Pick 'Em: 2007-08 or 2008-09 Caps?
by J.P. on Jun 24, 2009 12:00 PM EDT
in Pick 'Ems
71 comments
In the immediate aftermath of being eliminated from the playoffs in just about as unceremonious a fashion as one could imagine, Alexander Semin was asked whether or not his team had taken a step forward from the prior season.
"Honestly?" Semin answered, "In my opinion we played better last season. I think that despite the fact that we got a lot of points and finished second in the regular season this year, I really liked last year."
It's an interesting response from a player who, statistically, had his best NHL season in 2008-09 after struggling a bit in the previous campaign, and whose team finished the season with the League's fourth-best record and won a playoff round for the first time in more than a decade.
Granted, Semin's answer might be different today, given the perspective that a month of distance from a devastating loss no doubt provides, but the question is still as valid as it was on that night - how much real progress did the Caps make this season? Put slightly differently and in a way that's perfectly tailored to be debated while perched upon bar stools with a few rounds down, would the 2008-09 Capitals have won a best-of-seven series against the 2007-08 Caps?
The personnel on the two squads was nearly identical, of course, with the notable exceptions being between the pipes (au revoir to Cristobal and Olie, bonjour to Jose, Simeon and Michal) and the loss of Matt Cooke for this past year's squad (as a point of reference, here are the two teams: 2007-08 and 2008-09). And, of course, the most recent incarnation was a more experienced group, having been through a playoff series whereas its predecessor, for the most part, hadn't.
There are plenty of stats after the jump, so do make sure to click through (below the poll if you're reading this on the front page of the site).
Regular season (all 2007-08 numbers are projected 82-game totals based on the 61 games Bruce Boudreau coached):
Playoffs:
Would 2007-08's 65-goal scoring Alex Ovechkin be enough to put that team over the top, or would Norris-finalist Mike Green's squad prevail? Would Cristobal Huet out-duel Simeon Varlamov and/or Jose Theodore? Would the healthy scratch Michael Nylander go visit his rehabbing dopplegänger and warn him about the year ahead? Et cetera. (And if you're having a hard time answering these questions and making up your mind or just want to have some more fun with the scenario, head on over to WhatIfSports and play it out a few times.)
The variables are many and the hypothetical a bit fantastic, but there is one near certainty - this series would go seven games after one team came back from a 3-1 deficit to force that deciding match before a raucous, red-rockin' Verizon Center crowd.
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2008-09
2008-09 was exciting from the moment they lost 7-4 to Atlanta in a disappointing opener until the time the final horn sounded in game 7 against the Pens. It was the first time in a very long time that I was captivated for every game, all season long.
2007-08 was remarkable (to say the least), and I don’t think that as a fan I’ll ever witness anything as exciting as that push for the playoffs they made (speaking strictly in regular season excitement here…), but in the end it was a season that started off very disappointing and ended without a playoff series victory, so my vote goes to this past season.
by PaintDrinkingPete on Jun 24, 2009 12:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Looks like there’s a typo in the 07-08 regular season PK stat…I seem to recall it being a whole lot better than 20.4%!
by Kerry Fraser's Hairspray on Jun 24, 2009 12:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, I corrected it.
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by J.P. on Jun 24, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I voted for ‘08-’09. They were a EC powerhouse pretty much from game 1 to 82, with a dominant intra-conference record. And, while their playoff result didn’t match their seeding, they progressed in the postseason and were oh so close to advancing further. Bottom line, they were a better team from beginning to end.
However, if you take the Rink Wrap scoring scale approach to this question, I’d probably give ‘07-08 an 8, and ’08-’09 a 7, just based on expectations going in.
by Cluster on Jun 24, 2009 12:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Early voting has this past year’s squad in a landslide. No love for Matt Cooke, 65-goal scoring Ovechkin, Cristobal Huet or discipline?
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by J.P. on Jun 24, 2009 12:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think it’s fairer to ask about the rest of the squad’s scoring over the two seasons. 65-goals Alex is all well and good, but balanced scoring = better. Which squad had more balanced scoring?
I don’t know if all of Huet’s success was him or the determination of the defense in front of him. Can’t comment there, just something to think about.
Matt Cooke? No, not really.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 24, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know if all of Huet’s success was him or the determination of the defense in front of him. Can’t comment there, just something to think about.
Even if it was the determination of the defense in front of him, wouldn’t you rather the far more determined group than the presumably less-determined one?
As for balance of scoring, this past year’s team had nine 10+, five 20+ and three 30+ goal scorers, while 2007-08 had ten 10+ guys (though that included Feds and Cooke), three 20+ guys and one 30+ guy. No question this year’s squad was more balanced.
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by J.P. on Jun 24, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want whichever group wins :)
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 24, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They both won – 108 points vs. 108.9, 50 wins vs. 49.7.
2007-08’s team was much better disciplined both in terms of penalties (big difference there) and defensively (shots against, for example, and I’d anecdotally say in quality of shots allowed as well), and the result was the big difference in GAA.
Again, they were playing for more during the regular season, and that focused them, which is why I think they’d be more ready for this match up.
This year’s Caps barely survived the Rangers. They would not have survived last year’s Caps, imo.
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by J.P. on Jun 24, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They both won – 108 points vs. 108.9, 50 wins vs. 49.7.
Hopefully this in and of itself makes some people reconsider their 8s and 9s from this morning.
by Bald Pollack on Jun 24, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, I’m sticking with my vote. Voting based on what-ifs and what-might-have-beens is definitely a sign of the offseason. Frankly, I’m more interested in what happens next season.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 24, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
See you then?
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by J.P. on Jun 24, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regarding discipline: I wonder how much of that was the players disciplining themselves.
Next season … I had a crazy thought that will probably get shot down by the moguls on this board. How many Cups has Boudreau won without Woods at his right hand, so to speak? Anywhere? It strikes me that maybe Bruce Boudreau is a players’ coach and needs the blackguard behind the curtain to fill in his weaknesses and add what he’s missing.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 24, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regarding discipline: I wonder how much of that was the players disciplining themselves.
What do you mean by that?
As for the Woods addition, I think what you’re getting it is what we all hope for – someone who compliments, rather than merely reinforces, Boudreau.
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by J.P. on Jun 24, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One comment that Woods made at the Bears celebration was that he “didn’t have to drive [the players], they drove themselves”. I was wondering if that was true of the ‘07-’08 Caps, but not the ‘08-’09 Caps, and if that was the difference. I agree that Boudreau doesn’t seem to be much of a whipcracker – but maybe one wasn’t needed on ‘07-’08? That’s what I’m trying to get at.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 24, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gotcha, and I tend to agree that the carrot in 07-08 was the playoffs, and there was no (regular season) carrot after Thanksgiving or so this year. Of course, this gets back to this morning’s post on Bruce and how it’s really his job to keep them focused throughout so that bad habits don’t form like they did.
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by J.P. on Jun 24, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Talent-wise I think it’s a tossup, in large part because I don’t know what to think of this year’s goaltending. But I think last year’s team played with more energy, was better out of the gate, made fewer mistakes, and was one of those team’s that had that killer instinct this year’s team lacked – and that’s exactly the type of team this year’s squad struggled against.
by David M. Getz on Jun 24, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed. Related, I think last year’s team (in part thanks to Cooke, of whom I’m generally not a big fan) forechecked harder and would give this year’s squad some fits.
And I think last year’s goaltending (Huet) was stronger or at least more proven. Put another way, if I could pick among Jose Theodore, Simeon Varlamov and Cristobal Huet to try to stop Ovie, Backstrom, Semin and Green, I’m pretty sure I’m taking Huet.
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by J.P. on Jun 24, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and would give this year’s squad some fits.
Would give? In fact, did give this year’s squad fits.
by Sct112 on Jun 24, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is why I voted for 2007-2008. I never had issues with energy, effort, desire to win, discipline, etc. And quite honestly I feel like last year’s team would’ve beaten the Penguins this year if they played like they did from Game 5 against the Flyers onward.
by red army line on Jun 24, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Ovie was money in the playoffs this year, not so much last year…
-d
by meep_42 on Jun 24, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2008-2009.
Why?
NIcklas Backstrom.
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jun 24, 2009 12:38 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
That’s my take. An extra year of development for AO, Backstrom, and Green would be the difference.
by Fehr and Balanced on Jun 24, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just ran it through whatifsports once… the ‘08-’09 team won 3-1 on goals from Ovi (2) and Flash. Ovi scored the long goal for ‘07-’08, and Varly stopped 37 out of 38 shots (Huet was 45 for 48 at the other end).
Damn, does that sound like an entertaining hockey game.
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by J.P. on Jun 24, 2009 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Did any defensemen dress?
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jun 25, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When is the game being played?
Beginning of season – 08-09 wins
Down the stretch – 07-08 plows over a disinterested 08-09 team which takes 5 hooking penalties
by Stormblue on Jun 24, 2009 1:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It’s Game #83 of the respective season for each team.
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by J.P. on Jun 24, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then the team with the healthy Mike Green wins. The team with the injured Mike Green can’t clear the zone.
by Fehr and Balanced on Jun 24, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want Oct – Jan of 08-09 and Feb – Apr of 07-08. Also in my dream world, the mad run at the end of the 07-08 season includes the Game 7 victory in round 1 of 08-09.
That said, while frustrating at times, if I had to pick the full season, I’d go with 08-09.
Here’s hoping a little more experience lessens the frustration level of 09-10.
by Ames on Jun 24, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How about just Dec-Jan 08-09, because then you get the good goaltending too.
by red army line on Jun 24, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I was trying to get a whole season in there, and for me, despite the goaltending, Oct/Nov 08 was easier to watch than Oct/Nov 07. The whole – the rebuild is over, we’re ready to go, then pretty much same old, same old until Thanksgiving was just so disheartening.
by Ames on Jun 24, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m pretty sure that being forced to watch Oct/Nov 07 met the Geneva Convention definitions of torture, though the Bush Administration has already declared that DoJ advised them that it was legal and therefore they did nothing wrong.
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by J.P. on Jun 24, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but enduring the early part of the 07/08 season is what made the end so damn sweet.
07-08 is my favorite Caps season of all time, and I’ve been a fan since the late 80’s.
by Stormblue on Jun 24, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It really was one hell of a ride.
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by J.P. on Jun 24, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So if this is as easy and obvious an answer as the voting is making it out to be, what does Semin mean when he says, “In my opinion we played better last season?”
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by J.P. on Jun 24, 2009 1:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think it’s a reference to the fire and killer instinct more than anything else.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 24, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All the more reason that squad was better.
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by J.P. on Jun 24, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And further to that point…
Record when leading after two periods (regular season):
2007-08 (includes Hanlon’s Caps): 27-1-2
2008-09: 33-3-2
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by J.P. on Jun 24, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I needed a 4-goal comeback win, this year’s team. They had more potential to do great things, in my opinion. But 07-08 got the job done more often than not, and got the wins they were supposed to, beating up on SE teams and other lowly squads like they were supposed to.
by red army line on Jun 24, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Last year’s team wouldn’t have found itself down four goals (unless Olie was in net… sigh).
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by J.P. on Jun 24, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So what changed with the defense? Was it just desire? Were they still feeling the effects of Hanlon and it took a summer for Bruce’s run and gun to sink in? All discipline? As you pointed out, it was the same group.
by Sct112 on Jun 24, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think last year’s team with this year’s playoff opponents would have destroyed the East. Possibly vice versa, even.
by DrinkingPartner on Jun 24, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah but I’m not so sure that 07-08 would beat the 08-09 Bruins, Red Wings, Devils in January like the 08-09 Caps did.
by Scott in Shaw on Jun 24, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m gonna be contrary. I picked 2007-2008— I think they definitely had more fire in the belly, especially when they really needed it.
Shields up full.
"I tried to capture the spirit of the thing"
by tuvanhillbilly on Jun 24, 2009 1:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Funny – I think you, DMG and I all picked last year’s team. Looks like it’s writers vs. readers day at The Rink.
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by J.P. on Jun 24, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It wasn’t an immediate or super obvious choice for me— I had to ruminate on it it. But in the end I thought of it like a bar-brawl— who would I want by my side? And I think last year’s team was hungrier, grittier, and je ne sais quois-ier.
"I tried to capture the spirit of the thing"
by tuvanhillbilly on Jun 24, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Voted for the 07-08 team based on that last sentence, along with the reduced chance of blowing a game with an HHT.
by Bald Pollack on Jun 24, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As did I :) Mostly for the oft-cited reasons of discipline, desperation, and Matt Cooke.
by Stephen Pepper on Jun 24, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How can anyone decry our discipline in the same sentence as yearning for Matt Cooke? Matt Cooke is garbage. He wouldn’t have made us a better team this year. Tell me where you would have played him that would have made us better? Our failure was in our top 6 Forwards, not our checkers. Steckel/Bradley/Laich was a great line and I honestly don’t see Matt Cooke making that line any better by replacing any of those guys. He takes more penalties than Bradley, can’t skate as well as Bradley, won’t stick up for his teammates like Bradley, and is cheap (not talking about his salary) and dirty. I don’t want that guy on our team. I begrudgingly acknowledge his contributions to the 07-08 team but I guarantee that if we had a greater sample size with him he would have taken some terrible PIMs that would have taken the shine off. Yeah, we got some of his best hockey and now he has a Cup ring, but let’s not pretend Matt Cooke is any kind of difference maker.
by Fehr and Balanced on Jun 24, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
We’ll never know about a full season, but Cooke was a tenacious forechecker and, yeah, a bit dirty. (Just like Kunitz – who did impact the outcome of the series with the Caps this spring.) He might not be an exemplary player, but the sandpaper grain on this past season’s squad was a bit too fine.
And I wholeheartedly agreed with the decision to resign Bradley over Cooke going into 2008-09, but the 2007-08 team featured both, and that’s the comparison we were making here.
by Stephen Pepper on Jun 24, 2009 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kunitz is a far better player than Cooke, I don’t see the comparison. Kunitz is a top 6 guy who will forecheck, something 08-09 team needed. Cooke is a bottom 6 checker, something 08-09 already had. Kunitz would definitely have helped us, I still dispute that Cooke would have added anything to the 08-09 team. I agree that the sandpaper grain on the 08-09 team was too fine but I think it was too fine mostly in the top 6 forwards.
by Fehr and Balanced on Jun 25, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If only Fleischmann’s nickname was, instead, Smash. Or Crash. Or Killer.
by Stephen Pepper on Jun 25, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m with you man, I voted for 07/08 cause that season meant more. We experienced it all – beating the best team in the league (ottawa) then hitting rock bottom, needing a bit of luck then winning the division on the last day of the season. Incredible run.
The 08/09 season we had much higher expectations, and were more frustrated cause if we had won a game, well we didn’t win ‘good enough’. It felt like we needed more style points this year.
I’m also the same guy that enjoyed Va Tech’s 2004 ACC championship season more then the going 11-1 and losing to FSU in the naitonal championship. We fought harder in ’04 then in ’99 (yet if we had beat FSU, then this would not be a question).
All this said, I hope in a few years we have this discussion but about which Cup we enjoyed more.
by vt caps fan on Jun 24, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
08-09. Survived the 3-1 deficit and took the eventual champs to seven. Choosing between the two is tough though.
Capitals Kremlin the second line center of the Caps blogosphere.
by CapitalsKremlin on Jun 24, 2009 1:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Also survived a 3-1 deficit against a 7 seed.
by Bald Pollack on Jun 24, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn’t it really all about the playoffs though? Regular season accolades are nice but…
This years team didn’t show any fire down the stretch in the regular season and fire definitely wasn’t lacking in 07-08. But both teams had enough heart and grit to make it to a 7th game in the first series. 08-09, with the same players, had fire and desire to finish that series with a win. (granted a weaker opponent in 08-09)
Also, do you think that last years Caps would have had a chance against the Pens in either year? Its still a sour taste for me, but the Pens used two OT Caps’ own goals to move foward, and it still took 7 games.
by Sct112 on Jun 24, 2009 1:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
FWIW, the celebration on the left at the top of the post, when they beat FLA in the last game of the season, was magical. So too was the celebration on the right, when Steckel tipped in the game-winner in Game 6 in Pittsburgh. Push.
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by J.P. on Jun 24, 2009 2:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Feds goal last year will be my most enduring Caps moment for a long time (or hopefully not so long a time if big shiny kitchenware is involved).
by Scott in Shaw on Jun 24, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
08-09 by a nose for me, and only because of the afterburner of a round 1 victory. The 07-08 run reminded me, at the time, of the same feelings I harbored during our cup run in 1998 (without all the expectations).
from the house that Red Jesus built
by bigonetimer on Jun 24, 2009 2:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m more worried about if I have to pick the 07-08 and 08-09 Caps over the 09-10 Caps.
by zephyr on Jun 24, 2009 4:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i picked 08-09, and it’s because i had the same feeling both years. just get through this team, and the bracket opens up. but the penguins were better than the flyers. and really what i remember from the philly series was defensive miscues galore. i don’t think we did that too much after game 4 of the rangers series. 08-09 would’ve feasted on those errors (i’m remembering jurcina’s pass in front of our net and shaone’s stumble in game 3 vs philly).
by alexthe8 on Jun 24, 2009 4:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So, if you voted for ‘07-08 — if you were to grade this year’s team as a Rink Wrap, they’d get a 5 or less? I’d think you’d have to have expected the exact same thing as last year’s Gabby numbers, right?
Maybe it just makes me sad to think that there was no improvement, and possibly some regression, with this talented of a team. And, if there was that stagnation/regression this year, how can we possibly “expect” a trip to the Finals next season?
-d
by meep_42 on Jun 24, 2009 4:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It’s easily 08-09. Doesn’t mean they were necessarily more exciting – no question the stretch run last year was. But this year’s teams won boring games with ease – reminiscent of the late 90s Red Wings. Always winning 2-1, 3-2, 4-3. Never dominating, just confident enough that they’d always be one goal better. And there were plenty of boring games down the stretch – this team phoned it in from February on until the 2nd week of the playoffs. And they still finished 2nd in the conference.
by katzistan on Jun 24, 2009 5:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I have no hesitation in choosing the 08-09 Caps. I don’t know that the previous year’s team was better in any facet of the game (except that the stud savior goalie played more in the regular season), though I’m sure there are stats out there that show they were. The 08-09 Caps played better in big games and did better in the playoffs (really the only criterion that matters to me in the grand scheme of things), while also showing the endurance to lead the division essentially the entire season. 07-08 was a thrill ride for sure, but the 08-09 Caps were a better team in my mind.
The (calendar year) 2008 Caps might be the best of all of them, though.
by grapejoos on Jun 24, 2009 6:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think your point about the Caps playing better in big games is key. In ‘08-’09, I can think of only one game, the road contest at San Jose, where I felt the Caps really had no shot going in (admittedly partly due to injuries). Other than that, I honestly felt like the Caps had a better than average shot to win every game this past season, a feeling I did not have in ‘07-’08, even during the stretch run.
by Cluster on Jun 24, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ahem…
Signed,
Steve Mason
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jun 25, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I picked 08-09. I think some teams took the 07-08 squad lightly. I don’t think anyone took the 08-09 squad lightly. This year’s team had a tougher path to travel, just because expectations were higher.
It’s funny, I think the 07-08 squad would have had an easier time with the 08-09 Rangers in the playoffs than this year’s squad did. But I think the 08-09 squad would have beaten the 07-08 Flyers — and probably in less than 7 games. A lot of last year’s playoff loss was inexperience.
For what it’s worth, I don’t think the 07-08 team would have been any better against the 08-09 Penguins. I think Huet would have crumpled.
by Gould Old Days on Jun 24, 2009 7:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 22 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15 |
|
Atlanta
|
12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
|
Florida
|
14 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 11 |
|
Carolina
|
15 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 7 |
(updated 11.7.2009 at 9:10 AM EST)
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