Standard deviation of the Rink's Wrap votes

by fnralch on Jun 25, 2009 11:12 AM EDT

In addition to the average rating, which is obviously calculated taking average over all votes, another useful parameter to look at is the standard deviation of the voting results which is denoted as σ. Basically, it shows how (non)uniform the fans are in their votes -- the larger standard deviation, the wider opinions and votes on a specific player. So, fitting all results as of this morning (06/25/2009) with a normal (Gaussian) distribution that gives both the average value and the standard deviation (and by the way, the fit quality is mostly excellent), we come to the following list ordered by σ:

Player	standard deviation	average rating
Backstrom	.865	8.52
Green	.892	8.58
Semin	.900	7.63
Laich	.914	7.97
Steckel	.982	7.87
Jurcina	1.00	6.30
Ovechkin	1.09	9.69
Alzner	1.13	6.73
Johnson	1.19	6.93
Varlamov	1.19	8.86
Gordon	1.21	6.17
Erskine	1.24	6.58
Bradley	1.26	6.41
Morrisohn	1.27	4.65
Sloan	1.37	7.09
Clark	1.39	2.65
Fehr	1.39	5.48
Kozlov	1.40	4.85
Poti	1.41	5.94
Fleischmann	1.42	5.68
Nylander	1.45	1.84
Brashear	1.46	4.45
Theodore	1.52	4.76
Fedorov	1.53	6.19
Schultz	1.63	5.25
Pothier	1.95	7.68

These numbers quite well reflect the spread of opinions and viewpoints on different players. Not surprisingly, the least controversy arises for the three out of four Young Guns + Laich + Steckel. Ovi's 1.09 is likely a reflection of maniacal alien fans trying to distort his results (there are 14 ratings of 1...how could that be?!?..) On the other side, Nylander, Theodore and Schultz have all been a subject of endless discussions which is reflected in their values. The highest σ is for Pothier which clearly is a manifestation of more emotional ratings due to his return from injury rather than a purely technical evaluation of the player's performance. Moreover, Pothier's season was one of the shortest for Caps and this also affected the spread. Finally, a large standard deviation for Fedorov is probably also due to a non-negligible emotional component in evaluation of an aging superstar...

And the very last note, due to quite significant statistics (450 to 950 votes per player) these results are not going to change if more votes are added. In fact, most of the polls are already closed.

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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Comments

nice work.

the Captain’s numbers are horrifying.

from the house that Red Jesus built

by bigonetimer on Jun 25, 2009 12:35 PM EDT reply actions

Well, I bet Clark would have given himself a one or two for this past season. I bet he rebounds some and will bust ass in camp and during the season.

Let's go Caps!

by MikeL-Pivonka on Jun 26, 2009 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions

let’s hope so…best outlook I see for him this year is a checking role on line 3.

from the house that Red Jesus built

by bigonetimer on Jun 26, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, but if we decide to pick up a money Center, he has to be your first pick for a first line RW, no?

I'm so sick and tired of the refs explaining the calls like this is the NFL.

by Whiter Mage on Jun 29, 2009 3:12 AM EDT up reply actions

the math teacher in me loves this, haha :)

thanks! quite interesting, for sure.

by kellobellow on Jun 25, 2009 3:45 PM EDT reply actions

Great statistical work.

www.pensburgh.com

by Hooks Orpik on Jun 25, 2009 7:20 PM EDT reply actions

I’d say the variance on Pothier and Fedorov could be that nobody knew what to expect, especially with Pothier. Fedorov was only with us for a part of last season and Potsy was obviously a huge question mark. There was likely a wide range of expectations for those two players, so that would result in a wide range of voting. People more uniformly expected a lot from the young guns and got that. People knew what kind of players Laich and Steckel are and they got that. Great work on the stats, those are just my thoughts.

by Rob Parker on Jun 26, 2009 6:13 PM EDT reply actions

Pothier’s votes mostly look Gaussian with the average near 7.5 but then there’s a sudden peak at 10 — I’d say the thinking was “Wow, his career was finished but the guy came back, I give him a 10.”

by fnralch on Jun 26, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I appreciated your using the proper symbol for sigma.

by RickyRage on Jun 28, 2009 8:54 PM EDT reply actions

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