Uneven at Even Strength
by J.P. on May 6, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
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Through the first two games of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series with the Penguins, the Capitals have outscored their opponent 5-3 at even strength and have won a pair of one-goal games. Of the even strength goals scored in the two games, Alexander Ovechkin, David Steckel and Sidney Crosby each have two, with Tomas Fleischmann and Mark Eaton scoring the others. No Cap has worse than a minus-one rating (and seven are at plus-two), and only Crosby is better than plus-one on the other side (Evgeni Malkin is a minus-three).
Why do these numbers matter? Because they're deceiving.
The Pens have outshot the Caps 54-47 at five aside and have dominated the even-strength play for stretches at a time. If not for Simeon Varlamov's .944 even strength save percentage (and Marc-Andre Fleury's .894), this series could look very different.
That's a huge "if," of course, and not all shots are created equal, but to get a better feel for just how much better the Pens have been than the Caps overall at even strength, Pittsburgh skaters are averaging a +3.6 Corsi Rating for the series (making the average Cap -3.6 if you count John Erskine and Tyler Sloan as one). Put another way, the average Pen has directed seven more shots towards the net at even strength than his Cap counterpart through two games.
On an individual level, Alex Ovechkin (as you might expect) is leading the Caps at plus-12, twice Tom Poti's total, three times Sergei Fedorov's and 12 times Viktor Kozlov's. Those four - the top line and Poti - are the only Caps on the positive side of the ledger through two games. The second line is a combined minus-26, and Shaone Morrisonn is last on the team at minus-14 (huge minutes against Sidney Crosby will do that to you). Considering that most of these guys had outstanding Corsi Ratings during the regular season, it's fair to expect more from them now.
For Pittsburgh, the story is of course rosier, and they have four blueliners alone (and eight skaters) who are at or above Poti's plus-six, led by Brooks Orpik's plus-15 (which leads all Pens - Crosby is plus-10, as is Tyler Kennedy, and Ruslan Fedotenko is tops among Pitt forwards at plus-14). Even the much-maligned Malkin comes in at a cool plus-three. All this from a Pens team that wasn't very good at all in terms of Corsi Rating during the regular season. Granted, much of that was before their coaching change, but you'd think that even strength should be an area in which the Caps would have the upper hand, but in terms of puck possession and territorial advantage, that hasn't been the case yet.
Given that the series now shifts to Pittsburgh, where Dan Bylsma will get to match his lines however he so desires, this aspect of the game becomes even more significant. If Bylsma wants to get Malkin away from Poti and Milan Jurcina, he'll have every chance to. If he doesn't like the Crosby line having to face the Steckel line, he can throw 'em out against Fedorov or Nicklas Backstrom. Point being, the Pens have had the better of the even strength play so far (everywhere other than where it counts, that is), and now they have the literal home ice advantage of having the last line change.
To be sure, the Caps have been quite good five-on-five this spring, and have the results to show for it so far in this series. But they need to get better in this area or those results may start to reflect what's happening on the ice a little more accurately.
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These corsi stats verify what my eyes have been telling me for two games: that second line of Semin, Backstrom and Flash has scared the crap out of me nearly every shift.
The keyboard is mightier.
I would put Clark on Semin’s other side, honestly. That line becomes a lot more dangerous that way, i think. But it’s a huge downgrade for the 4th line, with Flash on it.
by DrinkingPartner on May 6, 2009 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Downgrade the 4th line? Really? It already has Fehr (fair or not) only getting a couple minutes a game. The 2nd line generally gets 20 minutes a game. Making a better 2nd line, if Clark can handle the minutes, is a major plus for very little downside.
by HateOffSeason on May 6, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Fehr gets dirtier than Flash, though.
Just imagine if Flash would just will himself to get tougher. He’d be a great 2nd liner.
by DrinkingPartner on May 6, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Not my point, I actually like Fehr. My point was that if Clark is better than Flash, move him to where he gets more minutes. Even if the move weakens the 4th line, it doesn’t see much ice anyway, so really doesn’t hurt that much.
by HateOffSeason on May 6, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I dunno. With Fehr hurt, and Nyles coming in, maybe (?), I’d say moving Flash to that line spells certain disaster whenever they’re on the ice. That’s not a cohesive potential line.
by DrinkingPartner on May 6, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
True, was hoping the Fehr injury was minor and that he would play. Nylander just scares me…still good, just doesn’t fit in the style of any of our lines.
Maybe we could make a 4th line of Flash (no grit in the corners) / Nylander (circles and feeds Flash) / Green (looks hurt so may only be twice as fast as Nylander)
I kid, I kid…
by HateOffSeason on May 6, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Great Analysis as always ...
Simply said, our first line and goaltending is carrying us despite generally not controlling the pace of play and allowing more shots. Of course the one thing Corsi can’t measure is the art of putting the biscuit in the basket
No, but I’m still seeing too many parallels to the Rangers series for my liking, and this time, we’re on the other side. I’m thinking of tonight as a must-win for us – we don’t want to give the Pens any ideas about a comeback or anything like that.
I’ll grant that we’ve done pretty well in Mellon Arena this year, but that was the regular season and this is the playoffs. The road has been pretty good to us in the second half of the year, all things considered – maybe having to simplify their game and be that much sharper will help.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I don’t mean to pick on this comment specifically, this is more of a general comment because I hear this all the time in all kinds of media. I think “must-win” has become one of the most misused terms in sports.
I’m pretty sure the Caps won’t have any must-win games in this series until next Monday at the earliest.
I think I’m going to respectfully disagree. We don’t want this series to stretch out and we don’t want to let the Pens back into it. We’ve been down that road, on the other side of it, and the Rags are … um, on the golf course this week. Let’s not go there. :)
I understand what you mean about the term, but I do think this game is important for momentum reasons.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I think the game’s import has nothing to do with momentum. It has to do with 3-0 vs. 2-1. That’s not momentum. That’s stuff that actually matters on the tally sheet.
We have to remember that this is still the Pens team we dominated in the regular season. We’ve eeked out two one-goal wins (last game should have been a 2 goal win), which is, I think, about what we all expected (both sides will score goals, and hopefully the Caps will score more of them). I don’t believe that matching lines or home ice advantage will mean anything in this series. Varlamov has been awesome, both at home and on the road, in NYC and MTL, no less. Pittsburgh’s crowd isn’t going to bother him unless they throw shit at him.
I do think the Caps need to come out firing, and get a quick goal to quiet the crowd. Outside of that, i don’t think the Caps have anything new and different especially to worry about. It’s still the same team, after all.
by DrinkingPartner on May 6, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Going into this series, I, like most, figured this series was going 6 or 7 games. While I’m happy to be up 2-0, nothing I’ve seen has changed my mind. Pittsburgh is a high quality team that could have easily won both games. So are the Caps. There won’t be a sweep and I fully expect the Penguins to win at least one and maybe both games in Pittsburgh. The good news is that despite being up 2-0, I don’t think we’ve seen anything near the Caps best. If I were Boudreau, I’d have the team watch last night’s Vancouver-Chicago game. That should be the template on how to play a road game.
I agree. This thing is probably going 7 games, but that said I’ll be ecstatic if the Caps can steal one of the next two games. The Caps have won two one-goal games where they got outplayed for the most part. Goaltending has been the difference so far. The good news is that I think we’re going to see the hungry road Caps tonight.
So, is it that we think highly of the Pens? Or that we think poorly of the Caps? I think the Caps take it in less than that.
by DrinkingPartner on May 6, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I think highly of both teams, but I am wary of being overconfident in Varly’s high-wire act against a team with Pitt’s firepower. I think the Caps are going to play better than they have going forward, but I’m not sure it guarantees wins.
Perhaps I’m being pessimistic here (I’m still taking the Caps to win), but my gut says 7, just like it did before the last series. After all, it’s all these Caps have ever done!
And yeah, I’ve seen the Caps go up 2-0 on Pitt before. This series is young. The fat lady can’t even start warming up until it is 3-1 or better.
For myself, I think highly of the Pens, and I think the the Caps have been very fortunate to avoid a split at home. In both games they gave up the first goal, gave up way too many penalties, and were out-shot, out-chanced, and out puck-possessioned. That’s not your typical formula for taking a 2-0 series lead.
They did so because Varly was really good, they got some luck (“The Save”, Gonch’s puck-over-glass to start what would become a 5-3, to name a couple) and because AO had a superstar moment coming down the stretch of Game 2.
I can easily see the fortunes reversing themselves and the Pens winning the next two.
I think people are seeing the 2-0 lead as a curse instead of a blessing. These Caps have never had a 2-0 lead to build off of before, and I don’t think they’re apt to make the same mistakes they have in the past. Pittsburgh is under a ton of pressure, and the Caps just have to keep calm.
Then again, the Caps play very well under pressure. I suppose it goes either way.
I personally think the 2-0 is the best thing that could have happened to them. Far be it from me to stop believing that this team can take on any team in the league, and finish the Pens in their own barn. I think they’ll be just fine.
by DrinkingPartner on May 6, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I will take 2-0 over 1-1 or 0-2 every time. I believe in the Caps. I just think that the bounces are going to even out a little and that this series will be the battle I (and I think most of us) was expecting.
If the Caps can just put in the same kind of work that they did for 3 games at MSG, they are going to do just fine. If they relax for a second, this thing could come back tied to VC.
It’s possible that because the Steckel line will (likely) be matched up against the Crosby line less than it was in WSH that they’ll see a Corsi bump. (And it matters not against whom AO plays, of course.) Gabby is not a Carlyle-style line-matcher-at-all-costs, so PIT will probably be picking matchups at near-will.
But the big stat in that post is MAF: .894 at 5-on-5. Wow. If the Caps can cycle some pucks down low against PIT, there’s reason to hope for a cheap, garbagey goal or two.
Also just imagine some of the posts we’ve hit actually going in. This series has been closer than J.P. has been insinuating, I think, in terms of 5-on-5 play.
by DrinkingPartner on May 6, 2009 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Completely anecdotal evidence. Ever since game 5 (of the Rangers series) the caps have taken much more quality shots, and buried the scoring chances presented to them. They have only been over 30 shots once in the 5 game win streak, in the previous 4 they had to average close to 40 shots.
I love it when JP/DMG/etc. brings data, conclusive data, and someone pipes up: Whatevs. “Quality shots!!” Which complete misses the broader points regarding puck possession, pressure in the offensive zone that leads to penalties, etc.
The problem with that is that the Pens have been doing it better than we have (yeah, I admit it), but the results of which, whether because of Holy Varlamov or Lady Luck or what have you, have not been good for Pittsburgh. What we’re doing is working. I agree that I want to see a dominating performance, but I’ll simply take a winning one, too.
Regardless of how many heart attacks I may suffer during the course of a game :-).
by DrinkingPartner on May 6, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Corsi ratings...
are not much better of an evaluator than +/-…
Game Over T-shirts: http://www.cafepress.com/beltwaysports
by CStoneNo37 on May 6, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I do think quality shots are important. The Rangers’ Corsis all sucked in games 1 and 2, but they were effective at pushing the Caps’ shots out to the perimeter and they won those games. It’s something we’ve seen the Caps do to the Pens in this series.
There are a bunch of lessons there. Corsi is important, but it’s not the be-all-end-all. Shot quality matters too, but it’s tougher to measure with today’s easy-to-find-stats, so watching the games still matters. The “pushing the shots to the perimeter” thing is not something to hang your hat on for a whole series — the Caps adjusted and won their series with the Rangers, and so can the Pens. And finally, and most importantly, this is way more fun than work.
by Gould Old Days on May 6, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Its a question of whether the data points are conclusive. The first four games the caps took 179 shots which got home 8 times. Last 5, 126 shots and 18.
Not bashing Corsi as a metric, in a small sample size (two games) it can be deceiving too. Puck control is important but also doesn’t directly lead to quality scoring opportunities, especially if one of your top two scorers looks like a deer in headlights. Point taken if the series goes longer the final score is likely to even up with what Corsi tells us. Constantly facing 35+ Shots, and being limited to high 20’s is a recipe for trouble.
Glad to see some data backing up my general impression that the Pens really have been outplaying the Capitals on balance. They’ve had long, long stretches where they’ve pinned the Caps in their zone at 5-on-5.
The fact that the Caps are ahead 2-0 comes down to a combination of good goaltending, luck and a couple of defensive breakdowns (both Steckel goals came from him being all by himself in front ot the net, for instance).
Going forward, the Caps need to be better a couple of things:
1. Exiting the zone. This is a big one. They simply cannot allow a single forechecker to take the puck away from two defenders and start the cycle. It’s happened way, way to often.
2. Second line production. Flash, Backstrom and Semin have to bring some puck possession presence to the table. It doesn’t help that Flash has devolved into a near-guaranteed loss of possession, and Semin is not much better.
On the plus side, Fleury is capable of producing a clunker at any point, so if he coughs up a couple of bad goals in the next two games, we’re really looking good.
Finally, I don’t think tonight is a must-win, but it would be extremely helpful if they could get a split in the Igloo.
I have no evidence, and rarely do, to back up my statement, but I think Semin wakes up and has a good game tonight. Hat tricks abound!
by DrinkingPartner on May 6, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions
He’s got the talent to asplode at any time. He’s had a couple of real quality chances, which probably continues, given his talent level and the fact that the Pens D will give up some chances. If he can just get one through, it might just open the floodgates for him.
More than that, as Puck Daddy put it, (paraphrased) “the Pens simply need to write this on their Defensive coverage board: 8.” And it’s probably true. Alex hadn’t had a breakout game, but now that it’s happened, he’s likely to continue, so they’re probably going to quadruple team him, and leave Sasha practically wide-open.
by DrinkingPartner on May 6, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree that the Caps breakouts have oft been clunky. Especially late in games. During the regular season the Caps were an up-and-out-and-transition team. When they have to manufacture breakouts from behind the net, they’ve struggled a bit.
Semin is key in PIT. The Pens will play their best D and the Staal line against Ovie (presumably). That means that the Semin line will be out against non-stopper groups.
I think one reason for the Caps to feel confident is that the ice will be better at Mellon arena. ALthough Pittsburgh is also a high tempo team, I think the better ice plays more to the Caps strengths than the Penguins. I’m also remembering a lot of pucks that hopped off of Ovies stick in Game 2 just as he was shooting. Hopefully he and Semin will be even more lethal tonight.
..and if that’s the case, moving backstrom to the second line might finally pay off.
by Natty Bumppo on May 6, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Rags-Pens transition
Having never played the game myself, I was wondering about a few changes triggered by the next opponent…
1) Did we seem to take fewer shots but from better positions on the ice as the Rangers series went on? I say “yes” which is probably backed up by the stats
2) As we moved to the Pens and saw a goalie with a lower save % thru 2 games, does that tempt the Caps into taking more perimeter shots? For a while we were labeled “too cute”, yet that seemed to be how we solved Lundqvist? If a goalie isn’t on top of his game, don’t we want to get volumes of runner on him to test his concentration? Or do we stick with what worked against the Rags and abandon the “pepper him” mentality?
Thanks for any thoughts you might have on this strategic approach to this series!
Even though our best player has a any shot is a good shot mentality, that doesn’t really work for most players. Quality shots are very important.
When the Caps are too “cute”, it’s because they are passing the puck too much on the perimeter, never mucking up the crease, and trying for highlight reel wrist shots. In those situations, the goalie has a clear view of the shots and has an easier time stopping them, plus has more time to think/react.
Passing does not equal “cute” when you are driving the net, creating traffic, and making passes that put the goalie out of position. When we stopped taking tons of outside shots on Lundqvist and instead drove the net, our shot total went down, scoring went up.
Let Ovechkin shoot from where ever he wants, although I think he should drive the net more often too. Everyone else? Go to the net, cause traffic, short passes accross the crease that the defense and goalie don’t have time to react to. This will also create those impossible to stop deflections, something we haven’t really seen the Caps generate in the post season.
by HateOffSeason on May 6, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I think we’re going to see very fluid lines tonight, with the exception of the lunchbucketeers. I wouldn’t be surprised if the ranking of even strength TOI for lines looks like this:
1) Ovechkin Backstrom Kozlov
2) Laich Steckel Bradley
3) Fleischmann Fedorov Semin
4) Ovechkin Nylander Clark
5) Fleischmann Nylander Semin
6) Ovechkin Backstrom Semin
7) Gordon Fedorov Semin
8) Ovechkin Backstrom Clark
9) Fleischmann Fedorov Gordon
Unless Bruce has changed up the lines in practice, don’t you mean Ovechkin-Fedorov-Kozlov and Flash-Backstrom-Semin?
Is Nylander even confirmed in the lineup tonight?
by DrinkingPartner on May 6, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
To what end? You can’t really skate 7 defensemen, so you’ll be putting a defenseman on the wing. Bruce has shown since he arrived in DC that he dislikes playing people “out of their role.” If we lose a scorer, they call up a scorer from Hershey and insert him into the vacant space, likewise if it’s a grinder that’s missing.
Given his skating ability and willingness to hit, I could see Sloan making a passable winger, but if Erskine’s still ailing, that implies Alzner will play on the backline. After Sloan’s performance the other night, I don’t see that happening.
My guess is that Nyls will play.
But does he take Gordon’s shift? Nyles isn’t a wing, and neither is Gordon, and I can’t imagine BB’s going to displace Steckel, Feds, or Backstrom to get him in there. Nyles has played wing before, but not especially successfully.
by DrinkingPartner on May 6, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
True. I originally thought they might call up someone from Hershey, but they’ve already used some of their non-emergency call-ups (I forget the number you start with and finish with, but I believe we’ve used like 1/3 – someone will probably know the actual number).
Nyls wasn’t a good wing when he played with Backstrom and Ovechkin, but he’s not a useless player. My feeling is that Gordo will probably take all the draws and will take the defensive zone coverage responsibilities, while Nylander will probably carry the puck more often on the breakouts and in the zone.
I actually think this could be really, really interesting. Nylander, despite how much we rip on him, is still a very talented player with amazing puckhandling skills and vision. If he gets out there against the wrong line, I could see him setting up a defenseman for a point shot and Clark deflecting it in, or slamming home the rebound.
I originally thought they might call up someone from Hershey, but they’ve already used some of their non-emergency call-ups (I forget the number you start with and finish with, but I believe we’ve used like 1/3 – someone will probably know the actual number).
but assuming fehr is injured, wouldn’t the hershey player be an emergency call-up and not count against the total?
by Natty Bumppo on May 6, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
ahh…i knew i used a question mark for a reason. thanks.
by Natty Bumppo on May 6, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
wouldn’t necessarily mean we’d see a D up front. possible that we see semin and ovechkin double-shifting as they did on monday. leaves an extra D to matchup however bruce sees fit.
by Natty Bumppo on May 6, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Having a 7th defenseman is like having a 6th toe. It crowds up the shoe and you don’t really use it for anything. I’d much rather give a jersey to Nyls than another defenseman.
The only chance that you’d like to have an extra d-man is if one of the top PK guys gets a penalty, or if two defensemen go in the box simultaneously. Would you really want to double-shift Ovie or Semin just to have that security blanket?
after the go-around about AO’s ice time, i am not aching for another game of double-shifting, no. but we haven’t seen a D on the wing all season…seems more likely that BB would double-shift than play someone out of position.
by Natty Bumppo on May 6, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
I’ll be amused to see what BB does here. He is so overtly supertitious that I wonder if he is willing to put Nyls back in, given how well the team has played since he was scratched. And frankly, that’s my main reason for preferring a Bear over him (although it’s also a matter of fit on the 4th line wing – only D would be a worse fit for Nyls).
for the record, Nyls had a pretty decent series v. PIT this year.
from the house that Red Jesus built
Thats not too shabby. however, do you think BB or other coaches keep track of this kind of stat?
by RedskinFan4Life on May 6, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Sure you can skate 7 D. You just play a little more situationally with your D.
And putting a D at wing in the middle of the playoffs is a not-gonna-happen. (Nor should it.) That’s not even on the table.
The Avs won a Stanley Cup with a defenseman (Eric Messier) getting a regular shift at forward and regularly shifted Jon Klemm from defense to forward. It happens as teams get depleted over the course of the playoffs.
Playing with 7 defensemen in a game is silly. It messes up the rotation, prevents defensive pairing cohesion, and essentially consigns that bottom three defensemen to playing so few minutes that they never get into the flow of the game. Plus, if you have an injured defenseman like the Caps, this means that you’re putting your 8th best defenseman on the bench, instead of a healthy forward. Combine this with the fact that playing forward is much more physically demanding, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster if the game goes to overtime.
The only way I could see 7 defensemen being effective is if you had someone (like maybe Andy Delmore from a few years back or Paul Coffey toward the end of his career) who was an outstanding asset on the PP, but godawful on the PK and 5-5. And if your team needs that kind of help, you’re probably hosed anyway.
Yeah but those guys had all done that before, if memory serves. No one on the WSH roster has.
The other reason to dress a 7th D is if you’re concerned about the health of one of the guys in your top six. I don’t think WSH is, but we’d be the last to know.
Yeah, I guess you could, if you’re worried about the D-man, but then isn’t that what Feds is for? In that case, I guess the question is: “Is Tyler Sloan/Karl Alzner a better 5/6 defenseman than Michael Nylander is a #4 center?” The answer to that might surprise you.
Both Klemm and Mess had played some up front, but neither had as much experience as Fedorov has as a defenseman.
Anyhow, the point is now moot, with Nylander playing. The real question will be: what happens if Nylander sucks and we lose?
. . . and gets an assist on Clark’s first of the playoffs. :)
by D'ohboy on May 6, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think what GOD is saying is that BB will mix his lines up a bunch, double-shift AO and Semin from time to time, and stay away from simply naming four lines and then rolling them all game long.
Makes sense to me. Try to keep Bylsma guessing, and hopefully get more of a favorable matchup from time to time.
I need a little education
they have the literal home ice advantage of having the last line change.
I understand the rule of how the home team gets the last line change. What I don’t see as to how this is advantageous?? Line changes happen frequently, so where does the supposed positive occur? If the home team changes their line, why doesn’t the visiting team just change their line as well?
Can anyone explain this strategic part of the game for me?
by RedskinFan4Life on May 6, 2009 11:03 AM EDT reply actions
Because the home team gets the last change, they get to pick what line they have matched against the visiting team for the faceoff. The visiting team can’t change once the home team line comes out. They can change after the faceoff, sure, but that’s not terribly easy to do a lot of the time. It is thought to give the home team a momentary advantage from the time of the faceoff until the next line change.
Not the end all/be all advantage out there, but it helps if you like matching lines. Consider that most lines play about 40 seconds before changing. Most goals are scored when a line has been on the ice for less than 40 seconds as well.
With all that being the case, every stoppage of play you have the ability to create a line advantage for yourself for the fist shift after the stoppage. Any of those advanatages has the ability to score in that short period of time.
by HateOffSeason on May 6, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s during a face-off where this rule applies. Once Pittsburgh has picked their group for the faceoff, Boudreau can then send who he wants for that faceoff.
Yes, Pittsburgh can immediately change “on the fly” if it wants to, but it’s not always easy or smart to change lines mid-play. Espcially if Bruce picked the right guys and we have pinned them in their zone!
The keyboard is mightier.
And this will be key to try and snap Malkin out of his funk. He started shooting the puck last game (-2 aside), and if given a favorable matchup, he’s sure to put a couple home.
We've got a goalie who's playing pretty good right now, while you've got one who can't get onto the ice without falling on his ass.
by Bald Pollack on May 6, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
True, but they weren’t matching up against Malkin in game 2. In Malkin’s defense, he’s not exactly playing with great linemates right now, with the broken Peter Sykora and Ruslan Fedotenko on his wings. He’s losing lots of faceoffs, so he’s spending much of his shift chasing the puck around. If the Caps can keep him frustrated like this, I don’t see Crosby winning this series on his own.
Sorry, should have amplified it to mean D pairings against Malkin. Poti and Juice have been attached at either hip the first 2 games.
We've got a goalie who's playing pretty good right now, while you've got one who can't get onto the ice without falling on his ass.
Totally. I just wonder how much of Malkin’s disappearance is because he’s forced to do so much on that line. Malkin+a wingless Sykora+Fedotenko doesn’t exactly strike fear into my heart. This is why I was so firm in my belief that the Caps’ top-6 forwards are better than the Pens’.
For example: In WSH the Caps sent out David Steckel just about every time the Pens sent out Crosby. Steckel dominated him on the faceoff dot (80-20 percentish) and Crosby didn’t score an even-strength goal against Steckel/his line, etc. The Pens will make sure that when the Caps put out Steckel, that they don’t put out Crosby. And they can do that because they have the last change before the faceoff.
One way to combat this is to simply have Gordon and Steckel take every faceoff. It sounds ridiculous, but it’s in the realm of feasible. If they lose their draws, they’re good enough defensively to compensate, and they can change immediately if they win the faceoff.
Ridiculous? Yes. Improbable? Yes. Batshit Insane? Yes.
Will it work? Oh yeah.
by DrinkingPartner on May 6, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
lol i like that plan of course, i’ve never been a rational person
by RedskinFan4Life on May 6, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
The craziest thing about it is that it’s really not that unreasonable. It is asking a lot from Gordon and Steckel, but, unless things go terribly wrong, you’re basically asking them for a 5-10 second double-shift. That should be downright reasonable given their conditioning.
by DrinkingPartner on May 6, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s contingent on them getting off the ice after the draw. What if they lose it and get hemmed in their own zone?
Who would you rather have playing defensive Center than those 2?
by DrinkingPartner on May 6, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Nobody, but I also wouldn’t want to smoke the crap out of them, either. What if you get a penalty that shift? Then you’re hosed.
It just means that Laich and Backstrom start the PK. Stecks and Gordon are a duo on the PK, too.
by DrinkingPartner on May 6, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
?
ahhh, thanks, I see the picture clearer now. i can see where the advantage comes at the faceoffs. sure, winning faceoffs is a part of the overall game plan. look at Backstrom vs. Crosby (or was it Steckel?)
Thanks everyone….
by RedskinFan4Life on May 6, 2009 11:08 AM EDT reply actions
So the Caps have been lucky to win...
The Pens have dominated for long stretches – Varly is standing on his head – there’s no one but Crosby scoring – blah blah blah. I’m not suggesting that these aren’t relevant but – this is the playoffs. Teams gel at the right time, get extraordinary efforts from seemingly nowhere- it happens.
You make your own breaks – as New York found out, Henrik wasn’t their sole salvation. Nor is Varly for the Caps. But to suggest that Varly is the sole reason the Caps are up 2-0 is misleading. You can’t base it on the shot totals. It’s the personnel – if the Pens are playing a great transition game but can’t bury the 2 on 1’s, it’s a skill problem, IMO. We know the Caps play a higher risk game prone to odd man rushes – it’s going to happen.
I’m not buying that the games could have gone either way – I’m just not buying it.
The Caps are in their heads – from the time they came back 3-0, they buried themselves in MAF’s little brain.
The intangibles are playing themselves out in the Caps’ favor, surely. But is anyone surprised? I’m a little surprised the Caps are up 2-0, but I think it came relatively easy for them: they played their game, and confidently in front of a scorchingly hot goalie. It’s a recipe for success.
And seriously, MAF is good, but he’s not Lundqvist and the Pens D isn’t the Rags D. Getting the Rags first is potentially the best thing that could’ve happened in the 1st round. We’ve already beaten the best goalie in the playoffs, IMO.
by DrinkingPartner on May 6, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that the Caps are playing well enough to win, seem to have gelled at the right time, are getting timely goals, are making their own luck, etc. But let’s be real: if Varly isn’t outplaying MAF in this series, the Caps aren’t up 2-0. The Caps have given up way more odd-man rushes and power plays than they’ve gotten and Varly has made some absolutely incredible saves. They have the better goalie and he is backstopping the Caps to win, but the Non-Crosby Pens are probably going to get out of their scoring funk if they keep getting golden opportunities. Varly is going to have to be huge no matter what, but the Caps can play better defensively and possess the puck more to make life easier on him.
The Caps need to play better, but 2-0 is 2-0. They cannot let up or forget the lesson from round 1 when the shoe was on the other foot.
And when that happens...
What happens when Semin/Green/Laich find their scoring touch? It goes both ways.
I think this is what happens tonight: the Pens are desperate but the Caps are so pumped over that dirty bastard Kunitz’ antics, the Pens crying about raining hats, curved sticks, etc., they f—-ing crush them tonight in front of their home crowd and go up 3-0.
Time to step on some necks.
That’s what I’m saying – if the Caps play better (lookin at you, Semin/Green/Backstrom/etc.), they will likely win the series. All I am saying is that 2-0 doesn’t mean they don’t have a lot of work to do.
I hope you are right about tonight, I’m ready to see our boys show no mercy and come out even more driven for this game. NYR imploded when they started complaining about everything, hopefully the same will happen to the Pens.
No Cap has worse than a minus-one rating (and seven are at pus-two)
The only “pus-two” are Crosby and Malkin
If you've read this far...seek help.
Ewww
That’s yucky. Peerless – read your write-up/progosto today, citing Malkin’s awesome home ice production – do you think DB will be focusing on those matchups to spring him, as JP implies? What does Boudreau do to counter?
If Bylsma wants to escape the 21-39-10 line, well, you can take that a little too far, too. Does he want the Malkin line having to play defense against the Fedorov line or the Backstrom line? That could open up opportunities at the other end for Ovechkin or, perhaps more important, Semin. Not that Malkin is a bad defensive player — he’s quite adept. But his linemates? That’s another consideration.
If you've read this far...seek help.
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Southeast Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida
|
54 | 26 | 17 | 11 | 63 |
|
Washington
|
54 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 61 |
|
Winnipeg
|
57 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 58 |
|
Tampa Bay
|
54 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 54 |
|
Carolina
|
56 | 20 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
(updated 2.12.2012 at 8:46 AM EST)
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