The draft ain't just about luck.

by Bald Pollack on Jun 22, 2009 12:04 PM EDT

When I saw this from OFB the other day, along with the quote "are hands down the best drafting team in their division, and one of the best in the Eastern conference if not the league", naturally I got a little skeptical. There is no doubt that the future is bright, and the drafting in recent years appears to be pretty good, but let's face facts: George McPhee simply needs to be better at drafting. Consider this:

Since 2002, the Caps have had 65 picks over 7 drafts, or an average of 9.28 picks per draft. Of those picks, five have played over 200 NHL games (Steve Eminger, Alexander Semin, Boyd Gordon, Alexander Ovechkin, Mike Green), while two have played over 150 (Jeff Schultz, Nicklas Backstrom). Of those guys, Green is not the lowest pick among the group (29th in the 2004 draft), and the lowest pick on the team's active roster regardless of games played or year selected.

Now, let's compare some other Eastern playoff teams' success, using crude addition skills:

Pittsburgh: 58 picks (8 per draft), 7 over 200 (Maxime Talbot, Sidney Crosby, Eric Christensen, Ryan Whitney, Marc-Andre Fleury, Jordan Staal, Evgeni Malkin) 0 over 150, lowest pick actively playing (Talbot, 234th (8th round) in 2002).

Philadelphia: 57 picks (8.14/draft), 3 over 200 (Joni Pitkanen, Mike Richards, Jeff Carter), lowest pick actively playing (Antero Niittymaki, 6th round/168th in 1998).

Boston: 50 picks (7.14/draft), 2 over 200 (Marc Bergeron, Phil Kessel), 1 over 150 (Brad Stuart, though Milan Lucic (149) and David Krejci (144) are hot on his heels), lowest pick actively playing (P.J. Axelsson, 7th round/177th overall in 1995).

Carolina: 46 picks (6.57/draft), 3 over 200 (Eric Staal, Cam Ward, Andrew Ladd), 0 over 150, lowest pick actively playing (Erik Cole, 3rd round/71st overall in 1998).

Now let's look at the perceived crown jewels of drafting, New Jersey and Detroit:

New Jersey: 55 picks (7.86/draft), 2 over 200 (Zach Parise, Travis Zajac), 1 over 150 (Cam Janssen), lowest pick actively playing (Brian Gionta, 3rd round/82nd overall in 1998)

Detroit: 53 picks (7.57/draft) 3 over 200 (Juri Hudler, Johan Franzen, Valtteri Filppula), 1 over 150 (Tomas Fleischmann), lowest pick actively playing (Tomas Holmstrom, 10th round/257th overall in 1994. As an aside, since 1990, the Wings have drafted 5 guys in the 6th round or later that have played more than 400 career NHL games. THAT'S using your scouting department).

So what does all this mean? Well, George McPhee has had some good drafts recently, and we hope the trees continue to bear fruit for a long time, but the fact of the matter is, it seems like he's done OK in the first round, better than others in fact.

But aren't you supposed to do well with first round picks? And, moreover, if other teams are striking gold later in the draft, why isn't McPhee doing the same?

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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You read my mind, BP – it’s easy to over-rate what GMGM has done due to a couple of Top 5 homeruns, Mike Green, and the promise of Carlson and the goalies (all of which are great, of course).

But the jury is either still very much out on most all of his picks or in with a bad verdict. Take a look here for some more interesting draft analysis, and you start to realize that GMGM has been average, at best. How many pre-lockout draft picks were on the roster last year? Two (Semin and Gordon)? Etc.

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by J.P. on Jun 22, 2009 12:25 PM EDT reply actions

I’d be lying if I said that (and the subsequent Mirtle link) didn’t infuence me a little. As four years didn’t seem to be representative enough, and a dozen seemed a little long, hence the ’02 starting point.

by Bald Pollack on Jun 22, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions

And let us not forget that there was a time not too long ago that a lot of people expected Steve Eminger to be a top four and PP quarterback guy, Brian Sutherby to be the next captain, and Matt Pettinger to be part of the team’s long term plans.

by David Getz on Jun 22, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

And Sasha Pokuluk was an off-the-board steal.

I have as many wins in a Capitals uniform as Michael Belhumeur does.

by marky narc on Jun 23, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t ever remember thinking that…

by David Getz on Jun 23, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: the problem with this type of analysis is, for all we know the problem(s) have already been fixed. GMGM was bad at drafting 4,5,6 years ago. We know that he’s found some very promising players more recently, and that’s all we know.

It’s not fair to say he is bad at drafting (just as it’s not fair to say he is good), it’s fair to say he was bad and that there’s skepticism over his improvement, or that there’s optimism, or whatever. We really don’t know if he’s transformed into a good drafter. We don’t even know if the transformation (should it take place) will be permanent. Maybe he only hits in even-numbered years?

All I mean to say is, be optimistic, be pessimistic, be whatever you want. We really have no idea how any of this is going to turn out, because the track-record to tell us anything about his current ability hasn’t been established yet. The best thing we can say, for certain, is that our farm system now is ahead of what it was 5+ years ago, and truthfully that may be enough to turn GMGM into a “good drafter” even if his scouting doesn’t improve dramatically. The difference between a good prospect and a bust is, all too often, how you develop them.

by brs03 on Jun 22, 2009 12:49 PM EDT reply actions

GMGM was bad at drafting 4,5,6 years ago. We know that he’s found some very promising players more recently, and that’s all we know.

Of McPhee, Ross Mahoney and Brian MacLellan, MacLellan is the “noob,” and has been AGM/Player Personnel Director for 3 years, if I read the bio right. And to borrow a metaphor, just because Ross Mahoney signed the Rolling Stones, he still passed on the Who and Jimi Hendrix.

I’m not going to burn McPhee in effigy, but I’m just saying that you’d think with no movement in arguably the two most important FO roles for a decade, there would be a few more hits than misses. That said, if from ’06 on, things tend to be drastically different, then sautee my words in olive oil and garlic with a few onions.

by Bald Pollack on Jun 22, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s my point. What if 04, or 06, etc. becomes our best draft ever? Does GMGM all of the sudden become a great drafter for something that happened 3 or 4 or more years ago?

The Caps are (apparently) spending more on drafting now than they did many years ago, and that’s probably why we have so many “promising” later picks. But it’s still a gamble even if the scouting is sound.

by brs03 on Jun 22, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s my point. What if 04, or 06, etc. becomes our best draft ever? Does GMGM all of the sudden become a great drafter for something that happened 3 or 4 or more years ago?

Well let’s look at ’04. GMGM hits with 3 picks in the first round. By comparison, Boston got Krejci with a 2, Versteeg with a 5 and Hunwick with a 7. Pittsburgh got Malkin, Goligoski with a 2 and Kennedy with a 4. The Rangers got Dubinsky with a 2 and Callahan with a 4.

When you consider that nobody McPhee has EVER drafted after Round 2 (save Johnny Oduya) has played more than 25 games, that’s a problem. Which again brings me to the questions I asked earlier.

by Bald Pollack on Jun 23, 2009 7:39 AM EDT up reply actions

What if Bourque and A. Gordon have respectable NHL careers? What about Lepisto? What if Yunkov actually does something in this league? Does that all of the sudden mean he was a good drafter back then?

by brs03 on Jun 23, 2009 8:20 AM EDT up reply actions

It means all of the sudden he had an exceptionally good draft. But “good drafter” and “good draft” are vastly different things.

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by J.P. on Jun 23, 2009 8:28 AM EDT up reply actions

True enough, didn’t mean to imply otherwise. My point is, our opinion of him (at least in part) will have changed in an instant, even though the actions took place 5+ years ago. And we won’t know if its because he got lucky or if its because he got smarter, at least until we have another year or two to examine subsequent drafts.

If 04 and 06 turn out to be decent later-round drafts (what would that entail? Osala, Gordon, Perreault becoming NHLers in some form or another?) is that enough to say there’s promise? Is that enough to say he/the staff have become good at it?

I’m cool with skepticism. But I’m also cool with optimism. Frankly, whether you believe GMGM has turned things around or believe he hasn’t, it’s a shot in the dark either way. Until we know how 04 turns out (and why it turns out that way) we probably don’t know whether or not he could hit on any picks back then. Until we find out how 06 turns out (and why) we probably don’t know whether there’s a pattern to his abilities. Until we find out how 07 or 08 turn out we probably don’t know how solid his track record has become. Until then its all just speculation, and that’s going to come down to personal opinion more often than not.

by brs03 on Jun 23, 2009 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions

To be fair, I think that he has done well in turning things around. Tossing out the ‘08 draft as presumably Baby Gus and Carlson won’t be on the big club roster, McPhee has had 12 first round picks in 6 drafts. Save for the ‘05 draft, every first rounder he’s picked is (or is projected to be) on the big club, 10 in total. That’s something to be proud of. But wait:

Boston has had 5 first rounders, 4 have seen pro time.

All 6 of Pittsburgh’s first rounders are on pro rosters.

All 6 of Carolina’s first rounders are (or have been) in the bigs.

6 of Philly’s first rounders are (or have been) in the bigs, and that excludes Van Riemsdyk, who might have a shot at staying up next year.

So yeah, he’s doing well with pick’s he’s supposed to do well on. But so is everybody else.

If 04 and 06 turn out to be decent later-round drafts (what would that entail? Osala, Gordon, Perreault becoming NHLers in some form or another?) is that enough to say there’s promise?

I’d suggest that an NHLer should play at least 150 games (200 tops) before he’s serviceable. And yeah, the jury’s out on Osala, Perrault, SDR. But it’s also out on Machesney, Macneill and Leffler.

Is that enough to say he/the staff have become good at it?

Based on promise? Maybe. Based on results through the years? Not so much.

by Bald Pollack on Jun 23, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions

by David Getz on Jun 23, 2009 11:47 AM EDT reply actions

Here’s GMGM’s scorecard.

by Scott in Shaw on Jun 23, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

God bless the internet.

by David Getz on Jun 23, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions

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