2008-09 Rink Wrap: Tom Poti
From Alzner to Varlamov, we're taking a look at and grading the 2008-09 season for every player who laced 'em up for the Caps for a significant number of games during the campaign, with an eye towards 2009-10. Next up, Tom Poti.
Key Stats: Poti led the Caps in shifts-per-game in both the regular season (27.3) and playoffs (31.4), and was third on the team (behind Alex Ovechkin and Mike Green) in special teams time on ice per game.
Interesting Stat: Poti has never had ten goals and a plus-rating in the same season (though he's accomplished the former three times and the latter five times).
The Good: On a team that couldn't stay out of the penalty box, Poti somehow managed to, registering the fewest penalty minutes (both raw and per game) of any season in his career, despite the second-highest per game ice time of the team's blueliners and playing against the toughest competition of any Cap at five-aside. He led all Caps (who played at least 27 games) in blocked shots per game and was second to Shaone Morrisonn among Caps defenders (who played at least ten games) in takeaway-to-giveaway ratio. And he was honest about the quality of the ice at Verizon Center, which always endears a guy to us.
Poti raised his game in the post-season (despite a broken foot), scoring his first career playoff goal and playing to an 11-goal/29-assist/plus-46 82-game pace (but see below), though his spring may be best-remembered for Evgeni Malkin's Game 5 overtime goal that deflected off a sliding Poti's stick and past Simeon Varlamov.
The Bad: In 123 regular season games for the Caps, Poti now has just five goals, which is fewer than he's scored in half his individual NHL seasons, and his 0.19 assist-per-game rate in 2008-09 was the worst of any campaign in his career. Poti, who had 26 extra man helpers two seasons ago (10th in the NHL), was second among Caps rearguards in power-play ice time, but had fewer power-play assists than Sami Lepisto and just one more than Brian Pothier. He took fewer shots per game than John Erskine. He created fewer goals (both raw and per game) than in any of his previous nine NHL seasons, took more than 25% fewer shots on goal per game than in any prior season, and suffered through an absolutely hideous stretch of 30 games to end the regular season in which he didn't score a single goal, had just three assists and a meager twenty shots on goal, leading some (read: us) to speculate aloud about a possible injury when the reality is probably more painful - Tom Poti simply isn't a reliable offensive contributor any longer. (And don't be fooled by his playoff totals - outside of a brilliant Game 6 against his old buddies at Madison Square Garden, Poti had a goal and two assists in 13 games.)
Aside from his downright offensive offensive numbers, Poti had fewer hits per game than any Caps defensman (yes, including Jeff Schultz) and had the highest five-on-five GAON/60 of any Caps defenseman (but, again, this was against tougher competition than his teammates were facing).
The Vote: Rate Poti below on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best) based on his performance relative to his potential and your expectations for the season - if he had the best year you could have imagined him having, give him a 10; if he more or less played as you expected he would, give him a 5 or a 6; if he had the worst year you could have imagined him having, give him a 1.
The Discussion: In what role would you like to see Poti in 2009-10? What will it take for him to earn a 10 rating next year?
146 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
The bad for Poti was a little worse than I thought. The good was exactly where I expected it to be.
I may be the only one, but after Green’s breakout last year, I didn’t expect Poti to be our offensive D-man at all. So in other words, I got what I expected, a guy who put defense first. For the most part, this seemed to work, when healthy, he always looked like our strongest defenseman. When healthy, you always had a sigh of relief when he was out there on the PK. For those reasons, he got a 7 from me. He concentrated on defense, and did very well with it. He was very effective without taking penalties, had a lot of regular and special teams time, and was a + rating. Pretty much what you want out of a top two pairing guy.
To get a 10 next year, Poti would have to continue his trend on focusing on the D. Keep the penalties low, and decrease the even strength goals. Hit a bit more. And, while I’m not looking for Green numbers, I think 25 points would be a nice place for Poti to be if he is still our shutdown defender.
HOS,
You said it exactly. It seemed clear to me at the end of last season that Poti’s game had changed, whether by concious decision or organicly. I feel that Poti’s done a decent job at being a defensive defensemen and could continue to get better.
For a 10 I’d also add bringing up and mentoring a young defensemen through the season or providing the D back up pairing with Green most of the season.
I can see Poti doing the mentoring, although I wonder if the mentor might be Pothier instead. The Hershey guys already know Potsy from his brief stint in Hershey and his time spent hanging out at the rink while he was injured. In fact, Alzner said at one point that Pothier had given him some pointers while he was in Washington.
So I guess the pairings could look something like this:
Poti – Green
Alzner – Jurcina
Pothier – Erskine / Schultz
Schultz / Erskine
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
MetalCap
I don’t think you can use organicly on a hockey board. Pretty sure it’s in the handbook.
Gave Poti a 7 but probably should have made it a 6. With those numbers you have to wonder why he’s on the PP at all.
Caps fan since the '70's.
what other D man are you going to put out there, though? Green can’t (shouldn’t) play the full 2 minutes. Poti, when he was healthy, a rarity this season unfortunately, plays a good defensive game and did the nice little things like keeping the puck in the zone and stayed back to play responsible defense. For 2008-2009, who else would you throw out there on the PP? The D options were limited.
With Green having emerged, no one expected Poti to put up big offensive numbers, but his numbers were just ghastly, considering both his history and his salary.
That said, he play an entirely different role than he had when he was a scorer, and I’m not sure who would have played all those big minutes as well.
I haven’t voted yet, but am leaning 5 – the lower end of expectations, because there has to be some offense and there simply wasn’t.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Yeah, if you expected offensive numbers, then his number is going to be low for you on the expectation level of this poll.
However, do you remember that stretch where the caps hadn’t killed a penalty in what…13 straight games? When Poti came back from groin injury, that complete feeling of relief when he was back there on the PK, calmly holding and clearing the puck, making it look easy to actually not get scored on. That right there is easily worth his salary.
by HateOffSeason on Jun 15, 2009 7:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Make that giving up a goal on the PK 13 straight games…not hadn’t killed a single penalty in 13 games.
by HateOffSeason on Jun 15, 2009 7:37 AM EDT up reply actions
You were quick to discount what many of us agreed was a likely injury/injury-related inability to shoot/etc. Not so sure I’d be so quick to discount that…
I was quick to discount it because I didn’t hear word one about it when all the injury news came out in the early days of the post-season. So there’s “I think he was hurt – he sure looked hurt” and “If he was hurt, wouldn’t we have heard about it?” I think the burden of proof here is on the “he’s hurt” crowd.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I can’t believe that anyone gave this bum anything higher than a 5. Tom Poti was signed here to be a puck moving defensemen, a guy who could create some scoring chances from the blueline. He has done almost squat for 2 years, TWO YEARS at $3.5M per. He isn’t physical, in fact shies away from contact. Perfect example, instead of knocking Crosby out of the crease area in game 2 of the PIT/WAS series he decides to have a sword fight with him and somehow trips and allows Crosby’s 3rd goal, a perfect example of what we get from Poti. At this point he only good on the PK, he does nothing to merit $3.5M per season even man up or on the PP. If I were GM, I’d ship him out of here and use that $3.5+ and sign Mike Komisarek.
He’s so terrible, and yet there’d be another GM in the League who’d take him off our hands for $3.5m/year?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
You have it in for me, I get it, so does everybody else.
If I were GM…
I’d try to unload Poti. Maybe package Poti, a prospect and you for another young prospect.
Let Morrison go…
I would not resign Fedorov for anything more than $2M a yr for 1…
Make offers to Jurcina, Schultz, Fehr, Gordon…
I’d do whatever I could to sign Mike Komisarek to 4yr $18M contract.
Ovechkin/Backstrom/Fehr
Laich/Aucoin/Semin
Flash/Steckel/Clark
Beagle/Gordon/Bradley
Green/Komi
Pothier/Schultz
Alzner/Jurcina
Finally! Someone who wants to see a trade who actually puts the traded player in their projected lineup. Great job.
No real issues with that defensive lineup if it happens…think you are still gonna be stuck with Poti on that 2nd pairing though.
Love Aucoin, but he would scare me as a 2nd line center, unless Laich is gonna take all the faceoffs. Other than that, haven’t seen enough of him to know how he would do as a 2nd line center.
I think Flash on line 3 would be a nightmare, but I’m not sure where else you are gonna put him. And he might do well on a line where he is the offensive focus and 2 guys can crash the net. Just don’t see him in any kind of puck control mode and cycle and forecheck like we want to see on line 3.
Would love to see Osala in there somewhere. I know he is just a rookie, but has great size and energy. Seemed like you noticed him in game 6 the other night, whenever he hit the ice. Perhaps he would look good in Flash’s spot on line 3. Then what in the world do you do with Flash? Hate to just lose a 20 goal guy who is cheap.
by HateOffSeason on Jun 15, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
There’s real problems in the forward lines in this lineup, IMO. Only three of the top six forwards are guys who I feel confident belon there – Fehr and Laich are iffy and Aucoin’s an AHLer – so I think that’s the more pressing needs. With so many questions among the forwards and at least eight NHL caliber defensemen on the team I think the priority has to be a second line center or first line right wing.
I agree with you. None of those players are currently on the roster. Kris Versteeg should be available, he’s a young solid RW. C’s, Chris Higgins MTL?
Fehr hasn’t been given a chance to play on the top lines with creative pivots. Fehr on the top line in 82 games could be a 25/30 guy IMO.
Anyone know if MTL may be willing to move Andrei Kostitsyn?
by red army line on Jun 15, 2009 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not a fan of Poti with his big butt-end and his 12 foot long hockey stick. He plays a lot of minutes and does OK. On this team, playing that many minutes, with such gifted offensive players, you would think his assists would at least be racked up a bit more regularly.
I remember him being signed to the Caps as a PP quarterback. I know he isn’t in that roll now but I honestly don’t think he could perform that roll even if he was given the chance..
He got a 4 from me. I expected\wanted a solid dman after last season and for him to get about 35 points. This season we sort of got solid D with the added bonus of being soft in the crease (Now with more score on yourself flavor!)
I think the PP is more a result of the team’s strategy being built around a right-shot at the point rather than Poti being bad. See the Minnesota game, for example.
by red army line on Jun 15, 2009 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions
123 Games 5G 37A +12
136 Games 6G 24A +25
These are 2 stat lines from two of our defensemen over a 2 year period. One player is a 11yr veteran and has made $7.0M over those two years and somehow gets a free pass on under performing, the other player has played just over 2 years of NHL hockey and repeatedly gets clubbed by fans while posting similar if/not better numbers, taking less penalties, having more hits and making less than 1/4 of that $7.0M.
Schultz love (or something close to it)!
Also worth noting (at least in terms of offensive production) – over that span, Poti had 263:35 on the PP and Schultz had 29:17.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
No, the problem is that Poti is supposed to create opportunities and Schultz’s isn’t, in fact, any scoring from Schultz has to be considered a plus. Poti has not done his job that he was brought here to do period, end of story. And at $3.5M per, there hundreds of players that can do what Poti has done for us making less than $1.0M per season. Poti’s pp minutes should be cut to 00:00.
Poti has not done his job that he was brought here to do period, end of story.
Yeah, but if that job has been drastically reduced, you’ve got to look at his 5v5 more. He had 263:35 of PP time in the last two years with the Caps. Compare that to his time with the Rangers, where he had 227:09 in his last year before moving to the Island.
Would I like him to be more offensively involved? Absolutely, but the days of him QBing any man advantage are few and far between, so I’ll settle for some more noise on 5v5 opportunities.
by Bald Pollack on Jun 15, 2009 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
If your name isn’t Mike Green, and you were a Capitals defenseman, you didn’t have a goal — not one — in the regular season.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Huh? Do you mean just on the PP?
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Oh, okay. Sorry, you had me going for a minute there.
I wonder how much of that is because Boudreau likes to put four forwards and a D on his PP, and how much of that is not drawing a shocking amount of penalties. Between the two, your other D-men really aren’t seeing a whole lot of PP time, especially when Greenie won’t get off the freakin’ ice like he’s been known to not do.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I think the team—with the talent they have—should go to a two-unit PP next year, like Detroit. That’ll help with ice times in the playoffs too.
by red army line on Jun 15, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions
If you read everything else I wrote hear you’ll know I don’t really want\care about Poti on the PP too. All that doesn’t have anything to do with me not wanting Shultz out there.
And at $3.5M per, there hundreds of players that can do what Poti has done for us making less than $1.0M per season.
I don’t buy it. At any given time there are about 200-240 defensemen on NHL rosters. I seriously doubt there are as many guys out there are there are already on NHL rosters who can do better than Poti at a lower price.
If you take him off the PP, who do you use to replace his minutes?
But I think Schultz had 5 goals under Hanlon, none after…
by red army line on Jun 15, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Key with Poti is his “competition” numbers. The guy logs a ton of minutes against the best the other team has to offer and he doesn’t turn the puck over.
I feel he improved as a pure defensive player over last season, and with hardly any PP time (and when he does get it, it’s with the 2nd unit) I did not expect him to produce much in the offensive category.
His 3.5 is quite worth the calming influence he has on the blue line during 4v5 situations, and contrary to JSchon’s feelings, preventing the other team’s top flight scorers from putting the puck in the back of the net creates opportunities for the whole team.
Since you mention quality of team and quality of competition ...
Here’s some food for thought.
Corsi, 5v5 (Schultz): 4.0
Corsi, 5v5 (Poti): 5.6
Corsi, 5v4 (Schultz): 34.5
Corsi, 5v4 (Poti): 85.7
Corsi, 4v5 (Schultz): -82.3
Corsi, 4v5 (Poti): -91.7
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Corsi’s a funny one to me… It’s a stat that can be inflated quickly based on minutes played and situation.
It’s a stat that really should be “Corsi Per Minute” in the situations provided, to which Schlutz and Poti are separated by only -.01 corsi/min 4v5.
Schlutz? Cue the message board dysphemisms XD
An interesting point .. but much more so on the PP, which admittedly I don’t think Schultz is especially suited for.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Schultz has gotten 12 seconds per game on the PP over the past two seasons. His PP numbers are completely and totally irrelevant.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Jun 15, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Here’s something fun maybe you have time to dig up.
Qual Comp could be easily skewed by home vs away games. Did Poti play significantly more games home vs away?
I also wonder how a low games-played affects qual comp. Less chance to normalize to 0 (which is what it seems that stat does).
Poti played in 27 home games, 25 on the road
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jun 15, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Especially considering we could see Gordon out there in the final 20 secs of a PP after the top unit goes off.
by red army line on Jun 15, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I could live with Poti’s complete decline as an offensive threat if he could become a true, go to, match up, defensive stopper. Thats looks like a big IF at this point.
I agree with Direction87 and I believe that he has indeed become a go-to match up stopper. It’s how Booboo is using him and Poti is okay at it. It ain’t pretty but can live with it. I am inclined to also give him a good mark. Not that it counts in the rankings, but I also appreciated Poti’s candid comments about the VC ice sheet and how it was crapping up his groin. Not sure it did any good, but those comments (and Feds’ comments) got the issue out onto the table.
In what role would you like to see Poti in 2009-10? Reliable go-to stopper. And mentor to Carlson.
What will it take for him to earn a 10 rating next year? The above PLUS a dozen goals PLUS playing all games (an injury-free year) PLUS a Cup Parade. I really really need a Cup Parade.
BTW, someone please mark me down as a Schultz Fan. It’s a small club but (obviously) a discerning one. I am (almost) always interested in seeing what kind of wild wonderfulness Jeff “Legs Tangled Up Yet Again?!!” Schultz is going to bring to each of his shifts. Hell, it’s exciting.
I want to see what Schultz does under a different D coach.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I am (almost) always interested in seeing what kind of wild wonderfulness Jeff "Legs Tangled Up Yet Again?!!" Schultz is going to bring to each of his shifts. Hell, it’s exciting.
Snark aside, the DMG post on this, along with the related fanposts, are worth reading.
by Bald Pollack on Jun 15, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
What calming influence do you speak of? Is that a measurable?
Schultz has posted better numbers the past 2 years, yet if I had a nickel for every negative post I’ve read about Schultz I’d be in a higher tax bracket by two. Why does Poti get a free pass.
Mind boggling.
Poti makes as many gaffs as anyone on the blueline. He is not a shutdown defensemen, not even close.
(Housekeeping note: try to use “reply” as much as possible – it makes the conversation infinitely easier to follow)
Not all positives (or negatives) are measurable. But I think it’s fair to say that if everyone behind Poti had to absorb the minutes he played, the results would be worse than they were. Case in point, per Peerless, the Caps were 33-19 with Poti in the lineup and 17-13 without him.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
When Poti was out of the lineup, weren’t we without multiple players? As I remember we were missing a lot of players all at once.
The total effect of losing man games by significant minutes players was the cause, not Poti by himself.
Just curious: Over half of all your Rink comments are about Tom Poti. What about him has your dander up?!
Yes, his dislike seems to make him incompatible with the kinds of rational, often data-driven hockey discussions we have here on the Rink.
To be fair, the evolution of enlightened theory takes time for us all. Lord knows I’ve got a ways to go.
by Bald Pollack on Jun 15, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, we talk a lot about intangibles like leadership too, and I think everyone here has someone they really can’t stand or really, really likes. It’s human nature.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
JSchon hates Poti at the same level that the entire Wings Nation hates Marian Hossa at the moment.
Speaking of “intangibles” Poti is apparently a well liked if quiet guy in the locker room. Lead by example, not words, and all that jazz. And with Potsy being out for most of the season, I think it was important to have someone who had been through the league a few times (I know Erskine is older as well, but he’s never struck me as a veteran leader type).
Does anyone know if Poti had to have surgery on his foot? Tarik said it was a possibility, and then nothing else was ever said.
Yet data-driven is not always the prime indicator of a guy’s total value. JSchon had been a valuable voice amongst the schlock that typically visited Tarik’s blog. I have no doubt he’ll be compatible here.
you two gonna get a room?
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jun 15, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Are you kidding me dude? I use stats all the time. The biggest stat that annoys me about Poti is his salary and how it relates to his performance based on why we signed him. It just doesn’t add up.
Poti was signed to play a role that someone else stepped up and grabbed. With 20/20 hindsight, Poti at $3.5m/year for four years doesn’t look great, but at the time, it looked fine (similar to Nylander in that respect, actually).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I agree, but we live in the now and not in the then. I didn’t dislike Poti when he was Islander or Ranger or Oiler. He didn’t steal my girlfriend, spit in my grandma’s face or cut me off on 66. I dislike Poti for a few simple reasons.
1. Where is the offense and puck moving we were supposed to get?
2. Mr Brittle, and its not from hitting people.
3. Free pass for a 11yr vet who under performs when a 23 yr gets beaten down by fans while posting better/similar numbers.
1. Mike Green stole all that and then some. Not to mention stole about 1:45 of every power play, and when TPot does get PP time, it’s with the scrub squad.
2. Funny, if Green had shyed away from contact like TPot does, would we have been talking about his bum shoulder or disappearance in the playoffs? Green’s got one of the best hip-checks in the league, but the growing trend of hitting the guy before taking care of the puck has been a problem with 52 for a season and a half now. Poti’s injury problems the past 2 years have been all Groin related. He’s not the only player on the team to be concerned about it. I wonder if Alex would attribute his groin to VC ice…maybe they’d do something about it if he did.
3. You’ll find less schultz bashing here. Remember though, for most of the season Poti and Schultz were paired.
I have a question: If you say the same thing 23 times, does that make it more true (at least in your mind)? Or do you think we’re all so stupid here that we can’t understand something when you say it once?
by TylerG on Jun 15, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
If he’s a long time Capitals Insider member, probably the latter.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Jun 15, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
hey now, not everyone at CI thinks everyone else is stupid. (JSchon is faaaaaaaaar from my favorite person there, in part because of his pretty irrational and borderline obsessive Poti hate)
I think you’ll also find that most of us here don’t bother to read or contribute to the comments there anymore. At least, that seems the general feeling I get.
by DrinkingPartner on Jun 15, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah I pretty much gave up midway through this season, especially once Japers moved to SB nation and the discussion here grew tremendously.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Jun 15, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m in the same boat. I stopped posting on the CI beginning of this year. Too much crap on that board.
by vt caps fan on Jun 15, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
I read and post out of some (seriously misplaced, probably) loyalty for Tarik. He’s a friend of a family friend and he was a nice enough guy the few times I met him, so I’m just doing my part of bump up is page view counts!
i think he gets plenty of readership (I read him, too), but, as Sombrero just said, the discussion here is actually discussion, not a continuing flame war.
by DrinkingPartner on Jun 15, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
I’ll always read CI, because it’s probably the best way to get official and breaking news from/on the organization, but I honestly can’t remember the last time I read or posted to the comments.
by Scott in Shaw on Jun 15, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I have a question for you. Why did you ask me why I dislike Poti when I typed it here for everyone to see? Just lazy? I back my arguments with facts I take the time to research, do you? Or do you
He's been taking jabs at me all day. Agree or disagree with me, it doesn't matter with me. I never make it personal or at try not to unless provoke.
I sort of agree with you and think it’s a little unfair you got told to calm down while Tyler gets a ton of support on being slightly rude
However, I’d stop typing your entire posts in the subject line. I think it’s a pet peeve of almost everyone here.
Tyler’s track record in this community is more proven, so he (and anyone similarly situated) gets cut more slack.
But when anyone gets personal, they start walking an extremely thin line. My advice? Turn the other cheek. Be the bigger man. Whatever. Respect the community and you get the respect of the community.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
And whatever you do, don’t delete any FanPost explaining why Theodore should be the starting goalie.
by Bald Pollack on Jun 15, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Dude, my bad. I was at the pool and using my iphone to post. Did not mean to use the subject line. Stooopid technology and user.
I’m just going through this thread now, and this caught my eye:
I wonder if Alex would attribute his groin to VC ice…
I’m pretty sure he said that it happened in New York, but I won’t object to being told I’m wrong. Therefore, that would not be Verizon Center ice, and I recall reading on numerous occasions that MSG’s ice is way worse than at the phone booth.
If we want to compare Poti’s past numbers with his current, you have to remove his PP numbers from the past.
When you do that, you find out quickly that his 5v5 offensive production this year looks a hell of a lot like it did in previous years.
by FFSEnough on Jun 15, 2009 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Now that’s a good point. Mike Green pretty much takes over in that regard, since Boudreau likes to run four forwards and a D on his PP. And, really, I can’t argue with the effectiveness of it, but then, I try to be results-oriented.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Poti’s 5-on-5 Pts/60, over the last two seasons (don’t have the data going back further):
2007-08: 1.04
2008-09: 0.80
But to further the point you were making, here are his even strength points per game since the lockout:
2005-06: .12
2006-07: .15
2007-08: .30
2008-09: .21
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Way too tough on the man...
I always think of what the coach thinks and says about his players in evaluating them. Boudreau always gives Poti major props for his minute-eating veteran leadership.
You can downplay his playoff performance , e.g., the Game 6 heroics – but that wasn’t Jose Theodore he was playing against. It was King Henrik (I hate that nickname). Sometimes it aint how many you score it’s when you score them. Just ask Ovechkin and 3 minutes into OT of that game – he just plain whiffed on getting a shot off with the whole net yawning at him.
I really like Poti’s cool and calm. He’s not a number one and he aint a tough guy, but how many hits does Lidstrom average a game?
I do agree that his point production could be better, but with Mike Green on your PP, it easy to get pushed out of the picture.
To clarify, I’m thinking of Ovie’s non-shot in OT of game 3 of the Pens series that we could have had an insurmountable lead in and gone to the conf finals and my life wouldn’t suck now because Max F’ing Talbot was their best player and the Pens won the Cup.
But I’m not bitter – much.
If your life sucks because the Pens won the cup, seek help, man. :)
Think of it this way – the Caps gave the Pens all they could handle with injured stars, injured defensemen, an enforcer who was suspended rather ridiculously, lots of refereeing shenanigans, and Colin Campbell. Give them credit – the Pens took the inches they were handed and made miles out of them.
And Hershey and South Carolina both took home their respective Cups. And we’re in less cap trouble than the Pens are. What does this tell you? It tells me the future’s so bright I’d better go get a pair of shades. All we gotta do is bring up the Hershey guys and a D coach who can and will make them do the little things.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Door #1: Stanley Cup Championship, followed by a couple of tough years against the cap
Door #2: Early playoff exit, followed by ??? but with a great core and cap space
Monty, I will take Door#1, 100 out of 100 times.
Seriously though, I get what you’re saying and appreciate and agree with the optimism, but as a fan, I would gladly accept some lean years in exchange for one definite Stanley Cup banner and the memories it brings.
After all, don’t we now hold the title of “The Longest-suffering Major Sports Fan Base”? Or maybe its still Cleveland, after they blew their shot this year with LBJ & Co.
Cleveland still has the title, afaik. Remember, the Redskins actually managed to hold it together way back in 1991.
If Door #2 leads to 2 decades of Detroit-style dominance in hockey, but the price was no Cup this year, I’m cool with that. I want the Caps to be Detroit, not Pittsburgh.
And that’s where I’m coming from. Personally, I’d give up the potential that the Caps might become the Red Wings for one guaranteed Cup.
Since the cap era began, the Wings and Penguins success has been the same (1 Finals, 1 Cup each). There will be no more decade-long dominance in the cap era.
its too soon to draw any conclusions about decade long dominance in the salary cap era, given that its only been in effect for four seasons. But the Red Wings managed to smarty restructure for the cap world and haven’t lost a step. Every year, they are a legitimate Cup contender, and always finish at or near the top of the standings. They draft and develop better than anyone else (Leino? Helm? Abdelkator? Ericksson?). They have their young elite talents locked into long term, below-market, salary cap friendly contracts. The Red Wings are not suddenly going to fizzle out and failed to make the playoffs. They are, for a very good reason, the standard which every other organization is measured against.
If I were to be a betting person, I’d place my $100 on the Wings achieving more success in the first ten years of the salary cap than anyone else.
I think the Caps have a very real chance at grabbing some of that success in the first decade. They have been every bit as smart (though, no one drafts like Detroit seems to), but have just had a few backfires (Huet, Nyls, the 2005 Draft) that can be attributed to a few different circumstances. The Caps started the cap era horrible, but now that they’ve become a truly good team, I think they’ll surprise us. It’s coming sooner than it might feel, I think.
by DrinkingPartner on Jun 15, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
so do I, which is why, as much as I really dislike seeing the Penguins raise the Cup (actually, I’ve yet to see it. I’m avoiding it, rather irrationally. If my Red Wings-loving husband can watch it, why can’t I?), I know that the Caps are in a much better position to achieve long term success. And if waiting just a couple more years for the Cup to finally arrive is the price that must be paid to reach that Detroit-like level of dominance, well, quite frankly, I’m willing to pay it. I’ve waited this long to see the Caps raise a Cup, a few more years of waiting won’t kill me.
The backfires have been in the free agency acqusitions. They seemed a good idea at the time, but looking at the three FA’s signed a couple of years ago….
Much of the role Poti was to assume has been taken over by Mike Green
Nylander wasn’t a good fit for the new coach
Kozlov never reached his potential (frustrating yet another franchise)
In a way, with Green growing so quickly and the unexpected success of Boudreau, the Caps are a victim of their own success in creating what amounts to dead money out of free agents. It’s a reason I’m not a fan of the practice, except in very specific circumstances, and almost never for high-end (that is, “vastly overpriced”) FA’s.
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jun 15, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Of the backfires, I think Nylander is the only real shocking one. Nylander was good elsewhere, and even as a Cap pre-Boudreau. I think we were all caught off guard to find out how awful a fit he is in this system.
Poti, though, I don’t think was terribly shocking. He’s good, obviously, but has never been great. Not only that, but I remember the general sentiment after the ’04 draft being, “Holy crap, we just won the Draft with only 2 guys.” Green maybe rose a tad quicker than expected, but it was expected, I think.
And Kozlov is very consistent in his inconsistency. He’s never had a fantabulous year that would make us think that he should’ve been much better than he was. I think we got what we expected from him, it’s just too bad that he didn’t break free of those and give us all a fantastic year.
But I do consider the ‘05 draft a true backfire, thus far, at least (we’ll see how Finley does next year in Hershey). First, they were screwed out of a draft position, which still doesn’t make sense. And second, they went off-board and drafted a kid with known concussion problems at 15 when there were other, better-known prospects on the board (T.J. Oshie, anyone?). Just not a well-handled draft, certainly GMGM’s worst in the Cap era.
by DrinkingPartner on Jun 15, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
This goes back to what I’ve been saying over and over again. Buying free agents will not get us to the Cup. We have talent coming out our ears in the farms. What Hershey’s got and Pittsburgh’s got that the Caps don’t right now is killer instinct and a work ethic, the willingness to do what it takes – whatever it takes – to not just get ahead, but to crush their opponents into the floor, to not let up when they have a lead, to not take shifts off. That was easily the most maddening thing about the Caps this year.
We don’t need another star. We’ve got the talent. What we need is the guys who go nose-to-the-grindstone, every shift, every time. If you can buy that, great, but I don’t think you really need to. Hershey’s got that in spades.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
What Hershey’s got and Pittsburgh’s got that the Caps don’t right now is killer instinct and a work ethic…
What makes you think these Bears have something that the Laich/Steckel/Schultz/etc. Bears didn’t? Or is the current crop going to replace some of the Caps’ roster players who lack those traits?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
because its quite trendy right now to say “What Hershey’s got and Pittsburgh’s got that the Caps don’t right now is killer instinct and a work ethic…” I’ve seen it everywhere. I’m quite sick of it. Look, I like the Bears and all, but if they’re all so great (Alex G, I’m looking at you!) why are they in Hershey? Why weren’t they on the ice leading the Caps to the Holy and Revered Promised Land?
That’s a bit harsh – I think most people have realistic expectations regarding the non-prospects (Giroux, Aucoin, Sloan, etc.) and hopes for the prospects (Neuvy, Carlson, Alzner and Osala).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Not here.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Jun 15, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
because its quite trendy right now to say "What Hershey’s got and Pittsburgh’s got that the Caps don’t right now is killer instinct and a work ethic…" I’ve seen it everywhere. I’m quite sick of it. Look, I like the Bears and all, but if they’re all so great (Alex G, I’m looking at you!) why are they in Hershey?
I don’t think too many people are saying “the guys on the Bears roster are better than the guys on the Capitals roster! Overhaul, overhaul!”; rather they’re just saying that kind of work ethic the Bears seem to have would be something the Capitals could stand to adopt.
I apologize, I wasn’t clear. Not so much here, where the vast majority is measured, thoughtful discussion, but elsewhere, where the majority of comments are reactionary and impulsive (before dissolving into the daily Ovechkin vs. Crosby vs. red Wings vs. Bettman vs. Captain America vs. yo momma battles). Although I think its a sign that I need professional help because I can’t stop reading those comments. Maybe its the car wreck nature of them.
They did have it- and that’s why Laich/Steckel/Bradley was our best line in the playoffs. I think of it as being … diluted. It takes a whole team full of people willing to do that, not just a few.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
by gotsparkly on Jun 15, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
90 percent of life is timing. John Druce scores 14 goals in first three rounds of a playoff series, and he’s a minor legend to Caps fans. Max F’ing Talbot scores seven goals in the last three rounds, and he will be forever remembered.
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jun 15, 2009 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I was bowling at the end of the game on friday night, and I noticed that my bowling score rose dramatically once I started throwing harder and drinking more beer. But I still remember. :-(
by DrinkingPartner on Jun 15, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree, while he may not be the flashiest or most skilled guy out there, I’ve always really liked him for that intangible “cool and calm” you speak of. He’s solid, and (usually) doesn’t get stupid penalties they way some other of our d-men do.
by SeattleCapsFan on Jun 15, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
bq.because its quite trendy right now to say "What Hershey’s got and Pittsburgh’s got that the Caps don’t right now is killer instinct and a work ethic…" I’ve seen it everywhere. I’m quite sick of it. Look, I like the Bears and all, but if they’re all so great (Alex G, I’m looking at you!) why are they in Hershey? Why weren’t they on the ice leading the Caps to the Holy and Revered Promised Land?
It’s not a matter of they’re being so great that they should be promoted to fill a role, the matter is one in how the Caps and Bears are constructed. Case in point — the Caps suffer on their top two lines from the lack of a productive forward to can create his own space, play with a snarl, and score some, too. Well, the Bears have that — Graham Mink, who plays on their top line. Mink could never recreate that role in the NHL; he simply doesn’t have the skill for it at this level. But in the AHL, he’s the equivalent of a Brendan Shanahan. The Caps need that kind of player — not necessarily that player — on their roster.
If you've read this far...seek help.
now, if I can only get this formatting thing down without so many typos.
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jun 15, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe once Osala’s got some more experience, he’ll be able to fill that role. Or Fehr, even, when healthy and after a solid 2 months of weight rooms and protein shakes.
by DrinkingPartner on Jun 15, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I gave him the same, although, I probably should have rated him higher with his playoff performance. He had a good playoffs, despite his injury. And I’ve played with a broken foot, I know what that’s like.
by DrinkingPartner on Jun 15, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
A 6...maybe a 6.5
I expected a solid, but unspectacular season from Poti, and that’s exactly what we got. He was effective in keeping pucks out of the net, staying out of the box, eating minutes.
The reason for a 6, well, once the playoffs started he stepped it up in a big way and became a defensive leader. Despite the broken foot, he was able to double his offensive production (from .25 PPG to .5 PPG). Considering there are no games with Atlanta, Tampa etc. during the playoffs, that’s a big step up.
To get to a 10… maybe stay healthy and play 70+ games, keep eating 22-25 minutes a game, and keep the points production at the playoff level (meaning about 40 points, not 13).
Let's go Caps!
4, borderline 5
The D corps was a LOT better with Poti eating minutes (statistically justified by Peerless and JP) and (sadly) he was the closest thing we had to a shutdown defender. However, despite opportunities he did not produce offensively. For a 10 he would need >= 20 +/- and >=30 points.
Where, roughly, would Poti fall on a list of the NHL’s best defensive defensemen?
I gave him a 5, but was close to giving him a 6. The injury problems and the lack of offense dropped him down a point. I don’t really care much about the offensive output, as Green has taken over that role and the team needs solid D from its blueline more than it needs scoring, but more than 13 points would be nice.
Unlike the previous season, I expected solid defense with a minor offensive role, and that’s pretty much what he provided. Even though it didn’t translate into points, his puck moving was very important to the Caps. Poti and Green were the only defensemen who could consistently move the puck out of trouble in the defensive zone without just chipping it off the boards and actually start a breakout.
I wasn’t happy when Poti was signed, but I think he definitely improves the team and does not break the bank as a very solid second pairing defenseman. I MUCH prefer this version of Poti to the more offensively driven player that was seen with Edmonton and the Rangers, so I definitely don’t mind him finishing out his contract in DC. To get a 10 next year he’d have to continue to improve his solid play in his own zone, stay healthy, and get his offense back up closer to the 30 pt range.
(Side note – I’d really like to see both ‘07 and ’08 stats on these so I can better gauge my expectations coming into the season – maybe just me and it’s easy enough to click through)
I think you’re absolutely right in that Poti’s best (and ever average) offensive days are behind him. Fortunately he seems to be acquitting himself well as a defensive player, and it’s really nice that he’s been able to stay out of the box. I’d really like to see more assists, which would be indicative of moving the puck up the ice better, so I gave him a 6.
I’d like to see him back at ~10G, 30A and the rest the same as this year (well, a full season) to get a 10 next year, but I’m not sure that’s possible anymore.
To get a 5, he’d need to duplicate this year, maybe pumping up the assists to 20+ (so, ~5/20/25 over a full term). If he pulls a 4/14/18 over 80 next year, I’ll definitely be disappointed.
-d
5, and that is way lower than what he should earn
Tom Poti was, years ago, a #4 defenseman. Now, he’s a 5 or 6. He isn’t physical, makes mistakes, and I never believed he was going to be anymore than what he once was. He’s playing first pair minutes and he is not that guy, never was. His numbers show that he is out of his depth. Against first line players, he can’t put up numbers. Against the 3rd and 4th lines, he runs even. Its not Poti’s fault; his age and experience warranted 3.5 in the market. The fault lies with fielding a blueline where Poti is skating the most minutes against the most difficult opponents.
Gave Tom a 7. Without him, this team had a huge vacuum at Defensive D-man. They don’t need more offense from the blue line — Green alone is better than most teams. What they needed was someone to eat a whole lot of minutes against top competition.
Ask anyone who watched Poti’s early career and see if they thought he could be a defensive stalwart. But there he was thrown into that role by Boudreau, and he did much better than I expected. I think this team as currently constructed is much better with Poti in the lineup than without him there.
There may be room for debate as to whether the team could use an even better defensive stopper in his place, but the bottom line is that this year Poti is what the team had and he outperformed my expectations in that role.
I look forward to the day that Poti’s minutes per game drop because someone (maybe Alzner, maybe Carlson, maybe a free agent or trade) has assumed that role. But part of leadership is doing what the team needs even if it takes you out of your comfort zone. Poti’s done that, and done it better than I think we could have reasonably expected of him.



































