Neuvy's Calder Cup: Springboard Or Plateau?
by Stephen Pepper on Jun 13, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
35 comments
As the memory of Simeon Varlamov's post-season heroics becomes softer (or perhaps further galvanized in the hearts and minds of Caps Country as legend), Michal Neuvirth has taken center stage, filling the void of Caps playoff hockey to provide a compelling 'tender tale. Neuvy anchored the Hershey Bears toward the franchise earning an unprecedented tenth Calder Cup last night, and in surprisingly dominant fashion: winning the Jack A. Butterfield Trophy as the most valuable player of the 2009 Calder Cup Playoffs, and finishing the post-season with a 16-6 record, 1.92 GAA and .932 SV%, and four shutouts. Wow.
Last Saturday night, in Game 3, these eyes absorbed his mastery in earning but one of his four shutouts during the American league playoffs. Particularly, he exhibited efficient and precise lateral movement, persistently square to the shooter, flashing leather when called upon to do so. Against premier AHL scoring talent.
So, while Neuvy's body of post-season work is most impressive, what does it tell us about his abilities to perform at a consistently high level in the NHL show? Is it a springboard to NHL greatness, or an early career plateau of pro playoff success?
To help answer that question during the long, hockey-less summer, let's put the young netminder's achievement in some historical pespective. Below are the NHL career statistics, both regular season and post-season, of the "number one" goaltenders of Calder Cup winning teams over the last 15 seasons. (Number one meaning that goalie who saw a majority of regular season and post-season action for his respective AHL club.)
All but three were age 25 or younger at the time of each goalie's respective Cup victory (or first victory, in the case of Jean-François Labbé), and thus arguably could have been considered NHL prospects. The remaining three, Frederic Cassivi (2005-06 Hershey Bears), Wade Flaherty (2003-04 Milwaukee Admirals), and Martin Brochu (2000-01 Saint John Flames), should more properly be considered true veterans of the A.
Table of statistics after the jump.
* Schwab and Dunham essentially split both regular season and playoff duties for the 1994-95 River Rats.
We see in this list one legitimate #1 NHL netminder (Kolzig's career numbers all wrapped up like that is something, isn't it?) and two that are "too early to tell" (i.e., the two most recent Calder Cup winners). And one backup that can still once-in-a-while, say, stop all 21 shots in a period from one of the most offensively gifted teams in the league. Honorable mention might also be given to Brian Boucher's solid playoff run with the Flyers in 1999-00.
And not only are the above NHL numbers in most cases mediocre, by that level's standards, several of these goalies soon left to play overseas: Johan Holmqvist (2008, Frölunda HC), Pasi Nurminen (2005, Pelicans [Finland]), Jean-François Labbé (2003, Togliatti), and John Grahame (2008, Omsk). So perhaps ultimate victory in the A isn't a very useful predictor of NHL success after all.
Further, here are the last ten AHL goaltender of the year winners:
Any of those additional names get your heart rate up? Aside from some notable playoff success authored by Dwayne Roloson, we didn't think so. And the jury has a long way yet to deliberate on Cory Schneider.
So, the bottom line is that Neuvirth's accomplishments to date, at 21 years of age, are wonderful, and at least validate his draft position. But as much as he's played the magician for the Hershey faithful, there's an awfully big difference between "NHL real" and "AHL show."
Nevertheless, we can't wait to see the goaltending battle commence, come September.
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I think your answer there is “too early to tell”, not “plateau” like your stats seem to suggest. I thought he was solid in his first start in Washington, and his second he didn’t have time to mentally prepare so he froze. Enh, that’s a seasoning issue.
I too look forward to the goaltending battle come September. Hell, I look forward to September now, because I’m going to get real tired of hearing about Cindy Criesby’s Cup real fast.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Eh, you’ll never hear the end of that so get used to it.
At some point in the not-so-distant future, the Caps could have a hell of decision to make about goalie. You couldn’t have two more different players. Varlamov is certainly exciting to watch, but is that really what you need from your goaltender? Neuvirth has impressed me with how positionally sound he is; he gives the appearance of never needing/having to panic. Of course, having watched the last few games, I wonder how much of that is quality of the opposition shooting. Time will tell.
I think Neuvy has a decent future ahead. He’s shown maturity and skill in his AHL tour, and has impressed us at the NHL level, too. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some serious success from him in the big league next year.
I still think he looks like an elf.
Rockin' the Red in Section 412
You’re right, he does look a bit like a Tolkien character. I never thought about that before!
by Jake Shapiro on Jun 13, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Whoops. Thanks. It was late last night.
by Stephen Pepper on Jun 13, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
No worries. Can’t fault your analysis, but I’m an editor by profession so I just couldn’t help it.
by CapitalCentre on Jun 13, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I think between the two of them we have a very bright future in the goal-tending department. And their differences could even be an advantage, give the coaching staff some flexibility depending on the types of offense they’re going up against.
It will probably take a few years before either of them are top form, but they’re both a joy to watch.
This is my fondest hope, actually — bring them both up, and match their different styles to the opponents. I fear this is a bit of a revolutionary idea and isn’t what’s going to happen. Also, it won’t be possible this coming season, and it seems a little cruel to make either (or both) of them wait out another year in the A.
by CapitalCentre on Jun 13, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions
This is a brilliant idea. I’ve been thinking that, roughly, a 50-30 game or 40-40 game split between two goalies is my ideal vision. I don’t think goaltending should be a one-man-show anymore since the infusion of talent and offense in the league after the lockout. I don’t think anyone—of any team—can argue that it would be nice to have a double threat in net, especially for fatigue factors because IMO Varly was getting worn out toward the end of the Pitt series.
But then again the two Stanley Cup contenders this year relied on the same goalies throughout the playoffs.
64,000 question
Which of these three studs (incl. Holtby) gets packaged up this off season for the 2nd line Center top line RW top pair Dman we so clearly need?
from the house that Red Jesus built
None of them? Goalie prospects have little to no value, and this team has had enough goalies fizzle on them that they’re not going to make a commitment to any of them by trading the other(s) before they have to.
You don’t think other teams might bite on Neuvy after his performance? You might be right, but I could see him getting traded. Holtby doesn’t have any trade value but if the Caps are high on him, that might make them less nervous about dealing Neuvy.
I’m sure GMGM likes having all 3 but there is a very real logjam problem given that a combo of Varly/Neuvy with the Caps doesn’t really work, but neither of them are really appropriate to spend another full season in the AHL. You could argue that Neuvy is but he is young and has already proven he can win at that level. They both need NHL starts at this point, and unless you go with an ultra-unconventional tandem of Varly/Neuvy, they can’t get em.
The more I think about it, the more I think that Neuvy will be traded if the Caps find an interested buyer with something they want.
Two reasons. One is that, at least per conventional wisdom, they both simply need more PT than that situation would afford to continue to develop. Two is that it’s shaky for injury and psychological reasons to go with two young players at such a critical and pressure-packed position. I think having a veteran there helps both on the ice and to help the young guys develop.
But that said, I admit that it’s an intriguing, if not dangerous, idea.
What about...
… the Flyers? They had been tinkering with the goalie tandem for years and it never seemed to work for them. Reminds me of the old saying “If you think you have 2 starting quarterbacks/goalies, you really don’t even have 1”. Philly churned through several tandems over the last 10 years or so and haven’t been able to get to the Finals with that set-up (some might argue there are other reasons for that lack of success).
As tempting as a Neuvy/Varly tandem might be, recent history might suggest that it puts the rest of the team at a disadvantage not having one dependable guy back there to bail you out on odd-man breaks?
Just sayin’…
by war_capitals on Jun 15, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I’ll say it again: goalie prospects have little to no value. Neuvirth’s performance in the playoffs says next to nothing about his nhl future (at least to a team that hasn’t been developing him), just look at what guys like Cassivi have done before.
I’m sure there would be teams that would love to have Neuvirth in a trade, but it’s not going to be worth it from our perspective. He’s not going to be the centerpiece for a deal that gets us a huge return in terms of that great Dman or RW.
Also, In no way whatsoever does he “need” NHL starts at this point. He’s 21. Most goalies are lucky to be NHL regulars by the time they’re 24+. He’s proven he can get hot at the right time, but I’m sure the team would love to see him do it again (and perhaps another time still). You don’t trade a goalie just because he’s had one good/great year and you don’t have an NHL spot for him, especially when he’s still under contract for two years.
Neuvirth’s performance in the playoffs says next to nothing about his nhl future (at least to a team that hasn’t been developing him), just look at what guys like Cassivi have done before.
To some degree, I’d suggest the same could be said for Varlamov, simply because how little shooters saw him in the regular season.
by Bald Pollack on Jun 13, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok, all very good points. The trade value point especially – the potential for him to be a stud at the NHL level is enough to make anything but a strong offer pointless, and the risk is probably too high for another team to make such an offer. Still, I think he may be included in a package deal at some point, just because in a larger trade the risk/reward can get rebalanced a bit in a way that might make it more worth the teams’ while, to get a bigger deal done.
I can see him being traded, but not this offseason. His value to us is too high at the moment until Varlamov is more settled in, if only as an insurance policy. For any other team he’s just a good/very good goalie prospect that they hope can develop. For us he’s a bit of a lifeline if Varly falters.
Maybe in a year or two the values will swing the other way. Another great year in the AHL (+ good NHL callup time here and there) coupled with a steady NHL season from Varly would go a long way towards simultaneously raising Neuvirth’s value and lessening his importance to the organization overall. That is when you trade if you want to.
Don't trade either of our young goalies for another season or two
Truly, we may have a gold mine with two super young goalies, or one may do well in the NHL and the other might be a career AHL type goalie. It’s way too early to tell; there is lots more development. I’d hold my cards now, calculating that we have two Aces and might deal one in a year.
Yeah, Trading goalies is always a mixed bag. Bryzgalov was waived, and he had solid NHL stats but Burke couldn’t work out a deal.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Jun 14, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I’ll say it again, I’m not convinced that we OMGNEED to go out and buy some high-priced free agent for any of those roles. The talent is already there. That’s not the question. The question is one of will to compete and consistent work ethic, showing up every day and every shift and doing the little things well. Hershey’s got all that. They know all that, and they can teach the big boys that. A big-name signing will be more of the same without the ability to teach that work ethic.
So we need a veteran. We don’t need one for the regular season – I think most of our boys there can handle that much. Get one at the trade deadline, they come cheaper that way. I think Hershey can bring to the table everything that is required, save only SC playoff experience, and that little bit can be had in March.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Any stats on how long these guys were AHL goalies before they tried the NHL? I feel like if you play in the AHL too long, you can’t flip the switch to NHL since you’re too used to the AHL guys.
At least we know skaters are helped by winning a Calder Cup. Getzlaf, Perry, Green, etc.
I’m not sure that applies extensively to Neuvirth. I have to think that part of the reason for his success is that he had coaching from Dave Prior and had only appeared in a few AHL games, if any at all, before he made his NHL debut. I can’t recall for sure, but it seems to me that he got his live exposure to the NHL first. There was a comment a while back that Prior fixed some things in his game, and it seems to me that he’s taken his NHL coaching and experience back to the AHL with him.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
Too soon to tell
I think until you get a chance to see Neuvirth compete at the NHL level for more than a handful of games, the jury is still out. Statistically, Patrick Roy was an awful Junior goalie, but carried the Sherbrooke Canadiens to an AHL championship in his first try, and moved on pretty quickly from there. I think Neuvirth is probably about a year behind in his development, compared to Varlamov. We won’t know if either goalie is the second coming of Patrick Roy, J. F. Labbe or someone in-between for a couple of years yet.
We won’t know if either goalie is the second coming of Patrick Roy, J. F. Labbe or someone in-between for a couple of years yet.
Are you implying that someone compared these two to Roy or Labbe?
Quite frankly, I think you can compare him to any goalie at this point.
by red army line on Jun 14, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington
|
82 | 54 | 15 | 13 | 121 |
|
Atlanta
|
82 | 35 | 34 | 13 | 83 |
|
Carolina
|
82 | 35 | 37 | 10 | 80 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
82 | 34 | 36 | 12 | 80 |
|
Florida
|
82 | 32 | 37 | 13 | 77 |
(updated 4.12.2010 at 9:21 AM EDT)
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