Here Today, Gone Tomorrow?
by David M. Getz on Jun 26, 2009 11:30 AM EDT
108 comments
The only thing the media (and fans who love a chance to play General Manager) like about the draft more than the opportunity to draw up mocks and devise strategies for each team is to speculate about what draft day trades might be in the works. Our fellow Capitals blogger Peerless has a great piece about how, despite the speculation, there is unlikely to be a blockbuster trade on Friday or Saturday, this despite rumors that Vincent Lecavalier and Dany Heatley might be on the move.
While it’s true that the vast majority of draft-day deals are ones that tweak the prospect pool or NHL roster for the team making them, it’s worth noting that the odds of the Capitals making a trade are pretty good. Here’s who may no longer be members of the Capitals organization come Sunday:
Chris Bourque
Chance of being traded: 25%
Why he might be moved: Bourque’s been playing very well in the AHL for the last season and half, and get hasn’t stuck with the organization at the NHL level. There will undoubtedly be at least one NHL team that thinks he can play on their roster and the Capitals might decide to take advantage of that.
Why he might not be moved: A lot of what Bourque brings to the table – discipline, hard work, tenacious forechecking,willingness to his nose dirty – are exactly what the Capitals need right now. Not to mention he’s a winger and the right side is very unsettled at the NHL level for the moment.
What the Capitals want for him: If Bourque moves it’s going to be in one of two situations. Either he will (a) be moved as part of a package to acquire or swap draft picks or (b) be moved for a roster player. The Caps need help up front and Bourque is a guy who might be able to give that to them, so the team won’t let him go for a prospect.
Potential trade partners: Boston, Detroit, Nashville
Tomas Fleischmann
Chance of being traded: 20%
Why he might be moved: Fleischmann have a fair bit of skill and Bruce Boudreau loves the guy, but the Capitals need players who contribute in ways other than on the scoreboard, especially when the production is only average. That, and shipping him out might be the only way to get Boudreau to stop playing him.
Why he might not be moved: As frustrating as he may have been at times, Flash's level of production - 19 goals at $725,000 - is tough to beat.
What the Capitals want for him: Fleischmann's a decent NHL player and he seems to have a fair amount of untapped potential, but he's just not the right player for the Capitals right now. If the Caps move Flash, it'll probably be as part of a deal that nets them a second line winger who plays with a fair amount of grit and physicality.
Potential Trade Partners: Minnesota, New York Rangers, Vancouver
Boyd Gordon
Chance of being traded: 33%
Why he might be moved: David Steckel seems to have taken over as the team's third line center and premier penalty killing forward and Gordon has enough value to a lot of teams to fetch a decent return.
Why he might not be moved: Guys like Gordon aren't as easy to find as a lot of people think and the Capitals know that. Plus the team isn't very deep down the middle right now and they could use Gordon as cover for one of the top three lines in case of an injury.
What the Capitals want for him: Gordon has value, but he's not going to bring the Capitals the type of player they're looking for. If he's moved it will most likely be so the Capitals can move up in the draft order.
Potential Trade Partners: Los Angeles, Toronto, Vancouver
Shaone Morrisonn
Chance of being traded: 40%
Why he might be moved: Assuming Karl Alzner’s ready to be an NHL regular the Capitals have seven NHL-caliber defensemen aside of Morrisonn and given their salary cap situation, needs up front, and the $1.975 million dollar offer it would take to keep Morrisonn’s rights, the team might decide the most effective asset management course to take is to move Mo.
Why he might not be moved: There will probably be several teams interested in Morrisonn but an defenseman coming off an inconsistent season with an unknown 2009-10 salary isn’t going to be anyone’s first choice. Potential trade partners are probably going to want to explore other options, including free agency, before making a deal for Mo. That lack of urgency means a draft-day trade is unlikely.
What the Capitals want for him: If the Capitals move Morrisonn, it will primarily be because they can’t afford him so a pick, a prospect, or a forward are all possibilities, though we would imagine that with the obvious holes the Caps have at the NHL level right now they’ll be most interested in roster players.
Potential Trade Partners: Anaheim, Phoenix, Tampa Bay
Jose Theodore:
Chance of being traded:10%
Why he might be moved: That $4.5 million is an awful lot of money for a guy who’s going to start the season as a platoon player at best. If Brent Johnson’s health makes him a viable veteran option for the team, getting Theodore’s salary off the books could help the Capitals address some of their more pressing needs.
Why he might not be moved: As good as Simeon Varlamov was in the 2009 playoffs, handing the starting role a 21 year old with who struggled with injuries and fitness the past season and has less than six months of NHL experience under his belt would be a huge risk. Johnson would seem to be the ideal type to play the backup role or platoon if needed, but he's not under contract and no one knows if he can stay healthy. Plus, with Nicklas Backstrom and Alexander Semin in need of new contracts after the 2009-10 season, there's no guarantee that Caps even get to use that additional salary cap space.
What the Capitals want for him: The decision about whether or not to move Theodore is a decision about the roster and salary structure of the 2009-10 more than anything else. Thus if the Capitals decide it's in their best interest to trade Theodore, they're going to move him no matter what the return is. Naturally they'll still take the best offer on the table, but that offer could be a prospect or it could be a low round draft pick
Potential trade partners: Colorado, Edmonton, Los Angeles, Ottawa
What are we missing? Are there any other Capitals you think might be headed out the door? Any you'd like to see head out the door? Let us know in the comments section.
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flash
shipping him out might be the only way to get Boudreau to stop playing him
honestly, i’d love to no longer have to scream “why the *&%# is flash out on the power play?!” anymore…
personally, i’d like to see bourque stay, but i understand that he may have a better chance to play at the NHL level elsewhere, and that’s obviously his dream.
by kellobellow on Jun 26, 2009 11:37 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
you totally stole my thunder with that post. :-)
also: 1 in 3 chance Gordon is dealt, really? i’d be more inclined to keep the 25 year old center who can do some dirty work.
Russian Machine Never Breaks
by macvechkin on Jun 26, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d also like to have two forwards on my PK who are good in the dot – keeping Gordo and Steckel has a tandem seems like a smart PK move to me.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 26, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve been advocating keep Steckel and Gordon for a month now. They’re both dirt cheap, provide a dangerous (to the other team) tandem of face-off specialists, and are the core of the PK.
by RedBirdie on Jun 26, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Gordon is the single most likely guy to move if the Capitals try to trade up.
by David M. Getz on Jun 26, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can see that, although I also think Flash is a good possibility. We’re not exactly stocked with f/o go-to guys. Flash is more easily replaced out of the system than is Gordo.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 26, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many spots would a guy like Gordon really move us up? I can’t see him moving us up more than Flash would.
by Fehr and Balanced on Jun 26, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Depends on the team. If a team wants a cheap skill winger, they’ll want Flash. If a team wants a solid third liner, they’ll want Gordon.
by David M. Getz on Jun 26, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There’s something that tells me Juice and/or Schultz MIGHT go if Carlson is that close to ready, but that also could be the breakfast burrito I ate.
by Bald Pollack on Jun 26, 2009 11:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I could easily see Juice traded.
by Gould Old Days on Jun 26, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think if it’s a multi-player deal to get a modestly priced, proven forward of some sort (or a center as some smart guy wrote about), it’s possible. I just don’t know how likely.
by Bald Pollack on Jun 26, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I easily want Juice traded. I don’t think he’s ever going to have a higher value than right now.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Jun 26, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d have to agree, his value is high right now, people will fall in love with his frame and potential as well, and he only costs ~1M. He’s VERY movable if the caps are looking to do something
by GusDaMan on Jun 26, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn’t be the first time we moved an inconsistent D coming off a good playoffs while their value was high.
by Fehr and Balanced on Jun 26, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Another reason CBo won’t be traded: He’s an RFA. You’d just be trading the RFA rights to an AHLer.
by TylerG on Jun 26, 2009 11:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Chance of being traded
How are you computing this? Or is it just a gut feel type of thing?
by Uncle C on Jun 26, 2009 11:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mostly just a gut thing. I looked at guys and said “What are the odds of this guy being dealt in the offseason?” and “If he’s dealt, what are the odds it happens at the draft?” and considered values in between until I was comfortable.
by David M. Getz on Jun 26, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So how did you determine the trade partners? Specifically, why would DET want Borque? And if they do want him, doesn’t that mean we should keep him?
by Fehr and Balanced on Jun 26, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So how did you determine the trade partners? Specifically, why would DET want Borque?
Some were obvious (i.e. Tampa and defensemen), but other than that Iooked at rosters and cap situations and tried to put myself in opposing GMs’ shoes and think about who I’d want. I could see Detroit wanting Bourque because they need to fill a couple of spots up front and they don’t have a lot of money to do it, they like speed, and they like guys who other teams see as flawed for some reason (in Bourque’s case size). Hard worker, good skater, undersized just screams ‘Detroit’ to me.
And if they do want him, doesn’t that mean we should keep him?
Yes.
by David M. Getz on Jun 26, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Juice and Ersky are in this conversation too. After an exceptional playoffs, Juice’s asset value is the highest it’s ever been. And Ersky is 5-6-7 D cost-certainty for someone, WSH or elsewhere.
by TylerG on Jun 26, 2009 11:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
but Erskine just sign a new contract. with the extremely uncertain cap situation for 2010-2011, I would think that teams would be nervous about taking on a new, 2-year contract for a guy who didn’t seem to blossom into a decent D-man until late this season.
by RedBirdie on Jun 26, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No reason to move Erskine. Just piss away the only physicality on our d-line except for Jurcina, who is kind of dead weight, in my opinion.
I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.
by Whiter Mage on Jun 26, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Moving someone is not the same as “pissing them away” per se. No way the team should just give Erskine away (unless they need that cap space to do something else) but if moving him makes the team better or lets them draft the guy they want, I don’t think the fact that he hits should stop them.
by David M. Getz on Jun 26, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do think right now that Morrisson and Juice are likely to be overvalued, or at least valued at about what they’re worth. I have the abiding feeling that Erskine is undervalued by other teams, and wouldn’t bring much in return.
by Gould Old Days on Jun 26, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn’t say there was necessarily a reason to move him, just that I can see him being attractive to other teams — especially cap-crunched teams needing a veteran D.
by TylerG on Jun 26, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Caps are at least a year away from making a decision on which goaltender to put their money on. The two goalies have 11 games, combined, of regular season experience. There is no rush to move one or the other; there probably isn’t even a rush next summer, since it isn’t until after the 2010-2011 season that both goalies will have their entry contracts expire.
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jun 26, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
nhlnumbers has this year (09-10 season) as neuvy’s last before RFA…
by sexypills03 on Jun 26, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, Neuvirth’s expires at the end of this year. I agree with you, though – it’s too early to move Neuvirth.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 26, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This actually increases the odds he stays in the AHL all year. AHL goalies don’t get million dollar extensions.
by Gould Old Days on Jun 26, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think there’s a myriad of reasons to keep him in Hershey this year, and he’ll only benefit from it. I think we’ll see Varlamov/Theodore in Washington and Neuvirth/Holtby in Hershey, pending training camp.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 26, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Neuvirth and Gordon both represent spots on the roster where we have redundancy.
If you can move that as part of a package to get something you really need – i.e. #1 D or #2 C, then it might make sense. What if a team would take Nylander along with Neuvirth (assuming a waive of the NTC) – would you make that trade?
Yes, I’d hate to make the who is better gamble with Varlamov/Neuvirth now, but ultimately, the Caps have some needs to fill and:
1. other teams are going to expect to receive quality to trade quality.
2. the Caps probably won’t have the cap space to sign big time free agents
Something is going to have to give. Redundant players might be a luxury the Caps can’t afford.
by Stormblue on Jun 26, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree on Gordon, not so much on Neuvirth. We can’t say he and Varlamov are redundant because we really don’t know what they are at the NHL level yet.
by David M. Getz on Jun 26, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I see them as redundant in that they are both blue chip goalie propects. Just their potential, that is what would fetch a trade.
Ultimately its about risk – and the risk is that you could lose the trade potential if one doesn’t pan out, or the risk is that you keep the wrong one.
I’d only do it if it made the caps immensely better and took some deadweight salary.
I also think another potential option given the Caps salary cap predicament is to fill the spots with hershey guys and keep the cap space, see if they pan out, and if not, then address the needs later with half year salary hits.
by Stormblue on Jun 26, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I also think another potential option given the Caps salary cap predicament is to fill the spots with hershey guys and keep the cap space, see if they pan out, and if not, then address the needs later with half year salary hits.
That’s my position. Give the Bears most of the season to prove themselves and then fill any holes at the trade deadline. The problem with that is that GMs always overpay for players at the deadline but it at least allows GMGM to keep some cap room in case we need to make moves. It also allows GMGM to watch and see which rentals are actually contributing next year instead of guessing at which players can step in and help this team.
by Fehr and Balanced on Jun 26, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Make moves, or fill in for injuries like we had to this year.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 27, 2009 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, for exactly the reasons stated. Neither Neuvirth nor Varlamov have had enough NHL starts for us to really know what they’ve got at this level. Holtby has shown us nothing yet – not his fault, there just hasn’t been time. For that reason, neither will bring as much in trade as you think – goalies are the biggest gamble in trades and in drafting. Yes, they look good right now, but the jury’s still out on both of them, sorry.
Don’t get hung up on big names in free agency, and remember that Neuvirth will not count against the cap if he is in Hershey. Big names alone will not get you a Cup – it’s the roleplayers (see: Talbot, Maxime) that make the difference. In our own system, ask the Manitoba Moose about Steve Pinizzotto – he drove them positively insane during the Calder Cup final. To throw away the future in goaltending to sign a big name that may or may not help us doesn’t make sense.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 26, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two words: Jim Carey. Nobody knows how a young goalie will develop until he’s done it over at least a two year span. No way they can get rid of either Neuvirth or Varlamov yet.
by b.orr4 on Jun 26, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
ack……twitching……..he should from here on out be known only as “The Goalie Who Shall Not Be Mentioned”
by RedBirdie on Jun 26, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For my money, the guy most likely to go (and conversely, the guy I’d least like to see leave) is Bourque. He’s young, cheap, tremendous bloodlines and he’s proven at the AHL level that he’s a hell of a competitor. Plus, in today’s NHL, he’s got the skill set to do well. The only real knock on him is his size and even that’s not a big deal given the success of so many small players. The most likely trade partner is the obvious, Boston. It would be a win/win for them. Bringing back a Bourque to the Bruins would be a PR bonanza. Plus, they’re in salary cap hell and his relatively cheap price would be very attractive. Who would I like back? How about Marc Savard? You’d have to throw in a draft choice or two and maybe another prospect but this is a deal I think could get done if the two sides get creative.
by b.orr4 on Jun 26, 2009 11:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
But he’s an RFA. Why would BOS/etc. give up an asset for an AHL RFA? I mean, would the Caps really match $925K for CBo?! I hear ya, but….
by TylerG on Jun 26, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True, he is an RFA, but unlike a Mo or a Semin, there’s a high degree of certainty that his next contract isn’t going to be huge. So any team trading for him knows he’s going to be relatively cheap and they’re going to have his rights for a while. And if Boston was the trade partner, you know Chris would sign just about any contract they put in front of him. Of course, the Caps could always sign him to another multi-year deal and then trade him. I just feel that for all the reasons stated, he’s going to be an attractive player to somebody. Hopefully, he stays with the Caps but if he brings a big fish, so be it.
by b.orr4 on Jun 26, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boston is about to be in Salary Cap hell. With only 15 players under contract, their payroll is already at 50.5 million (according to capgeek.com). Tim Thomas’s extension, and Kreji’s extensions kick in, and thats adding up.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Jun 26, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just heard on XM that the Bruins are definitely shopping Kessel.
by b.orr4 on Jun 26, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i would love to see savard on the caps.. watching him and OV work together at the ASG last season was awesome and he was pretty funny too mic’d up during the shoot out competion.. not too sure how willing BOS is to give him up tho…
by sexypills03 on Jun 26, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is something lurking in the back of my mind that scares me to death about Savard…
-49
A guy who was -19 when he scored 96 points (his first year with Boston) might have defense issues. He’s done better the last couple of years, but that’s a product of a coach who plays a demanding three zone style. Are things so loosey-goosey here than Savard reverts to old habits (or at least production)?
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jun 26, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that -49 is his career number.
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jun 26, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But wouldn’t you attribute Savard’s 19 in ’06‘07 to similar circumstances as Ovie’s -19 that same year? That is, just being on an overall poor team vice his true defensive play. Even Chara was a -21 that season.
Not totally disagreeing with you, seeing as Savard’s had 8 minus seasons out of 11, but he was on some poor teams in Atlanta and had some losing campaigns with Calgary as well.
by Cluster on Jun 26, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They probably don’t have the cap room to sign both him and Kessel. Do you guys think he’d come to the Caps for a shot at playing with ovi?
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 26, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Savard’s going to be 33 next summer and was a late bloomer. I think money’s going to be a huge factor in his decision.
by David M. Getz on Jun 26, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right, but if he comes to WAS he is going to be near 100 points (if healthy). That would really open the door for him to sign a huge contract to retire on.
by Fehr and Balanced on Jun 26, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, I get it, she meant in terms of waiving the no trade clause. I thought she meant as an UFA.
These longer strings can get hard to follow…
by David M. Getz on Jun 26, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn’t I like to see that deal, although I, too, would hate to lose Bourque. I just don’t see Boston making the deal with the Caps.
by gfcaps fan on Jun 26, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Untouchables…
Ovechkin, Backstrom, Green, Varlamov
You better wow us…
Semin, Laich, Steckel, Neuvirth, Carlson, Alzner
We’ll listen…
Everyone else
by JSchon on Jun 26, 2009 11:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I would elevate Carlson and Alzner to untouchable simply because we need to see what they can give us, first. I also think Semin is a near impossible trade, simply because we would require a Hossa/Kovalchuk/Savard or Kessel&Lucic-like return, and I doubt anyone takes that.
by DrinkingPartner on Jun 26, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see no difference between Neuvirth and Varlamov. While Varly was excelling in the NHL playoffs, Neuvirth was excelling in the AHL playoffs.
I see both of them as untouchables until we know which one will be the real stud. Then you trade the other for maximum value.
by Moonage Daydream on Jun 26, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No difference? Uh, let’s see…
One was good in the NHL playoffs, one was good in the AHL playoffs. There IS a difference between the AHL and the NHL.
One has a big glove (Neuvirth), one has a suspect glove (Varlamov).
One is an athletic, sprawling type (Varlamov), one is a positional goaltender (Neuvirth).
But other than that….
by TylerG on Jun 26, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he meant in terms of their current place in the Caps’ future. As of now I agree, both are in the running, neither is a lock. Varlamov’s glove was highly touted until this playoffs so we can’t even be sure what to make of his glove right now. Yeah, the NHL is harder, but Neuvirth made it farther in the AHL, put up seriously better numbers, and was more dominant. Obviously there are differences between the two guys, they aren’t clones, but they are basically standing on the same ground with respects to the Caps’ future 1G spot.
by Fehr and Balanced on Jun 26, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with untouchables, but add a few from the wow list.
I wouldn’t get rid of our two top d prospects. They are of the ‘build from within" mold. I’d keep Steckel because he’s turning out to be a playoff performer and I like that. I wouldn’t let Neuvirth go after he won the championship in his rookie season. Semin would have to bring in a boat load of talent. No less than two solid 20 goal, 40-50 point guys, plus prospects and picks.
Laich can be interchanged, I agree with you there.
by Hunky Dory on Jun 26, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
…Morrisonn is the most likely to go, but being an RFA makes it tough. The QOs don’t go out until Monday (and Mo will get one, of course). Mo has never been an easy player to get under contract as he thinks he is worth more than he probably is worth. He is a valuable player, but there are any number of players out there who do what he does just as effectively.
Theodore is the one the Caps would really like to move if Johnny is healthy and if Johnny stays in DC. I suspect the reason Johnny hasn’t signed yet is that he waiting to see if Theo leaves. If Theo does leave, then Johnny will sign, otherwise he needs to look elsewhere. Personally, if the Caps can get anything for Theo, they should take it, even if means moving up in round 7. He is a UFA at the end of 2009-2010, and he won’t be resigned either way. He is a good team guy and he’s good in the locker room, so he has some value, and a team with a young starter and no veteran back up (such as LA) would be a really good fit.
Would really, really hate to see Gordon moved…
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Caps on Jun 26, 2009 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone else feel like the re-signing of Q. Laing makes Boyd a little more expendable? I see them both as PK puck sponges and not much more than that (although Boyd’s apparently very good on FO’s and I can’t say for certain that Laing is also).
Just thinking (if ya wanna call it that) out loud… let the pouncing begin! : ]
by war_capitals on Jun 26, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone else feel like the re-signing of Q. Laing makes Boyd a little more expendable?
No, because I really don’t think Laing factors into plans at the NHL level very much. Plus Gordon’s faster, better offensively, can play center, and is great on draws.
by David M. Getz on Jun 26, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, this.
Laing is a good guy, I like him. But he does not replace the very specific (and admittedly somewhat narrow) skill set that Gordon brings to the team.
by RedBirdie on Jun 26, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Narrow but very, very necessary. Faceoff specialists don’t grow on trees, and I don’t think we have many in Hershey.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 26, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, I agree. its narrow, but so incredibly valuable. Unless the return for Gordon is something like the Fedorov-for-Ruth trade, I’d be wary of trading away an elite face-off guy. How many teams can be confident that their 4th line center will win the majority of face-offs?
by RedBirdie on Jun 26, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You need a guy on the PK who can win faceoffs, but I don’t think its particularly important for a 4th line center to win faceoffs.
by Stormblue on Jun 26, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s on the PK that his face-off value becomes evident. Throw Steckel out and you get Gordon, which isn’t a lot better from the other team’s perspective.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 26, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe the guy who did that standard deviation calc could do the math on this, but I figure its something like
(% likely for first guy to be chased from faceoff) * (faceoff loss ) * ( of goals allowed on PP following faceoff loss) and divide by (avg points per game for the player.)
Compare Gordon to Aucoin (who will be on a 1-way contract next year) – does Gordon’s 10%ish better faceoff win % overcome a likely highter PPG for Aucoin AND factor in whatever you fetch for Gordon in a trade?
Clearly its friday in the offseason.
by Stormblue on Jun 26, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s on the PK that his face-off value becomes evident. Throw Steckel out and you get Gordon, which isn’t a lot better from the other team’s perspective.
EXACTLY. The odds are in the Caps favor that, with Steckel and Gordon on the ice for a PK face-off, the Caps will win control of the puck. To this arm-chair (ok, desk-chair) GM, that’s insanely valuable.
by RedBirdie on Jun 26, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Johnny hasn’t signed yet because it’s in his interest to test the market, even though he really wants to be here. He was on his way to a really good performance in a contract year before he got hurt, so while no one is likely looking at him as a starter, he probably has good value as the backup to a young goalie. If Theo’s here, that’s not happening, meaning he might not get as much here. And if he loses a competition in camp, he’s out on waivers again, with no control over where he lands.
by gfcaps fan on Jun 26, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course it’s also possible that Johnson hasn’t signed because the Capitals haven’t made him an offer.
by David M. Getz on Jun 26, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That, too, although didn’t GM say that they had been in talks?
by gfcaps fan on Jun 26, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very appropriate photo of George Too
It looks like he is juggling, which is exactly what he’s got to do these days…
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Caps on Jun 26, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
“So George, what are you going to do with Nylander this year?”
by Bald Pollack on Jun 26, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Semin? Clowe?
1) Great post as always DMG. Agree that no one would be shocked to see Morrisonn moved this weekend. Anyone think that GMGM might think big and make Alex Semin available as part of a potential big deal? The guy is mega talented but remains an enigma in many ways. That and he is going to be in the last year of a contract, etc. Not the kind of player you just toss overboard, but if GMGM can get back a player(s) that can put them over the top, you make him available.
2) Anyone want GMGM to make an offer for Ryan Clowe? Not sure what it would take, but seems he might be a good fit for you guys. ( BTW, NOT suggesting a Clowe for Semin trade!)
I find sometimes it's easy to be myself
sometimes I find it's better to be somebody else
by Fauxrumors on Jun 26, 2009 12:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My caveat on Clowe is the same as I stated earlier – make a deal that doesn’t lock us out of a second line center and I won’t say no, but don’t be in such a hurry to grab the one that we’re short the other or end up in salary cap hell like last year.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 26, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A big factor to consider in any trade discussions involving semin is AO. They are very good friends, and AO has already lost 2 of his russian teammates from last season in Kozzie and Feds. Keeping your superstar player happy HAS to be a consideration in any moves a team makes, and that factor (when combined with all the other previously discussed reasons not to trade him) pretty much rules out moving Semin IMO.
by GusDaMan on Jun 26, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m leaning towards that thought, as well.
by gfcaps fan on Jun 26, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the friendship between Ovechkin and Semin gets too much play. I’m sure Ovie would like to have him around but he’s a professional and he’s making 9 million dollars next year. He can’t let his performance be affected by something like that.
by David M. Getz on Jun 26, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ovie is also friends with Illya Kovulchuck who is a UFA next year when Semin becomes an RFA….If Semin is not moved this year (and I think he could be) and maintains his brilliant but often baffling play, I would not be surprised to see the CAPS make a move for IK either at the trade deadline in 2010 or in Free Agency and let Semin go.
Cant see IK resigning with Atlanta, so they may be forced to trade him, even though they say they won’t.
On bad teams Kovie still gives great effort and still puts up big numbers and he is only 26.
by Direction 87 on Jun 26, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A second $8-9M winger, especially considering Backstrom will be in the $5-6M range? I dunno….
by TylerG on Jun 26, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed. The won’t want to pay him and a free agent and they won’t want to hand over the type of package it’d take to get him at the trade deadline. I don’t see Kovalchuk ever wearing a Caps uniform.
by David M. Getz on Jun 26, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the day is just starting to warm up….
Promote the game, it's the NHL, not SCHL
by kurlNdrag on Jun 26, 2009 12:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This is the rumor that’s been bouncing around all day but it raises eyebrows with me. Kaberle adds 4.25 million to the Bruins payroll if it happens, which puts them at about 54.75 million with 15 skaters and one goalie.
by David M. Getz on Jun 26, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 26, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed, and doesn’t Brian Burke want to move up? .I think he’ll dangle Kaberle to do that, but there is no way he is going to move down, or out, of the first round.
from the house that Red Jesus built
by bigonetimer on Jun 26, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thinking that Burke wants a matched set of Schenn’s?
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 26, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
heh. I think he wants Victor Hedman, to be honest. And TB is just screwed up enough to do something silly at #2
from the house that Red Jesus built
by bigonetimer on Jun 26, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because the rumor mill keeps saying that, it’s probably not true, there’s probably some ulterior motive. Then again, Brian Burke is not George McPhee, so maybe he just tells it like it is.
by gfcaps fan on Jun 26, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
GMGM’s utter paranoia that someone might know what he’s thinking is so charmingly Washington. He probably insists that other GM’s speak in code and arrange dead drops in Rock Creek Park if they want to discuss a trade.
by RedBirdie on Jun 26, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which I guess is why I love it. I have obviously lived in this town WAY too long.
by gfcaps fan on Jun 26, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Garth Snow’s similar silence is very, charmingly Washington too?
by TylerG on Jun 26, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
its only charming if its in Washington :) Snow’s silence, I suspect, is just another indication of the disarray the Islanders are in.
by RedBirdie on Jun 26, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not exactly a fair comparison, but I recall GMGM playing coy with the Oveckin pick, too. Even though the whole world knew what it would be.
by gfcaps fan on Jun 26, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What are the signs that Snow’s front office is in disarray? This isn’t the Milbury years…. all signs are that they’re doing things right now. Finally.
by TylerG on Jun 26, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, no team’s immune to the occasional clunker. Pokulok comes to mind.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 27, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pokie won’t be on our books when I have kids.
by Fehr and Balanced on Jun 27, 2009 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok someone please explain this to me? am I missing something with Kessel? he’s good but he’s no Backstrom (yes I’m biased) or Kane. So trading for Kaberle AND the #7 seems crazy to me.
by vt caps fan on Jun 26, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and thats why Toronto nixed it. They were not going to give that much up
by amkcaps on Jun 26, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not seeing these guys leaving; Flash and Bourque. One is Boudreau’s love-child from the AHL, the other is one of the Caps higher prospects with a low cap hit. While I agree with your reasoning DMG, my gut tells me those two aren’t on the block. just a hunch, I could be wrong…very wrong.
Capitals Kremlin the second line center of the Caps blogosphere.
by CapitalsKremlin on Jun 26, 2009 2:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
20% ???????!!!!!
Only 20% for Flash. WTF! Wish it were 100%
uhh...uhh...uhh...
by hotdog88gt on Jun 26, 2009 6:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Something We Haven't Touched On Yet
Someone please give me a scenerio on how we will get rid of Nyls and what could we possibly get in return.
The difference between ORDINARY and extraORDINARY is that little "extra"
by Moufunction on Jun 26, 2009 11:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
One trade for a player on Day 1.
The rumor sites will spend today cleaning egg off their faces (or in the case of Eklund, counting the money he’s taken from suckers who buy his crap).
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jun 27, 2009 10:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
68 | 45 | 14 | 9 | 99 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
67 | 28 | 27 | 12 | 68 |
|
Atlanta
|
67 | 28 | 29 | 10 | 66 |
|
Florida
|
67 | 28 | 29 | 10 | 66 |
|
Carolina
|
68 | 28 | 32 | 8 | 64 |
(updated 3.14.2010 at 9:01 AM EDT)
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