times in his career (and in three of those seasons he played fewer games) and has only once had fewer points in a season in which he played as many games as he did in 2008-09. He had as many goals in the playoffs as he had from January 1st through the end of the regular season (in 34 games), his shots per game were down, and he had fewer game-winning goals for the Caps this past season than Shaone Morrisonn, Donald Brashear or Alexandre Giroux. And while he was busy not putting up points, Kozzie was posting the worst GAON/60 on the team (minimum four games played). Oh, and "Kozlov the shootout specialist?" One-for-five.
There may have been a time when Kozlov was the Caps' Lebowski Rug, but that time seems to have passed.
The Vote: Rate Kozlov below on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best) based on his performance relative to his potential and your expectations for the season - if he had the best year you could have imagined him having, give him a 10; if he more or less played as you expected he would, give him a 5 or a 6; if he had the worst year you could have imagined him having, give him a 1.
The Discussion: With Kozlov all but assuredly not returning to the Caps in 2009-10, where does "first-line right wing" rate among the team's needs? Is the man to fill Kozlov's skates currently in the organization? If not, what type of player (or specific player) should the Caps be looking at to fill that role?
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“…where does “first-line right wing” rate among the team’s needs? Is the man to fill Kozlov’s skates currently in the organization? If not, what type of player (or specific player) should the Caps be looking at to fill that role?
Eric Fehr might have been given a long look at that job, but if he’s out until November, the club might turn to a reprise of Chris Clark in that role. But his production, even when he’s been in the lineup, has been so “off” from that of a couple of years ago, the team might turn to…
…uh…
…hmmm.
I’m not liking a line of Ovechkin-Backstrom-Semin. Brooks Laich is a possibility (he had a year where he was consistent in a variety of offensive situations). Fleischmann? Dear God, no.
That job seems destined to be filled from the outside. It’d be nice to get a winger approximating Kozlov’s size, who was more inclined to use it and who gave an effort on a more consistent basis. But that’s not exactly an earth-shattering bit of wisdom.
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jun 5, 2009 7:22 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Agreed – he’s not here right now. But…
I still think 2nd line center is a higher priority – you can stick Chris Clark or DMG on the top line and they’ll still produce. But try Boyd Gordon at 2C again and… . Also, “hulking, smasking defenseman” is getting bumped further and further down the list.
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I’m beginning to think that hulking defenseman could just come from within the org – or the new assistant coach may have something to say about how we use the players we’ve already got.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Agreed. Fehr/Clark/Laich could all work on the top line, if for nothing else but to break up the “pure” perimeter game AO and Backstrom seem to fall into at times. Even more so given the AO/Backis/Semin line seems to hit the ice when Bruce feels the team needs a goal/change of pace.
As for D, the more time Erskine gets (and avoids getting concussed) he may be as close to that type of player the team gets. Honestly, not sure I am so opposed to that anymore…
by ThreePingPost on Jun 5, 2009 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Why do you think the defenseman has fallen behind 1st line RW? I agree that a 2nd line C is the top priority but is a position where you could put DMG and get production higher than a defenseman? Especially since Pittsburgh (Crosby) so completely dominated the Caps in the crease this post season?
I think the Caps’ D is good, not great. Upgradable? Definitely.
I think the Caps’ down the right side are positively atrocious (unless you count Semin as an RW), and there’s no organizational depth there. Something needs to be done at RW more desperately than on the blueline right now. IMO, the blueline could wait until the trade deadline. I’m not sure RW can.
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If you could get him for just one year, Hell yes. Teams with Hossa have gotten to the finals in each of the last two seasons.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
So what mold are you looking for in a RW this summer? A puck holder like Kozlov? A grit guy like Upshall? Where does experience fit into your logic?
I’m not sure I agree that defense can wait to the deadline, though I understand your thought processes. The deadline always seems to require a premium for marginal players (see Morris, D.), especially for defensemen.
The deadline always seems to require a premium for marginal players (see Morris, D.), especially for defensemen.
This is a good point. I guess I could see a greater need in acquiring a D in the offseason and going bargain hunting on RW (but I still think 2C is the top priority).
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I know I’m going against popular opinion here, but is hulking d-man what we really need? Erskine is here next year. If we resign Jurcina, he is here, and probably fairly cheaply.
If you look at that, we have overly offensive D in Green (which is not a problem), hard hitting D in Jurcina, hard hitting D in Erskine. All three of these guys need to play opposite a D man that can skate well. With Morissonn probably gone, that leaves Poti, Pothier, and probably Alzner. I’m still not sold on Pothier being able to play injury free for a season, that long return scared me. Our bigger need might be a good skating D man.
by HateOffSeason on Jun 5, 2009 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, and as for type of player. Must have grit, work ethic and a bit of offensive ability (sorry, Brads, two outta three ain’t gonna get you on the top line here).
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It seems likethe Capsevery team but one each year always has some huge glaring need.
Fixed that for you.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Jun 5, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Even the Red Wings did until the playoffs.
by red army line on Jun 6, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
If anything, it serves to point out that the Caps have holes — more than you might expect for a team that finished with 108 points. That’s a reflection of how talented the skill guys are, but when the playoffs roll around, and the skill guys are having trouble getting open space, you need others to step up. And that’s where the holes are. And I’d include “experience” as a hole in this instance. Here’s why. The Red Wings are a great team — multiple Cups in recent years. They came into the playoffs with 19 players on their roster who have earned at least one ring. But the Penguins have five players on their roster with a ring, too (Guerin, Kunitz, Sykora, Adams, Fedotenko).
The Caps?…one — Sergei Fedorov, and he looks to be gone next year.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Don't use the Red Wings
Brief quibble with your numbers — once a team wins a Cup, the next year the entire roster (minus off-season departures/additions) counts as having a ring, so it’s not really fair to use the Wings as an example. Teams that have been close but not won recently are better, so yes, Pens.
by Scott in Shaw on Jun 5, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
I still think 2nd line center is a higher priority – you can stick Chris Clark or DMG on the top line and they’ll still produce
We should make sure the Capitals know this….
by David Getz on Jun 5, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Heh. That minimum salary of $450k sure would be nice, wouldn’t it?
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I rated Koz a 4. I expected more from him playing on the OBK line. Like JP says, you could put the Pillsbury Dough Boy on Ovechkin’s other wing and he’d produce. He got all the chances in the world and couldn’t finish.
I think whether they try Fehr up top depends on how fast he heals. But if that isn’t a certainty come free agency, outside sounds right. This might be a crazy thought, but what about Scottie Upshall? I bet there’s a lot of guys who wouldn’t mind getting out of Phoenix right now, and while Upshall is RFA rather than UFA at 24, his cap hit at 1.25 isn’t that horrid even with a QO. Upshall’s got the toughness and the edge to protect Ovechkin and Backstrom, will go into the dirty places, and can score as well (15-19-34, +7 on the year).
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I’d like Upshall as well but I don’t think PHX traded for him just to let him walk. I also think the trade market or the aging veteran market is more likely where GMGM looks to replace Kozlov from. Knuble and Guerin will both be UFA so if he really wants to go on the open market those guys would probably sign for 2 years or less, which Upshall would likely turn down (or PHX would match).
Does anyone actually give a multi-year contract to guys over 35, especially the ones who are closer to 40?
No, that was my point. Those guys won’t expect one so if GMGM offers a 1 or 2 year deal they may accept it. Upshall is an RFA with leverage and probably is going to want 3-4 years. Between that and the compensation package in return I’m not sure it’s worth it to go for him.
I don’t see the Caps as being the type to make an offer to an RFA anyway, precisely because of the compensation involved.
And didn’t McPhee say that he doesn’t believe in trying to sign RFAs?
by red army line on Jun 6, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Knuble would be a great fit for RW on either 1st or 2nd line, assuming he is in good health.
and a short contract.
by ns on Jun 5, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I expected little and received even less for the season as a whole. Had to go with a four rating this time. Congrats on finally doing some damage in the playoffs, but bottom line-good luck in Russia.
Overall 4
I was disappointed in Kozy most of the regular season. This feeling was exasperated anytiem he would put on a clinic using his body to shield the puck at or below the goal line. Ironically, he has the ability to consistently fool you into believing he’s realizing his potential, then disappears for the next four or five games.
His playoff contributions were great, and all due credit to him. But he never seemed to be an on-ice leader (regular season or playoffs), and when the org. brings in a 30-something, top-line player, its a minimal expectation to have that player demonstrate a full effort every game.
Overall, not really sad to see him go as much as disappointed he couldn’t have contributed more (or be consistent one way or the other) while he was here. Right or wrong, I feel the same way about him as I did about Zubrus departing: Easily replaceable.
Peerless did a great job of capturing the Kozlovian Frustration here.
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Sounds like a Ludlum novel knock off…“The Kozlovian Frustration”
If you've read this far...seek help.
or a euphemism for “constipation”
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jun 5, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I gave him a 4, and that’s only because I formed my expectations with the understanding that he is a perennial underperformer. If I had evaluated him based on pure athletic potential I probably would have given him a 2. If I learned anything from the Big Lebowski it’s that rugs are replaceable, and it’s more trouble than it’s worth to try to chase down the one you had (and the BL intoxication game is murderous). We can find a new rug, preferably one that shows up for every game and does the dirty work. Come to think of it, we don’t need a rug, we need a welcome mat or a bath mat.
As long as that welcome mat doesn’t go in our crease.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 5, 2009 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Clark got 30 mainly playing with Ovechkin, Zubrus 23 and Kozlov, a guy who’s far more talented than both of them, manages 13? Have fun in Russia, Viktor. As far as needs go, a right wing for Nik and AO is probably third on the wish list after a second-line center and a nasty defenseman who will knock Sidney on his ass. Given the success of Clark, you probably don’t need to break the bank to fill that role if you go outside the organ-eye-zation. If you stay within, why not give Chris Bourque a shot? Yeah, he’s small, but Clark is no giant and he had success on the top line and Chris does the other things that line needs; he’ll dig in the corners, go to the net and he can skate. The Caps are going to have to fish or cut bait with him this coming season. Why not on the first line?
I adore Bourque. He’s a freaking fireplug, a joy to watch, and the fact that he makes nice eye candy doesn’t hurt. I think his size makes him better off on a skill line, which makes this a decent fit. I like the idea … but will they do it?
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Has C-Bo played much RW? I had thought that he was mostly a LW/C.
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…and Point on the PP. I think C-Bo is one of those guys that is so smart and such a good “hockey player” that he could play anywhere you needed him. He may take some time to adjust to the intricacies of switching sides of the ice but I think he’d be fine wherever.
Well, he hasn’t quite shown himself to be fine at the NHL level at his natural position(s) yet, has he?
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I’m not sure 12 games in the bigs over two seasons playing fourth line minutes is much of an indicator. If Flash can get unlimited ice time with limited success, certainly Bourque deserves an equal shot, no?
That’s my feeling. If he can become an NHL forward it could be LW or RW, but he still needs to get the chance and prove it.
I wouldn’t be unhappy if Bourque’s career followed the lines of this small guy. Notice the age when he finally got a chance to play.
I agree completely, but… at the same time, the fact that he’s gotten such limited time in the NHL is an indicator of something as well, is it not?
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When he’s got Backs, Nyls, Kozlov, and Fedorov in front of him, he’s not going to get much of a chance playing his natural position. And as feisty as he is, he’s top 6, not bottom 6. He’s never going to shine playing with energy lines – he needs a chance to play with other skill players.
by DrinkingPartner on Jun 5, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I really wish bruce would give Bourque a chance. I’ve been watching him in Hershey for a couple years now and he’s matured and grown into a smart hockey player who has that hockey sense of being where he needs to be to make plays. Unfortunately I haven’t seen him play RW much, but he plays the point on the PP really well…
by Bigpawtheyoda on Jun 5, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree completely, but… at the same time, the fact that he’s gotten such limited time in the NHL is an indicator of something as well, is it not?
Is that a challenge to make a list of guys who didn’t get a shot with the club that drafted them and then went on to long and productive careers with other teams?
Not at all. It’s just to say that it’s got to be, to an extent, a reflection of what this organization thinks of his ability to contribute to this team.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
FWIW, here are your pending UFA RWs (via nhlnumbers.com and sorted by 2008-09 salary):
Hossa, Marian
Guerin, Bill
Kovalev, Alexei
Gionta, Brian
Afinogenov, Maxim
Satan, Miroslav
Sullivan, Steve
Knuble, Mike
Kotalik, Ales
Sykora, Petr
Bertuzzi, Todd
Grier, Mike
Dvorak, Radek
Ouellet, Michel
Recchi, Mark
Neil, Chris
Samuelsson, Mikael
Hinote, Dan
Kostopoulos, Tom
Ortmeyer, Jed
Ward, Jason
McGrattan, Brian
Adams, Craig
Willsie, Brian
Downey, Aaron
McCarty, Darren
Hoffman, Mike
McLean, Kurtis
Orr, Colton
Roy, Andre
Wilson, Landon
Cavanagh, Tom
Hoggan, Jeff
Lemieux, Claude
Parker, Scott
Parrish, Mark
Rupp, Michael
Ward, Joel
Guite, Ben
Ondrus, Ben
Vesce, Ryan
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From everything I keep hearing from McPhee and given the upcoming Backstrom and Semin resignings (not to mention the salary cap uncertainty), I just don’t see the Caps going out and signing a decent free agent. If anything is going to happen, I’m guessing we’re looking at a trade for a guy with one or two years remaining on his contract.
When is the last time you believed anything that McPhee says?
Then again, I’m inclined to believe we’re going the trade route, too.
He’s already denied going after Bouwmeester, therefore, I believe he’s going after Bouwmeester.
Can he technically trade for the rights to Bouwmeester before July 1? He can, can’t he? I suppose that could be a trade/FA signing all in one.
Anyone think McPhee attempts to trade up the draft to make a pickup of Paarjavi-Svensson (or whatever his name is) or Kane or Schroeder or someone who is skill enough to come in and play top line RW (almost) immediately? I doubt it, but I wouldn’t put it out of the realm of possibility.
by DrinkingPartner on Jun 5, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Considering how many prospects we have that we probably don’t have a place for in DC or Hershey I think there is a very real posibility that GMGM moves up in the draft. Who he targets is a whole other question, though.
I agree. BTW, thank God you didn’t say “a whole nother.”
So who are we thinking? I noticed that we just lost Leffler and Taylor to FA. Lepisto is usually trotted, but he’s hurt, so probably won’t pull much.
I would hope we don’t dangle Kugryshev or Holtby, just because I’d like to see them develop first, but I don’t know.
by DrinkingPartner on Jun 5, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I think GMGM sits on Holtby and Kugryshev for a while since we just got them and he has a place to put them (CHL). The guys that I am thinking of are Seabrook, Godfrey, Lepisto, maybe Borque depending on how the organization thinks of them. There isn’t a ton of space in Hershey and it’s not a good plan to leave prospects in the ECHL for extended periods of time (i.e. more than 1 season). Yunkov, Finley, Carlson, Seabrook, Godfrey are all going to be heading to Hershey. That’s quite a log jam given the existing roster (minus Alzner and maybe Borque coming to DC).
Do you think the return would even be serviceable on anyone other than Bourque on that list? Granted, they are all VERY young, but, given that Bourque and Lepisto are likely the two most valuable on that list, I just don’t see much of anything coming back for them.
Glad you mentioned Yunkov, though. I am very interested to see what he brings to the table, simply because I’ve never seen him play, but also enjoy his comparisons to Ron Francis.
by DrinkingPartner on Jun 5, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually draw the opposite conclusions from you. C-Bo has been a pro for several years now and hasn’t made the jump, some teams may question whether he is going to be able to given his opportunities (or perceived opportunities). Same goes for Lepisto, but stronger because he has definitely had more chances to prove himself. Seabrook and Godfrey are still real young, offensive defensemen. Those players are always going to be attractive. Both have finished their CHL careers so they have played more, matured more, and developed more than anyone in the current draft crop. There may be teams that need young talent that is closer to NHL ready than the current draft prospects are. If that is the case we can package one of those guys with our pick (first or second round) to move up to a higher pick. It won’t get us into the top ten but it may get us to 12-15.
I think my comment above says it, though, just in that he hasn’t been given a chance in the place where he’ll most likely be able to succeed, which would be in the Top-6 forwards. Look at Flash, stick him anywhere away from line 2, and he stinks up everything around him. Keep him as a top-6 winger, and he gave us 20 goals this year. I see Bourque as a grittier version of that, where he needs skill around him to make him a successful NHL player, much like Juice needing Alzner.
That said, if he gets a chance on the 2nd line or above and blows it, that’s on him, and my opinion will change. Hopefully, with the exodus out of DC-to-Russia this summer, that can only bring him some hope of landing one of those roles.
by DrinkingPartner on Jun 5, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
The question is what wouldn’t you give for Callahan (or Dubinksy)? A second round pick? One first round pick? Two firsts? If we sign either guy we have to give a compensation package so GMGM (and speculating fans) need to determine how valuable those guys would be and determine if the draft picks would be worth it.
Knuble and Gionta are at the top of the list for me if the Caps are willing/able to go the free agent route. Samuelsson is also good, but I’m not sold on his ability to be a consistent top line guy. Steve Sullivan is another intriguing option. Obviously he has huge health concerns, but that could help keep his contract short and reasonable, and when he is healthy he is a hell of a player.
by Killer_Carlson on Jun 5, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Samuelsson is another guy who can play the point on the PP and can go to the front of the net. Plus it’s not as if we need a ton of skill as the #1 and #2 RW, seeing as how #1 C and #1 and #2 LW are all top 15 NHL forwards.
Anyone from Detroit, I think, is an attractive option. Even Chelios.
by red army line on Jun 6, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
4 for Victor—such great individual gifts, such a perennial bummer (though I give him props for a great game 6 in PIT). Even his forte in the shootout was not up to snuff.
I think we need a 1RW talent with a 3RW mentality for that top line, someone who is going to play with a little more anger than the perpetually smirking Koz. Someone along the lines of a Chris Neal
from the house that Red Jesus built
Chris Neal is not RW talent. He could possibly be less talented than any forward AO has ever played with (regularly). He is not going to fill the hole on that line.
Given the way the second half of his season went, I’d just wonder that instead of the usual contract push, he wasn’t already with one foot in the KHL, with going back to Russia on his mind
If you've read this far...seek help.
One foot in the KHL, one in the NHL… maybe that’s how he injured his groin.
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by J.P. on Jun 5, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I think after winning the first playoff series of his career he felt like he had accomplished everything he could in the NHL.
Cheechoo?
The Sharks are rumored (per ESPN) to be shopping him. He had a disturbing point drop this past year, but he’s a 28-yr old right wing with the capacity to score 30-40 goals.
He’s a $3m cap hit for each of the next two years, which could be manageable, but his goal totals the past four seasons have gone 56-37-23-12, goals per game .68-.49-.33-.18, and shots per game 3.87-3.29-3.19-2.30 – pretty troubling trend, overall.
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(That was meant as a reply to Scott)
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
He did get pushed off Thorton’s line, though.
by red army line on Jun 6, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d like to give him a 6 but scoring in the playoffs really should be an expectation for a guy like Kozlov so I have to go with a shaky 5 despite the skill and maturity he shows on the ice.
This was his highest scoring playoffs, yet (maybe ever), right? Depending on what he gave us last year, i don’t know how playoff expectations could have been raised a whole lot…
by DrinkingPartner on Jun 5, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
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| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
55 | 27 | 17 | 11 | 65 |
|
Washington
|
55 | 28 | 22 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
57 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
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55 | 24 | 25 | 6 | 54 |
|
Carolina
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56 | 20 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
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